*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)

[Don't Toews Me]

The Quiet Transformation of Occupied Ukraine

Away from the frontlines, Russia cements its conquest.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Russia ceremonially annexed four Ukrainian oblasts—Donetsk and Luhansk in the east of the country and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south—in September 2022, although its military is not in full control of any of these provinces. Since then, Russian officials have transformed the governance of the areas under its control, holding sham elections last September and appointing pro-Moscow officials at every level. An army of technocrats is overseeing the complete absorption of these territories, aligning their laws, regulations, and tax and banking systems with Russia, and getting rid of any traces of institutional ties to Ukraine. A nominal transition period runs until January 2026, by which time the Kremlin expects Russian legal, judicial, and political systems to be fully in force in what it calls the “New Regions.”
This administrative occupation is less well known than the violence and human rights abuses that accompany it. But Russia’s war in Ukraine extends well beyond its ruthless missile and drone strikes, its legions of soldiers, and its bellicose rhetoric. In occupied Ukraine, bureaucrats have been effective at enforcing the compliance of locals. Even as some people resist, authorities impose Russian education, cultural indoctrination, and economic and legal systems to rope these lands ever more tightly to Russia. The longer Russia occupies these territories, the harder it will be for Ukraine to get them back.

In conquered Ukrainian towns such as Melitopol or Mariupol, Russia is slowly obliterating every visual reminder of Ukraine. In the first weeks of the war, Russian troops pulled down Ukrainian tridents and destroyed monuments that commemorated the Soviet-induced famine—known as the Holodomor—that killed millions of Ukrainians in the 1930s. They have painted over Ukrainian colors—blue and yellow—everywhere with Russia's red and blue. Russia aims to reverse completely the Ukrainianization and “decommunization” campaigns that swept through the region after 2014. A May 2015 law ordered the removal of all Soviet and communist symbols and statues and replaced tens of thousands of Soviet-era names of towns and streets. During the campaign, the Ukrainian authorities knocked down over 1,000 statues of Lenin across the country. Now, the Russians are putting them back up.
Streets have been obsessively renamed. In Mariupol, Freedom Square has once again become Lenin Square. Meotida Boulevard, a devastated street in the heart of the city’s Greek community, has returned to its previous awkward Soviet-era name, 50th Anniversary of the October Revolution Street. University Street in Melitopol was changed to Darya Dugina Street, named for the far-right Russian activist and pundit who was killed by a car bomb in Moscow in August 2022. Street names also reflect the legacy of twentieth-century ideological battles. In Melitopol, Dmytro Dontsov Street, named for a Ukrainian political thinker of the 1930s with fascist views, now bears the name of Pavel Sudoplatov, an infamous Stalinist secret agent who helped murder Leo Trotsky.

https://twitter.com/gesine_weber/status/1747981875157622975

France has launched an "artillery coalition" with Ukraine.

In a nutshell:
- around 50 contributing states/ Ramstein Group
- five sub-clusters based on capacities
- aim: short-term support and building long-term air defence structures for Ukraine
- co-headed by France and US

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1748021938834841979

A local media outlet in the city of Ivanovo (where the Russian A-50 spy plane reportedly shot down by Ukraine was based) has released what it says are the names of eight crew members declared "missing"

It clarifies that the list is not final
Listed are the plane's captain Lt Col Vyacheslav Levchenko, navigator Maj M.A. Kvasov, Maj A.S. Shadrov, Capt D.A. Kutuzov, Capt M.S. Balyasnikov, Senior Lt A.I. Izmaylov, as well as two crew members named only as Maryganov and Karpov

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1748019705544114226

Much of Sevastopol now without electricity. Kremlin discovering that they aren’t the only ones who can play the energy infrastructure game.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

War in Ukraine Drains Nearly Half of Accessible Russian Reserves

Russia’s government has tapped almost half of the national wealth fund’s available reserves to shield the economy against the fallout from its almost two-year war in Ukraine, leaving it vulnerable to future shocks.

www.bloomberg.com

Russia’s government has tapped almost half of the national wealth fund’s available reserves to shield the economy against the fallout from its almost two-year war in Ukraine, leaving it vulnerable to future shocks.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1747917701022974017

The Central Bank of Russia has increased its interest rate by 1 per cent to a new base rate of 16 per cent. This is the fifth increase since the current cycle of rises began in July 2023, when the base rate was set at 6.5 per cent.

The rise has been lower than previous ones. Russian inflation continued to accelerate towards the end of 2023, rising to 7.5 per cent year-on-year in November, up from 6.7 per cent in October. Overall, inflation for 2023 is estimated to be 7.4 per cent by Russia’s statistics service, nearly double the Central Bank’s target.

Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine is highly likely to negatively impact the outlook for the Russian economy. Imports have risen faster than exports, likely contributing to the rouble depreciating since the start of the war - highly likely a driver of inflation. As Russia ramps up its defence spending at the cost of other areas, the risk of the Russian economy overheating remains likely.

Thread on the Black Sea: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1748011703923585417

Opening up Black Sea exports was clearly Ukraine’s greatest strategic success since the liberation of Kherson in fall of 2022

It is now clear how this was achieved - via development of credible threats against Russian Black Sea shipping

With the concerted effort by the SBU with the participation of the Ukrainian Navy (and later GUR) since mid 2022, Ukraine was able to develop more and more capable maritime drones that showed their capabilities against Russian military ships and land infrastructure
It is interesting to see how strategically they are thinking about the development of capabilities of these drones:

"We want to decompose a large warship into its functions - air defense, weapons, protection - and put these weapons on several drones," Hunter (SBU) explains.
"SeaBaby is no longer just a naval drone, but a multi-purpose platform that the SBU actively uses today for various tasks, including for attacks on the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation ," Malyuk (head of SBu) adds.
The strategy developed in July after Russia’s pullout of the Black Sea Corridor initiative was to send a “clear signal [to Russia] that there are no places in the Black Sea where its ships would be beyond the reach of the Armed Forces”
“They decided to solve the first problem by showing Russia the vulnerability of its own ports”
On Aug 4 and 5, a new drone Mamai hit an amphibious ship and tanker in the port of Novorossiysk, the heart of Russian maritime trade
“Ukraine hit Russia in its most sensitive pain point at sea. Thus, Russia received a direct message that the war with the ports could be mutual”
"One must understand that any excesses at sea are not profitable for the Russians either. This immediately leads to an increase in the price of insurance and freight. For global insurance companies, the entire Black Sea is one region”
“And if something happens in Odessa or Novorossiysk, the cost of insurance increases in the entire region at the same time," explains Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Vaskov.
“Novorossiysk is also a huge oil transshipment. It is through this port that oil giants from the USA export Kazakh oil. This is where the "grey" export of Russian oil takes place under the guise of other brands”
“Ukraine's game was played at very high stakes, the country's leadership received "warnings" from partners at all levels. But this game worked. Russia eased the pressure, and on August 10, Ukraine was able to announce its own temporary sea corridor, without Moscow.”
Key lesson from this crucial episode? The only strategy that works with Russia is a threat of symmetric retaliation against their critical infrastructure. “Hit our ships and ports and we will hit yours”

Source of quotes: https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/01/1/7435326/

Ukraine reportedly behind oil depot attack in Russia – DW – 01/18/2024

p.dw.com

Ukraine was responsible for an attack on an oil depot in northern Russia, a source told the AFP news agency on Thursday.

Ukrainian media also reported that the overnight attack was part of a special operation by Kyiv.

Russia earlier reported an attack in the Leningrad region, bordering Finland, that it blamed on Ukrainian forces.

Attacks on Russian territory are not uncommon in regions bordering Ukraine like Belgorod, but attacks further norther are rare.

Ukraine typically does not officially claim responsibility for attacks carried out within Russia's borders.

Ukraine detains Russian spy over toxic site plot – DW – 01/18/2024

p.dw.com

Cyber units from Ukraine's SBU domestic security service on Thursday said they had detained a Russian agent who was "spying for the enemy" in the Odesa region.

The suspect was tasked with identifying and providing the aggressor with the coordinates of sites where toxic substances are stored, including pesticide depots.

To collect the information, the SBU said the perpetrator had started working as a taxi driver and, under the pretext of transporting passengers, recorded the locations of the targets.

The suspect is accused of high treason committed under martial law and faces life imprisonment.

Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine

The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive…

ecfr.eu

Summary​

• Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a war of attrition – which on current projections Russia is set to win.
• Ukraine can only achieve its war aims if it moves to a war of manoeuvre; without this, it cannot regain its lost territory.
• Western supplies and efforts at defence-industrial consolidation are failing to provide Ukraine with the replacement armaments it needs to survive the war of attrition, let along switch to manoeuvre warfare.
• The West and Europeans in particular need to overhaul their financial regulations and create economies of scale to radically stimulate the production of drones, ammunition, armoured fighting vehicles, and more.
• Only if they carefully absorb the lessons learned from this war will Europeans be ready for the types of great power confrontation that are becoming more likely in the 21st century

https://twitter.com/mgordonwsj/status/1747996897971720292

Russia sent the US a confidential paper in late December, rebuffing Washington's offer to renew an arms control dialogue

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine is being forced into a new era of drone warfare as its basic models succumb to Russian jamming

Ukriane uses civilian-grade drones to fight Russia, but Russia's growing electronic warfare powers means Ukraine has to find more powerful models.

www.yahoo.com

A Ukrainian drone operator and an expert described the situation to Business Insider.

They said Russia improved its jamming and spoofing equipment, making those cheaper drones more likely to fail.

Cmdr. Vitaliy Kryukov, a loitering-munition commander for Ukraine's elite Adam Tactical Group, said he believes basic drones will soon be obsolete.

Civilian-grade gear, he said, would have little worth without major software and hardware improvements to extend their range and resist jamming.

Their effectiveness is "significantly dropping" as Russia's electromagnetic warfare systems get more powerful, he said.
Drones have been a hallmark of the war in Ukraine, with both sides using them to attack, to surveil, and to target more accurately.

Ukraine relied more heavily on the kind of drones ordinary people buy to record weddings or vacations, said James Patton Rogers, a drone expert at the Cornell Brooks Tech Policy Institute.

Ukrainian soldiers prize the drones highly, and have gone to great lengths to raise money for more through crowdfunding.

Rogers agreed with Krykuov's assessment that the cheap drones were waning in effectiveness, a "worrying" development given how much they are relied on.

Ukraine has also been leaning even more on offensive drones as it struggles to find ammo for its heavy weapons.

Another problem is that many of its drones come from China, which has restricted Ukraine's ability to access its products.

Those challenges, Rogers said, prompted Ukraine to prepare.

Drone innovation from both sides led to what Rogers called a "cat and mouse game of drone offense and defenses."
Ukraine is increasingly making more advanced drones for itself.

Rogers described it as a fragmented industry, with drones and components made in small sites across the country.
Rogers said "there appears to be a different drone manufacturing hub in almost every town or city across Ukraine."

This includes ones said to be jamming-resistant, as well as autonomous, AI-powered drones that carry bombs.

Neither country will stop using civilian drones completely, Rogers said. Ukraine instead will increasingly upgrade them or use parts to create new drones.
He said Ukraine has an "innovative startup hotbed of a drone industry" and a growing expertise in drone production that can give it powerful battlefield abilities.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed a million extra drones would be made in Ukraine in 2024.

Kryukov said civilian drones with heavy upgrades were effective enough on the front lines for now, as Ukraine works to boost its arsenal.

He said Ukraine's drone makers are "working hard. They are not sleeping."

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747964527319081459

An interesting long post from "Marines of Sevastopol" Russian channel going over drone production in Russia, claiming that although deliveries of FPVs increased massively since summer, the quality went down, and innovation is lacking due to the heavily centralised production process.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1747975629448851786

Russia's "Stratim" Design Bureau claims to be working on a "Falcon", an "inexpensive analogue of the jet-powered Shahed drone" with a range of up to 350km that is EW-resistant and "navigates to target via machine vision". Tests "should be" completed in the first half of 2024.

Video: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747922120812744809

Fighters of the 25th Assault Battalion of the 47th Mechanised Brigade talk about their experience defending Avdiivka.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Situation Report: Long-Range Drone Strikes Expand To St. Petersburg

A domestically produced long-range drone design struck the Russian city, as Ukraine promises a “new phase” in the conflict.

www.thedrive.com

Ukraine launched a long-range drone strike against Russia’s second largest city, St. Petersburg, overnight, where the target was reportedly an oil terminal. An unnamed Ukrainian military source said that the attack kicked off a “new phase” in the conflict, which looks like it will rely heavily on the country’s recently developed long-range one-way attack drones.
Citing a Ukrainian intelligence source, the Ukrainska Pravda reported that the drone attack was undertaken by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, or GUR.

“This is a Defense Intelligence operation involving modern Ukrainian assets. Data collection continues, and there are confirmed strikes on targets,” the source told the newspaper.

I believe this is video of that drone incident: https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1748077454634140140

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1748093579312898343

Turns out, approximately 2500 Russian scientists - many from the most prestigious universities like MIPT, HSE, Skolkovo, ITMO, SPSU and MSU - have left Russia since the start of the Ukraine invasion.

Armor Experts Breakdown Video Of Ukrainian M2 Bradley Mauling Russian T-90M Tank

Veteran armor experts explain the viral video showing Russia's top tank in Ukraine getting torn-up by a Bradley Fighting Vehicle.

www.thedrive.com

An armor expert with direct knowledge of the Bradley and a Bradley master gunner told us that the videos highlight both the capabilities of the weapon and the skill of its crew.

“The Bradley Fighting Vehicle is very survivable, very maneuverable,” said the armor expert, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“It looks like this crew has had a lot of training as well as experience and is very comfortable with the Bradley and able to quickly make decisions under extreme stress when confronting a tank knowing that they're going to have to engage it. And it looks like this crew knew that they could disable the T-90 tank as its rear end was shown to them.”

The “well-trained crew didn't panic under fire, making correct decisions,” the armor expert expounded. “A well-trained gunner aimed their gun in the correct manner, not at the top of the turret so much as the rear of the tank knowing that its fuel tanks and obviously the engine itself are right there. They knew if they chewed it up fast enough, they’d be able to quickly disable the tank and there's nothing the crew can do. They'll have to abandon the tank or worst case scenario, they keep firing rounds and something happens where there's a cascading effect that leads to an explosion within the turret."

“They inflicted enough damage to the tank to make the crew deploy a defensive smoke grenade array and then back up and abandon the vehicle,” he said. “What likely happened is they damaged the tank’s various sights and weapons systems, as well as some other penetrations on the turret and hull. Might have taken out some crew as well. Why I think they damaged the sights is due to the tank crew losing orientation while they were driving away, with the turret spinning and then hitting a tree in the other video.”

Another interesting aspect of this battle is that the Ukrainian Bradley crew used its Bushmaster to fight the T-90 instead of its Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) anti-tank missile system.

"The training for fighting tanks is generally to use the TOW," said the armor expert. "Not sure why the didn't use it here, unless they were out."

"The 25mm is when you have no other option," the armor expert explained.
He added that, "really, there is no 25mm official training [for encounters like these], to prevent the bad habit of crews believing they will have a high probability of destroying a tank." Still, in these situations, the object is to go for the mission systems, not the hull, which appears to be what happened in this situation.

"It is the experience of the Bradley commander to shoot the tank's gun tube, optics and engine," the armor expert told us. This would cause a 'mission kill' and leave the tank unusable, although possibly not destroyed.

In addition to highlighting what the Bradley and a well-trained crew can bring to the table, the videos also displayed the deficiencies of Russia’s armor troops, even operating its most capable main battle tank available for deployment.

“It looks like a T-90 crew panicked and didn't know what, to do,” said the armor expert. “It looks like they were just trying to get the hell out of there without turning the turret toward the Bradley Fighting Vehicle.”

The reason, he posited, “is most likely because the best tankers that Russians have are all dead because of the failed initial invasion, where the best units were destroyed so they are sending replacements who are very well undertrained and poorly led.”

https://twitter.com/elisabethmalom1/status/1748088043938996330

"I asked Zelenskyy what his need was annually. He said if you’re talking about small drones, it’s at least 3 million to 5 million, and #Ukraine can produce about 1 million." - Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of Lithuania's national security committee.

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin's War, Week 99. Not All Battlefields Are in Ukraine

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/01/19/putins-war-week-99-n2168873

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Not good if true: https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1748429465942704251?s=46&t=TUBPHx8mOIq5hS31kSfSvQ

Yuriy Butusov and @Deepstate_UA both warn that the situation in Avdiivka has worsened and Russian forces have advanced.

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1748427280785834465

Ukraine’s Deep State war monitors say the Russians have broken into the southern part of Avdiivka proper, trying to dig in. This Ukrainian stronghold outside Donetsk is the main battleground of this war as it stands now.

CNN video segment from near Avdiivka: https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1748436501917044967

Inside the battle for Avdiivka: Ukrainians trying to hold on in the face of massive (and very costly) Russian assaults.

Video interview: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748480083990372669

A more personal and detailed interview with the crew of the Ukrainian Bradley which took on a russian T-90M. Also goes over using American-supplied Bradley IFVs in conditions of the Ukrainian winter

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1748362738336739798

Politics are back in Kyiv and Klitschko's playing them. Important to note he's also been criticized by civil society for infrastructure and beautification projects in Kyiv that many say should be put on hold during the war and the money for them instead used to back the troops.

EDF Colonel: Russian troops making progress when avoiding direct attacks

Russian forces have made some progress when attacking Ukrainian positions from the flanks rather than via direct assaults. However, their direct attacks have led to heavy losses and large-scale offensives cannot be carried out in several directions at the same time, said Col. Ants Kiviselg...

news.err.ee

Russian forces have made some progress when attacking Ukrainian positions from the flanks rather than via direct assaults. However, their direct attacks have led to heavy losses and large-scale offensives cannot be carried out in several directions at the same time, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces' (EDF) intelligence center.

Active fighting is taking place in the direction of Luhansk and several Russian assault units have suffered heavy losses there, said Col. Kiviselg at the Estonian Ministry of Defense's Friday press conference. These loss have resulted in desertions from some units, he added.

From a Ukrainian perspective, it is from this direction that a major wave of attacks is expected, though not before late January or early February, by which time the ground will have frozen.

At the same time, the concentration of forces in one place means that similar offensive activities are not expected in other directions, as there are simply not enough troops, Col. Kiviselg added.

On the Donetsk side, Russian troops are trying to cut through Ukraine's Avdiivka supply lines. It is there too that the Russians have also tried to carry out attacks with armored vehicles. However, have not been successful, the EDF colonel said.

However, Russian troops have had some success south of Marinka. The reason for this has been the avoidance of direct attacks where casualties are high, in favor of attacks from the flanks. "This requires well-trained and well-led units, fortunately there are not many of them in Russia, but this is one of the few cases," Col. Kiviselg said.

In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian troops have been attacking the Kherson region. However, that activity has decreased. The reason in that case is that it is mainly marines fighting there and airborne units are reluctant to go on the offensive, Col. Kiviselg said.

On the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, the bridgeheads set up by Ukraine are still holding, despite continued attacks from Russian forces. However, the freezing of the river means both the Ukrainians and Russians face problems in getting supplies to their troops there.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

EU agreement on Ukraine aid could be reached in February – Breton in Vilnius

Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė and visiting European Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton say the...

www.lrt.lt

Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė and visiting European Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton say they hope that the European Council will agree on a support package for Ukraine in early February, despite opposition from Hungary.

