*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (13 Viewers)

[The Z Machine]

Ukrainians are also applying new technological know-how. Drones equipped with heat sensors are the latest weapons. These seek out Russian mine positions by looking for heat signatures in the 30-60 minutes before sunset, when the metal mines have heated up just enough.

I love this. I do wonder if ground penetrating radar or magnetic imaging or other tech can be made autonomous and airborne to map out probable mines and traps.

 

[themeistersinger]

France to Become Second Nation to Send Ukraine Cruise Missiles

Macron’s move, which follows a British decision, increases pressure on Washington to provide Kyiv with long-range capabilities.

www.wsj.com

The move puts additional pressure on the United States and other allies, such as Germany, to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons that could hit command centers, weapons depots and other military infrastructure in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.
The Biden administration is still deliberating whether to transfer to Ukraine the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has a range of some 190 miles, weighing the risks of a possible Russian reaction. Germany, so far, has rejected a Ukrainian request for its Taurus cruise missiles.

The French Scalp missiles, manufactured by the MBDA conglomerate, are nearly identical to the Storm Shadow cruise missiles that the U.K. started providing to Ukraine in May. Their range of more than 300 miles is significantly longer than that of any weapon supplied to Ukraine by Washington so far.
Russian air defenses have proved unable to intercept most of the Storm Shadows. Kyiv in recent weeks successfully struck several valuable military targets that Russia had moved outside the range of U.S.-provided weapons—and had, until now, considered to be safe. They included one of the largest Russian weapons depots in southern Ukraine and several command centers. Ukraine also used the Storm Shadows to hit the main road bridge that links Russian-occupied Crimea with mainland Ukraine, disabling it for more than a week.

Unlike ATACMS, launched by the Himars vehicles that Ukraine already operates to fire shorter-range missiles, the Scalp and Storm Shadow missiles have to be fired from aircraft. That is a much riskier venture considering that Ukraine’s Soviet-era jets are relatively easy prey to Russian air defenses and more modern Russian fighter jets.

Many Western officials are growing concerned that Russia might regain the initiative in the battlefield and launch an offensive thrust of its own if Ukraine doesn’t show significant gains this summer.
There is a growing realization in many NATO capitals that rejecting or slow-rolling Kyiv’s requests for tanks, fighting vehicles and air defenses a year ago has turned out to be a strategic mistake, diplomats say. The debate at the NATO summit is focusing on what could be done in the coming weeks and months to accelerate the strengthening of Ukraine’s military capabilities.

"There is a growing realization in many NATO capitals that rejecting or slow-rolling Kyiv’s requests for tanks, fighting vehicles and air defenses a year ago has turned out to be a strategic mistake, diplomats say. The debate at the NATO summit is focusing on what could be done in the coming weeks and months to accelerate the strengthening of Ukraine’s military capabilities."

Ya don't say.

 

[Chadstroma]

This is what I was saying above, that Ukraine is probably pretty happy to just kill Russians indefinitely as long as they can do it disproportionately, with a large enough ratio:

So there are six ways Russia might turn the war around. All are unlikely, and three rely on foreign behavior – over which Putin has little control – dramatically changing.

My own sense is that Ukraine will win the war in time by simply outlasting the Russians. That is, this war is more like an insurgency. The insurgent wins by not losing, by waiting for the aggressor to tire. At some point, the exhausted, frustrated aggressor finds it cheaper to just throw in the towel and go home. This is how the Vietnamese beat the US in the 1970s, and how the Afghan mujahidin beat the Red Army in the 1980s.

The current Ukrainian offensive may not succeed dramatically – the critics may be right – but that misses the point. Ukraine is committed; it will fight on and on. Crucially, Russia needs to do more than just hang on against Ukraine. It needs to win, decisively, to force Ukraine to bargain, to end this thing and stop the bleeding. Ukraine, by contrast, just needs to endure, which it has shown it can and will.

Ukrainians largely see this as an existential battle for them with a crap ton of history (not good) between them and Russia. They are committed to it. They are willing to suffer the pain of loss to fight on.

The average Russian on the street is not nearly as committed. Supposed polls show Russian support for the war and government but then during the mutiny it sure looked like your average Russian was neutral at best and some celebrating the change of power with the same for security forces essentially waiving Wagner troops right past them.

As long as the Ukrainians are supplied then they will fight. Russia has no ability to launch any serious offenses. They can't win the war in battle. On the other side, Ukraine is threatening to break their lines. If they do and cut the land bridge to Crimea, it is basically game over and the Ukrainians win.

The longer this goes on with it's military and economy degradation- the more that Russia becomes a glorified North Korea that is firmly within the Chinese sphere of influence and command.

Russian mentality is to always support whoever is the strongest. That will be Putin till he isn't. The temidness seen during the "mutiny" was people waiting to see who was stronger.

Maybe I'm over simplifying things, but it's based on experience and current statements from some Russians.

But perception of who is stronger will not survive losing a war with increasing amounts of Russians KIA. Russian strength isn't just about who is in control of the military and intelligence but it is much more fragile than that. It is a brand or image. That is why Putin went out of his way to show him riding horseback shirtless and doing Judo.

Russians are a broken spirited people. Their history for the last several hundred years is been one of brutal oppressive regimes from the Czars to the Soviets and then Putin... and Putin is the 'nicest' of that line of power. It is impossible to 'read' the Russian people through polls and what not as no one wants to say what they really think. I do think that we got a glimpse of what people really think during the mutiny.... there was no opposition to the mutiny. There was some popular support in the streets and a whole lot of testing to see which way the winds were blowing.

 

[Chadstroma]

France to Become Second Nation to Send Ukraine Cruise Missiles

Macron’s move, which follows a British decision, increases pressure on Washington to provide Kyiv with long-range capabilities.

www.wsj.com

The move puts additional pressure on the United States and other allies, such as Germany, to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons that could hit command centers, weapons depots and other military infrastructure in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.
The Biden administration is still deliberating whether to transfer to Ukraine the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has a range of some 190 miles, weighing the risks of a possible Russian reaction. Germany, so far, has rejected a Ukrainian request for its Taurus cruise missiles.

The French Scalp missiles, manufactured by the MBDA conglomerate, are nearly identical to the Storm Shadow cruise missiles that the U.K. started providing to Ukraine in May. Their range of more than 300 miles is significantly longer than that of any weapon supplied to Ukraine by Washington so far.
Russian air defenses have proved unable to intercept most of the Storm Shadows. Kyiv in recent weeks successfully struck several valuable military targets that Russia had moved outside the range of U.S.-provided weapons—and had, until now, considered to be safe. They included one of the largest Russian weapons depots in southern Ukraine and several command centers. Ukraine also used the Storm Shadows to hit the main road bridge that links Russian-occupied Crimea with mainland Ukraine, disabling it for more than a week.

Unlike ATACMS, launched by the Himars vehicles that Ukraine already operates to fire shorter-range missiles, the Scalp and Storm Shadow missiles have to be fired from aircraft. That is a much riskier venture considering that Ukraine’s Soviet-era jets are relatively easy prey to Russian air defenses and more modern Russian fighter jets.

Many Western officials are growing concerned that Russia might regain the initiative in the battlefield and launch an offensive thrust of its own if Ukraine doesn’t show significant gains this summer.
There is a growing realization in many NATO capitals that rejecting or slow-rolling Kyiv’s requests for tanks, fighting vehicles and air defenses a year ago has turned out to be a strategic mistake, diplomats say. The debate at the NATO summit is focusing on what could be done in the coming weeks and months to accelerate the strengthening of Ukraine’s military capabilities.

"There is a growing realization in many NATO capitals that rejecting or slow-rolling Kyiv’s requests for tanks, fighting vehicles and air defenses a year ago has turned out to be a strategic mistake, diplomats say. The debate at the NATO summit is focusing on what could be done in the coming weeks and months to accelerate the strengthening of Ukraine’s military capabilities."

