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*** Official Super Bowl LI Thread - Falcons vs Patriots *** (1 Viewer)

Andy Dufresne said:
He was in a collapsing pocket and throwing it away would have been grounding. It's just a silly argument.
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I'm going to disagree, respectfully.  Good Q.B.'s can get the pass in a safe location, with a receiver in the vicinity.  It is routine for mediocre Q.B.'s with just a few years in the league to successfully throw the ball away while avoiding the call. It is routine.

 
Ditkaless Wonders said:
I'm going to disagree, respectfully.  Good Q.B.'s can get the pass in a safe location, with a receiver in the vicinity.  It is routine for mediocre Q.B.'s with just a few years in the league to successfully throw the ball away while avoiding the call. It is routine.
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Not buying it. Sorry. You're implying that good QBs never take sacks. It's just not true.

But just like #Bradfordhate you're free to call it like you see it. I'll never convince you otherwise anyway.

 
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Mr. Kraft, what did you say to the commissioner up there, is that the longest you've talked to him in two years?

Kraft: (Smiles. Pauses.) We're on to Cincinatti

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Not buying it. Sorry. You're implying that good QBs never take sacks. It's just not true.

But just like #Bradfordhate you're free to call it like you see it. I'll never convince you otherwise anyway.
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Actually I am implying that good Q.B.'s do not take sacks in critical situations, at least not often.  Here's the thing, the sack is a guaranteed loss of distance and down, and it risks a fumble as well.  The throw away, if called, costs the down and distance.  If executed even to an average skill level it is not called.  The result is no worse, unless the Q.B. can't negotiate a successful throw away and throws a pick. 

You differ.  That's fine.  You are a smart fella.  I just wanted to reply to clear up what I was or was not implying. What you inferred, well that's something I don't control.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Not buying it. Sorry. You're implying that good QBs never take sacks. It's just not true.

But just like #Bradfordhate you're free to call it like you see it. I'll never convince you otherwise anyway.
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Probably not, at least with the current argument, but you might, you are a pretty persuasive fellow from what I have seen.

 
Matt Ryan should have never been in the shotgun in that scenario. That was as dumb as it gets. He's at fault for not overruling one of the dumbest play calls in NFL history but Shanahan lost the game for them. Brady would have called TO and gone over and screamed at McDaniels if he was put in that situation.

 
I'm guessing Tom Brady, with a replacement right tackle for a guy with a twisted up ankle, pre-snap, would have read the defense, seen mismatch as they cheated slightly that way, and would have audibled out of that terrible call leading to the sack.  I'm thinking something up the gut or in behind the onrushing defensive player. a nice two yard throw for a five yard gain.  I'm thinking Aaron Rodgers would have audibled to a naked bootleg for around 14 yards and a first down, in bounds, clock running. 

 
Ditkaless Wonders said:
I'm guessing Tom Brady, with a replacement right tackle for a guy with a twisted up ankle, pre-snap, would have read the defense, seen mismatch as they cheated slightly that way, and would have audibled out of that terrible call leading to the sack.  I'm thinking something up the gut or in behind the onrushing defensive player. a nice two yard throw for a five yard gain.  I'm thinking Aaron Rodgers would have audibled to a naked bootleg for around 14 yards and a first down, in bounds, clock running. 
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Agreed. That was Matt Ryan's mistake in crunch time. But he should have never been put in that situation. These people should not be coaching at this level.

 
Couple of thoughts I have:

1. We'll never know if Bryant would've made the FG. Not a gimme and super bowl pressure. 

2. I don't see Atlanta recovering easily from this. This was their big chance and they blew it. They may not even make the playoffs next year. 

 
Great game.  Like everyone else, I thought it was over in the 2nd half.  That said, I am fully in the camp of "ATL blew that game".  A lot of love is being given to Brady by the press, and I get the historical impact of the win, but I wasn't really that impressed with the way he played tonight.  I actually thought he was pretty bad for most of the game.  He couldn't avoid the pass rush at all, was consistently overthrowing open wr's and really didn't complete a pass over 15 yards the whole game (outside of the Edelman catch).  I think credit needs to be given to James White, who was fantastic (14 catches by check down Tom), the Pats D and McDaniels/Belichick for a pair of great 2 pt conversation calls.  I'm not discounting the leadership or the poise of Brady, I just thought he looked shook for most of the night.  

