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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (1 Viewer)


Does the generation of leaders after Putin really give a ****? I think like a lot of us they'd rather just scroll over hot chicks doing dances in basically no clothes.
It is in the Russian psyche. Believe it or not, there is a nostalgia for the old Soviet Union. The role Russians had as a Super Power. Heck, in fact, Stalin is revered again with a poll a few years back showing 70% of Russians believed Stalin had a positive role in their history.... also, a few years back, a separate poll showed 65% of Russians thought he was a cruel and inhumane tyrant. That dichotomy speaks to how Russians think. It is ingrained in their national identity because that IS their history. And Russian people respect power above all else. Do you really think the ruling elite of a country that thinks that way to not be consumed with power just as Putin is? The tendency is most likely that even when Putin is gone, there will not be some new leader that comes in and changes everything. However, if Putin were to keel over today, I think it would give the Russian regime that took over an excuse to agree to a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine as it was Putin's mess and not theirs.
You think people under 30 really care? I follow that there are Soviet bros in their 50s-60s but those under 30 have no memory of it and are more Western exposed. Especially after so many were thrown in this war
I could be wrong but I don't see the needle moving much. We are talking several centuries of the same thing.... power, oppression and suffering as part of the Russian psyche. I was shocked to learn about how the populace sees Stalin now. Even more so in reflection of visiting Moscow just a few years after communism fell when I think at that time there was more 'hope' but Putin has crushed that largely and replaced it with just a new version of the Czar's or Politburo.
 

Russian military and diplomats fleeing Damascus in a hurry​


The Russian military and diplomats began to leave the Syrian capital, Damascus, in an abrupt manner, and the first armed clashes broke out there.

Source: Defence Intelligence of Ukraine on Telegram

Quote: "The first armed unrest broke out in Damascus, prompting the Russian troops and diplomats to leave the Syrian capital in a hurry and urgent manner."

Details: According to Ukrainian intelligence, forces opposing the Russian-backed Assad administration are actively marching south of the country, with the first urban confrontations taking place in Hama, Homs and Suwayda.

It is known that the Russian contingent abandoned Hama and relocated to the Khmeimim Airbase. Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlev, chief of the Russian coordinating headquarters in Khmeimim, declared that the situation was out of the Assad regime's control.

In addition, the Russians fled a military base in the city of Khan Shaykhun, leaving behind a huge inventory of weapons and equipment.

Defence Intelligence of Ukraine also reports that on 1 December 2024, Russian planes started airstrikes in Khan Shaykhun. The attack was most likely intended to destroy Russian military assets that had been transferred to rebel troops.

In the midst of the frantic flight of Russian forces, news of the resignation of the Russian contingent's commander, General Kisel, began spreading in Arab-speaking channels.

Colonel Vadim Baikulov, who led a group of Russian special troops, was also summoned to Moscow. He must explain to the Kremlin why his subordinates were killed and military equipment captured in Aleppo.

Background:

・According to Reuters, Russia promised the Assad administration greater military support to oppose the rebels.

・On 2 December, Dmitry Peskov, Putin's press secretary, stated that the Kremlin will continue to support Bashar al-Assad.
 

Does the generation of leaders after Putin really give a ****? I think like a lot of us they'd rather just scroll over hot chicks doing dances in basically no clothes.
It is in the Russian psyche. Believe it or not, there is a nostalgia for the old Soviet Union. The role Russians had as a Super Power. Heck, in fact, Stalin is revered again with a poll a few years back showing 70% of Russians believed Stalin had a positive role in their history.... also, a few years back, a separate poll showed 65% of Russians thought he was a cruel and inhumane tyrant. That dichotomy speaks to how Russians think. It is ingrained in their national identity because that IS their history. And Russian people respect power above all else. Do you really think the ruling elite of a country that thinks that way to not be consumed with power just as Putin is? The tendency is most likely that even when Putin is gone, there will not be some new leader that comes in and changes everything. However, if Putin were to keel over today, I think it would give the Russian regime that took over an excuse to agree to a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine as it was Putin's mess and not theirs.
You think people under 30 really care? I follow that there are Soviet bros in their 50s-60s but those under 30 have no memory of it and are more Western exposed. Especially after so many were thrown in this war
I could be wrong but I don't see the needle moving much. We are talking several centuries of the same thing.... power, oppression and suffering as part of the Russian psyche. I was shocked to learn about how the populace sees Stalin now. Even more so in reflection of visiting Moscow just a few years after communism fell when I think at that time there was more 'hope' but Putin has crushed that largely and replaced it with just a new version of the Czar's or Politburo.