Ya don't say.

Wait and see often doesn't pan out well in international politics.

 

[Chadstroma]

Turkey's pledge of support for Sweden's NATO entry is tied to goals on security and EU membership

Turkey made a surprise pledge to drop its opposition to Sweden joining NATO, paving the way for the Nordic country to become a member of the Western military alliance.

apnews.com

 

[Chadstroma]

In Ukraine, civilians train in survival skills to cope with dangers from Russia’s war

In a cramped municipal building in a residential area of the Ukrainian capital, a group of people take turns training to shoot from a replica machine gun with the help of a weapons training simulator relying on virtual reality.

apnews.com

 

[Chadstroma]

NATO chief says no timetable set for Ukraine's membership; Zelenskyy calls that ‘absurd’

NATO leaders say they will allow Ukraine to join the alliance “when allies agree and conditions are met.”

apnews.com

 

[Orange&Blue]

This is what I was saying above, that Ukraine is probably pretty happy to just kill Russians indefinitely as long as they can do it disproportionately, with a large enough ratio:

So there are six ways Russia might turn the war around. All are unlikely, and three rely on foreign behavior – over which Putin has little control – dramatically changing.

My own sense is that Ukraine will win the war in time by simply outlasting the Russians. That is, this war is more like an insurgency. The insurgent wins by not losing, by waiting for the aggressor to tire. At some point, the exhausted, frustrated aggressor finds it cheaper to just throw in the towel and go home. This is how the Vietnamese beat the US in the 1970s, and how the Afghan mujahidin beat the Red Army in the 1980s.

The current Ukrainian offensive may not succeed dramatically – the critics may be right – but that misses the point. Ukraine is committed; it will fight on and on. Crucially, Russia needs to do more than just hang on against Ukraine. It needs to win, decisively, to force Ukraine to bargain, to end this thing and stop the bleeding. Ukraine, by contrast, just needs to endure, which it has shown it can and will.

Ukrainians largely see this as an existential battle for them with a crap ton of history (not good) between them and Russia. They are committed to it. They are willing to suffer the pain of loss to fight on.

The average Russian on the street is not nearly as committed. Supposed polls show Russian support for the war and government but then during the mutiny it sure looked like your average Russian was neutral at best and some celebrating the change of power with the same for security forces essentially waiving Wagner troops right past them.

As long as the Ukrainians are supplied then they will fight. Russia has no ability to launch any serious offenses. They can't win the war in battle. On the other side, Ukraine is threatening to break their lines. If they do and cut the land bridge to Crimea, it is basically game over and the Ukrainians win.

The longer this goes on with it's military and economy degradation- the more that Russia becomes a glorified North Korea that is firmly within the Chinese sphere of influence and command.

Russian mentality is to always support whoever is the strongest. That will be Putin till he isn't. The temidness seen during the "mutiny" was people waiting to see who was stronger.

Maybe I'm over simplifying things, but it's based on experience and current statements from some Russians.

But perception of who is stronger will not survive losing a war with increasing amounts of Russians KIA. Russian strength isn't just about who is in control of the military and intelligence but it is much more fragile than that. It is a brand or image. That is why Putin went out of his way to show him riding horseback shirtless and doing Judo.

Russians are a broken spirited people. Their history for the last several hundred years is been one of brutal oppressive regimes from the Czars to the Soviets and then Putin... and Putin is the 'nicest' of that line of power. It is impossible to 'read' the Russian people through polls and what not as no one wants to say what they really think. I do think that we got a glimpse of what people really think during the mutiny.... there was no opposition to the mutiny. There was some popular support in the streets and a whole lot of testing to see which way the winds were blowing.

I'm sorry, but I think this is wishful thinking. Their entire history is like this with only brief moments of glory (catherine, etc). They've been around for 1500 years and have gone through A LOT. They aren't at their zenith, but to assume they are broken is incorrect, imo.

 

[themeistersinger]

Zelensky fumes as NATO rejects fast-track entry process for Ukraine

Russia has identified Ukraine's push to join the alliance as one of its key reasons for invading the country.

justthenews.com

I certainly understand Ukraine's eagerness to join NATO, but that is simply out of the question as long as there is a hot war going on there. Zelensky surely understands that - if he were a NATO country now he would never invite another country in that was in a hot war with Russia.

 

[Chadstroma]

This is what I was saying above, that Ukraine is probably pretty happy to just kill Russians indefinitely as long as they can do it disproportionately, with a large enough ratio:

So there are six ways Russia might turn the war around. All are unlikely, and three rely on foreign behavior – over which Putin has little control – dramatically changing.

My own sense is that Ukraine will win the war in time by simply outlasting the Russians. That is, this war is more like an insurgency. The insurgent wins by not losing, by waiting for the aggressor to tire. At some point, the exhausted, frustrated aggressor finds it cheaper to just throw in the towel and go home. This is how the Vietnamese beat the US in the 1970s, and how the Afghan mujahidin beat the Red Army in the 1980s.

The current Ukrainian offensive may not succeed dramatically – the critics may be right – but that misses the point. Ukraine is committed; it will fight on and on. Crucially, Russia needs to do more than just hang on against Ukraine. It needs to win, decisively, to force Ukraine to bargain, to end this thing and stop the bleeding. Ukraine, by contrast, just needs to endure, which it has shown it can and will.

Ukrainians largely see this as an existential battle for them with a crap ton of history (not good) between them and Russia. They are committed to it. They are willing to suffer the pain of loss to fight on.

The average Russian on the street is not nearly as committed. Supposed polls show Russian support for the war and government but then during the mutiny it sure looked like your average Russian was neutral at best and some celebrating the change of power with the same for security forces essentially waiving Wagner troops right past them.

As long as the Ukrainians are supplied then they will fight. Russia has no ability to launch any serious offenses. They can't win the war in battle. On the other side, Ukraine is threatening to break their lines. If they do and cut the land bridge to Crimea, it is basically game over and the Ukrainians win.

The longer this goes on with it's military and economy degradation- the more that Russia becomes a glorified North Korea that is firmly within the Chinese sphere of influence and command.

Russian mentality is to always support whoever is the strongest. That will be Putin till he isn't. The temidness seen during the "mutiny" was people waiting to see who was stronger.

Maybe I'm over simplifying things, but it's based on experience and current statements from some Russians.

But perception of who is stronger will not survive losing a war with increasing amounts of Russians KIA. Russian strength isn't just about who is in control of the military and intelligence but it is much more fragile than that. It is a brand or image. That is why Putin went out of his way to show him riding horseback shirtless and doing Judo.

Russians are a broken spirited people. Their history for the last several hundred years is been one of brutal oppressive regimes from the Czars to the Soviets and then Putin... and Putin is the 'nicest' of that line of power. It is impossible to 'read' the Russian people through polls and what not as no one wants to say what they really think. I do think that we got a glimpse of what people really think during the mutiny.... there was no opposition to the mutiny. There was some popular support in the streets and a whole lot of testing to see which way the winds were blowing.

I'm sorry, but I think this is wishful thinking. Their entire history is like this with only brief moments of glory (catherine, etc). They've been around for 1500 years and have gone through A LOT. They aren't at their zenith, but to assume they are broken is incorrect, imo.

Being broken and a broken spirit are two different things. The point of that is that they are use to a boot on their neck and keeping their heads down and not saying what they actually think to ANYONE else because it could mean the end of you. That is real and that has been a part of their history for 1500 years. That broken spirit I am talking about is NOT because of Ukraine. It is constant oppression that likes of which no other people have suffered through for such a period of time. It part of their national psyche. There are real reasons behind Russia leading the world in alcoholism.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine-Russia war live: Russian general 'killed by British Storm Shadow missile'

A Russian general has been killed on the southern front by a British Storm Shadow missile, according to reports.

