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***Official Soccer Discussion Thread*** (7 Viewers)

Dinsy Ejotuz said:
LFC fans are already melting down, the assumption being whatever happens will benefit United and City.  Which seems kinda dumb. 

PSG, the leader in the clubhouse in terms of potential UEFA graft, can't be very happy about having to redraw and potentially losing United.
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I was looking forward to Ronaldo vs. Messi - United aren't winning it this year so getting a compelling match-up would be nice.

 
Sinn Fein said:
CL Draw:

Benfica v Real
Villarreal v Man City
Atletico v Bayern
Salzburg v Liverpool
Inter v Ajax
Sporting v Juventus
Chelsea v Lille
PSG v Man United
Click to expand...




Re-draw:

Bayern-Salzburg
Man City-Sporting
Ajax-Benfica
Chelsea-Lille
Atletico-Man Utd
Villarreal-Juventus
Inter-Liverpool
PSG-Real Madrid

 
Chances of advancing to Quarters, per 538 (usually won't differ much from oddsmakers):

  • Man. City 87%
  • Bayern Munich 83%
  • Chelsea 82%
  • Ajax 75%
  • Liverpool 68%
  • Atlético Madrid 59%
  • Real Madrid 54%
  • Juventus 53%
  • Villarreal 47%
  • PSG 46%
  • Man. United 41%
  • Inter Milan 32%
  • Benfica 25%
  • Lille 18%
  • RB Salzburg 17%
  • Sporting 13%
 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Chances of advancing to Quarters, per 538 (usually won't differ much from oddsmakers):

  • Man. City 87%
  • Bayern Munich 83%
  • Chelsea 82%
  • Ajax 75%
  • Liverpool 68%
  • Atlético Madrid 59%
  • Real Madrid 54%
  • Juventus 53%
  • Villarreal 47%
  • PSG 46%
  • Man. United 41%
  • Inter Milan 32%
  • Benfica 25%
  • Lille 18%
  • RB Salzburg 17%
  • Sporting 13%
Click to expand...
Geez, I guess I stand corrected even though I don't understand it.

Juve is still a giant club and still 6th in Serie A and still have some top quality players and finished with 15 points, winning their group with Chelsea in it.  Villareal finished with 10 points and only 3 wins, having to win their last match, and sit 13th in La Liga.  They also don't have the kind of depth that Juve does. 

What am I missing that makes this matchup so close?

 
roadkill1292 said:
I think Inter is a really dangerous bunch.
Click to expand...
Yep.  Top of the table in Italy, +28 GD with 43 goals scored through 17, quality players.  Hate this for Liverpool and similarly don't see them as favored as above even though I still think they are more likely to get through. 

 
gianmarco said:
Geez, I guess I stand corrected even though I don't understand it.

Juve is still a giant club and still 6th in Serie A and still have some top quality players and finished with 15 points, winning their group with Chelsea in it.  Villareal finished with 10 points and only 3 wins, having to win their last match, and sit 13th in La Liga.  They also don't have the kind of depth that Juve does. 

What am I missing that makes this matchup so close?
Click to expand...


I'm a little surprised it's that close - Juventus has had a hard time scoring and Villareal defense is still decent.  This could be a tie where only 1 goal is scored so that tends to make it more of a toss-up I guess.

 
gianmarco said:
Yep.  Top of the table in Italy, +28 GD with 43 goals scored through 17, quality players.  Hate this for Liverpool and similarly don't see them as favored as above even though I still think they are more likely to get through. 
Click to expand...
FWIW, IMO there are three truly elite teams right now -- City, Bayern and Liverpool.  Those three would be solid favorites against everyone except each other.  And maybe Ajax/Chelsea, depending on how you define "solid". 

But going from ~82% vs Salzburg to ~68% vs Inter really sucks -- it doubles the chances they get knocked out in the R16.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sinn Fein said:
Re-draw:

Bayern-Salzburg
Man City-Sporting
Ajax-Benfica
Chelsea-Lille
Atletico-Man Utd
Villarreal-Juventus
Inter-Liverpool
PSG-Real Madrid
Click to expand...


