*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (1 Viewer)

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2025

Russian forces continue to clear Ukrainian forces from Sudzha and its environs as Russian troops advance closer to the border in Kursk Oblast slowed on March 13 compared to recent days. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 12 that he ordered Ukrainian forces to withdraw from some unspecified positions within the Kursk salient and move to more advantageous defensive positions in Kursk Oblast in order to save Ukrainian lives.

A Russian milblogger continued to claim that renewed Ukrainian HIMARS strikes are slowing the rate of Russian advances south of Sudzha.

Russian forces also marginally advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Russian forces advanced northwest of Basivka (northeast of Sumy City). Syrskyi stated that Russian airborne (VDV) and Spetsnaz forces are attacking along the international border and attempting to advance further into Sumy Oblast.

A Ukrainian source affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence stated on March 13 that Russian forces are using all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) in northern Sumy Oblast and are attempting to leverage their manpower advantage to advance in the area.

Russian milbloggers theorized on March 13 that Russian forces may launch an organized offensive operation into northern Sumy Oblast in the coming weeks and months and may also attack into Chernihiv Oblast — in line with Russian President Vladimir Putin's March 12 statements. One Russian milblogger claimed that an offensive into Sumy Oblast would significantly strengthen Russia's position in future peace negotiations.

Ukraine Hits Moscow With Drones After US Envoy Traveled to Putin

Ukraine will likely have to fully withdraw from territory in Kursk it seized in a surprise August incursion, potentially as soon as within a week, according to an official familiar with a US assessment. Kyiv had hoped those areas could be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Moscow, but Russian forces have been steadily reclaiming the land.

From daring invasion to rapid retreat: the end of Ukraine’s Kursk gambit

Last summer, Artem Kariakin was among the first Ukrainian soldiers to cross the border and capture Russian territory in the Kursk region — in a surprise offensive aimed at strengthening Kyiv’s hand in any talks on ending the war.
Now, as those talks finally begin, he finds himself racing to retreat. With Russian forces closing in on Sudzha, the biggest town Ukraine had captured and where he was based, Kariakin piled gear and fellow troops into a pick-up truck and sped for the border.
“We put a guy in the back with a machine gun to try and shoot down any drones above us, switched on our jammers, crossed ourselves, and set off,” he told the Financial Times. “The main thing was just to get out of there.”

Kariakin, 27, said he continues to cross into the Kursk region every day to evacuate Ukrainian troops — many of whom trek dozens of kilometres on foot to ride out in his truck, as the main road is under constant Russian fire. Still, he said he was not surprised at Russia pushing them out.
“Our problems started long before this,” he said.
Ukraine caught its adversary off guard when it began its incursion on August 6, more than two years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Kyiv’s forces managed at one point to seize some 1,300 sq km of Russian territory. But over the first few weeks the area they were able to hold became a narrow wedge.
“It is no secret that the zone of our incursion, it should have been wider,” Kariakin said. “A wide area along the border would have been much more comfortable.”
Instead, Russian troops surrounded Ukraine’s occupying forces on three sides. It was a precarious position and became increasingly difficult to hold.

The operation’s goals changed on the go, said a person familiar with the original Ukrainian plan for the incursion. Initially, it was intended as a deep but short-term raid, the person said. But then the plan shifted to holding land — exposing Kyiv’s troops to bigger risks.

Kariakin, who hails from a town in the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine that has been occupied by Russia since 2014, said he felt satisfaction but also discomfort finding himself part of an occupying force. “Most of all we wanted to be in the Donbas, fighting for our own land,” he said.
Sudzha, where the Ukrainians set up a command post, remained quiet for the first months of the incursion, Kariakin said. But in battles on the fringes of the Ukrainian-held territory, Russian forces were inching in. Soon, Kyiv’s troops were left with just one road out to Ukraine.
“Russian forces were steadily compressing the pocket and interdicting the main resupply routes,” military analyst Michael Kofman said. “At a certain point, it was simply no longer tenable to sustain these forces.”

“Day X” came in late December, when a vehicle on the single remaining supply road was hit by a Russian drone, Kariakin said.
“Before then, they’d never reached the motorway,” he said. “This was the beginning of the end of our logistics in the Kursk region.” His account was corroborated by at least one other Ukrainian soldier stationed in the area.
From that point on, swarms of drones would target anything that moved on the road, Kariakin said, making it extremely difficult to resupply troops. Medical evacuations soon became almost impossible, he said, and ground forces got stuck in trenches for weeks on end, unable to rotate.

By February, the situation seemed increasingly untenable. “It was getting worse and worse,” Kariakin said. The single road was now under constant Russian fire, and slow and muddy back roads through fields were also getting hit. “Making the journey was always 50-50, and unfortunately not everyone made it,” he said.

 

[Stoneworker]

Actual news-related article from Washington Post...

Here’s what Russia has demanded to end its war in Ukraine

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine loses a ceasefire bargaining chip as its troops cede ground in Russia

Combat is ongoing in the periphery of Sudzha as some Ukrainian soldiers try to fight their way out of Russia’s Kursk region back into the neighboring Sumy region of Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers and commanders fear that Russia’s air superiority will enable them to wipe out the logistics routes vital to sustaining the soldiers who are still in Kursk.

Russia has retaken control of about 70% of the territory Ukraine captured in the first weeks of its August incursion into Kursk, according to the Institute for the Study of War in Washington.

To flee the Kursk region, Ukrainian soldiers must walk dozens of kilometers to get back into Ukraine, while avoiding Russian forces. Some soldiers are angry that commanders did not order them to withdraw weeks ago, when it would have been safer to do so.

Soldiers said their ability to hold Kursk began to deteriorate the moment soldiers from North Korea entered the battle late last year. As time went on, Pyongyang’s troops only became more effective, Ukrainian soldiers said.

When one Ukrainian drone operator spotted some 40 North Korean soldiers near a tree line a few weeks ago, he said he was amazed by the physical fitness of North Korean troops. Some were capable of quickly running long distances carrying heavy ammunition, he said.

“I’ve never seen anything like that before,” he said.

Shortages of manpower, weaponry and ammunition also hampered Ukrainian soldiers, who said that they were outnumbered five to one, on average — and ten to one in some areas.

Over the past three months, the Russians gradually wore down the Ukrainians. Under heavy air assault from the Russians, Ukrainian troops often had to carry on their backs — for 20 or 30 kilometers (12 to 18 miles) reinforcements of ammunition, food and medical supplies.

“By the time they reach the positions, they are completely exhausted,” a Ukrainian sergeant said.

And in another instance, Ukrainian soldiers that had been positioned to the northwest of Sudzha, in Lebedivka, simply abandoned their positions, according to a Ukrainian drone operator.

“Everyone was leaving randomly,” he said, so he eventually left, too.

Top army chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Wednesday he had ordered soldiers to withdraw to more advantageous positions in Kursk, saying preserving the lives of soldiers was his priority.

But some soldiers said it should have happened sooner.

One Ukrainian soldier said he and his comrades defied their company commander’s orders, and made their own decision to retreat.

“We’re sick and tired of sitting under fire all the time,” said the soldier. Because all the main roads are being monitored by Russian drones, he said soldiers are withdrawing in small groups along tree lines to avoid detection.

“All the units that are left there, I don’t know how they (the command) are going to get them out, because all supply chains have been disrupted,” he said, referring to Sudzha and surrounding areas. “The guys who came out said there were a lot of our dead bodies and a lot of burnt equipment.”

Russian forces are closing in on Ukrainian soldiers’ escape routes from the north and south of Sudzha.

Ukraine still controls a sliver of territory in Kursk along the border with Sumy.

Soldiers said attention has shifted to building up defenses along the border to prevent a Russian incursion into Ukrainian territory. Trenches are quickly being dug, but it is not clear if they will be enough.

“It depends on the power we have,” one commander said.

https://x.com/J_JHelin/status/1900255443517387084

Some Ukrainian soldiers compared the withdrawal to Debaltseve (2015).

It’s likely Ukraine abandoned most heavy equipment that was still in the salient due to drone threats over their final supply route.

The number of casualties and lost equipment is still unknown

18/

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1900410245370823020

A Ukrainian soldier who just arrived in Sumy Oblast after withdrawing from Kursk says he walked for four days.

 

[The Z Machine]

Portugal rules out purchasing F-35 fighter jets and evaluates European alternatives

Portugal descarta compra de caças F-35 e avalia alternativas europeias - Poder Aéreo

O ministro da Defesa Nacional de Portugal, Nuno Melo, anunciou que o país não irá adquirir os caças F-35 aos Estados Unidos, considerando o atual contexto geopolítico e a imprevisibilidade da política norte-americana.

www.aereo.jor.br

 

[Chadstroma]

Portugal rules out purchasing F-35 fighter jets and evaluates European alternatives

Portugal descarta compra de caças F-35 e avalia alternativas europeias - Poder Aéreo

O ministro da Defesa Nacional de Portugal, Nuno Melo, anunciou que o país não irá adquirir os caças F-35 aos Estados Unidos, considerando o atual contexto geopolítico e a imprevisibilidade da política norte-americana.

www.aereo.jor.br

You do know that wasn't in English, right?

 

[Don't Toews Me]

What I learnt about the future of war in Ukraine this week

Budanov confirms that Russia has learned to learn much more quickly than it was able to at the beginning of the war. In the past three years, Russia’s intelligence apparatus has improved and has evolved its planning and conduct of long-range strikes to adopt similar methods to NATO. The Russians have also improved their ability to learn from Ukrainian strike operations inside Russia. They have a sophisticated approach that constantly changes the disposition of their air defence network to confuse Budanov’s planners. The Russians have also become adept at using decoys, smoke and fogging machines to confuse those interpreting satellite imagery in the lead-up to, and after, Ukrainian strikes. This holds lessons for potential Australian future operations in the western Pacific.

According to Skibitskyi, the Ukrainians have also seen a fast learning curve from the North Koreans over the past several months. Their tactics have evolved, and they have learned to employ drones and to counter them better. At the same time, North Korean weapons such as the KN23 ballistic missiles have had their accuracy improved by Russian engineers. Once again, this is relevant to our region.

 

[The Z Machine]

Portugal rules out purchasing F-35 fighter jets and evaluates European alternatives

Portugal descarta compra de caças F-35 e avalia alternativas europeias - Poder Aéreo

O ministro da Defesa Nacional de Portugal, Nuno Melo, anunciou que o país não irá adquirir os caças F-35 aos Estados Unidos, considerando o atual contexto geopolítico e a imprevisibilidade da política norte-americana.

www.aereo.jor.br

You do know that wasn't in English, right?

You can't read Portuguese?

 

[Chadstroma]

Portugal rules out purchasing F-35 fighter jets and evaluates European alternatives

Portugal descarta compra de caças F-35 e avalia alternativas europeias - Poder Aéreo

O ministro da Defesa Nacional de Portugal, Nuno Melo, anunciou que o país não irá adquirir os caças F-35 aos Estados Unidos, considerando o atual contexto geopolítico e a imprevisibilidade da política norte-americana.

www.aereo.jor.br

If

You do know that wasn't in English, right?

You can't read Portuguese?

If I did then that would have been one of those weird get brain surgery things and come out speaking another language.

 

[Chadstroma]

What I learnt about the future of war in Ukraine this week

Budanov confirms that Russia has learned to learn much more quickly than it was able to at the beginning of the war. In the past three years, Russia’s intelligence apparatus has improved and has evolved its planning and conduct of long-range strikes to adopt similar methods to NATO. The Russians have also improved their ability to learn from Ukrainian strike operations inside Russia. They have a sophisticated approach that constantly changes the disposition of their air defence network to confuse Budanov’s planners. The Russians have also become adept at using decoys, smoke and fogging machines to confuse those interpreting satellite imagery in the lead-up to, and after, Ukrainian strikes. This holds lessons for potential Australian future operations in the western Pacific.

According to Skibitskyi, the Ukrainians have also seen a fast learning curve from the North Koreans over the past several months. Their tactics have evolved, and they have learned to employ drones and to counter them better. At the same time, North Korean weapons such as the KN23 ballistic missiles have had their accuracy improved by Russian engineers. Once again, this is relevant to our region.

You mean, marching in large formations in the open wasn't tactically working out well?

 

[Chadstroma]

Putin’s demands push ceasefire talks into dead end — WSJ​

Donald Trump, confident that Putin sought peace, convinced Kyiv to back a 30-day ceasefire. However, on March 13, the Russian dictator responded with his own demands, including limits on Ukraine’s mobilization, military training, and Western aid — while continuing operations in Kursk Oblast.

Now, Trump must decide whether to follow through on his promise to sanction Moscow if it rejects the U.S.-led proposal.

"President Trump thinks that a single 'yes' from Vladimir Putin is all that stands between him and a successful ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine," WSJ wrote.

"But Putin is leaning the other way. This puts Trump, the self-proclaimed master dealmaker, in a deadlock of his own making."

On the other hand, the White House is unlikely to welcome the idea of punishing Moscow, as this could create another obstacle to Trump’s broader goal of improving relations with Russia.

