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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)


Welp, maybe @Chadstroma is right and I'm wrong. Sharia it is. Syria can't catch a break. I usually avoid X comments, but in the thread above there's plenty who saw the same stuff I saw.

In more bad news I saw video of Kurds throwing tomatoes at US troops leaving. A city of 100k has fallen to the other band of islamists backed by Turkey.

Here's that if you care.


Syrian christians are gonna suffer. Kurds are gonna suffer. Syria will descend into madness. Ugh. I'm tuning out today. Thank God for RedZone.
Assad was a brutal dictator and his defeat is a positive thing for the people of Syria. I hope that something good can come out for minorities in that country but fear it won’t. Below is an example of Christian celebrating. But who knows what Syria will look like even a week from now let alone a year or 5 years but what existed before was awful and at this stage I am happy for them.

I fear it was probably a lateral move in terms of human rights, but in the short term at least Russia and Iran losing a key ally is a net positive for us.
Let’s not forget how bad Assad was - Chemical weapons attacks on his own country, mass crematoriums to hide murders of opposition, barrel bombing civilians, purposely attacking hospitals and a political prison system that from recent videos held small children are a few examples. This is a good thing for human rights and hopefully the country can take this opportunity and make itself a better place.
Yes, but I just can't get excited about them bringing what I understand is likely to be an Afghanistan-under-the-Taliban style rule to the country either.
 

Welp, maybe @Chadstroma is right and I'm wrong. Sharia it is. Syria can't catch a break. I usually avoid X comments, but in the thread above there's plenty who saw the same stuff I saw.

In more bad news I saw video of Kurds throwing tomatoes at US troops leaving. A city of 100k has fallen to the other band of islamists backed by Turkey.

Here's that if you care.


Syrian christians are gonna suffer. Kurds are gonna suffer. Syria will descend into madness. Ugh. I'm tuning out today. Thank God for RedZone.
Assad was a brutal dictator and his defeat is a positive thing for the people of Syria. I hope that something good can come out for minorities in that country but fear it won’t. Below is an example of Christian celebrating. But who knows what Syria will look like even a week from now let alone a year or 5 years but what existed before was awful and at this stage I am happy for them.

I fear it was probably a lateral move in terms of human rights, but in the short term at least Russia and Iran losing a key ally is a net positive for us.
Let’s not forget how bad Assad was - Chemical weapons attacks on his own country, mass crematoriums to hide murders of opposition, barrel bombing civilians, purposely attacking hospitals and a political prison system that from recent videos held small children are a few examples. This is a good thing for human rights and hopefully the country can take this opportunity and make itself a better place.
Yes, but I just can't get excited about them bringing what I understand is likely to be an Afghanistan-under-the-Taliban style rule to the country either.
Yeah, I hope that is not the result. The HTS' leader seems to be saying the right things but that could also have been him trying to pull together a very diverse coalition to take down everyone's enemy Assad. We will have to watch what he does but right now I am trying to be hopeful.
 
So mow that Assad is gone what happens to the leader of HTS who the US has
The HTS' leader seems to be saying the right things
maybe because he knows we have a 10 million dollar bounty on his head. But the enemy of our enemy I guess
If Syria was smart, they would play nice with Israel and Turkiye. For ~50 years they have tried to rely on Iran, and for even more than that Russia, to protect them. How has that gone? Seems to me doing the exact opposite of that might help their country. If they played nice with Turkey and Israel, those countries with extremely powerful militaries might keep them relatively safe. Lebanon the same...such a beautiful country 60 years ago.

It won't happen, but if Syria declared Israel a country tomorrow, set up clear borders and boundaries, and let others help keep Russia and Iran out ... Syria would be setting themselves up to get out of this 50+ year period of complete sorrow. Like I said it won't happen. But that's their way to freedom. Playing nice with the real powers around them ... Turkiye and Israel. Jordan to a certain extent has done this. While it is still a authoritarian, you don't hear a lot of issues in Jordan. The 1994 Jordan/Israeli peace treaty is exactly what Syria needs IMO
 
Great article. (maybe because it is what I have already been stating)

Putin’s regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think​


Ukraine is slowly losing the three-year conflict on the battlefield. Russia is slowly losing the economic conflict at a roughly equal pace. The Kremlin’s oil export revenues are too low to sustain a high-intensity war and nobody will lend Vladimir Putin a kopeck.

Russia’s overheated, military-Keynesian war economy looks much like the dysfunctional German war economy of late 1917, which had run out of skilled manpower and was holed below the waterline after three years of Allied blockade – as the logistical failures of the Ludendorff offensive would later reveal.