 
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Ditkaless Wonders said:
I'm guessing Tom Brady, with a replacement right tackle for a guy with a twisted up ankle, pre-snap, would have read the defense, seen mismatch as they cheated slightly that way, and would have audibled out of that terrible call leading to the sack.  I'm thinking something up the gut or in behind the onrushing defensive player. a nice two yard throw for a five yard gain.  I'm thinking Aaron Rodgers would have audibled to a naked bootleg for around 14 yards and a first down, in bounds, clock running. 
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Or would've told Freeman to block the right guy.

 
NREC34 said:
Couple of thoughts I have:

1. We'll never know if Bryant would've made the FG. Not a gimme and super bowl pressure. 

2. I don't see Atlanta recovering easily from this. This was their big chance and they blew it. They may not even make the playoffs next year. 
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Well, they are drafting late, have had their division mates resting up for a month already, will have a presumptively difficult schedule, and will be installing a new offensive system.  They could well regress pretty far.  Hell, they only won 11 regular season games this year.

 
jurrassic said:
Great game.  Like everyone else, I thought it was over in the 2nd half.  That said, I am fully in the camp of "ATL blew that game".  A lot of love is being given to Brady by the press, and I get the historical impact of the win, but I wasn't really that impressed with the way he played tonight.  I actually thought he was pretty bad for most of the game.  He couldn't avoid the pass rush at all, was consistently overthrowing open wr's and really didn't complete a pass over 15 yards the whole game (outside of the Edelman catch).  I think credit needs to be given to James White, who was fantastic (14 catches by check down Tom), the Pats D and McDaniels/Belichick for a pair of great 2 pt conversation calls.  I'm not discounting the leadership or the poise of Brady, I just thought he looked shook for most of the night.  
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Worst 25 point superbowl comeback i've ever seen. I have never seen a guy throw for 466 yards in the superbowl and look worse doing it. I think i saw him crying afterwards 

 
bostonfred said:
Worst 25 point superbowl comeback i've ever seen. I have never seen a guy throw for 466 yards in the superbowl and look worse doing it. I think i saw him crying afterwards 
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I feel the sarcasm.   All I'm saying is that I believe Brady's play was mostly responsible for them being down by 25 and that his wr's and rb's were just as much of a reason for the comeback as he was.  You can't look at that game and point to a single "great" throw by Brady that made a difference.  It was great routes, great catches, great moves in the open field.  That's my only point.  Great team win.  I think White should have won the MVP

 
jurrassic said:
I feel the sarcasm.   All I'm saying is that I believe Brady's play was mostly responsible for them being down by 25 and that his wr's and rb's were just as much of a reason for the comeback as he was.  You can't look at that game and point to a single "great" throw by Brady that made a difference.  It was great routes, great catches, great moves in the open field.  That's my only point.  Great team win.  I think White should have won the MVP
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Pick 6 was huge, no doubt. But there were quite a few drops in the first half as well. New England's run D was pretty responsible for most of that first half too. 

 
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jurrassic said:
I feel the sarcasm.   All I'm saying is that I believe Brady's play was mostly responsible for them being down by 25 and that his wr's and rb's were just as much of a reason for the comeback as he was.  You can't look at that game and point to a single "great" throw by Brady that made a difference.  It was great routes, great catches, great moves in the open field.  That's my only point.  Great team win.  I think White should have won the MVP
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I see the point you're trying to make but you're wrong.

 
jurrassic said:
I feel the sarcasm.   All I'm saying is that I believe Brady's play was mostly responsible for them being down by 25 and that his wr's and rb's were just as much of a reason for the comeback as he was.  You can't look at that game and point to a single "great" throw by Brady that made a difference.  It was great routes, great catches, great moves in the open field.  That's my only point.  Great team win.  I think White should have won the MVP
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Fun fact - Deion Branch won a Superboel MVP by tying an NFL record with 11 receptions in Superbowl 39, the year after catching 10 in Superbowl 38. Welker got 11 in Superbowl 42, and Shane Vereen would later get 11 receptions in Superbowl 49, and James White set the record with 14 tonight, in the same game that Brady set the NFL record for yards in a Superbowl. 4 of the top 8 receiving performances - 5 of the top 12 - came from Brady's receivers in different Superbowls. It's good yo catch passes from Brady.

Those guys all had great games, but so did Brady. Brady now holds the single game Superbowl records for most yards, most attempts, most completions, most attempts without an interception, and most consecutive completions. He set three of those records tonight, including breaking his own record for most completions. 

 
Billy Bats said:
Pick 6 was huge, no doubt. But there were quite a few drops in the first half as well. New England's run D was pretty responsible for most of that first half too. 
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There were two bad drops and like a dozen errant throws to open receivers.  The WRs were looking back to Brady grimacing time after time when he missed them on throws.

