Thunderlips
Footballguy
For whatever reason, the Eagles DBs played off the Giants WRS. I imagine that Mills/Robinson will play tighter while Darby will go with Cooks and give him a little cushion.
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***Official Super Bowl LII Thread*** - Eagles vs Patriots (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter East Coast Bias
- Start date
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
But the bolded part is the most revealing stat to me. 5 QBs have made it to the SB and none of them have won. Why is that? Is it just a fluke or is there something more to it?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I would have to go back and look to see who the QB's and teams were to try to give an educated guess. To be clear, there have been top passing QB's that have led the league in passing that won SB's . . . just not in the year they won. Warner, Brees, Roethlisberger, Manning, Brady, Favre, Elway all come to mind immediately . . . just not the season they won a ring. Other guys that you would think led the leagues in passing never did (Montana or Young for example).
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Yeah I would be curious what the makeup of those 5 teams were? Did they have a glaring weakness in some area that was exploited by their opponent in the SuperBowl. How did they fare during the rest of the playoffs (i.e. did they breeze through or struggle?). I'm guessing one of them was the 2001? Warner Rams and one was the Brady/Moss team that loss to the Giants?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Could be possibly be that their defenses weren’t that great and they had to throw more than usual? Like say, these Patriots?!? Just spitballing.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That was my first thought. Leading the league in passing generally indicates playing from behind & engaging in shootouts.Could be possibly be that their defenses weren’t that great and they had to throw more than usual? Like say, these Patriots?!? Just spitballing.
FWIW I think he ‘07 Pats had a significantly better defense / pass rush than the ‘17 Pats. I’ll have to look at their secondary to compare as I don’t recall off-hand, but that ‘07 team was able to pressure / sack opposing QBs. Not exactly a strength of this year’s Patriots D.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I guess so. Just thinking of the 2 examples I gave of the 2001 Rams and the Brady/Moss Patriots. Both of those teams were juggernauts in the regular season and I'm pretty sure their defenses weren't major liabilities (actually I think that Rams defense was top 10?). But I'd be curious about the other 3 teams.Could be possibly be that their defenses weren’t that great and they had to throw more than usual? Like say, these Patriots?!? Just spitballing.
Bossman
Footballguy
I love the fact that peoples feeling for this game is all over the place.
Pats win in a close one, PHI by two scores, etc, etc.
With these teams playing the way they are, really wouldn't surprise me whichever way this game goes.
PHI has shown promise on both sides of the ball. Pats defense can be suspect. Pats offense can be dominating.
Probably be a good game but would anyone be surprised if it is a blowout either way?
Pats win in a close one, PHI by two scores, etc, etc.
With these teams playing the way they are, really wouldn't surprise me whichever way this game goes.
PHI has shown promise on both sides of the ball. Pats defense can be suspect. Pats offense can be dominating.
Probably be a good game but would anyone be surprised if it is a blowout either way?
I don't know how this game is going to play out, but I'd be surprised if either team wins in a blowout. Philly's defense is too good for that and Bellichick, in general, is too good for that. I haven't made a prediction yet. Mostly because I just can't get a good read on it. Before the playoffs, I said that Philly has a chance to make the Super Bowl if they play great defense and Foles doesn't screw up. Just needed him to play average and take care of the ball. But I didn't think they stood a chance against the Patriots if they happened to make it. But now that I've seen what Foles and the offense was able to do against the best defense in the league in the championship game, I give them a good shot at winning it. But Dion Lewis and Gronk concern me. Plus Brady's ability to bring them back in big games. The Pats have a much better chance of catching up if Philly gets out to a 2+ score lead. I don't think Philly would be able to do that. I can't wait for the game. So curious to see how it plays out.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Yeah. I'd be pretty shocked if PHI blows them out. That's where my fear of the Brady/Belicheck Mystique comes into play; I don't think it will be easy for Philly.
ETA: As a Philly fan though....there's ALWAYS the thought that NE will blow their doors off in the back of my head.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d be a little surprised by a blowout.
Philly D is too good, and Brady, through whatever Faustian deal he made with de debbil while playing at Serra High School, will sell the very last bit of his souls to find a way to keep it close.
That said, IF it’s a blowout (say, a win by 2 scores), IMO the Eagles are the only one of these two teams capable of that.
The Eagles offense made mince meat out of arguably the best defense in the NFL, certainly the best in the NFC.
Safe to say MIN D >>> NEP D.
For all the attention the comeback wins get, it sort of gets lost in the mix that the Patriots offense has struggled significantly at times against teams without elite defenses this year. JAX certainly didn’t play “elite” defense in the postseason, and the Pats were down 2 scores in that game. Arguably Jacksonville let off the gas, tried to play safe & snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Credit where due, New England executed when they had to, but let’s not put too much lipstick on that pig - Pats offense struggled for much of that game, as they have several times this season. And more importantly, the Pats defense let Blake Bortles & Co beat them. Hardly a world-beater offense. And the Pats seem to be employing a “screen door” run defense, which plays heavily into the Eagles strengths.