West must support Ukraine with ‘whatever it takes’ to deter Russia – Lithuanian FM in Davos

The West must change the message it sends to Russia from supporting Ukraine for “as long as it takes” to “whatever it ta...

www.lrt.lt

According to the Lithuanian foreign minister, the Western countries must ask themselves “What kind of message are we sending to Putin?”

“Are we deterring or are we inviting? And this is where the anxiety of the Baltic states and most likely Poland comes from. The problem is that we don’t feel that Putin is deterred enough,” he said.

Putin could attack NATO in ‘5 to 8 years,’ German defense minister warns

Europe sounds the alarm amid growing concern that the Russian president’s veiled threats against the military alliance could turn real.

www.politico.eu

An increasingly belligerent Russian President Vladimir Putin could attack the NATO military alliance in less than a decade, Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned.

"We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day ... so we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day," Pistorius told German outlet Der Tagesspiegel in an interview published Friday.

While a Russian attack is not likely "for now," the minister added: "Our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible."

Nato prepares for Putin blitzkrieg in the Baltics

Lieutenant General Jürgen-Joachim von Sandrart argues that Nato is on its way to establishing a credible wall of deterrence

www.thetimes.co.uk

The Putin regime has not only established a formidable mobilisation machine and put its defence industry on a war footing. It has also vowed to create new bases and units in its western military district, next to Nato’s eastern frontiers.
Von Sandrart, the commander of the alliance’s Multinational Corps Northeast, its only headquarters to the east of what used to be the Iron Curtain, said there was every sign that Moscow was serious about bolstering these forces.
“You can see in all the public media that there are clear statements on this. We are monitoring this closely,” Von Sandrart said. “There’s no doubt that it’s the case.”
Nato, the general argues, faces a dilemma. Its capacities are superior to Russia’s in almost every domain: troop numbers, technology, economic power.
Now that Finland has joined the alliance and Sweden is expected to do so in the coming months, it holds the upper hand over the sea, skies and coastlines of the Baltic region.
Yet bringing these factors to bear would take time and money, both of which are in short supply. This means that in a battle for northeast Europe’s front states, Moscow would hold a number of potentially decisive trump cards.
The first is geography. He said: “We are standing with the Russian border to the east, with a depth between 100 and 350km, and with our backs to the Baltic sea.
“The axes of movement are in general all advantageous for Russia, from east to west, and our axis of movement for reinforcement and supply is on the land side primarily from south to north through the Suwalki Gap, or through the sea lines of communication.”
Added to this, in von Sandrart’s view, are another five advantages. Russia would hold the initiative, deciding “when, how, where and why” to pursue a war. It does not clearly distinguish between peace, war and the phases in between.
Unlike Nato, it is indifferent to losses. Russia is a single country with an autocratic chain of command “from the foxholes all the way up to the president”, at least in theory.

The final issue is logistics. Von Sandrart said: “Russia’s infrastructure for the rapid deployment of forces over roads, railways and the air from any part of its geography to its borders is ready.
“We’ve seen in Ukraine that the deployment to the border can happen swiftly and without delay. Russia’s dilemma begins when they have to transition into an attack operation without recourse to their own infrastructure and have to win territory. One should always bear this in mind.”
Yet the general is not a pessimist. He argues that Nato is on its way to closing this “opportunity gap” and establishing a credible wall of deterrence. Last year the alliance began implementing a new raft of detailed defence plans and most of its members are rearming.
He said: “Here I can experience almost every month how Nato keeps intensifying and further optimising these preparations. And I’m sure it will bring them to a successful conclusion.
“But if [deterrence] that doesn’t work… then we have to be set up in such a way that we can defend swiftly and victoriously. And this war against Russia cannot lead to a situation like the situation in Ukraine, where Russia succeeds through an initial operation in gaining significant territory that we can then only win back with great effort.
“Our weakness is Russia’s strength. Our readiness prevents war. If we would not be ready, we would increase the risk to get a war imposed against our will.”
Von Sandrart argues that Nato’s historic difficulties in co-ordinating the armed forces of more than 30 countries, from different languages and mutually incompatible computer systems to non-standardised artillery shells, are being ironed out through continual exercises and improved planning.
“The fact that we are all a bit different should be understood less as a weakness than as a strength,” he said.
The general also said there was a growing realisation that deterring a Russian attack on Nato soil was not just a job for soldiers, but a task for the “whole of society”.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Some political leaders are named in this piece, however, some of the info is quite relevant and we can avoid any political discussion:

National security adviser Jake Sullivan and the Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the lawmakers that Ukraine will run out of certain air defense and artillery capabilities in the coming weeks, according to the people familiar with the meeting.

In Wednesday’s meeting at the White House, Sullivan and Haines gave the top congressional leaders a classified time frame for when Ukraine’s key military resources will be significantly depleted, and a detailed assessment of the current dynamics on the battlefield, the two people familiar with the meeting said.

While Sullivan did not predict an outright imminent victory for Russia, a White House official said, he emphasized that Ukraine’s position would grow more difficult over the course of the year by offering specific date ranges of when the country will run low on various capabilities in the short-term.

Sullivan and Haines predicted overall that, without more U.S. military aid, Ukrainian forces could only continue fighting the Russians for weeks, maybe months, according to the people familiar with the meeting.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1748657065906561252

The majority or all of certain critical types of munitions for Ukraine comes from the US. Europe can’t replace these in the short-term. Without another aid package, Ukraine will struggle to defend its territory and infrastructure.

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1748449554347745432

It’s an open secret in Berlin: Defense Minister Boris Pistorius personally wants to deliver #TaurusForUkraine but is being blocked by @Bundeskanzler Scholz.

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1748648814821429317

In our last interview with him, Zelensky intimated that it is not just Scholz doing the blocking. The inference I made - might be wrong, wasn’t able to ask follow up - was that US also involved.

Video: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1748943717992628713

A night of presumed Ukrainian drone strikes across Russia. Russian media report that the Ust Luga oil and gas port near St Petersburg is on fire, and a hit on a plant making air-defense systems in Tula. Footage from Russian Telegram channels.

‘Active defence’: how Ukraine plans to survive 2024

After its summer counteroffensive ended in failure, Kyiv is shifting to a new strategy as it prepares itself for a third year of war

www.ft.com

“I’m going to tell you the truth,” says Vanya, a Ukrainian soldier serving in a reconnaissance unit fighting alongside marines on the east bank of the Dnipro river in southern Ukraine. “The situation is deplorable.”
His damning assessment follows months of daring raids into enemy territory by Ukrainian forces last autumn to establish a tenuous bridgehead deep in the southern Kherson region. Under the cover of darkness, troops zipped across the river to inflict damage on Russian units and provide one of few bright spots since Ukraine’s much-vaunted summer counteroffensive ended in failure.
But the unit’s grip on the Dnipro foothold, near the village of Krynky, is slipping. Their positions on marshy terrain and in old enemy trenches are shallow and prone to flooding or filled with the rotting corpses of Russian fighters. Freezing cold temperatures also bite, slowing down operations and making it impossible to rest.
Ukrainian troops are suffering heavy casualties here, laments Vanya, declining to give specifics, citing military secrecy. The Russians, he adds, have an advantage of at least four or five soldiers to every one Ukrainian.
Part of the problem is logistical. Because the Ukrainians must cross the river in small vessels to remain undetected and more nimble, they are not able to transport larger, more deadly weapons. “Everything we take is what we can carry ourselves,” Vanya says. “There are at most some types of grenade launchers. In a very rare case, I saw one heavy machine gun brought across.”
The end goal was to create a position from which the Ukrainian army could launch new attacks deeper into Russian-controlled territory. That is looking less likely by the day, Vanya says. In recent weeks, Russian military bloggers and western analysts say that Russian forces have retaken some of the positions on the eastern bank.
Asked whether Ukraine can hold its base there long-term, Vanya was blunt. “Of course not,” he says. “The fact is that the Marine Corps was unable to maintain the pace of the offensive and for sure lost the initiative a long time ago.”
Vanya now expects the troops to fall back to defensive positions on the Dnipro’s west bank — or risk suffering heavy losses among its strongest units.
But to what extent it should adopt a more secure defensive position in anticipation of a difficult third year of war is no longer a question just for those stationed on the Dnipro river, but for Ukraine’s entire military and its commander-in-chief.
As the second anniversary of Russia’s all-out invasion nears on February 24, Ukraine’s military prospects appear to be dimming. It has abandoned hopes of a swift victory and is instead girding itself for a drawn-out war. One western official working on Ukraine policy believes there is “little prospect of an operational breakthrough by either side in 2024” let alone in the next few months.

The western official says that a strategy of “active defence” — holding defensive lines but probing for weak spots to exploit coupled with long-range air strikes — would allow Ukraine to “build out its forces” this year and prepare for 2025, when a counteroffensive would have a better chance.
But several factors are likely to determine Ukraine’s fortunes. Chief among them is the uncertainty surrounding western military assistance, including munitions, which Ukraine is burning through. There are open questions about the west’s resolve and whether it can and will continue backing Ukraine in its fight — and, if it does, to what extent.

There are some reasons for Ukrainian forces to remain upbeat. Since it launched its offensive around Avdiivka in October, US intelligence estimates that the Russian military has suffered more than 13,000 casualties and over 220 combat vehicle losses, or the equivalent of six manoeuvre battalions.
Budanov says those figures have grown significantly in recent weeks but could not give exact numbers. However, the first western official involved in Ukraine policy suggests that in November 2023 Russia suffered an average of 1,000 dead and injured each day. Ukraine, the official adds, was in a “strong defensive position” around the industrial town that is home to a big coke plant that once powered the region’s metallurgical factories.
Another reason for Ukraine to increase focus on strengthening defences, suggest Ukrainian security officials speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues, is that Russia may be planning a large-scale offensive as early as summer.
Its goal would be to capture the remainder of the four regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — Putin claimed to have annexed in September 2022. In addition, the officials say, another attempt at Kharkiv or even Kyiv was not out of the question.
A newly declassified US intelligence assessment reviewed by the FT in December also notes that Putin’s ultimate goal in Ukraine of conquering the country and subjugating its people remains unchanged.
That explains why Russia is continuing its offensive operations in eastern Ukraine across multiple axes, particularly around Avdiivka, but also towards Lyman, and Kupiansk to the north-east, the document said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Kyrylo Budanov: the Ukrainian military spy chief who ‘likes the darkness’

General who has survived 10 assassination attempts keeps Russia guessing about his directorate’s reach and abilities

www.ft.com

Budanov was reluctant to offer an assessment of Ukraine’s current military operations, deferring to the army’s general staff.
But he warned that “it is not even conceivable to think that we can do without mobilisation” — echoing the top brass’s call for more recruits. “The shortage [of manpower] is palpable,” he said.
Zelenskyy has said his army chiefs asked him to mobilise about 400,000 to 500,000 new soldiers to replace those killed or wounded, and to rest those involved in the most intense fighting.

Turning to arms production, Budanov said Russia was expending more weapons and munitions than it can make, while struggling with quality control. “This is precisely what explains Russia’s search for weapons in other countries,” he said.
North Korea is Russia’s biggest arms supplier at present, Budanov said. “They did transfer a significant amount of artillery ammunition. This allowed Russia to breathe a little.” He added: “Without their help, the situation would have been catastrophic.”
But Russia would prefer not to rely on outside help. “This has always been considered beneath them, it’s an indignity,” Budanov explained.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748681037821919526

Ukrainian EW and drone specialist Serhii Flash estimates the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPVs to be around 30%, highly dependent on the unit. The issue of prioritisation, which Russians also spoke about extensively, seems to be similarly present in the Defence Forces.

Thread: https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1748821218944266721

Russian operations in the Kupiansk direction have continued with varying intensity for months.

Russian gains have been very limited, but this evening the Russians announced that they have taken the village of Krokhmalne. 1/6
Ukrainians have also reported continuous Russian attacks in the Synkivka area. Despite Russian efforts, they haven't been able to punch through Synkivka, which would be the shortest route to Kupiansk.

There's also no indication of Russians continuing far beyond Krokhmalne. 2/
Krokhmalne, a small village with only a handful of houses, is the first Ukrainian village the Russians have been able to capture anywhere in months.

It's worth noting that they actually re-captured it, as Ukraine liberated the village in autumn 2022 (and took some POWs too). 3/
Most likely this development does not bear greater significance and does not affect the general situation. Even though the Russians control the village, it doesn't actually open up any new avenues of approach. The slow grind on the fields will continue. 4/
Link to our interactive map, updated by our team at @Black_BirdGroup. Today we also observed and added some changes near Urozhaine, where the Russians have been making some very minor advances. 5/
Original Telegram source & geolocation here. 6/6
A correction: The few remaining blocks of Mariinka and Khromove were captured last month, so Krokhmalne is the first village fallen to the Russians in about a month.

Russians also have claimed that they captured Vesele, but I have not seen proof of this yet.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine drones hit St Petersburg gas terminal in Russia

An official in Kyiv tells the BBC the "special operation" is an economic blow to Russia.

www.bbc.com

An explosion at a major gas export terminal near the city of St Petersburg in Russia was carried out by Ukrainian drones, BBC News has been told.
The blast caused a large fire at the Ust-Luga terminal, but no injuries, Russian officials said.
An official source in Kyiv said the "special operation" of the SBU security service masterminded the attack, with drones that worked "on target".
Both Russia and Ukraine have used drones in the current conflict.
Russia launched its full-scale of invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, but has made little progress in recent months.
Regarding the explosion near St Petersburg, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko said a "high alert regime" was in place after the incident at the terminal of gas producer Novatek, in Ust-Luga on the Gulf of Finland. He shared a video of what appeared to be a large fire.
Novatek later announced that work at the terminal had been suspended, and said the fire was the result of "external influence" - without providing further details.
The Ukrainians say fuel processed at the plant was being used to supply Russian troops in their war against Ukraine and that this strike "significantly complicates" logistics for the military.
They also describe the attack as an economic blow to Russia, which exports fuel from the terminal.
Russia's Fontanka.ru has published video showing tankers moored close to where the fire is raging. It reports two drones were spotted approaching the city of St Petersburg at about 01:00 local time (22:00 GMT) but swerved sharply at the outskirts before heading for the coast and the Ust-Luga port.
An eyewitness is heard saying the ground shook beneath his feet with the explosions.
The Russian Telegram channel Mash quotes a source saying they heard two explosions before the fire. The channel says around 150 staff were evacuated from the terminal.
Another video - posted on Russian social media - appears to show huge balls of orange fire, a man's voice is heard referring to hearing the buzzing of a drone before the explosion.
Fontanka.ru, usually a reliable source, says flights in and out of St Petersburg had been grounded before the explosions, as a plan known as "Carpet" was put in place.

https://twitter.com/zakavkaza/status/1749059724216307749

Big win for Kyiv in the economic war with Russia if this attack has taken out Russia’s Ust-Luga LNG terminal & repairs take a while. And given winter gas buying in Europe is mostly over, the market costs should be much less than if Kyiv hit it in Nov/Dec

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1749119262927589508

Russian forces reported capturing the village of Krokhmalne in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. This was later confirmed by the spokesperson for Ukrainian Ground Forces Command, who said Ukrainian soldiers moved to better prepared reserve positions.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1749017739081957689

On 19 January 2024 the Ukrainian General Staff reported that there was a 27 per cent increase in Russian assaults on the front line over the previous day with 81 air strikes and 45 multiple rocket attacks.

Additional data from the Ukrainian General Staff comparing the 14-18 January 2024 period with the previous five-day period supports this uptick in Russian assaults. Over these five-day periods the number of military vehicle losses by Russia increased by 88 per cent and the number of Russian tank losses increased by 95 per cent. The number of Russian casualties over the same period also increased by 15 per cent.

This data points towards a steady increase in the intensity of Russian offensive activity across the front over the past two weeks. A key enabler for this is highly likely the freezing ground conditions, which allows cross-country movement of armoured vehicles.

Video from what appears to be Avdiivka: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749147942764581072

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1749037887297831327

The Norwegian Chief of Defence:

"We are running out of time"

"There's a window now that might last one, two, maybe three years"

"We don't know what will happen with Russia in three years time"

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1749046139301539939

The commander of the Russian Il-22, which was shot down over the Sea of Azov, died of shrapnel wounds. He was Major Viktor Klimov.

The plane was brought to the airfield by the co-pilot, who was also wounded.

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1749011209909576031

In an interview with Major General Christian Freuding (Head of the Planning and Command Staff & Head of the Situation Centre Ukraine / German MoD) with Welt am Sonntag, he discusses the long time needed to repair and maintain damaged Ukrainian Leopard 2A6 & Strv 122 .

According to him, the Ukrainians remove many usable components from the MBTs (probably due to a lack of spare parts) before they are handed over to the repair hubs in Germany or Lithuania.

He is therefore talking about “rebuilding” the tanks and not repairing or maintaining them, which, of course, takes a relatively long time.

The problem is to be solved by:
— Through better qualification of Ukrainian soldiers
— Through a more targeted supply of spare parts
— An intensive dialogue with the Ukrainians to get the vehicles to the maintenance hubs more quickly
The Major General also makes a clear statement in the direction of Russia & #Ukraine.

The modern Russian armed forces have been de facto destroyed. The well-trained units no longer exist, entire divisions have been destroyed. Nevertheless, Russia's imperialist impulse is unbroken. This makes it all the more important for us now to help Ukraine to victory.

 

[themeistersinger]

Baltic Nations to Build Defense Network Along Borders With Russia, Belarus - The Moscow Times

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have agreed to build a series of bunkers on their borders with Russia and Belarus to defend against their militaries in the event of an attack, Estonia’s Defense Ministry announced Friday.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s average soldier is 43. How can they keep Putin at bay?

Some volunteers who signed up at the beginning of the war with Russia are mentally and physically exhausted, and there is a lack of younger fighters to replace them

www.thetimes.co.uk

As the war in Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, the majority of troops holding back President Putin’s invading army are middle-aged men whose diminished physical capacities are complicating Kyiv’s military planning.
“The average age of a soldier in my battalion is 45,” said Dmytro Berlym, the commander of the 403rd battalion with Ukraine’s 32nd brigade, speaking near Kupiansk, a besieged town near the border with Russia. “At that age, it’s hard to fulfil tasks. For some, even carrying ammunition and body armour to the frontline positions is tough.” There was no influx of younger soldiers to shoulder the burden, and those doing the fighting kept dying, he added. “People are running out and the quality of reinforcements is getting lower and lower each time.”

In 2021, the average active-duty member of the US armed forces was 28. Last year, the average age of UK armed forces personnel was 31. There are no official figures available for the Ukrainian military but the average age of a soldier in Kyiv’s army is widely estimated to be about 43.
Serhiy Leshchenko, an adviser to President Zelensky’s chief of staff, said in November that he had heard “scary figures” about some brigades tasked with storming Russian positions where the average age was 54. “A member of an assault unit cannot go on an assault operation at 54 years of age,” he added. He said he had received the information from the commander of a national guard battalion in the Donbas region.
Although Ukraine has mobilised some civilians to fight, the initial wave of troops at the start of the war in 2022 was overwhelmingly made up of volunteers. These tended to be men in their forties or older with families, who cited a sense of duty for joining up. Many expected their brigades would soon be reinforced by younger recruits who would conduct the bulk of assault operations. Few believed the war would last long or that they would remain at the front for almost two years. Some admit to being close to total exhaustion, both physically and emotionally.
“I’m on the brink of a breakdown,” said a 50-year-old soldier recovering from shrapnel injuries in Kharkiv, a city in northeast Ukraine. “I joined up on the first day of the war, but I can’t take it any more. But when we get younger men joining us at the front, they often can’t handle it. We get hit with missiles, drones and white phosphorus. They lose their minds. They aren’t ready for it.” He said he had been ordered to return to the front as soon as possible and would have to walk miles to reach his unit’s positions. “I can’t let the guys down,” he said.

