* Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun * (1 Viewer)

Chadstroma · Dec 26, 2023

The Z Machine said:
BTW, how is the UKR anti-air batteries mow able to down RUS bombers that they weren't before?

They got another Patriot system from.... I want to say Germany.... deployed it forward and got to work.

Chadstroma · Dec 26, 2023

The Z Machine said:
I thought the Patriot system was intended as a missile defense weapon, not anti-air, but looking it up, it obviously can do both. Pretty impressive.

I do wonder about smaller, shorter range anti-air systems with less expensive munitions to combat swarms of drones.

The Patriot system replaced two systems... the Hawk and another one that I can't remember the name of.... or high to medium air defense. It was also given the added responsibility of being a ABM, Anti-Ballistic Missile system and most civilians were introduced to it during Operation Dessert Shield/Storm as it was deployed to knock SCUDs out. It has been upgraded massively since. Damn good system.

The Iron Dome is the most effective missile system for short range rockets and artillery. I am sure it would be effective against drones but the biggest weakness of Iron Dome is it being swarmed. My thinking is that the most effective system will be something more like a land based Phalanx CIWS system. Placing something similar on a tank chassis like a Flakpanzer Gepard (which I believe the Ukrainians have had some of those donated to them). A makeshift way that the Ukrainians have went about to solve this issue has been simply making pick up trucks into Technical's with 50 caliber guns (or other high caliber) mounted on them. I have not seen any feedback on how effective those have been though.

There is no doubt that the US military is watching and learning. There isn't a perfect counter to this right now but I am sure it is a priority. I do remember that we looked into the Iron Dome system but decided against it for some reason.

Don't Toews Me · Dec 26, 2023

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1739762003256938683

The EU is preparing a back-up plan worth up to €20bn for Ukraine, using a debt structure that sidesteps the objections of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán about funding the war-torn country.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1739708989930107210

Today's attack on the Novocherkassk was too significant for Russian state TV to ignore entirely

But if you hadn’t seen the explosion footage on social media, you would probably get the impression from presenter Olga Skabeyeva here that nothing serious had actually happened

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1739721246508548339

Zelensky reports that Russian army struck an evacuation train in Kherson station earlier today. “The emergency services are working at the scene. Number of victims yet to be confirmed.”

https://twitter.com/vorobyov/status/1739667467620753622

Today, Gen Zaluzhny has given a lengthy press briefing. Key 5 points

1/
The character of war in 2024 will differ significantly from that of 2023. "We have identified [key] problems and identified about 90% solutions to those problems", says Gen Zaluzhny.
2/
The military command did not provide the political leadership with specific figures re: the mobilization of new recruits.
The 500K is an estimate of total manpower needs for 2024, which would cover (1) current shortfalls; (2) setup of new units; (3) expected losses in 2024.
3/
Gen Zaluzhny believes that Western partners will sustain their support for Ukraine so that the newly-mobilized servicemen will have sufficient weapons: "I am certain that Western partners will stay by our side".
4/
Zaluzhny supports the proposed legislative change to discharge the defenders who have fought for 3 years only on 2 conditions: (1) sufficient reserves to replace them, and (2) the situation on the battlefield does not flare up.
5/
Gen Zaluzhny compares the already-devastated #Marinka to Bakhmut, and explains the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops to its town limits: "The lives of our servicemen are more important to us".

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1739723900169142706

The first low-resolution @planet satellite images of the Feodosia port, captured on December 26 at 11:25 local time, show that one more vessel (yellow square) is indeed partially sunk following the Ukrainian strike on the 'Novocherkassk' landing ship.

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1739739113690144960

Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG is an outstanding anti-ship weapon when those ships are in port/fully static. Add smaller ports where air defenses are less dense (compared to Sevastopol) and then add a target that is heavily laden with high-explosives — much bigger chance at full write off and secondary damage to infrastructure (which could have a bigger impact that destroying the ship) and other ships — and you have a perfect target.

I would imagine the intel on what was on that ship and the window for attack was the main catalyst for executing it. Yes for taking that explosive materiel off the table but more so because of the massive secondary explosion potential it had.

Choosing targets with massive secondary potential has been a key facet of this war on both sides, but using your precious cruise missiles in this manner makes absolute sense and we will likely be seeing more of it going forward.

https://twitter.com/WarSpotting/status/1739712789986328794

Here's the current status of losses in per our data.

With 73 vehicles lost last week (incl. 15 MBTs, 32 IFVs), is now back to 10+ losses/day territory. That's nearly 2x compared to exact same period last year (41). Consistently going over 2022 figures is now a reality.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1739694512606167379

The thing about these FPV drones; they're cheap EVEN when compared to other man portable anti-tank systems that would have traditionally been used to combat enemy armour.

For the cost of one Javelin anti-tank missile ($78,000), you could buy 222 FPV drones ($350 each).

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1739641175294812582

People keep talking about range limited "export" versions of Storm Shadow; to be clear, all missiles the U.K. gave to Ukraine came from RAF stocks, and the British government believed this didn't violate the (voluntary) guidelines in the Missile Technology Control Regime.

Don't Toews Me · Dec 26, 2023

Ukraine Hits Major Russian Warship, but Loses Ground in the East

A major military success at sea against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was tempered by Ukraine’s acknowledgment that it had all but retreated from the city of Marinka.

www.nytimes.com

The capture of Marinka could allow Russian forces to turn their sights to the nearby towns of Kurakove, Vuhleda and Pokrovsk, bringing them closer to achieving Russia’s goal of capturing the entire Donbas region. General Zaluzhny said Ukrainian troops had “prepared a defensive line outside” Marinka, suggesting that his military would try to thwart Russia’s efforts to advance farther.

The 360-foot-long Novocherkassk was capable of transporting up to 10 tanks and several hundred troops, according to Russian news media, which reported that it had previously been involved in Russian military operations in Syria. In June 2022, Tass said the ship was part of a group of 12 vessels “ready to perform combat tasks in the Black Sea.”
Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday that it suspected that the ship was carrying attack drones for use in the war. Natalia Humeniuk, a spokeswoman for the Ukrainian army , said on national television that “it is clear that such a large detonation was caused not just by fuel or ammunition of the ship itself.”
Andrii Klymenko, the head of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, agreed. “Judging by the video of the explosion, which was very powerful, it was carrying explosives: either shells or missiles, or, as some people say, drones,” he wrote in a text message.
Mr. Klymenko noted that the port of Feodosia was close to Cape Chauda, which he said Russia has long used as a launch site for attack drones.
Data compiled by the institute shows that the Ukrainian military carried out at least 155 attacks on Crimea and the Russian Black Sea Fleet from January to October of this year, averaging one every other day.

This is a tremendous read:

How Ukrainian special forces secured a critical Dnipro River crossing in southern Ukraine

Ukrainian special forces spent six months establishing a bridgehead across the Dnipro River after a blast destroyed the dam upstream.

apnews.com

Their first battle plan was outdated the moment the dam crumbled. So the Ukrainian special forces officers spent six months adapting their fight to secure a crossing to the other side of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine.

But it wasn’t enough just to cross the river. They needed backup to hold it. And for that, they needed proof that it could be done. For one of the officers, nicknamed Skif, that meant a flag — and a photo op.

Skif, Ukrainian shorthand for the nomadic Scythian people who founded an empire on what is now Crimea, moves like the camouflaged amphibian that he is: Calculating, deliberate, until the time to strike.

He is an officer in Center 73, one of Ukraine’s most elite units of special forces — frontline scouts, drone operators, underwater saboteurs. Their strike teams are part of the Special Operations Forces that run the partisans in occupied territories, sneak into Russian barracks to plant bombs and prepare the ground for reclaiming territory seized by Russia.

Their mission on the more dynamic of the two main fronts in the six-month counteroffensive reflects many of the problems of Ukraine’s broader effort. It’s been one of the few counteroffensive successes for the Ukrainian army.

By late May, the Center 73 men were in place along the river’s edge, some of them almost within view of the Kakhovka Dam. They were within range of the Russian forces who had controlled the dam and land across the Dnipro since the first days after the February 2022 full-scale invasion. And both sides knew Ukraine’s looming counteroffensive had its sights on control of the river as the key to reclaim the occupied south.

In the operation’s opening days, on June 6, an explosion destroyed the dam, sending a wall of reservoir water downstream, killing untold numbers of civilians, and washing out the Ukrainian army positions.

“We were ready to cross. And then the dam blew up,” Skif said. The water rose 20 meters (yards), submerging supply lines, the Russian positions and everything else in its path for hundreds of kilometers. The race was on: Whose forces could seize the islands when the waters receded, and with them full control of the Dnipro?

For most Ukrainians who see them on the streets in the nearly deserted frontline villages of the Kherson region, they are the guys in T-shirts and flip-flops — just regular people. The locals who refused to evacuate have all become accustomed to the sounds of war, so even their unnerving calm in the face of air raid alarms, nearby gunfire and artillery doesn’t seem unusual.

AP joined one of the clandestine units several times over six months along the Dnipro. The frogmen are nocturnal. They transform themselves from nondescript civilians into elite fighters, some in wetsuits and some in boats. In the morning, when their operations end, they’re back to anonymity.

They rarely take credit for their work and Ukrainians rarely learn about their operations. But Russian military statements gleefully and erroneously announcing the destruction of Center 73 are an indication of their effectiveness.

Ukraine international aid topped $42 billion in 2023 – DW – 12/27/2023

p.dw.com

Ukraine has received over €38 billion ($42 billion) in international aid throughout the year 2023, its finance minister told Forbes Ukraine on Wednesday.

"It has allowed us to finance all necessary expenditure," Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said.

The majority of the aid poured into Kyiv's defense against the ongoing Kremlin attack. However, some of the money has also been used to fund internal refugees, pensions and state wages.

Marchenko said that 2023 saw more financial stability than 2022, the year in which Russia launched its full-scale invasion. He added that every day of war costs €120 million.

"I am less concerned about 2024 than I am about 2025," he said.

Ukraine is heavily dependent on funds from the US and the EU in its battle against the Russian aggression. But US President Joe Biden has faced challenges in the Republican-dominated Congress at attempts to extend aid to Ukraine. Biden is also up for reelection next year, with many observers concerned about the US possibly changing its stance on Ukraine if the US Democrats lose the White House. The European Union is also set to hold elections for its parliament next year.

Don't Toews Me · Dec 27, 2023

The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine

For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture.

www.politico.com

With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.