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Chadstroma]

Wagner Group nearly seized nuclear weapon during mutiny, Ukraine claims

The claims are disputed by US intelligence sources

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Dezbelief]

The US Army arsenal from 1813 that’s building weapons for Ukraine

The pace of battle in Eastern Europe is highlighting the need to outgun the enemy, a difficult task given the strength of Russia’s artillery.

www.defensenews.com

A few snips

The facility — America’s oldest working arsenal — is nestled by the Hudson River in upstate New York and serves as the only U.S. Army facility able to produce the large caliber cannon tubes critical to tanks, artillery systems and mortars.

For Ukraine, the thousands of weapons supplied by the U.S. are essential. The U.S. has committed to sending Ukraine more than 160 155mm howitzers, 72 105mm howitzers and 31 Abrams tanks, all of which require the type of cannon barrels made at Watervliet. But the invasion has also prompted U.S. officials to take a close look at its own backlog of ammunition — and the potential obstacles to producing more. Potential single sources of failure, like Watervliet, have come under new scrutiny from the military, Congress and contractors.

there are no easy solutions to take the pressure off Watervliet, a sprawling, 142-acre facility established during the War of 1812





While gun tubes vary depending on the system for which they are intended, the process for making one is relatively uniform. The arsenal first receives preformed, raw steel from outside vendors.

The steel is heat-treated to 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit, and the smoldering hot, bright orange rod then moves through the gnawing lamprey-like mouth of the rotary forge that hammers the tube into the shape of a cannon in about 14 minutes.

The cannon undergoes additional heat treatment to toughen up the material to withstand firings. It then moves into rough machining, followed by work on the threads and the power chamber, then the rifling of the inside of the cannon.

After final quality inspections, the cannon receives chrome plating inside the barrel, then it’s painted and packaged to either preserve as a spare cannon tube or deliver for assembly to Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, where it’s fired and potentially accepted.

 

[themeistersinger]

West Offers Frustrated Ukraine Security Commitments Outside NATO - The Moscow Times

Western powers will offer Ukraine a package of long-term security commitments on Wednesday, after NATO dashed President Volodymyr Zelensky's hopes of a clear timeline for joining the alliance. The Ukrainian leader was to hold talks with NATO's 31 leaders at their summit in the Lithuanian...

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia Seeks to Lure Back Wartime Emigres – But Offers Few Incentives - The Moscow Times

Russian officials are working to lure back the hundreds of thousands of citizens who moved abroad since the launch of the country's military offensive against Ukraine — but have so far given them little, if any, incentive to go back.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[The Z Machine]

After final quality inspections, the cannon receives chrome plating inside the barrel, then it’s painted and packaged to either preserve as a spare cannon tube or deliver for assembly to Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, where it’s fired and potentially accepted

Sounds like they are 100% live firing the barrels at APD. Didn't know that.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

At Nato’s summit this week, allies were careful to stress their staunch support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion, and for its leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
But after Zelenskyy blasted Nato for its “absurd” lack of a clear timeline for Ukraine’s entry, tensions began spilling into the open. Referring to Kyiv’s long military wish list, Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary, said on Wednesday: “You know, we’re not Amazon.”
“Whether we like it or not, people want to see gratitude,” Wallace told reporters, echoing a common sentiment among Ukraine’s western backers, who have shelled out a cumulative $170bn of military and financial aid since Russia launched its full-scale invasion last year.

“Yes, the war is a noble war. And yes, you [Ukraine] are fighting not just for yourself but our freedoms. [But] sometimes . . . you have to persuade doubting politicians in other countries that it’s worth it and it’s worthwhile,” Wallace said.
Senior western politicians and officials said the tensions reflected the domestic difficulties that some of Nato’s 31 members have faced in giving Ukraine the continued support it needs — and Kyiv’s disappointment that the weapons and diplomatic backing on offer can fall short of its hopes.

^I would note that Ben Wallace has been a strong advocate for Ukraine

Lengthy, but interesting report here from Mandiant on GRU's cyber operations the last year and a half: https://www.mandiant.com/resources/blog/gru-disruptive-playbook

Overview: The GRU’s Disruptive Playbook​

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mandiant Intelligence has observed the GRU operate a standard, repeatable playbook to pursue its information confrontation objectives. The persistent use of this playbook through the six phases of Russia’s war has indicated its high adaptability across a range of different operational contexts, targets, and over 15 different destructive malware variants. The playbook has also proved highly survivable and resilient to detection and technical countermeasures, allowing the GRU to adhere to a common set of tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) despite an extended period of aggressive, high tempo operational use. Mandiant has observed the playbook in use by multiple distinct Russian threat clusters throughout the war, indicating its central role in standardizing operations across multiple subteams in an attempt to deliver more repeatable, consistent effects.

Across the incidents Mandiant has responded to, we have seen suspected GRU threat clusters generally adhere to the following five operational phases:

1. Living on the Edge: Leveraging hard-to-detect compromised edge infrastructure such as routers, VPNs, firewalls, and mail servers to gain and regain initial access into targets.
2. Living off the Land: Using built-in tools such as operating system components or pre-installed software for reconnaissance, lateral movement and information theft on target networks, likely aiming to limit their malware footprint and evade detection.
3. Going for the GPO: Creating persistent, privileged access from which wipers can be deployed via group policy objects (GPO) using a tried-and-true PowerShell script.
4. Disrupt and Deny: Deploying “pure” wipers and other low-equity disruptive tools such as ransomware to fit a variety of contexts and scenarios.
5. Telegraphing “Success”: Amplifying the narrative of successful disruption via a series of hacktivist personas on Telegram, regardless of the actual impact of the operation.

Top Russian general not seen since mutiny is 'resting', lawmaker says

General Sergei Surovikin, a deputy commander of Russia's military operations in Ukraine who has not been seen in public since last month's armed mutiny by mercenary fighters, is "resting", a lawmaker from the ruling party said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

General Sergei Surovikin, a deputy commander of Russia's military operations in Ukraine who has not been seen in public since last month's armed mutiny by mercenary fighters, is "resting", a lawmaker from the ruling party said on Wednesday.
Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defence Committee, is heard saying in a video posted on social media: "Surovikin is currently resting. (He is) not available for now."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Wagner boss Prigozhin ‘had nothing to lose’ after cancer treatment

Yevgeny Prigozhin has been treated for stomach cancer and his illness may have been a factor in his decision to launch an armed rebellion against Moscow, a repo

www.thetimes.co.uk

Yevgeny Prigozhin has been treated for stomach cancer and his illness may have been a factor in his decision to launch an armed rebellion against Moscow, a report has claimed.
The leader of the Wagner mercenary group underwent years of intensive therapy and his cancer is now in remission, according to former employees cited by Proekt, a Russian investigative website that has been banned by the Kremlin. He now follows a strict diet and has not been seen with anything stronger than a glass of lemonade in recent years.
Marat Gabidullin, a former Wagner commander who left the group in 2019, told The Times that despite a tradition of heavy drinking among Russian mercenaries, Prigozhin is a teetotaller. “I never saw him drunk or even tipsy,” he said.

Documents show that Prigozhin underwent unspecified treatment at a clinic in St Petersburg that is linked to President Putin. The Sogaz clinic is owned by AO Sogaz, a Russian insurance company whose deputy chief executive is Mikhail Putin, a businessman who is thought to be the president’s second cousin. The clinic’s general director also has a business relationship with Putin’s elder daughter, Maria Vorontsova, according to a Reuters investigation.

Prigozhin’s treatment at the clinic was revealed in June when a number of his fake passports were uncovered during a police raid on his mansion in St Petersburg. One of the passports was in the name of “Dmitry Geiler” – who was listed as a “super VIP” patient at the clinic in documents obtained by Radio Liberty in 2021. Medical equipment was also found in the raid, including ventilators.
A photograph of the severed heads of four unidentified men was also found during the raid. It is believed to have been taken in Africa, where Wagner mercenaries have been accused of numerous human rights abuses.