Even so, many of those at the front feel a sense of responsibility to shield the younger generation from the war. “I don’t want to see 20-year-olds fighting,” said Oleksandr Avanesov, 55, who wrote poetry in the trenches. He has a seven-year-old daughter and is still recovering from injuries suffered in a Russian bombing in the Donbas region in 2022. “These are the flowers of our nation,” he added. “They should have children and bring them up.”
Piddubnyak, the soldier whose unit was hindered in its dash for shelter by a slower, older comrade, agreed. He has two small children but believes his place is on the battlefield. “While there are still fortysomethings left, then they should fight. When there aren’t enough, then others will have to take over.”

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1749482451359981827

Belgium will provide Ukraine with €611 million in military aid in 2024 - Defense Minister Umerov.

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1749482761788797156

Russian forces are intensifying attacks near the Kharkiv-Luhansk oblast border.

Recent satellite imagery shows new artillery craters west of Tabivka. (Images JAN 12 vs JAN 21)

Russian forces were confirmed to have captured Krokhmalne (4.5 km southeast of Tabivka) around JAN 20.

North Korean Missiles Face Reality Check on Putin’s Battlefield

North Korea’s new arsenal of ballistic missiles is set for their first real-world test on the battlefield in Ukraine. But based on the success of US interceptor systems in that conflict, Kim Jong Un may be worried.

www.bloomberg.com

North Korea’s new arsenal of ballistic missiles is set for their first real-world test on the battlefield in Ukraine. But based on the success of US interceptor systems in that conflict, Kim Jong Un may be worried.
Burning through his stockpiles as the war in Ukraine nears the two-year mark, Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned to Kim to provide short-range ballistic missiles and more than 1 million rounds of artillery. The North Korean missiles sent so far are similar in size and flight dynamics to Russia’s Iskander series, weapons experts have said.
A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies showed that the US Patriot air defense system has so far been largely effective in countering Russia’s missiles. In June, when Russia tried to take out a Patriot battery protecting Kyiv, the system shot down all of the 34 Iskander and Kinzhal missiles Russia fired, CSIS said.
That’s a warning to Putin about the KN-23 and KN-24 missiles Kim is believed to be supplying. The systems are designed to be deployed quickly, maneuverable in flight and reliably hit targets with a degree of precision. That might not be enough.
“The Patriot missile defense system should be able to intercept North Korea’s short-range ballistic missiles, given its effectiveness against Russian Iskanders,” said Shaan Shaikh, a fellow in the Missile Defense Project at CSIS, a Washington-based think tank.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia’s relentless ‘meat assaults’ are wearing down outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian forces

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/europe/ukraine-weapons-avdiivka-russian-assault-intl-cmd/index.html

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1749697070317830499

Russian forces launched missiles at Kyiv and Kharkiv early Tuesday. According to preliminary reports, three people were killed, and others may be trapped under rubble.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1749703428878868605

The Ukrainian Air Force says it intercepted 0/4 S-300 / S-400, 15/15 Kh-101 / Kh-555 / Kh-55, 0/8 Kh-22, 5/11 Iskander-M, and 1/2 Kh-59 missiles Russia launched overnight.

Not good: https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1749706555564474545

Ukraine intercepted only about 50 pc of the missiles Russia fired today. That’s quite low in historical perspective. And suggests a) problems with air defence missile supply and/or b) better Russian strategies to get around defences.

CNN video segment from Ukraine: https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1749519849074639180

Ukraine’s ammo shortage becoming more difficult by the day. Around Bakhmut an M109 position we visited only got smoke rounds. The division commander says the current ratio is 10:1 in favor of the Russians. Still Ukrainian troops are holding on.

Ukraine war is ‘battle for ammunition’, says Nato chief

Kyiv’s troops forced to ration artillery rounds as Russia launches latest barrage

www.ft.com

Faced with dwindling supplies, Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline have told the Financial Times in recent days that they are forced to ration munitions while Russian troops step up their attacks.
“Indeed there is really not enough ammunition,” said a senior Ukrainian artillery brigade officer.
Ukraine went from firing 8,000 shells per day during its counteroffensive in the summer to just 2,000 in recent weeks, according to a platoon commander.

In Ukraine’s northeast, fears rise of second Russian occupation

For nearly a year after Ukraine liberated towns along the war-scarred road to Kupyansk in the northeast Kharkiv region, residents hardly whispered fears of a second Russian occupation. They are now speaking them aloud.
For months, Russia has pummeled Kupyansk, a strategic rail hub that it seized in early 2022 and that Ukraine retook seven months later. From positions east of the Oskil River, which bisects the city, Russia never fully lost sight of its target.
In recent months, Ukraine has urged civilians to evacuate — again — and not just from Kupyansk but also from dozens of villages to the west, a grim sign that Kyiv fears the Russians could push forward. On Saturday, they took control of the small settlement of Krokhmalne, southeast of the city, bringing them slightly closer to the river.
Although Kyiv has tried to minimize the importance of the loss, saying the village was home to only about five households before the war, the development and evacuation orders have spurred fears that Ukrainian troops are preparing to surrender even more ground.
“It’s very scary,” said Diana Shapovalova, 34, one of the last remaining gynecologists working in the area. “We are ready to evacuate. We have all our stuff packed. Our kids know they need to be ready.”
“We live in a dangerous place,” she added.

Pryimenko, 24, knows the horrors of occupation firsthand. Her family buried her father’s military documents near the lake in town, fearing Russian troops might find them and retaliate. Her neighbor’s home was looted. She fled in July 2022, afraid Russian soldiers might rape her. She did not return until a week after liberation, when a Russian attack from across the river killed her maternal grandmother.
It was on the trip home to bury her that she met a charming, redheaded dance-instructor-turned-soldier named Roman, who had helped free Hrushivka from Russian control. They married in March and he is now serving in the Donetsk region, in the same brigade as her father, while she stays home with her paternal grandparents.
Pryimenko said she doubts that Ukrainian forces would ever cede Kupyansk. Having relatives in the military has also reinforced her family’s conviction that they do not need to evacuate.
“In case something happens, they’ll tell us: ‘Leave,’” said her grandmother, Nadiia Svichkar, 63.
The baby is due in July. “We hope by then, all of this will even end,” Pryimenko said. “I don’t want my kid to know war.”
Just down the road, others are skeptical.
“I’m more scared of the second occupation than any direct shelling,” said Claudia, 75, who spoke on the condition that her last name not be used in case the Russians return. “We didn’t believe it would come to this. We are scared for other people and we are scared for ourselves.”
Claudia lives in the village of Starovirivka, which neighbors Hrushivka but is in a different district that is not yet being evacuated. Still, the sound of outgoing artillery sounds regularly in the background, and she is preparing for the worst. On Sunday morning, after a night of heavy shelling across the river, her neighbor, Svitlana, 55, opened her phone and read out loud that Russia had taken Krokhmalne.
“We need more weapons,” Claudia said, choking back tears. “We need them immediately.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/analysts-see-russian-fuel-complex-resuming-operations-within-weeks-after-2024-01-22/

Russian energy company Novatek (NVTK.MM), is likely to resume large-scale operations at its Ust-Luga processing complex and Baltic Sea terminal within weeks, following a suspected drone attack seen disrupting naphtha flows to Asia, analysts said on Monday.

"We believe the plant is likely to return to significant capacity within weeks or, at worst, months," analysts at Moscow-based BCS brokerage said in a note.

This article disagrees with the Reuters one above:

Expert: Ust-Luga drone attack will not affect Russia's activities in Ukraine

Economic expert Raivo Vare believes the recovery of Russian energy exports from the Baltic Sea gas terminal Ust-Luga, which was attacked by drones over the weekend, will take time but it will not directly affect military activities in Ukraine.

news.err.ee

Economic expert Raivo Vare believes the recovery of Russian energy exports from the Baltic Sea gas terminal Ust-Luga, which was attacked by drones over the weekend, will take time but it will not directly affect military activities in Ukraine.

"Exact information about the damage is vague, but as far as I understand it, the damage is extensive enough that the plant will not be up and running again any time soon," Raivo Vare, who has long experience with the transit of Russian oil products, told ERR on Monday.

Detailed information about the damage is not publically available, but Vare said the explosion may have unexpected repercussions that are not easily fixable.

"Having been involved in the industry to some extent, I can tell you that there can be very unexpected connections that may not be immediately obvious. To put it in a nutshell – the tanks may be intact, but something has happened to the rest of the infrastructure system, for example," the expert said.

In Ukraine's river war, drones mean nowhere is safe

Ukraine aims to build a million military drones in 2024. In Kherson, the BBC saw how vital they are.

www.bbc.com

There are few places from where you can see Russian-occupied territory with the naked eye in Ukraine.
The western bank of the Dnipro river in the city of Kherson is one of them.
You can't see the Russian troops on the other low, marshy riverbank, but you know they're there.
Incoming artillery fire as we arrive at an abandoned building serves as a sharp reminder.
There is nothing new about shelling in war. But the unit we're meeting deals with one of the key innovations of this invasion: drones.
As we hug the side of the building and take cover in the stairwell, we're led inside from the freezing winter winds to the warmth of a militarised living room.
The smell of a strawberry vape hangs above these Ukrainian soldiers, sitting on armchairs with looks of quiet focus and cans of Monster energy drink. You imagine the floral wallpaper wasn't their choice.
Artem, a 20-year-old pilot, suddenly sits up. They're told the Russians have launched drones from across the water.
"It's from a location known to us," explains Tymur, commander of the Samosud squad in Ukraine's 11th National Guard Brigade.
"Our goal is to destroy the pilots. We have the coordinates, so we're flying there right now."
There are at least a dozen drones on the floor - all loaded with grenades. A cat, the unit's unofficial mascot, nuzzles against one of the propellers.
One drone is taken outside as Artem puts on his VR headset.
We watch on the TV as he flies it across the river into occupied territory. From this vantage point, there are no obvious signs of life.
A few kilometres later, Artem's drone arrives at an industrial area. It passes a warehouse before hovering next to a block of flats.
He eventually spots an antenna next to a window in the stairwell, and flies straight into it. The screen turns blue. Artem exhales and removes his headset.
"When we first did this it was emotional," says Artem. "Now this is business as usual."
"I didn't get enough time to play computer games before [the full-scale invasion]. Now I'm catching up!"

They launch another drone but the screen turns blue as soon as it crosses the river. The Russians have turned on their jamming system.
A third then makes the same journey. This time it makes it through, and Artem returns to the block of flats.
He's able to confirm the antenna was destroyed. With 10 minutes of battery life left, he flies off to see what else he can detect, or destroy.
His unit has been targeting a main road which the Russians use to deliver supplies. Civilians are banned from driving there, so the Ukrainian drone pilots hit anything with wheels.
Artem spots a Russian checkpoint and flies towards it. Unfortunately for him, they use a jamming gun and the screen turns blue as he gets close. He exhales again.
"No matter how many times we hit the same places, [the Russians] are constantly replenished," says Tymur. "They're kind of fearless."
With each drone costing around $500 (£396), it's a constant cycle of launch, seek and destroy.
The returns however can be significant. Tymur says his team once destroyed an S-350 air defence missile system worth $136m.

"My call sign is King," says a unit deputy commander in the 124th Territorial Defence Brigade, with a fist bump. They're gathered around a UK-registered truck with a .50 calibre machine gun mounted on the back.
"We work 24/7," he says. "We destroy all kinds of drones, mainly Iranian-made Shaheds."
"Russia's factories are on a military footing. They are constantly increasing their power. At this point, it's relentless."
So does King think Ukrainian forces could cross the river in large numbers this year?
"It's hard to think about," he replies. "We're just doing our jobs to make sure it happens as soon as possible."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1749853002381296085

US and allies hope Ukraine can have an "initial operating capability" for its F16s this year, Pentagon's Asst. Secretary for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander told reporters today.

Ukrainian troops “feel they are constrained" by lack of ammo at the front, in part due to US inability to send more ammo, Pentagon's Celeste Wallander said today.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1749456690104168871

Ukraine's foreign intelligence chief writes for @TheEconomist. "Agreements on security co-operation [like the one with the UK] are gradually moving Ukraine into the Western security space, without requiring the presence of Western troops on Ukrainian soil"

Former EDF chief: Russia's ammo production now in wartime mode

Russia has taken its production of both ammunition and tanks into wartime mode. Despite struggling more to manufacture missiles, it's clear Russia still has access to Western technology required for production, former commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Riho Terras said Sunday.

news.err.ee

Russia has taken its production of both ammunition and tanks into wartime mode. Despite struggling more to manufacture missiles, it's clear Russia still has access to Western technology required for production, former commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Riho Terras said Sunday.

In an appearance on ETV's "Ukraina stuudios," retired Gen. and MEP Riho Terras (Isamaa/EPP) acknowledged that no one outside Russia knows much about the arms industry there, but it's clear that they can't produce their own microchips.

This means that despite sanctions, they still have access to advanced Western technology, he pointed out.

"The sanctions in place are not working, which means we have to do everything we can to ensure that these sanctions work, and examine what means exist to evade sanctions," the MEP said.

He said that it can be assumed that some of this Western technology is reaching Russia via China, but chips from household appliances will do in a pinch as well.

"Russia's arms industry is quite adept at adapting," Terras said. "It's a competition, really – one imposes sanctions, the other attempts to evade them."

Said arms industry is working at full steam, he continued.

"Ammunition production has certainly been taken into wartime mode, meaning that production doesn't stop," he explained. "Tanks and armored vehicle production is also underway. Missiles are crucial, but as we can see, there are few missiles, meaning they aren't capable of producing as many. When you hear that they're bringing out 10 m missiles produced in 1952, that's well-nigh absurd."

North Korea wouldn't be able to help Russia out with modern military equipment. China could, the former longtime EDF chief acknowledged, however no one has heard anything about China supplying Russia with military equipment.

"We can't compare China with North Korea, or Iran with North Korea," Terras said. "North Korea is still an absolutely failed state; everything produced there is without a doubt to a worse standard than during even the worst times in the Soviet Union. But mass plays a role here."

China is militarily superior, and they have a lot of licensed Russian arms that would suit Russia, he highlighted.

"But I haven't heard any reports of China directly supplying Russia with arms," he continued. "Iran has high-level drones; that's also cutting-edge Western technology. So – sanctions, sanctions, sanctions are what will solve this."

Commenting on the European defense industry, the MEP noted that even if the pledged million shells are delivered to Ukraine, that isn't a solution, as that's the minimum the Ukrainians need. However, it's evident in the case of Germany, for example, that they've started taking supporting Ukraine seriously, as indicated even by an increased number of defense industry orders that have been placed by the state.

"But for European defense industries to coordinate anything that would make things cheaper and faster – well, there's no such sign of this yet," Terras admitted. "And these things take an awful lot of time since we're still lacking that sense of urgency."

 

[themeistersinger]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/europe/turkey-vote-sweden-nato-intl/index.html

 

[Don't Toews Me]

'Hard going': Ukraine counteroffensive tested by Russian army rebuild, says UK senior official - Breaking Defense

“We think they [Russian army] have a [reconnaissance strike] response time that sits between three and six minutes at the moment, and it's getting better over time,” said a senior UK military official.

breakingdefense.com

Shorter reconnaissance strike response times, development of a 600-mile front filled with densely packed minefields and anti-tank weapons, and now two years of warfighting lessons, have made the Russian army into a much more “proficient” force, a senior UK defense official warned today.

The official suggested during the IQPC International Armoured Vehicles conference in London that those new changes to Russian army operations have made Ukraine’s long running counteroffensive “hard going.”

The official explained that despite less sophisticated Russian tactics such as stacking mines on top of one another to defeat mine clearance vehicles, its defensive lines are “well constructed, well protected and well concealed.”

The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity in line with conference rules, further noted that the Russian army had demonstrated, through “extensive use” of drone strikes, that Ukrainian engineering and recovery vehicles are considered “high value targets.”

Reconnaissance strikes are thought to have improved too, he explained.

“We think they [Russian army] have a response time that sits between three and six minutes at the moment, and it’s getting better over time,” revealed the UK official.

Russian progress has led to Ukraine resorting to tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) more in keeping with the World War II era, leaving the Ukrainian army to rely on tanks to “predominantly” take on fire support cover to protect dismounted infantry.

Ukrainian soldiers are then facing “the difficult job of clearing obstacles, mine by mine, hedgerow by hedgerow,” shared the official.

Addressing lessons learned in Ukraine, the official said the conflict underlined that combined arms remains the “only way to defeat a determined enemy” and acknowledged that a mix of “old and new technologies” have dominated combat operations on both sides.

Artificial intelligence, machine learning, space based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and a “proliferation” of open source data have also heavily influenced the conflict, suggested the official, adding that offensive operations are “significantly harder to conduct” compared to executing defensive actions.