The White House and Pentagon publicly insist there is no official change in administration policy — that they still support Ukraine’s aim of forcing Russia’s military completely out of the country. But along with the Ukrainians themselves, U.S. and European officials are now discussing the redeployment of Kyiv’s forces away from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s mostly failed counteroffensive into a stronger defensive position against Russian forces in the east, according to the administration official and the European diplomat, and confirmed by a senior administration official. This effort has also involved bolstering air defense systems and building fortifications, razor wire obstructions and anti-tank obstacles and ditches along Ukraine’s northern border with Belarus, these officials say. In addition, the Biden administration is focused on rapidly resurrecting Ukraine’s own defense industry to supply the desperately needed weaponry the U.S. Congress is balking at replacing.
The administration official told POLITICO Magazine this week that much of this strategic shift to defense is aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation. “That’s been our theory of the case throughout — the only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation,” said the official, a White House spokesperson who was given anonymity because they are not authorized to speak on the record. “We want Ukraine to have the strongest hand possible when that comes.” The spokesperson emphasized, however, that no talks are planned yet, and that Ukrainian forces are still on the offensive in places and continue to kill and wound thousands of Russian troops. “We want them to be in a stronger position to hold their territory. It’s not that we’re discouraging them from launching any new offensive,” the spokesperson added.

‘Raging’ Putin sends top brass to front after warship humiliation

Revenge raids ordered across Crimea over missile destruction of Novocherkassk that may have killed 100

www.thetimes.co.uk

President Putin is “completely furious” at the sinking of the Novocherkassk warship and has ordered raids across occupied Crimea in an attempt to hunt down the resistance fighters that provided intelligence on its location, according to a Ukrainian partisan group.
“The flywheel of repression is spinning,” the Atesh group wrote on Telegram. “Local residents have been raided throughout the city, their smartphones are being taken away and their houses are being searched.”
The group added: “It is reported that Putin is completely furious over the destruction of the Novocherkassk large landing ship. An order was issued to punish the Crimean air defence forces. It is expected that many commanders will be removed and sent to the front to participate in assault groups.”

Russia Has Enough Budget Funds to Pay for Its War, Finance Minister Siluanov Says

Russia has sufficient budget funds to pay for its war in Ukraine, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

www.bloomberg.com

Russia has sufficient budget funds to pay for its war in Ukraine, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
“The Finance Ministry provided all the funds required for the main tasks” of the military, Siluanov told reporters in a briefing Wednesday. “All the needs of our armed forces for their tasks in the special military operation are provided with money.”
Russia plans a massive increase in defense spending in 2024, to 10.8 trillion rubles ($112 billion) from 6.4 trillion rubles this year, overtaking outlays on social support even as President Vladimir Putin prepares to run for a fifth term in elections in March.
Higher than expected proceeds to Russia’s budget from non oil and gas sectors in 2023 allowed the government to spend more than was planned, according to Siluanov. That’s even as international sanctions including a price cap on oil sales were meant to drain the state’s coffers and increase pressure on the economy.
Russia’s overall budget spending exceeded the target by more than 3 trillion rubles at 32.2 trillion rubles, Siluanov said. While meeting the army’s needs in the war, the government didn’t cut spending on infrastructure, investment, and social services, he said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-close-being-able-end-ukraine-border-blockade-says-pm-2023-12-27/

Poland's government is getting close to ending a blockade by truckers of several border crossings with Ukraine, the prime minister said on Wednesday.
Polish drivers have been blocking several crossings with Ukraine since Nov. 6, demanding the European Union reinstate a system whereby Ukrainian companies need permits to operate in the bloc and the same for European truckers to enter Ukraine.
Farmers suspended a protest at one border crossing on Sunday, but truckers have continued to block three others.

Don't Toews Me · Dec 28, 2023

Analysis: Putin promises Xi to 'fight for five years' in Ukraine

Meant to keep China on Russia's side, the words in March prompted Beijing to hedge its bets

asia.nikkei.com

During a meeting in Moscow back in March, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that Russia "will fight for [at least] five years" in Ukraine, sources have revealed.
This was apparently Putin's way of summarizing a situation that at the time was not favorable to Russia and assuring Xi that Russia would emerge victorious in the end.
The likely implication was that a protracted war would favor China's well-armed partner.
Taken another way, the remark was also a warning to Xi not to change his pro-Russia stance.

Expert: Ukraine successes against Black Sea Fleet curtailed Russia missile strikes

Ukraine's recent successful strikes on Russia's Black Sea fleet may be one of the primary reasons why Russian forces have not conducted as many missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure so far this winter, as had previously been the case, security analyst Rainer Saks says.

news.err.ee

Ukraine's recent successful strikes on Russia's Black Sea fleet may be one of the primary reasons why Russian forces have not conducted as many missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure so far this winter, as had previously been the case, security analyst Rainer Saks says.

Appearing on radio show "Vikerhommik" Wednesday, Saks called it "notable that Russia has not conducted out missile attacks on the scale as it had last year, but has been making strikes on Ukraine primarily with Iranian-made drones.

"However, they have not been able to cause significant damage to the Ukraine's infrastructure in the cold period now underway" Saks went on, referring to the winter.

In response to a question about what was behind this reduction in frequency of Russian missile attacks, Saks first off pointed to the problem with stockpiles.

"Russia cannot use up all its reserves of tactical missiles in order to attack Ukraine," he said.

The expert noted that it is also not known what Russia's capacity to produce more missiles might be. "Some claim that it produces a sufficient quantity, but then again some commentators have probably also fallen for Russian propaganda on this. If Russia claims it is using three shifts in production, the question then arises why these [missiles] are not being used en masse," contrasting this winter so far with 12 months ago, when Russia had been able to inflict damage on 40 percent of Ukraine's electricity infrastructure.

Saks further pointed out that Ukraine has been able to boost its air defense during 2023, thanks to additional funds received from many Western nations. Concurrently, Ukraine has also been able to hit Russian missile production plants with its drones and, it is thought, via the use of special forces personnel.
"However, the most important aspect may be that Russia has made use of a substantial proportion of its Black Sea fleet in the past, in order to plan and organize missile attacks. However, Ukraine's strikes on that Black Sea fleet have been highly effective, and what is particularly important is that the fleet's headquarters and also its reserve headquarters have been knocked out, through the course of autumn. Perhaps this is the most serious factor behind Russia's inability to plan these attacks effectively," argued Saks.

"But winter is not over yet so maybe they will conduct new strikes. Given the strategic picture has become more unfavorable for Russia, they should from their perspective in fact try to carry out missile attacks once again," he added.

Washington puts forward G7 plan to confiscate $300bn in Russian assets

Proposal would accelerate preparations in time for a February summit to show solidarity with Ukraine

www.ft.com

The US has proposed that working groups from the G7 explore ways to seize $300bn in frozen Russian assets, as the allies rush to agree a plan in time for the second anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1740303284039021040

(1/5) On 25 December 2023, the Russian Navy’s Ropucha class Landing Ship Tank (LST) Novocherkassk was completely destroyed following a Ukrainian strike while alongside at the port of Feodosia, on the south coast of Russian-occupied Crimea.
(2/5) Open source evidence suggests it is highly likely the vessel was carrying explosive cargo when it was hit, causing a large secondary explosion.
(3/5) The incident takes the number of LSTs Russia has lost since the invasion to three: the Saratov sank on 24 March 2022, while the Minsk was functionally destroyed in dry dock on 13 September 2023. Two additional LSTs have likely been damaged.
(4/5) Russia likely planned to use its LST force to launch significant amphibious assaults during the invasion and it doubled the number of these vessels in the Black Sea during the build-up to the war.
(5/5) As the war has dragged on, the ships have been more commonly employed in providing logistical support. This is a significant role because it augments the vital and relatively fragile road and rail connection of the Crimea Bridge, which links Crimea to Russia.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1740374961360159040

For the first time since the start of the invasion, Russia's military releases the number of contract soldiers now in service: more than 640k. Seems timed to assure public that 2nd mobilization wave isn't coming.

On Medvedev's post: https://twitter.com/bdtaylor_SU/status/1740360086420349316

Deputy Chair of the Russian Security Council states clearly that the only talks Russia is interested in are those that lead to Ukraine's complete surrender and dismemberment.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1740341292700467424

Unnamed Russian officials to NYT: Putin is ready to settle the war in Ukraine, please pressure Zelensky to have peace talks.
Medvedev: Kyiv is a temporarily occupied Russian city that will be liberated.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1740313867413274642

Video of an FPV strike by Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade on a Russian BTR-82 next to a damaged T-80BVM tank, causing a catastrophic loss.

Don't Toews Me · Dec 28, 2023

EDF intelligence chief: Confining Russia Black Sea fleet a major achievement for Ukraine

One of Ukrainian forces' most significant achievements of 2023 has been to shepherd successfully Russia's Black Sea fleet into the Eastern portion of that sea, and in the adjacent Sea of Azov, according to Colonel Ants Kiviselg, who commands the Estonian Defense Forces' (EDF) intelligence center.

news.err.ee

One of Ukrainian forces' most significant achievements of 2023 has been to shepherd successfully Russia's Black Sea fleet into the Eastern portion of that sea, and in the adjacent Sea of Azov, according to Colonel Ants Kiviselg, who commands the Estonian Defense Forces' (EDF) intelligence center.

This culminated in the recent missile strike on the large Russian landing craft, the Novocherkassk.

Appearing on ETV show "Ukraina stuudio" Wednesday, Col. Kiviselg said that "Without a doubt this attack will once again increase the pressure on the Russian Federation to move its units as far away from the Crimean peninsula as possible."

"It is clear that such an attack requires very good planning, an understanding of where the Russian Federation's air defenses are," he added. "It requires good preliminary work and the coincidence of several situations."

"Furthermore they cannot make use of their ports in Crimea, which are suitable and efficient harbors in terms of their reception capacity, and they work quickly. But now the units need to be moved further, for example to the port of Novorossiya, within the Russian Federation itself, rather than the occupied territories," Kiviselg went on.

Other than that, there have been no significant changes one the front during the past week-and-a-half, he added.

"Russia has continued to try to pressure the Ukrainian side, and perhaps the most visible event on land has been the capture of the city of Mar'inka, Donetsk oblast, late last week, where the Ukrainians have withdrawn their units from. In other respects, there have been no major changes to the frontline."

Around Avdiivka, Ukrainian troops are holding out in their established defensive positions, while Russian forces have not yet been able to cut off this redoubt despite its practically having been razed to the ground.

"Currently, six kilometers of the northwestern corner are open, and the Ukrainians can replenish units that way," Kiviselg said.

However, if maintaining that position proves unreasonable, the order to withdraw is likely to be given, he said.

"So far, they have performed this task well, having exhausted the Russian units and expended a lot of [Russian] manpower."

Further Ukrainian mobilization – the minimum age at which men are liable for call-up was recently lowered from 27 to 25 – will hinge, in terms of its size, on the goals intended with that mobilization.

