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***Official Soccer Discussion Thread*** (17 Viewers)

@shader

The Champions League is reportedly set to be reformed from the 2018/19 season onwards, with changes to qualification rules for the top four leagues in Europe.

Under a proposed new qualification format, the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga could all be guaranteed four clubs qualifying automatically every season.

However, one new feature of the rule is that while the top three teams in each domestic league would earn a place in the group stage, the fourth would be decided on something described as ‘historical merit’, according to Gazzetta dello Sport.

It’s not yet clear what the specifics of this will mean, but the aim is to keep in giants of the game such as Manchester United, Liverpool and AC Milan, all of whom have been in and out of the competition in recent years due to poor showings in the league.

Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2016/08/09/champions-league-rule-changes-could-see-automatic-qualification-for-four-premier-league-clubs-every-season-6057734/#ixzz4Gs91rCcr

If this passes - I blame Shader imo
I can't believe this.  What qualifies as "historical" anyway?  Who decides?  There's too much money on the line for teams to roll over and let "historical teams in" if it's not earned on merit.

 
I can't believe this.  What qualifies as "historical" anyway?  Who decides?  There's too much money on the line for teams to roll over and let "historical teams in" if it's not earned on merit.


I hate hypotheticals. They don;t change anything so I generally stay away from them. But I'll bit here. 

If they do something like a rolling 5 year average for points that could work for "historical merit" and allow teams to still bounce up and down a little bit. 

 
I can't believe this.  What qualifies as "historical" anyway?  Who decides?  There's too much money on the line for teams to roll over and let "historical teams in" if it's not earned on merit.
If I had to guess - these are the negotiations going on with the big clubs who want to break away to form the "Super League"  Those teams probably feel that they drive all the revenue, and want a bigger piece of the pie and/or more guaranteed revenue, so they can go out and continue to buy the best players.  And, it may be the Team's sponsors as much as it is the teams themselves driving this - Adidas and Chevrolet want ManU in champions league, not Europa, or sitting at home like Chelsea and Liverpool.  (Standard Chartered is probably used to not being in CL by this point).

Of course, the flip side is that a lot of minnow associations rely on the CL and Europa revenue they get from their team's participation.  So, it comes down to finding the right balance in how the money is split up.

 
I can't believe this.  What qualifies as "historical" anyway?  Who decides?  There's too much money on the line for teams to roll over and let "historical teams in" if it's not earned on merit.
England, Spain, Germany and Italy each get 4 spots, every year, regardless of coefficient. 

 
New England beat Chicago tonight 3-1 in the US Open Cup semi finals.

NE will meet the winner of the LA Dallas game tomorrow night in the finals.

 
As an Arsenal fan I think "historical merit" sounds great.  Well, unless "historical merit" means having actually won something in which case it's a stupid idea.

 
I'm not crazy about this development, either. Are we really getting away from earning things now?
It changes almost nothing. Adds one spot for the big 4 (top 3 already get 4 each) and "locks" then in at 4 each. I don't think Portugal or Russia is catching Italy or England on coefficient any time soon, if ever. This is nothing compared to the major format changes made in the early 90s.

 
Under this format, EPL would have been interesting: the final spot would have been among Man City, Man United, and presumably Liverpool and Chelsea.  I imagine in this scenario, Man United would have taken Man City's spot.  I don't think this plan envisions teams like Leicester and Tottenham both cracking the top-3 in a given year.

 
I guess it depends on how you look at "Historical"

Table for the last 5 seasons combined:

  1. Man City - 398
  2. Man United - 378
  3. Arsenal - 368
  4. Chelsea - 358
  5. Spurs - 344
  6. Liverpool - 319
  7. Everton - 285
  8. Stoke - 242
  9. Swansea - 238
  10. Southampton - 220 (includes no points in 2011/12)
 
It changes almost nothing. Adds one spot for the big 4 (top 3 already get 4 each) and "locks" then in at 4 each. I don't think Portugal or Russia is catching Italy or England on coefficient any time soon, if ever. This is nothing compared to the major format changes made in the early 90s.
I realize that but there is a certain intangible something at play here that is diminished in the eyes of some (maybe many) of us. 

 
I realize that but there is a certain intangible something at play here that is diminished in the eyes of some (maybe many) of us. 
It definitely seems to be upsetting many fans and commentators. Perhaps I'm missreading it. I don't understand the relevance of Sinn's posts above. I don't think the current proposal, as I read it yesterday, would change anything in England last year or this year.