Prigozhin’s unprecedented mutiny may have been the action of a man with little to lose, one of the former Wagner employees said. “This is a man with a cut-out stomach and intestines!”
Little is known about Prigozhin’s private life. However, Gabidullin said that his behaviour behind closed doors is not very different to his public image. “He has the same manner in real life,” he said. “This is someone who is unable to hide his true nature.”
Gabidullin described Prigozhin as “smart” and “well-read” but laughed when asked who the mercenary chief’s favourite authors were. “I never discussed his literary passions with him, you know?” he said. Gabidullin’s memoir about his experiences with Wagner, In the Same River Twice, has been published in Europe.

 

[IrishTwinkie]

After final quality inspections, the cannon receives chrome plating inside the barrel, then it’s painted and packaged to either preserve as a spare cannon tube or deliver for assembly to Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, where it’s fired and potentially accepted

Sounds like they are 100% live firing the barrels at APD. Didn't know that.

That's ok. I didn't know that the arsenal was still operational. This was effectively in my backyard where I grew up. Looking at it today you wouldn't really think it was actively doing anything. When I go back I occasionally pass it on the road. I remember doing some volunteer work there at some sort of special olympics thing when I was a teen. Who knew it was still active... shrugs.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Wagner fighters start handing over their weapons

Russia’s Wagner group has begun to hand over its arms and heavy equipment as part of a plan to dismantle the paramilitaries following their failed insurrection last month, according to the defence ministry.
Wagner has handed over more than 2,000 pieces of equipment, including tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and rockets, air defence systems, howitzers, and anti-tank weapons, the Russian defence ministry said on Wednesday.
The handover is part of a deal to dismantle the group after its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin led a revolt against the Russian army’s top brass for a day in late June. The ministry said it was already “finishing” the transfer “according to the plan”, without elaborating.
Wagner, whose men have appeared to mostly remain at its bases in eastern Ukraine since the revolt, has not commented on the handover. Prigozhin has said the group was prepared to surrender its heavy weaponry before its rivalry with the army sputtered out of control in June.

I'm going to say those numbers are likely inflated.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius and to threaten the Black Sea grain deal. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that

www.understandingwar.org

A Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike reportedly killed Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov at the command post of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.[20] Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian sources reported Tsokov’s death on July 11, and social media users reported that Tsokov died in a strike on a local hotel according to preliminary information.[21] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov published footage purportedly showing smoke plumes resulting from Ukrainian missile strikes on Berdyansk but did not offer any information regarding Tsokov’s death.[22] Tsokov was previously wounded during a Ukrainian strike on Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, in late September 2022 when he commanded the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District (WMD).[23] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that locals knew about Tsokov’s arrival and noted that Ukrainian forces have been systematically targeting Russian-occupied infrastructure in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblast – specifically recreation centers that Russian forces use as headquarters and command posts.[24] Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly signaled that Ukrainian forces are conducting an interdiction campaign as part of their counteroffensives to disrupt Russian logistics and command.[25] ISW has observed the 58th CAA‘s 42nd Motorized Rifle Division operating south of Orikhiv and the 58th CAA‘s 19th Motorized Rifle Division operating southwest of Orikhiv.[26] Tsokov’s presence at the reported command post of the 58th CAA suggests that he was personally overseeing the army responsible for repelling Ukrainian counteroffensives in key sectors of western Zaporizhia Oblast stretching from near Polohy (90km southeast of Zaporizhzhia City) to the Kakhovka Reservoir.

Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian military command for failing to defend against Ukrainian strikes on Russian headquarters. One milblogger claimed that Russia lacks professional military analysts who would improve the Russian military command’s decision-making processes and adequately analyze information to develop risk assessments.[27] Another milblogger claimed that Russian forces continue to underestimate Ukrainian intelligence capabilities that set conditions for the strike.[28] The Kremlin-affiliated milblogger complained that Russian officers have poor operational security procedures despite knowing about the dangers of operations in occupied southern Ukraine.[29]

Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov reportedly fired Commander of the 58th CAA Major General Ivan Popov after Popov voiced his concerns over the need for troop rotations in western Zaporizhia Oblast amidst Ukrainian counteroffensives.[30] A source reportedly affiliated with the Russian security services claimed that Popov notified Gerasimov that elements of the 58th CAA – which are attempting to prevent Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast – are in need of rotation after fighting in combat for a long time and suffering significant casualties.[31] Gerasimov reportedly accused Popov of alarmism and blackmailing the Russian military command. The source added that Gerasimov dismissed Popov and sent him to forward positions after Popov threatened to appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin with his complaint. Another Russian source who appears to be in contact with Russian forces in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast stated that his sources confirmed Popov’s dismissal after he raised a ”real” question about the lack of rotations in Polohy Raion on the Orikhiv frontline.[32] These reports, if true, may support ISW’s previous assessments that Russian forces lack operational reserves that would allow them to carry out rotations of personnel defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives and that Russian defensive lines may be brittle.[33]

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Biden Administration Is Quietly Debating Whether to Send Ukraine ATACMS Missiles

The United States already has plans for its limited stock of long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems.

www.nytimes.com

But two American officials and one European official described a quiet debate within the Biden administration over whether to send even a few of the surface-to-surface guided missiles, which are being reserved for other security threats. The officials spoke on the condition on anonymity to discuss an internal administration debate.

American defense officials have warned that their arsenal of ATACMS is relatively small, and the missiles have been committed for other Pentagon war plans, in places including the Korean Peninsula. Only about 4,000 ATACMS have been manufactured since the missile was developed in the 1980s, a Lockheed Martin spokeswoman said on Tuesday.
Giving them to Ukraine would risk readiness in the other hot spots.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

US President Joe Biden said Wednesday he is considering sending long-range missiles to Ukraine after France and the UK sent similar systems, a potentially significant shift as Washington alters its risk calculus in Ukraine as the war slogs on.

Kyiv has long sought the weapons to better penetrate Russian defences, but Washington has held off out of fears of Russian escalation. France announced this week it would send such weapons and the UK has already sent its storm shadows.

“They already have the equivalent of ATACMS now, what we need most of all is artillery shells,” Biden said using the name for the American long range missiles as he boarded the plane to Helsinki.

 

[Chadstroma]

Former US Army general says Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin likely isn't dead. If he were, Putin wouldn't be keeping it a secret.

If Yevgeny Prigozhin were dead or jailed after Wagner's rebellion, it would make Vladimir Putin appear "stronger," a retired US Army general said.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia's economy dealt a crushing blow as its current-account surplus collapses by 93%

Russia's current-account surplus tanked 93% to $5.4 billion last quarter from the year-earlier period, Bank of Russia data show, dealing a fresh blow to the beleaguered economy.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1679247092701868032

New cracks in the Russian military. Maj Gen Ivan Popov, commander of 58th Army in Zaporizhzhia, complains of a traitorous stab in the back after being suddenly removed for, as he says, telling the truth about mass casualties caused by Ukrainian artillery .

https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1679249487313661953

The Prigozhin mutiny may be over, but the causes of the mutiny - the war going badly, the corruption and incompetence at the top exposed - are still there. A major Russian commander, dismissed yesterday, made an audio address to his troops saying that they were stubbed in the back by "higher authorities" [Gerasimov].

 

[tri-man 47]

the smoldering hot, bright orange rod then moves through the gnawing lamprey-like mouth of the rotary forge

 

[Orange&Blue]

The US Army arsenal from 1813 that’s building weapons for Ukraine

The pace of battle in Eastern Europe is highlighting the need to outgun the enemy, a difficult task given the strength of Russia’s artillery.

www.defensenews.com

A few snips

The facility — America’s oldest working arsenal — is nestled by the Hudson River in upstate New York and serves as the only U.S. Army facility able to produce the large caliber cannon tubes critical to tanks, artillery systems and mortars.