Whether Trump will escalate pressure on Russia depends on how he and his advisors conduct negotiations with Moscow in the coming days.

“Instead of outright rejecting the ceasefire, Russian officials are signaling that they may demand concessions even before peace talks begin, putting even more pressure on Trump,” WSJ noted.

A bigger question remains: Is Putin truly as “committed to peace” as Trump has claimed? And are the concessions needed to bring Russia into the peace process worth the risk of losing trust and support from Ukraine and European governments — who fear that Russia will simply resume the war if the deal is not robust enough?

Trump has already hinted that talks have included discussions about a future peace agreement, including potential territorial concessions by Ukraine and control over the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

White House National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes insists that Trump is “focused on one goal: bringing this conflict to a peaceful resolution” by first securing a 30-day ceasefire agreement with Russia.

However, many analysts remain skeptical that Putin will ultimately accept this or any other proposal.

“There is no chance of reaching any agreement with the Russians, and they will reject any deal the U.S. negotiates with Ukraine,” warned Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington.

Meanwhile, Republican senators, including some of Trump’s staunchest allies, are urging him to take action against Russia if Moscow refuses to negotiate.

“Putin deserves far more pressure than Ukraine,” said Senator Mike Rounds, adding that Congress would “undoubtedly” support stronger sanctions against Moscow.

In a joint statement on March 13, Senator Roger Wicker and Congressman Mike Rogers, who chair the Armed Services Committees in the Senate and House of Representatives, called on Trump to “make it clear to Moscow that the cost of prolonging the bloodshed will far exceed anything Putin has experienced so far.”

Senator Lindsey Graham — possibly Trump’s closest confidant in the Senate — wrote on X:

“I am highly skeptical that Russia will accept a ceasefire, and I strongly doubt they want to end this war.”

He suggested that by the end of the week, the U.S. could impose “crippling sanctions and tariffs” against the Kremlin.

So far, however, there are few signs that Trump feels constrained by the skepticism surrounding his peace initiative — whether from his congressional allies or foreign partners. Analysts suggest that Trump operates based on his own instincts and priorities, largely ignoring external opinions.

“The last remaining constraints on presidential power in foreign policy have collapsed,” said Elizabeth Saunders, a professor of international relations at Columbia University.

The next major test for Trump’s foreign policy leadership will be how Republicans react to his approach toward Putin in this “dangerous moment” — especially if he refuses to impose sanctions on Moscow.


“This would be a critical moment for Republican leadership in the Senate — to show that when they talk about the need to support Ukraine and secure a just and lasting peace, they actually mean it,” said Democratic Senator Chris Coons.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukrainian drones strike Tuapse oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, governor says​

Ukrainian drones struck the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai overnight on March 14, setting fire to a gasoline storage tank, regional Governor Veniamin Kondratiev said.

"The area of the fire is more than 1,000 square meters, and emergency services are working," Kondratiev wrote on Telegram, claiming there were no casualties.

Russian pro-government media outlet Mash reported that the fire was caused by debris from a downed drone. Eyewitnesses reportedly heard a series explosions over several minutes.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims. Kyiv has not commented on the attack.

The Tuapse oil refinery, with an annual processing capacity of 12 million tons, plays a key role in supplying fuel to the Russian military. Following an earlier strike, the facility underwent an emergency shutdown in May.

Kyiv has intensified attacks on Russian fossil fuel infrastructure, seeking to disrupt revenue streams that fund Moscow's war effort.

Ukrainian forces regularly conduct long-range drone strikes on military and industrial targets inside Russia.

Earlier this week, 74 drones were shot down on approach to Moscow in the early hours of March 11, authorities claimed, marking the largest drone attack against Russia's capital during the full-scale war.

Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its forces had intercepted a massive strike of 337 Ukrainian drones across multiple regions, including 91 over Moscow Oblast, 126 over Kursk Oblast, 38 over Bryansk Oblast, and others over the Belgorod, Ryazan, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Oryol, Voronezh, and Nizhny Novgorod regions.

This is the largest number of drones launched against Russia in a single attack during the entire full-scale war.

The strike took place as Ukrainian and U.S. delegations were about to meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss possible peace terms with Russia.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russian military maneuvers raise tension near Polish borders​

The Russian military fleet is increasing its activity near the Polish borders. Combat readiness has been heightened in the Kaliningrad Oblast, with over 10 Russian ships appearing in the Baltic Sea.

What do you need to know?​

• Russian military activity: In the Kaliningrad Oblast, a strategic military base for Russia, units have left their barracks. At least 10 Russian ships have set sail into the Baltic Sea.
• Military exercises: Russian media report that these maneuvers are a response to the increased NATO presence in the region, including forces from the United States, Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states.
• Modern weaponry: The Baltic Fleet authorities have announced the deployment of modern weaponry, including advanced Iskander missile systems.

Why is Russia increasing military activity?​

According to information provided by "Fakt," the Russian military exercises are a reaction to the increased NATO presence in the region. In recent months, exercises have been conducted with the participation of American, German, Polish, and Baltic states' forces.

Russian units in the Baltic have conducted simulations of repelling a landing in the Kaliningrad Oblast, aiming to demonstrate readiness to defend against potential threats.

What are the goals of the Russian maneuvers?​

As reported by "Fakt," Russian media emphasize that the Baltic Fleet maneuvers are preparations for repelling missile attacks and eliminating hostile ships. The operation in the Baltic Sea involved various units, including small missile ships, landing ships, minesweepers, as well as aircraft and naval aviation helicopters. Russia seeks to maintain the narrative of a growing threat from NATO.

Russia's plan: further strengthening of military potential​

Russian media warn that the presence of NATO forces in the Baltic represents a threat, to which Moscow intends to respond by strengthening its military potential in the Kaliningrad Oblast. The deployment of additional advanced missile systems, including Iskanders capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is planned.

 

[fatness]

Russian military maneuvers raise tension near Polish borders​

The Russian military fleet is increasing its activity near the Polish borders. Combat readiness has been heightened in the Kaliningrad Oblast, with over 10 Russian ships appearing in the Baltic Sea.

What do you need to know?​

• Russian military activity: In the Kaliningrad Oblast, a strategic military base for Russia, units have left their barracks. At least 10 Russian ships have set sail into the Baltic Sea.
• Military exercises: Russian media report that these maneuvers are a response to the increased NATO presence in the region, including forces from the United States, Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states.
• Modern weaponry: The Baltic Fleet authorities have announced the deployment of modern weaponry, including advanced Iskander missile systems.

Why is Russia increasing military activity?​

According to information provided by "Fakt," the Russian military exercises are a reaction to the increased NATO presence in the region. In recent months, exercises have been conducted with the participation of American, German, Polish, and Baltic states' forces.

Russian units in the Baltic have conducted simulations of repelling a landing in the Kaliningrad Oblast, aiming to demonstrate readiness to defend against potential threats.

What are the goals of the Russian maneuvers?​

As reported by "Fakt," Russian media emphasize that the Baltic Fleet maneuvers are preparations for repelling missile attacks and eliminating hostile ships. The operation in the Baltic Sea involved various units, including small missile ships, landing ships, minesweepers, as well as aircraft and naval aviation helicopters. Russia seeks to maintain the narrative of a growing threat from NATO.

Russia's plan: further strengthening of military potential​

Russian media warn that the presence of NATO forces in the Baltic represents a threat, to which Moscow intends to respond by strengthening its military potential in the Kaliningrad Oblast. The deployment of additional advanced missile systems, including Iskanders capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is planned.

My nephew has lived in Poland for about 6-7 years now, and in explaining of Poland and its people to me has said that this has been a constant worry among Polish people --- fear of another Russian attempt at a takeover.

 

[fatness]

Exclusive: China state firms curb Russian oil imports on sanctions risks, sources say

Russian Oil Delivery Takes Seven Times Longer After Sanctions

 

[The Z Machine]

Russian military maneuvers raise tension near Polish borders​

The Russian military fleet is increasing its activity near the Polish borders. Combat readiness has been heightened in the Kaliningrad Oblast, with over 10 Russian ships appearing in the Baltic Sea.

What do you need to know?​

• Russian military activity: In the Kaliningrad Oblast, a strategic military base for Russia, units have left their barracks. At least 10 Russian ships have set sail into the Baltic Sea.
• Military exercises: Russian media report that these maneuvers are a response to the increased NATO presence in the region, including forces from the United States, Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states.
• Modern weaponry: The Baltic Fleet authorities have announced the deployment of modern weaponry, including advanced Iskander missile systems.

Why is Russia increasing military activity?​

According to information provided by "Fakt," the Russian military exercises are a reaction to the increased NATO presence in the region. In recent months, exercises have been conducted with the participation of American, German, Polish, and Baltic states' forces.

Russian units in the Baltic have conducted simulations of repelling a landing in the Kaliningrad Oblast, aiming to demonstrate readiness to defend against potential threats.

What are the goals of the Russian maneuvers?​

As reported by "Fakt," Russian media emphasize that the Baltic Fleet maneuvers are preparations for repelling missile attacks and eliminating hostile ships. The operation in the Baltic Sea involved various units, including small missile ships, landing ships, minesweepers, as well as aircraft and naval aviation helicopters. Russia seeks to maintain the narrative of a growing threat from NATO.

Russia's plan: further strengthening of military potential​

Russian media warn that the presence of NATO forces in the Baltic represents a threat, to which Moscow intends to respond by strengthening its military potential in the Kaliningrad Oblast. The deployment of additional advanced missile systems, including Iskanders capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is planned.

Look if Russia wants to put weapons systems in a non-combat space while those same systems could be of use in a hot combat zone, I'm all for it.

 

[rockaction]

Russian military maneuvers raise tension near Polish borders​

The Russian military fleet is increasing its activity near the Polish borders. Combat readiness has been heightened in the Kaliningrad Oblast, with over 10 Russian ships appearing in the Baltic Sea.

What do you need to know?​

• Russian military activity: In the Kaliningrad Oblast, a strategic military base for Russia, units have left their barracks. At least 10 Russian ships have set sail into the Baltic Sea.
• Military exercises: Russian media report that these maneuvers are a response to the increased NATO presence in the region, including forces from the United States, Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states.
• Modern weaponry: The Baltic Fleet authorities have announced the deployment of modern weaponry, including advanced Iskander missile systems.

Why is Russia increasing military activity?​

According to information provided by "Fakt," the Russian military exercises are a reaction to the increased NATO presence in the region. In recent months, exercises have been conducted with the participation of American, German, Polish, and Baltic states' forces.

Russian units in the Baltic have conducted simulations of repelling a landing in the Kaliningrad Oblast, aiming to demonstrate readiness to defend against potential threats.

What are the goals of the Russian maneuvers?​

As reported by "Fakt," Russian media emphasize that the Baltic Fleet maneuvers are preparations for repelling missile attacks and eliminating hostile ships. The operation in the Baltic Sea involved various units, including small missile ships, landing ships, minesweepers, as well as aircraft and naval aviation helicopters. Russia seeks to maintain the narrative of a growing threat from NATO.

Russia's plan: further strengthening of military potential​

Russian media warn that the presence of NATO forces in the Baltic represents a threat, to which Moscow intends to respond by strengthening its military potential in the Kaliningrad Oblast. The deployment of additional advanced missile systems, including Iskanders capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is planned.

My nephew has lived in Poland for about 6-7 years now, and in explaining of Poland and its people to me has said that this has been a constant worry among Polish people --- fear of another Russian attempt at a takeover.

Has anybody looked at a map and seen where Kaliningrad is and why it might be of concern to Poland and Lithuania, both NATO members?

This is a powder keg waiting to happen. Poland to the South and Lithuania to the North should be deeply concerned about this, especially since Putin has stated in his writings and interviews that Poland was the reason WWII started. Not Germany and Russia, but Poland.

 

[rockaction]

Look if Russia wants to put weapons systems in a non-combat space while those same systems could be of use in a hot combat zone, I'm all for it.

Again, I'd urge you to look at a map. Just having them there is troublesome. More troublesome than if they were used against Ukraine in combat.

 

[The Z Machine]

Look if Russia wants to put weapons systems in a non-combat space while those same systems could be of use in a hot combat zone, I'm all for it.

Again, I'd urge you to look at a map. Just having them there is troublesome. More troublesome than if they were used against Ukraine in combat.

Oh I know where that exclave is. Sure it's menacing, but like I said, I'd prefer for Russia to take firepower and manpower away from the Ukraine front and putting where it's not currently being used. If Russia attacked Poland, Lithuania, or Germany from that exclave, they would trigger the full force of NATO (assuming Trump defends them).

Germany is waking up and while it may take years, i would not underestimate their ability to rearm and build a formidable defensive force. Rhinemetal has been acquiring other defense contractors for the last 10 years, and a significant investment from the German government would see production capabilities ramp up quickly.

 

[rockaction]

Oh I know where that exclave is.

I was pretty sure you did. That was for other people, really. Think of "you" in the general sense.