Thread: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1749754938542927904

1/ QUICK TAKE on the Russian thoughts abut the role of FPV drones and what is needed (by either side) for a breakthrough) at the front: "The number of drones on the frontline is growing exponentially. Up to a dozen “birds”(FPVs) can now strike one vehicle, and 2-3 drones can chase after a single soldier."
2/ "The "kamikaze" surveillance in the air has already led to a reduction in troops on the front line. Where a platoon used to sit, they now make do with a squad. Both sides strive to minimize movements on the front line. The front now rests on the shoulders of the..."
3/ "...delivery and evacuation groups. If previously they could drive up to the trenches by car, now moving a group of two people at night is considered a relatively safe way. We are moving by leaps and bounds towards isolating the combat area. Already many people..."
4/ "...are losing their nerves and people are simply afraid to approach the front line. Hundreds of expensive cruise missiles are not needed to break through the front line. To break through, you need to make sure that the fighter throws his bag of food away and refuses to go..."
5/ "...to the trenches because of dozens of drones in the air. The recipe for a breakthrough is extremely simple. Increase the number of FPV drones by 4 times and concentrate them on a small area of the front. After the supplies and deliveries stop..."
6/ "...in a week, it will be simply possible to pick off the tired soldiers without much difficulty. And most importantly, to implement such a scenario, very small financial and time investments are needed. It is realistic - the main thing is to get ahead of the enemy."
7/ The debate and discussion over how many drones both sides are manufacturing is only getting more visceral - that is why Ukraine said it needs a million FPVs this year for a breakthrough.
8/ More to the point - this time from Russia's Dmitry Rogozin: "Yesterday and today there was a continuous raid of enemy drones on our positions. At our neighboring detachment, 15 (Ukrainian) FPV kamikazes are on "duty" in the air. Naturally, rotation is difficult."
9/ "It seems that now that countering killer drones have moved the counter-battery warfare to the forefront... as a particularly visceral problem. And why do the Ukrainians need shells and artillery if they are replaced by gamers with their shells/grenades flying on high-speed drones? Good question."
10/ "This is a new type of artillery - high-precision aerial artillery. It will gradually replace conventional cannon and rocket artillery, since it is much more accurate and cheaper, and the recording of target hits is visible to the operators of these UAVs."
11/ "But we (Russian forces) should immediately take measures to prevent the enemy from controlling the air due to the dominance of his reconnaissance UAVs and killer drones."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Thread on Avdiivka: https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1749922739467477072

Latest on Avdiivka and Helicopters Operations. Thread

1/ By late 2023, Frontelligence Insight noted a stabilized situation in Avdiivka. However, recent developments have worsened the situation for Ukrainian troops, especially in the southern residential area
2/ While the northern part of Avdiivka is shielded by the AKHZ (industrial buildings), the southern area is comprised of one to two-story houses susceptible to artillery fire. If unable to capture the area, russians erase it with artillery, deploy infantry, and seize the rubble.
3/ The visible artillery strikes, moving from the outskirts to residential areas, indicate the shift. Eventually, the damage makes defense challenging. The same problem extends to nearby multi-story apartment buildings targeted by previous Russian FAB hits.
4/ The situation on the flanks remains more stable, enabling Ukrainian forces to defend Avdiivka. Sattelite imagery shows a continued shift of artillery fire north of Avdiivka, targeting areas near Stepove, Berdychi, Novobakhmutivka, and Novokalynivka
5/ In summary, Avdiivka's situation has worsened due to limited artillery ammo, a decrease in counter-battery fire, and a lack of reinforcements. Russia exploits these gaps, leveraging its personnel and ammo numbers advantage.
6/ Resurgence of Helicopter Operations

Our team previously identified a FARP (Forward Arming and Refueling Point) helicopter base in Strilkove. Following Ukraine's ATACMS strikes on airfields in Luhansk and Berdyansk, the base was abandoned and remained unused until recently.
7/ Recent imagery from January 2024 reveals the presence of Russian helicopters at the base. Analysis over multiple days indicates that Russians keep no more than 3-4 helicopters at a time. Additionally, the helicopters appear to be more dispersed
8/ We continue to emphasize the need for a sufficient supply of weaponry to Ukraine to achieve a shift in the balance of power. Small numbers provide a short-term advantage, with operational success possible under the right conditions, but the enemy uses this time to adapt.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749940123800568262

Ukrainian HUR revealed details of numerous covert operations against enemy rear infrastructure by the group of Lt. Colonel Oleh Babiy, who perished in an engagement after destroying and disabling 3 enemy Tu-22M bombers:

https://gur.gov.ua/content/babii-oleh-ivanovych.html

In his last battle, his unit neutralised three enemy Tu-22 aircraft that bombed Ukraine.

In order to destroy the Russian bombers, Ukrainian reconnaissance officers covered more than 600 kilometers of enemy territory on foot.

They received an extremely important task - to stop numerous airstrikes on peaceful cities of Ukraine. Task was completed. However, it turned out to be the last for Oleg Babii, the commander who provided coverage for the escape of his team.

The hero of Ukraine, Colonel Oleg Babii, was a reconnaissance officer who, from the beginning of the war, took an active part in the destruction of the Russian occupation forces.

From the first days of the large-scale invasion by Russians, he organised and carried out special operations in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and ienemy territory, which actually changed the course of this war.

To his credit, there are nine successful reconnaissance forays into the enemy's rear, twelve special incursions to organise and support the resistance movement on the temprarily occupied territories of Ukraine and in the enemy's rear. Detection of up to 70 important strategic objects of the enemy: command posts, military equipment, engineering and fortification equipment, etc. Information about them was used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to plan operations to liberate temprarily occupied territories and inflict damage on important enemy targets.

Thanks to the successful performance of the tasks by Colonel Babi's group, it was possible to disorganise the logistics of the occupiers, destroy their important facilities and elements of critical infrastructure. Entire divisions of the Russian occupation forces lost combat capability, the system of commanding troops and weapons, suffered communication disruptions, and thus suffered losses of efficiency in interaction with their rear.

The last successfully completed task of Oleg Babi's intelligence group - the destruction and disabling of three Russian TU-22M3 bombers - significantly disrupted the plans of the Russian military-political leadership to launch missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine and in fact completely destabilised the operation of airfields and long-range aviation bases.

It is obvious that this caused significant economic losses to the aggressor country and provoked panic among the local population and Russian military personnel, because the forces and means of the special services of the Russian Federation were dispersed. And one more thing should not be forgotten - damage to the image of the so-called "invincibility" of the Russian army and the "heroism" of its military and political leadership.

August 2023. As part of a reconnaissance group, Oleg Babii covered more than 600 km on foot through the territory of the enemy in order to carry out a special combat mission - to stop the terrorist aerial bombardment of peaceful Ukrainian cities by the Russians.

Having made their way into the deep rear of the enemy, the officers accomplished their mission - they destroyed a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber and disabled two more, but they themselves suffered irreparable losses. Returning to the territory under the control of Ukraine, the reconnaissance group of Colonel Oleg Babii was ambushed and engaged in an unequal battle with the Russian invaders.

In this battle, on August 30, 2023, while provide cover to the escape of his comrades-in-arms, Ukrainian reconnaissance officer Lt. Col. Oleg Babii was mortally wounded and died.

For his heroic feat, Oleg Babii was awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine with the award of the "Golden Star" order. Posthumously.

The Hero is survived by his wife and two small children. The youngest daughter was only one year old at the time of her father's death.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/drones-are-hit-miss-ukrainian-soldiers-2024-01-23/

A Ukrainian soldier near the front line looks into video goggles and clutches a control set in both hands as he guides a drone during the war against Russia.
The soldier, who goes by the call sign "Sam", looks up and complains: "There's no video."
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, have become vital for Ukraine's military since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Hundreds can buzz over Russian positions in eastern and southern Ukraine at any one time.
But many of them are hastily and cheaply assembled by volunteers, and the lack of quality is affecting Ukraine's ability to survey and attack Russian positions.
At an undisclosed location along the eastern front line in the Donetsk region, soldiers in the "Raroh" squadron said they would rather have 10 well-made devices than 50 less reliable ones.
"Most common problems are problems with the video link and with the control link," Sam said during a recent visit by Reuters. "And most of them are because of low-quality parts that are used very often to make the drones even cheaper."
Some of the drone operators called for UAVs to be tested before they are used in battle.
"We must test drones supplied by new producers or made by a civilian," said one who goes by the call sign "Fest". "In addition to losing the drone itself, we can lose ammunition which is not cheap."
Another, who uses the call sign "Pit", said drones should conform to standards so that operators know in advance how the device they are asked to operate will work.
"You work a lot and have to do flight after flight while drones differ a lot. One has different controllers, another different settings, and so on," he said. "When under pressure, it happens that you miss a detail and it leads to missing a target."

Video: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1749980604081320315

Eastern Ukraine, footage of Ukrainian drones from the 14th UAV Regiment guiding GMLRS rockets onto a Russian 1К148 Yastreb-AV radar, 2S5 Giatsint-S, Buk-M3 SAM system, and a 1L219 Zoopark counter-battery radar.

EW: https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1749838036949520711

The Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov, reports that a new trench radio electronic warfare system has been developed for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which can be a backpack and jam the FPV of kamikaze drones. It creates white noise that makes Russian drones uncontrollable. The radius of action is 250 meters. It is already in serial production.

Satellite Imagery: https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1749836213538717826

Russian decoy aircraft are visible at several air bases involved in the invasion of Ukraine.

These decoys don't cast shadows or change locations like real aircraft which makes them stand out in high resolution satellite imagery.

Thread on Ukrainian mobilization: https://twitter.com/francisjfarrell/status/1749926852854972850

Wrote about the storm building around Ukraine's mobilisation policy for @KyivIndependent:

This issue is both a uniquely painful catalyst of societal tension in a country at war, but also a very stark condensation of all of Ukraine's internal woes. 1/
There are so many layers to this: but to boil it down to its very simplest essence: this is about a military fighting a brutal war of attrition needing more men to keep up the fight and a civilian male population not keen to go at this point in the war. 2/
^And in this aspect, by the way, nobody who is not either fighting or eligible to be taken and sent off to the trenches has the right to a moral position on what a given individual should do. I feel this acutely as a foreign citizen in Ukraine. It's just so tough. 3/
Anyway, what makes this all worse are the number of issues within the Armed Forces that make people even less keen to fight, particularly during the drafting process itself: corruption, violent detainment, negligent medicals, etc. This only widens the gap. 4/
So between the military and their unavoidable need and the civilians who have gotten used to normal life during war, you have Zelensky, the government, and parliament, who are forced to make something happen and provide the legal foundation to get these people to the military. 5/
This is objectively a very unenviable job to have, but in the midst of it, whilst knowing the objective importance of this for the country's future existence, players are making small amounts of space for them to play political games. 6/
Zelensky, starting from his press conference, put himself firmly in the civilians' court when he said the 450-500,000 number was too high and that civilians needed to be respected for their role as taxpayers. Reasonable points, but he did show his hand. 7/
One can speculate about how this is linked to the cold Zelensky-Zaluzhnyi relations, but I think this is besides the point. The natural tension between military and civilian leadership over this issue would exist whether they were best friends or not. 8/
Then, within the parliament, you have opposition parties like Poroshenko's proposing different versions of the draft law, not trying to deny the need to mobilise more, but to look for aspects of the draft law that they can score a few political points by changing. 9/
All in all, it is simply a must that the next draft law is passed this time round. Nobody will sabotage it outright- all stakeholders understand the importance at heart. What remains to be seen is how its implimentation is handled by Ukrainian society over a difficult 2024. end

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Moscow blames Kyiv as Russian military plane crash kills 74

Defence ministry says 65 Ukrainian prisoners on board flight died when aircraft went down

www.ft.com

Moscow has accused Kyiv of shooting down a military transport plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, which crashed near Russia’s border with Ukraine on Wednesday morning.
Russia’s defence ministry said all 74 people onboard the Il-76 plane died, including 65 Ukrainian soldiers who were being transported for a prisoner exchange from Moscow to the Belgorod region of Russia — the Russian border province that has faced the most spillover from President Vladimir Putin’s nearly two-year invasion.
Six crew members and three Russian service personnel accompanying the prisoners were also among the passengers, according to the defence ministry.
Video posted on the social media app Telegram showed a plane banking sharply near a village before bursting into a large ball of flame as it hit the ground. Trails from what appeared to be anti-aircraft fire were visible in the sky behind it, while the plane appeared to be on fire before it crashed.
Moscow claimed Kyiv’s forces shot down the plane in order to sabotage the PoW exchange “with the goal of accusing Russia of eliminating Ukrainian soldiers”.
Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence unit said Russia bore responsibility for the safe transport of Ukrainian prisoners of war and that Kyiv should have been notified if they were on board the plane.
“We do not have reliable and comprehensive information about who exactly was on board the plane,” GUR said, adding that “the Ukrainian side was not informed about the need to ensure the safety of airspace in the area of Belgorod, as was repeatedly done in the past”.
Russia’s failure to do so, GUR added, suggests the incident amounted to “planned and deliberate actions with the aim of destabilising the situation in Ukraine”.
In a cryptic statement issued after the crash, Ukraine’s general staff said it would continue to target Russian military transport planes in the Belgorod region given that they deliver missiles used to target the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
“The armed forces of Ukraine will continue to take measures to destroy means of delivery, control the airspace to destroy the terrorist threat, including in the Belgorod-Kharkiv direction,” the statement said.
Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times they were investigating the downing and would provide more information later.

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1750218403866989027

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, the HUR, confirms that a POW swap was indeed planned but blames the Russian side for not informing the Ukrainians about the crashed Il-76 transport plane’s mission; accuses Russia of deliberate provocation.

https://gur.gov.ua/content/cohodni-mav-vidbutysia-obmin-polonenymy-iakyi-ne-vidbuvsia.html

Some video of the incident: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1750120406155935909

Footage reportedly of the Russian Il-76 crashing and its wreckage from Russian Telegram channels.

More video: https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1750081852105457765

A Russian IL-76 strategic airlifter crashed in Belgorod, according to Russian media.

Footage uploaded to Telegram shows the aircraft flying at low altitude before hitting the ground and exploding in a huge fireball.

Going to need to use Google Translate for this one: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1750217337389641953

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1750208344315371958

Ukraine’s military intelligence said that Russia was responsible for ensuring the safety of POWs, and added that Russia didn’t inform the Ukrainian side that the airspace near the city of Belgorod should be secured during a specific period of time.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1750191041435648169

Ukraine’s Main Intel Directorate officially comments on today’s failed prisoner exchange, saying it did its part and delivered Russian POWs to the swap location but Moscow never told Kyiv to hold its fire against transport planes in Belgorod’s airspace.

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1750187668904816874

Ukraine’s General Staff says its anti-aircraft units pay special attention to transport planes landing in Belgorod because they might carry missiles used in attacks on Ukraine. It adds that Ukrainian forces will keep targeting those planes.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02d3aJKUYjbbWyU9S1a7FC4W3VWn71v5vFJxGbpZNApYRdrwJ1ti81NDTCQPmN4y7Jl&id=100069092624537

 

[Orange&Blue]

From what I'm hearing, ukraine shouldn't expect any US military equipment till President's day... at best.

Congress sucks. No, that isn't a political statement. Just a statement of fact.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

National Security Daily

Although presidential elections have been delayed due to the war, Valery Zaluzhny is something of a folk hero in Ukraine — which could translate into electoral power.

www.politico.com

If Russia wins the war against Ukraine, some officials in Kyiv are ready to pin the blame on the West, a Ukrainian military official told NatSec Daily.

During conversations with other Ukrainian colleagues, the military official said he has heard complaints that Western assistance to Kyiv is too slow and that allies have refused to send all the weapons requested for the war effort.

“Unfortunately, there are some bad guys trying to somehow blame our most confident allies that we cannot win this war because of them,” said the military official, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

But the West has done its fair share, he said, arguing that Kyiv’s military didn’t adequately prepare for Russia’s full-scale invasion and that — even though the U.S. hasn’t delivered all the weapons it has requested — the military is far stronger today than it was before February 2022. Without Western support, Ukraine would have surrendered in April of that year, he added.

The Ukrainian official painted a stark picture: “We are trying to save ammunition,” he said. “If you're only allowed to shoot 20 or 30 times per day, there will be no progress on the battlefield.”

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1750274050830549430

Major incident in Russian town of Tuapse on the eastern shore of the Black Sea. It is believed that the Rosneft plant, one of the oldest in Russia which processes oil from several oil fields, caught fire after an unidentified flying object struck one of the oil tanks.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1750267208293388590

Latest: Zelensky said in his nighttime address Wednesday that his top intelligence and security officials were working to establish the facts surrounding the downing of the Russian plane and that he would call for an "international investigation" into the matter.

Zelensky: "Facts is the key word now," he said, suggesting that Kyiv had yet to determine whether Ukrainian prisoners of war were on board the plane. "The GUR [military intelligence directorate] is engaged in finding out the fate of all prisoners..."
Zelensky: "The Security Service of Ukraine is investigating all the circumstances. And I instructed the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to inform partners about the available data in Ukraine."

"Our state will insist on an international investigation."
Zelensky: Calling the 700th day of Russia's full-scale war a "very difficult day," he said it began with a meeting of his top military & security officials to discuss the downing of the Russian plane and POW swap that was supposed to take place on Wednesday but was canceled.
"It is obvious that the Russians are playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, with the feelings of their relatives and with the emotions of our society," Zelensky said tonight.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1750256430865695224

"EU partners last spring vowed to send Ukraine 1mn artillery rounds, which are crucial to the country’s frontline defence. But as of late December, Ukrainian officials said that only about 300,000 shells had been provided."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/ErinBurnett/status/1750317471595220996

Ukrainian frontline troops tell @fpleitgenCNN that biggest shortage is 155M artillery shells. They report to firing smoke due to no ammo. As UKR FM tells @ronzheimer “North Korea is a more efficient partner to Russia than friends who try to supply Ukraine with artillery ammo”.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1750282804955410805

As our team previously indicated in the analysis, Russians are likely to continue erasing residential areas in the southern part of Avdiivka. The recent analysis shows that over the past few days, the intensity of fire has increased and is concentrated in the residential area.

Video of oil refinery in Tuapse on fire: https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1750277199456883056

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1750274243068055927

New Sentinel images (23.1.) show significant shelling in the southern part of Avdiivka and in Bakhmut.

Russians managed to breach the defences and infiltrate southern Avdiivka, but according to Ukrainians, the attack was repelled and the situation is now under control. 1/4
The Ukrainian position, known as Zenit, has also been under heavy fire. have made attempts to capture it, but still seems to control it. If the Russians could establish a permanent foothold in the southern areas of Avdiivka, holding Zenit could become more difficult. 2/4
The battle of Bakhmut continues also. The most intense fighting is taking place west of Bakhmut, between the Ukrainian-controlled villages Ivanivske and Klishchiivka. Ukrainian defences on the railroad east of Klishchiivka have also been heavily shelled. 3/4
The situation on the southern and western sides of Bakhmut has been fairly static. The new satellite images and recent geolocated footage shows that even though the frontline doesn't move, fighting is constantly ongoing, and the Russians have some ambitions in this area too. 4/4

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Most of Russia’s War Chips Are Made by US and European Companies

Russia imported more than $1 billion of advanced US and European chips last year, despite restrictions intended to stop President Vladimir Putin’s military getting hold of technology to fuel its war in Ukraine.

www.bloomberg.com

Russia imported more than $1 billion of advanced US and European chips last year, despite restrictions intended to stop President Vladimir Putin’s military getting hold of technology to fuel its war in Ukraine.
Classified Russian customs service data obtained by Bloomberg show that more than half of imported semi-conductors and integrated circuits in the first nine months of 2023 were manufactured by US and European companies.
They included Intel Corp, Advanced Micro Devices and Analog Devices Inc. as well as European brands Infineon Technologies AG, STMicroelectronics NV and NXP Semiconductors NV. There’s no suggestion the companies breached sanctions laws and the data doesn’t indicate who exported the technologies to Russia, from where they were shipped and when the goods were manufactured.

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1750453427933422000

Ukrainian milblogger Yury Butusov writes that the Russian breakthrough in the southeast of Avdiivka creates the risk of the Russians seizing 9th Quarter, an area of highrise apartment blocks that’s key for the control of the city.

Butusov also urges the authorities not to waste the time and start building a new defence line on the western edge of Donetsk region - Kurakhove-Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk - in earnest.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1750491365023064184

Andriy Yusov of Ukraine's GUR military intel says Russian military & political VIPs were meant to be on the IL-76 but were forbade at last moment by FSB. He says only 5 bodies were sent to a local morgue, and rescuers weren't allowed to inspect crash site.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1750490881935712655

Ukrainian PoWs have been flown by Il-76 to Belgorod before. But there is no evidence so far that suggests they were on board the doomed flight. Russian military claims are not evidence. We need to keep an open mind.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1750466003585106159

Ukraine’s parliamentary human rights ombudsman says there is still no confirmation of Russian claims that Ukrainian POWs were on board the downed Il-76 transport plane over Belgorod region.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1750516090134781965

When Russia first recruited prisoners to fight in Ukraine, Putin pardoned them personally and they could go home after 6 months.