Mobilization could, for instance, relieve those who have been at the front up to now, or could form a part of preparations for an offensive operation, Kiviselg said.

Security expert Rainer Saks recently noted a change in Russia's own estimation of its achievements on the battlefield, from an offensive nature, to a more defensive approach.

Defeat, counteroffensive, negotiations? Ukraine war in 2024

With Ukraine’s counteroffensive stalling and Western support showing signs of exhaustion, will the war take a tragic tur...

www.lrt.lt

“Events of the last months are in Russia’s favour, and Moscow is simply gloating, with a great deal of confidence that it will be able to achieve its war aims,” said Rostoks of the Latvian National Defence Academy. “I don’t think there is any basis for that confidence, but although the Russian offensive has been stalling for a year and a half, they now believe they are on solid military footing, they have enough personnel, ammunition, and their war industry is working well. Therefore, they are quite confident about the year ahead.”

US unveils final aid package of year to Ukraine

The package comes as lawmakers continue to negotiate a deal that would allow for continued aid to Ukraine in the new year.

www.politico.com

In a statement, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. will provide Ukraine with “up to $250 million of arms and equipment under previously directed drawdowns.” The package includes air defense munitions, air defense system components, ammunition for high mobility artillery rocket systems, 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, anti-armor munitions and over 15 million rounds of ammunition.

Orange&Blue · Dec 28, 2023

can we ban tanner so this thread doesn't get deleted?

Don't Toews Me · Dec 29, 2023

Good piece by RUSI's Jack Watling:

Yes, Ukraine can still defeat Russia – but it will require far more support from Europe | Jack Watling

By finally delivering on their promises, Kyiv’s European allies will find the benefits extend to them, too, says Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute

www.theguardian.com

Russia is likely to be able to fire about 5m rounds at Ukraine in 2024, based on its mobilised defence production, supply from Iran and North Korea, and remaining stocks. Despite the flippant observation – often made by European officials – that Russia’s economy is the same size as that of Italy, the Kremlin is producing more shells than all of Nato. Meanwhile, Ukraine is unlikely to see any significant increase in supply for some months. This will cede the initiative to the Russians. The Kremlin believes it can win by 2026, and so Putin is in no mood to negotiate or back down.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unidentified-object-entered-poland-direction-ukraine-says-polish-army-2023-12-29/

An unidentified aerial object entered the airspace of NATO-member Poland from the direction of the border with Ukraine on Friday morning, the Polish army's Operational Command said.
"In the morning, an unidentified aerial object entered the airspace ... and from the moment it crossed the border until the signal disappeared, it was observed by the radars of the country's air defence system," it said on social media platform X.
"In accordance with applicable procedures, the operational commander of the armed forces mobilized the available forces and resources at his disposal."
Private broadcaster TV Republika had reported that a search for the object was happening near the town of Hrubieszow in southern Poland. Reuters was unable to immediately confirm this information.
"We received information that an object appeared on the radar near Hrubieszow," Krzysztof Komorski, governor of the Lublin region said on X. "We have no confirmation that it fell within our region."

Russia launches massive air attack on Ukraine, at least 10 dead - Kyiv

Russia unleashed its largest drone and missile attack on Ukraine in months on Friday, killing 10 people and wounding at least 60 others in Kyiv, the south, west and east of the country, officials said.
Dozens of people were wounded with damage reported at a maternity hospital in the central city of Dnipro and buildings in the western city of Lviv, the southeastern port of Odesa and the eastern city of Kharkiv.
Two people were confirmed dead in the capital Kyiv, with more people thought to be trapped under rubble at a warehouse damaged by falling debris, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram messenger.
Two people were killed in the Black Sea port city of Odesa and at least 15 were injured, including two children, as missiles hit residential buildings, the regional governor said.
"We can say that this was a massive attack," Yuriy Ihnat, the air force spokesman said on television.
Ukraine has been warning for weeks that Russia could be stockpiling missiles to launch a major air campaign targeting the energy system. Last year millions of people were plunged into darkness when Russian strikes pounded the power grid.
The energy ministry reported power outages in four regions after the air attack.
In Lviv region, which borders Poland, impacts were confirmed at a critical infrastructure facility, the president's office said, declining to say which one.
"The enemy targeted social and critical infrastructure," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
The air force said Russia used hypersonic, cruise and ballistic missiles, including ones which are extremely hard to intercept.

https://twitter.com/JaneLytv/status/1740700177089056950

Spokesperson for Air Defence said Ukraine has not been able to intercept a single X-22 cruise missile during the war. Of the 110 missiles and drones Russia fired at Ukraine overnight, eight were X-22 or X-32. https://ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3806329-ignat-z-pocatku-povnomasstabnogo-vtorgnenna-rosia-vipustila-ponad-300-raket-h22-zodnu-ne-zbili.html

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1740695583889735857

Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said that Russian troops used various types of missiles in the strike, including Kinzhal missiles, ballistic, anti-aircraft, and cruise missiles, as well as drones. “We have never seen so many targets simultaneously on our monitor,” Ihnat said. According to him, Russia used 18 strategic bombers in the attack.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1740666430553727331

36 Shahed drones, at least 90 Kh-101 / Kh-555/ Kh-55 missiles from 18 Tu-95MS bombers, 8 Kh-22 / Kh-32 missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers, at least 14 S-300 / S-400 / Iskander-M missiles, 5 Kinzhal missiles from 5 MiG-31K, and 4 Kh-31P and 1 Kh-59 missiles launched from Su-35S. 2/

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1740677628057862293

Russian state TV is excitedly cheering on this morning's massive missile attack on Ukraine

Despite extensive evidence to the contrary, viewers are of course being told that only military locations were targeted

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1740627026468601991

As more ambulances rush past my Kyiv apartment, first deaths reported by authorities in Dnipro. There are likely to be many more today, unfortunately.

Putin sending many signals to the West this morning. The clearest is that Ukraine needs more air defence systems and missiles.

Putin Forced to Relocate Ships in Crimea After Ukraine Strikes

Drone and missile attacks are enabling Ukraine to overcome Russian naval dominance in the Black Sea.

www.bloomberg.com

“No Crimean port is safe any more for Russian warships,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow. Ukraine has “basically ejected the fleet from Crimea.”

FBG Moderator · Dec 29, 2023

This thread is close to getting closed. Drop the want to punch in the face stuff for people who disagree with you or the "morons" or Biden or war hawks stuff if this is going remain open.

BassNBrew · Dec 29, 2023

FBG Moderator said:
This thread is close to getting closed. Drop the want to punch in the face stuff for people who disagree with you or the "morons" or Biden or war hawks stuff if this is going remain open.

It’s been fine for two years. Just wield the permanent ban axe on the offenders and it won’t be an issue. This thread is a great source for news on this war.

Chadstroma · Dec 29, 2023

FBG Moderator said:
This thread is close to getting closed. Drop the want to punch in the face stuff for people who disagree with you or the "morons" or Biden or war hawks stuff if this is going remain open.

This is obviously directed at me with the punch in the face thing which I will say is sad and getting Facebook silly as it was obviously hyperbole.

But I want to ask a question... is literally bringing up the Biden Administration going to get this thread closed? Or is it that you or whatever faceless moderator deems something as being negative? I ask, because this war is extremely tied into what other nations, including the US, do or do not do in terms of material support for the Ukrainians. I can not recall stating anything negative about the Biden administration in regards to Ukraine. Maybe I did but for the most part I am supportive of their efforts to support the Ukrainians. I just want to know... do I have to avoid mentioning "the administration that shall not be named" or what exactly is "stuff".

I am not looking to be a jerk here. I just want to know because "stuff" isn't very descriptive and I would think it was painfully obvious "want to punch in the face" was clearly hyperbole. If hyperbole will get this shut down then is mentioning "he who shall not be named" going to get it shut down as well? Essentially "stuff" doesn't really help guide us.

Dezbelief · Dec 29, 2023

Chadstroma said:
FBG Moderator said:

This thread is close to getting closed. Drop the want to punch in the face stuff for people who disagree with you or the "morons" or Biden or war hawks stuff if this is going remain open.

Click to expand...

This is obviously directed at me with the punch in the face thing which I will say is sad and getting Facebook silly as it was obviously hyperbole.

But I want to ask a question... is literally bringing up the Biden Administration going to get this thread closed? Or is it that you or whatever faceless moderator deems something as being negative? I ask, because this war is extremely tied into what other nations, including the US, do or do not do in terms of material support for the Ukrainians. I can not recall stating anything negative about the Biden administration in regards to Ukraine. Maybe I did but for the most part I am supportive of their efforts to support the Ukrainians. I just want to know... do I have to avoid mentioning "the administration that shall not be named" or what exactly is "stuff".

I am not looking to be a jerk here. I just want to know because "stuff" isn't very descriptive and I would think it was painfully obvious "want to punch in the face" was clearly hyperbole. If hyperbole will get this shut down then is mentioning "he who shall not be named" going to get it shut down as well? Essentially "stuff" doesn't really help guide us.

The other post they deleted mentioned the administration in a political manner. So I guess the FBGmod message was half meant for you, half meant for the other guy and 100% meant for the rest of us.

themeistersinger · Dec 29, 2023

Dezbelief said:
Chadstroma said:

FBG Moderator said:

This thread is close to getting closed. Drop the want to punch in the face stuff for people who disagree with you or the "morons" or Biden or war hawks stuff if this is going remain open.

Click to expand...

This is obviously directed at me with the punch in the face thing which I will say is sad and getting Facebook silly as it was obviously hyperbole.

But I want to ask a question... is literally bringing up the Biden Administration going to get this thread closed? Or is it that you or whatever faceless moderator deems something as being negative? I ask, because this war is extremely tied into what other nations, including the US, do or do not do in terms of material support for the Ukrainians. I can not recall stating anything negative about the Biden administration in regards to Ukraine. Maybe I did but for the most part I am supportive of their efforts to support the Ukrainians. I just want to know... do I have to avoid mentioning "the administration that shall not be named" or what exactly is "stuff".

I am not looking to be a jerk here. I just want to know because "stuff" isn't very descriptive and I would think it was painfully obvious "want to punch in the face" was clearly hyperbole. If hyperbole will get this shut down then is mentioning "he who shall not be named" going to get it shut down as well? Essentially "stuff" doesn't really help guide us.

Click to expand...

The other post they deleted mentioned the administration in a political manner. So I guess the FBGmod message was half meant for you, half meant for the other guy and 100% meant for the rest of us.

Yeah, there was a really bad post that has been deleted. It was not from you chadstroma (unless there was another one that I missed).

I assume just saying the Biden administration did this policy or did not do this policy is fair game, assuming it is correct. Like we did send F-16s or did not send F-16s. Just avoid saying "and because Biden did this then ...."

