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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)

Chadstroma said:
themeistersinger said:
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That is one thing about the 'cost' of assistance. Not an insignificant amount of it are things at the end or nearing the end of their service life. For example, M113's have long been pushed out of front line service by the Bradley IFV which in tern is on it's way out with the OMFV program. We actually wanted to have replaced both by 2018 but that didn't happen. I am sure it makes sense accounting wise to talley that kind of stuff up but is it a true cost?
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Some of the stuff was obsolete - I think there was an article posted a while ago about trucks we sent them that were no longer used by us. In fact, many of them had been sunk off the coast of New Jersey to form an artificial reef before the Ukraine war broke out.

A lot of the stuff isn't obsolete though, especially the ammunition and anti-tank weapons. Our stocks of that stuff are getting very low, too low for comfort really (especially since saving money on that stuff has long been a practice in Washington under both parties).

That depletion probably won't matter much unless China decides to invade Taiwan. Russia has obviously become much less threatening in terms of any conventional attack, and China is really the only other hostile country that could stand a chance against our military.

Although we can now add Khartoum to the list of places with interesting times.
 
themeistersinger said:
Chadstroma said:
themeistersinger said:
Click to expand...
That is one thing about the 'cost' of assistance. Not an insignificant amount of it are things at the end or nearing the end of their service life. For example, M113's have long been pushed out of front line service by the Bradley IFV which in tern is on it's way out with the OMFV program. We actually wanted to have replaced both by 2018 but that didn't happen. I am sure it makes sense accounting wise to talley that kind of stuff up but is it a true cost?
Click to expand...
Some of the stuff was obsolete - I think there was an article posted a while ago about trucks we sent them that were no longer used by us. In fact, many of them had been sunk off the coast of New Jersey to form an artificial reef before the Ukraine war broke out.

A lot of the stuff isn't obsolete though, especially the ammunition and anti-tank weapons. Our stocks of that stuff are getting very low, too low for comfort really (especially since saving money on that stuff has long been a practice in Washington under both parties).

That depletion probably won't matter much unless China decides to invade Taiwan. Russia has obviously become much less threatening in terms of any conventional attack, and China is really the only other hostile country that could stand a chance against our military.

Although we can now add Khartoum to the list of places with interesting times.
Click to expand...
Yes, the MANPAD and anti-tank weapon systems highlight that. Honestly though.... it is GOOD that we are seeing the deficiencies in stockpile/logistics. It is a challenge but it is better to understand that challenge now and address it.

I have been saying for years that we tend to have a short sighted view on weapon procurement. I remember people losing their minds a decade or so ago about an announced large dollar purchase of submarines when we were right in the middle of fighting two guerrilla warefare wars. It was so moronic for people to think that way as there is such a long lead time for development and production of weapons now. This isn't WWII where you can turn a switch and then in no time have a bunch of Liberty Ships being launched every day.

I think this is a blessing in disguise. Plus, our stockpiles likely needed to be refreshed and hopefully updated anyways.
 

I mean, there are not many people that I would be happy to hear they have cancer.... ok, I can only think of one right now at it Putin.... I really hope this is true and not just wishful thinking. However, what happens after he dies?

There is a good risk that there will be a power struggle that will turn hot. I do think though that pretty much any victor of that power struggle would quickly end the war in Ukraine and get out blaming the horrible mistake on Putin even if they happen to have been close to him. Otherwise, they would put their own regime at risk.
 
themeistersinger said:
Sounds like some people are getting way out over their skis on this.

foreignpolicy.com

The West Is Preparing for Russia’s Disintegration

Amid war in Ukraine, some strategists are setting their eyes on the “decolonization” of Russia itself.
foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com
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If Putin dies with them involved in Ukraine there is a good chance the Russian Federation does dissolve. I do not expect an orderly transfer of power if he dies and a good chance of there being violence. I think many 'regions' within the Federation would be looking to breakaway with the chance to do so. Maybe even more so now that there are reports that the mobilization efforts have focused on ethnic minorities and away from the heart of Russia like Moscow. That and the economic hardships under the sanctions... all you need is Putin to keel over and chaos.
 
themeistersinger said:
www.csis.org

Rebuilding U.S. Inventories: Six Critical Systems

Are U.S. weapons inventories getting too low because of transfers to Ukraine? Although most inventories are acceptable, some key munitions will take many years to replace. Often, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition.
www.csis.org www.csis.org
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my concern is that some of these are the exact systems that taiwan should be getting/building up to counter china
 
themeistersinger said:
www.19fortyfive.com

Artillery Paradox: How Ukraine Does More Damage With Fewer Rounds Than Russia

Russia has enjoyed a huge advantage in artillery since the start of the invasion. But nonetheless, Ukraine has been more lethal.
www.19fortyfive.com www.19fortyfive.com
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If I was a Russian soldier, I would be shaking in my boots afraid of Ukraine's drone-guided artillery. Simply deadly and extremely accurate.