It's been 6 months since I looked into these things but then Russians age 18-25 were split 50-50 pro-Putin policies. As each demographic grew older the pro-Putin side grew stronger, considerably stronger. From 50-60 was 90%. 60 and up was 97%. There's a handful of likely replacements for Putin should he get suicided or something. Medvedev is the only one with moderately western leanings. Even he's turned hard liner in the past few months. The others are a mix of Putin or worse. Medvedev is down the list a bit for potential new great leader.
 
Interesting Twitter thread on state of Russian economy. I wonder if Ukraine can hold out long enough for the Russia economy to collapse.

Russia has bought time on it's economy from basically day 1 of the invasion and the clock has been ticking. It gets harder and harder to push the consequences down the road further and there is a time in the not too distant future that they will run out of options. 100%

Can Ukraine hold on until then? That is a great question. The only way that they can is that they continue to get the support they need (actually, continue is a bad choice of wording as they have never really got the support they needed as we have piecemealed them to death.... giving just enough to keep them in the fight but not enough to really make progress or just hold the line)
 
Interesting Twitter thread on state of Russian economy. I wonder if Ukraine can hold out long enough for the Russia economy to collapse.

That's a lot of Ukrainians methinks.

It's certainly coming either way, Putin is borrowing hard against Russia's future because he doesn't care, he's not going to be around in another 10 years anyhow, what's he care? Mother Russia hasn't exactly been too concerned about it's populace in the past regardless.
 
Interesting Twitter thread on state of Russian economy. I wonder if Ukraine can hold out long enough for the Russia economy to collapse.

That's a lot of Ukrainians methinks.

It's certainly coming either way, Putin is borrowing hard against Russia's future because he doesn't care, he's not going to be around in another 10 years anyhow, what's he care? Mother Russia hasn't exactly been too concerned about it's populace in the past regardless.
Mother Russia is a mean ol' female dog.
 
Interesting Twitter thread on state of Russian economy. I wonder if Ukraine can hold out long enough for the Russia economy to collapse.

It's a mess but it will hold up longer than Ukraine can. The fundamentals for Ukraine's military capacity in terms of industrial capacity, economic performance, and manpower availability are worse.
 
Not a pure Ukraine point but related since involves Russia. Looks like the rebels offensive in Syria continues to make big headways as news out this morning is they have already taken Hama the fourth largest city in Syria after taking Aleppo like a week ago. Also, appears that SAA (Bashar's forces) have no ability to stop them and if they take Homs (third largest city), which is like 40 miles south of Hama they will have cut off the Russian airbase and naval base from the rest of SAA held territory. The Russian Navy has already left Tartus. Khomeni airbase is defended by SAA with very few actual Russian soldiers (other than airforce folks) as anyone who had been there was shipped back to die in Ukraine so wonder if they will abandon it as well in near term. It would be a huge loss for Russia's ability to project power if those bases fell and the Rebels after years of fighting hate the Russians and doubt they will let Putin keep his bases. Russia being tied up in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah tied up with Isreal has left Bashar on an Island. He would have lost this war a decade ago if it weren't for those allies.

All that said the folks that make up the Rebels are not the nicest group (to say the least) so what is Bashar/Iran/Russia replacement really going to look like if it happens will be interesting .
 
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Not a pure Ukraine point but related since involves Russia. Looks like the rebels offensive in Syria continues to make big headways as news out this morning is they have already taken Hama the fourth largest city in Syria after taking Aleppo like a week ago. Also, appears that SAA (Bashar's forces) have no ability to stop them and if they take Homs (third largest city), which is like 40 miles south of Hama they will have cut off the Russian airbase and naval base from the rest of SAA held territory. The Russian Navy has already left Tartus. Khomeni airbase is defended by SAA with very few actual Russian soldiers (other than airforce folks) as anyone who had been there was shipped back to die in Ukraine so wonder if they will abandon it as well in near term. It would be a huge loss for Russia's ability to project power if those bases fell and the Rebels after years of fighting hate the Russians and doubt they will let Putin keep his bases. Russia being tied up in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah tied up with Isreal has left Bashar on an Island. He would have lost this war a decade ago if it weren't for those allies.

All that said the folks that make up the Rebels are not the nicest group (to say the least) so what is Bashar/Iran/Russia replacement really going to look like if it happens will be interesting to say the least.

Brad Taylor Brooks with a brief and pretty thorough explainer on this Middle Eastern snafubar.