Putin’s strategic victory in Ukraine was far from inevitable a fortnight ago and it is less inevitable now after the Assad regime collapsed like a house of cards, shattering Putin’s credibility in the Middle East and the Sahel. He could do nothing to save his sole state ally in the Arab world.

“The limits of Russian military power have been revealed,” said Tim Ash, a regional expert at Bluebay Asset Management and a Chatham House fellow.

Turkey is now master of the region. Turkish forces had to step in to rescue stranded Russian generals. Even if Putin succeeds in holding on to his naval base at Tartus – a big if – this concession will be on Ottoman terms and sufferance. “Putin now goes into Ukraine peace talks from a position of weakness,” said Mr Ash.

When Trump won the US elections in 2016, corks of Golubitskoe Villa Romanov popped at the Kremlin. There were no illusions this time. Anton Barbashin from Riddle Russia says Donald Trump imposed 40 rounds of sanctions on Russia, belying his bonhomie with Putin before the cameras. He has since warned that Putin will not get all of the four annexed (but unconquered) oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia.

The Kremlin had banked on a contested election outcome in the US, followed by months of disarray that would discredit US democracy across the world. The polite interregnum has been a cruel disappointment.

Barbashin says Russia’s leaders expect Trump to issue ultimatums to both Kyiv and Moscow: if Volodymyr Zelensky balks at peace terms, the US will sever all military aid; if Putin drags his feet, the US will up the military ante and carpet-bomb the Russian economy.

That economy held up well for two years but this third year has become harder. The central bank has raised interest rates to 21pc to choke off an inflation spiral. “The economy cannot exist like this for long. It’s a colossal challenge for business and banks,” said German Gref, Sberbank’s chief executive.

Sergei Chemezov, head of the defence giant Rostec, said the monetary squeeze was becoming dangerous. “If we continue like this, most companies will essentially go bankrupt. At rates of more than 20pc, I don’t know of a single business that can make a profit, not even an arms trader,” he said.

The resurrection of the Soviet military industrial complex – to borrow a term from Pierre-Marie Meunier, the French intelligence analyst – is cannibalising the rest of the economy. Some 800,000 of the young and best-educated have left the country. The numbers slaughtered or maimed in the meat grinder are approaching half a million.

Russia’s digital minister says the shortage of IT workers is around 600,000. The defence industry has 400,000 unfilled positions. The total labour shortage is near 5m.

Anatoly Kovalev, head of Zelenograd Nanotechnology Centre, said his industry was crippled by lack of equipment and could not replace foreign supplies. “There is a shortage of qualified specialists: engineers, technologists, developers, designers. There are practically no colleges and technical schools that train personnel for the industry,” he said.

Total export earnings from all fossil fuels were running at about $1.2bn (£940m) a day in mid-2022. They have fallen for the last 10 months consecutively and are now barely $600mn. The Kremlin takes a slice of this for the budget but it is far too little to fund a war machine gobbling up a 10th of GDP in one way or another.

Oil tax revenues slumped to $5.8bn in November, based on a Urals price averaging near $65 a barrel. That price could fall a lot further. Russia is facing an incipient price war with Saudi Arabia in Asian markets.

Putin is raiding the National Wealth Fund to cover the shortfall. Its liquid assets have fallen to a 16-year low of $54bn. Its gold reserves have dropped from 554 to 279 tonnes over the last 15 months. The fund is left with illiquid holdings that cannot be crystallised, such as an equity stake in Aeroflot.

The long-awaited rally in oil prices keeps refusing to happen. JP Morgan said excess global supply next year would reach 1.3m barrels a day due to rising output from Brazil, Guyana, and US shale. Rosneft’s Igor Sechin has told his old KGB friend Putin to brace for $45-$50 next year. Adjusted for inflation, that matches levels that bankrupted the Soviet Union in the 1980s.


The purpose of the G7’s convoluted oil sanctions was – until a month ago – to eat into Putin’s revenue without curtailing global oil supply and worsening the cost of living shock in the West. This has been a partial success. Russia had to assemble a shadow fleet of tankers and ship oil from Baltic and Black Sea ports to buyers in India and China, who pressed a hard bargain.

The International Energy Agency estimates that the discount on Urals crude has averaged $15 over 2023 to 2024, depriving Putin of $75m a day in export revenues.

Russia can get around technology sanctions but its systems are configured to western semiconductors. These chips cannot easily be replaced by Chinese suppliers, even if they were willing to risk US secondary sanctions, which most are not. The chips are bought at a stiff premium on the global black market and are unreliable.