Now there's no pardon – and they must stay at the front until the war's over. great story by @lizafokht@barabanch@oivshina

 

[Don't Toews Me]

German defense minister doesn’t ‘know anything’ about missile swap with UK

London reportedly wants to get Germany’s Taurus cruise missiles and then send its Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.

www.politico.eu

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said he doesn't know about any plans for a missile swap between Germany and the U.K.

German newspaper Handelsblatt reported Wednesday that London recently offered Germany a deal: The U.K. would give Ukraine its Storm Shadow cruise missiles and in exchange Germany would fill the gap by sending its Taurus missiles to Britain.

"I don't know anything about this offer. If there are talks about it, then not in my ministry," Pistorius said on Thursday in an interview.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1750509469811761420

Ukrainian Defence Forces carried out a successful strike on a group of Russian servicemen in the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast (presumably, Ilovaisk training grounds) using HIMARS MLRS.

However, as Romanov points out, these were not just regular troops but UAV operators who assembled for training. As we know, UAV operators are being heavily targeted by the Defence Forces. The earlier source mentions 24 dead and 4 wounded as a result of the strike.

Romanov accuses the head of the training courses of negligence for sending invites through a Telegram bot. This could be easily intercepted by the Defence Forces.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1750460042837393493

In recent months, there have been heating breakdowns in 16 locations across Russia. These breakdowns amidst sub-freezing temperatures are an expansion of an existing problem that has plagued Russian cities and towns for decades, but has likely become more acute due to Russian wartime policies.

Russia has routinely prioritised military spending over re-investment in general public infrastructure, especially since their invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Many regional governments have been asked to take on the burden of operating with less federal revenue and have been asked to fund local volunteer forces, which has likely stretched their budgets and necessitated some cuts to maintenance spending. Additionally, mobilisation has likely led to a workforce shortage across all industries including qualified heating engineers and plumbers.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Russia’s war in Ukraine is intensifying an acute deficit of workers that’s hitting businesses from metal refineries to posh Moscow restaurants and igniting a race to increase salaries that threatens the Kremlin’s ability to replenish the armed forces.
The competition for employees has pushed wages up at a double-digit pace and made once-relatively lucrative military service less appealing, even after a 10.5% increase in monthly pay to fight in the war last year. Specialists such as engineers, mechanics, machine operators, welders, drivers and couriers can now find jobs with salaries comparable to or greater than in roles with the army after compensation for such work rose by 8%-20% last year, according to data from local recruitment service Superjob seen by Bloomberg.

Video of Ukrainian UGV: https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1750563285747777570

Video of Ukrainian SOF: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1750552787367129283

Video: https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1750444954298577263

Ukrainian Saker Scout drone with artificial intelligence.

The video shows the process of target recognition.

The developers of the drone confirmed to Forbes journalists that their drones have several times carried out autonomous strikes on Russian troops, that is, without the participation of the operator.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Video: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1750149276691206626

A Russian battalion in the Donetsk region is building and repairing drones near the front line - note the 3D printers and the assembly that builds "tens of drones daily" - start at 01:53.

Thread on strategy: https://twitter.com/antbruceking/status/1750479226447225034

1/ Strategy for Ukraine:

The west’ strategy for #UkraineRussiaWar 2024 has become an urgent question. Many commentators @shashj @KofmanMichael @RALee85 @HoansSolo @Jack_Watling have already stressed that we are approaching a crux maybe even a climax in this War.
2/Ukraine’s counter-offensive of 2023 failed. Frankly, it was never likely to succeed, as much as its proponents claimed. UAF were trying to breach heavily fortified, prepared Russian positions, without air superiority, or favorable combat ratios.
3/ Even if UAF had breached the Surovikin Line it seems probable the offensive would have culminated in an urban battle around Tokmak, Melitopol, or Mariupol. They just didn’t have the combat power.
4/Despite horrendous losses in men and materiel Russia has endured, it has regenerated its force. It has fortified the territory it has taken. It has about a three to one advantage in artillery on current figures.
5/It is imperative that Ukraine win this war. Russian aggression has to be resisted and repelled. Recently, President #Zelensky still defined winning as retaking all Ukraine’s stolen territory including the Donbas and Crimea.
6/Ukraine has the right to its land. A full re-integration of Ukraine would be just. But is it realistic? Is it the basis of a coherent strategy for 2024? I do not think it is. Indeed, a maximalist Ukrainian strategy may be counter-productive, discouraging Western support.
7/The 2023 Ukrainian offensive failed. It seems improbable that a 2024 Offensive would be any more successful. The conditions are worse. Combat ratios have shifted in Russia’s favour, even if almost all its professional troops who started this war have been killed or wounded.
8/Russia has re-equipped. Its fortifications have been strengthened. Without a massive increase in UAF troop numbers, firepower, and airpower, it is almost inconceivable that a major offensive could succeed – maybe even unwise to mount it.
9/ So should Ukraine and the West therefore just give up and admit defeat? NOT AT ALL. This war can and has to be won. A realistic assessment that another Ukrainian counter-offensive cannot succeed, recommends only a refinement of strategy – not an admission of failure.
10/On 24 February, most observers believed that Ukraine was doomed. Russia would defeat UAF and depose Zelensky. In the event, Ukraine inflicted a terrible defeat on Russia in 2022, it defended most of its territory, it united itself as a genuine, democratic republic. It won.
10/ The fact that it is unlikely to be able to re-integrate the Crimea, and much of Zaporizhia and the Donbas in 2024, cannot take away that remarkable victory of 2022.
11/However, to hold onto that victory in 2022, Ukraine – and its western backers – need a new strategy. Instead of pursuing an unrealistic strategy of expelling Russian from the territory it has taken, the new strategy should focus on consolidating what it has.
12/ A strategy of aggressive defence is required. Russia may continue to hold the terrain it illegally invaded. But the prize of any further aggression against the Republic of Ukraine must be catastrophic. It must be impossible for Russia to encroach upon Ukrainian terrain.
13/ In order to repel Russia forces and to deter the Kremlin, a new strategy is required. What are its main features:
(1) Build a network of interconnected citadels in and around frontier towns and villages, each one of which the Russians could only take at great cost.
14/
(2) Massive artillery and rocket strikes to repel any Russian incursions against those citadels.
(3) Strike Russian forces, C2 nodes, logistics hubs deep in Russian-held territory in Ukraine.
15/
(4) Major artillery/rocket/UAV bombardments of Crimea supported by naval attacks and blockade against Sevastopol
5) Continue kinetic and cyber attacks against CNI in Russia.
16/Ukraine cannot execute this strategy alone. Increased western support throughout 2024 and into 2025 is imperative here. Without it, Ukraine’s victory may descend into a defeat.

What should the West do?
16/ Training:
(1) Expand the training of Ukrainian troops. It should accelerate the training and education of staff officers to generate brigade, divisional and corps level HQs capable of conducting combined arms operations – not just tactical missions.
18/ Weapons:
(2) Increase the production and supply of artillery shells.
(3) Increase the supply of advanced missile, rocket and artillery systems (ACATMS etc).
(4) Increase the supply of air defence systems and fighter aircraft
19/ Political:
(5) Agree to admit Ukraine to NATO, on the day after the war is over. The west has a duty to do this. Even more important, NATO membership is the only way to guarantee Ukrainian security in the long term.
20/Conclusion: A full re-integration of Ukraine is unlikely. That is deplorable. But if this war ends in 2025, with most of Ukraine intact as a thriving republic, a NATO, and eventually EU, member state, that is no defeat – especially when we think back to the 24 February 2022.
21/ Better a successful pragmatic strategy, than a morally justified, but impractical one.

Thread (political remarks removed): https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1750535060413993032

New interview with "Karl," the Estonian military analyst whose insights on the war in Ukraine have proved remarkably acute. With @holger_r:
"Let’s start from the frontlines where changes over the last months have been completely minimal. Russia has slight success south of Kupyansk and allegedly also south of Avdiivka, but it is only on a very operational level."
"While Ukraine didn’t achieve much during their 3-month offensive in the summer, Russia achieved even less now over the last 3 months. It’s a stalemate."
"Ukraine's problem is the increasing shortage of specific ammunition. It’s not yet totally dire but the limits are getting close."
"There is increasingly more information coming from different sections on the frontline that Russia’s superiority in artillery fire is getting critical."
"If the situation doesn’t improve, it will start affecting the frontline. No matter how much smarter you are or how much more accurate and efficient your weapons are, if the ratio is 10:1 for Russia, it will affect the frontline."
"Ukraine’s big achievement is that they have continuously weakened Russia's positions at and around the Black Sea. Hitting the A-50 and IL-22 planes impedes Russia's missile attacks coming from that direction."
"The intensity of Russia's missile attacks is clearly lower than it was last year. Then they had weekly attacks with more than 100 missiles, now the number of missiles is more around 40 and attacks are not weekly."
"In the beginning of winter last year Russia even carried out such large scale attacks twice a week."
"Ukraine's air defense is significantly better than a year ago. Last winter there were several regions which were without electricity for days. We don’t see this now. I think we can say that from the energy point of view, Ukraine will survive the winter."
"Ukraine doesn’t have the capability to shoot down S-300/S-400 and Kh-22 rockets. But their radius is small. Russia can target Kharkiv, Kherson, smaller towns in Sumy and maybe Zaporizhzhia with them."
"Those missiles were intended for air defense and anti-ship purposes but Russia is using them on land targets. Their accuracy is really off and that’s why Russia can’t hit military targets with them. They will miss. That is why we see random residential houses hit in Kharkiv."
"The percentage of shot-down cruise missiles is very high but with Iskander’s it was at 50% yesterday. Ukraine has started to emphasize that they are using increasingly more REB (radio electronic combat) methods in air defense."
"Rockets are not being shot down but jammers lead them off the targets. If Ukraine can successfully use REB, it is good news because it saves air defense rockets and is also cheaper."

"There will be very difficult weeks ahead. Ukraine will not lose the war in just a few weeks and Russia will not gain a massive advantage. But in a matter of a few months, the situation can become critically worse."
"Europe is getting better in this but in the short term Europe’s contributions will not be able to replace America's. There are also considerable problems getting Ukraine's own military industry up and running."
"Historically, Ukraine’s military industry has been located either on currently occupied areas or close to the frontlines."
"It’s unrealistic to do it there now. Restoring the industry anywhere on Ukraine’s territory requires a very high level of air defense capabilities. Otherwise it will be a pointless investment."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

EDF colonel: Russia's recent progress in Ukraine has been marginal

While Russia has recently had the initiative in Ukraine, it has not managed to achieve any success, said the General Staff of the volunteer Estonian Defense League (Kaitseliit), Col. Eero Rebo. He did not speculate on the Il-76 crash this week and said Russia is not cooperating the international...

news.err.ee

While Russia has recently had the initiative in Ukraine, it has not managed to achieve any success, said the General Staff of the volunteer Estonian Defense League (Kaitseliit), Col. Eero Rebo. He did not speculate on the Il-76 crash this week and said Russia is not cooperating the international investigators.

"There has been a significant increase in the number of [Russian troop] attacks in the Luhansk direction in January compared to the previous month. In addition to infantry, more armored vehicles have been used. The Russian Federation forces are holding the initiative there, but progress has been marginal," Rebo said at a briefing organized by the Ministry of Defense on Friday.

Russia may try to attack the border areas of Belgorod and Kharkiv regions in the coming weeks, he said, to try and redirect Ukrainian units away from Kupyansk, which is one of the main focuses of the Russian forces.

The colonel said, that in the direction of Donetsk, the most active battles are near Bahmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk.

"And very clearly, the main focus of the attack is Avdiivka, where Putin's units have reportedly also been seen conducting reconnaissance and various maneuvers inside the city. But this does not mean that they would have been able to break through, or even obstruct the Ukrainian forces' logistics," the colonel said.

In the direction of Zaporizhzhia, active combat is taking place mainly to the south of Velyka Novosilka, where neither side is making progress, he added.

In the direction of Kherson, Ukrainian units are holding the bridgeheads created on the eastern bank of the Dnieper, and keeping the Russians busy there. The Russians have not been able to force the Ukrainians to retreat despite various attack attempts.

Speaking about the Il-76 transport flight that crashed in Russia's Belgorod region on Wednesday, Rebo said there is little information.

"I believe that this plane crashed. I see a pattern here of trying to use this in an information war and to create uncertainty about the Ukrainians downing planes. However, today we do not have any definite data on what exactly was on board, because the Russian Federation is not cooperating with the international aviation safety authorities," said Colonel Rebo.

Putin Sends US Signal on Ukraine Talks, Sensing Advantage in War

Vladimir Putin is testing the waters on whether the US is ready to engage in talks for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.

www.bloomberg.com

Vladimir Putin is testing the waters on whether the US is ready to engage in talks for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.
He’s put out feelers to the US via indirect channels to signal he’s open to discussion, including potentially on future security arrangements for Ukraine, according to two people close to the Kremlin.
US officials say they’re not aware of the supposed overtures, which may amount to a trial balloon, and see no indication the Russian president is serious about looking for a way to end the fighting, which has settled into a deadly stalemate as the war heads into a third year.
Hints of Russian openness to talks - even if disingenuous - could help sow division among Ukraine’s allies, isolating Kyiv and undermining President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s efforts to win support for his own peace formula, which calls for full Russian withdrawal.
The people close to the Kremlin, who asked not to be identified to discuss matters that aren’t public, said the signals were conveyed to senior US officials last month through an intermediary they declined to identify. Putin, they said, may be willing to consider dropping an insistence on neutral status for Ukraine and even ultimately abandon opposition to eventual NATO membership - the threat of which has been a central Russian justification for the invasion.

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91473

Small drones like those used in Ust-Luga and Tuapse cannot cause major destruction. Still, they are cheap, and can be used for nuisance attacks. With a bit of luck, they can damage not just pipelines, but also compressors, valves, control units, and other pieces of equipment that are tricky to replace because of sanctions.

If this is Kyiv’s plan, it’s similar to the tactics employed by Russia a year ago, when it targeted the Ukrainian power system, bombing transformers in the hope that repairs would take time. In the end, Ukraine managed to source enough spare parts, and come up with enough quick fixes that Russia’s campaign failed. Now, it’s Russia’s energy infrastructure that’s in the crosshairs—and Russia needs to find a coping strategy.

On the one hand, there’s no doubt that Russia has a much larger industrial base than Ukraine, which means there are more opportunities to source parts domestically. On the other hand, Russia is more isolated from international markets than Ukraine.

If we are seeing the beginning of a wave of attacks on western Russia’s oil refineries, the consequences will be serious. Either way, Russia’s reserves of resilience and ingenuity look set to be severely tested. The speed and quality of the repairs at Kstovo, Ust-Luga, and Tuapse will be key indicators of Moscow’s readiness.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/26/ukraine-war-plan-biden-defense/

Still smarting from last year’s failed counteroffensive in Ukraine, the administration is putting together a new strategy that will de-emphasize winning back territory and focus instead on helping Ukraine fend off new Russian advances while moving toward a long-term goal of strengthening its fighting force and economy.
The emerging plan is a sharp change from last year, when the U.S. and allied militaries rushed training and sophisticated equipment to Kyiv in hopes that it could quickly push back Russian forces occupying eastern and southern Ukraine. That effort foundered, largely on Russia’s heavily fortified minefields and front-line trenches.
“It’s pretty clear that it will be difficult for them to try to mount the same kind of major push on all fronts that they tried to do last year,” a senior administration official said.
The idea now is to position Ukraine to hold its position on the battlefield for now, but “put them on a different trajectory to be much stronger by the end of 2024 … and get them on a more sustainable path,” said the senior official, one of several who described the internal policymaking on the condition of anonymity.

Rather than the massive artillery duels that dominated much of the fighting in the second half of 2022 and much of 2023, the West’s hope for 2024 is that Ukraine will avoid losing any more territory than the one-fifth of the country now occupied by Russia. Additionally, Western governments want Kyiv to concentrate on tactics where its forces have had greater recent success — longer-distance fires, including with French cruise missiles promised for delivery within the next few months; holding back Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to protect naval transit from Ukraine’s ports; and tying up Russian forces inside Crimea with missile strikes and special operations sabotage.

Along the front line, the Ukrainian military has started preparing accordingly, aiming to replicate Russia’s layered defenses of trenches and minefields in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region that hampered last year’s counteroffensive.
“Normal soldiers aren’t very interested in [Ukrainian] politics and foreign politics,” said a Ukrainian commander in the eastern Donetsk region, who was not authorized to speak publicly. “But when you feel for yourselves that it’s not enough, like now with ammunition, mortars, shells, that immediately triggers worry. You can fight, but you have to have something to fight with.”

4 Ukrainian Pilots Undergoing F-16 Training in Arizona as Pentagon Reveals New Details

There are currently four Ukrainian pilots undergoing F-16 training in Tuscon, Arizona, a U.S. defense official revealed.

www.airandspaceforces.com

As Ukraine awaits the delivery of F-16s in 2024, a U.S. defense official revealed new details on the training of Ukrainian pilots and maintainers in America.

There are currently four Ukrainian pilots undergoing F-16 training in the United States, the official told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The instruction is occurring at Morris Air National Guard Base, Ariz., in Tucson, where they are training with the 162nd Wing, the U.S. Air Force’s dedicated foreign F-16 training unit.

Several other pilots are undergoing English-language training, the defense official added, while approximately 20 maintainers are also undergoing English-language training at Joint Base San Antonio, Texas, for the next several months.

The new details come after assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs Celeste Wallander said F-16 pilot training for Ukraine is “on track” after a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a gathering of over 50 countries that coordinates military aid.

“We are aiming to provide an initial operating capability for Ukraine with its F-16 program in 2024, which would entail trained pilots, the platforms, but in addition, trained maintainers and sustainers, infrastructure, and spare parts, ammunition,” Wallander told reporters at the Pentagon on Jan. 23.

The F-16 efforts are coordinated by an Air Force Coalition within the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. The U.S. government must sign off on any F-16 transfers, a move the Biden administration initially resisted before promoting the effort. However, the U.S. does not plan to provide its own F-16s.

Pilots at Morris complete the six-month “B Course”—or Basic Course—designed to instruct foreign and American pilots familiar with other combat jets in the fundamentals necessary to transition to the F-16. That is the course the four Ukrainian pilots are now undergoing, the defense official said.

What are Wagner Group mercenaries still doing in Belarus? – DW – 01/25/2024

After Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed mutiny in 2023, mercenaries of the Wagner Group went to Belarus. How many are still in the country and what are they doing there?

www.dw.com

Today, no more than 1,000 Wagner mercenaries remain in Belarus. Most of them are still in a camp in the Asipovichy District of Mogilev Region, southeast of the capital, Minsk. That's according to Valery Sakhashchyk, effective defense minister of the United Transitional Cabinet, a government-in-exile under Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who now resides in Lithuania.

Sakhashchyk told DW that dozens of mercenaries "who were looking for safety and stability and are willing to accept lower incomes," are receiving Belarusian passports with new names and dates of birth, and are joining the country's internal troops [The Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus is a paramilitary police force — Editor's note].

However, Sakhashchyk does not believe that Lukashenko "can offer anything special that would entice Wagner mercenaries." Military wages in Belarus are far lower than what they were accustomed to in Russia, he said.
That's why Sakhashchyk expects more Wagner mercenaries will leave the country. "Belarus has become a transit point for them. Many have signed contracts with various Russian authorities, and some have flown to Africa. There aren't enough mercenaries left in Belarus to influence events," said the former commander.