Following the Kurdish bits on X and it sounds horrible. Claiming over 200k ethnically cleansed/genocided in less than a week. They are surrounded. They are who we support in the region. US forces are in the game.
 
Not a pure Ukraine point but related since involves Russia. Looks like the rebels offensive in Syria continues to make big headways as news out this morning is they have already taken Hama the fourth largest city in Syria after taking Aleppo like a week ago. Also, appears that SAA (Bashar's forces) have no ability to stop them and if they take Homs (third largest city), which is like 40 miles south of Hama they will have cut off the Russian airbase and naval base from the rest of SAA held territory. The Russian Navy has already left Tartus. Khomeni airbase is defended by SAA with very few actual Russian soldiers (other than airforce folks) as anyone who had been there was shipped back to die in Ukraine so wonder if they will abandon it as well in near term. It would be a huge loss for Russia's ability to project power if those bases fell and the Rebels after years of fighting hate the Russians and doubt they will let Putin keep his bases. Russia being tied up in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah tied up with Isreal has left Bashar on an Island. He would have lost this war a decade ago if it weren't for those allies.

All that said the folks that make up the Rebels are not the nicest group (to say the least) so what is Bashar/Iran/Russia replacement really going to look like if it happens will be interesting to say the least.

Brad Taylor Brooks with a brief and pretty thorough explainer on this Middle Eastern snafubar.

Following the Kurdish bits on X and it sounds horrible. Claiming over 200k ethnically cleansed/genocided in less than a week. They are surrounded. They are who we support in the region. US forces are in the game.
I follow all these events on Twitter and honestly not seen anything about 200k Kurds killed (would take that with a huge grain of salt). Turks are definitely going after them but there hasn’t been a ton of movement of SDF controlled areas other than initial pull back from Allepo. Manbij has had fighting but have not seen SDF give up ground.
 
Not a pure Ukraine point but related since involves Russia. Looks like the rebels offensive in Syria continues to make big headways as news out this morning is they have already taken Hama the fourth largest city in Syria after taking Aleppo like a week ago. Also, appears that SAA (Bashar's forces) have no ability to stop them and if they take Homs (third largest city), which is like 40 miles south of Hama they will have cut off the Russian airbase and naval base from the rest of SAA held territory. The Russian Navy has already left Tartus. Khomeni airbase is defended by SAA with very few actual Russian soldiers (other than airforce folks) as anyone who had been there was shipped back to die in Ukraine so wonder if they will abandon it as well in near term. It would be a huge loss for Russia's ability to project power if those bases fell and the Rebels after years of fighting hate the Russians and doubt they will let Putin keep his bases. Russia being tied up in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah tied up with Isreal has left Bashar on an Island. He would have lost this war a decade ago if it weren't for those allies.

All that said the folks that make up the Rebels are not the nicest group (to say the least) so what is Bashar/Iran/Russia replacement really going to look like if it happens will be interesting to say the least.

Brad Taylor Brooks with a brief and pretty thorough explainer on this Middle Eastern snafubar.

Following the Kurdish bits on X and it sounds horrible. Claiming over 200k ethnically cleansed/genocided in less than a week. They are surrounded. They are who we support in the region. US forces are in the game.
I follow all these events on Twitter and honestly not seen anything about 200k Kurds killed (would take that with a huge grain of salt). Turks are definitely going after them but there hasn’t been a ton of movement of SDF controlled areas other than initial pull back from Allepo. Manbij has had fighting but have not seen SDF give up ground.

This is where I saw the "claim". Grain of salt is why I called it a claim, but the situation seems horrific and under-reported. I'm pretty paranoid about the world situation devolving into WW3 and follow all the global conflicts via AI and the major ones on X. Could just be paranoia but I feel like most have their heads in the sand.
 
Not a pure Ukraine point but related since involves Russia. Looks like the rebels offensive in Syria continues to make big headways as news out this morning is they have already taken Hama the fourth largest city in Syria after taking Aleppo like a week ago. Also, appears that SAA (Bashar's forces) have no ability to stop them and if they take Homs (third largest city), which is like 40 miles south of Hama they will have cut off the Russian airbase and naval base from the rest of SAA held territory. The Russian Navy has already left Tartus. Khomeni airbase is defended by SAA with very few actual Russian soldiers (other than airforce folks) as anyone who had been there was shipped back to die in Ukraine so wonder if they will abandon it as well in near term. It would be a huge loss for Russia's ability to project power if those bases fell and the Rebels after years of fighting hate the Russians and doubt they will let Putin keep his bases. Russia being tied up in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah tied up with Isreal has left Bashar on an Island. He would have lost this war a decade ago if it weren't for those allies.