Ukrainian troops have noticed that Russian Geran-2 drones keep spinning out of control. The Washington Post reports that laser-guided devices on Russia’s T-90M tanks have “mysteriously disappeared”, greatly reducing capability.

The industry ministry has been trying to develop analogues to replace chips from Texas Instruments, Aeroflex and Cypress but admitted in October that all three tenders had failed. Alexey Novoselov from the circuits company Milandr said Russia could not obtain the insulator technologies needed to make chips of 90 nanometers or below. It is the dark ages.

The US tightened the noose three weeks ago, imposing sanctions on Gazprombank and over 50 Russian banks linked to global transactions. This has greatly complicated Russia’s ability to trade energy and buy technology on the black market. It briefly crashed the ruble, now hovering at around 100 to the dollar.


Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian UnionPay cards. The Chinese press says exporters have pulled back from Russian e-commerce sites such as Yandez or Wildberries because payment fees through third-parties no longer cover thin profit margins. Some have been unable to extract their money from Russia and are facing large losses.

Few foresaw the sudden and total collapse of the Soviet regime, though all the signs of economic decay and imperial overreach were there to see by 1989.

Putin’s regime is not yet at this point but it would only take one more change in the Middle East to bring matters to a head. If the Saudis again decide to flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share – as many predict – oil will fall below $40 and Russia will spin out of economic control.

The Ukraine war may end in Riyadh.
 

The fall of Assad is a defeat for Russia — and no 'win' for the US​


The fall of the Baath state in Syria is a serious defeat for Russia (and a disaster for Iran). It would however be a grave mistake to assume that this by necessity makes it a success for the United States.

Moscow and Washington may indeed now face similar challenges in Syria.

Three issues led Russia to intervene in the Syrian civil war to save the Assad regime. First was a general desire to preserve a partner state — one of the very few remaining to Russia after the U.S. overthrow of the regimes in Iraq and Libya, which helped to prop up Moscow’s international influence. Second was a desire to retain Russia’s only naval and air bases in the Mediterranean.

Third was a deep Russian fear that an Islamist victory would lead to Syria becoming a base for terrorism against Russia and its partners in Central Asia. That anxiety was increased by the presence of numerous fighters from Chechnya and other Muslim regions of Russia in the ranks of the Islamist forces in Syria and Iraq.

Moscow’s hope of preserving a partner state has now irredeemably collapsed. As to the terrorist threat, we will have to see. Given the huge challenges it will face in rebuilding the Syrian state, it would seem insane for the new regime led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to sponsor international terrorism; and, as part of his general strategy of disowning his Al Qaeda past, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has promised not to do this.

There will, however, be a question mark over HTS’s ability to control its allies, and some of its own followers. In Afghanistan, the Taliban promised not to back international terrorism when they returned to power, and have apparently kept their word. The Afghanistan-based Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK), however, continues to do so; and from some mixture of weak control over parts of Afghanistan and unwillingness to engage in new conflict, the Taliban have not been able fully to prevent this.

This leaves the issue of the Russian naval base at Tartus and air base near Latakia. The Russian squadron based at Tartus has reportedly left the port. This could be either a definitive evacuation or a precautionary move to keep them out to sea until relations with the new regime are clarified. The Russian air base is said to be surrounded by IHT forces, but has not been attacked. It is reported that there has been a deal between Moscow and HTS to guarantee the security of the bases, but, if so, this arrangement may be purely temporary.

Given the extremely complicated and uncertain nature of its relations with all Syria’s neighbors, it might make good sense for the new regime in Damascus to allow the bases to remain (perhaps in return for Russian supplies of oil and food) in order to balance its diplomatic and economic options.

This issue however is intimately tied up with that of the new regime’s policy towards Syria’s ethno-religious minorities, which generally supported the Baath regime out of fear of Sunni Islamist oppression (a fear amply justified by the savage fate of their communities in Syria and Iraq which fell to ISIS).

Where Russia’s bases are situated along the Mediterranean coast lies the heartland of Syria’s Christian and Alawite minorities. The Assad dynasty came from the Alawites, a Shia sect, and, for the past 50 years, the Baath state in Syria has been to a great extent an Alawite one. Alawite militias played a crucial role on the government side in the civil war, and inflicted numerous atrocities on their opponents.

Al-Jolani has promised that there must be no revenge for this,that minority rights will be respected, and that there will be no imposition of severe Sunni Islamist law. Even if he is sincere about these pledges, however, his followers may feel differently.

An HTS-led regime in Damascus that wishes to reassure the Alawites and Christians might see an interest in allowing the Russian bases to remain. A regime fearful of minority revolt (and outside backing for such revolt), however, would likely see the Russian bases as potential support for such rebellion.