Don't Toews Me · Dec 29, 2023

Poland says Russian missile entered airspace then went into Ukraine

Poland's air defence system initially detected the object but subsequently lost track of it.

www.bbc.com

Poland's armed forces chief believes a Russian missile entered Poland for almost three minutes and then turned back into Ukrainian airspace.

Gen Wieslaw Kukula said the missile travelled about 40km (25 miles) into Polish airspace early on Friday.

The alert coincided with what Ukraine has called Russia's biggest day of air strikes since its war began.

President Andrzej Duda convened an emergency security meeting after the object was picked up on radar.

About 200 police officers have been conducting a search of the area where the object was detected in case the missile landed on Polish territory.

https://twitter.com/NilsenThomas/status/1740734384557191573

Nine Tu-95 bombers from Olenya airbase south of Murmansk played core role in tonight’s terror-bombing of civilian targets in Ukraine.

Chart: https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1740724218659287106

Here is how today's attack compares to previous strikes. The big question is, of course, whether this is the start of a larger campaign or a one-off event. I am presently more inclined to go with the latter.

Video: https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1740819916582969772

First video I've seen of a Russian Kh-101 ALCM dispensing countermeasures.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1740806823794430149

Britain is sending around 200 air-defense missiles to Ukraine to help protect civilians and infrastructure from Russian drones and bombing, the British Defense Ministry said on Friday.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1740775856740663305

Most Russian missile arsenals are larger now than they had been before the war. Production has been ramped up significantly

I should add that this is not true for every type of missile. Inventories for some, such as short-range ballistic 9K720 Iskander and Kalibr cruise missiles are much smaller than they were on Feb 22

https://twitter.com/bdtaylor_SU/status/1740801278211764650

Late to this, but interesting look at polls by @v_milov. "There’s growing fatigue and fading enthusiasm about the war, with these trends clearly progressing over time... A deteriorating economic situation is also adding up to popular negativity."

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1740785319287656687

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that Russia’s overnight air attack on Ukraine was the largest since the start of the full-scale invasion.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1740762877689205071

Russia’s military says it's completed its fall conscription, calling up 130k. They ostensibly won't be used in combat, per Kremlin policy (though there's no law against it, I think). But many of these men will be persuaded/coerced into contract service.

https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/1740757884236095522

A record-setting 5,593 Russian soldiers faced trials in 2023 for desertions and other offenses related to refusal to serve, the independent news website Mediazona reported Friday.

Russia tries to overwhelm Ukraine with missiles

As the land war grinds on, the aerial one is heating up

www.economist.com

It was a phone call from his wife that warned Serhiy that missiles might be headed his way. The security guard had been up since the early morning, woken by the first wave of Russian drones fired towards Kyiv. He had even had time for his first cup of coffee. But nothing prepared him for the three blasts just before eight, the final one the loudest. “We were standing, chatting, all calm,” he recalls, “and then—boom—thrown in the air with everything shaking.”
Several hours after impact, the scene outside his hut remained apocalyptic. Chunks of rocket metal lay twisted on the ground. Bare window panes swung from their frames. A few doors down, smoke bellowed from a red-brick factory, the apparent target of the attack.

But a source in Ukraine’s defence industry suggests Russia had predominantly targeted defence facilities. Some were connected to missile and drone production. “The attacks had strategic meaning for the enemy, with the aim of reducing our capacity to strike,” the source says. Both sides are locked in a competition to degrade the enemy. “It’s a battle to see who can destroy more of the enemy’s long-range weapons.”

A source in Ukraine’s general staff says attacks on Crimea, a key Russian military hub, will increase over the winter. Russia, for its part, is likely to continue targeting facilities like the red-brick factory. Serhiy, who started work there only a month ago, insists he has no plans to change his place of employment. “Here or there, it makes no difference,” he says. “In Ukraine, we understand no one is protected. We live each day as it comes.”

Don't Toews Me · Dec 29, 2023

FBG Moderator said:
This thread is close to getting closed. Drop the want to punch in the face stuff for people who disagree with you or the "morons" or Biden or war hawks stuff if this is going remain open.

Can I PM you with a private question?

Chadstroma · Dec 29, 2023

Dezbelief said:
Chadstroma said:

FBG Moderator said:

This thread is close to getting closed. Drop the want to punch in the face stuff for people who disagree with you or the "morons" or Biden or war hawks stuff if this is going remain open.

Click to expand...

This is obviously directed at me with the punch in the face thing which I will say is sad and getting Facebook silly as it was obviously hyperbole.

But I want to ask a question... is literally bringing up the Biden Administration going to get this thread closed? Or is it that you or whatever faceless moderator deems something as being negative? I ask, because this war is extremely tied into what other nations, including the US, do or do not do in terms of material support for the Ukrainians. I can not recall stating anything negative about the Biden administration in regards to Ukraine. Maybe I did but for the most part I am supportive of their efforts to support the Ukrainians. I just want to know... do I have to avoid mentioning "the administration that shall not be named" or what exactly is "stuff".

I am not looking to be a jerk here. I just want to know because "stuff" isn't very descriptive and I would think it was painfully obvious "want to punch in the face" was clearly hyperbole. If hyperbole will get this shut down then is mentioning "he who shall not be named" going to get it shut down as well? Essentially "stuff" doesn't really help guide us.

Click to expand...

The other post they deleted mentioned the administration in a political manner. So I guess the FBGmod message was half meant for you, half meant for the other guy and 100% meant for the rest of us.

The punch in the face was certainly me... I assumed the rest was as well but I have been careful with touching on anything political (though most criticism is from 'my side') but since the hyperbole got tagged, I figured I mentioned Biden as well and that was part of it.

themeistersinger · Dec 29, 2023

'Massive' Russian Strikes Kill at Least 30 Across Ukraine - The Moscow Times

Russia launched a massive air attack over Ukraine on Friday, killing at least 30 people and wounding over a hundred across the country in the fiercest assault since the first days of the war nearly two years ago.

www.themoscowtimes.com

themeistersinger · Dec 29, 2023

In Photos: The Aftermath of Russia's Massive Drone and Missile Attack on Ukraine - The Moscow Times

Gallery |

www.themoscowtimes.com

themeistersinger · Dec 29, 2023

'Our Men Are Dying for Nothing': Russian Soldier’s Widow Makes Anti-War Plea - The Moscow Times

Put’ Dumoi (Way Home), a Russian movement of mostly wives and mothers of mobilized soldiers calling for the return of their loved ones from the frontlines and an end to mobilization, has released a video plea of a soldier’s widow decrying the invasion of Ukraine. The nine-minute-long video...

www.themoscowtimes.com

Don't Toews Me · Dec 30, 2023

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1740911874902831514

I think people are exaggerating the role of short-term considerations (e.g. Novocherkassk) to explain this strike. Russia has been building up its missile stocks all summer, and it was widely expected they would target Ukraine's infrastructure this winter as they did last winter.

10 killed in Ukrainian strikes on border regions, Russian officials say

Latest attacks follow Friday’s strikes by Moscow on Ukraine, which killed nearly 40 people.

www.politico.eu

Ukraine launched a series of drone and missile attacks on Russia over the past 24 hours, killing at least 10 people, Russian officials said on Saturday.

The Russian emergency ministry said one child was among those killed in Belgorod, a city less than 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Another 45 people, including four children, were injured, according to the ministry.

On Saturday morning, the Russian defense ministry said that it had shot down 32 Ukrainian drones over border areas as well as the regions of Oryol and Moscow further north.

The Ukrainian strikes come after large-scale Russian air attacks on Friday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday that the death toll from Friday’s airstrikes had risen to 39.

Russian local officials had said earlier on Saturday that Ukrainian strikes on border regions had killed one man and two children in Belgorod and another child in the Bryansk region. “The Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled the center of Belgorod. According to preliminary information, there are two dead children,” Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on Telegram.

https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/1741118000843944389

UPD: Russia's Defense Ministry said the Ukrainian strike on the city of Belgorod that has killed at least 14 people "would not go unpunished."

Some video: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1741079956317212979

A day after Russian missile strikes on Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro etc killed at least 39 Ukrainian civilians and injured at least 159, Ukraine hits the Russian city of Belgorod with a rocket barrage. Footage from Russian Telegram channels.

Yes it is likely that some/most of the damage and casualties was caused by Russian air defenses and debris falling on civilian areas. This is a feature of this war.

Thread: https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1740977492499014087

Does Putin require the war in Ukraine to stay in power? I'll take an exception to this popular point of view and argue that this is actually not the case. A slightly academic thread.
The argument reminds me of that famous Soviet proposition that capitalism, in search for profits, would always start wars.
Orwell famously depicted a society where a dictatorial regime holds on to power in part by waging a low-intensity permanent war against adversaries. Many will find the idea of such wars of distraction / mobilization appealing but 1984 is a (great) work of fiction.
Chen Jian describes in his famous book how Mao Zedong, pursuing his continuous revolution, sought external tension in order to promote domestic mobilization: https://amazon.co.uk/Maos-China-Cold-War-History/dp/0807849324. Yet even Mao could and did de-escalate. He wanted a permanent revolution, not a permanent war.
North Korea is another such regime, of which you might say: external conflict->domestic support=war. But a) the one war the regime launched (1953) had nothing to do with calculations about domestic support; b) since then, Pyongyang has vastly preferred loud militancy to war.
We can continue shopping for examples, but the basic point is clear: there is nothing about Putin's regime that absolutely requires war to survive.
It's true that wars have helped improve Putin's approval ratings (the graph is from Levada: https://levada.ru/indikatory/odobrenie-organov-vlasti/) but it's not the same as to argume that a permanent war will have the same beneficial effects. Economic difficulties and fatigue will erode the patriotic bonus.
One might argue that this war is different in that it led to a complete reordering of social and economic relations, an order which will unravel if the war stops. And that will threaten Putin. I agree but with one reservation: this will only happen if Putin *loses* the war.
He can conceivably win the war, and still maintain a high level of militarization and external tensions (the North Korean model). That's actually a highly plausible scenario.
Meanwhile, waging a permanent war has lots of downsides. First, it creates economic uncertainty. Putin brags about Russia's economic performance but it's clear that the current bounce is a temporary phenomenon. Russia faces serious problems long-term if the war continues.
Second, Russia faces political uncertainties. Remember that just a few months ago, Putin had to deal with an unprecedented mutiny that was happily resolved but such an outcome was not preordained. This was much more dangerous than anything Putin faced in his long years in power.
Remember, too, that nothing at all threatened Putin before he began his war in Ukraine. By 2022 the Russian opposition was crushed and demoralized. The idea that he started this war to prolong his hold on power doesn't make any sense imho.
This whole long thread/rant is meant to serve as an argument against adopting monocausal views on Russia's behavior. Does Putin equal war? The answer is: sometimes. Let's look closely and not jump to conclusions.
What Putin wants in Ukraine is not permanent war. What he wants is victory.
A victory that would
a) Support Putin's historical/imperialistic fantasies;
b) Vindicate the expense of blood and treasure;
c) Create a basis for reordering Russia's relations with the West on his terms.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1741026561258573901

During the course of 2023, the average daily number of Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine has risen by almost 300 per day compared to 2022. (1/4)
The increase in daily averages, as reported by the Ukrainian authorities, almost certainly reflects the degradation of Russia’s forces and its transition to a lower quality, high quantity mass army since the ‘partial mobilisation’ of reservists in September 2022. (2/4)
It will likely take Russia five to ten years to rebuild a cohort of highly trained and experienced military units. (3/4)
If casualties continue at the current rate through the next year, by 2025 Russia will have sustained over half a million personnel killed and wounded over three years of war. This is compared to the Soviet Union’s 70,000 casualties in the nine-year Soviet-Afghan War. (4/4)

themeistersinger · Dec 31, 2023

Putin's War, Week 96. Blowback From a Sunk Ship as Russia Launches Largest Missile Attack of the War

https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/12/30/putins-war-week-96-n2168001

culdeus · Dec 31, 2023

So Russia is putting Ukraine pow in as solders. How does that work on any level?