All that said the folks that make up the Rebels are not the nicest group (to say the least) so what is Bashar/Iran/Russia replacement really going to look like if it happens will be interesting to say the least.
Russia being tied up in Ukraine gutted the support it had previously been able to give to Assad. Hezbollah's military wing has been made practically defunct after a brilliant covert and military campaign by Israel which has left its leadership decimated (actually well beyond the 1 in 10 of the original meaning of the word decimated), it's manpower dead, injured or absolutely exhausted and wiped out all the fun toys Iran has sent it over the years. Essentially Russia and Hezbollah saved Assad when this all started.

The situation in Syria is a mess.... a soup of this group and that group. Some of the rebels are working somewhat together now but once they have an upper hand, you can bet they will start turning on each other. There is the possibility that Iran comes in greater numbers to directly prop up Assad which would greatly increase it's influence and obviously it's presence that Israel would deem to close to allow. That is the real danger here. If Iran does move in mass enough to move the needle for Assad then it is likely too much for the Israeli's to stomach. We know the Israeli's are not afraid of air operations in Syria or directly against Iran which in turn could provoke another feeble response from Iran with whatever crap they shoot over at Israel which then makes Israel have to say "look, we showed you this launching cruise missiles and drones and whatever else you got was a bad idea but now we really need to send that message"

The main group of rebels is essentially an al-Qaeda offshoot. Can we allow a group like that to seize power in Syria? Will Turkey allow that? Will Israel? There are no tears being shed for the possibility of Assad's regime being torn down but what replaces it is a fascinating question that could lead to scenarios we do not want to see and that could spill out over Syrian borders.

Bringing this back to Russia. It's ability to project power and influence regions has been demolished. It is, for the most part, now China's dog to call. It has crawled to Iran and N.Korea to help prop it up. From the military to economic aspect, Russia is on a ticking clock.... do we take advantage of that and give the Ukrainians what they need to stave the Orcs off or do we sacrifice Ukraine for a new form of Chamberlain appeasement offering?
 
Collapse is happening faster than a thought. Uprisings in the south in Daraa in south. SDF advancing as well in east as SAA abandons those areas.

Link to pretty good update thread - https://x.com/noelreports/status/1864942175076622678?s=46

ETA - this feels like a similar collapse as in Afghanistan. The Russian version of it.
At this point, unless Iran steps in significantly Assad should be packing his bags.

And at this point, maybe too late anyways.
 
Collapse is happening faster than a thought. Uprisings in the south in Daraa in south. SDF advancing as well in east as SAA abandons those areas.

Link to pretty good update thread - https://x.com/noelreports/status/1864942175076622678?s=46

ETA - this feels like a similar collapse as in Afghanistan. The Russian version of it.
At this point, unless Iran steps in significantly Assad should be packing his bags.

And at this point, maybe too late anyways.

Pretty sure Assad and his family went to Russia before this started and remains exiled there. If any country was going to step in significantly enough it would have been Russia, like it did in 2015. The paranoid of Putin part of me has a theory but I'll keep it to myself. :scared:
 
Collapse is happening faster than a thought. Uprisings in the south in Daraa in south. SDF advancing as well in east as SAA abandons those areas.

Link to pretty good update thread - https://x.com/noelreports/status/1864942175076622678?s=46

ETA - this feels like a similar collapse as in Afghanistan. The Russian version of it.
At this point, unless Iran steps in significantly Assad should be packing his bags.

And at this point, maybe too late anyways.

Pretty sure Assad and his family went to Russia before this started and remains exiled there. If any country was going to step in significantly enough it would have been Russia, like it did in 2015. The paranoid of Putin part of me has a theory but I'll keep it to myself. :scared:
Russia can't. It pretty much was a skeleton crew to begin with as the bulk was recalled to die in Ukraine. Their equipment was crap. I saw a video from a rebel group of the Aleppo airport (I think) and the Russian aircraft there were not air worthy... not by a long shot.

Iran is trying to get their Shia militias from Iraq there but have got only a couple hundred and they are not nearly as skilled as Hezbollah was (emphasis on was). Iran is unlikely to send more in as they would not be able to get them put at this point. It does seem like the Assad regime is over.

What replaces it is the big question. I believe the civil war will continue as the various rebel groups turn their focus on each other for power.
 
Collapse is happening faster than a thought. Uprisings in the south in Daraa in south. SDF advancing as well in east as SAA abandons those areas.