For Russia to retain its bases against the will of the new Syrian government, and with the support of local Alawite and Christian forces, would not only require the intervention of Russian ships and aircraft but also the deployment of significant numbers of ground forces. Given the war in Ukraine, it is highly unlikely that Russia has such forces to spare.


Moreover — as with the equally rapid collapse of the U.S. proxy Afghan state — the way in which Syrian state forces melted away in the face of the HTS-led insurgent forces will hardly encourage Russia to continue the fight in Syria.

In a different form, these issues also face U.S. policy in Syria. Will Washington attempt to keep its own bases in Syria (from which it has attacked both ISIS and Baath regime targets)? Will the new regime turn a blind eye to them, or attempt to force them out?

The greatest issue of all for the U.S. to consider is the fate of the Syrian Kurds. During the Syrian civil war, with massive help from the U.S. and the semi-independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq, Syrian Kurdish forces (the Democratic Union Party or PYD) occupied a huge swath of northeastern Syria, considerably beyond their core ethnic territory. The U.S. has several bases and logistics operations in the region.
 

The fall of Assad is a defeat for Russia — and no 'win' for the US Part II​


The one outside the country which appears to have been critical to IHT’s victory, and to have profited unquestionably from it, is Turkey and the Turkish government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The HTS offensive emerged from the Turkish-controlled area of northern Syria and could hardly have occurred without Turkish support. HTS’s successful use of drones strongly hints at Turkish aid.

Turkey has two core interests in Syria.The first is to establish a situation in which the three million Syrian refugees in Turkey who fled their homeland during the civil war can return home. That may now be achievable, if the new government in Damascus can establish basic peace and order and receive some international aid. Hundreds of refugees are reportedly already queuing up to cross back into Syria from Turkey.

The second Turkish interest is to reduce the power and territory of the Syrian Kurds, whom it has accused of being allied to PKK Kurdish rebels in Turkey. Simultaneously with the IHT offensive against the Baath regime, the Turkish-backed “Syrian National Army” rebels supported by Turkish airpower launched an offensive against the Kurdish PYD (officially designated by Turkey as “terrorists”), capturing the town of Manbij. This creates a situation in which proxies backed by a NATO member (though an increasingly estranged one) are attacking a US proxy, without the U.S. seemingly being able to do much about it.


If Turkey pushes the new regime in Damascus to join in the attack on the Kurdish-controlled territories in northeastern Syria, this will create dilemmas for Washington akin to those facing Russia in the west. Would the Trump administration abandon its Kurdish allies, in accordance with Trump’s statement that “This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved?” Or would the demands of “credibility” compel Washington to come to their aid, even at the potential cost of triggering a deep crisis with Turkey?

The Middle East resembles a billiard table, in which the movement of one ball is liable to send the others flying off in different directions and in turns bouncing off each other. The difference is that, unlike in billiards, even the most insightful expert cannot predict in which direction the balls will move; and no outside player has been able to control them.


On the whole, the wisest approach by far would seem to be that of the Chinese, who import much of their energy from the region while determinedly avoiding intervention and taking sides in its conflicts.

For, as a Chinese diplomat said to me many years ago, “Why would we want to get involved in that mess?”
 

Syria's new regime challenges Russia's military presence​


Russia will have to forget about military bases in Syria for a dozen or so years, according to a Russian military analyst. He believes that the new government, remembering the Russian bombings, will not agree to facilities on its territory. At the same time, there are many indications that it will want to establish relations with Russia.

The Russian army had been on Syrian territory for almost 10 years after intervening in the armed conflict and supporting dictator Bashar al-Assad. According to the agreement, the Russians were supposed to stay in the country until at least 2066. However, after the regime change, they began to withdraw.

Military analyst Kirill Mikhailov, in an analysis for the portal Mediazona, stated that Russia will have to completely withdraw from the Middle Eastern country.

"Considering Russia's rich history towards the former opposition—primarily bombings—it is unlikely that the new Syrian government will tolerate Russian bases on its territory," Mikhailov stated.

"The plan was buried"​

Shortly after the dictator was overthrown, there were rumors that Russia might bet on a plan to create the "People's Republic of Latakia" in the coastal territories of Syria. But considering the attitude of the local population in the region towards the Assad dynasty, Mikhailov assessed that "the plan was buried before it was invented."

He also added that the withdrawal of Russian troops is "the best of all bad decisions" by the Kremlin. According to him, Russia will have to forget about bases in Syria "probably for several decades."