Orange&Blue · Dec 31, 2023

Chadstroma said:
Dezbelief said:

Chadstroma said:

FBG Moderator said:

This thread is close to getting closed. Drop the want to punch in the face stuff for people who disagree with you or the "morons" or Biden or war hawks stuff if this is going remain open.

Click to expand...

This is obviously directed at me with the punch in the face thing which I will say is sad and getting Facebook silly as it was obviously hyperbole.

But I want to ask a question... is literally bringing up the Biden Administration going to get this thread closed? Or is it that you or whatever faceless moderator deems something as being negative? I ask, because this war is extremely tied into what other nations, including the US, do or do not do in terms of material support for the Ukrainians. I can not recall stating anything negative about the Biden administration in regards to Ukraine. Maybe I did but for the most part I am supportive of their efforts to support the Ukrainians. I just want to know... do I have to avoid mentioning "the administration that shall not be named" or what exactly is "stuff".

I am not looking to be a jerk here. I just want to know because "stuff" isn't very descriptive and I would think it was painfully obvious "want to punch in the face" was clearly hyperbole. If hyperbole will get this shut down then is mentioning "he who shall not be named" going to get it shut down as well? Essentially "stuff" doesn't really help guide us.

Click to expand...

The other post they deleted mentioned the administration in a political manner. So I guess the FBGmod message was half meant for you, half meant for the other guy and 100% meant for the rest of us.

Click to expand...

The punch in the face was certainly me... I assumed the rest was as well but I have been careful with touching on anything political (though most criticism is from 'my side') but since the hyperbole got tagged, I figured I mentioned Biden as well and that was part of it.

there was a post from tanner which was 100% political bs and was several paragraphs long. unless that is you, relax.

BassNBrew · Dec 31, 2023

Chadstroma said:
FBG Moderator said:

This thread is close to getting closed. Drop the want to punch in the face stuff for people who disagree with you or the "morons" or Biden or war hawks stuff if this is going remain open.

Click to expand...

This is obviously directed at me with the punch in the face thing which I will say is sad and getting Facebook silly as it was obviously hyperbole.

But I want to ask a question... is literally bringing up the Biden Administration going to get this thread closed? Or is it that you or whatever faceless moderator deems something as being negative? I ask, because this war is extremely tied into what other nations, including the US, do or do not do in terms of material support for the Ukrainians. I can not recall stating anything negative about the Biden administration in regards to Ukraine. Maybe I did but for the most part I am supportive of their efforts to support the Ukrainians. I just want to know... do I have to avoid mentioning "the administration that shall not be named" or what exactly is "stuff".

I am not looking to be a jerk here. I just want to know because "stuff" isn't very descriptive and I would think it was painfully obvious "want to punch in the face" was clearly hyperbole. If hyperbole will get this shut down then is mentioning "he who shall not be named" going to get it shut down as well? Essentially "stuff" doesn't really help guide us.

Just don't mention Biden. J has previously said please report anything remotely political, it won't be tolerated. Just say the US is sending X, Y, and Z. Just pretend the B guy and the T guy don't exist in the FFA. This thread will be plenty informational if we stick to Ukraine/Russia news. Yeah, we may be missing important pieces of the story, but getting 80% of it here in one places due to the work of some exceptional posters combing through numerous sources is a huge value. We already saw what happened to the Hamas/Israel thread when people can't follow the rules. If an occasional loose cannon shows up in here just report it and let the mods handle it. When people respond to those posts entire threads get nuked.

Don't Toews Me · Dec 31, 2023

Russia intensifies Ukraine attacks on New Year’s Eve

Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledges retaliation for deadly air strikes

www.ft.com

Ukraine on Sunday issued nationwide air raid alerts after several people were killed and dozens injured by Russian attacks in the eastern region of Kharkiv, two days after Moscow’s deadliest strikes on Ukrainian cities in nearly two years of war.
The mounting attacks and casualties on New Year’s Eve come as both sides settle in for a protracted war after Russia’s full-scale invasion launched in February 2022 failed to achieve its aims but claimed hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides.
Ukraine’s air force said on Sunday that “the whole of Ukraine is on missile strike alert” after Russian MiG-31 jets had taken off, with “significant activity” recorded in the east and south of the country.
“The threat of aviation being used for destruction remains! Don’t ignore the air alert!” the air force urged Ukrainians as they were preparing for New Year’s celebrations. Ukrainian media and regional officials reported explosions on Sunday in the central regions of Kryviy Rih and Kirovohrad.
In Kharkiv region, police said Russian artillery strikes had killed a woman and two men in the village of Borova.
The region’s governor Oleg Synegubov said at least six missiles had hit Kharkiv city on Saturday night, with 28 civilians injured in strikes that also hit healthcare buildings and the prominent Kharkiv Palace hotel which is frequented by media.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1741454636282745112

The Russian missile barrage on Kyiv three days ago caused the biggest single loss of life in the Ukrainian capital since the invasion began. On New Year’s Eve, rescue workers are still looking for survivors in the rubble.

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1741358253705978189

Update: According to the latest report from Kharkiv’s regional prosecutor’s office, 26 people were injured in the attack.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1741455169177452653

Two German journalists were among those injured in yesterday’s Russian strike on Kharkiv Palace hotel.

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1741427227042967782

Officials in several Russian cities have canceled New Year's fireworks following the deaths of more than 20 people in Belgorod due to shelling.

BBC video segment from a town outside of Moscow: https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1741368598696759369

Ukraine, Stalled on the Front, Steps Up Sabotage, Targeting Trains

As conventional forces struggle to break through defensive lines, both sides are increasingly turning to guerrilla tactics.

www.nytimes.com

The saboteurs managed to place four explosives on a Russian freight train carrying diesel and jet fuel, roughly 3,000 miles from the Ukrainian border. But more important than the destruction of the train, Ukrainian intelligence officials said, was the timing of the blast.
They needed it to blow up as the 50 rail cars were traveling through the nine-mile-long tunnel through the Severomuysky mountains, the longest train tunnel in Russia.
The Ukrainians were hoping to compromise a vital conduit for weapons being shipped to Russia from North Korea, at a moment when Ukrainian forces on the front are struggling to stave off relentless Russian assaults. Trains can be replaced and tracks quickly repaired. But serious damage to this tunnel, which took decades to build, might not be so easy to fix.
Russia and Ukraine continue to battle on a large scale, both on the ground and with aerial strikes. Russian officials accused Ukraine of attacking a Russian city, Belgorod, on Saturday, killing at least 20 people and injuring more than 100 others, in apparent response to a huge Russian missile barrage on several Ukrainian cities the day before.
But guerrilla tactics — including sabotage, commando raids, targeted assassinations and attempts to blow up ammunition depots, oil pipelines and railways — have taken on added importance as the two sides fail to make substantial advances at the front.
So at 5:20 p.m. on Nov. 29, a fire ripped through the tunnel, Russian Railways reported. Russian media broadcast footage of flames around the tunnel entrance, and officials said the explosion was caused by “the detonation of an unidentified explosive device.”
The extent of the damage is unclear. Each side gave diverging assessments of the explosion’s impact. But a second explosion on an alternate train route nearby followed within 48 hours. Combined with other acts of sabotage in Russia and behind Russian lines in occupied Ukraine, the explosions signaled Kyiv’s increasing reliance on irregular tactics to assist conventional forces desperately defending against intensifying Russian assaults.
“The war in Ukraine is changing right now, as Ukraine increases the number of guerrilla operations against Russian forces and decreases conventional operations,” said Seth G. Jones, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who previously served as an adviser to the commanding general of the U.S. Special Operations Forces in Afghanistan. “The goal is to deliver death by a thousand cuts.”

While Ukrainian officials often say little about operations inside Russia, this time they wanted the Kremlin to have little doubt about who was behind the attacks.
“Russian special services should get used to the fact that our people are everywhere,” a senior official with the Ukrainian intelligence service, known as the SBU, said after the second rail attack, offering details of the operation on the condition of anonymity for security reasons. The details of the attacks were confirmed by the official and two other senior Ukrainian officials familiar with the operation, and corresponded with details released by the Russia authorities, videos from the scenes and reporting by Russian media outlets.

Ukrainian sabotage efforts go beyond trains. Ukrainian intelligence officials said partisans killed the Russian-appointed deputy head of the occupied Luhansk region, Oleg Popov, in a car bombing; other agents operating in Moscow shot and killed a former Ukrainian lawmaker who defected to Russia, Illya Kyva.

Don't Toews Me · Dec 31, 2023

Longer thread: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1741454000463941648

1/ THREAD on the impact of small quadcopters in the Ukraine war over the past year - based on my earlier analysis of how 2022 went and what I thought would be relevant in 2023. First, my thread from December 31, 2022:

Russia’s electronic warfare tactics are helping it turn the tide against Ukraine

At first, Ukraine noticed its GPS-guided 155mm Excalibur artillery shells suddenly started veering off target.

Then rockets fired with Himars, which Kyiv once boasted had “scalpel-like” accuracy, began missing their targets. In some areas, they almost always missed.

The same happened to JDAM guided bombs supplied to Ukraine’s air force by the United States.

Frantic investigation eventually discovered they had all fallen victim to a new threat – Russian jamming. Moscow has quietly developed a knack for taking out some of Ukraine’s most prized missiles and rockets.

It is a rare but crucial example of Russian technological advantage in a war that has been slowly tipping in Moscow’s favour.