Link to pretty good update thread - https://x.com/noelreports/status/1864942175076622678?s=46

ETA - this feels like a similar collapse as in Afghanistan. The Russian version of it.
At this point, unless Iran steps in significantly Assad should be packing his bags.

And at this point, maybe too late anyways.

Pretty sure Assad and his family went to Russia before this started and remains exiled there. If any country was going to step in significantly enough it would have been Russia, like it did in 2015. The paranoid of Putin part of me has a theory but I'll keep it to myself. :scared:

All reports I have seen is Assad is still in Syria.

 
Collapse is happening faster than a thought. Uprisings in the south in Daraa in south. SDF advancing as well in east as SAA abandons those areas.

Link to pretty good update thread - https://x.com/noelreports/status/1864942175076622678?s=46

ETA - this feels like a similar collapse as in Afghanistan. The Russian version of it.
At this point, unless Iran steps in significantly Assad should be packing his bags.

And at this point, maybe too late anyways.

Pretty sure Assad and his family went to Russia before this started and remains exiled there. If any country was going to step in significantly enough it would have been Russia, like it did in 2015. The paranoid of Putin part of me has a theory but I'll keep it to myself. :scared:

All reports I have seen is Assad is still in Syria.


Well maybe he is, but on November 29th there were several reports he'd fled to Moscow.



I also just saw a post claiming he went to Moscow on the 29th with his family then returned to Syria. :shrug:

Also just read the Syrian army is destroying its own weapons as they retreat and Israel bombed Assad's chemical weapons facilities.

Meanwhile back in Ukraine it seems they're getting a lot drones all the way to Moscow.
 
US announces nearly $1 billion more in longer-term weapons support for Ukraine

The United States will provide nearly $1 billion more in longer-term weapons support to Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Saturday as the Biden administration rushes to spend all the congressionally approved money it has left to bolster Kyiv before President-elect Donald Trump takes office next month.

The latest package will include more drones and munitions for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, that the U.S. has provided. While these weapons are critically needed now, they will be funded through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which pays for longer-term systems to be put on contract.

The weapon systems purchased are often intended to support Ukraine’s future military capabilities, not make an immediate difference on the battlefield.
 
This is just a mess. Not sure what US should be doing. Don't like Assad but definitely hate Al-Qeda. Be nice to screw over russia and iran, but don't want an al-qeda state either. HTS backed by Turkey, so I'm betting they are their financiers which further complicates things with the kurd situation.
 
This is just a mess. Not sure what US should be doing. Don't like Assad but definitely hate Al-Qeda. Be nice to screw over russia and iran, but don't want an al-qeda state either. HTS backed by Turkey, so I'm betting they are their financiers which further complicates things with the kurd situation.
The Kurds will be screwed if Turkey controls both sides of the border.
 
This is just a mess. Not sure what US should be doing. Don't like Assad but definitely hate Al-Qeda. Be nice to screw over russia and iran, but don't want an al-qeda state either. HTS backed by Turkey, so I'm betting they are their financiers which further complicates things with the kurd situation.
The Kurds will be screwed if Turkey controls both sides of the border.
Pretty much there is no good outcome that I see on the horizon... perhaps the best is a continued civil war stalemate but that screws the people of Syria.
 
This is just a mess. Not sure what US should be doing. Don't like Assad but definitely hate Al-Qeda. Be nice to screw over russia and iran, but don't want an al-qeda state either. HTS backed by Turkey, so I'm betting they are their financiers which further complicates things with the kurd situation.

Hate Assad as much as you can hate. On the surface it's a mess but there's a reason nato is quiet about what member state Turkey is doing. They support it, we support it. Israel doesn't just support it, they are helping the rebels. Israel backing al Qaeda? lol crazyarse world. But HTS isn't al Qaeda. A decade ago? Yup. As the article explains there's been an evolution of this group in Turkey. Trying to find a way to get along in this world? Anti-American knuckleheads are saying this is evidence of the CIA supporting al Qaeda. Well it isn't al Qaeda as we know and hate them. It's HTS whose leader has posted a video praising his good friend Israel. Strange bedfellows indeed, but Assad is the worst monster in the region.


This is just a mess. Not sure what US should be doing. Don't like Assad but definitely hate Al-Qeda. Be nice to screw over russia and iran, but don't want an al-qeda state either. HTS backed by Turkey, so I'm betting they are their financiers which further complicates things with the kurd situation.
The Kurds will be screwed if Turkey controls both sides of the border.
yep

Maybe the endgame is a legit Kurdish state in northern Syria so Turkey can send all the trouble making Kurds home and for awhile a peacekeeping force is installed on the border. The Kurds deserve a place to exist, and I've read the US will defend them if it becomes necessary.
 