For Ukraine, the thousands of weapons supplied by the U.S. are essential. The U.S. has committed to sending Ukraine more than 160 155mm howitzers, 72 105mm howitzers and 31 Abrams tanks, all of which require the type of cannon barrels made at Watervliet. But the invasion has also prompted U.S. officials to take a close look at its own backlog of ammunition — and the potential obstacles to producing more. Potential single sources of failure, like Watervliet, have come under new scrutiny from the military, Congress and contractors.

there are no easy solutions to take the pressure off Watervliet, a sprawling, 142-acre facility established during the War of 1812





While gun tubes vary depending on the system for which they are intended, the process for making one is relatively uniform. The arsenal first receives preformed, raw steel from outside vendors.

The steel is heat-treated to 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit, and the smoldering hot, bright orange rod then moves through the gnawing lamprey-like mouth of the rotary forge that hammers the tube into the shape of a cannon in about 14 minutes.

The cannon undergoes additional heat treatment to toughen up the material to withstand firings. It then moves into rough machining, followed by work on the threads and the power chamber, then the rifling of the inside of the cannon.

After final quality inspections, the cannon receives chrome plating inside the barrel, then it’s painted and packaged to either preserve as a spare cannon tube or deliver for assembly to Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, where it’s fired and potentially accepted.

it's stuff like this, allowing our manufacturing capability to shrink to just one source, that really annoys me. one bomb and.... no more cannons.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

WSJ News Exclusive | Russia Detained Several Senior Military Officers in Wake of Wagner Mutiny

Hours after Yevgeny Prigozhin began a short-lived march on Moscow, the country’s domestic security service detained several high-ranking military officers, including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who remains held.

www.wsj.com

Hours after Russian paramilitary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin began a short-lived march on Moscow, the country’s domestic security service detained several high-ranking military officers, including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, head of aerospace forces, people familiar with the situation said.
Surovikin, known as General Armageddon for bombing campaigns he waged in Syria, is being held and interrogated in Moscow, the people said. He hasn’t been charged with a crime. One said Surovikin knew about plans for the insurrection but that the general wasn’t involved in the mutiny.
The Kremlin’s effort to weed out officers suspected of disloyalty is broader than publicly known, according to the people, who said at least 13 senior officers were detained for questioning, with some later released, and around 15 suspended from duty or fired.

“The detentions are about cleaning the ranks of those who are believed can’t be trusted anymore,” one said.
Neither the Kremlin nor Russia’s Defense Ministry responded to requests for comment. Andrei Kartapolov, head of the Russian parliament’s defense committee, said in a video circulating on Russian social media this week that Surovikin was resting and “not available right now.”
Surovikin’s deputy, Col. Gen. Andrey Yudin, and the deputy head of military intelligence, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alexeyev, also were detained but later released. They have been suspended from duty, their movements have been restricted and they are under observation, one of the people said.
Among other figures detained is former Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev, who previously served as deputy defense minister and joined Prigozhin’s Wagner Group private military company in late April.

Surovikin wasn’t being held in a detention center, but was undergoing repeated interrogations as investigators probed what role, if any, he played in the uprising, the people familiar with the situation said.
They said Surovikin could be released once Putin decides how to handle the fallout from the mutiny.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ouster of Russian General ‘Spartacus’ Sparks Ruling Party Feud

A Russian general who accused army chiefs of “treacherously” ousting him for criticizing troop losses in the war in Ukraine has sparked a political feud within President Vladimir Putin’s ruling party, the latest sign of tensions over the military following the mutiny by Wagner mercenaries.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Analysis: Ukraine rolls back 6 months of Russian gains in 5 weeks

MSN

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukrainian Prisoners Tortured, Forced to Dig Russian Trenches – AP - The Moscow Times

Thousands of Ukrainian civilians held by Russian forces are tortured and forced to dig trenches for the military, the Associated Press reported Thursday, citing dozens of former detainees, Ukrainian officials and satellite imagery.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US, NATO weapons stockpile 'dangerously low': USAF General - Breaking Defense

“So we don’t have nearly what we had at the heart of the Cold War. Now you add that we’re giving a lot of munitions away to the Ukrainians — which I think is exactly what we need to do — but now we’re getting dangerously low and sometimes, in some cases even too low that we don’t have enough,”...

breakingdefense.com

Amid a high tempo of arms transfers to Ukraine, the stockpile of US weapons and those of allies are getting “dangerously low,” the commander of US Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) said today. And worse, he warned, no “short term” fixes are on the horizon.

Speaking on a panel with the air chiefs of the United Kingdom and Sweden during the Chief of the Air Staff’s Global Air & Space Chiefs’ Conference in London, USAFE Commander Gen. James Hecker, who also leads US air forces in Africa, urged fellow North Atlantic Treaty Organization members to take a hard look at the status of their weapon stockpiles.

“I think it’s very important that we kind of take stock of where we are in our weapons state across the 32 nations of NATO, and we’re getting way down compared to where we were,” said Hecker, who counted Sweden’s expected accession to NATO among the collection of allied nations — a topic of heated discussion at the NATO summit in Lithuania this week.

“If you look at the US itself — and let’s not just talk about the munitions we recently have given away to Ukraine — but we’re [at] roughly half the number of fighter squadrons that we were when we did Desert Storm,” Hecker said, pointing to a similar decline in fighter strength for the UK. “So we don’t have nearly what we had at the heart of the Cold War. Now you add that we’re giving a lot of munitions away to the Ukrainians — which I think is exactly what we need to do — but now we’re getting dangerously low and sometimes, in some cases even too low, that we don’t have enough. And we need to get industry on board to help us out so we can get this going.”

Haugh, Biden’s pick to lead CYBERCOM and NSA, pushes Ukraine aid

The U.S. sent cyber experts to Ukraine in late 2021, ahead of Russia's invasion, to shore up network defenses and identify hacking tools.

www.defensenews.com

Russia’s pattern of cyber belligerence against Ukraine, heightened by an ongoing invasion, necessitates continued support from the U.S., according to President Joe Biden’s pick to lead Cyber Command and the National Security Agency.

While Ukraine deserves “great credit” for shoring up its digital defenses and coordinating with NATO members, Russian hacking attempts will likely not abate, Air Force Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh told lawmakers during his July 12 confirmation hearing.

“We would expect that Russia will continue to use every cyber capability that they have as part of their unlawful conflict,” he said. “Wherever we can provide assistance, we should continue to do that.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1679495128681938944

John Kirby tells MSNBC White House approved cluster rounds to Ukraine “so that their howitzers don't fall silent” due to shortage of regular 155 mm artillery shells after shipping over 1.5 million. When US can build more, it will send those “rather than these cluster munitions.”

Likely indicates the rate of fire is higher than expected. Not surprising.

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1679498600202526720

Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, offered this assessment today about the post-mutiny uncertainty in Russia: "There's a lot of drama going on at the very senior levels."

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1679468509498073088

1/ This is an interesting thread from a Ukrainian soldiers going through Western military training in Germany. Key points that stand out: "They do not rely on electronic devices at all, and the fact that we go on missions with Chinese smartphones and tablets was wild for them."

2/ "But after "Kropyva", I don't want to go back to paper docs at all. The same for quadcopters - the concept of DJI Mavics and the use of civilian copters is simply not even in their plans. Of course, they study our war, but they are still surprised that we use it (quadcopters) like that."

3/ (For the record, "Kropyva" is a Ukrainian proprietary intelligence mapping software developed for planning, calculations, and orientation that is used by hundreds of units throughout Ukraine).

4/ More from the Ukrainian soldier: "For a week, we were taught to read maps, take the azimuth, transfer the azimuth from the compass to the map and vice versa. When we told them that we use electronic cards on tablets and phones, they did not take us seriously."