He added that all indications are that Syria does not intend to hinder the evacuation as it does not want to engage in "open confrontation" with other countries. "The priority is, of course, the reconstruction of Syria," the analyst says.

What about Russian actions in Africa?​

At the same time, the change of authorities in Damascus is a blow to Russian operations in Africa. Bases in Syria were used as a logistics hub for supplying mercenaries operating on the largest continent.

"This significantly limits Russia's influence in the Middle East and also questions Russia's influence in Africa, where Russia still supports the same regime of General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, several juntas in the Sahel region in northwestern Africa, where various kinds of Russian mercenaries actually help them fight against Al-Qaeda and Tuareg separatists. Moreover, there are other projects such as the Central African Republic, Sudan," Mikhailov lists.

"Both logistical and political issues do not yet have a clear solution. This does not mean that tomorrow the entire architecture of Russian presence in Africa will collapse, but at least it has become a big question mark," the expert stated.
 

What Russia and Iran have lost in Syria​


Yesterday, we talked about why, among all the external powers involved in Syria, Turkey is probably the biggest immediate winner from the fall of Bashar Assad.

Now, we turn to the main losers. There are two, and they are big: Russia and Iran.

Both countries were huge backers of the Assad regime for decades, seeing Syria as the centerpiece of their Middle East policies. That’s why Tehran and Moscow intervened so heavily to support Assad around 2015 when his regime was on its back foot in Syria’s raging civil war.

But last week, as HTS-led militants met little resistance from Syrian government forces on the road to Damascus, both Russia and Iran decided to pull the plug. Now both are, for the time being, largely out of the picture in Syria.

Here’s what each country faces with the end of Assad.

Russia: military installations and clout

The Russian naval base at Tartus is Moscow’s only warm water port. For years, it enabled the Kremlin to project naval power into the Mediterranean and keep NATO on its toes in the region. The Russian airbase at Khmeimim, meanwhile, not only helped Moscow support military forces throughout the Middle East and Africa, but it also featured sophisticated air defenses that gave Russia a role in shaping the Israel-Syria standoff – whenever the IDF launched airstrikes against Iran-aligned targets in Syria, they had to at least be aware of Russia’s air defenses.

Now the fate of those facilities is unclear

Russia has reportedly evacuated some personnel, equipment, and weaponry, but there appears to be at least the possibility of some kind of agreement with HTS that permits Moscow to continue using the Tartus and Khmeimim facilities. As part of that, the Kremlin may seek to exploit its longstanding economic influence in Syria, as well as its potential to serve as a kind of counterbalance if the new government worries about excessive Turkish influence.

But the stakes are high. Russia will have a hard time replacing these facilities elsewhere in the region. US allies like Egypt or the Gulf states are unlikely to host Russian assets for fear of blowback from Washington. And while Russia has friends in Libya and Algeria, it would take years to construct facilities as sophisticated as what the Kremlin had in Syria.

Beyond the potential hard-power hits, Russia’s soft power has suffered too. Assad wasn’t the only embattled leader who leaned on Moscow for support in the face of severe pressure from the West. But Moscow’s inability, or unwillingness, to come to Assad’s aid in his final hours of need might raise alarm among the Maduros, Diaz Canels, Kims, and Lukashenkos of the world. The value of an alliance with Vladimir Putin just lost a few kopeks on the ruble.

Iran: a regional strategy in ruins

Whatever losses Russia has suffered, they pale next to the impact on Iran. Syria was the centerpiece of Iran’s once-powerful “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the United States. The country was critical for Tehran’s Hezbollah proxies next door in Lebanon who got Iranian weapons and rear support via Syria while also profiting from the country’s smuggling markets and illicit narcotics industries. In addition, the Assad regime reliably bought tens of billions of dollars worth of oil that Iran couldn’t sell elsewhere because of Western sanctions.

And lastly, Syria was an extra 70,000 square miles of friendly territory between Iran and its regional arch-enemies in Israel, important for a Tehran that is perpetually worried about the prospect of Israeli strikes on its nuclear program or other military installations.

True, the new Syrian government, run for now by the supposedly reformed Sunni jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, isn’t likely to be much friendlier to Israel. And the IDF has already destroyed much of the military hardware that Assad’s regime left behind, for fear of it falling into hostile hands. But HTS views Iran and Hezbollah as arch-enemies, making it harder for Tehran to picture an HTS-led Syria as a dependable deterrent against Israel.

Take all of that together with Israel’s decapitation and defanging of Hezbollah and Hamas – Iran’s two main proxies in the region – and Tehran’s regional clout is at its lowest ebb in years.