My picks - homer pick for United but maybe by the time they play Rag will have them looking better.  Assuming the "favorites" win that's some great quarterfinal match-ups that would be possible.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
FWIW, IMO there are three truly elite teams right now -- City, Bayern and Liverpool.  Those three would be solid favorites against everyone except each other.  And maybe Ajax/Chelsea, depending on how you define "solid". 

But going from ~82% vs Salzburg to ~68% vs Inter really sucks -- it doubles the chances they get knocked out in the R16.
Click to expand...
I haven't seen them play this season, but RM seem to be running away things. maybe likely due more to the other squads falling off this year, but still I squad I wouldn't want to face. love them vs PSG... who has looked a hot mess to me when I've seen them- totally average everywhere...except of course those horses up front who continuously pull out results when the game didn't necessarily lean that way.

Chelsea...also falling off. hopefully Kante/Kova get healthy for this- they're a jeckyl/hyde team with/without them.

would love to see Aaronson's run continue.

 
CletiusMaximus said:
I have no interest in seeing Lille.
Click to expand...
It does provide the possibility of some history though for US fans.  Should a minor miracle happen with Weah and Pulisic both healthy at the same time, this has a chance to be the first ever yank vs yank in a UCL knock out round game.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't watch them, but feel like I've seen BM going down early goals in their bundie games... and then winning. anybody know more? when I've seen them in CL, they're lights out. wondering if there's a ***** in their armor for RBS to exploit.

 
El Floppo said:
I don't watch them, but feel like I've seen BM going down early goals in their bundie games... and then winning. anybody know more? when I've seen them in CL, they're lights out. wondering if there's a ***** in their armor for RBS to exploit.
Click to expand...


Short answer is no.  Bayern gets bored in league play is the easiest and likely accurate answer for any struggles they have there.  That one shouldn't be close, IMO.

 
AAABatteries said:
My picks - homer pick for United but maybe by the time they play Rag will have them looking better.  Assuming the "favorites" win that's some great quarterfinal match-ups that would be possible.
Click to expand...
Atlético are playing like dog #### right now, so I can't argue with going for United here.  It used to be that Atleti was a bear to score on, but their defense has been poor all season long, regardless of personnel or formation.

 
The Z Machine said:
Atlético are playing like dog #### right now, so I can't argue with going for United here.  It used to be that Atleti was a bear to score on, but their defense has been poor all season long, regardless of personnel or formation.
Click to expand...


United aren't far behind - they've played slightly better since Ole was sacked but it's a big work in progress.  I expect it to get somewhat worse before it gets better so who knows.  I do think United are more talented but are in such a state of chaos that's it's almost impossible to figure out what you'll get.  And I'm sure Atletico would be more than happy to knock Ronaldo out.

 
I just saw a fascinating stat on reddit.

Legia Warsaw are the power team in Poland.  They have won the league 7 times in the last 9 years.

After 16 games this season, they are in dead last place in the league. 

 
El Floppo said:
I don't watch them, but feel like I've seen BM going down early goals in their bundie games... and then winning. anybody know more? when I've seen them in CL, they're lights out. wondering if there's a ***** in their armor for RBS to exploit.
Click to expand...


Missing Kimmich hurts - he's apparently had a difficult time with COVID that will keep him out at least into mid January.  Although this teenager Musiala has apparently been fantastic filling in for him, I think most would say Kimmich is a huge loss.  But yeah, not much hope for the Austrians in this one.

 
AAABatteries said:
United aren't far behind - they've played slightly better since Ole was sacked but it's a big work in progress.  I expect it to get somewhat worse before it gets better so who knows.  I do think United are more talented but are in such a state of chaos that's it's almost impossible to figure out what you'll get.  And I'm sure Atletico would be more than happy to knock Ronaldo out.
Click to expand...
They would be happy to beat him too....

Hopefully by Feb 23rd Rangnick will have them better organized and moving in the right direction.  Maybe by then he will realize a Bailly and Varane CB pairing is his best option.  :D

Also gives Athleti time to get back to their tough best.  Not sure if this matchup is better or worse than the PSG one they almost had. 

 
AAABatteries said:
Short answer is no.  Bayern gets bored in league play is the easiest and likely accurate answer for any struggles they have there.  That one shouldn't be close, IMO.
Click to expand...
Sometimes it seems like they need be behind just to get them motivated.

 
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