 
It definitely seems to be upsetting many fans and commentators. Perhaps I'm missreading it. I don't understand the relevance of Sinn's posts above. I don't think the current proposal, as I read it yesterday, would change anything in England last year or this year.
To zero in on one tiny aspect of it, I really like when Italian clubs are going head to head with English and German clubs in the CL and EL with future tournament berths on the line. It makes those games matter a little more. Ditto the French and Portugese battling to hold off the Russians and whoever is next in line.

The bigger picture is that it inches things a little closer to the crappy American exclusive-number-of-franchises model which I strongly urge all of you to join me in hating.

 
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It definitely seems to be upsetting many fans and commentators. Perhaps I'm missreading it. I don't understand the relevance of Sinn's posts above. I don't think the current proposal, as I read it yesterday, would change anything in England last year or this year.
It takes the 4th spot in England - and gives it to a team with "Historical Merit"

This would keep a team like ManUnited, for example, in the CL, if they have an off year, and finish 8th.  Rather than rewarding the top-4 teams in the league, it would be the top-3 plus a 4th who will bring in the money.

SO, the question is really, how are you defining "historical merit" - is this subjective, or some objective criteria over a number of recent years?

 
It takes the 4th spot in England - and gives it to a team with "Historical Merit"
OK. That's not what I read yesterday. My understanding was this just locks in the top 4 leagues with 4 teams each. I thought the guaranteed spots for certain clubs based on historical merit was something mentioned for consideration down the road, but not part of the current plan. 

 
It takes the 4th spot in England - and gives it to a team with "Historical Merit"

This would keep a team like ManUnited, for example, in the CL, if they have an off year, and finish 8th.  Rather than rewarding the top-4 teams in the league, it would be the top-3 plus a 4th who will bring in the money.

SO, the question is really, how are you defining "historical merit" - is this subjective, or some objective criteria over a number of recent years?
I'm sure it's just a way to make at-large bids.  I don't think it's subjective to say that Manchester United has been a more historically significant team than West Ham.  That's true by any objective criteria (just count silverware).

 
I'm sure it's just a way to make at-large bids.  I don't think it's subjective to say that Manchester United has been a more historically significant team than West Ham.  That's true by any objective criteria (just count silverware).
:shrug:   I am just going by what was reported in the article I posted above.

3 spots determined by league standing, and the 4th spot given to a team based on historical merit.  I am just noting that the term is pretty vague - not arguing that Man United is not historically significant - and my bigger point wasn't a comparison between Man U and WHU - what happens when, like last season, Man United, Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool are all out of the Top-3 - what is the criteria for deciding among them who deserves the "Historical Merit" slot?   If you were going for the Historically Significant - would Man United. or Liverpool for that matter, have trumped Man City's 4th place finish last season?

I figure it has to be something that combines traditional value, with recent performance - so something like a running 5-year total was what I was playing around with.

 
:shrug:   I am just going by what was reported in the article I posted above.

3 spots determined by league standing, and the 4th spot given to a team based on historical merit.  I am just noting that the term is pretty vague - not arguing that Man United is not historically significant - and my bigger point wasn't a comparison between Man U and WHU - what happens when, like last season, Man United, Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool are all out of the Top-3 - what is the criteria for deciding among them who deserves the "Historical Merit" slot?   If you were going for the Historically Significant - would Man United. or Liverpool for that matter, have trumped Man City's 4th place finish last season?

I figure it has to be something that combines traditional value, with recent performance - so something like a running 5-year total was what I was playing around with.
What happens, I'd imagine, is that they pick one, everyone argues about the pick a little, and then they play the tournament and people forget about it.  Just like when the NCCAAs pick at-large teams.  And then the next time, it's one of the other historical teams' turn.  It's a way of ensuring Man U and Liverpool and Arsenal, and maybe Chelsea and City that they won't go more than 4 years or so without a CL berth. 

It's not meant to be fair.  It's meant to protect big money teams because big money teams make more money for the tournament.  Obviously, I understand objections to that, but I don't think it's very mysterious what they're trying to do. 

 
Where's Trump... we need to make this thread great again.

P.S. there's, umm, real soccer to talk about now guys!