The Iranian government has tried to put a brave face on all of this, declaring earlier this week that it would “use all its regional and international capacities to stop the crimes of the Zionist regime against Syria.”

The trouble for Iran, like Russia, is that in one fell swoop, much of those regional and international capacities now lie in ruins.
 

Vladimir Putin makes desperate move to try and save Russian economy that's crashing in on itself​


In a strategic pivot, Russia is preparing to ease payment restrictions on its fossil fuel exports as economic sanctions start to impact Vladimir Putin's regime.

Putin has issued a directive to soften the rules that required payments through Gazprombank, a target of US sanctions designed to cripple the Russian economy. Previously, in retaliation to the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent harsh economic sanctions, Putin had demanded Ruble payments for energy through Gazprombank, allowing Russia to bypass restrictions on dealing with dollars and euros.

Under the new order, foreign importers will have the option to settle their bills through alternative banks or "another way agreed upon by the Russian supplier with the foreign buyer." Despite attempts to lessen reliance, Russia remains a crucial energy supplier to numerous European countries.

The Kremlin has previously used energy supplies as a geopolitical weapon, cutting off nations like Germany, but some EU members, including Slovakia and Hungary, still receive gas under old contracts, with Hungary heavily reliant on Russian energy, making up about 66% of its consumption. Maria Shagina, a sanctions expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, commented: "Gazprombank was the key financial channel for oil and gas payments with Europe."

"Blacklisting the bank has already caused the Russian ruble to tumble and it will affect gas payments with Hungary and Slovakia.", reports the Express US.

After the announcement of new sanctions, the Ruble took a nosedive, leading Moscow's central bank to halt trading. The Russian economy, already battered by heavy sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, hasn't yet forced Putin to back down in Ukraine, contrary to what many Western leaders had hoped.

Even as the economy limps along, it's strained supporting a war in a country that now devotes 6.3% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense, amidst soaring inflation and significant labor shortages. In a bid to rein in inflation, Russia's central bank hiked interest rates to 21% in October, the highest in 21 years.

This move, aimed at combating rising inflation, drew flak, particularly from defense manufacturing leaders who accused central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina of hindering the war effort.
 

US lawmakers demand intelligence assessment of risks if aid for Ukraine stops​


US lawmakers are calling for the heads of the country's key intelligence agencies to assess the security risks to the US if Washington halts its assistance to Kyiv and Russia wins the war against Ukraine. The report may include a classified annex, reports The Hill.

US lawmakers want the provision to be added to the National Defense Authorization Act for a vote in the House.

The lawmakers have tasked the Director of National Intelligence, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency to present a report evaluating the course of Russia's war against Ukraine in the context of potential consequences for the US in various scenarios.

The document has been titled "Assessment of likely course of war in Ukraine."

According to the US newspaper, the report's details are expected to include an assessment of the impact on Ukraine's military ability to defend against Russian aggression, depending on whether the US continues or halts its defense and economic support, and whether the US maintains or withdraws its authorization for the use of provided long-range missiles for strikes deep within Russian territory.

US lawmakers also want intelligence leaders to evaluate the impact of a potential Ukrainian defeat in the war on US national security interests, including the potential for further aggression by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

"The report is required to be submitted in unclassified form but can have a classified annex, and delivered to the House and Senate intelligence committees as well as the Armed Services, Foreign Affairs and Foreign Relations and Appropriations panels," The Hill states.

Lawmakers are urging the report to be submitted within 90 days after the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is signed.

Earlier, the elected US President Donald Trump stated that Ukraine probably should prepare for a reduction in military aid from the US once he assumes office.

Additionally, in early December, Minister of Finance of Ukraine Serhii Marchenko discussed how long Ukraine could withstand the war with Russia without US aid. The official noted that Ukraine is equipped to sustain the war at least through the first half of 2025, by which time it is essential to negotiate continued support from the US.
 

Russians suffer rising costs of Ukraine conflict​


In the small town of Dedovsk, just outside Moscow, pensioner Zinaida Kudriavtseva is struggling to pay the bills.

Russia has been gripped by a cycle of rising prices since it launched its military offensive on Ukraine almost three years ago.

Driven by an explosion in state spending on the conflict, inflation has surged, hitting hardest those who were already living close to the breadline.

"Everything is expensive," Kudriavtseva told AFP on a recent visit to the town, 30 kilometres (20 miles) outside the centre of the Russian capital.

She can no longer afford expensive medicine, meat or new clothes, and it's not easy to pay the rent on her pension of around 16,000 rubles ($150) a month.

"Fortunately, my daughters give me their clothes. Look at these shoes, they're a young person's shoes," she said, embarrassed.