Ryhor Nizhnikau, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, pointed out that Minsk considers the Wagner mercenaries to be a "useful political instrument." Lukashenko's regime could use them to train Belarusian security forces, or as a "scare tactic" in elections, the expert explained.

Nizhnikau also believes the Kremlin profits from having mercenaries in Belarus. Almost all Russian troops stationed there since 2021 have been pulled out and moved to the Ukrainian front. Nizhnikau said Putin is counting on Wagner mercenaries as emergency combat units, should the need arise.

"It's important to Putin that he maintains at least some presence in Belarus. I believe he's paranoid of color revolutions, thinking the West could topple any pro-Russian government in the region," he explained.

Referring to last year's failed mutiny, Nizhnikau added that mercenaries had "learned their lesson," and that they knew they would face death if they resisted orders from the Kremlin.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Long, but good:

Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’s Advantage in 2024 - War on the Rocks

This winter, Ukraine’s military is visibly running on fumes, as recent reporting shows M109 Paladin artillery outside Bakhmut receiving only smoke shells

warontherocks.com

Failure does not mean the war will resolve itself into a frozen conflict. Ukraine may begin losing the war this year, as Russian advantages multiply into 2025 and 2026. In 2024, the West faces a critical choice. Otherwise, as our colleague Jack Watling recently argued, the West will cede an irrecoverable advantage to Russia in this war. A defeat would see Moscow impose its will on Ukraine and walk away from the war believing that it had effectively exhausted and defeated the West. Despite the strategic cost to Russia, Ukraine would lose territory and would bear a higher burden for the war in population and economic losses. While Russia will pose an enduring military threat to European security in either scenario, a Russia that suffers a costly defeat is clearly preferable to an emboldened Moscow that is able to recover without having to worry about Ukraine’s armed forces.

This is a sobering reality, but this outcome is not inevitable. However, it will take hard political choices to bring this situation about both in Ukraine and in the West. Key decisions have to be made this year, the earlier the better, in order to put the war on a more positive trajectory. To succeed, Ukraine and the West must align expectations and articulate a clear vision for the next 18 months: what we are building toward, how, and what the theory of success is moving forward. Without a long-term strategy, it will be difficult to achieve unity of effort and manage scarce resources. If in 2024 Ukraine is able to exhaust Russian forces at the peak of Russian defense spending, then retake the initiative and inflict a series of defeats on the Russian military in 2025, it could establish the necessary leverage over Moscow in this war. This would require putting Russia’s military position in jeopardy, replacing Russian confidence with uncertainty. The goal is war termination, on favorable terms for Ukraine, and in a manner that ensures a durable peace or the Ukrainian ability to secure it down the line. A defeat would see Ukraine irrevocably lose territory, with Russia able to impose the peace on its own terms in a manner that would limit Ukraine’s sovereignty. Attaining the necessary advantage to achieve this is feasible by 2025. Much depends on sustained Western support and choices made now.

Our man in Brussels: The Insider has unmasked the GRU officer helping the Kremlin evade sanctions from his base in the heart of Europe

Russian military intelligence (GRU) officer Viktor Labin has set up shop in Brussels, home to the European Commission and NATO headquarters. From his office in a nondescript seven-story building on the outskirts of the Belgian capital, Labin supplies Russian arms manufacturers with European-made...

theins.press

Russian military intelligence (GRU) officer Viktor Labin has set up shop in Brussels, home to the European Commission and NATO headquarters. From his office in a nondescript seven-story building on the outskirts of the Belgian capital, Labin supplies Russian arms manufacturers with European-made coordinate-measuring machines, a high-tech machine tool critical in the production of the Kremlin’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile. The sanctions-busting operation has become a family business. Labin’s younger son runs the Moscow-based middleman that delivers his father’s shipments to end users in Russia, while his elder son pitches in by organizing pro-Kremlin protests across Europe. Despite the Labin family’s unabashed efforts to aid the Russian military-industrial complex, none of them has been placed on the European Union’s sanctions list.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1751142954905797072

FWIW on this grainy footage. We know Russia has in past transported Ukrainian PoWs on Il-76. We know they may have again this week. We do not know that this is plane that was shot down. Or that it was this leg of journey. Ukraine doesn’t look sure on any of this either by the way

https://twitter.com/OPolianichev/status/1751318422531506314

Russian occupational governor of the Zaporizhzhia region admits the Ukrainian language has been stripped of any official status and will never regain it. Ukrainian is effectively banished from public use in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1751392720143233208

Russian military reporter describes an interesting FPV tactic: Ukrainians place drones on the road, watch the cameras, and once they notice an incoming vehicle, they raise the drone and let the car drive into it.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1751364014477553768

Many Western analysts and politicians make a serious mistake in thinking that Russia already suffered a defeat in Ukraine. The reality is that Ukraine has serious problems in mobilization, economics, and demographics. The collapse of statehood and the cessation of the Ukrainian nation aren't merely theoretical concepts but potential goal that Russia can achieve if Ukraine won’t receive necessary support.

A peace deal with Russia that involves ceding territories would likely lead to the mobilization of local inhabitants into the Russian army, as seen in Donetsk, where the entire male population has been conscripted, and local estates and businesses were overtaken by Russians or their puppet government.

There exists no middle ground or partial solution. It's either Ukraine wins, or it faces not only the loss of statehood but also the erosion of its national identity through forceful Russification.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

‘The enemy is amassing’: Ukrainian army officials give unvarnished account of the battlefield

A series of comments by Ukrainian military officials and spokespeople on Saturday provided an unvarnished assessment of Ukraine’s current position on the battlefield, describing offensive Russian operations along much of the front line.

Fighting is intense in the northeast along a stretch of territory where the regions of Kharkiv and Luhansk meet.

Earlier this week, Ukraine announced it had withdrawn its forces from the village of Krokhmalne to take up more advantageous defensive positions on higher ground.

Reports suggest Russian forces continue to press in the area.

A readout from the Army General Staff on its Facebook page said Ukrainian forces had faced down 13 attacks on the settlements of Tabaiivka and Stelmakhivka, to the northwest and south, respectively, of Krokhmalne.

Commenting on fighting there, a spokesman for Land Forces Command told Ukrainian television, “The enemy is focusing on a large number of artillery attacks, trying to advance.”

These small settlements, about 100 kilometers (62 miles) east of Kharkiv, lie close to a major north-south waterway, the Oskil river, and were all liberated by Ukrainian forces in the late summer of 2022, after almost six months of Russian occupation.

Further southeast, the area around Bakhmut, which was the overwhelming focus of Russia’s winter offensive exactly a year ago, Ukrainian forces also report coming under increased pressure.

Describing the posture of Russia’s forces to the southwest of the city, around the largely destroyed villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka, Sergeant Oles Maliarevych of the 92nd Separate Brigade told Ukrainian television: “The enemy is amassing forces … they assault every day.”

He highlighted the huge threat now posed by drones, the impact of which on the battlefield has grown significantly over the past year. The Russians, he said, have significantly more drones than Ukraine, including drones equipped with night vision.

Ukraine levels up the fight with drone strikes deep into Russia

Unable to match Putin’s military might, Ukraine is engaging in ‘smart warfare’ to attack the enemy’s oil and gas supply lines

www.theguardian.com

The Russians seem increasingly worried. The oil and gas industry – which fuelled Russia’s comeback on the world stage – now looks like an achilles heel.

Days after the strike near St Petersburg, local authorities warned of further incidents. “A high-alert regime has been declared at critical infrastructure facilities in all districts,” the Leningrad region’s press service announced on the Telegram messaging app.

The attacks have another advantage for Ukraine’s hard-pressed military. They have forced Russia to move some air defence assets away from the frontline to defend newly in-range cities. There are growing dilemmas too for Russia’s general staff. Meanwhile, drones flying overhead are an increasingly common sight, forcing ordinary Russians to take notice of a war many prefer to ignore.

According to Anders Åslund, a former Atlantic Council senior fellow, Sullivan has advised Zelenskiy not to try to recapture Crimea or to strike the Kerch Bridge that connects the occupied peninsula with Russian territory. Sullivan’s apparent reasoning is that this may spark a nuclear war. Kyiv, however, does not agree and frequently targets Crimea.

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1750497460143657058

In this tweet, I will elaborate on Russia’s strategy in 2024.

Here is the strategic outlook:

Russia’s major effort will remain to capture all of Donbas and consolidate its control over newly occupied territories of Ukraine, cementing the occupation regimes there. 1/18
Furthermore, Moscow will continue to erase Ukrainian identity through “Russification” including indoctrination in schools, forced passportization, eradication of the Ukrainian culture, etc. in the occupied areas. 2/18
- Russia will persistently carry out missile and drone strikes against Ukraine for 3 main reasons: 1. Instill fear and demoralize civilians in order to diminish support for the resistance and the will to fight. 3/18
2. Undercut Ukraine’s military-industrial output 3. Target both commercial and military supply lines and key military infrastructure. 4/18
- Russia will attempt to reestablish control over the Western part of the Black Sea after retreating due to the successful Ukrainian air, naval and drone strikes. 5/18
Moscow is expected to undermine Ukrainian grain exports, which returned nearly to pre-war levels, in order to further exert pressure on Kyiv and destabilize its economy. 6/18
- Putin is strongly convinced he can outlast and outmaneuver Ukraine’s partners, especially after reaching a new equilibrium following the mutiny, failing to meet initial strategic goals and withstanding sanctions and economic pressure. 10/18
- Russia’s vital interest remains to have enhanced military cooperation with Iran and North Korea to preserve numerical superiority, especially in terms of artillery shells. 11/18
Due to the North Korean supplies, Russia is currently able to fire 10,000 shells a day, as opposed to Ukrainians firing a reduced 2,000 daily as a result of dwindling support. 12/18
- DPRK is facing an acute food crisis and shortages of fuel and oil. It also has a need for sophisticated Russian military technology. All these factors enable Moscow to acquire more ballistic missiles from Pyongyang. 13/18
- Reorienting and pivoting to China is crucial for Russia’s wartime economy. Last year, the trade between the two countries exponentially grew, hitting unprecedented levels. Russia receives almost 80% of its components, especially electronics from or through China. 14/18
China will remain cautious and reserved in its approach to Russia’s full-scale invasion as Beijing has a lot more at stake politically and financially than DPRK or Iran. 15/18
A lot of discussions lately about Russia potentially attacking the Baltic countries in the coming years, however, in the short term, Moldova is facing an acute threat of destabilization from Russia as it prepares for upcoming presidential elections. 16/18
Georgia could also be a target for Russian interference, especially if the ruling Georgian Dream party loses parliamentary elections in October. 17/18
The key question is what the West should do to counter Russian ambitions in 2024. I will propose the steps in a follow-up tweet. 18/18

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Experts: Drone strikes in Russia highlight quality of Ukrainian intelligence

According to security experts, Ukraine's successful drone strikes against Russian infrastructure over the past week demonstrate both the effectiveness of Ukrainian intelligence and the vulnerability of Russia's air defenses. Russia may now be forced to redeploy some of its air defense systems...

news.err.ee

According to security experts, Ukraine's successful drone strikes against Russian infrastructure over the past week demonstrate both the effectiveness of Ukrainian intelligence and the vulnerability of Russia's air defenses. Russia may now be forced to redeploy some of its air defense systems and focus on maintaining strategic capabilities on its own territory.

In the past week, Ukraine has managed to carry out three significant drone strikes against Russian infrastructure. In Leningrad Oblast, the energy exporting port of Ust-Luga was hit, as was a military industrial plant in Tula Oblast and a Rosneft oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai.

"The Ukrainians have good intelligence. The Ukrainians are able to bypass Russian air defenses and hit targets very accurately and effectively," said Col. Eero Rebo, chief of the General Staff of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF).

"Looking at how these Ust-Luga attacks have appeared here, I would dare to suggest that it has been a case here too of a group of men or women coming close and then shooting down these drones from a short distance," security expert Rainer Saks said.

Ukraine's great strength is target detection and, according to Saks, they are trying to demonstrate that they are capable of attacking sensitive targets all over Russia. This could put a lot of pressure on both the Russian internal security forces and the country's leadership.

"If Russia is forced to concentrate on maintaining and reinforcing its air defenses and other such strategic capabilities on its own territory, it will make the situation much easier for Ukrainian troops on the front line," Saks said.

According to Col. Rebo, Russia having to move some of its air defense systems away from the front line cannot be ruled out.

He added however, that while drones are playing an increasingly important role in the war, they are not the most important factor. Ukraine's infantry and its artillery troops, who are holding the front line, are the ones shaping the main operations.

"The weather at the moment also gives an advantage to the armored forces. Once again, after a muddy period, as the ground hardens, it is possible to deploy a significant amount of different armored vehicles, including tanks," Rebo said.

Due to the delay in receiving Western support, the Ukrainians are currently fighting with whatever they still have available, Col. Rebo said. They are also, for instance, trying to produce their own missiles.

"When we talk about self-produced here, Ukraine has a perfectly sizeable military-industrial potential," the EDF colonel said.

When they are not being used on Russian territory, Ukraine also has Western long-range missiles.

Thread: https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1750631877856108950

Frontelligence Insight tracked logistical routes between Russia and North Korea, calculated delivery numbers, and identified storage points. We are disclosing North Korea’s ammo transport ecosystem – and revealing some of its crucial nodes for the first time.

Thread:
2/ Frontelligence Insight has estimated the number of ammunition deliveries between September and December to be approximately 1.57 million artillery shells, combining 152mm and 122mm ammo.
3/ Evident from recent imagery, since October 2023, 20 ft shipping containers filled with ammunition are loaded onto sea vessels at Raijin port (Rason) and shipped to Dunai port near Vladivostok in Russia’s far east.
4/ Ammo shipments from North Korea in 2024 are observed in January imagery. Containers offloaded at Dunai port are transported by trucks to the port's railroad branch. Russians then load these containers onto trains for transportation across Russia to locations near Ukraine.
5/ Upon arrival in Russia, the artillery ammo in containers is directed to at least three identified locations where Russians store and distribute it:

- Tikhoretsk ammunition storage
- Mozdok ammunition storage
- Yegorlykskaya airfield
6/ The Tikhoretsk ammo depot in Rostov Oblast, serves as a consistent artillery ammo storage during the war. Satellite imagery from mid-August 2023 shows Russians preparing revetments for storage, with documented arrivals of 20 ft cargo containers by September
7/ Unlike the Tikhoretsk ammo depot, Mozdok is over 600 km away from the Ukrainian border, making immediate delivery of ammo to the frontlines unlikely. It might potentially function as storage for ballistic missiles used against Ukraine on December 30, 2023, and January 2, 2024
8/ The Frontelligence Insight team analyzed satellite imagery of the area, determining that the initial shipments arrived at Mozdok in early October 2023. Like the Tikhoretsk ammo depot, containers are transported via trains and subsequently unloaded near the ammunition site.
9/ Yegorlykskaya airfield

Yegorlykskaya, a small rural town in Rostov Oblast, about 90 km from the Tikhoretsk Ammo Depot, discreetly serves as an additional ammunition storage site. Unlike other known locations, Yegorlykskaya has no previous associations with ammo storage
10/ By October, objects resembling crates and containers began to appear in the area. The timeline, discreet location near the railroad, and the appearance of objects resembling containers in revetments strongly indicate that this location is likely associated with ammo logistics
11/ After arriving at the designated locations, the ammunition is transported using civilian and military trucks. The destination includes specific military units or temporary makeshift ammo dumps approximately halfway to the intended unit.
12/ Given that Russia produced approximately 2 million artillery rounds in 2023 and received approximately 1.57 million rounds from North Korea, it’s likely that Russia will continue to increase its domestic production while covering current needs through foreign deliveries
13/ While these numbers may not enable Russia to use artillery as extensively as in 2022, they still provide Russia with an artillery firepower advantage when considering the Ukrainian ammo situation.

Video of explosion in Krynky: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1751354673397666071

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Taiwan has become the Russian arms industry’s main source for high precision machine tools

Despite its publicly pro-Ukrainian position, Taiwan has become Russia’s most important supplier of high-precision metalworking machines, The Insider has discovered as part of a joint investigation carried out with Taiwanese outlet The Reporter. Following the start of Russia’s full-scale...

theins.ru

Despite its publicly pro-Ukrainian position, Taiwan has become Russia’s most important supplier of high-precision metalworking machines, The Insider has discovered as part of a joint investigation carried out with Taiwanese outlet The Reporter. Following the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, German, Japanese, and Swiss machine tools manufacturers all left the Russian market, and Chinese substitutes proved to be of inferior quality. However, Taiwanese machining centers, lathes, and electrical discharge machines have since filled the gap, satisfying the needs of the Russian military-industrial complex. The Taiwanese technology has proven indispensable in the production of fuses, precision weapons, and other Russian military hardware. Sanctions imposed by the Taiwanese government have not remedied this situation, as the machine tools themselves are shipped to Russia via third countries, including Turkey. And in some cases, critical machinery is not subject to restrictions at all.

From scones to drones: inside Putin’s arms race that is leaving the West behind

As Moscow turns bakeries and even classrooms into tools to ramp up weapons production, Nato is struggling to keep up

www.telegraph.co.uk

So far, Russia’s output is unlikely to deliver enough material for it to return to the general offensive in 2024. It has taken too much of a mauling in the previous two years to generate a credible attacking force.
But the Kremlin is thinking beyond the end of this year.
“They are talking about mobilising their defence industry over the next three years, which implies they are looking to fight the war for at least three to four years,” said a defence insider.
“We are at a moment where the Russians are vulnerable because production does not meet their demands. But they will turn a corner,” he added.

“We need to recognise the fact that Russia has succeeded in firing up its military-industrial complex and adjusted to a wartime economy. With North Korea and Iran, Putin has reliable suppliers of military equipment that don’t care the slightest for their own people’s needs,” said Norbert Röttgen, a former chairman of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee.
“If we do not manage to decisively ramp up our support of Ukraine so it can militarily win the upper hand against Russia, there is no guarantee that Russian aggression will not spread to other European states. Supporting Ukraine now is our best defence against Russia.”

Evading Western sanctions adds extra costs to each component but for Russia, this is not an issue as long as the supplies continue.
Take the KH series air-launched cruise missiles, the most common in Russia’s stockpiles and roughly comparable to the US Tomahawk.
“They are manufactured using CNC machines, which is one of the points where we’re applying pressure to deprive them of this capacity,” said Aleksei Parnowski, a senior researcher at the Space Research Institute in Kyiv.
“The second important point is the electronics on board the missile. They are using general-purpose electronic components, not necessarily military grade. As a result, there is now no real difference between military-grade and consumer-grade electronics.”
“They [Russia] realised that a long time ago and have been converting almost all of their military-purpose electronics to work with consumer-grade components. This was a very effective approach since there are no sanctions in place to purchase general-purpose electronic components. They can buy them through a series of intermediaries.”

Fragments of missiles, used in attacks on Ukrainian cities this month, inspected by Ukrainian experts have shown that the munitions were produced in December 2023.
“This means they’re going straight from the production line and they have virtually no stockpiles left,” Mr Parnowski said.
“For this reason, the attack rate this winter is much, much lower than last winter. We were expecting much worse. This didn’t happen. They have to accumulate missiles for several weeks and then they can do one or two attacks.”