5/ "They have different drone types, but this is purely brigade level. This shows that in addition to the war with the ********** in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, the Americans have not participated in a serious war for a long time. Their army does not have an analogue of the Chinese Mavic 3, it was a shock for us."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Thousands of Ukraine civilians are being held in Russian prisons. Russia plans to build many more

The Ukrainian civilians woke long before dawn in the bitter cold, lined up for the single toilet and were loaded at gunpoint into the livestock trailer. They spent the next 12 hours or more digging trenches on the front lines for Russian soldiers.

Many were forced to wear overlarge Russian military uniforms that could make them a target, and a former city administrator trudged around in boots five sizes too big. By the end of the day, their hands curled into icy claws.

Nearby, in the occupied region of Zaporizhzhia, other Ukrainian civilians dug mass graves into the frozen ground for fellow prisoners who had not survived. One man who refused to dig was shot on the spot — yet another body for the grave.

Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are being detained across Russia and the Ukrainian territories it occupies, in centers ranging from brand-new wings in Russian prisons to clammy basements. Most have no status under Russian law.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Why Ukraine Needs Cluster Munitions

Thanks for reading Andrew’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Last week, the US Government announced its intention to supply the Ukrainian military with cluster munitions – a decision that has faced criticism from human rights groups and governments around...

amilburn.substack.com

Good read from retired Marine Colonel Milburn.

Why the Fuss?

President Biden’s decision to give the Ukrainians cluster munitions has been criticized by international human rights groups and several NATO allies, to include the UK. This is because cluster munitions, by design, disperse bomblets over a wide area, with unexploded ones posing a risk to civilians long after a war is over. The higher the “dud” rate, the more likely they are to cause unintended casualties.

They are indeed nasty weapons. The first US casualties my unit sustained during the 2003 invasion of Iraq were from US delivered cluster munitions: one Marine killed and four maimed in the space of seconds, their shocked platoon mates risking a similar fate as they moved to help them. At that time, before IEDs became ubiquitous, there seemed something especially invidious about a munition that lay dormant before exploding without warning. The United States has not used cluster munitions since then.

Almost 20 years later, on the other side of the world, I witnessed again the appalling injuries caused by these munitions – this time among Ukrainian soldiers, civilians, and aid workers in the area around Bakhmut which has been saturated by Russian cluster munitions since the outset of the war.

Critics of the President’s decision, see it as a violation of international norms on the conduct of armed conflict. The Convention on Cluster Munitions, signed in 2008, bans the use, transfer, production and stockpiling of the cluster munitions. The United States, Russia and Ukraine chose not to sign, but 25 of the 31 members of NATO did.

Why Cluster Munitions ?

In contrast to Ukraine and it’s NATO suppliers, Russia appears to have an inexhaustible supply of artillery rounds – and can sustain a daily rate of fire several times that of its adversary. To help redress this balance, Ukraine has asked America to supply dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM), a type of cluster munition that can be fired from tube or rocket artillery. DPICM would also ease the Ukrainians’ chronic shortage of artillery shells and relieve pressure on their overworked guns.

NATO members, prominently the United States, are doing everything they can supply the Ukrainians with sufficient artillery shells, but the truth – revealed starkly by this conflict– is that even the United States lacks the manufacturing capacity on hand to keep pace with the demands of modern war. This shortfall is more acute now that Ukraine is in the attack.

This offensive, as are most, is primarily a breaching operation – the term used for a penetration of the enemy’s defensive belt – in one or more places – using massive amounts of artillery to keep his head down while doing so. Without DPICM, the Ukrainians cannot sustain such a rate of fire – hence their request.

 

[Chadstroma]

China's trade with Russia surges to the highest level since Putin launched his war on Ukraine

Trade between the two nations rose to $20.83 billion in June, the highest since February 2022, according to data from Beijing.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia's economy is spiraling. The state of its car industry shows just how badly it's deteriorated.

"Russians are just buying less cars. That speaks to the weakness of the consumer in Russia," a source said. "And the story it tells is profoundly distressing."

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Despite the Kremlin’s Best Efforts, Putin’s Facade Has Cracked - The Moscow Times

Opinion | For the outside observer, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be riding high on a wave of national support and euphoria following the Wagner rebellion.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Institute for Study of War reports new achievements by Ukrainian forces

As of 13 July, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Ukrainian defenders conducted a counterattack in at least three sectors of the front and succeeded on some fronts.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine posts trade deficit of $8.97 billion in January-May period

Ukraine's trade deficit grew to $8.97 billion in the first five months of the year compared with a deficit of about $1 billion posted in the same period a year ago, the statistics service said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia says West is sponsoring 'nuclear terrorism' after Ukrainian drone strike

Russia accused the West on Friday of sponsoring "nuclear terrorism" after authorities said a Ukrainian drone had struck the western Russian town of Kurchatov, where a nuclear power station similar to the ill-fated Chernobyl plant is located.

www.reuters.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin's War, Week 72. Ukraine Misses NATO Membership but Still Wins and Ground Combat Gains Velocity

https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/07/14/putins-war-week-72-ukraine-misses-nato-membership-but-still-wins-and-ground-combat-gains-velocity-n774612

This past week most of the story in Putin’s War was political. The NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, brought Ukraine a giant step closer to joining NATO, but even without the invitation to join, Ukraine has achieved a special status with NATO and bilateral defense agreements with each of the G-7 nations. The Ukrainian offensive continues to grind on and is beginning to show signs of making progress.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

A Ukrainian commander describes the grueling battle against dug-in Russian forces.

Troops with the 36th Marine Brigade have been the tip of the spear in Ukraine’s counteroffensive and have advanced about five miles into a bulge into Russian lines in southern Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

Good read here on the 36th Marine Brigade:

Even as he commanded troops in a fierce, weeklong fight to capture one Russian position, Col. Viktor Sikoza received disturbing news: The Russians were using this time to build yet another fortification behind it.
“They are still building their defenses,” Colonel Sikoza said. “They carry on doing it” even as Ukraine is pressing forward, however slowly, in a high-stakes counteroffensive in the country’s south.
The troops of Colonel Sikoza, the commander of 36th Marine Brigade, have been the tip of the spear in Ukraine’s push and have advanced about five miles into a bulge into Russian lines in southern Ukraine.
Colonel Sikoza is just one commander, but his account matches Ukrainian reports of heavily entrenched Russian positions. Over the past week, Colonel Sikoza oversaw an assault on a forest that was partly surrounded by swampy, low-lying terrain. Russian forces had dug in and mined the only ground around that was firm enough to support armored vehicles. The assault, he said, had to take place on foot.
Infantry filtered into the forest and fought at close range, he said. “We are marines — we are aggressive,” he said. A company of Russian soldiers, about 80 men, were dug into trenches in the trees, he said. Colonel Sikoza described how a decisive turn came when his troops captured two bunkers and a trench line on the edge of the forest, partly cutting off the Russians ability to resupply the group and forcing them to retreat.

His soldiers are highly motivated to capture positions, and with them Russian prisoners: In the first month of the war, the 36th Marine Brigade was surrounded in the city of Mariupol and more than 1,000 marines were taken prisoner by the Russians. “We want to trade them for our guys,” Colonel Sikoza said of Russian captives.

Colonel Sikoza’s advance to the south is also a personal odyssey. He escaped from the Crimean Peninsula when Russia occupied it in 2014. If the counteroffensive is successful, it could put Ukrainian artillery within range to threaten the isthmus to the peninsula, cutting Russian supply lines.
But it has been painfully slow. President Volodymyr Zelensky has conceded that the counteroffensive is not going as rapidly as some allies had hoped, and American officials have said Ukraine is losing Western-provided armored vehicles in the minefields.

“For more than a year, the enemy fortified here,” Colonel Sikoza said in an interview at a picnic table in the shade of a walnut tree in the yard of his command post near the front. Every minute or so, the booms of outgoing and incoming artillery rang out.