This is just a mess. Not sure what US should be doing. Don't like Assad but definitely hate Al-Qeda. Be nice to screw over russia and iran, but don't want an al-qeda state either. HTS backed by Turkey, so I'm betting they are their financiers which further complicates things with the kurd situation.

Hate Assad as much as you can hate. On the surface it's a mess but there's a reason nato is quiet about what member state Turkey is doing. They support it, we support it. Israel doesn't just support it, they are helping the rebels. Israel backing al Qaeda? lol crazyarse world. But HTS isn't al Qaeda. A decade ago? Yup. As the article explains there's been an evolution of this group in Turkey. Trying to find a way to get along in this world? Anti-American knuckleheads are saying this is evidence of the CIA supporting al Qaeda. Well it isn't al Qaeda as we know and hate them. It's HTS whose leader has posted a video praising his good friend Israel. Strange bedfellows indeed, but Assad is the worst monster in the region.


This is just a mess. Not sure what US should be doing. Don't like Assad but definitely hate Al-Qeda. Be nice to screw over russia and iran, but don't want an al-qeda state either. HTS backed by Turkey, so I'm betting they are their financiers which further complicates things with the kurd situation.
The Kurds will be screwed if Turkey controls both sides of the border.
yep

Maybe the endgame is a legit Kurdish state in northern Syria so Turkey can send all the trouble making Kurds home and for awhile a peacekeeping force is installed on the border. The Kurds deserve a place to exist, and I've read the US will defend them if it becomes necessary.
Turkey will NOT allow a Kurdish state along it's borders. They will invade before they allow that to happen.

The group may no longer be al-Qaeda but it use to be and though they broke with them, they didn't change their beliefs. It is pretty much the same worldview that al-Qaeda had.
 
This is just a mess. Not sure what US should be doing. Don't like Assad but definitely hate Al-Qeda. Be nice to screw over russia and iran, but don't want an al-qeda state either. HTS backed by Turkey, so I'm betting they are their financiers which further complicates things with the kurd situation.

Hate Assad as much as you can hate. On the surface it's a mess but there's a reason nato is quiet about what member state Turkey is doing. They support it, we support it. Israel doesn't just support it, they are helping the rebels. Israel backing al Qaeda? lol crazyarse world. But HTS isn't al Qaeda. A decade ago? Yup. As the article explains there's been an evolution of this group in Turkey. Trying to find a way to get along in this world? Anti-American knuckleheads are saying this is evidence of the CIA supporting al Qaeda. Well it isn't al Qaeda as we know and hate them. It's HTS whose leader has posted a video praising his good friend Israel. Strange bedfellows indeed, but Assad is the worst monster in the region.


This is just a mess. Not sure what US should be doing. Don't like Assad but definitely hate Al-Qeda. Be nice to screw over russia and iran, but don't want an al-qeda state either. HTS backed by Turkey, so I'm betting they are their financiers which further complicates things with the kurd situation.
The Kurds will be screwed if Turkey controls both sides of the border.
yep

Maybe the endgame is a legit Kurdish state in northern Syria so Turkey can send all the trouble making Kurds home and for awhile a peacekeeping force is installed on the border. The Kurds deserve a place to exist, and I've read the US will defend them if it becomes necessary.
Turkey will NOT allow a Kurdish state along it's borders. They will invade before they allow that to happen.

The group may no longer be al-Qaeda but it use to be and though they broke with them, they didn't change their beliefs. It is pretty much the same worldview that al-Qaeda had.

Maybe a peaceful autonomous region? KTS has said there will be no Sharia law enforced in regions they control should Syria fall. That's a massive change from al Qaeda. They also said they will be friends to Israel and tolerant to other religions. I don't trust anything I see 100%. Neither should anyone, imo, but I'll look for this stuff. Need to make a long drive tonight soooo, maybe tomorrow.
 
Assad regime is over.

Huge blow to Putin. He invested heavily into Syria and because of Ukraine and the weakened state of their military was unable to do anything to stop this other than evacuate. Losing it's valued naval and air base on the Med. This could, potentially, impact Putin's power grip in Russia. Russians are all about power and when you look weak is when you lose power.

Hezbollah goes from having it's leadership wiped off the planet and it's military capability nearly erased by Israel and now losing a valued patron. It will make it much harder for Iran to supply Hezbollah going forward.

Based on the multiple rebel groups and what we saw during the "Arab Spring" this is likely not over for the conflict in Syria.
 