Inflation is expected to hit nine percent by the end of the year, following increases of 7.4 percent in 2023 and 11.9 percent in 2022.

That economic turbulence came fresh off the back of the Covid pandemic, which hit Russia hard, and following years of falling living standards after the West imposed sanctions over Moscow's 2014 annexation of Crimea.

To combat inflation, the central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate to 21 percent, a level not seen since 2003.

For consumers and businesses, the cost of borrowing on the market has become prohibitively high.

Yet powered by the Kremlin's massive outlays on arms and soldiers -- which are set to ramp up by another third next year -- and aggravated by Western sanctions, prices in shops are still rising.

Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina has signalled she is considering raising rates yet again at a meeting next week, just ahead of the New Year holidays.

For Kudriavtseva, thinking about the future is too difficult.

"I live day to day," she said, also expressing fears over the conflict with Ukraine.

"Drones are flying here too," she said, referring to sporadic Ukrainian attacks targeting the Russian capital, a response to Russia's daily bombardment of Ukrainian cities.

"There's no guarantee that we won't face starvation," she said.

Her greatest wish? "That there will be no more war."

A similar message is painted on some walls around the city.

"No to War!" reads the graffiti.

Russians using such a phrase are liable to be prosecuted under strict military censorship laws, ushered in amid what the Kremlin portrays as an existential fight for survival against the West.

- 'I want peace' -

Returning from the supermarket, Viktor Markov ran through his purchases: bread, potatoes, chicken.

"Prices are going up every day. Apples cost 150 roubles ($1.40) and more. Coffee is 400 rubles," he said.

"I don't buy them at that price. I'm waiting for a discount."

Many people blame the conflict in Ukraine and the government's military expenditure for the price rises.

Defence spending is set to hit almost 13.5 trillion rubles ($125 billion) next year, more than six percent of Russia's GDP and representing around 40 percent of all state spending.

That follows a near 70 percent annual increase in military spending in 2024.

"What can we expect? The war goes on. And war requires resources," Markov said.

With a monthly pension of 22,000 rubles, he and his wife, Nina, 73, will not be able to afford traditional red caviar on the New Year table.

Prices for the salmon roe have doubled over the last year to 13,000 rubles a kilogramme.

Others on the streets of Dedovsk were worried about even more basic necessities.

Viktoria, a 30-year-old interpreter and foreign language teacher who lives in a wooden cottage, was angry at rising prices for nappies and baby food.

"I want peace to return," she said.

"Everything that's happening in the country is increasing people's anxiety."
 

Ukraine's intelligence kills Russian engineer who was modernizing missiles, source claims​


ditor's note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Mikhail Shatsky, a Russian expert involved in modernizing missiles launched against Ukraine, was shot dead near Moscow, a Defense Forces source told the Kyiv Independent on Dec. 12.

His death was likely orchestrated by Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), the source claimed.

Shatsky was deputy general designer and head of the software department at the Moscow-based Mars Design Bureau and reportedly oversaw the modernization of Kh-59 and Kh-69 missiles.

According to the source, Shatsky was also seen as the main proponent of incorporating AI technology into Russian drones, aircraft, and spacecraft.

The first to report on Shatsky's death was Ukrainian-Russian anti-Kremlin journalist Alexander Nevzorov, who wrote on his Telegram channel that HUR "eliminated a particularly dangerous criminal."

Nevzorov shared photos of a person resembling Shatsky lying dead in the snow. The man was reportedly killed in the Kuzminsky forest park near Kotelniki in Moscow Oblast.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify all the claims.

"Anyone who is involved in the development of the Russian military-industrial complex and support of Russian aggression in Ukraine one way or another is a legitimate target of the Defense Forces," the source said.
 

Trump opposes Ukraine launching US missiles inside Russia but hints he won't 'abandon' Kyiv​


U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he "very vehemently" disagrees with Ukraine using U.S.-made missiles to strike targets "hundreds of miles" inside Russia, the Time magazine reported on Dec. 12.

Members of Trump's inner circle previously criticized the outgoing Biden administration's decision to ease restrictions on long-range strikes, though this is the first time the president-elect has spoken against it publicly himself.

"I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that?" Trump told Time as the magazine named him Person of the Year.

"We’re just escalating this war and making it worse."

The U.S. president-elect has criticized the level of support the Biden administration provided to Ukraine and signaled Kyiv should brace for reduced assistance once he takes office in January.

While he boasted many times during his campaign that he would end the war within 24 hours, Trump admitted to Time that Russia's invasion is even more complex than the situation in the Middle East.

"The numbers of dead young soldiers lying on fields all over the place are staggering. It’s crazy what’s taking place."