Of the Ukrainian effort to advance, he acknowledged: “It will not go according to the pace we counted on.”
Ahead of the Ukrainian bulge in this spot, the Russians have completed a third line of defenses, Colonel Sikoza said. They have laid additional concrete tank barriers of a type the Ukrainians call dragon’s teeth. And they have deployed additional troops.
There is little he can do about it, he said. “Unfortunately, we do not have enough precision weaponry to hit targets at long range” behind the Russian front lines. The additional defenses, he said, will slow Ukraine further.

Still, Colonel Sikoza’s troops have scored some successes.
One soldier, who asked to be identified only by his rank and first name for security reasons, Lt Yevhen, said he had shot down a Russian attack helicopter using a Javelin anti-tank guided missile, a rare feat with a weapon mostly intended to hit targets on the ground.
And though the brigade operates mostly Soviet-legacy artillery systems, it was able to hit a Russian barracks far behind the front line, Ukrainian officers said. A group of Russian soldiers had posted a video on social media complaining of poor living conditions and what they said were unreasonable orders from commanders.
Lt. Denys Ryabynko, who commands a unit of Grad rocket artillery, was interested less in the complaint than in the distinctive brick building in the background. The Ukrainians were able to identify it in a village behind Russian lines and hit it with a barrage of rockets, he said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian foreign minister showed no signs of compromise on Ukraine at meetings with Asian leaders, Blinken says

Russian President Vladimir Putin told a Russian newspaper Thursday that the private mercenary Wagner Group "simply does not exist." Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken slammed Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s position in meetings with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, saying that the minister remained immovable in regard to his country's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

At a press conference in Jakarta, Indonesia, Blinken said nothing he heard from Lavrov “suggested any change in direction when it comes to what Russia is doing in Ukraine.”

Wagner is training Belarusian fighters, country's defense ministry says

Russian President Vladimir Putin told a Russian newspaper Thursday that the private mercenary Wagner Group "simply does not exist." Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

Russian private military group Wagner's fighters are training Belarusian fighters near the town of Osipovichi, about 90 kilometers (or about 56 miles) south of the capital Minsk, according to the Defense Ministry of Belarus.

"Conscripts learn the skills of moving on the battlefield and tactical shooting, gaining knowledge in engineering training and tactical medicine," the ministry said Friday, adding that Wagner fighters "acted as instructors in a number of military disciplines"

Following the Wagner group’s failed mutiny, the mercenary fighters were given the option to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, go to Belarus or return home.

US official on timing of cluster munitions' use in Ukraine: Russia will be "the first to know"

Russian President Vladimir Putin told a Russian newspaper Thursday that the private mercenary Wagner Group "simply does not exist." Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

US-supplied cluster munitions got into Ukraine so quickly because they were already prepositioned in Europe, a US official told CNN.

Now that the munitions are in Ukraine, when will they be used? “We’ve made a decision to let the Russians be the first to know,” the official said.

The Pentagon confirmed Thursday the weapons were in Ukraine, after a Ukrainian commander told CNN in an earlier interview that they had been received and could "radically change" the battlefield situation.

The controversial cluster munitions are banned by over 100 countries around the globe.

Joint Staff Director for Operations Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims said Thursday during a press conference that the Ukrainians don’t have “any interest in using the cluster munitions anywhere near the civilian population, unlike the Russians.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Some of Russia's Wagner mercenaries are in Belarus

Belarus said on Friday that fighters from the Wagner mercenary group were instructing its soldiers at a military range southeast of Minsk, the first indication that at least part of a deal to end a mutiny in Russia may be being implemented.

www.reuters.com

Belarus said on Friday that fighters from the Wagner mercenary group were instructing its soldiers at a military range southeast of Minsk, the first indication that at least part of a deal to end a mutiny in Russia may be being implemented.
Some Wagner fighters have been in Belarus since at least Tuesday, two sources close to the fighters told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation.

Short piece on Budanov: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-spymaster-comes-out-shadows-2023-07-14/

Longer piece on cyber operations in this war: https://www.csis.org/analysis/cyber...sso-ukrainian-war#h2-russian-cyber-operations

There was a 75 percent increase in documented cyber intrusions—but a decline in the average severity of the attack. The severity level for the average fell after the full-scale invasion, indicating that although low-level disruption and espionage have continued, there has been a significant drop in degradation-type operations coming from Russia. The results are statistically significant and reported in the Statistical Appendix. What is unknown is whether this decline is a function of deliberate targeting or the resiliency of Ukrainian cyber defenses, issues addressed later in this study.

Contrary to speculation that Russian targets would shift to focus on supporting military operations, an analysis of the DCID shows no statistically significant change in targeting or the overall campaign type. There was no statistically significant difference in targeting before and after the invasion (see Statistical Appendix). This finding suggests that the utility of cyber operations rests in setting conditions and intelligence more than in direct application during large-scale combat operations. While cyber-enabled targeting supports combat, the data shows that larger cyber campaigns do not radically shift during wartime. What the findings cannot determine is whether or not this observation is a function of the character of cyberspace or the result of case-specific factors such as the resiliency of Ukraine’s cyber defense.

 

[Kal El]

Russia says West is sponsoring 'nuclear terrorism' after Ukrainian drone strike

Russia accused the West on Friday of sponsoring "nuclear terrorism" after authorities said a Ukrainian drone had struck the western Russian town of Kurchatov, where a nuclear power station similar to the ill-fated Chernobyl plant is located.

www.reuters.com

They clearly forgot that we know about the power plant in Ukraine that they’re holding and have rigged with explosives(probably poorly, but I digress).

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US paying contractor to quietly supply Bulgarian 155mm shells to Ukraine

A $402 million contract suggests the former Soviet-bloc country is now producing NATO-standard artillery rounds.

www.defenseone.com

For months, Bulgaria’s pro-Russian president fought to keep his country from joining an EU effort to make 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine. He appeared to lose that battle in June, when the country’s pro-Ukraine defense minister declared that the NATO ally would “not exclude” the possibility that domestic firms would produce the ammunition.

But according to Army and U.S. contracting documents, Bulgaria has been providing 155mm shells to Ukraine all along—through the United States, with deliveries scheduled through next year.

Russia’s Army Is in Disarray But Will Keep Fighting

Russia’s army is in some disarray, but despite low troop morale and the passivity of officers, the military is ready to pay a high price.

cepa.org

I thought that was an interesting read.

 

[massraider]

Victims of “Donbas genocide” were paid actors, Prigozhin’s fired trolls reveal

In the aftermath of Prigozhin's media empire collapse, former employees spoke out about the dark tactics employed, including hiring individuals to portray "victims of Ukrainian Armed Forces” in staged reports that underpinned Russia's fake pretext for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine -- its...

euromaidanpress.com

Former Wagner trolls explain the Donbas genocide was staged. Shocker

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ben Wallace: I’m resigning from politics at the next cabinet reshuffle

Just before the start of the war in Ukraine, Ben Wallace and his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov had to speak in code. Before secure communications were

www.thetimes.co.uk

Just before the start of the war in Ukraine, Ben Wallace and his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov had to speak in code. Before secure communications were established with Kyiv, the defence secretary referred to the weapons systems Britain was supplying to Ukraine as if he was shipping a consignment of drinks.
Wallace, who served as a captain in the Scots Guards and then as a member of the Scottish parliament before he arrived in Westminster, said: “I just picked whiskies. So the Nlaw [anti-tank missile] was Glenfiddich and Harpoon anti-ship missiles were Islay. I would text him saying ‘I’ve got some whisky for you’ or ‘the whisky is on its way’. We just picked codewords, minister to minister.”
On the eve of the conflict Wallace went to Moscow to meet Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, who lied to his face, saying there would be no invasion. Wallace enjoyed a deception of his own. “We were exchanging gifts and I gave him a bottle of Glenfiddich. He didn’t know what it meant. The joke was on him.”