Trump discusses war in Ukraine with Zelensky and Macron in Paris​


President-elect Trump held a trilateral meeting on Saturday in Paris with French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and discussed the war in Ukraine and ways to end it.

Why it matters: This is the first time Trump has met with Zelensky since the president-elect's victory in the election.

  • The meeting took place as Trump is getting ready to assume office in six weeks and start a diplomatic process to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Driving the news: Trump announced last week that he is appointing retired General Keith Kellogg as his envoy for Ukraine and Russia diplomacy.

  • Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak visited Washington earlier this week and met with Kellogg.
  • Yermak also met Vice President-elect JD Vance and Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz.
Behind the scenes: Macron has worked in recent days to convince Trump, who is visiting Paris to attend the reopening of the Notre-Dame cathedral, to hold the joint meeting with Zelensky, two sources said.

  • One source said that at the beginning Trump was reluctant to hold the meeting, but eventually agreed.
  • Another source familiar with the meeting said it lasted 45 minutes and was "good and fruitful." The source also said the final decision to hold the trilateral meeting was taken shortly before.
What they are saying: Zelensky said the meeting was "good and productive" and added they discussed the situation on the ground and "a just peace" and agreed to continue working together and keep in contact.

  • "President Trump is, as always, resolute...we all want this war to end as soon as possible and in a just way. Peace through strength is possible", Zelensky wrote on X.
 
Interesting Twitter thread on state of Russian economy. I wonder if Ukraine can hold out long enough for the Russia economy to collapse.

That's a lot of Ukrainians methinks.

It's certainly coming either way, Putin is borrowing hard against Russia's future because he doesn't care, he's not going to be around in another 10 years anyhow, what's he care? Mother Russia hasn't exactly been too concerned about it's populace in the past regardless.
Mother Russia is a mean ol' female dog.
The difference now is access to birth control.
 
Assad regime is over.

Huge blow to Putin. He invested heavily into Syria and because of Ukraine and the weakened state of their military was unable to do anything to stop this other than evacuate. Losing it's valued naval and air base on the Med. This could, potentially, impact Putin's power grip in Russia. Russians are all about power and when you look weak is when you lose power.

Hezbollah goes from having it's leadership wiped off the planet and it's military capability nearly erased by Israel and now losing a valued patron. It will make it much harder for Iran to supply Hezbollah going forward.

Based on the multiple rebel groups and what we saw during the "Arab Spring" this is likely not over for the conflict in Syria.
Wow. That happened quick. Shows how tenuous his grasp was and how smart the rebels were to seize the most opportune time to take down Assad. Is it confirmed that he's dead?
 

Welp, maybe @Chadstroma is right and I'm wrong. Sharia it is. Syria can't catch a break. I usually avoid X comments, but in the thread above there's plenty who saw the same stuff I saw.

In more bad news I saw video of Kurds throwing tomatoes at US troops leaving. A city of 100k has fallen to the other band of islamists backed by Turkey.

Here's that if you care.


Syrian christians are gonna suffer. Kurds are gonna suffer. Syria will descend into madness. Ugh. I'm tuning out today. Thank God for RedZone.
 

Welp, maybe @Chadstroma is right and I'm wrong. Sharia it is. Syria can't catch a break. I usually avoid X comments, but in the thread above there's plenty who saw the same stuff I saw.

In more bad news I saw video of Kurds throwing tomatoes at US troops leaving. A city of 100k has fallen to the other band of islamists backed by Turkey.

Here's that if you care.


Syrian christians are gonna suffer. Kurds are gonna suffer. Syria will descend into madness. Ugh. I'm tuning out today. Thank God for RedZone.
Assad was a brutal dictator and his defeat is a positive thing for the people of Syria. I hope that something good can come out for minorities in that country but fear it won’t. Below is an example of Christian celebrating. But who knows what Syria will look like even a week from now let alone a year or 5 years but what existed before was awful and at this stage I am happy for them.

 

Welp, maybe @Chadstroma is right and I'm wrong. Sharia it is. Syria can't catch a break. I usually avoid X comments, but in the thread above there's plenty who saw the same stuff I saw.

In more bad news I saw video of Kurds throwing tomatoes at US troops leaving. A city of 100k has fallen to the other band of islamists backed by Turkey.

Here's that if you care.