Earlier in the war I saw a video of some Russians dug in near the side of a bridge. I thought they were well protected where they sat. Seconds later a Ukrainian artillery round landed right in their pocket.
 
Rumors that an argument between Russian and Wagner troops on why they have sucked so bad turned into a shootout killing an unknown number on both sides. If true.... that is very good news and continues to highlight the potential for the tensions between Wagner and the regular Russian army to flare up. We have seen some issues for a fact between them leading up to now and how the Russian tactics in Bakhmut has turned into marching Wagner troops straight into defenses as cannon fodder and then having Russian troops try to flank around. If I was in Wagner, convict or not, I would probably hate the Russian army more than I did the Ukrainians.
 
According to the Wall Street Journal, Moscow has likely lost around six-to-eight percent of its tactical combat aircraft, including roughly fifteen percent of its prewar platforms like multirole and ground-attack airframes and half of it's tanks.
 
On top of the Russian Navy possibly scrapping their lone aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, it looks like they may scrap their flagship battlecruiser Pyotr Velikiy as well.
 
1/ The Commander of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, has given an interesting interview to Interfax-Ukraine. The full interview is worth reading, but his comments about the fighting in Bakhmut are particularly noteworthy:
Click to expand...
 
Chadstroma said:
themeistersinger said:

Russia Finally Sends T-14 Armata Tanks to Ukraine « Lawrence Person's BattleSwarm Blog

www.battleswarmblog.com
Click to expand...
Basically being used as artillery right now.

If you want to laugh... that linked article is good for a couple of good ones.

The Russian military technology/industry capability is pathetic. Every time that Western equipment has been put up against it in the modern era- it hasn't been even close.
Click to expand...

It definitely is.

  • “An auto loader famous for jamming that now cannot be accessed and cleared when it does jam, is somehow heavier and slower than the tank it has replaced, and comes combined together in a package so expensive the company that made it immediately went bankrupt. The country that bought it cannot afford it and it has about as much export potential as English whiskey.”
  • “For a while, every idiot with even the vaguest sense of military interest was banging on about this tank as if Stalin had come back to life and had personally forged the hull from his own ball sack. And that all tanks across every nation in the world had just been rendered obsolete.”
 
www.military.com

Russian Military Still a Formidable Threat Despite Damaged Ground Forces, Defense Officials Say

Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command, pointed to Russia's submarine force, which he said has been exceptionally active despite that country's struggles in Ukraine.
www.military.com www.military.com

Russia's ground forces have been damaged by the war in Ukraine, but many other elements of its military have remained unscathed, the general in charge of U.S. forces in Europe said Wednesday.

In particular, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command, pointed to Russia's submarine force, which he said has been exceptionally active in the Atlantic Ocean in recent years despite that country's struggles in Ukraine.

"Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict. One of those forces is their undersea forces," Cavoli said at a House Armed Services Committee hearing in response to a question from Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn.
Click to expand...

Cavoli declined to discuss many specifics about the submarines outside of a classified briefing to House members, but he did give a glimpse of the operations during the public hearing.

"Russians are more active than we've seen them in years, and their patrols into the Atlantic and throughout the Atlantic are at a high level, most of the time at a higher level than we've seen in years," he told lawmakers. "And this is, as you pointed out, despite all of the efforts that they're undertaking inside Ukraine."

The Russian military has suffered staggering losses in the war in Ukraine, which Moscow started more than a year ago when it invaded its neighbor.

Estimates vary on the exact number of Russian troops killed or injured in the war -- recently leaked Pentagon intelligence reportedly places the number of Russian casualties between 189,500 and 223,000 -- but the losses have been high enough that Moscow has called up conscripts and taken steps to make draft dodging harder.

Despite the Russian losses and the fact that its military has so far failed to achieve any major objectives in the war, U.S. officials continue to warn that Russia presents an "acute" threat to American and European security.

Cavoli echoed that warning Wednesday, adding that while the Ukrainians are in a good position for an expected spring counteroffensive, Russia remains a formidable foe.

"The Russian ground force has been degenerated somewhat by this conflict, although it is bigger today than it was at the beginning of the conflict," he said. "The air force has lost very little; they've lost 80 planes. They have another 1,000 fighters and fighter bombers. The navy has lost one ship."

Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, who was testifying alongside Cavoli, said it was "very unlikely" Russia could seize all of Ukraine.

But she also warned against underestimating the strength of the Russian military at this point in the war.

"Its conventional forces, ground forces that are in Ukraine, have been devastated," Wallander said. "Russia still retains strategic capabilities, an air force, cyber, underwater. ... We should not make the mistake of underestimating Russia's military capabilities because the stakes of getting it wrong are too high."
Click to expand...
 
fatness said:
Chadstroma said:
themeistersinger said:

Russia Finally Sends T-14 Armata Tanks to Ukraine « Lawrence Person's BattleSwarm Blog

www.battleswarmblog.com
Click to expand...
Basically being used as artillery right now.

If you want to laugh... that linked article is good for a couple of good ones.

The Russian military technology/industry capability is pathetic. Every time that Western equipment has been put up against it in the modern era- it hasn't been even close.
Click to expand...