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1751536831324102857

Ukraine’s Deep State war monitoring service confirms that the Russians have seized the hamlet of Tabaivka in Kharkiv region, moving slightly closer to the Oskil river. Deep State suggests this breakthrough might compel the Ukrainians to retreat to the next line of defence.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1751495386026414511

On 22 Jan 2024, Russian authorities reported there had been 220 attacks on military enlistment offices since the conflict began in Feb 2022. Other statistics from media outlet Mediazona reported 113 attacks on enlistment offices recorded since 26 July 2023. Taken together, these statistics indicate a doubling of arson attacks on enlistment offices over the last six months.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin accuses those responsible for the arson attacks of acting at the behest of Western officials. However, the increase in attacks is highly likely due to a greater sense of disaffection with the war amongst the Russian population and especially those who would be mobilised should a second wave of mobilisation be announced. Some of those accused of perpetrating such attacks have been charged with terrorism and treason.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1752016775430983683

I’m told by Ukrainian govt source that reports of the firing of top general Valery Zaluzhny look to be true. We await confirmation by presidential order - but this appears to be a done deal.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1752029634299085248

So far, rumors about Zelensky firing Zaluzhny are just that — rumors. Nothing has been announced.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1752024876280418711

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense says: "No, this is not true". Of course, that's about the alleged dismissal of General Zaluzhny.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1752026253907935604

UNCONFIRMED reports at moment regarding fate of Ukraine's commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny. I've also heard from sources it's 'true' he's fired & 'not yet.' Ukrainian media claims a decree dismissing him but not yet published. MoD tells media 'not true.'

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1752024560503816502

Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov (a Zaluzhny ally who often criticizes Zelensky) says the presidential order firing Zaluzhny is already signed, but Ze is allegedly “consulting foreign partners” before announcing the decision officially.

 

[themeistersinger]

Kyiv’s Allies Need to Rethink Ukraine’s Victory Strategy - The Moscow Times

Opinion | The new year and approaching anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine have put the spotlight on the West’s strategy for supporting the country.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Opinion: How many tanks does Russia have left?

How many tanks does Russia really have left? This question has come up quite frequently in discussions, and it’s simply impossible to find a precise answer – Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov probably don’t even know. But this doesn’t deter us

kyivindependent.com

 

[themeistersinger]

How Ukraine destroys Russia's Black Sea Fleet one ship at a time

Video

The Kyiv Independent

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s Armed Forces will be able to train 500,000 mobilised troops – officer

Ukraine has the ability to train any number of personnel determined by the new law on mobilisation, which may be adopted soon.

www.pravda.com.ua

Ukraine has the ability to train any number of personnel determined by the new law on mobilisation, which may be adopted soon.

Source: Major General Viktor Nikoliuk, Commander of the Training Department at Ground Forces Command, in an interview with the Radio Liberty project Donbas.Realii

Quote: "500,000, 100,000, 200,000 – whatever the law on mobilisation will determine, we are ready.

Today, for example, we are constantly conducting relevant activities and holding meetings to clarify the actual capabilities of all training centres and the actual conditions of the instructor staff because many of them are involved in combat missions.

But as of today, we are able to train any number of personnel."

Details: Nikoliuk said that as of now, 20% of the military have been trained abroad, while the rest have been trained in Ukraine.

The major general added that Ukraine is "several years ahead of those who train it" in terms of combat experience.

"Of course, we are sharing this experience, but it should be borne in mind that it does not stand still. Any war is changing, and these subtleties must be taken into account," said Nikoliuk.

Answering the question of which specialists are most in demand in the army now, the major general replied that it’s infantry.

"This is the infantry that pushes forward, that attacks, that entrenches itself in a trench, that holds positions, that enters enemy positions, that repels the enemy. The most massive training in the Ground Forces is that of an infantryman. Without belittling their role, drone operators, tankers, artillerymen, mortar men, and everyone else is very important. But today, it is the infantry," he said.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1752296187204440132

Was the Zaluzhnyi firing story "fake"? Ukrainian newspaper Dzerkalo Tyzhnia says Zelensky did meet with him on Monday and asked him to resign. Zaluzhnyi refused, says the paper, and pointed out that Ze will need the defense minister's support to oust him.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1752350825509163092

FT: "Zelenskyy on Monday offered Valeriy Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, a new role but the general refused, according to four people familiar with the discussion...Zelenskyy had not dismissed Zaluzhny and might not do so for some time"

"But four people with knowledge of the situation told the Financial Times that a decision had been made in Zelenskyy’s office to dismiss Zaluzhny from his post...The president then notified Zaluzhny that he would soon be dismissed and offered him a role as a government adviser"

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1752384472576622624

The early reports were correct. “A former senior Ukrainian official said Mr. Zelensky’s gov’t had been planning on dismissing the general, but backed off Monday evening when the news was leaked. Now they were slowing down the process, the official said.”

“A Ukrainian member of Parliament … briefed on the plans gave a similar account, saying the two men met Monday night but no decision was made. One of the sticking points for the gov’t was that there was no immediate replacement to take Zaluzhny’s place, the person said.”

https://twitter.com/tonyhalpin/status/1751982689970708736

Russia is considering an indefinite extension of wartime capital controls introduced to ease pressure on the ruble, despite objections from the central bank, sources say

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1751936128813302259

Planned mobile Internet outages in several Russian regions in recent days is linked to the “configuration of law enforcement anti-drone and air defense equipment,” industry sources told Kommersant — not routine technical work, as the authorities said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Zelensky's rivalry with Zaluzhny spells bad news for Ukraine

it appears that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has decided not to dismiss his commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny.

www.spectator.co.uk

A highly-placed European diplomat working on the Ukraine issue messaged me last night in horror and bewilderment, saying that their embassy in Kyiv had been sounded out yesterday about a military reshuffle. This morning they reported that ‘Bankova’ – slang for the presidential administration, whose offices are on the street of that name – ‘seems to have regained its senses. What were they thinking?’

The presidential chief of staff, Andry Yermak, appears wary of the ‘Iron General’ – he is the only public figure who approaches Zelensky for national popularity (in a poll at the end of last year, 98 per cent of respondents expressed trust in him, compared to a still-stratospheric 93 per cent for the president). Although elections scheduled for this year are not set to be held, this would not necessarily stop Yermak, whom one insider described as ‘always in campaign mode’. Despite the steady litany of praise heaped on Zelensky, there also seems to have been a degree of resentment at the way he sometimes had to share the international limelight with Zaluzhny, such as when Politico said he would ‘enter Ukrainian military lore as a historic figure.’
There is little real evidence that Zaluzhny is actively contemplating any kind of a political challenge. This is despite the charitable foundation he created back in 2022, widely regarded as the first step in establishing the basis for a political movement.
Instead, the animus seems to come from the presidential administration. The first real bone of contention was the plan for last year’s counter-offensive which, while not a total failure, did not take back much territory. Ukraine was able to seriously degrade many Russian capabilities and reopen the Black Sea, but the counter-offensive was clearly much less successful than hoped and planned. Zaluzhny, in concert with British and American military liaisons, had wanted to focus on a push to the south, to try and break the ‘land bridge’ to Crimea. Zelensky, though, insisted on a broad attack right across the front. In hindsight, this meant lots of smaller-scale operations which could largely be foiled by the Russian defensive line.
When Zaluzhny later described the outcome as a ‘stalemate’, Zelensky’s team treated this as a criticism of the president’s strategy. Zelensky publicly rebuked him as over-pessimistic and the newly-appointed defence minister Rustem Umerov began dismissing and reassigning officers close to Zaluzhny.

While no one is entirely irreplaceable, the presumed candidates to replace Zaluzhny do not appear to be of his stature. The army commander Oleksandr Syrsky is considered to be much more Zelensky’s man, but lacks Zaluzhny’s standing amongst the military. Alternatively, the youthful and ambitious head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, has charisma and verve but no experience commanding larger-scale operations. Whatever the situation, the tensions between ‘Ze’ and ‘Za’ appear both real and genuinely politically destabilising.

Chart: https://twitter.com/S_VanTeutem/status/1752347353976091069

Shocking chart in @FT today. As percentage of GDP, Poland has committed more 10x as much as France in bilateral aid, and Norway more than 26x!

In total, even Hungary has committed more than France (as % of GDP though, with a much smaller economy and mainly via EU aid).

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1752289266502082937

2 years into the 3-day special operation, rus. military reporter Kotenok, usually known for his victorious reports, asks not to "underestimate the enemy strength" in Avdiivka. Says evacuation and rotation for rus. forces equal a "feat".

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1752234375389876463

"The active work of anti-corruption and other public authorities resulted in a growth in the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index even during the full-scale war."
– @TransparencyUA

Ukraine hopes to avoid economic doomsday of not getting Western financial aid

Kyiv forced to look on in anguish as the U.S. and EU bicker over a new financial lifeline.

www.politico.eu

Ukrainians can’t bear to think what will happen if they don’t get the aid that EU leaders have promised to approve this week.

European heads of government are due to vote on a €50 billion aid facility for Kyiv on February 1. Without it, and a similar amount in funding due from the U.S., experts say Ukraine will not be able to keep fighting Russia, or sustain what remains of its battered economy, for long.

“We are not currently even considering an option of not receiving this assistance,” Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the finance and tax committee of the Ukrainian parliament, told POLITICO. “It is critical for us, because the timeliness and completeness of non-military spending depends on it.”

Kyiv currently uses what money it can raise domestically to run its own arms industry, pay its soldiers and other security personnel, and protect pensioners and the internally displaced. Western loans and grants cover outlays on the procurement and maintenance of foreign arms, as well as essential social сosts, such as salaries for public servants, and medical and educational workers. The government is planning for $37 billion in financial aid this year that would all-but cover a budget deficit estimated at $39 billion.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Good (long) read on drones:

How the West Can Match Russia in Drone Innovation - War on the Rocks

Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the use of AI for military operations has been one of the most debated topics across public media and the

warontherocks.com

Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the use of AI for military operations has been one of the most debated topics across public media and the open-source literature. But for all the praise Ukrainian innovation has garnered, there is too little recognition of how effective Russia’s more reckless approach to AI has been.

Ukrainian and Russian forces have used AI for decision-making and data analysis when processing information received from multiple sensors and observation points, including drones, uncrewed aerial vehicles, manned aircraft, satellites, and ground-based forces and systems. But there have also been differences in the way both sides employed AI. Ukrainian and Western AI has focused on fast identification, tracking, and targeting. Russia, in turn, has used loitering munitions, as well as different command and control and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems, to meet its need for precision targeting.

Put simply, the focus of Western AI-enabled systems is on the left side of the observe, orient, decide, and act loop. But while the West prioritizes faster targeting and enhanced warfighter capabilities, Russia is attempting to make strides to automate the entire kill chain. In short, Russia’s aggressive military and volunteer-driven AI use stands in contrast to the United States’ cautious and responsible, if under-resourced, approach. Now, the U.S. Department of Defense needs to urgently prioritize AI assurance to ethically compete in the dynamic AI battlefield.

https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1752321601872207941

"Russia’s economy will expand much more rapidly this year than previously expected, according to the IMF... Raising questions over the effectiveness of western sanctions aimed at depressing the Kremlin's fiscal revenues to finance its war in Ukraine."

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1752334601010446443

Yesterday, the AFU shot down a Russian Su-34 plane in the skies over the Luhansk region - General Staff spokesman Andrei Kovalyov.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1752300786829148372

The average daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine has risen by almost 300 during the course of 2023.

If the numbers continue at the current rate over the next year, Russia will have lost over half a million personnel in Ukraine.

Video here of drone on drone combat: https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1752272180035965422

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1752253157466370396

15 of 35 Shahed drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defense overnight - Air Force

The drones were reportedly trying to hit oil depots and military facilities near the front line and on the border with Russia.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1752079283953017046

Russian serviceman OSETIIN says Ukrainians now have access to a large number of FPV with night vision in Kherson/Zaporizhzhia frontline:

The Armed Forces have a lot of night FPVs in the Kherson/Zaporozhye directions, they hunt for all our vehicles at night. Be careful, bros.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1752289391672778972

Russian independent Telegram news channel Astra reported on 27 January 2024 that Russian aircraft had accidentally discharged two FAB-250 unguided munitions on two Russian villages in the Belgorod area. The first munition landed on a farm in Postnikov, whilst the second munition landed on an urban street in Strelestkoye village, prompting an evacuation of up to 150 civilians within a 500m radius.

This is the fourth Russian accidental aerial munition discharge on its own territory this month. In total, this is the fifth overall within a year, with the earliest occasion in Belgorod City on 20 April 2023.

It cannot be confirmed whether such incidents occur due to poor procedures when arming the aircraft prior to sorties or poor execution by aircrew during missions. It is likely a combination of both. The increasing frequency of these occurrences likely demonstrates a degree of air and ground crew fatigue within the Russian front line, as well as exposing inadequate training.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

New US-made longer-range bomb expected to arrive as soon Wednesday in Ukraine

The Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb doesn't even exist in the U.S. inventory.

www.politico.com

The Pentagon has successfully tested a new long-range precision bomb for Ukraine that is expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as Wednesday, according to a U.S. official and three other people with knowledge of the talks.

Ukraine will receive its first batch of Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, a brand new long-range weapon made by Boeing that even the U.S. doesn’t have in its inventory, according to the four people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss matters ahead of an announcement.
The new bomb, which can travel about 90 miles, is expected to be “a significant capability for Ukraine,” said the U.S. official.

“It gives them a deeper strike capability they haven’t had, it complements their long-range fire arsenal,” the U.S. official said. “It’s just an extra arrow in the quiver that’s gonna allow them to do more.”

Complex Weapons Innovation - Royal Aeronautical Society

As MBDA looks towards the future of deep strike weapon technology, JACK RICHARDSON reports from the pan-European missile house’s facilities in Germany as well as the Complex Weapons Innovation and Technology Partnership conference in Edinburgh.

www.aerosociety.com

According to MBDA, full integration of the Taurus (which has a range of over 500km and a 480kg warhead) on Ukrainian aircraft could be done in as little as 12 months. Already utilised on Germany’s Tornado IDS, Spain’s EF-18 Hornet and South Korea’s F-15K Slam Eagle, the first two have also signed contracts to fit it to their Eurofighter Typhoon fleets. Joachim Knopf, Managing Director of Taurus Systems described the missile as “basically a bunker buster weapon.”. With this capability, the reason for Ukraine’s interest is apparent. An animation at the briefing depicted Taurus being used to destroy not only hardened targets, but aircraft on an open airfield in airburst mode. This is a weapon with a clear roadmap for the future with plans for a two-way datalink and artificial intelligence for the seeker, adding to innovative features such as the swept wing extending range by up to 10%.

However, Ukraine’s hopes for Taurus received a major setback in mid-January when the German Parliament overwhelmingly voted against a non-binding proposal to supply the missiles to Kyiv – by 485 to 178. As pixel goes to page, it has been reported that the UK government has offered a missile swap, where Germany would deliver Taurus to Britain, which then would pass surplus Storm Shadows on to Ukraine. Final approval for either proposal rests with German Chancellor Olaf Schulz.

Ukraine war: Nothing but rubble in shattered ghost town Avdiivka

After months of fighting in Avdiivka, residents are reporting that Russian troops have entered the town.

www.bbc.com

After months of fierce fighting, small groups of Russian troops have reached the heavily damaged eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka and are trying to gain a foothold there.

The small number of civilians left have been fleeing the town in greater numbers under relentless fire, and as Ukrainian forces try to repel the attacks.

Avdiivka is a gateway to the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk. It has been effectively on the front line since 2014 when the conflict in eastern Ukraine started.

All attempts by Russian troops to advance there have failed. Until now.

Residents who have fled and volunteers who try to evacuate others from Avdiivka told the BBC that Russian troops had recently seized several streets in the southern part of the town.

One volunteer, who wished to remain anonymous, claimed they were first seen in the outskirts on 19 January.

"Some people managed to get out from those areas but it was two days ago," he said. "Now, no-one is coming out. We are only getting information that there are bodies on the streets but it's too dangerous to go there."

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian troops could disappear as Kremlin touts 'invisibility cloak'

Russia has started field testing the "cloak-nevidimka," which absorbs body heat in order to mask against thermal detection and has applications for snipers and infantry troops alike.

www.foxnews.com

 

[themeistersinger]

These are the most important Russian ships destroyed by Ukraine

One of the most unexpected developments of the full-scale invasion was how many big, expensive Russian ships were taken out by Ukraine, a country that technically has no navy. Around 20% of Russia’s Black Sea fleet has been destroyed as of December 2023, according to National Security and Defense

kyivindependent.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Corresponding from Ukraine | National Review

A talk with Yaroslav Trofimov, the chief foreign-affairs correspondent of the Wall Street Journal.

www.nationalreview.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Corresponding from Ukraine | National Review

A talk with Yaroslav Trofimov, the chief foreign-affairs correspondent of the Wall Street Journal.

www.nationalreview.com

Trofimov wrote a great book on the Ukraine War. Recently released. Been reading it as of late. Pretty good.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/31/zelensky-zaluzhny-ukraine-commander-ousted/?itid=hp-foryou-readinghistory_p006_f008

Zaluzhny’s popularity — both within the military and among ordinary citizens — makes his removal a political gamble for Zelensky. It also poses strategic risks at a time when Russia has intensified its attacks and Western security assistance for Kyiv has slowed. The general has built strong rapport with his Western counterparts and has often been able to advocate directly for certain materiel and seek counsel on battlefield strategy.

In their conversation Monday, Zelensky told Zaluzhny that Ukrainians have grown tired of war and that the country’s international backers have also slowed military assistance, so perhaps a new commander would rejuvenate the situation, the person familiar with their conversation said.
Two individuals spoke about the meeting on the condition of anonymity to be candid about the highly sensitive situation with unpredictable implications for the war and Ukraine’s security. Senior members of Zaluzhny’s staff are also expected to be removed, one person said.

In Monday’s meeting, differences between the two boiled over because of disagreement about how many soldiers Ukraine needs to mobilize this year, according to the two people familiar with the exchange.
Zaluzhny proposed mobilizing close to 500,000 troops, a figure Zelensky viewed as impractical given the scarcity of uniforms, guns and training facilities and the potential challenges related to recruitment, the people said. Zelensky has also said publicly that Ukraine lacks the funds to pay so many new conscripts.
Zaluzhny countered that Ukraine is already short of forces because of mounting casualties and needs to match 400,000 new soldiers that Russia plans to mobilize, one person familiar with the conversation said.
Andrii, a deputy battalion commander, denounced Zaluzhny’s expected removal with an epithet. Andrii, like other soldiers, is being identified only by his first name because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
Zaluzhny “has sensible thoughts on mobilization,” Andrii said. “People are like, ‘We don’t need mobilization — everything is just fine there,’ but they’re not … here. They don’t know what’s happening here.”
It was not immediately clear who will replace the 50-year-old Zaluzhny.
One leading candidate is Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, 38-year-old Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov. His appointment would potentially signal a move toward asymmetric tactics — such as the drone strikes deep into Russian territory that Budanov has often ordered — in a war where the front lines have seen little change in more than a year. But Budanov, with a background in special forces, does not have experience as an army commander.
Another option is Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the 58-year-old commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, who was credited with leading the defense of Kyiv in the first month of the war and then orchestrating a successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region in fall 2022. But among rank-and-file soldiers, Syrsky is especially disliked, considered by many to be a Soviet-style commander who kept forces under fire too long in the eastern city of Bakhmut when Ukraine should have withdrawn.