Along almost the entirety of the front lines, an invisible wall of electromagnetic pulses now stretches like a shield.

An elaborate network of radio, infrared and radar signals hurled into the skies over the battlefield provides Russian forces with unprecedented protections in some areas.

And it’s not just Ukrainian missiles that are now failing to reach their targets. Perhaps more significant is Russia’s ability to counter the array of cheap, sometimes off-the-shelf, drones upon which Ukraine has become reliant for reconnaissance and long-range strikes.

Ukrainians know they are now at a disadvantage.

One front-line soldier, whose 120mm mortar unit regularly uses Chinese-made Mavic drones to spot targets, told The Telegraph: “They’ve always had good electronic warfare since the start of the full-scale invasion. But now it is better than us.”

Another person with knowledge of the front lines said: “It’s getting pretty intensive but nothing high-tech, just the same Russian stuff – power in quantity not quality.”

“It remains a major problem along the front,” Andrey Liscovich, of the Ukraine Defence Fund, recently told the Geopolitics Decanted podcast.

He explained Ukrainian forces are in a “continual game of cat and mouse” with their Russian enemy as they jostle for control of the airwaves.

The radio frequencies used to fly both first-person view attack drones and spotter UAV are “getting jammed quite comprehensively”.

Chadstroma · Dec 31, 2023

BassNBrew said:
Just don't mention Biden. J has previously said please report anything remotely political, it won't be tolerated. Just say the US is sending X, Y, and Z. Just pretend the B guy and the T guy don't exist in the FFA. This thread will be plenty informational if we stick to Ukraine/Russia news. Yeah, we may be missing important pieces of the story, but getting 80% of it here in one places due to the work of some exceptional posters combing through numerous sources is a huge value. We already saw what happened to the Hamas/Israel thread when people can't follow the rules. If an occasional loose cannon shows up in here just report it and let the mods handle it. When people respond to those posts entire threads get nuked.

I understand the 'no politics' ban to a large degree but then there is going on the other side of that and being childish about how you censure it all. Same silliness that got me a Facebook timeout because I said "I would burn their house down" within a post that was all about taking legal action if someone harmed my children before and after that sentence. It was blatant that 'burn their house down' was a figure of speech regarding how I would go after them with everything in a legal sense. But then I got a 5 day ban. Just frustrating.

BassNBrew · Dec 31, 2023

Chadstroma said:
BassNBrew said:

Just don't mention Biden. J has previously said please report anything remotely political, it won't be tolerated. Just say the US is sending X, Y, and Z. Just pretend the B guy and the T guy don't exist in the FFA. This thread will be plenty informational if we stick to Ukraine/Russia news. Yeah, we may be missing important pieces of the story, but getting 80% of it here in one places due to the work of some exceptional posters combing through numerous sources is a huge value. We already saw what happened to the Hamas/Israel thread when people can't follow the rules. If an occasional loose cannon shows up in here just report it and let the mods handle it. When people respond to those posts entire threads get nuked.

Click to expand...

I understand the 'no politics' ban to a large degree but then there is going on the other side of that and being childish about how you censure it all. Same silliness that got me a Facebook timeout because I said "I would burn their house down" within a post that was all about taking legal action if someone harmed my children before and after that sentence. It was blatant that 'burn their house down' was a figure of speech regarding how I would go after them with everything in a legal sense. But then I got a 5 day ban. Just frustrating.

In theory you may be right. In practice, if you had a rule at your house that I disagreed with, I'd either abide or leave. This forum is J's house. This thread his his barbecue he's serving us. Don't make him not invite us back because you prefer vinegar based sauce over tomato based sauce.

Also given the lack of inventory in this market, anyone threatening to burn down a house deserve a timeout.

FBG Moderator · Dec 31, 2023

Chadstroma said:
BassNBrew said:

Just don't mention Biden. J has previously said please report anything remotely political, it won't be tolerated. Just say the US is sending X, Y, and Z. Just pretend the B guy and the T guy don't exist in the FFA. This thread will be plenty informational if we stick to Ukraine/Russia news. Yeah, we may be missing important pieces of the story, but getting 80% of it here in one places due to the work of some exceptional posters combing through numerous sources is a huge value. We already saw what happened to the Hamas/Israel thread when people can't follow the rules. If an occasional loose cannon shows up in here just report it and let the mods handle it. When people respond to those posts entire threads get nuked.

Click to expand...

I understand the 'no politics' ban to a large degree but then there is going on the other side of that and being childish about how you censure it all. Same silliness that got me a Facebook timeout because I said "I would burn their house down" within a post that was all about taking legal action if someone harmed my children before and after that sentence. It was blatant that 'burn their house down' was a figure of speech regarding how I would go after them with everything in a legal sense. But then I got a 5 day ban. Just frustrating.

On the flip side, it's not terribly difficult to just not type the words threatening to burn someone's house down. :shrug:

Chadstroma · Dec 31, 2023

FBG Moderator said:
Chadstroma said:

BassNBrew said:

Just don't mention Biden. J has previously said please report anything remotely political, it won't be tolerated. Just say the US is sending X, Y, and Z. Just pretend the B guy and the T guy don't exist in the FFA. This thread will be plenty informational if we stick to Ukraine/Russia news. Yeah, we may be missing important pieces of the story, but getting 80% of it here in one places due to the work of some exceptional posters combing through numerous sources is a huge value. We already saw what happened to the Hamas/Israel thread when people can't follow the rules. If an occasional loose cannon shows up in here just report it and let the mods handle it. When people respond to those posts entire threads get nuked.

Click to expand...

I understand the 'no politics' ban to a large degree but then there is going on the other side of that and being childish about how you censure it all. Same silliness that got me a Facebook timeout because I said "I would burn their house down" within a post that was all about taking legal action if someone harmed my children before and after that sentence. It was blatant that 'burn their house down' was a figure of speech regarding how I would go after them with everything in a legal sense. But then I got a 5 day ban. Just frustrating.

Click to expand...

On the flip side, it's not terribly difficult to just not type the words threatening to burn someone's house down.

On the flip side, it's not terribly difficult to understand the English language and the use of things like hyperbole, analogy, simile, figure of speech, etc in context. :shrug:

Chadstroma · Dec 31, 2023

BassNBrew said:
Chadstroma said:

BassNBrew said:

Just don't mention Biden. J has previously said please report anything remotely political, it won't be tolerated. Just say the US is sending X, Y, and Z. Just pretend the B guy and the T guy don't exist in the FFA. This thread will be plenty informational if we stick to Ukraine/Russia news. Yeah, we may be missing important pieces of the story, but getting 80% of it here in one places due to the work of some exceptional posters combing through numerous sources is a huge value. We already saw what happened to the Hamas/Israel thread when people can't follow the rules. If an occasional loose cannon shows up in here just report it and let the mods handle it. When people respond to those posts entire threads get nuked.

Click to expand...

I understand the 'no politics' ban to a large degree but then there is going on the other side of that and being childish about how you censure it all. Same silliness that got me a Facebook timeout because I said "I would burn their house down" within a post that was all about taking legal action if someone harmed my children before and after that sentence. It was blatant that 'burn their house down' was a figure of speech regarding how I would go after them with everything in a legal sense. But then I got a 5 day ban. Just frustrating.

Click to expand...

In theory you may be right. In practice, if you had a rule at your house that I disagreed with, I'd either abide or leave. This forum is J's house. This thread his his barbecue he's serving us. Don't make him not invite us back because you prefer vinegar based sauce over tomato based sauce.

Also given the lack of inventory in this market, anyone threatening to burn down a house deserve a timeout.

The host that doesn't listen to the guests may end up finding himself hosting a party of one.

IF it was an actual threat to burn an actual home down, then I agree.

2Young2BBald · Jan 2, 2024

Curious about fighter jet status for Ukraine, I found this slightly dated article from the middle of last month. I've tried to keep up with this thread and the war in general, but didn't appreciate that:

Jets are not an if, they are a when. The initial number of jets, pilots and ground crew are ID'd and training is ongoing. Runways appear to be in prep to accommodate the jets too.
The jets are part of a "long game" (my term) to fully integrate Ukraine in to NATO efforts, versus a win the current war concept. Seems simple, but I am not sure I connected the dots on the intent, as I was only thinking about the win the current war aspect. More Captain Obvious analysis here, but this provides that NATO "feels" some form of Ukraine intact end to the conflict and contributing NATO membership will be the eventual outcome.

Obviously, the article does not provide how the jets will get into the country and begin initial use. Hard to process the impact if they merely fly in from a NATO base, but also difficult to see how they could be safely concealed by train. Lastly, a wonder if Russia recent barrage to drones and missiles is an indication that they feel the introduction of the jets are relatively imminent.

themeistersinger · Jan 2, 2024

Ukraine Soldiers Share What Happened in the Offensive

Customize your engagement ring or jewelry piece today with James Allen and get 25% off at https://bit.ly/49ZfzAfWhat really happened during the Ukrainian 202...

www.youtube.com

Don't Toews Me · Jan 2, 2024

Russia Hammers Kyiv With Missiles in Large-Scale Attack

Russia said that Ukraine retaliated hours later with missile attacks on Russian territory, part of an escalating cycle of air assaults between the two countries.

www.nytimes.com

Russian missiles and drones hammered Kyiv on Tuesday morning, officials said, in a large-scale attack on the Ukrainian capital and other cities, the day after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia promised to retaliate for a Ukrainian assault on a Russian city.
The Ukrainian Air Force said the barrage involved some of Russia’s most powerful weapons, including hypersonic missiles that fly at several times the speed of sound. Air-raid alerts sounded constantly in Kyiv on Tuesday morning, as wave after wave of missiles rained down.
One person in the city, an older woman, died in the attack, and 43 people were injured, including two children, according to Vitali Klitschko, the city’s mayor. Two others were killed in the Fastiv region near Kyiv, Ukraine’s interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, said in a post on Telegram.

Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city and near the border with Russia, also came under a large-scale missile attack, according to Oleh Syniehubov, the head of the regional military administration there. At least one person was killed there and 41 were injured, he said.
The attacks were launched hours after Mr. Putin had vowed to respond to what Moscow said were Ukrainian strikes on Saturday that killed 24 people in the Russian city of Belgorod. “From our side, we will build up the strikes,” Mr. Putin said on Monday.
The attack on Belgorod, according to a Ukrainian official, was in response to a Russian missile barrage the day before, one of its largest air attacks of the nearly two-year-old war. That assault on Friday killed at least 39 people, wounded about 160 others and hit critical industrial and military infrastructure as well as hospitals and schools, the Ukrainian authorities said.