It definitely is.

  • “An auto loader famous for jamming that now cannot be accessed and cleared when it does jam, is somehow heavier and slower than the tank it has replaced, and comes combined together in a package so expensive the company that made it immediately went bankrupt. The country that bought it cannot afford it and it has about as much export potential as English whiskey.”
  • “For a while, every idiot with even the vaguest sense of military interest was banging on about this tank as if Stalin had come back to life and had personally forged the hull from his own ball sack. And that all tanks across every nation in the world had just been rendered obsolete.”
Click to expand...
“It does away with all the unnecessary ERA systems of the T90, which cannot protect the tank against missiles that were invented in the 80s, and instead replaces them with an active protection system that can almost defend the tank against missiles that were invented in the 90s.”

My two favorites.....

China reportedly found out that none of the tank’s systems actually worked. “The soft kill defense systems were simply smoke screens, and the hard kill systems designed specifically to stop the Javelin and the TOW missile could not detect if either of these systems had been fired at the tank, and relied entirely on the crew being able to notice a missile traveling at the speed of sound flying towards them.”

“Russia is not an equal to the United States and NATO, it’s an equal to North Korea, both technologically backwards nations.”
 
Don't Toews Me said:
www.military.com

Russian Military Still a Formidable Threat Despite Damaged Ground Forces, Defense Officials Say

Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command, pointed to Russia's submarine force, which he said has been exceptionally active despite that country's struggles in Ukraine.
www.military.com www.military.com

Russia's ground forces have been damaged by the war in Ukraine, but many other elements of its military have remained unscathed, the general in charge of U.S. forces in Europe said Wednesday.

In particular, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command, pointed to Russia's submarine force, which he said has been exceptionally active in the Atlantic Ocean in recent years despite that country's struggles in Ukraine.

"Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict. One of those forces is their undersea forces," Cavoli said at a House Armed Services Committee hearing in response to a question from Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn.
Click to expand...

Cavoli declined to discuss many specifics about the submarines outside of a classified briefing to House members, but he did give a glimpse of the operations during the public hearing.

"Russians are more active than we've seen them in years, and their patrols into the Atlantic and throughout the Atlantic are at a high level, most of the time at a higher level than we've seen in years," he told lawmakers. "And this is, as you pointed out, despite all of the efforts that they're undertaking inside Ukraine."

The Russian military has suffered staggering losses in the war in Ukraine, which Moscow started more than a year ago when it invaded its neighbor.

Estimates vary on the exact number of Russian troops killed or injured in the war -- recently leaked Pentagon intelligence reportedly places the number of Russian casualties between 189,500 and 223,000 -- but the losses have been high enough that Moscow has called up conscripts and taken steps to make draft dodging harder.

Despite the Russian losses and the fact that its military has so far failed to achieve any major objectives in the war, U.S. officials continue to warn that Russia presents an "acute" threat to American and European security.

Cavoli echoed that warning Wednesday, adding that while the Ukrainians are in a good position for an expected spring counteroffensive, Russia remains a formidable foe.

"The Russian ground force has been degenerated somewhat by this conflict, although it is bigger today than it was at the beginning of the conflict," he said. "The air force has lost very little; they've lost 80 planes. They have another 1,000 fighters and fighter bombers. The navy has lost one ship."

Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, who was testifying alongside Cavoli, said it was "very unlikely" Russia could seize all of Ukraine.

But she also warned against underestimating the strength of the Russian military at this point in the war.

"Its conventional forces, ground forces that are in Ukraine, have been devastated," Wallander said. "Russia still retains strategic capabilities, an air force, cyber, underwater. ... We should not make the mistake of underestimating Russia's military capabilities because the stakes of getting it wrong are too high."
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
We can't ignore them but the entire Russian military is being degraded with this. Beyond the Army which is being mauled, even the Navy and certainly the Air Force are being degraded simply due to manpower and financial drain. Of course, the nukes are the thing that makes them scary regardless of how poor their conventional forces are degraded to and exposed as being far less capable than we thought they were. Russian military hardware from their tanks to aircraft is being exposed as crap. Besides natural resources and food- military equipment was their biggest export and that is done and over with. No one is going to be buying that crap anymore. China will gain a large portion of the previous Russian export business there as China has cheated, stolen and borrowed enough from Russia, our allies and of course US where their equipment may actually peer to the US.

The sub force has been exposed in the past as being death traps and I don't think they have improved since the Soviet days. Are they dangerous still? Sure. Is the Russian Navy hurting from Ukraine invasion absolutely and I am not talking about them adding to their submarine fleet with the Moskva and the landing ship.
 
Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy harshly responded to a journalist from the Kremlin propaganda dump RIA.

The journalist said he knew McCarthy did not support "unlimited and uncontrolled supplies of weaponry and aid to Ukraine," and asked if U.S. policy on sending aid to Kyiv will change in the near future.

"I support aid for Ukraine. I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine. I do not support your killing of children either," McCarthy said.
Click to expand...
 
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