 
It's time for another round of "RHE Talks About the Arsenal Rumors" --

Gabriel -- One day after Gabriel proclaimed his ankle injury "not too bad", Wenger has confirmed that Gabriel is out for two months.  As of now, Kos would partner with either Chambers or Holding (or maybe Boniek or Coquelin?).  Which brings us to:

Mustafi -- Price is apparently 30 million.  Some reports say Arsenal will meet it, others no. 

Bony -- Arsenal apparently interested, but Arsense can't decide whether to bid 30 million.   Seems fishy to me that City could actually make money considering Bony's relative failure there.  For the right price, I'd like this deal as I've often felt that what Arsenal needs is a 1B to Giroud's 1A and not a full Giroud replacement.  But my guess this is just the media playing the connect the player to a logical destination game.

Jonny Evans -- I don't even want to talk about it.

And finally, I'm going to invent my own rumor.

Carvalho -- Available on a free from Monaco.  Still looked decent in the Euros.  Typical cheeky Aresene buy. 

 
EPL predictions sure to be wrong:

1.  Man United - TSO has assembled the best team money can buy, outside of Spain and Germany.  It remains to see how he will manage Europa, or if he sends a stand-in manager in his stead, along with a fully rotated squad.  But, barring injury(s), I think this is the team that ends up on top by the end of the season.  It may take a little bit to adjust to the style he wants to play, but I think they will figure it out soon enough.

2. Spurs - :homer:  - Nothing flashy about this team, but it is the most settled squad among the contenders, essentially returning the same line-up, which was the youngest in the league last season.  Wanyama is a better CM rotation candidate than last season, and I think Janssen will do well keeping Kane fresh all season.  Not terribly deep, and stayed mostly injury free-last season, so that will also be key again this year - but most prolific attack, and stingiest defense from a year ago, should be better this season.  Will once again be overlooked by many until about Christmas time.

3.  Man City - On paper, the team most likely to compete with Man United for most talented.  Last year was a frustrating year, for a team more-talented than the 4th place finish.  Pep has his work cut out in moving out some of the old pieces, but a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.

4.  Arsenal - might struggle at the start of the season with the injuries in the back, but should settle in for the long season and end in their preferred 4th slot.

5.  Liverpool - Klopp, no European distractions, but it still feels like they are accumulating players more than they are building a team.  A good team, but Klopp is just killing time until the German National team job opens up in a couple of years.

6.  Chelsea - This may be optimistic.  New coach, new system, same old players - emphasis on old.  I expect Chelsea to struggle to get back to top-4 status until they can make some of the sweeping changes United made this summer.

7.  Everton - top-5 or 6 maybe out of reach for the near term.  But I like what Koeman did at Soton, and I think they will be right at the top of that next tier.  Lets see how they spend the Stones (and maybe Lukaku) money.

8. Leicester City - not quite the highs of winning the league in 2016, nor the lows of fighting off relegation of 2015.  Not a deep squad, but talented in what they do.  If they can hold onto Mahrez, they can be in the mix for a Euro slot, if they can sign Gabigol, I might move them ahead of Man United...

9. Soton - Love what they did with Koeman - really don't know how the new manager will settle, but always a fun team to watch, and I am FM-nerd-fan of Hojbjerg, so I hope he settles well.

10.  Meh - the rest don't matter.  Hull is certain to be relegated, I'll go with West Brom and Middlesbrough to join Hull in the Championship in 2017/18

 
The Cole's are taking over the US domestic pyramid :)

Ashley Cole is in MLS

Joe Cole is in NASL

Carlton Cole is in USL

Good to see Chelsea performing as a feeder team :)

 
It's time for another round of "RHE Talks About the Arsenal Rumors" --

Gabriel -- One day after Gabriel proclaimed his ankle injury "not too bad", Wenger has confirmed that Gabriel is out for two months.  As of now, Kos would partner with either Chambers or Holding (or maybe Boniek or Coquelin?).  Which brings us to:

Mustafi -- Price is apparently 30 million.  Some reports say Arsenal will meet it, others no. 

Bony -- Arsenal apparently interested, but Arsense can't decide whether to bid 30 million.   Seems fishy to me that City could actually make money considering Bony's relative failure there.  For the right price, I'd like this deal as I've often felt that what Arsenal needs is a 1B to Giroud's 1A and not a full Giroud replacement.  But my guess this is just the media playing the connect the player to a logical destination game.