Syrian christians are gonna suffer. Kurds are gonna suffer. Syria will descend into madness. Ugh. I'm tuning out today. Thank God for RedZone.
Assad was a brutal dictator and his defeat is a positive thing for the people of Syria. I hope that something good can come out for minorities in that country but fear it won’t. Below is an example of Christian celebrating. But who knows what Syria will look like even a week from now let alone a year or 5 years but what existed before was awful and at this stage I am happy for them.

thanks for the link. i needed it. :)
 

Welp, maybe @Chadstroma is right and I'm wrong. Sharia it is. Syria can't catch a break. I usually avoid X comments, but in the thread above there's plenty who saw the same stuff I saw.

In more bad news I saw video of Kurds throwing tomatoes at US troops leaving. A city of 100k has fallen to the other band of islamists backed by Turkey.

Here's that if you care.


Syrian christians are gonna suffer. Kurds are gonna suffer. Syria will descend into madness. Ugh. I'm tuning out today. Thank God for RedZone.
Assad was a brutal dictator and his defeat is a positive thing for the people of Syria. I hope that something good can come out for minorities in that country but fear it won’t. Below is an example of Christian celebrating. But who knows what Syria will look like even a week from now let alone a year or 5 years but what existed before was awful and at this stage I am happy for them.

I fear it was probably a lateral move in terms of human rights, but in the short term at least Russia and Iran losing a key ally is a net positive for us.
 

Welp, maybe @Chadstroma is right and I'm wrong. Sharia it is. Syria can't catch a break. I usually avoid X comments, but in the thread above there's plenty who saw the same stuff I saw.

In more bad news I saw video of Kurds throwing tomatoes at US troops leaving. A city of 100k has fallen to the other band of islamists backed by Turkey.

Here's that if you care.


Syrian christians are gonna suffer. Kurds are gonna suffer. Syria will descend into madness. Ugh. I'm tuning out today. Thank God for RedZone.
Assad was a brutal dictator and his defeat is a positive thing for the people of Syria. I hope that something good can come out for minorities in that country but fear it won’t. Below is an example of Christian celebrating. But who knows what Syria will look like even a week from now let alone a year or 5 years but what existed before was awful and at this stage I am happy for them.

I fear it was probably a lateral move in terms of human rights, but in the short term at least Russia and Iran losing a key ally is a net positive for us.
Let’s not forget how bad Assad was - Chemical weapons attacks on his own country, mass crematoriums to hide murders of opposition, barrel bombing civilians, purposely attacking hospitals and a political prison system that from recent videos held small children are a few examples. This is a good thing for human rights and hopefully the country can take this opportunity and make itself a better place.
 
Assad regime is over.

Huge blow to Putin. He invested heavily into Syria and because of Ukraine and the weakened state of their military was unable to do anything to stop this other than evacuate. Losing it's valued naval and air base on the Med. This could, potentially, impact Putin's power grip in Russia. Russians are all about power and when you look weak is when you lose power.

Hezbollah goes from having it's leadership wiped off the planet and it's military capability nearly erased by Israel and now losing a valued patron. It will make it much harder for Iran to supply Hezbollah going forward.

Based on the multiple rebel groups and what we saw during the "Arab Spring" this is likely not over for the conflict in Syria.
Wow. That happened quick. Shows how tenuous his grasp was and how smart the rebels were to seize the most opportune time to take down Assad. Is it confirmed that he's dead?
No confirmation. I am very skeptical of his plane being shot down as well. I can't imagine the rebels having much in the way of anything that could shoot a plane down and on top of that, it would be a lucky 'wow, you mean Assad was on that one plane we shot down" thing as the chances of them knowing where he was would be extremely low as well. Not much reporting of it from more established news reporting agencies.
 
Your major rebel groups in Syria:

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): This group, an offshoot of the Nusra Front (a former al-Qaeda affiliate), is primarily backed by Turkey. HTS has established a significant presence in Syria's northern Idlib province


Syrian National Army (SNA): An umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias, the SNA has been involved in various operations against both the Syrian government and Kurdish forces


Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Predominantly Kurdish and backed by the United States, the SDF controls much of northeastern Syria. They have been key in the fight against ISIS


Various Local Factions: In southern regions like Sweida and Daraa, local rebel groups have also been active. These areas have seen periodic anti-government protests and clashes
 
Assad gone is not a bad thing.

What happens now is a big question mark. My guess is further civil war. But if not, then what replaces Assad?

The one thing we do know is that whatever does replace Assad will not be friendly to Russia, Iran or Hezbollah which is a win.

Short of the Kurds somehow gaining more power, it is almost assured that Turkey will have the most influence in Syria which is more of a good thing than bad (being a NATO country and an ally if not a wishy washy one) for us but bad for the Kurds.

This does impact Russia internally. It is a huge humiliation for Putin.
 

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