If Russia attacked Poland, Lithuania, or Germany from that exclave, they would trigger the full force of NATO (assuming Trump defends them).

Yes. It would be an Article Five violation. The question is what the U.S. would do, as you pointed out in your parenthetical aside.

 

[rockaction]

Again, I can't really speak freely or it gets political. I'll just wait for Toews and Stroma to post links. But I was agreeing that from what I've read (the Atlantic had quite a good article behind a paywall about Kaliningrad and why it was so important), and when I see Kaliningrad mentioned, I feel like I know enough about location and how it's really a tender area. It's like Danzig in WWII.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russian military maneuvers raise tension near Polish borders​

The Russian military fleet is increasing its activity near the Polish borders. Combat readiness has been heightened in the Kaliningrad Oblast, with over 10 Russian ships appearing in the Baltic Sea.

What do you need to know?​

• Russian military activity: In the Kaliningrad Oblast, a strategic military base for Russia, units have left their barracks. At least 10 Russian ships have set sail into the Baltic Sea.
• Military exercises: Russian media report that these maneuvers are a response to the increased NATO presence in the region, including forces from the United States, Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states.
• Modern weaponry: The Baltic Fleet authorities have announced the deployment of modern weaponry, including advanced Iskander missile systems.

Why is Russia increasing military activity?​

According to information provided by "Fakt," the Russian military exercises are a reaction to the increased NATO presence in the region. In recent months, exercises have been conducted with the participation of American, German, Polish, and Baltic states' forces.

Russian units in the Baltic have conducted simulations of repelling a landing in the Kaliningrad Oblast, aiming to demonstrate readiness to defend against potential threats.

What are the goals of the Russian maneuvers?​

As reported by "Fakt," Russian media emphasize that the Baltic Fleet maneuvers are preparations for repelling missile attacks and eliminating hostile ships. The operation in the Baltic Sea involved various units, including small missile ships, landing ships, minesweepers, as well as aircraft and naval aviation helicopters. Russia seeks to maintain the narrative of a growing threat from NATO.

Russia's plan: further strengthening of military potential​

Russian media warn that the presence of NATO forces in the Baltic represents a threat, to which Moscow intends to respond by strengthening its military potential in the Kaliningrad Oblast. The deployment of additional advanced missile systems, including Iskanders capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is planned.

My nephew has lived in Poland for about 6-7 years now, and in explaining of Poland and its people to me has said that this has been a constant worry among Polish people --- fear of another Russian attempt at a takeover.

Through it's entire existence it has basically been a hot potato between Russia and Germany. With Germany and ally and the quasi occupation after WWII freshest on their national consciousness they are probably the third most fearful of Russia after Ukraine and the Baltics.

They have been going on a military spending spree... a bunch of K2 tanks and K9 self propelled howitzer, M1A2's, Apache attack helicopters, HIMARs, modernization of their F-16's, F-35's, and on and on.

3.8% of its GDP and 14th most spent in the world on it's military.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russian military maneuvers raise tension near Polish borders​

The Russian military fleet is increasing its activity near the Polish borders. Combat readiness has been heightened in the Kaliningrad Oblast, with over 10 Russian ships appearing in the Baltic Sea.

What do you need to know?​

• Russian military activity: In the Kaliningrad Oblast, a strategic military base for Russia, units have left their barracks. At least 10 Russian ships have set sail into the Baltic Sea.
• Military exercises: Russian media report that these maneuvers are a response to the increased NATO presence in the region, including forces from the United States, Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states.
• Modern weaponry: The Baltic Fleet authorities have announced the deployment of modern weaponry, including advanced Iskander missile systems.

Why is Russia increasing military activity?​

According to information provided by "Fakt," the Russian military exercises are a reaction to the increased NATO presence in the region. In recent months, exercises have been conducted with the participation of American, German, Polish, and Baltic states' forces.

Russian units in the Baltic have conducted simulations of repelling a landing in the Kaliningrad Oblast, aiming to demonstrate readiness to defend against potential threats.

What are the goals of the Russian maneuvers?​

As reported by "Fakt," Russian media emphasize that the Baltic Fleet maneuvers are preparations for repelling missile attacks and eliminating hostile ships. The operation in the Baltic Sea involved various units, including small missile ships, landing ships, minesweepers, as well as aircraft and naval aviation helicopters. Russia seeks to maintain the narrative of a growing threat from NATO.

Russia's plan: further strengthening of military potential​

Russian media warn that the presence of NATO forces in the Baltic represents a threat, to which Moscow intends to respond by strengthening its military potential in the Kaliningrad Oblast. The deployment of additional advanced missile systems, including Iskanders capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is planned.

Look if Russia wants to put weapons systems in a non-combat space while those same systems could be of use in a hot combat zone, I'm all for it.

Though they can't really do much with their Navy... thus the use to try to flex their muscles even as they can't lift the weights they already have.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Samp-T batteries are without missiles, the Ukrainians are pressing Italy and France

The two Samp-T anti-aircraft batteries that Italy and France delivered to the Ukrainians have practically exhausted the missile stockpile. Shortly, therefore, they will become unusable. For weeks now, Volodymyr Zelensky's government has been asking the two countries to send more shells, the Aster-30s. At least fifty would be needed. The problem is that the Italian reserve has almost reached the alert level. The remaining missiles are used to ensure the protection of sensitive targets on the national territory. The French, on the other hand, would have more.

If peace comes, Putin could face the ire of his most hard-line backers

The so-called “turbopatriots” have played an important role throughout the conflict. Many fought on the front lines and were rewarded with an increased social status in wartime Russian society. For decades regarded by the Kremlin as a volatile source of potential opposition, these ultranationalist figures were harnessed to advance the government’s message on the necessity of the bloody, grinding war.
But they have also emerged as a rare source of criticism of both Putin and his government’s decision-making, and some had to be dealt with when they went too far.

A senior Kremlin official admitted that there will “definitely be those who are unhappy” with Russia’s normalization of a bilateral dialogue with the United States. “This is a very, very convinced part of the society.”
“There is a significant part of society who say they are afraid and will not be satisfied with the security guarantees, if Ukraine simply continues to exist,” he added, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters more freely. He said this segment would need to be persuaded about the benefits of rapprochement.

The confusion has been felt especially keenly along the front, where many Russian soldiers believe that rather than just taking on the Ukrainians, they have been fighting a war against NATO and the United States, having experienced firsthand the devastating impact of U.S.-provided weapons to Ukraine.

A former Putin aide said that hard-line nationalists in the military and security services saw “enemies everywhere” but had little influence within the Kremlin and would not prevent Putin’s moves to reestablish diplomatic ties with Washington or negotiate on a peace deal.
“No one in the Kremlin is listening to these parts of society,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “They use them when they need them for propaganda, but in reality they have very little real influence.”
Though there is a small chance such radicals could later foment opposition to a potential peace deal, they still represent a minority, said Alexei Venediktov, editor in chief of Ekho Moskvy radio station. The majority of Russians remain indifferent, and ready to support whatever Putin decides.

Putin unlikely to accept peacekeepers, says ex-Russian PM

President Putin would not accept peacekeepers from Nato or European nations, a former Russian prime minister has said.

Mikhail Kasyanov, who served under Putin between 2000 and 2004 before becoming an opposition leader, told the BBC’s Today programme that Putin wanted a conditional ceasefire “on his terms”.

Asked if Putin would accept a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, Kasyanov replied: “I don’t believe this, but he could accept if his terms and conditions are accepted, for instance the stop of military supplies, he could agree to just Indians and Brazilians and other friendly countries, troops from those countries but not from Nato nations or from Europe at all.”

Italy PM Says No Plans For Italian Soldiers On Ground In Ukraine

Italy does not envision sending soldiers to Ukraine, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Saturday, following a virtual summit hosted by Britain to drum up support to protect any eventual ceasefire.

"The Prime Minister confirmed that Italy intends to continue working with European and Western partners and with the United States to define credible and effective security guarantees, reiterating that national participation in a possible military force on the ground is not envisaged," the government said in a statement Saturday.

More here:

Italy would want a “clear UN mandate” before committing troops to a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, a member of Italy’s ruling party has said.

Giangiacomo Calovini, an MP from the ruling Brothers of Italy party and a member of the Italian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme his country was not opposed to peacekeeping operations.

He said:

Absolutely we are not against sending Italian troops to help a population, but I think at this moment probably there are no troops that are able to solve the problem in Ukraine.

We can only send troops if there is a clear UN mandate and for now, this is impossible.”

He added:

I think it is too early and we have to wait for it. After a decision from UN headquarters, there is no problem for Italy, but now it’s really, really too early for us.”

The Things They Left Behind: Retreating From Kursk, The Ukrainians Abandoned Some Of Their Best Weapons.

Starving for supplies and in danger of being cut off, the retreating Ukrainians moved quickly, apparently under the cover of darkness. Whatever heavy equipment they couldn’t take with them, they simply abandoned—effectively leaving them for the Russians to seize.

In 37 months of hard fighting, culminating in the grinding battle in Kursk, the Ukrainians have lost at least 55 M-777s. The gun the Russians captured while retaking the oblast may be the first intact M-777 in Russian hands.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2025

Consistent Ukrainian strikes against Russian air defense assets are reportedly allowing Ukrainian long-range drones to increasingly penetrate the Russian air defense umbrella in deep rear areas, including in Moscow Oblast. Krasnodar Krai authorities reported that Ukrainian drone strikes hit the Tuapse Oil Refinery overnight and caused a fire at one of the oil tanks that burned an area of over 1,000 square meters. Geolocated footage published on March 14 shows a burning oil depot in Tuapse. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko stated that the Tuapse Oil Refinery is one of Russia's largest refineries and can process up to 12 million tons of oil per year, supporting Russian military needs in southern Russia and in the Black Sea.

Sources in Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) told Ukrainian state-news outlet Ukrinform on March 14 that SBU drones recently struck gas compressor stations in Saratov and Tambov oblasts and a storage facility for S-300/S-400 air defense missiles near Radkovka, Belgorod Oblast.

Kovalenko suggested that Russian authorities have concentrated air defense systems around Moscow City at the expense of other areas in Russia due to a significant shortage of radars and air defense systems. Kovalenko noted that Ukrainian drone strikes have destroyed a significant number of air defense systems and radars both along the front line and within rear areas in Russia and in occupied Ukraine, highlighting that tactical Ukrainian drone strikes have likely significantly degraded Russia's ability to effectively defend strategic-level military and industrial assets in deep rear areas.

https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1900904764621103349

A fire at Russia's Tuapse oil refinery following a Ukrainian strike is visible in new satellite imagery.

This refinery has been targeted by Ukraine (at least) three times since Russia's full-scale invasion.

Russia attacks Ukraine with 178 drones overnight, targets energy infrastructure

Ukrainian defense forces intercepted 130 out of the 178 Russian attack drones launched at Ukraine during an overnight assault on March 14 that included attacks on energy infrastructure.

The attack involved two Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from Kursk Oblast and 178 Shahed-type attack drones along with various decoy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), according to Ukraine's Air Force.

The wave of attacks began at 7:30 p.m. local time on March 14 and continued throughout the night. Russia launched the drones from multiple locations including Orel, Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia, as well as Chauda in occupied Crimea.

The Air Force reported that it shot down 130 Shahed-type strike drones and other UAVs over fourteen Ukrainian regions including Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts.

Russians attack energy facilities in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts

Russian forces have launched a large-scale attack on energy facilities belonging to DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, leaving some residents without electricity.

Details: The company said that the Russians had caused significant damage to energy facilities in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, cutting some residents off from the power grid.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Macron: Moscow has no say if Kyiv wants allied troops in Ukraine

French President Emmanuel Macron said Saturday that if Kyiv asked for foreign troops to come to Ukraine to guarantee any ceasefire, Russia would have no say in the matter.

“If Ukraine asks allied forces to be on its territory, it is not up to Russia to accept or not,” Macron said in comments to the French regional press.

Source

Yuri Ushakov, a senior foreign policy aide to Putin, said in an interview with state television aired on Sunday said Moscow views the proposed 30-day ceasefire is “an attempt to give a break to Ukrainian troops who are now enduring difficult times."

"Russian troops are on the offensive on all fronts," Ushakov said in comments that appear to have been recorded on Thursday when Witkoff was in Moscow. "And in this situation we can view it as a sort of attempt to give time to Ukrainian troops time to rearm and regroup."

Russian troops battle last Ukrainian forces in Kursk region

Battlefield maps from both Ukraine and Russia showed two joined pockets of Ukrainian forces on the Russian side of the border in Kursk. Russia said it was clearing large numbers of mines in the area.

The influential Two Majors pro-Russian military blogger said the battlefield gains of Russian forces had allowed Russia to threaten Sumy, but cautioned that Ukrainian forces had been bolstering defences there for some time.

Russia readying to attack Sumy as Donbas front stabilizes, Zelensky says

Russian soldiers are amassing at the border to prepare to launch an attack on Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 15.