Once the Falcons' D got tired and the pass rush went away Brady was laser sharp, but he was all over the place in the first half.

 
bostonfred said:
Fun fact - Deion Branch won a Superboel MVP by tying an NFL record with 11 receptions in Superbowl 39, the year after catching 10 in Superbowl 38. Welker got 11 in Superbowl 42, and Shane Vereen would later get 11 receptions in Superbowl 49, and James White set the record with 14 tonight, in the same game that Brady set the NFL record for yards in a Superbowl. 4 of the top 8 receiving performances - 5 of the top 12 - came from Brady's receivers in different Superbowls. It's good yo catch passes from Brady.

Those guys all had great games, but so did Brady. Brady now holds the single game Superbowl records for most yards, most attempts, most completions, most attempts without an interception, and most consecutive completions. He set three of those records tonight, including breaking his own record for most completions. 
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Brady is stud central, but it's also a terrific situation designed to take advantage of these types of players.  Get 1 on 1 mismatches with guys who have incredible horizontal quickness.  They're uncoverable lined up in the middle of the field with the ability to break in any direction and a nickelback or linebacker trying to keep up with them.  They're mostly one-trick ponies in that sense but the coaches do a great job making sure that trick stays relevant.

 
Last eight NFL MVPs to play in a Super Bowl … lost. Ouch. Per ESPN Stats & Info:
 
2016  Matt Ryan (Lost)
2015  Cam Newton (Lost)
2013  Peyton Manning (Lost)
2009  Peyton Manning (Lost)
2007  Tom Brady (Lost)
2005  Shaun Alexander (Lost)
2002  Rich Gannon (Lost)
2001  Kurt Warner (Lost)

 
Falcons went backwards after the on side kick, and again after the Julio catch.

Had to like Belichick settling for the field goal lateish, when every instinct had to be saying we need a T.D.  Given a chance to panic he did not.

 
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Yeah, this game was a good example of what happens when you keep your cool.  The Pats just went out and did their job.  Over and over, failing and succeeding but never freaking out.  

I don't know how the Falcons, with all those weapons, #### the bed as badly as they did.  They had it.  They lost it. 

 
AhrnCityPahnder said:
serious question:  What the F are they going to do in cincinatti?
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Two years ago, NE got pasted 41-14 playing in KC. Reporters bombarded BB with questions about the game and if they would be benching Brady. Belichick answered question after question with "We're on to Cincinnati" (their next opponent). 

 
Loved how D. Sanders changed his pick from ATL to NE after seeing Belichick's interview with Melissa Stark.  He kept commenting on how BB pretty much was guaranteeing a win.  BB didn't say that, exactly, but the confidence in the team swayed Sanders.  That was pretty bold of Sanders to put himself out there and risk his image to ATL fans especially being a former Falcon.

That was wicked pissah.

 
BroncoFreak_2K3 said:
Should have been co-MVPs Brady (of course) and James White (total beast, NFL record for receptions).  

congrats Pats fans.
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Agree.  White came to play.  Lewis or White should have replaced Blount earlier.  Imagine White's final stat line if they went to him sooner?  Crazy.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Using my simple adjusted scoring model, here's what the numbers show.

Behind the numbers: I used only the games Brady started and all the Falcons games. I compared the score of each game by excluding that outcome and compared it to the opponent's other results. For example, if ATL scored 33 points and their opponent only allowed 20 ppg in their other games, ATL would get a score of +13 for that game. I did that for every game, both offensively and defensively, regular season and postseason.

The results showed the Patriots averaged 30.7 in unadjusted ppg on offense, +8.7 adjusted ppg on offense, allowed 14.9 ppg on defense, and allowed -4.9 adjusted ppg on defense.

The Falcons averaged 34.4 in unadjusted ppg on offense, +11.8 adjusted ppg on offense, 24.8 ppg on defense, and allowed +1.3 adjusted ppg on defense.

Running the numbers . . .

NE OFF 30.7 ppg
NE OFF +8.7 adjusted ppg
ATL DEF 24.8 ppg allowed
ATL DEF +1.3 adjusted ppg allowed

Add that all together and divide by two = NE expected points scored = 32.75

ATL OFF 34.4 ppg
ATL OFF +11.8 adjusted ppg
NE DEF 14.9 ppg allowed
NE DEF -4.9 adjusted ppg allowed

Add that all up and divide by two = ATL expected points scored = 28.1 

According to this model, NE will win 33-28.
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People laughed at my number crunching and analyses. It didn't look possible and was a wild ride to get there, but in the end, I was off by a single point. Drops mic. 

 
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