When asked whether he would cut aid to Ukraine, Trump said instead he would use the U.S. aid as leverage to push the Kremlin to the negotiating table.

"I want to reach an agreement, and the only way you’re going to reach an agreement is not to abandon."

Trump met President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on Dec. 7 to discuss the ongoing war. Reuters wrote that while the two did not discuss specifics of any concrete peace plan, Trump called for an immediate ceasefire while Zelensky stressed the need for security guarantees.

Following his meeting with Zelensky, Trump said the Ukrainian leader is ready "to make a deal and stop the madness" and that Putin should do the same after incurring staggering losses in Ukraine.

"Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse," Trump wrote on Social Truth on Dec. 8.

Zelensky addressed Trump's post on his Telegram channel on Dec. 8, saying the war "cannot be ended simply with a piece of paper and a few signatures," warning that "a ceasefire without guarantees can be reignited at any moment, as Putin has already done in the past."

The Ukrainian president has signaled openness to a diplomatic end to the war as the Russian advance picked up pace in the east while Ukraine's resources grow thin.
 
I was a History and Econ major way back when. My speciality was the Middle East. I was and am no expert, but I did learn a lot. Over time I've read a lot of stuff. But to me this set of 40 maps is the best way to describe why the Middle East has become what it is. It's a very factual non-political look at it. It was put together about 10 years ago.

 

Unprecedented Russian winter crop failure sparks fears of soaring food prices​


Russia is experiencing an "unprecedented" failure rate of winter crops, sparking concerns that escalating food prices could trigger social instability. Russian consumers have already endured significant price hikes for basic food items throughout the summer and autumn.

Potato prices have skyrocketed by a staggering 78%, while costs for cabbage, beetroots, and butter have also surged between 27% and 31%. However, the situation appears set to worsen for beleaguered Russian consumers as farmers grapple with a record loss of winter crops.

The Russian analytical center ProZerno revealed that 38% of poor and unsprouted winter crops for the 2025 harvest, describing it as an "an unprecedentedly huge value" and stating that the situation had "never been this bad".

They noted that only 5.48 million hectares of winter crops are in good condition across Russia (excluding new regions), marking the smallest amount of healthy crops before winter in the past 23 years.

The Central Federal District of Russia is the hardest hit, with nearly two-thirds of crops either failing to sprout or in poor condition. In the Southern Federal District, almost half of the winter crops (44%) are deemed "poor."

The North Caucasus and the Volga region fare slightly better, with poor crop rates of 29.2% and 14.1% respectively.

The current grim forecast is attributed to the droughts that plagued the country during the summer and autumn months, according to ProZerno analysts.

Several regions of Russia experienced zero rainfall from April through October, leading to a state of emergency being declared in at least five areas.

This drought came on the heels of severe frosts in May, which decimated nearly 10% of the grain harvest and up to a quarter of the vegetable yield.

As per data from Russia's Statistical Agency Rosstat, food price inflation is currently at a two-year high of 10.2%.

This surge in food prices is rapidly depleting household budgets, especially those of retirees.

Tatyana, a 72 year old resident of the Russian city of Kirov, revealed to Bloomberg that she now allocates about two-thirds of her pension towards food expenses alone.
 

‘They said we were American spies’: Priests describe Russia’s crackdown on Evangelicals in occupied Ukraine​



Kyiv, Ukraine(CNN) —
Pastor Dmytro Bodyu said the Russians kept telling him they knew he was an American spy, specifically, a CIA agent paid by the US government to spread anti-Russian propaganda in occupied Ukraine.
“They said they knew for sure because all Protestant churches and Catholic churches are working with the American secret services, and all their pastors work for the US government, because the Protestant church is not a real church,” Bodyu, the founder of the evangelical Word of Life Church in Melitopol, told CNN.
Fifteen or so armed men, who said they were from the Russian police and FSB spy agency, stormed into Bodyu’s home early on March 19, 2022. They arrested him in front of his terrified wife and son and took him to a local police station where he said they shoved him into a small cell and threatened him with execution.
He was released eight days later, but the threats and harassment continued. Bodyu said he was given an ultimatum: to continue preaching, he’d have to cooperate. His sermons would be subject to censorship and observed by the authorities, and he would have to share personal and potentially compromising information about his parishioners with the Russians.
The pastor said that he refused and was eventually forced to leave the occupied southern Ukrainian city. His congregation was decimated and his church shut down as part of Russia’s brutal crackdown against Ukrainian religious groups that are not affiliated with the Russian Orthodox Church, also known as the Moscow Patriarchate.
 

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