Both Budanov and Syrsky are considered favorites of Zelensky and Andriy Yermak, the chief of the presidential office and Zelensky’s closest adviser. Nearer the front, however, there seems to be little appetite for change.
“My personal opinion is you can’t do something like this right now — Zaluzhny is someone 80 percent of the military considers a good authority,” said Oleksandr, a battalion commander fighting in eastern Ukraine.
“For what is he being removed? It’s not clear. And who will replace him? Syrsky? God, I hope not. No one in the army likes Syrsky,” Oleksandr added.
Zaluzhny was offered another post but declined, and he plans to retire from the military, according to the senior official. Reached by The Post, Zaluzhny declined to comment.
For now, he remains in the top job, and the formal order dismissing him could be delayed. Last year, the head of Zelensky’s faction in parliament announced that Oleksii Reznikov, then the defense minister, would be ousted, but Reznikov stayed in the post for months before being removed.
“This is a catastrophic step,” Oleksandr said. “When this becomes official, we’re screwed. The morale of both the military and society will go way down.”

“There’s only one explanation: The Zelensky government is just putting his missteps … on Zaluzhny’s shoulders,” said a soldier fighting in the besieged eastern city of Avdiivka. “Zelensky is just very dependent on ratings, and he understands completely that Zaluzhny’s rating right now is much higher than his own. And that’s it. I think that politics shouldn’t interfere with the military doing their work.”

“I don’t know who will be next, what kind of decisions were made, but maybe they just want to hear some good news from the head commander, like, ‘Everything is going dandy, it’s cool,’ but that’s not going to happen,” said Andrii, the deputy battalion commander.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1752742738594775249

Dangerous for an army to portray any general as unsackable. "Support for...Zaluzhny is close to universal among troops & a plan... to replace him...is dangerous to national security and the war effort, soldiers recently interviewed by Kyiv Post said."

Seems like Syrskyi declined the job: https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1752712794284142705

Ukraine's ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi was offered the job of replacing his boss Valeriy Zaluzhnyi as commander of the armed forces, but declined, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/budanov-ukraine-russia-war-intl/index.html

“We really need this aid,” Budanov told CNN.

Artillery systems – howitzers – were top of the list, with Ukraine needing a “sharp increase” in the number of guns, Budanov said, regardless of their age and type, as years of fighting take their toll on Ukraine’s long-range cannons.

Ammunition is vital too, he said, as “shells are one of the most decisive factors in this war.”

“Not so much the quality as the quantity,” he added. Ukraine has never managed to outgun Russian firepower, even after Moscow turned to North Korea to keep its ammunition flowing.

CNN has seen Western-made guns supplied with smoke shells instead of high-explosive munitions in Ukrainian frontline units, as shortages hit the battlefield.

But Ukraine is holding its own in the air above the frontlines, the spy chief said. With Russia continually learning from its combat experiences, the trend is for even greater use of unmanned drones on and above Ukraine’s battlefields.

“It is precisely in unmanned systems that we are more or less equal,” Budanov said. Ukrainian social media is bursting with footage from frontline troops showing drones spying on, attacking and even capturing Russian troops, although Moscow uses many of the same tactics.

Kyiv has also stepped up long-range attacks on targets inside Russia, with explosions reported at infrastructure sites outside major cities far from the Ukrainian border. Russian authorities claimed to have foiled dozens of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks since the new year.

But as Ukraine’s long-held hopes for F-16 jets come to fruition – with Kyiv’s pilots already training on the aircraft – Budanov echoed Ukraine’s newest request.

He wants to see ground-attack aircraft like the American A-10 in Ukrainian hands. “This is what can really help inflict a military defeat” on Russia, he said of the aging aircraft.

Budanov also wants the A-10 @Chadstroma

 

[Chadstroma]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/31/zelensky-zaluzhny-ukraine-commander-ousted/?itid=hp-foryou-readinghistory_p006_f008

Zaluzhny’s popularity — both within the military and among ordinary citizens — makes his removal a political gamble for Zelensky. It also poses strategic risks at a time when Russia has intensified its attacks and Western security assistance for Kyiv has slowed. The general has built strong rapport with his Western counterparts and has often been able to advocate directly for certain materiel and seek counsel on battlefield strategy.

In their conversation Monday, Zelensky told Zaluzhny that Ukrainians have grown tired of war and that the country’s international backers have also slowed military assistance, so perhaps a new commander would rejuvenate the situation, the person familiar with their conversation said.
Two individuals spoke about the meeting on the condition of anonymity to be candid about the highly sensitive situation with unpredictable implications for the war and Ukraine’s security. Senior members of Zaluzhny’s staff are also expected to be removed, one person said.

In Monday’s meeting, differences between the two boiled over because of disagreement about how many soldiers Ukraine needs to mobilize this year, according to the two people familiar with the exchange.
Zaluzhny proposed mobilizing close to 500,000 troops, a figure Zelensky viewed as impractical given the scarcity of uniforms, guns and training facilities and the potential challenges related to recruitment, the people said. Zelensky has also said publicly that Ukraine lacks the funds to pay so many new conscripts.
Zaluzhny countered that Ukraine is already short of forces because of mounting casualties and needs to match 400,000 new soldiers that Russia plans to mobilize, one person familiar with the conversation said.
Andrii, a deputy battalion commander, denounced Zaluzhny’s expected removal with an epithet. Andrii, like other soldiers, is being identified only by his first name because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
Zaluzhny “has sensible thoughts on mobilization,” Andrii said. “People are like, ‘We don’t need mobilization — everything is just fine there,’ but they’re not … here. They don’t know what’s happening here.”
It was not immediately clear who will replace the 50-year-old Zaluzhny.
One leading candidate is Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, 38-year-old Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov. His appointment would potentially signal a move toward asymmetric tactics — such as the drone strikes deep into Russian territory that Budanov has often ordered — in a war where the front lines have seen little change in more than a year. But Budanov, with a background in special forces, does not have experience as an army commander.
Another option is Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the 58-year-old commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, who was credited with leading the defense of Kyiv in the first month of the war and then orchestrating a successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region in fall 2022. But among rank-and-file soldiers, Syrsky is especially disliked, considered by many to be a Soviet-style commander who kept forces under fire too long in the eastern city of Bakhmut when Ukraine should have withdrawn.

Both Budanov and Syrsky are considered favorites of Zelensky and Andriy Yermak, the chief of the presidential office and Zelensky’s closest adviser. Nearer the front, however, there seems to be little appetite for change.
“My personal opinion is you can’t do something like this right now — Zaluzhny is someone 80 percent of the military considers a good authority,” said Oleksandr, a battalion commander fighting in eastern Ukraine.
“For what is he being removed? It’s not clear. And who will replace him? Syrsky? God, I hope not. No one in the army likes Syrsky,” Oleksandr added.
Zaluzhny was offered another post but declined, and he plans to retire from the military, according to the senior official. Reached by The Post, Zaluzhny declined to comment.
For now, he remains in the top job, and the formal order dismissing him could be delayed. Last year, the head of Zelensky’s faction in parliament announced that Oleksii Reznikov, then the defense minister, would be ousted, but Reznikov stayed in the post for months before being removed.
“This is a catastrophic step,” Oleksandr said. “When this becomes official, we’re screwed. The morale of both the military and society will go way down.”

“There’s only one explanation: The Zelensky government is just putting his missteps … on Zaluzhny’s shoulders,” said a soldier fighting in the besieged eastern city of Avdiivka. “Zelensky is just very dependent on ratings, and he understands completely that Zaluzhny’s rating right now is much higher than his own. And that’s it. I think that politics shouldn’t interfere with the military doing their work.”

“I don’t know who will be next, what kind of decisions were made, but maybe they just want to hear some good news from the head commander, like, ‘Everything is going dandy, it’s cool,’ but that’s not going to happen,” said Andrii, the deputy battalion commander.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1752742738594775249

Dangerous for an army to portray any general as unsackable. "Support for...Zaluzhny is close to universal among troops & a plan... to replace him...is dangerous to national security and the war effort, soldiers recently interviewed by Kyiv Post said."

Seems like Syrskyi declined the job: https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1752712794284142705

Ukraine's ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi was offered the job of replacing his boss Valeriy Zaluzhnyi as commander of the armed forces, but declined, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/budanov-ukraine-russia-war-intl/index.html

“We really need this aid,” Budanov told CNN.

Artillery systems – howitzers – were top of the list, with Ukraine needing a “sharp increase” in the number of guns, Budanov said, regardless of their age and type, as years of fighting take their toll on Ukraine’s long-range cannons.

Ammunition is vital too, he said, as “shells are one of the most decisive factors in this war.”

“Not so much the quality as the quantity,” he added. Ukraine has never managed to outgun Russian firepower, even after Moscow turned to North Korea to keep its ammunition flowing.

CNN has seen Western-made guns supplied with smoke shells instead of high-explosive munitions in Ukrainian frontline units, as shortages hit the battlefield.

But Ukraine is holding its own in the air above the frontlines, the spy chief said. With Russia continually learning from its combat experiences, the trend is for even greater use of unmanned drones on and above Ukraine’s battlefields.

“It is precisely in unmanned systems that we are more or less equal,” Budanov said. Ukrainian social media is bursting with footage from frontline troops showing drones spying on, attacking and even capturing Russian troops, although Moscow uses many of the same tactics.

Kyiv has also stepped up long-range attacks on targets inside Russia, with explosions reported at infrastructure sites outside major cities far from the Ukrainian border. Russian authorities claimed to have foiled dozens of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks since the new year.

But as Ukraine’s long-held hopes for F-16 jets come to fruition – with Kyiv’s pilots already training on the aircraft – Budanov echoed Ukraine’s newest request.

He wants to see ground-attack aircraft like the American A-10 in Ukrainian hands. “This is what can really help inflict a military defeat” on Russia, he said of the aging aircraft.

Budanov also wants the A-10 @Chadstroma

To be fair... Ukraine is not picky on what they will take. They essentially will take anything anyone is willing to give them. The logistics of it all has to be an absolute nightmare with so many different weapon systems to maintain, repair and support but they are making due.

There is a crap ton of stuff at Sierra Army Depot.... I would love to see a steady outflow from there to Ukraine. I am sure there is plenty of usable aircraft at the 309 Boneyard too. Make room and make the stuff useful.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia Behind Spike in European GPS Jamming, Baltic General Says

Russia is likely behind an increase in instances of jamming satellite signals used by airlines, smartphones and weapons systems in eastern Europe, according to a senior Baltic military commander.

www.bloomberg.com

Russia is likely behind an increase in instances of jamming satellite signals used by airlines, smartphones and weapons systems in eastern Europe, according to a senior Baltic military commander.
Martin Herem, the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, pointed the finger at the Kremlin for disrupting Global Positioning System signals as interference with satellite-based navigation systems has picked up in the Baltic region since last year. A particular surge has been registered this month in an area stretching from Finland to Poland to the Black Sea region.
“Someone is causing it and we think it’s Russia,” Herem said in an interview in Tallinn last week, adding that Moscow may be war-gaming jamming capability amid risks of a future potential conflict with North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “I think they are learning and testing.”

The Estonian commander said the jamming activity could also be carried out from ships in the Baltic Sea. In December, Polish aviation authorities warned pilots about disruption, while officials from Sweden and Finland said earlier this month that they’re probing the matter.
“Russia has demonstrated its electronic warfare capabilities elsewhere, not just in Ukraine and the Baltic countries,” Herem said. “They’re definitely quite strong in this.”

German politicians press Scholz on Taurus missiles delivery – DW – 01/30/2024

p.dw.com

Politicians from Germany's ruling coalition have increased pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz regarding the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.

"We should deliver Taurus cruise missiles quickly," Bundestag Vice President Katrin Göring-Eckardt of the Greens told the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung on Tuesday.

Germany must "measure itself against what we have promised. And we have promised that we will provide everything we can and that Ukraine needs. Taurus is what we have and what Ukraine needs now," she added.

Free Democratic Party (FDP) parliamentary group leader Christian Dürr also told the newspaper that supporting Kyiv with the missiles "would be sensible and right."

"We must always be aware that Ukraine is not only defending itself in the fight against Putin, but also the democratic values and convictions that we share," Dürr said.

Sounds like another attack on Crimea today:

Ukraine launches massive Storm Shadow missile attack on Crimea

Jets armed with British rockets strike at targets in annexed peninsula as Kyiv prepares to launch counter-offensive

www.telegraph.co.uk

Ukraine launched a massive missile barrage against four Russian military positions in occupied Crimea on Wednesday.

The head of Ukraine’s air force praised a “cleansing of Crimea from the Russian presence”. The Ukrainian air force’s involvement indicated that British Storm Shadow missiles fired from Kyiv’s jets were used in the raid.

It came a day after Ukrainian forces struck a radar station used by air defence systems in north-western Crimea.

Explosions and active surface-to-air interceptors were reported in the major port city of Sevastopol and the nearby military airfield of Belbek.

Footage of the strike at the Russian air base shared on social media appeared to show a huge plume of smoke rising into the sky. A second video showed another missile striking near the source of the smoke.

Lt Gen Mykola Oleshchuk, the head of Ukraine’s air force, said: “Ukrainian aviators will definitely return home to their native airfield. And now I thank everyone who joined the cleansing of Crimea from the Russian presence.”

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1752752402699014652

The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk appears to confirm Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian Belbek Air Base in the Crimea on Wednesday.

The Ukrainian 204th Sevastopol Tactical Aviation Brigade was stationed at the Belbek Air Base until the Russian annexation of the Crimea in 2014. It's flying on MiG-29 fighter jets.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1752598307434647569

CIA Director Bill Burns: ‘One thing I have learned is it is always a mistake to underestimate [Putin’s] fixation on controlling Ukraine and its choices. Without that control, he believes it is impossible for Russia to be a great power, him a great leader.’

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1752634987726156161

Shmyhal: Ukraine goes through winter using only its own gas for the first time.

"We currently have about 10 billion cubic meters of gas in storage. And we are going through this winter using exclusively Ukrainian-produced gas," PM Denys Shmyhal said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

National Security Daily

Although presidential elections have been delayed due to the war, Valery Zaluzhny is something of a folk hero in Ukraine — which could translate into electoral power.

www.politico.com

The reason he has so far been spared is that Zelenskyy is cautious about possibly creating a powerful political rival if Zaluzhny were fired, a person in Ukraine’s presidential office and another person familiar with the talks between the two said. The two were granted anonymity as they were not permitted to speak to the press.

The media fuss that has erupted appears to be “a controlled leak of information ahead of time,” possibly by Zaluzhny’s team or political actors trying to boost the general’s popularity, the person familiar with the talks said.

Although presidential elections have been delayed due to the war, Zaluzhny is something of a folk hero in Ukraine — which could translate into electoral power.

“So far, Zaluzhny has not decided to enter politics, but he is considering this option, and the president's office is afraid,” the person familiar with the talks said. “I know for a fact that Zaluzhny is going to be fired, but it was not supposed to happen on Monday and it didn't.”

Zaluzhny hasn’t spoken publicly about the sacking speculation, but an official close to him said: “Everything is alright.”

However, the person familiar with talks said the general’s position is not secure: “The more Zaluzhny's team is playing politics, the more determined Ukraine's office of the president is to get rid of him.”

EU to Ukraine: You’ll get half the ammo we promised by March

While the bloc will miss its delivery target, it now has the capacity to produce 1 million shells, EU officials said.

www.politico.eu

The European Union will only provide half of the promised 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine by March, but pledged to send 1.1 million shells by year's end.

“This is a work in progress, the whole machinery is working and member states are passing commands,” EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell told reporters after an informal meeting of member-country defense ministers in Brussels on Wednesday.

“Every day, it keeps evolving and increasing,” he said, specifying that Ukraine will get 524,000 shells by March.

While the EU will miss its target of delivering 1 million rounds of ammunition, European officials insist the Continent now has the capacity to produce that amount.

“We are already at this level today, in other words — we are two months ahead of schedule in our capacity to produce more ammunition in Europe, of course for Ukraine but also for our own security,” Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton said on the sidelines of the defense ministers’ meeting.

According to the commissioner from France, the EU's ammunition production capacity should hit 1.4 million rounds in 2024 before rising to 2 million rounds in 2025.

Ukraine Tells Allies Troops Are Outgunned Three-to-One by Russia

Ukraine has warned its allies that it is facing a “critical” shortage of artillery shells with Russia deploying three times as much firepower on the frontlines each day.

www.bloomberg.com

Ukraine has warned its allies that it is facing a “critical” shortage of artillery shells with Russia deploying three times as much firepower on the frontlines each day.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov wrote to his European Union counterparts this week describing the massive numerical disadvantage his troops are facing as they try to fight off fresh Russian assaults. He said Ukraine is unable to fire more than 2,000 shells a day across a frontline that stretches for 1,500 kilometers (930 miles), according to a document seen by Bloomberg. That’s less than a third of the ammunition Russia uses.

Robots Are Fighting Robots in Russia's War in Ukraine

Aerial drones have changed the war in Ukraine. Now, both Russia’s and Ukraine’s militaries are deploying more unmanned ground robots—and the two are colliding.

www.wired.com

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, small aerial drones have played an outsize role in the war in Ukraine—with thousands of drones being used to monitor the battlefield, watch enemy movements, and carry explosives. Videos produced by Ukrainian and Russian soldiers show the drones, which are often first-person view (FPV) drones, being used to attack tanks and troops. As the war has raged on, another kind of robot has increasingly appeared in recent months: the unmanned ground vehicle, or UGV.
“There’s lots of unmanned ground vehicle development happening,” says Samuel Bendett, a Russia analyst at the think tank Center for Naval Analyses who tracks military drone and robotics technology use. Most of the UGVs being developed or used are small robots, Bendett says, as larger vehicles will be tracked, observed, and attacked with FPV and other aerial drones. “The Ukrainian battlefield is saturated with aerial sensors that basically track and attack anything that moves,” he says. That includes other robots.
The UGVs being developed within the war are typically four- or six-wheeled machines that can be kitted out for multiple purposes. There are logistics robots, which can carry supplies to the front lines; evacuation robots that carry injured people; and robots linked to combat such as those that can place or destroy landmines and have explosives or weapons attached. These robots are largely remote-controlled by humans—there’s little autonomy—and operate over ranges of a few kilometers.
UGVs themselves are not new. Some of the earliest UGVs were created in World War II and used as explosive devices, while they have also appeared in other conflicts. Most Russian UGV developments so far have been homemade or DIY, Bendett says, with troops or volunteers creating robots for specific tasks or needs. Ukraine has, to date, put more military effort into developing ground robots, with the government stating its ambition to build an “army of robots.”

 

[Chadstroma]

I am really concerned about the lack of material support that Ukraine has received as of late. Numerous reporting has shown the issues that are impacting their combat effectiveness such as severe munitions rationing for artillery.

The leadership to rally around Ukraine is severely lacking. It can't just be the US and it seems many NATO allies have not supported them as much as they have, Poland being a glaring example, going from one of the leading suppliers to Ukraine to next to nothing.