Zelensky said in a post on Telegram that Ukraine has observed areas along its eastern border where the Russian army is amassing force. "This speaks to a desire to deliver a strike to our Sumy Oblast," Zelensky wrote. "We understand this and will take countermeasures."

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2025

Russian forces continued offensive operations in Kursk Oblast but have not completely pushed Ukrainian forces out of the area as of this publication. Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in western Basivka (northeast of Sumy City in Sumy Oblast).

Ukrainian officials expressed concern about Russian ground operations in northern Sumy Oblast but doubt Russia's ability to conduct an effective concerted offensive operation against Sumy City. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Russian military is accumulating forces along Ukraine's eastern border, indicating Russia's interest in "striking" Sumy Oblast. Zelensky may be referring to Russian efforts to advance far enough into northern Sumy Oblast to get within artillery range of Sumy City. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko stated that Russian forces are preparing for more "active actions" in the Sumy Oblast border area and to "strike" Sumy Oblast but not conduct an offensive operation against Sumy City. Ukrainian officials stated that Russian assault groups and sabotage and renaissance groups continue to operate along the Sumy Oblast border and are attempting to advance into Ukraine.

The Kremlin is likely preparing to intensify a narrative that accuses Ukrainian forces of war crimes in Kursk Oblast in an attempt to discredit the Ukrainian military, erode Western support for Ukraine, and spoil or delay straightforward discussions about the 30-day ceasefire that US President Donald Trump proposed to Putin. Russian President Vladimir Putin, other facets of the Russian government, Russian state media, and pro-Kremlin mouthpieces have recently intensified claims accusing Ukrainian forces of committing war crimes in Kursk Oblast during their seven-month incursion.

Putin likely intends to use this narrative falsely portraying Ukrainian forces as brutal war criminals - as the Kremlin did in late 2021 and 2022 to justify Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine - to spoil or delay discussions about a 30-day ceasefire, especially when contrasted with Putin's efforts to portray himself as a merciful leader. Russian ultranationalist voices used Putin's and Russian state media's allegations of Ukrainian war crimes to support their calls for Russia to reject any ceasefire in Ukraine whatsoever and to justify the brutal treatment of Ukrainian forces on the battlefield.

Russia Overpowers Bold Ukrainian Military Venture in Kursk

Ukraine had hoped to cling onto territory in Kursk as a bargaining chip in peace talks, but Ukrainian officials said it was necessary to pull out to preserve lives.

“The military command is doing what it should, preserving as many lives as possible of our warriors,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters Wednesday.

Critics of the operation said the withdrawal proved it was a wasteful folly that squandered some of Ukraine’s best troops and their U.S.-supplied armored vehicles, sorely needed on other fronts in Ukraine.

But some analysts said Ukraine, outnumbered and outgunned by its giant neighbor, was justified in trying something unorthodox.

“What is one bad option among a host of bad options?” said Nick Reynolds, research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “Ukraine has been faced with dilemma after dilemma.”
The operation, Ukrainian officials said, achieved some of its original aims: proving to Ukrainians and Western backers that the military can still launch offensives, forestalling an anticipated Russian invasion in the same area and capturing soldiers to swap with Ukrainian prisoners languishing in inhumane conditions in Russian prisons.

As Ukraine pulled back in Kursk, it has stabilized key parts of the front line in eastern Ukraine, pushing Russia back from the embattled city of Pokrovsk and counterattacking in the eastern city of Toretsk, which Russia had been on the verge of capturing.

In one battle, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces fought off waves of North Korean soldiers for eight hours, eventually running low on ammo and withdrawing after taking a prisoner who later died of his wounds.

There were North Koreans everywhere, recalled one Ukrainian soldier who took part in the battle. “It was impossible to count them,” he said. “There were too many of them.”

North Korean soldiers withdrew to regroup, reappearing again in January with improved battlefield tactics. Now, they were capable of both attacking in small groups in the style of the Russian army and in large units, which strained Ukrainian resources.

Critical to the advance was a new kind of drone that Russia has deployed in increasing numbers in recent months. Guided via fiber optic cable, the drones are impervious to Ukrainian electronic jamming. With Ukrainian positions pushed back, Russia was able to deploy some of its best drone operators, who would move closer than usual to the front lines to reach targets deeper in Ukraine’s rear, Ukrainian troops said.

By early March, Ukrainian forces couldn’t move equipment in or out of Kursk without being targeted by a hail of Russian fire, making systematic evacuation of the wounded or reinforcement near impossible.

“Kursk region is collapsing because it’s really tough to reach our positions,” one Ukrainian soldier wrote in a text message. The Russians, he said, “are destroying everything.”

Russians take control of Sudzha – DeepState

The DeepState project and maps of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicate that Russian troops have taken over the town of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which had been under Ukrainian control since August 2024.

Ukraine confirms withdrawal from Sudzha in Russia's Kursk Oblast

Ukraine's General Staff on March 16 confirmed Ukrainian troops' withdrawal from the logistics hub of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk Oblast, days after Moscow claimed its capture.

Without confirming the withdrawal with a statement, the General Staff posted the latest battlefield maps on social media, which showed a complete retreat from Sudzha.

The confirmation comes as Russian troops scale up their offensive in the Russian border region, where Ukraine launched a surprise cross-border incursion in August 2024 in hopes of using the captured territories as a bargaining chip for potential peace negotiations.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Retreats From All but a Sliver of Land in Russia’s Kursk Region

At the height of the offensive, Ukrainian forces controlled some 500 square miles of Russian territory. By Sunday, they were clinging to a narrow strip of land along the Russian-Ukrainian border, covering barely 30 square miles, according to Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group.
“The end of the battle is coming,” Mr. Paroinen said in a phone interview.

The continuing fighting in Kursk is now less about holding Russian territory, Ukrainian soldiers said, and more about controlling the best defensive positions to prevent the Russians from pushing into the Sumy region of Ukraine and opening a new front in the war.
“We continue to hold positions on the Kursk front,” an assault platoon commander, who asked to be identified only by his call sign, Boroda, said by phone. “The only difference is that our positions have shifted significantly closer to the border.”

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1900897419354632440

Ukraine has officially fielded a 1000km (620 mi) range variant of the Neptune cruise missile, and has used it in combat for the first time.

This new variant gives Ukraine a domestically produced cruise missile with nearly double the range of the Franco-British Storm Shadow.

In Russia and Ukraine, several drone attacks overnight

Russia and Ukraine continued their air attacks overnight from Saturday to Sunday, according to statements from each side this morning.

The Russian Defense Ministry said its air defense units destroyed 31 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory, including 16 in the southwestern Voronezh region, nine in the Belgorod region and the rest in the Rostov and Kursk regions. In the Belgorod region, three people were injured, including a 7-year-old child, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced on the Telegram app.

In Ukraine, authorities reported several Russian drone strikes, including in the northern Chernihiv region, where firefighters were battling a fire in a building on Sunday morning, according to Ukraine's emergency service. Ukrainian media also reported that a series of explosions had taken place in the Kyiv region.

Russian ballistic missile crashes in Chernihiv Oblast

A Russian ballistic missile, likely an Iskander, crashed outside a populated area in the Semenivka hromada during an air raid on the morning of 16 March. [A hromada is an administrative unit designating a village, several villages, or a town, and their adjacent territories – ed.]

Russian forces have launched nearly 300 drones of various types on Zaporizhzhia Oblast in 24 hours

Russian forces have attacked populated areas of Zaporizhzhia Oblast with 289 drones of various modifications over the past 24 hours.

Key Russian oil refinery still burning 24 hours after drone attack

A fire at a Russian oil refinery that came under Ukrainian attack was still on fire after more than a day later, authorities said overnight.

Nearly 200 firefighters were fighting the blaze at the Tuapse plant in the Kransnodar region, near the Black Sea.

The fire, which was sparked by a Ukrainian drone attack on Friday morning, was contained but not extinguished, the region's administration said late on Saturday.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb Headed To Ukraine For Its Second Try At Combat: Report

Ukraine is set to receive an enhanced version of the GLSDB that should be more resilient against the effects of Russian jamming. Ukraine is set to receive an enhanced version of the GLSDB that should be more resilient against the effects of Russian jamming.

www.twz.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

'Everything is finished': Ukrainian troops relive retreat from Kursk

Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Russia's Kursk region have described scenes "like a horror movie" as they retreated from the front lines.

The BBC has received extensive accounts from Ukrainian troops, who recount a "catastrophic" withdrawal in the face of heavy fire, and columns of military equipment destroyed and constant attacks from swarms of Russian drones.

The soldiers, who spoke over social media, were given aliases to protect their identity. Some gave accounts of a "collapse" as Ukraine lost Sudzha, the largest town it held.

On 9 March, "Volodymyr" sent a Telegram post to the BBC saying he was still in Sudzha, where there was "panic and collapse of the front".

Ukrainian troops "are trying to leave - columns of troops and equipment. Some of them are burned by Russian drones on the road. It is impossible to leave during the day."

Movement of men, logistics and equipment had been reliant on one major route between Sudzha and Ukraine's Sumy region.

Volodymyr said it was possible to travel on that road relatively safely a month ago. By 9 March it was "all under the fire control of the enemy - drones around the clock. In one minute you can see two to three drones. That's a lot," he said.

"We have all the logistics here on one Sudzha-Sumy highway. And everyone knew that the [Russians] would try to cut it. But this again came as a surprise to our command."

At the time of writing, just before Russia retook Sudzha, Volodymyr said Ukrainian forces were being pressed from three sides.

The situation on that day, 11 March, was described as "catastrophic" by "Anton".

The third soldier spoken to by the BBC was serving in the headquarters for the Kursk front.

He too highlighted the damage caused by Russian FPV drones. "We used to have an advantage in drones, now we do not," he said. He added that Russia had an advantage with more accurate air strikes and a greater number of troops.

Anton said supply routes had been cut. "Logistics no longer work – organised deliveries of weapons, ammunition, food and water are no longer possible."

Anton said he managed to leave Sudzha by foot, at night – "We almost died several times. Drones are in the sky all the time."

The soldier predicted Ukraine's entire foothold in Kursk would be lost but that "from a military point of view, the Kursk direction has exhausted itself. There is no point in keeping it any more".

In social media posts on 11-12 March, a fourth solider, "Dmytro" likened the retreat from the front to "a scene from a horror movie".

"The roads are littered with hundreds of destroyed cars, armoured vehicles and ATVs (All Terrain Vehicles). There are a lot of wounded and dead."

Vehicles were often hunted by multiple drones, he said.

He described his own narrow escape when the car he was travelling in got bogged down. He and his fellow soldiers were trying to push the vehicle free when they were targeted by another FPV drone.

It missed the vehicle, but injured one of his comrades. He said they had to hide in a forest for two hours before they were rescued.

Dmytro said many Ukrainians retreated on foot with "guys walking 15km to 20km". The situation, he said, had turned from "difficult and critical to catastrophic".

In a message on 14 March, Dmytro added: "Everything is finished in the Kursk region... the operation was not successful."

He estimated that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers had died since the first crossing into Russia in August.

How Ukraine’s Offensive in Russia’s Kursk Region Unraveled

The soldiers said they are trying to set up strong defensive positions along ridgelines on the Russian side of the border.
“We continue to hold positions on the Kursk front,” said Boroda, the assault platoon commander. “The only difference is that our positions have shifted significantly closer to the border.”
Andrii, a Ukrainian intelligence officer fighting in Kursk, put it more bluntly: “The Kursk operation is essentially over” he said. “Now we need to stabilize the situation.”

Ukraine had dispatched some of its most experienced brigades to the Kursk operation, but months of unrelenting assaults by Russian forces and the thousands of North Korean troops fighting alongside them were taking a growing toll.
While the North Korean troops had withdrawn from the battlefield in January to regroup, they returned to the fight in early February. And Ukrainian soldiers said their combat skills had improved.
“Many of them executed very smart tactical maneuvers,” said Boroda, the platoon commander.

Other Ukrainian soldiers, who like Boroda asked to be identified only by their first name or call sign in accordance with military protocol, described Russian forces using attack drones for ambushes.
“Their drones would land near key supply routes and wait for a target to pass by,” said Cap, a 36-year-old Special Operations Forces fighter who asked to be identified by his call sign.
Russian drones were also hitting pre-placed explosives to destroy bridges in Kursk, to try to make it harder for Ukrainian troops to retreat, Ukrainian soldiers said.
Russian warplanes also attacked bridges, in one case dropping a 6,000-pound guided bomb to cut off one major artery, according to Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts.
Artem, a senior Ukrainian brigade commander, said that the destruction of the bridges was one of the key reasons Kyiv’s forces had to abandon positions so suddenly in recent weeks. Not everyone made it out, but most did, he said.

Then on March 8, Russian troops made a breakthrough, sneaking behind Ukrainian lines by walking for miles through a disused gas pipeline to stage a surprise attack. Russian propagandists and officials cast the operation as a heroic feat, while Ukrainian sources called it a risky move that they claimed had led to many deaths caused by residual methane in the pipeline.
While the exact number of Russian troops involved and the success of the attack was impossible to independently confirm, “it caused enough confusion and havoc behind Ukrainian lines that it likely triggered them to start withdrawing,” said Mr. Paroinen from Black Bird Group, which analyzes satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield.
The Russians “outplayed us a bit,” Andrii said. “There was a little panic.”