Over the past year, Ukraine has received powerful air-defense systems from its allies, including Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries, which have proved successful at repelling many Russian attacks.
Though Ukraine is well supplied with Western weapons, the surface-to-air missiles that are needed to intercept Russian missiles are in short supply. And with a front line more than 600 miles long, important air defenses need to be evenly distributed to protect Ukrainian troops from Russian attack helicopters and jets.
This has left Ukrainian forces in a difficult position as they juggle resources, trying to ensure that the front line and major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Lviv have sufficient supplies for their defenses.
Ukrainian officials warned in the fall that Russia had stockpiled more than 800 high-precision weapons in preparation for massive winter assaults.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1742094394273022360

It certainly felt like the most sustained attack on the capital I've experienced since first days of the war. The May barrages were also intensive, but I don't think they used quite as many missiles in quite as many waves. Lots of reports of damage and injuries around the city.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1742146071357239652

Ukraine’s Air Force reports at least 83 Russian missiles launched in today’s attack; 72 of them downed by air defenses.

Some video in this thread: https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1742090521344938300

Russia used nearly 2 dozen strategic bombers to launch missile strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv this morning. Kyiv injury toll is climbing past 20; Kharkiv's is over 40. This from Kyiv

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1742134518042034359

The Russian Defense Ministry said that at about 9 a.m. local time, “an unscheduled release of an aviation munition occurred” as a military plane was flying over Russia. At least seven houses were damaged.

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1742106133689672085

The Ukrainian military claims to have intercepted all of the 35 Shahed-131/136 OWA UAVs detected in this morning's attack.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1742123825318268936

The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 35 Shahed drones, at least 70 Kh-101 / Kh-555 / Kh-55 from 16 Tu-95MS bombers, 10 Kinzhal, 3 Kalibr, 12 ballistic S-300 / S-400 / Iskander-M, and 4 Kh-31P missiles over night.

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1742214067433943463

This is a good chronology and summary of today’s missile attacks on Ukraine, h/t ⁦@JanR210. Russian forces continue experimenting with missile arrival times, routes, & launch profiles in an attempt to overwhelm missile defenses in Kyiv. /1
I share the view that Russia has been preparing these strikes for some time— their targeting cycle is still slow and they’ve pooledresources for months. be skeptical of any suggestions this was a “retaliation for Belgorod” or similar, that would only be a Russian PR claim. /2
Russia had attempted variants of this complex strike last year, when they targeted the Patriot battery in Kyiv. They are trying to exhaust Ukrainian interceptors and systems. Other parts of Ukraine are more exposed. /3
Yet, the Russians draw down their own inventory at the same time. They are producing more missiles than in 2022, but they are using missiles produced in the summer/fall 2023 according to some missile debris. Losing a reported 10 of 10 kinzhals is a hit /4
Final point: Ukraine’s air defenders are working very hard to defend. Yet Russia has the ability to build and launch missiles at a time of their choosing. This doesn’t end until their ability to launch the missiles is degraded, and yes I mean the launchers. /end

Don't Toews Me · Jan 2, 2024

Ukraine war: Russian missile strikes cut water and gas in Kyiv

Zelensky decries ‘animal’ Putin and pleads for the West to provide long-range weapons

www.thetimes.co.uk

Russia has launched hypersonic missiles at Kyiv, severing the water and gas supply to parts of the Ukrainian capital just as temperatures are set to plunge to as low as minus 13C in the coming days.
Russian MiG-31 fighters fired waves of Kinzhal missiles at Kyiv in a barrage that began hours after President Putin promised retaliation for an attack on the Russian city of Belgorod.
President Zelensky described Putin as an “animal” and pleaded for Germany to send long-range missiles.

‘Seething’ Putin hammers Ukraine with massive missile and drone attacks

It could be ‘the biggest attack’ on Kyiv since start of invasion, says Ukrainian MP.

www.politico.eu

“It’s probably the biggest attack on Kyiv & [Ukraine] as a whole since the start of full-scale invasion. Urgent action in providing additional air defense capabilities needed,” said Ukrainian MP Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze in a post on social media.

Turkey says UK minehunters can’t be sent to Ukraine

Letting two Royal Navy ships through would violate the Montreux Convention, Ankara declares.

www.politico.eu

Two British minehunter ships destined for Ukraine cannot travel through Turkish waters, Ankara stressed Tuesday, citing an international pact.

U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced last month that Ukraine's armed forces had struck a deal to procure the Sandown Class vessels from Britain's Royal Navy as the war-torn country grapples with Russia's continued blockade of the Black Sea.

But Turkey confirmed it had informed its NATO allies that the ships would not be allowed to travel through its waters.

"Our pertinent allies have been duly apprised that the mine-hunting ships donated to Ukraine by the United Kingdom will not be allowed to pass through the Turkish Straits to the Black Sea as long as the war continues," a statement from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's communications directorate said.

The Turkish statement — challenging what it called "disinformation about U.K. mine-hunting ships" — stressed that the Turkish Straits are closed to Russian and Ukrainian warships while the conflict between the two countries continues, citing the Montreux Convention of 1936 which governs maritime traffic through those waters.

The U.K. government had earlier indicated it expected the convention to prevent the immediate transfer of the ships.

Don't Toews Me · Jan 2, 2024

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-says-threat-level-russian-strikes-reduced-planes-return-base-2024-01-02/

Poland said on Tuesday that planes protecting its airspace had returned to base after the threat level related to Russian strikes on Ukraine had reduced.
Earlier, Poland had deployed two pairs of F-16 fighters and an allied tanker in the face of Russian attacks on Ukraine.
"Due to the reduced level of threat, the operations of Polish and allied aircraft on duty in our airspace have been ended. The resources returned to their bases and standard operating activities," the Polish army's operational command said on X.

https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1742147983167148516

Chinese shipments to Russia of advanced machine tools have increased tenfold since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the country’s producers now dominating trade in high-precision CNC devices vital to Moscow’s military industries. https://ft.com/content/d16c688d-9579-4f1d-a84f-ca29ca2f0bc0

https://twitter.com/WarSpotting/status/1742181129170407637

Here's our latest update to losses in .

Last week of 2023 holds 79 total vehicles lost (incl. 22 MBTs, 41 IFVs), which is on par with the week before (78 now) and significantly higher than over exact same period last year (53).

1/2
We can now reliably assess that Dec 2023 is the third time (and first since Aug) this year's numbers surpass 2022. Moreover, seems to enter 2024 on a high gear meaning this trend might continue.

We'll be sharing end-of-the-year summary in the upcoming days. Stay tuned!

2/2

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1742120618575769832

Ukrainian Air Force report for the night with claimed intercepts.

With the large attack of the 29th, the large Shahed raid on New Years Eve and now this I'd say the main phase of the anticipated Russian winter strike campaign is underway.

Video: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1742124343943975408

The moment a downed rocket falls into the water in Kyiv

Video: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1742217579303772338

Newest Russian 1K148 "Yastreb-AV"artillery reconnaissance complex demilitarised by HIMARS. Kherson region.

Video: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1742209684302385287

In case you missed it, a powerful Russian missile fell today in a Petropavlovka district of Voronezh, south Russia. Authorities are hiding casualties. Look at the amount of damage just one missile did. Russia is sending hundreds of these at Ukrainian cities.

Thread on some updates along the front the last few weeks: https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1742214741211103616

Chadstroma · Jan 3, 2024

Russia Announced It Had Deployed, To Ukraine, Its Best New Artillery-Detecting Radar. Hours Later, The Ukrainians Blew It Up—With Artillery.

Russian media announced the deployment of Russia’s high-tech counterbattery radar. Hours later in southern Ukraine, the Ukrainians blew it up ... with artillery rockets.

www.forbes.com

Don't Toews Me · Jan 3, 2024

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1742596656267161642

Ukraine and Russia just completed the largest exchange of prisoners of war since Putin’s full-scale invasion began. Kyiv received 230 POWs, including soldiers and civilians; Russia got 248. This is the first swap in months. Kyiv had said that Moscow was holding them up.

Norwegian F-16s headed to Denmark for training Ukrainian pilots – DW – 01/03/2024

p.dw.com

Norway will send two F-16 fighter jets to Denmark to help with the training of Ukrainian pilots, the Norwegian defense minister has said.

Ukraine has appealed for US-made F-16s to boost its air force as it fights off Russia's invasion, but its pilots, who are largely used only to Soviet-era warplanes, need to learn to adapt to the more modern aircraft.

Norway, which has replaced its own F-16s with the newer F-35 model, last year said it would join Denmark, the Netherlands and others in donating the aircraft to Kyiv.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1742535976843428004

Russian war bloggers have lost large numbers of Telegram followers in the last 6 months

Since June, Semyon Pegov (WarGonzo) has seen his following fall from 1.3m to 1.09m, Alexander Sladkov from 1.08m to 944,000 while Yevgeny Poddubny also lost 170,000

https://twitter.com/Cyberdefensecom/status/1742377516398965099

Every Ukrainian downing of Russian hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal with the Patriot missiles will improve the Patriot missile intercept algorithm - and increase accuracy for all Patriot systems, a benefit for the US, the rest of NATO, and other Patriot AD users. The same goes for any RUS aircraft that is shot down. Data quality is high because it is live tested; it is not a desk job or theoretical calculation; this is data from a successful intercept. The value of the data is really high as it can kick the success rate in the long run from, let's say, 85 % to 99 % against a type of target, so if RUS in a continued war launches 20 low-yield tactical nukes using 47M2 Kinzhal against NATO targets, with improved data likely no missile makes it to target. If the data had been unimproved - 3 would have made it through AD and detonated. Therefore, providing UKR with Patriot missiles is an investment in any provider's defense and gives high defense ROI as the improved algorithm upgrades its existing systems.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1742505959564485060

As I reported on Friday, Russia has switched from an aerial campaign targeting energy infrastructure to one largely targeting defence production. With a large number of misses and hitting civilian buildings in process.

Bundestag MP calls for immediate transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine after massive Russian attacks

The head of the Defense Committee of Germany’s Bundestag parliament, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, has called for the transfer of powerful German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine after another massive Russian attack on Jan. 2, T-online reports.

news.yahoo.com

The head of the Defense Committee of Germany’s Bundestag parliament, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, has called for the transfer of powerful German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine after another massive Russian attack on Jan. 2, T-online reports.

Strack-Zimmermann also urged the government to speed up the supply of ammunition to Ukraine.

"Ukraine needs more ammunition, more spare parts, and we need to mobilize the Taurus immediately to make it difficult for Russia to resupply for good," the MP said.

Strack-Zimmermann also stressed that the F-16 (multi-role fighter) coalition should be operational as soon as possible so that Ukraine can challenge Russian air superiority.

"Putin is counting on us being afraid of our own bravery," the German MP added.

“And he is obviously right. This hesitance is very bitter.”