Jonny Evans -- I don't even want to talk about it.

And finally, I'm going to invent my own rumor.

Carvalho -- Available on a free from Monaco.  Still looked decent in the Euros.  Typical cheeky Aresene buy. 
If looked decent means got benched for Fonte after giving away a gagillion free kicks because he's way to slow to react....Then yes, he looked decent

 
Damn, never mind...it wasn't witty to start  with... :bag: .... actually, I think every @Kafka post from here on in ( & prior), should end with  :bag: .
I really hate that whatever my last quoted thing is, always stays in my reply box. that doesn't really explain what's going on above, but thought it was the right time to share my annoyance... in solidarity... I guess.

 
I get the idea with the historical merit change, but I think it will fail spectacularly and would make the pool of teams even worse, as you're passing up a team that earned it and giving it to a team that wasn't as good.

Overall, I think it's like implementing the BCS in college football when a playoff was needed.  It doesn't fix the issue and it's not nearly enough.

I know I got blasted for suggesting that there were issues with the Champions League, but I stand by my opinions on that.  Barcelona playing 6 games over 3 months in a group stage that they are going to blitz through isn't compelling.

The ultimate problem is that the Champions League is TOO FAIR to crappy leagues and teams.  They should still get a shot to win it, by having a tournament, but there are too many bad teams in the group stages.  

My opinions on how to change it are irrelevant, but the ultimate issues aren't.  The group stages have a ton of boring games and have become quite predictable.  Only by filling pot 3 and pot 4 with better teams will that change.

 
I am learning to dislike many of Shader's post I fear

I have never seen so much snobbery bundled with so little historical knowledge.

Basically every post comes down to "If it is not the EPL, it sucks".

 
I get the idea with the historical merit change, but I think it will fail spectacularly and would make the pool of teams even worse, as you're passing up a team that earned it and giving it to a team that wasn't as good.

Overall, I think it's like implementing the BCS in college football when a playoff was needed.  It doesn't fix the issue and it's not nearly enough.

I know I got blasted for suggesting that there were issues with the Champions League, but I stand by my opinions on that.  Barcelona playing 6 games over 3 months in a group stage that they are going to blitz through isn't compelling.

The ultimate problem is that the Champions League is TOO FAIR to crappy leagues and teams.  They should still get a shot to win it, by having a tournament, but there are too many bad teams in the group stages.  

My opinions on how to change it are irrelevant, but the ultimate issues aren't.  The group stages have a ton of boring games and have become quite predictable.  Only by filling pot 3 and pot 4 with better teams will that change.
see- I LOVE watching the minnows get to play the barcas, bm and rms in their tiny and strange home stadiums, regardless of the outcome. but sometimes results are gotten and history made, even if the top teams still always rise to the top. it's also what makes the WC so great- I don't love that because I get to see Germany, Italy, Brazil, etc beat people... I love it because of the rest of the teams. seeing the huge variety of payrolls, qualities and styles is completely compelling to me and part of what's great about the CL as well.

 
SF, great post.  You've encouraged me to share my thoughts on the upcoming season, after most of the big moves have been completed.

1. Man United - I hate them, I hate their team, I hate their money, but I can't shake the idea that Mourinho has the perfect Mourinho team.  He has an elite GK, Zlatan is still playing at a high level, he has some youth, and Pogba should give that midfield a boost of energy and scoring ability.  Man U was a pretty solid defense last year, and I only imagine that will get better as Mourinho parks the bus when he needs to and organizes the team perfectly.  I'd like nothing more than them to completely fall apart, but I don't see it happening.

2. Man City - KDB/Aguero/Sane/Sterling/Silva, they are loaded offensively.  Ultimately I think their defensive short-comings will keep them from the title.  They'll beat up and dominate the bottom tier of this league, but they'll allow too many goals to the good teams to win the league.

3. Liverpool - SF had to be joking with his Pool analysis.  He's building the epitome of a team, that's literally his strongest quality.  His players play together, work hard, and run through walls for him.  No Europe to mess with, he'll have this team focused.  I've seen signs that the defense is getting better, which is really what needs to happen to get top 4.  This team is loaded with scorers, however, and will be one of the top scoring teams in the EPL, as they were the 2nd half of last season.  He's shifted out (or about to shift out) all players that don't really fit his system and brought in guys that will work hard and press.  I think LIV takes advantage of all the new managers, plays as a team, scores a ton of goals, and probably concedes a few more than we'd like.  Hopefully Karius is a revelation when he returns in 6-7 weeks.