Some Ukrainian soldiers burned their own equipment to prevent it from falling into Russian hands before hiking out, soldiers said.
On March 10, the order was issued for some units to withdraw from Sudzha, three Ukrainian soldiers and commanders said.
“It was a mix of organized and chaotic retreat,” Boroda said. “Various factors influenced the nature of the withdrawal: fatigue, good or poor orders from individual commanders, miscommunication or well-established coordination.”

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2025

An assault company commander in the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) claimed on March 16 that Ukrainian drones continue to present a significant challenge for Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. The Russian commander claimed that withdrawing Ukrainian forces are operating 300-400 drones in the brigade's area of responsibility (AoR) and that Russian recruits need better anti-drone training to prepare them to counter Ukrainian drones. The commander suggested that Ukrainian forces maintain "low-altitude air superiority" in Kursk Oblast despite Russian forces having established air superiority at higher altitudes using traditional systems, a phenomenon which appears to be common along a large portion of the frontline. ISW previously noted that military forces may struggle to establish and maintain low-altitude air superiority as low-altitude drone threats become increasingly prevalent in modern warfare.

Ukrainian forces appear to be conducting a tactical strike campaign against Russian air defense systems along the frontline in Russia and occupied Ukraine. The commander of a Ukrainian drone regiment reported on March 15 that Ukrainian forces have damaged a significant number of Russian air defense systems along the frontline, forcing Russian forces to either replace or repair the frontline systems. The commander stated that Russian air defense redeployments are creating "holes" in Russia's air defense umbrella that Ukraine can leverage to conduct successful strikes on Russian targets. The Ukrainian drone regiment reported on March 15 that it has destroyed four Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems worth an estimated $56 million over an unspecified period.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Trump says he will be speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday

President Donald Trump said he will likely be speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday while speaking with reporters on Air Force One Sunday night.

What the coalition of the willing has agreed for Ukraine’s ceasefire

Sir Keir Starmer thrashed out plans for a western peacekeeping force of more than 10,000 troops for Ukraine yesterday at a virtual meeting of the “coalition of the willing”.
Two minehunter ships, which were transferred from the Royal Navy to Ukraine’s fleet last year, are also taking part in training exercises, ready to be deployed to the Black Sea in the event of a ceasefire.
They have been unable to enter during the war because the Bosphorus Strait has been closed.
Senior government sources said the prime minister has won the backing of “considerably more” than the three countries that originally offered to supply ground troops, though the bulk of the force is likely to come from Britain and France.

A military source said the size of the final force would be “comfortably north of 10,000”. About 35 countries have agreed to supply weapons, logistical and intelligence support to the mission, which is described as a “tripwire force”. In the event of a ceasefire between Russian and Ukraine, it would deter Vladimir Putin from launching a fresh invasion.

Macron says French-British blueprint doesn’t foresee deploying a ‘mass’ of soldiers in Ukraine

Speaking to French media ahead of an online summit that the U.K. hosted on Saturday, Macron said the French-British blueprint doesn’t aim to deploy a “mass” of soldiers in Ukraine and instead envisages stationing troop contingents in key locations.

Ukraine says Russia continues to try to invade Sumy region

Apparently building up on the success of their counteroffensive in Kursk region (see our previous post) Russian forces continue their efforts to cross the border and invade another part of Ukraine: northern Sumy region.

Russian forces have been using small assault groups to attack Ukrainian positions, and also subversive groups to carry out reconnaissance and plant landmines, Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian State Border Service, tells Ukrainian TV this morning.

Zelensky announces upcoming Ramstein summit in Brussels

Zelensky also said that Ukraine is acquiring more ammunition, including artillery shells and additional missiles for its IRIS-T, NASAMS, and SAMP/T air defense systems.

Long video here: Inside Ukraine's desperate fight to stabilize Donbas front

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1901392055907057961

Updated map from @Deepstate_UA about the situation in Toretsk. They say there wasn’t a Ukrainian counteroffensive in Toretsk, but instead that the situation remains dynamic and chaotic and the front line isn’t static (their map has always displayed a large amount of grey area). They say Russia has rotated in the 150th Motorized Rifle Division.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1901280789850964222

A Ukrainian fighter filmed a Russian fiber-optic drone getting caught in anti-drone nets. Such drones can’t be jammed by EW due to cable control, but the nets stopped it.

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1901313386488750433

Unique footage showing the moment of the launch of a Russian Shahed-136/Geran-2 long-range OWA-UAV from a pick-up truck on a move and its subsequent strike on a target in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy names new chief of general staff to enhance Ukraine’s combat effectiveness

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday appointed Andrii Hnatov as the new chief of the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces, as the country looks to restructure and strengthen its military while its engaged in combat in Russia’s Kursk region and facing increasing pressure in Donetsk.

 

[Chadstroma]

Hungary backs down on Russia sanctions veto after U.S. intervention​

In January, Hungary signaled its intention to block the extension of anti-Russian sanctions, citing the return of Donald Trump to the White House. However, Politico noted that Trump himself later unexpectedly threatened Moscow with new restrictions.

Additionally, two senior officials told Politico that Rubio personally called Szijjártó and urged him not to undermine the EU's sanctions system. According to diplomats, this helped convince Budapest to step back from its veto threat and maintain the sanctions.

However, Politico warned that Trump could change his stance at any moment and push for easing sanctions on Russia.

"If that happens, the EU will lose a critical tool in its efforts to rein in the Hungarians," the report stated.

This could pose a significant challenge, as extending EU sanctions against Russia requires unanimous approval from all member states. Politico noted that the EU currently lacks a consensus on when or under what conditions sanctions might be eased, regardless of Trump’s decisions.

Possible easing of sanctions against Russia​

On Feb. 19, The Moscow Times, citing sources, reported that Russia had asked the United States to unfreeze state assets and ease sanctions during negotiations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Feb. 18.

That same day, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the Trump administration would not lift sanctions on Russia unless a peace deal was reached to end the war in Ukraine.

On March 6, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington was prepared to impose "full-scale" sanctions on Russian energy exports if it would help secure a ceasefire.

Bessent also emphasized that U.S. sanctions against Russia "will be applied openly and aggressively to maximize their effect."

On March 7, Trump claimed that Russia was "crushing" Ukraine on the battlefield and said he was considering imposing harsh new sanctions and tariffs on Moscow.

On March 10, Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with internal discussions, reported that Trump’s advisers were working on a plan to ease sanctions against Russia, including reviewing restrictions on Russian oil sales.

Reuters also reported that Russia had already begun preparing for a potential rollback of U.S. sanctions and was in talks with foreign companies.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine made a new version of its 'Neptune' missile for strikes deep into Russia. It's already put it to work.​

• Ukraine has a new version of its Neptune missile with a longer range.
• Kyiv said the new weapon, which has a reach of over 600 miles, has already been used in combat.
• The Neptune began as an anti-ship cruise missile that was later modified for land attack missions.

Ukraine has a new version of its homemade Neptune cruise missile for longer range, expanding the country's deep-strike arsenal, and it has already used the weapon against Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday that he received "significant" news on the country's missile program, specifically that the "Long Neptune" had been tested and successfully used in combat.

"A new Ukrainian missile, an accurate strike. The range is a thousand kilometers (or 620 miles)," Zelenskyy said in a post on the Telegram messaging platform. "Thank you to our Ukrainian developers, manufacturers, and military. We continue to work to guarantee Ukrainian security."

The Long Neptune missile is a bigger version of Kyiv's R-360 Neptune anti-ship missile, a subsonic truck-launched munition that Ukraine previously modified to strike land targets. It is made by the Ukrainian defense manufacturer Luch Design Bureau.

The new "Long Neptune" missile has been in the works for some time. Last year, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that serial production of the missiles had expanded and that they were being upgraded to strike at longer ranges. The munition could previously hit targets over 200 miles away. The new version roughly triples its range.

Ukraine has used Neptune missiles to strike high-value Russian targets, including the cruiser Moskva, once the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, in the early days of the full-scale invasion. The missile has also been used to attack high-end air defense batteries and oil terminals.

The "Long Neptune" missile was reportedly used late last week to strike an oil refinery in the Russian city of Tuapse, some 300 miles from the front lines. It marked one of Ukraine's latest strikes targeting Moscow's energy sector as Kyiv looks to deprive its neighbor of critical revenue.

The new missile exceeds the ranges of the ground- and air-launched missiles Ukraine received from its Western partners. The weapon comes as Kyiv's booming defense industry becomes increasingly self-reliant.

The Neptune is part of a growing arsenal of homemade munitions as Ukraine looks to strengthen its deep-strike capabilities with missiles and drones. Kyiv has used its arsenal to hit key Russian airfields, ammunition storage warehouses, and energy facilities.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1901785681757651064

Zelenskyy said Ukraine successfully tested a long-range one-way attack drone at 3,000 km

Ukraine’s army escapes from Kursk by the skin of its teeth

There have been serious losses; the withdrawal was chaotic in parts, and Russia captured at least dozens of prisoners. But the Ukrainians retreated relatively intact and a sizeable force still remains up to 10km inside Russia, having taken up more defensible positions on high ground.

For now, there are no signs they intend to leave the area they still hold, regardless of Vladimir Putin’s wishes. The man in the Kremlin was humiliated by the Ukrainian operation last summer, which at one point involved the occupation of 1,200 square kilometres of Russian land. He has spoken viciously of the soldiers taking part, demanding those captured be “treated like terrorists”. Some of his troops appear to have taken the instruction literally. Widespread video evidence suggests some Russian units in Kursk have a policy of executing prisoners. Ukrainian military sources say the Russians began to take more prisoners as time went on, but they fear this may be preparation for a future show trial.

One reason for launching the Kursk operation was to disrupt Russian attempts to create its own buffer zones inside Ukraine. “We don’t want it to turn into an offensive for the Russians,” Mr Zelensky said: “we have experience with that.”
Ukraine is reasonably prepared for the threat, having now fortified its border with several new lines of defences and trenches. Still, Russian reconnaissance groups of up to 30 men have already been seen in some Ukrainian border villages. In Sumy the atmosphere is tense. Military authorities have set up checkpoints blocking entry to non-locals, even accredited journalists. Soldiers have orders not to speak to the press.

Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk continues to divide opinion. Some top officers opposed it from the start; the commander of one of the four elite units spearheading the August 2024 offensive resigned before it started. Others who had been excluded from the armed forces commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky’s decision-making thought it a mistake. Some have since tempered their opposition, admitting it diverted (and killed) some of Russia’s best troops. “We’ve lost lots of good men, and maybe it was a rash decision”, says one intelligence officer, “but you have to ask what the tens of thousands of soldiers Putin diverted to Kursk might have done elsewhere.”

New Drone Tactics Sealed Russian Victory In Kursk

Russia’s sudden success in Kursk was achieved by the concentration of drone firepower, and the adoption of tactics previously perfected by Ukraine, according to the military blogger Russian Engineer.
At one point Ukraine held around 500 square miles of Russian territory, but after months of stalemate the Russians took almost all of it back in just a few days. According to Russian Engineer this involved a ‘revolution’ in drone tactics which targeted Ukrainian supply lines.
“This revolution allows us to expect a repetition of similar situations now in other parts of the front," Russian Engineer declares. (Special thanks to Samuel Bendett for highlighting and translating this post).

But according to Russian Engineer, a military blogger with more than 100,000 followers, the main difference was in the drones:
“This revolution was achieved due to the transition from quantity to quality of our drones, and all other supporting forces and means,” wrote Russian Engineer. “It can be said that the Russian army has mastered a tactical technique of ‘isolating the battlefield’ by modern means in modern conditions. With the help of drones, the supply of the Ukrainian Forces was cut off, and they had no options but to retreat."
Specifically, he describes how Russian forces in Kursk concentrated their most capable drone operators equipped with piloting fiber-optic drones and used them not to strike front line units but to destroy Ukraine’s logistics support. By attacking vehicles brining food, fuel and ammunition to the front line, and preventing troop rotation and the evacuation of the injured, they isolated frontline forces.
This claim is supported by large numbers of Russian drone attack videos, including the use of ambush drones which land beside roads until activated when vehicles are approaching. Fiber drones need relatively little power to communicate so they can perch in this way for long periods.
When they were eventually forces to abandon their positions, the retreating Ukrainians came under heavy drone attack.
“It was possible to greatly thin out their battle formations during their escape, almost completely destroy their armored vehicles and transport,” says Russian Engineer.
This appears to tally with an interview with one Ukrainian platoon commander in the New York Times , who says that all of their vehicles were destroyed, “drones hunted them night and day and they were almost out of ammunition” due to lack of resupply.
The Ukrainians have used similar tactics for some time. But it seems to be the sheer concentration of drones, plus the fact that the fiber drones have a significantly higher hit rate as they are immune to jamming. There is arguably some similarity to the early days of tank warfare, where commanders were divided over whether the new armored vehicles should be distributed out evenly across the front, or concentrated for maximum effect.
Either way, drone strikes on logistics seem to have been an important factor. Ukrainian analyst Serhii Flash writing on his Telegram channel noted: “One of the reasons for the enemy's success - just as we gathered the best drone units in Pokrovsky, the enemy brought up his own similar ones in the Kursk direction to disrupt logistics. Without logistics, an army does not fight for long.”