Berlin decries Russian strikes on Ukraine, but Scholz still opposes supplying Taurus missiles to Kyiv

Berlin is still not ready to provide Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv, German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said, at the same time condemning Russia's recent attacks on Ukraine and calling them a war crime, German Tagesschau reported on Jan. 3.

news.yahoo.com

Berlin is still not ready to provide Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv, German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said, at the same time condemning Russia's recent attacks on Ukraine and calling them a war crime, German Tagesschau reported on Jan. 3.

"There is no new status in this matter," he said while stressing that massive attacks on civilian infrastructure are "absolutely disgusting."

themeistersinger · Jan 3, 2024

‘I’m in shock:’ Russia’s mass attack on Kyiv shatters lives and dreams

Semen Nedanov could hardly hold back his tears when he showed the Kyiv Independent what was left of his flat in the central Solomiansky district after a Russian attack on Kyiv early on Jan. 2. “I’m in shock,” the 48-year-old told the Kyiv Independent as he waited for first

kyivindependent.com

themeistersinger · Jan 4, 2024

I haven't read any myself, but would like to take a look

10 Ukrainian books about Russia’s war available in English

Ukraine’s authors should have been able to dedicate their lives to honing their craft. Instead, many of them have stepped up to contribute to the war effort and fight back against Russian aggression. Like any other member of society, Ukrainian authors have lost loved ones and colleagues to Russia’

kyivindependent.com

Don't Toews Me · Jan 4, 2024

Ukraine war: US says Russia using North Korea ballistic missiles

The US promises to raise what it calls a significant and concerning escalation at the UN Security Council.

www.bbc.com

Russia has used ballistic missiles and launchers supplied by North Korea in its war on Ukraine, the US has said.

WSJ News Exclusive | Russia Moves Forward With Plans to Buy Iranian Ballistic Missiles

Moscow in recent weeks has also begun receiving ballistic missiles from North Korea.

www.wsj.com

Russia is planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, a step that would enhance Moscow’s ability to target Ukraine’s infrastructure at a critical moment in the conflict, U.S. officials said.

“The United States is concerned that Russian negotiations to acquire close-range ballistic missiles from Iran are actively advancing,” one of the U.S. officials said. “We assess that Russia intends to purchase missile systems from Iran.”
Delivery of the Iranian missiles could happen as soon as this spring if the purchase proceeds, but U.S. officials don’t believe the deal has been completed.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-hackers-were-inside-ukraine-telecoms-giant-months-cyber-spy-chief-2024-01-04/

Russian hackers were inside Ukrainian telecoms giant Kyivstar's system from at least May last year in a cyberattack that should serve as a "big warning" to the West, Ukraine's cyber spy chief told Reuters.
The hack, one of the most dramatic since Russia's full-scale invasion nearly two years ago, knocked out services provided by Ukraine's biggest telecoms operator for some 24 million users for days from Dec. 12.
In an interview, Illia Vitiuk, head of the Security Service of Ukraine's (SBU) cybersecurity department, disclosed exclusive details about the hack, which he said caused "disastrous" destruction and aimed to land a psychological blow and gather intelligence.
"This attack is a big message, a big warning, not only to Ukraine, but for the whole Western world to understand that no one is actually untouchable," he said. He noted Kyivstar was a wealthy, private company that invested a lot in cybersecurity.
The attack wiped "almost everything", including thousands of virtual servers and PCs, he said, describing it as probably the first example of a destructive cyberattack that "completely destroyed the core of a telecoms operator."
During its investigation, the SBU found the hackers probably attempted to penetrate Kyivstar in March or earlier, he said in a Zoom interview on Dec. 27.
"For now, we can say securely, that they were in the system at least since May 2023," he said. "I cannot say right now, since what time they had ... full access: probably at least since November."

The SBU assessed the hackers would have been able to steal personal information, understand the locations of phones, intercept SMS-messages and perhaps steal Telegram accounts with the level of access they gained, he said.
A Kyivstar spokesperson said the company was working closely with the SBU to investigate the attack and would take all necessary steps to eliminate future risks, adding: "No facts of leakage of personal and subscriber data have been revealed."
Vitiuk said the SBU helped Kyivstar restore its systems within days and to repel new cyber attacks.
"After the major break there were a number of new attempts aimed at dealing more damage to the operator," he said.
Kyivstar is the biggest of Ukraine's three main telecoms operators and there are some 1.1 million Ukrainians who live in small towns and villages where there are no other providers, Vitiuk said.
People rushed to buy other SIM cards because of the attack, creating large queues. ATMs using Kyivstar SIM cards for the internet ceased to work and the air-raid siren - used during missile and drone attacks - did not function properly in some regions, he said.
He said the attack had no big impact on Ukraine's military, which did not rely on telecoms operators and made use of what he described as "different algorithms and protocols".
"Speaking about drone detection, speaking about missile detection, luckily, no, this situation didn't affect us strongly," he said.

Vitiuk said SBU investigators were still working to establish how Kyivstar was penetrated or what type of trojan horse malware could have been used to break in, adding that it could have been phishing, someone helping on the inside or something else.

Don't Toews Me · Jan 4, 2024

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-hit-two-russian-military-targets-occupied-crimea-2024-01-04/

Ukraine said on Thursday its air force conducted a strike on a Russian command post near the occupied city of Sevastopol more than 200 km (120 miles) from Kyiv-held territory, and hit a military unit in a separate strike on the Crimean peninsula.
Russia's Defence Ministry said its air defence units had downed a total of 36 Ukrainian drones over Crimea.
Ukraine's Air Force Commander, Mykola Oleshchuk, posted a video from social media on the Telegram messaging app showing smoke rising from an explosion near Sevastopol, a Crimean port that serves as the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/04/politics/russia-iran-missiles-ukraine/index.html

Russia appears to be moving forward with plans to purchase ballistic missiles from Iran, a US official told CNN, as Moscow steps up its missile attacks on targets across Ukraine.
Russian negotiations to acquire the close-range ballistic missiles from Iran “are actively advancing,” the official said, citing newly declassified US intelligence. The official pointed to a meeting between Iranian military officials from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Iran in September, where the Iranians showcased to the Russians their Ababil close-range ballistic missile and other missile systems.
“This event marked the first public display of ballistic missiles to a senior Russian official visiting Iran since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war,” the official said.

‘I want to live’: Russians defect to Ukraine by calling army hotline

Hundreds of soldiers have handed themselves over to Kyiv after ringing dedicated number

www.ft.com

As of December, more than 220 Russian soldiers had given themselves up through the hotline, Vitaliy Matvienko, a spokesperson for GUR’s department for prisoners of war, told the Financial Times. More than 1,000 other cases were pending, Matvienko added, disclosing both figures for the first time.

Not sure how credible this is: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1743024481310736528

Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi reportedly tells Verkhovna Rada deputies in a closed session that is running out of soldiers and that the deputies themselves should enlist for combat. (Sounds more like a political speech than military strategy.)

Thread: https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1743005065227513896

Russia launched missiles from the DPRK up to 460km inside Ukraine, according to declassified intelligence (assessments for other launches are ongoing). A few thoughts. /1
Looking at that 460km range, when the max for that system is 900km (per John Kirby), I have some working theories on Russian thinking on precedents or “norms” for externally provided missile use, but I will wait to see what else is released. /2
Without knowing ranges of the other strikes from this system it is too soon to interpret the significance of 460km range yet. Was this a misfire (landed in empty field)? deliberate lofting of the missile to shorten range (effective v max kinematic range), targeting choice? /3
Storm Shadow, SCALD, and ATACMs have ranges less than this 460km Russian launch.

460km is below the 500km range of Taurus missiles. Not enough info yet to know if that was deliberate but they do think in these terms. Western decisions should be independent of that anyway. /4
So at minimum, the Russians have set a new use precedent for externally provided missiles in this war at ranges of -460km.
Perhaps new declassified analysis comes out that the launch ranges were well beyond 500 km. If so, I’ll update. /5

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/04/russia-north-korean-missiles-ukraine/

U.S. officials believe that in exchange for the ballistic missiles, North Korea is seeking a variety of military equipment from Russia, including fighter aircraft, surface-to-air-missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment and other advanced technologies.
Michael Kofman, a military analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia’s war effort is being bolstered by imports of weaponry.
“Russia’s mobilized defense industrial production is now producing significantly more missiles per month than it was before the war. However, this is still not sufficient relative to its needs and can’t replace the stockpile of missiles it’s expended over the course of the last two years,” he said. “That means that Russia would benefit from having access to an additional stockpile from countries like North Korea.”
While officials said Pyongyang had provided “several dozen ballistic missiles” thus far, the extent of the weapons North Korea sent and how much it plans to provide in the coming months remain unclear.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1743018241205678505

Ukraine has effective AD capabilities to counter shahed drones and cruise missiles, but depends on a limited number of Patriot batteries to intercept ballistic missiles. Aside from Kyiv, Ukraine has a limited ability to defend against ballistic missile strikes on other cities.

For example, the Ukrainian Air Force says it shot down a large number of the shahed drones and air-launched cruise missiles launched on Dec 29, but none of the 8 Kh-22/Kh-32; 14 S-300/S-400/Iskander-M, or 5 Kinzhal missiles were intercepted.
Russia will likely continue to launch missiles with a ballistic trajectory at Kyiv and other cities at the same time to exploit Ukraine's limited ballistic missile defenses.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1742973897333411886

Kyivstar network destruction is a tactical success but a strategic failure for Russia.
To have such access and incredible collection opportunity for months and then destroy it all one day for no tangible gain but bragging rights is incredibly myopic

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1742962056632910189

Ukraine’s military intelligence says a Su-34 bomber plane caught fire at a military airfield in Russia. According to Ukrainian media, the aircraft was set on fire as part of a Ukrainian “special operation.”

Video: https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1742860828544549116

intense video of a Russian armored column -- tanks and IFVs -- trying to advance near Synkivka, Kharkiv Oblast, and failing spectacularly. Ukrainian unit responsible identified as the 30th Mechanized Brigade.

Video: https://twitter.com/WarVehicle/status/1743044104043278818

In the recent days Ukraine has experienced Strikes on FOBs, by what I suspect to be North Korean KN-23 Ballistic Missiles. More below.
(1) FOB Containing alot of Trucks(Ural, Ural Tankers etc). The fact that the houses caught fire aswell indicates a resupply base in them.

https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1743046201899962578

This is very interesting. Video material from this kind of ballistic missile strikes on FOBs has been relatively limited lately.

This indicates that Russia has received enough missiles to supplement both operational and strategic strike capability.

themeistersinger · Jan 4, 2024

Putin's War, Week 97. The Missile War Continues

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/01/04/putins-war-week-97-n2168280

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