Despite these flashpoints, his greatest concern is the danger of military conflict with Russia, accidental or otherwise. “If Putin loses in Ukraine, he will be deeply wounded,” Wallace said. “He’s still got an air force and he’s still got a navy — and we see his navy do quite aggressive manoeuvres. Putin is not done with us yet. There is an ability for him, in the next three or four years, to lash out.
“He’s not finished. He will look for people to blame. It was put it out that the British were behind the Prigozhin plot [when Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, staged a brief armed rebellion] by a Russian government stooge.”

While the threat of Putin using nuclear weapons has receded, partly because both China and India have made clear to the Kremlin that it would be unacceptable, Wallace adds: “It’s still there in their doctrine. They have a doctrine for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, which is anathema to all of us.”
One way Russia could cripple the UK would be to attack undersea cables carrying communications links and energy supplies. “Russia has a programme to have the ability to attack critical infrastructure on the seabed, whether that’s fibre-optics or gas and oil. They have ships and submarines for it.”

“We had a clear identifiable vulnerability,” he said, “40 per cent of Europe’s energy now comes from Norwegian gas fields. Imagine how vulnerable that is.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Outnumbered with outdated kit: a day with Ukraine’s helicopter pilots

Sitting in his clunky, Soviet-designed helicopter, Major Maksym of the Ukrainian air force could offer only one explanation for why he and his colleagues keep flying despite being outgunned and outnumbered by their Russian adversaries: “We have iron arses.” A field of sunflowers swayed in the breeze

www.thetimes.co.uk

Good read

Sitting in his clunky, Soviet-designed helicopter, Major Maksym of the Ukrainian air force could offer only one explanation for why he and his colleagues keep flying despite being outgunned and outnumbered by their Russian adversaries: “We have iron arses.”
A field of sunflowers swayed in the breeze outside the cabin door as he elaborated: “We have only courage, morale and experience to help us, but that’s it.”
In 16 months of full-scale war, Maksym, 29, and his comrades have ducked and dived their way through hellish engagements from Mariupol to Snake Island. Now they are in action around the smoking ruins of Bakhmut, where their helicopter recently survived being peppered by machinegun fire.
Half of their unit has been killed. “The Russians are hunting us,” Maksym said. Those who remain keep flying missions to the front lines, joking and chatting about anything — music, girls, the foxes and rabbits running below — to distract them from the danger as they fire unguided rockets at Russian targets, hoping they won’t be hit themselves.

Their bravado masks a harsh reality: they are up against a far better-armed enemy and feel sick with frustration that they cannot do more.
“The Russians understand we can do nothing to them in the air,” said Maksym, who, in accordance with Ukrainian military restrictions, cannot give his last name. He and his co-pilot, Vadym, and Dima, the technical engineer, had returned that morning from a mission to Bakhmut, where they fired some of their precious supply of unguided rockets at Russian soldiers hiding in a forest. They are only flying one mission a day in their Mil Mi-8 helicopter (top speed: 155 mph) to try to save ammunition.
“If we had more rockets we could go on more missions,” Maksym said.

The Soviet-designed Mi-8s in which Maksym flies and fights are used by other countries, including Russia, mainly for transport. Some of his colleagues in the air force fly the marginally newer Mi-24 attack helicopters. Other pilots strike Russian targets in Soviet-era planes such as the Sukhoi Su-25.
But their firepower and capability are dwarfed by the Russian air force, which wields large numbers of newer attack helicopters, including the Kamov Ka-52, alongside advanced combat aircraft.

Ukrainian pilots say that the Russians have got better at hiding, often in basements of ruined buildings, and are harder to hit. The Ukrainians typically have no additional air cover, and are often quickly spotted and targeted by the Russians. “The Russian jets are much better quality than ours, Maksym said. “It’s like comparing a Mercedes to a Lada.”

Wow:

But the pilots are greatly outnumbered and at enormous risk. To escape sophisticated Russian detection systems, they are obliged to fly towards the front lines at only 15ft above ground, skipping over hedges and dachas until they can get within a suitable range to unleash a few rockets.
The Ukrainian pilots say they could do much more if they had access to more rockets or newer attack helicopters and western combat aircraft equipped with long-range missiles.

Though American-made F-16 fighter jets have been promised by US allies, delivery delays and training times make it unlikely that they will be deployed over the battlefield before spring next year. Britain and America have, for now, ruled out directly sending fighter jets.
On the ground, meanwhile, Ukrainian combatants complain that they don’t have the tools and weaponry required to advance at speed through the miles of defensive fortifications — a modern Maginot line of tightly strewn mines, dragon’s teeth (anti-tank obstacles) and barbed wire — that the Russians have spent months building. And they can’t push through without reliable air cover and improved short-range air defences.
“We know no one is going to do our job instead of us, so we’re getting on with it,” said Dima, 30, the helicopter unit’s technical engineer. “But we need more rockets.”

Despite the best efforts of the pilots, soldiers around the front lines said they rarely felt covered by the Ukrainian air force. “There’s no help from them here,” said Serhii, 37, part of a raiding unit, as he smoked a cigarette in a boarded-up cafe near the southern front. “We’re waiting for the planes,” he added as blasts sounded in the distance.
In contrast to lightning Ukrainian advances around Kharkiv and Kherson last year, this time the enemy has dug in hard: “They basically mined absolutely everything,” said Lieutenant Helena Maksyom of the 15th operational brigade, standing by a bombed-out church in the Zaporizhzhia region.
“It’s a very, very difficult situation with the mines and we really need help with de-mining machines because doing it by hand is incredibly difficult and in this way we lose people,” she said. “But we don’t have any other options.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Heavy fighting continues in the south of Ukraine as neither side makes significant gains

Ukraine says it is slowly grinding forward on the southern and eastern front lines as Russian forces throw "everything they can" at slowing down the counteroffensive. Follow live updates.

www.cnn.com

Along the southern front — seen as perhaps Ukraine’s main strategic priority, with the aim of breaking Russia’s land bridge to Crimea by punching through to the Sea of Azov — reports continue to suggest Ukrainian and Russian forces involved in very heavy fighting.

Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky, commander of the Tavria Joint Forces Operation that is operating on a large section of the southern Ukraine front, told Ukrainian television Saturday morning his soldiers were “systematically driving the enemy from their positions.”

He listed 33 pieces of Russian equipment destroyed in the latest Ukrainian attacks, including armored personnel carriers, artillery pieces and an anti-aircraft missile system, among others. Those encouraging words, from Ukraine’s perspective, are yet to translate into long lists of liberated towns and villages, however.

Russian military blogger Rybar also claimed further Ukrainian pressure on Russian positions near the Zaporizhzhia region village of Robotyne, which is south of Orikhiv in an area that has seen small gains by Ukrainian forces over the last week.

Which side has the advantage? Analyst Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, says it is difficult to measure which side currently holds the upper hand in the absence of significant territorial gains by either.

“Both sides are taking attrition right now … but it is not clear which side can sustain it better,” he told the Geopolitics Decanted podcast.

“On the Russian side, if they take enough losses and Ukraine can isolate parts of the front, (then Ukrainian forces) may be able to achieve a breakthrough. On the flip side, if Ukraine keeps taking losses and more attrition, the offensive might culminate too soon, before they make it to (Russia’s) main defensive lines, which lie another 10 to 15 kilometers (about 6 to 9 miles) to the south,” Lee said.

One part of Ukraine’s current campaign that does seem to be achieving tangible results is strikes on targets behind front lines. These are aimed at disrupting and degrading Russian supply lines as well as targeting Russian command bases and soldiers’ barracks.

In his comments Saturday morning, Tarnavsky told Ukrainian TV viewers that nine Russian ammunition depots had been destroyed in the last day. He did not say where the depots were located, but it is likely they were a substantial distance from the front lines.

Earlier this week, a senior Russian general was killed when a Ukrainian missile hit the base of Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army in the occupied port city of Berdiansk.