Russian Engineer sees the success at Kursk as the emergence of a new round of maneuver warfare. As he sees it, drones created the stalemate, now they have broken it.
“After both armies ran into a new positional war, the question was who would be able to overcome this deadlock. And the deadlock was caused by the emergence of total reconnaissance and mass weapons, which made the concentration of large masses of equipment and personnel pointless” Russian engineer writes. “Therefore, the way out was seen in the war of robots, and the ability to fight with them, to tie them to and reassemble all the other tactics in order to gain maneuver speed.”
He also adds – as many other analysts tend to -- “This is exactly what I have been writing about for a long time.”
This is one person’s interpretation. It is often said that while defeat is an orphan, victory has a thousand fathers. It is no surprise that a drone cheerleader will see drones as a decisive factor, and many others may also want to step forward and claim credit.
One notable development though is that Ukraine is now building defensive netting tunnels over supply routes to protect against drone attacks. As we saw earlier these only offer limited protection, but they are better than nothing. They are certainly a sign of growing concerns about the drone threat.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1901820868210106389

What appears to be the first footage ever released of a Ukrainian AN/TWQ-1 Avenger SHORAD system engaging a Russian attack drone with its M3 Browning .50 HMG.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1901721005535490218

Immensely rare footage of a Ukrainian “SAMbush” last year targeting a Russian Su-34 strike fighter.

Seen here, a stripped down Ukrainian PATRIOT system fires a single PAC-2 interceptor at the Russian bomber operating near the border.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

All-Robot Assault Opens New Chapter in Front-Line Warfare

The attack by the Ukrainians in December coordinated unmanned land and aerial vehicles on a scale that hadn’t previously been done, marking a new chapter of warfare where humans are largely removed from the front line of the battlefield, at least in the opening stages.

The December attack involved about 50 unmanned aerial vehicles and destroyed a Russian position north of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, according to the force that conducted the operation, Ukraine’s 13th National Guard Brigade Khartiya. The Wall Street Journal viewed video footage of the assault.

The attack served as a proof of concept. Though it had its problems, other Ukrainian units are now planning similar missions.
It did have some teething issues. The land drones in particular struggled with the terrain. And, while the drones did the fighting, good leadership, planning and drone operators remained essential, the U.S.-trained brigade said.

When the five-hour operation ended, Lt. Andriy Kopach, who specializes in land drones, was so exhausted he could think of nothing but sleep. Later, as international companies and governments began to reach out with questions about the attack, its significance became clearer.

“Then I was thinking, yes, it was really massive, really special,” he said. “It was the first step of the new war.”

Operators rehearsed the attack three times to iron out issues such as drones jamming each other with their signals. Ukrainian officers and troops meticulously mapped the route each drone would take.

As the early-morning assault began, Ukrainian soldiers knelt in the snow to unpack five unmanned ground vehicles at different spots, some several miles away from the front line, to prevent crossed signals.

First-person-view drones, or FPVs—including one with a mounted assault rifle, many that dropped munitions and several dozen providing surveillance and reconnaissance—joined them as they approached enemy lines, according to a brigade spokesman, who declined to give specifics on numbers and types.

Land drones traveled with an aerial drone escort to amplify their signal and provide a bird’s-eye view for the ground vehicle’s operator.
“If you are looking from a camera on the land drone, you’re looking out at the height of your knee,” said a lieutenant who goes by the call sign Happy.

When the signal between the land drone and its eyes in the sky failed, another drone filled the breach.

The land drones’ main enemy: mud. Footage of the attack shows the vehicles sometimes were bogged down or had to navigate obstacles on the ground. When one drone was in the quagmire it held others up.

Land drones typically face more obstacles than those in the air or on the water. They need to negotiate buildings and get across uneven terrain without losing connection. And while big arms makers have tested land drones, or UGVs, for decades, the U.S. and its allies haven’t deployed them in a meaningful way.

In Ukraine, UGVs have had a more limited impact than their aerial and naval counterparts, said Tamiris Pereira dos Santos, a land platforms analyst at the defense-intelligence company Janes.

But “what the deployment of UGVs in Ukraine has done is to catalyze testing and experimentation of these platforms for other armed forces and larger manufacturers,” he said.

Ukraine, the U.S. and other countries are working on artificial-intelligence programs, including so-called swarming technology, which will allow aerial drones to coordinate among themselves. But the December operation still needed exact coordination between different command posts operated by human soldiers.

Footage showed operators hunched over consoles in bunkers with banks of large screens relaying footage of the action.

As the land drones neared their targets, UAVs provided backup.

Then the robot wars began. Russian FPV drones appeared, launching themselves at the land vehicles, according to the footage. One came close to destroying a land drone, which fired back at the Russian line with a mounted machine gun. Happy, the Ukrainian lieutenant, remembers seeing footage from aerial drones showing the snow pockmarked by the blasts from Russian attack UAVs.

After the attack, mechanics at one of the brigade’s engineering depots were working on 10 domestically produced UGVs recently. The vehicles ranged from an exploding drone—a foot long and a foot wide, able to carry nearly 90 pounds of explosives—to a one-ton UGV for detonating mines.

Ukraine buys US LNG in deal with Poland's Orlen

Ukraine has bought 100 million cubic metres (mcm) of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) in a deal between state energy firm Naftogaz and Poland's Orlen, Naftogaz said on Tuesday.
A senior Ukrainian energy official told Reuters this month that Ukraine may import large volumes of U.S. gas this year via terminals in Germany, Greece, Lithuania and Poland.
"The fuel will come from a shipment of U.S. LNG. After regasification, the gas will be transported to the Polish-Ukrainian border," Naftogaz said regarding the latest deal, adding the gas was due to arrive in April.

Russian billionaire Potanin eyes rare earth metals exploration

Russian billionaire Vladimir Potanin, CEO and shareholder of metals giant Nornickel, said on Tuesday he is considering projects in rare earths, noting that reserves in Russia and Russian-controlled Eastern Ukraine have been poorly studied.

"Many deposits within our territory and the new Russian territories are inadequately explored. Many geological studies and their results were lost after the Soviet Union," Potanin told reporters.
"Therefore, all of this needs to be restored now. We are contemplating and working on it," he added. It was not immediately clear from Potanin's remarks whether Nornickel would be involved in such projects.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Putin Is Said to Want All Arms to Ukraine Halted for Trump Truce

Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding a suspension of all weapons deliveries to Ukraine during a ceasefire proposed by US counterpart Donald Trump, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The Russian leader, who met with a Trump envoy last week, has made the halt to arms supplies a prerequisite for signing up to the ceasefire, said a senior European official and three people in Moscow familiar with Russia’s position.

While Russia wants to halt all weapons deliveries to Ukraine, the minimum aim is that US aid should stop, said two of the people in Moscow with knowledge of the Kremlin’s thinking.
The senior European official added that Europe was extremely reluctant to agree to Russia’s demand to block deliveries of weapons to Ukraine by its allies during any truce. That outcome would risk a situation where Russia was able to rearm during a cessation of hostilities, while Ukraine was prevented from doing so, the official said.

Keir Starmer ready to put British troops in Ukraine for years

A senior government source said that the British deployment would be open-ended. “It would be a long-term commitment, we are talking about years,” the source said. “As long as it takes to preserve a peace deal and deter Russia.”

UK and EU Advance Talks on Seizing Frozen Russian Assets

The UK and European Union will advance talks on how to seize frozen Russian assets to jointly boost defense spending, as they seek ways to increase economic pressure on Vladimir Putin ahead of any peace talks to end his war on Ukraine.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy and the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, will review “innovative initiatives” to collectively step up European defense funding and bolster military readiness in a meeting in London on Tuesday, the UK Foreign Office said.
The talks will include how Europe ensures it has the right legal and financial cover to seize billions in Russian assets, according to people familiar with the matter. Progress is being made despite resistance from some European countries like Belgium and Germany who remain concerned that confiscation could breach the principle of a state’s immunity under international law and impact the euro, they said.

The $300 billion question: What to do with Russia’s frozen central bank money?

Some of Ukraine’s friends — Poland, the United Kingdom and the Baltic states Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — want to do more by taking the principal as well, given the enormous damage Russia has done. The World Bank estimates that reconstructing Ukraine will cost $524 billion over 10 years, already more than the total of the Russian assets. If one or more Western governments resists seizing the assets, the others that want to could still go ahead.

European leaders say seizing the assets now would mean they couldn’t be used as a bargaining chip in any peace deal or to help enforce a ceasefire.

French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said Tuesday that it was against international law to seize assets in central banks. If Russian assets were seized without legal grounds, “it could pose a risk to European financial stability,” he said.

“I advocate great caution when it comes to those frozen assets,” Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said at a March 6 EU summit. “At the moment, that is actually a chicken that also lays golden eggs. Those windfall profits are going to Ukraine.”

Opponents of seizure also fear that countries and investors would hesitate to use European financial institutions if they are afraid assets could be seized, undermining the euro’s role as an international currency for state reserves.
More specifically, governments worry that countries such as Saudi Arabia and China may sell European government bonds in response, said Elina Ribakova, an economist with the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. That would raise borrowing costs for governments already deep in debt.

Poland, Baltic states inch closer to leaving antipersonnel mine treaty

Defense ministers from Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania recommend that their countries withdraw from the international agreement banning antipersonnel mines, also known as the Ottawa Treaty.

 

[fatness]

Putin agrees 30-day halt to strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in call with Trump

" Vladimir Putin has ordered Russia’s military to refrain from striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days after a call with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday.The Russian president “reacted positively” to Trump’s suggestion to stop attack on Ukraine’s power plants, the Kremlin said in a readout of the call.But he stopped short of agreeing to a US-backed proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. Instead, Putin pointed to a “series of significant issues” about how a ceasefire would be enforced and “serious risk” about whether Ukraine would adhere to it."

 

[fatness]

"Donald Trump began his conversation with Vladimir Putin with a simple demand: a 30-day ceasefire on land, sea and air which Ukraine has already signed up to, as an initial measure on which to build towards a peace. Instead, what the US president got from Putin were questions, half-offers and limited concessions – and, above all, an extraordinary demand from the Russian leader to weaken Ukraine that would make a mockery of any peace agreement.

The “key condition” for resolving the conflict, the Kremlin said in a statement after the call, should be “the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv”. That means halting military support not just from the US but from all Ukraine’s foreign backers, including Britain, France and all those putting together plans for a post-conflict “reassurance force” intended to provide a long-term security guarantee to Kyiv, allowing it to open its ports and airports, and safeguard utility supplies.

It is nowhere near a position Ukraine can accept. Kyiv has spent three years fighting off Russia, incurring tens of thousands of casualties and successfully preventing a full takeover of the country – albeit for loss of around a fifth of its territory, which it accepts it cannot win back through fighting. So bold is the demand, it is hard to believe that Putin is entirely serious. “It sounds like the Russians are projecting their desires,” said Matthew Savill, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, simply describing the Kremlin position as “incompatible” with the European-led security plan."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ds-its-hard-to-believe-he-is-entirely-serious

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukrainian leader Zelenskyy to speak with Trump after US president's ceasefire talks with Putin

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he plans to speak with U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday to hear more about his call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1902281548008722787

Video from Ukrainian GUR of kamikaze UAV / FPV strikes (presumably launched from naval drones) on Russian targets in Crimea, including 48Ya6-K1 Podlet, 1L125 Niobium-SV, 39N6 Kasta 2E2, S-300V 9S19 Imbir and TELAR, Pantsir-S1, Nebo-SV, ST-68, Nebo-M, Mys, and 59N6-E Protivnik-GE radar and air defense systems; Mi-8 helicopter; and tugboats.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1902113085738963280

“Ukraine’s Defence Ministry has approved the use of the Liut (Rage) ground robotic system in defence forces units. The system is designed for various tasks, including reconnaissance and fire support.”

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1902130086762992061

Russian channels today said that Ukrainian forces attacked across the border in Belgorod oblast. Videos show analog and fiber optic cable, Lancet, and mine strikes on Ukrainian Bradley, BMP-1TS, IMR-2, and Wisent vehicles.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1902125230031577442

Thread on Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Belgorod Oblast today 1/
Russia's "Sever" Grouping of Forces initially said that Ukraine had attacked Grafovka and Prilese, near the border with Belgorod-Kursk border, with three groups of infantry supported by tanks as well as UR-77 and IMR obstacle-clearing vehicles.

The Russian MoD later said Ukraine attacked five times in the direction of Demidovka and Prilese, with the first attacking beginning at 5:50 AM local time and the last one beginning at 5:30 PM local time).