4. Tottenham - I think the 4th spot is up for grabs, but Tottenham gets it over Arsenal (despite a long trend in the other direction) because I think they are young, play hard and didn't have a lot of change.  That being said, I think they are the most at risk to plummet from the top four and finish 7th or 8th.  They have more fixtures, I don't see a lot of depth, and I think they beat up on an EPL that was really down last year.  Chelsea, LIV (especially early on) and ManU were dumpster fires, and Tottenham took advantage.  That being said, they are VERY established as a team, and don't have a lot of weak links, so I think they'll be top four.

5. Arsenal - I work with a few Arsenal fans and they are really worried that they are being left behind.  To this point they've been a model of stability in an unstable EPL.  Nothing lasts forever though, and I think that is all comes apart for them this season.  Now understand, "all coming apart" and finishing 5th is a testament to how stable Wenger's organization is.  But they are simply refusing to adapt to inflation, they are likely to panic on a buy or two in the next week, and Wenger is now surrounded by a bunch of elite coaches.  Also, their defense looks extremely shaky.  If you think they are panicking now, imagine how the fanbase will react if Liverpool put 3-4 goals by them on Sunday.

6. Chelsea - Chelsea is really in trouble if they miss the CL this season.  I think by predicting ARS/CHE 5 and 6, I'm showing that I believe that the "Big Four" is a thing of the past.  The new reality is that there are 6 big teams, and West Ham is knocking on the door of making that 7.  Like Arsenal, their only really impactful signing is a solid midfielder and while that might bring some stability, I see way too many defensive problems.  Their entire defensive looks old and I just don't see that they've done anything to suddenly cause them to jump back to the top.  Even signing Lukaku wouldn't cause me to think much differently about them, as I just think this team has gotten older really fast and is hoping that Conte is going to magically reverse things.  Yeah, they were the EPL champions two years ago, but they had a really hard fall.  Also, while Conte is very similar to Klopp in his focus on hard training and intense fitness, Chelsea is much older than Liverpool...will they tire out quicker?

7. West Ham - They signed Ayew, they are in a new stadium and the fans are full of belief.  If they sign Bacca, they can really make some noise.  That being said, I think that they still have a year or two of team building to really get to the elite levels that they want to.  There were a few too many Payet miracles last year, and I don't see all those going in the net this season.  

8. Leicester - I think Ranieri knows that it's going to be a LONG time until Leicester is back in the Champions League.  I think you'll see him put all his energy into qualifying for the knockout rounds and making a little run.  Nothing would be a sweeter ending to this tale than a run to the round of 8 in the CL.  The fact that they are in pot 1 makes that a little more possible, as they don't have to face the elite teams in the Group Rounds.  I like Musa, I like D.Gray and I think their defense will still be stout, but I think Leicester will struggle to finish 8th.  If I'm behind honest, I think Everton or Southampton will sneak up here and that Leicester will be happy finishing mid-table, but out of respect for their amazing accomplishment last year, I'm not going to drop them that low.  

 
I am learning to dislike many of Shader's post I fear

I have never seen so much snobbery bundled with so little historical knowledge.

Basically every post comes down to "If it is not the EPL, it sucks".
Seriously, I try to talk soccer and get slammed all the time.  I don't get it.  Nowhere in there did I say that non-epl teams suck or did I talk about the merits of the EPL.  I think you're seeing what you want to see in there.  

I don't have a ton of historical knowledge.  I've admitted that.

I scan through page after page of boring MLS posts but don't respond negatively to those, so if you don't like them, feel free to ignore.

 
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Seriously, I try to talk soccer and get slammed by half of you all the time.  I don't get it.  Nowhere in there did I say that non-epl teams suck or did I talk about the merits of the EPL.  I think you're seeing what you want to see in there.  
I'm not exactly sure what andy's referring to, re: epl... but the "this needs to be fixed" schtick is an immediate hot-button red flag for those of us who have been fans/players of the sport for a long time. its' the equivalent of US non-soccer sports fans watching a couple of games in the WC and then telling us how to fix soccer; typically misinformed, ignorant and with malicious intent. not saying that's what you're up to at all- but just looking for an explanation of why a lot of your posts come across wrong

 

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