According to the MoD's report (which should obviously be taken with a handful of salt), the Ukrainians used 5x tanks, 16x other armored vehicles, 3x obstacle-clearing vehicles, an UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, and four light vehicles.

2/
Reportedly, Belgorod operation was several weeks in the making and aims to create a “buffer zone.”

When asked about it, Zelenskyy characterized the operation as a preemption of a Russian buildup for an attack in Sumy Oblast.

3/

https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1902047656878264573

Just as Putin talked w Trump, Ukrainians staged surprise raid into Russia’s Belgorod province, south of Kursk. I’m told op was 3 weeks in making, idea is to create a “buffer zone” like Putin threatened in Ukraine. A source says they are several km inside Russia, and moving.

Situation in Russia's Belgorod region 'difficult', at least one killed, government says

"The situation in Krasnoyaruzhsky district remains difficult," Gladkov, the head of the southwestern region, said in a video posted on Telegram.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902166899703578876

After a series of Russian strikes tonight targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, Russian channels report that Ukrainian attack drones successfully hit a Russian Rosneft fuel depot in Krasnodar.

The Russian fuel depot is burning.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902184210510573690

Amending the location: NASA’s FIRMS orbital fire monitoring system confirms a large fire at a Naftatrans fuel processing facility outside of Kavkazskaya, Krasnodar Krai.

(45.4631440, 40.6955061)

Two hospitals attacked in Sumy, Ukrainian officials say

Russian forces carried out drone attacks on two hospitals in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, Ukrainian officials say.

Parts of Ukrainian railway left without power after attack

Russia carried out a drone attack on the electricity system powering the railways in Ukraine's central Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukrainian state railway company Ukrzaliznytsya says in a statement.

Parts of the railway have been left without electricity, but railway traffic has not been affected, it says.

Russia and Ukraine trade accusations of infrastructure attacks

Russian forces launched an airstrike on energy infrastructure in Slovyansk, a city of 100,000 people in the Donetsk region, according to local reports, leaving part of the city without electricity.

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine claims to have fielded a drone-killing laser weapon

The device is known as “Tryzub,” or trident in English, referencing the Ukrainian national symbol.

www.defensenews.com

Ukraine claims to have fielded a drone-killing laser weapon

 

[fatness]

US deletes evidence of Russia’s kidnap of thousands of Ukrainian children

Researchers at Yale University had been compiling database of alleged Russian war crimes, including abduction of up to 35,000 children. An international effort to trace and rescue tens of thousands of children kidnapped from Ukraine to Russia and prosecute those responsible has been crippled by the US state department’s deletion of evidence.

A Yale source said the US state department deleted the evidence which would have been used as part of rescue efforts to get the children home to Ukraine. It would also have been used to prosecute those behind their abductions – including Russian president Vladimir Putin.

“The worst part of this is not that it screws up prosecution, that's bad. The worst part is that it screws up our active efforts to try to get the kids back across the front line, physically,” they added. The team works closely with SaveUkraine, a charity that has repatriated 610 Ukrainian children so far – and the Ukrainian government.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Trump agrees to help Ukraine find available Patriot air defense systems in Europe, White House says

U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed to assist Ukraine in finding additional U.S.-made Patriot air defenses available in Europe, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, citing a readout of a call between the two leaders on March 19.

Ukraine Has Received 'Several' More F-16 Fighter Jets: Zelensky

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday that his country had received "several" more F-16 fighter jets, without saying how many or from whom.

EU plans to supply at least 2 million shells annually to Ukraine

The European Union plans to supply Ukraine with at least 2 million shells annually, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced on March 19.

Ukraine claims to have fielded a drone-killing laser weapon

Ukraine claims to be one of the first countries to have successfully developed a laser anti-aircraft weapon, according to a high-ranking military official.

The secretive device has reportedly been employed on the battlefield against low-flying targets, likely unmanned aerial vehicles like the Iranian-made Shahed drones. It was first revealed in an interview with a Ukrainian news outlet by Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, the commander of the unmanned systems forces within the Ukrainian military.

The device is known as “Tryzub,” or trident in English, referencing the Ukrainian national symbol, which is superimposed in yellow on a blue background in the country’s now world-famous coat of arms.

UK MoD says Russian casualties are around 900,000 with 200,000 to 250,000 likely killed

Ukraine attacks Russian strategic bomber airfield, Russian officials say

Ukraine struck Russia's Engels strategic bomber base on Thursday with drones, triggering a major blast and fire about 700 km (435 miles) from the front lines of the war, Russian officials and media reported.

State of emergency in Russian district after 'largest attack' by drones

A state of emergency has been declared in the Engels district after a Ukrainian overnight drone attack, according to Russian news agency Tass.

Local governor Roman Busargin said the region faced its "largest-ever attack by unmanned aerial vehicles".

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1902487945115816384

Numerous fires and clouds of smoke rising over the city of Kropyvnytskyi in central Ukraine after Russian strikes tonight.

Dozens of explosions reported.

Ukrainian Air Force says it intercepted 171 Russian drones overnight

In its morning update, the Ukrainian Air Force says it shot down 75 of 171 drones launched by Russia overnight.

It adds that 63 were successfully redirected.

The regions of Sumy, Donetsk and Kirovohrad were targeted by the attacks, the force says.

Four children among 10 injured in 'massive' strike on Ukraine

We have more detail now on a Russian strike on the central Ukrainian city of Kropyvnytskyi, where at least 10 people were injured, including four children.

"Kropyvnytskyi has survived through most of the massive enemy attack," regional governor Arkadyi Raikovych said.

"Peaceful residential buildings were destroyed - private houses and multi-storey buildings."

Why Czech citizens are donating record sums for Ukraine

But the support doesn't just come from the state: Czech citizens have donated the equivalent of almost €300 million ($326 million) since the start of the war.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2025

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast and near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.

Russian forces continued ground operations to push Ukrainian forces from their remaining positions in Kursk Oblast on March 19.

Russian forces attacked west of Sudzha near Gogolevka, southwest of Sudzha near Oleshnya, south of Sudzha near Guyevo and Gornal, and near the international border in Sumy Oblast near Basivka on March 19.

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported on March 18 that Ukrainian forces recently destroyed three North Korean-provided Koksan self-propelled artillery system in Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced into Belgorod Oblast, but it is unclear if Ukrainian forces maintain these positions.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on March 18 and 19 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced south and southwest of Demidovka (along the international border northwest of Belgorod City). A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced southwest of Grafovka (southeast of Demidovka).

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on March 18 that Russian forces successfully repelled Ukrainian attacks near Demidovka and Prilesye (south of Demidovka). Many Russian milbloggers claimed on March 19 that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks toward Demidovka, Grafovka, and Prilesye on the night of March 18 to 19 and on the morning of March 19. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in forest areas along the Sumy-Belgorod Oblast border, and a Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced near Grafovka.

 

[ghostguy123]

So, let me preface by saying I don't know a ton about this whole thing......
But at what point do a bunch of countries (including the US) get together and say enough is enough, Russia is DONE.

Is it fear of Nuclear retaliation?

 

[The Z Machine]

So, let me preface by saying I don't know a ton about this whole thing......
But at what point do a bunch of countries (including the US) get together and say enough is enough, Russia is DONE.

Is it fear of Nuclear retaliation?

uh, yes. And not wanting American soldiers to die. Ukraine wants to fight to the last man to defend their country from an invader? That's their choice. We'll give them the guns to fight off tyranny.

 

[fatness]

Donald Trump told Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday that the US could own and run Ukrainian nuclear power plants as part of a ceasefire. The Ukrainian president said following their call that “we talked only about one power plant, which is under Russian occupation”, referring to Zaporizhzhia, Europe’s largest nuclear power station. The White House said it had “moved beyond” the idea of taking possession of Ukraine’s mineral wealth as part of negotiations. “We are now focused on a long-term peace agreement,” said White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt.

A major Russian oil pipeline station continued to burn at Kavkazskaya in Russia’s Krasnodar region after a successful Ukrainian drone strike. Authorities in the region said a total of 406 firefighters and 157 pieces of equipment had been sent.

European leaders reacted sceptically to the Trump-Putin limited ceasefire idea, saying it showed the Russian president was not serious about seeking a peaceful end to the three-year-old conflict, Sam Jones writes. Putin’s sweeping demands include leaving the Ukraine military weakened and vulnerable, with no western arms or intelligence, and a depleted army. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said: “It is clear that Russia does not really want to make any kind of concessions,” adding along with other leaders that Kremlin demands to stop arming Kyiv could not be accepted.

The EU should fund Ukraine’s access to satellite services from EU-based commercial providers, the European Commission said in its white paper on the future of European defence published on Wednesday. Ukraine’s military has been heavily dependent on Elon Musk’s Starlink but there have been veiled threats it could be cut off unless Ukraine accepts Trump-dictated peace terms. European satellite operators are in talks with the EU as they have been asked if they can step in and replace Starlink. “This will help Ukraine to enhance its resilience by diversifying its sources of space-based services,” the paper said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...g-trump-wants-zaporizhzhia-power-plant-for-us

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1903020959084192123

The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 214 Shahed or other OWA UAVs overnight. The video is from Ukraine’s State Emergency Service of damage caused by strikes on Odesa.

Gas pumping station in Russia near Ukraine border on fire after explosion

A Russian gas pumping and measuring station in western Russia's Kursk region near the border with Ukraine was on fire on Friday morning after being rocked by a major explosion.
The Sudzha facility, once used by Gazprom to export gas via Ukraine to Europe, is in an area recaptured by Russian forces this week after heavy fighting with Ukrainian troops who had held it since last year.

Some Russian media accused the Ukrainian military of attacking the facility. The Ukrainian military denied involvement and accused Russian forces of shelling it with artillery in "a provocation".

https://x.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1902867836151730673

GeoConfirmed UKR.

Powerful burning of 'Sudzha gas pipeline.' Unknown who hit it.

51.18078, 35.142136
54JR+8V6 Gogolevka, Kursk Oblast, Russia

https://x.com/ruslantrad/status/1902844954096873745

Tonight, the Russian army conducted the most massive drone attack on Odessa in 3 years. According to reports, Russian forces used a new tactic with drone swarms coming in from the Black Sea before descending on targets on the ground.

At least 15 explosions were reported in different city areas; emergency power outages were also reported.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902964243193819415

This morning, a series of explosions tore through Russia’s Naftatrans fuel processing facility in Krasnodar, hit earlier this week by Ukrainian drones.

The plant is now suffering several fully engulfed tanks, with hundreds of Russian firefighters failing to control the blaze.

Germany confiscates tanker belonging to Russian 'shadow fleet', Spiegel reports

Germany has confiscated a decrepit tanker found adrift off its northern coast in January that is believed to be part of a shadow fleet used by Russia to circumvent oil sanctions, the Spiegel news magazine reported on Friday, citing security sources.
The Panama-flagged ship, called Eventin, was secured by German maritime authorities after being found off the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen, prompting Berlin to sharply rebuke Moscow.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine's 'chaotic' withdrawal from Russia, in its soldiers' words

Until just over a week ago, Artem Kariakin and his unit were making regular trips across Ukraine's border into the Russian town of Sudzha.

He shows me video taken with a phone of their very last trip, as Ukrainian forces retreated from Russia's Kursk region. It shows them making their way past dozens of burnt out military and civilian vehicles.

A soldier armed with a shotgun, their last line of defence, scans the horizon for Russian drones. Out of nowhere, one flies towards the back of their truck. Sparks fly, but they keep on going.

Artem says they were lucky - the explosive charge was not big enough to stop them.

Another truck nearby was less fortunate. It was already in flames.

Artem admits Ukraine's retreat from Sudzha, the largest town Ukraine held in Kursk, was "not well organised".

"It was pretty chaotic," he tells me. "Many units left in disarray. I think the problem was the order to withdraw came too late."

It wasn't helped, he says, because units were operating without proper communications. The Starlink satellite systems they normally rely on didn't work inside Russia.
The 27-year-old soldier still views the Kursk offensive as broadly successful. Artem says it forced Russia to divert its forces from the east. Most of Ukraine's troops still managed to escape in time – even if for many it was on foot.

But he believes Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russian territory, launched last August, was too deep and too narrow - relying on just one main road for supplies and reinforcements.

Problems in Kursk Oblast: Drones, logistics, North Koreans

In February, Alex, a serviceman of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, spent 21 days on the frontlines in Kursk Oblast. It was his toughest combat mission yet.

"There were fatalities and wounded. An FPV drone flew into the cellar, and then seven or eight more followed throughout the day. There was gas and bombardments," Alex recounts to Hromadske journalists shortly after his return.

Alex's experience reflects the intensifying situation for Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. In February and March, Russians achieved key successes, pushing Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the town of Sudzha and its surroundings.

However, the situation for the Ukrainian garrison gradually worsened. After the Defense Forces' breakthrough, Russians brought in reserves to the previously unprotected border and achieved their first successes in Kursk Oblast by fall 2024.

"It became very difficult in mid-September when we went on the defensive. The active offensive ended, and the enemy started using equipment and breaking through our defenses, creating blocking lines and entering their settlements," says Pavlo Yazlovetskyi, deputy commander of a battalion in the 82nd Air Assault Brigade.
On February 6, Yazlovetskyi received the Gold Star of the Hero of Ukraine from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for leading 102 soldiers of his brigade out of encirclement. His company was ambushed three times but managed to establish a circular defense and break through. This demonstrates that the war in Kursk Oblast is much more maneuverable than in the east. Similar stories have been reported by other units that were encircled and then broke through, destroying the surrounding Russians.

An assessment of the Kursk operation by a former Ukrainian officer: Kursk Offensive - A Preliminary Assessment

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1902876821378515138

Kursk Offensive: A Preliminary Assessment by Frontelligence Insight.
A condensed version of report for X. Thread:

1/ With Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Sudzha, the operation is clearly approaching its conclusion though it is not yet entirely over.

2/ To assess the operation, not in isolation, but within the broader context of the war, we broke down the Kursk operation into 3 key questions: whether its geopolitical objectives were met, whether the attrition rate was favorable, and whether it achieved battlefield success
3/ To determine equipment attrition, we analyzed data from OSINT analyst @naalsio26, who tracks losses across multiple frontlines. Our graphs show losses from August to March but are not exhaustive, as they exclude some retreat-related losses. The cut-off date was March 10.
4/ By March 10, Russia had lost at least 712 pieces of equipment, including 412 armored fighting vehicles - the largest share. While Russia typically suffers higher vehicle losses than Ukraine, it can offset some of them through domestic production and refurbishing stockpiles.
5/ Ukraine's total losses stand at 632 pieces, lower than Russia's, but the overall loss ratio is nearly 1:1 - an unfavorable scenario for Ukraine in a war of attrition, given its smaller numbers and limited replacement capacity amid shifting political dynamics
6/ Regarding personnel losses, our team lacks precise data. Given Russia’s slightly higher vehicle losses and reliance on infantry assaults, both by Russian and North Korean troops, the attrition rate among infantry is likely more favorable for Ukraine than the vehicle loss ratio
7/ In terms of operational goals, we primarily focus on statements made by senior officials during the early-intermediate operation phase: diverting Russian forces from the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove areas, creating a buffer zone with Sumy, and holding territory for negotiations
8/ Units involved in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove operations in majority of cases remained in their respective zones and were not redeployed to Kursk, with exceptions such as the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, which briefly operated in the Pokrovsk area before moving to Kursk.
9/ On the other hand, when Ukrainian defenses began to weaken in the Pokrovsk direction in August, no reserves were available to halt the advancing Russian forces. Russian territorial gains accelerated significantly with the onset of the Kursk operation. Credit: @Black_BirdGroup
10/ Ukraine succeeded in preventing a Russian incursion from Kursk into Sumy Oblast by creating a buffer zone within Russia. However, it remains unclear if Russia had such plans. When Ukrainian forces entered Kursk, they primarily faced border troops, conscripts, and rear units.
11/ Next goal - the territory swap was logical: reclaiming occupied areas through counteroffensives would have been far more costly for Ukraine than seizing lightly defended Russian territory for later trade. However, with the loss of most of territories, this plan failed
12/ The opening phase of the operation was the most successful, bringing the best results. With relatively small losses, Ukraine not only captured large territories and prisoners for exchange, but also gathered valuable intelligence and disrupted logistical operations in the area
13/ The main phase became one of diminishing returns, driven by the same fundamental problems: poor organization, insufficient manpower, frequent Russian use of guided bombs, limited logistical routes, worsened by the influx of North Korean infantry and artillery ammo.
14/ The prolonged Kursk operation decreased pressure on Ukrainian troops in areas like northern Kharkiv. Russian air-dropped guided bomb strikes shifted focus from Kharkiv to Kursk. Additionally, the movement of the 76th Division decrease pressure on the Zaporizhia front as well
15/ Ukrainian command continued counterattacks and attempts to break through Russian defenses, despite limited tactical gains and no significant operational progress. In many cases, these offensives were counterproductive, with Ukrainian losses continuing to mount.
16/ As time went on, the Kursk operation started to look more like a battle for Donbas, rather than the fluid maneuvering seen in Kharkiv in 2022 or in Kursk during August. The key differences were an even worse situation with fortifications, logistics, and the local population
17/ The final stage of the operation is still ongoing, with Ukrainian forces continuing to maintain a buffer zone in Kursk, achieving one of the operation's main objectives. Despite some chaos, the overall retreat process has been much better than expected given the circumstances
18/ In summary, the operation achieved only partial success relative to its initial goals, while potentially accelerating Russian gains in Donbas. The attrition ratio was unfavorable for Ukraine, as it requires higher losses on the Russian side to be considered successful

 

[Don't Toews Me]

RAF in talks to police skies above Ukraine

British fighter jets will police the skies above Ukraine under proposals being discussed by Sir Keir Starmer’s coalition of the willing.
The Telegraph understands that key military planners discussed sending British Typhoons to Ukraine to provide air cover for troops when they met at Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ) on Thursday.

A senior RAF source told The Telegraph that air cover the British can supply would have been discussed at the meeting because in the event British soldiers go into Ukraine, “there will be a requirement for top cover”.
“We would never send British troops out on the ground without giving them air cover,” he said.
The RAF would provide either Typhoons or F35s as both provide “excellent air-to-air policing”.

Starmer shifts from boots on the ground in Ukraine to air and sea defence

Sir Keir Starmer, Britain’s prime minister, is turning towards air and sea support to defend Ukraine, a shift from his previous focus on European “boots on the ground” to secure any peace deal with Russia.
Speaking at a meeting of military planners from a 31-country “coalition of the willing” near London, Starmer said Russian President Vladimir Putin had to know “there will be severe consequences” if he broke a ceasefire.
But while Starmer has in the past focused on putting boots on the ground, on Thursday he stressed the role of sea and air power in “defending the peace”.
The prime minister said there could be different pathways to a permanent ceasefire, adding: “We’re looking at the sea in one scenario, the sky, obviously land and borders and regeneration.”
But he insisted the priority had to be to support Ukraine in defending itself, “They’ve got the capability, they’ve got the numbers and they’ve got the frontline experience,” he told journalists at the Northwood UK military headquarters.
“So we’re not talking about something that replaces that capability — we’re talking about something that reinforces that and then put around it capabilities in relation to air, water and sea and land.”

Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Academy think-tank told its conference on air power on Thursday that any European contingent in Ukraine would likely be based around air power rather than ground forces.
“The Russians freed up a week ago 22 brigades worth of troops in Kursk, and they’re going reassign those to other bits of the front,” he said. “That constituted around 70,000 troops more combat power than the entire British Army could generate in the field.”

Reassurance, not peacekeeping: What Ukraine coalition force will and won't do

The potential Western troop deployment to Ukraine being discussed in London should be described as a "reassurance force" rather than a "peacekeeping force", defence and diplomatic sources say.

Currently dubbed the Multinational Force Ukraine or MFU, it would be sent to the country to cement any ceasefire and encourage long-term confidence in the country.

The focus would be on providing Ukraine with air cover to keep its skies safe and a naval presence in the Black Sea to encourage trade.

The deployment of so-called "boots on the ground" - probably about 20,000 strong - would in terms of size not be big enough to enforce any peace.

Instead, the troops - provided by a so-called "coalition of the willing" - would most likely be deployed to protect cities, ports and major energy infrastructure.

One option being considered is that the MFU might not operate in the east of Ukraine near the front line to try to reassure Russia it poses no offensive threat.

The sources say any multinational operation in Ukraine would not be a "peacekeeping force" and should not be described as such.

The sources also say the coalition troops would not be deployed to provide a so-called "tripwire force" - meaning a force smaller than that of the opponent, designed to deter an attack without triggering escalation - if Russia resumed its invasion of Ukraine.

They say the military impact of any allied deployment of about 20,000 troops would be limited compared to the number of troops on either side of the front line.

Macron exploring UN alternative to Starmer’s Ukraine plan

Emmanuel Macron is actively exploring alternatives to putting European boots on the ground in Ukraine – his plan drawn up with Sir Keir Starmer.
The Telegraph understands that the French president is considering the possibility of a mission to protect a future peace deal being led by the United Nations.

 

[Chadstroma]

NATO to ask allies for 30% capability boost, top commander says

“We’re at a moment in time where everything is important, we’re lacking everything, and so we have to be quite astute,” said French Adm. Pierre Vandier.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia holds key rate at 21% despite Putin request not to chill the economy​

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-holds-key-rate-21-inflationary-pressure-remains-high-2025-03-21/

 

[Don't Toews Me]

China is apparently considering participation in "coalition of the willing" in Ukraine

China is apparently considering participating in possible peacekeeping forces in Ukraine. Chinese diplomats have sounded out in Brussels whether such a step would be conceivable and possibly even desirable from the point of view of the Europeans, reports WELT AM SONNTAG, citing EU diplomatic circles familiar with the matter. In Brussels diplomatic circles, it was said: "The inclusion of China in a 'coalition of the willing' could potentially increase Russia's acceptance of peacekeepers in Ukraine." In any case, however, the matter is "sensitive".

Who's in, who's out? The 'coalition of the willing' that could secure peace in Ukraine

Turkey, which has the second largest army in NATO, is ready to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine if necessary, according to a Turkish military source.

Speaking anonymously on 6 March, the source said discussions on a Turkish deployment remained conceptual, with no concrete decisions yet made.

China ready to assist Ukraine in post-war recovery

Li Ming, spokesperson for China International Development Cooperation Agency, has stated that China is ready to assist Ukraine in post-war recovery and continue providing other forms of aid.

North Korean leader reaffirms support for Russia’s war in Ukraine in talks with top official

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un expressed his unwavering support for Russia’s war in Ukraine during a meeting with a top Russian security official in Pyongyang, North Korean state media said Saturday.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2025

Russia continues to strengthen its bilateral relations with North Korea, despite growing warnings from the US against deeper Russian-North Korean cooperation. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu traveled to North Korea on March 21 and met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, likely to discuss Russian-North Korean ties. US State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce condemned North Korea's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine on March 19, noting that North Korean support to Russia fuels and exacerbates the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian and other Western officials have also continuously noted that North Korean involvement in Russia's offensive operations in Kursk Oblast and broader cooperation with Russia has particularly enhanced North Korea's military capabilities, posing potential security risks in the Asia-Pacific region.

Russian officials also continue to deepen ties with the People's Republic of China (PRC). Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Head Alexander Bortnikov met with PRC Security Minister Wang Xiaohong in Beijing on March 21 to discuss Russia-PRC bilateral relations. Wang noted that the PRC is prepared to support multi-level meetings between Russian and Chinese law enforcement agencies and security services and to strengthen partnership in the fight against terrorism and transnational crime. ISW has observed that the PRC has supported Russia's war effort in Ukraine through sanctions evasion, rhetoric, and even direct military aid while posturing itself as a neutral actor and mediator to end the conflict.

https://x.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1903120341271994746

new satellite imagery (from this morning) of Russia's Engles Air Base, which was hit by Ukrainian drones a day earlier. Craters and destroyed buildings are visible. Images 1-3 from March 21; Image 4 from Dec. 2024. @Maxar

https://x.com/kromark/status/1903380414275727431

A fire at the Sudzha gas metering station can be seen on a Sentinel satellite image taken on March 21st. Both Ukraine and Russia blame each other for it, while gas has not been flowing through this pipeline since December 31st.

Russian attacks kill seven in Ukraine, officials say

Russian attacks killed a family of three late on Friday in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia and four more people in the country's north and east, officials said.
Zaporizhzhia regional governor Ivan Fedorov said on social media the city had been struck more than 10 times, with a 14-year-old girl and her parents killed in the attacks and 12 people wounded, including an infant.

Prosecutors in the northeastern Sumy region said late on Friday that Russian forces dropped at least six guided bombs on the village of Krasnopillia, killing two people and injuring at least two.
In eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region, the focal point of Russian forces' steady westward advance, two people were killed and nine wounded in Russian attacks on Friday, according to governor Vadym Filashkin.
In the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, acting regional governor Yuri Slyusar said a Ukrainian drone struck the 17th floor of an apartment building, injuring two people. Air defences destroyed a number of drones, Slyusar wrote on Telegram.
In Voronezh, another southern Russian region near Ukraine, Governor Alexander Gusev said more than 10 Ukrainian drones were destroyed. No damage or casualties were reported.
Reuters could not independently verify reports from either side.

https://x.com/sambendett/status/1903171127821709709

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered that measures be taken by June 1, 2025 to apply artificial intelligence technologies in the production and operation of aerial drones.

https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1903370124054110674

On 20 March 2025 Russian President Putin signed a decree that mandated Ukrainian nationals living in Russia, or in sovereign Ukrainian territory illegally occupied by Russia, to 'settle their legal status' by 10 September 2025, or leave the territory.