Unless the Eagles OC is blind & stupid, they’re gonna run early and often against NE. And then they’ll work play action off that run game. It should be highly effective.
And while I’m on the subject, I’ve not seen much discussion about Blount, and the ability & insight he brings to this game. IMO he’s a real wildcard - he knows the Pats offense intimately. He is also exactly the type of bruising back the Pats have struggled with.
I don’t buy into “revenge game” hype, but there’s something to the Pats having to face Blount in this game that I think works to the Eagles advantage.
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babydemon90
Footballguy
Interestingly - if you look at PPG allowed in away games (assuming neither team has HFA in the crowd), the Pats have been much better then the Vikings (or the Eagles). of course, then you're down to an 8 game sample size - 3 of which are divisional opponents - so it's probably hard to read too much into small swings. Ironically all New England's game where they had a defensive letdown were at home (KC, Houston, Carolina).
It's probably better to look at defensive PPG allowed as compared to avg PPG scored by the team you faced, so you would then get a better comparison of how your defense scored in relation to everyone else's defense. I'm not sure of a good site to go for that level of detail though. Could probably do it by hand later
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Vegas LOVES people that base their decisions on the last game vs. long-term results.
What happened in the championship games is not much of a predictor of what will happen. Either team can win, but saying the Eagles will romp because they destroyed the Vikings in Philadelphia seems wrong on so many levels.
In fact, in the prior SB’s, more teams have won playing mediocre or close games the game before the SB than teams that won blowouts the week before.
What happened in the championship games is not much of a predictor of what will happen. Either team can win, but saying the Eagles will romp because they destroyed the Vikings in Philadelphia seems wrong on so many levels.
In fact, in the prior SB’s, more teams have won playing mediocre or close games the game before the SB than teams that won blowouts the week before.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I already did this and posted the results in the first few pages of this thread. The projection was pretty much a toss up with PHI about a half point favorite.Interestingly - if you look at PPG allowed in away games (assuming neither team has HFA in the crowd), the Pats have been much better then the Vikings (or the Eagles). of course, then you're down to an 8 game sample size - 3 of which are divisional opponents - so it's probably hard to read too much into small swings. Ironically all New England's game where they had a defensive letdown were at home (KC, Houston, Carolina).
It's probably better to look at defensive PPG allowed as compared to avg PPG scored by the team you faced, so you would then get a better comparison of how your defense scored in relation to everyone else's defense. I'm not sure of a good site to go for that level of detail though. Could probably do it by hand later
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
One might also want to look at QB pressure - QB hits & sacks. And turnover ratio. FF & Ints.babydemon90 said:Interestingly - if you look at PPG allowed in away games (assuming neither team has HFA in the crowd), the Pats have been much better then the Vikings (or the Eagles). of course, then you're down to an 8 game sample size - 3 of which are divisional opponents - so it's probably hard to read too much into small swings. Ironically all New England's game where they had a defensive letdown were at home (KC, Houston, Carolina).
It's probably better to look at defensive PPG allowed as compared to avg PPG scored by the team you faced, so you would then get a better comparison of how your defense scored in relation to everyone else's defense. I'm not sure of a good site to go for that level of detail though. Could probably do it by hand later
PPG is one part of defense, but it’s certainly not everything.
I’d be willing to bet (without even looking at the #s) that the Eagles have been more effective with pass rush & have a better turnover ratio than the Pats.
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jon007
Footballguy
I think this pretty much sums up what the nation is thinking about the Superbowl.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljMdEseZs9M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljMdEseZs9M
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Banter with stats, fans, players, cities, etc aside. @Anarchy99 you bring great stuff statistically. But this game will be won by the game planning/coaching. Of course the Patriots have the advantage in coaching experience but Pederson is superior to Reid, especially without the cheating factor incorporated. I doubt Foles will go out drinking pre game like McNabb. Both of which more than offsets the coaching advantage. It should be a very entertaining game.
need2know
Footballguy
at the dog mask at the end. good stuff
JetMaxx
Footballguy
JetMaxx
Footballguy
@Anarchy99 please share the stastical advantage of knowing the other teams’ play before it happens. And the opposite if said is unknown.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
Serious question:
Any of you Eagles fans calling the upset actually believe it enough to have money on Philly money line at 1.5 to 1? Or even Philly +5?
Or is this one of those things where we get “I don’t bet on my team” / “my uncle daddy had a gambling problem” / “my whole bankroll is tied up in pseudoephedrine” excuses thing?
I mean... free money! AMIRITE?!
Any of you Eagles fans calling the upset actually believe it enough to have money on Philly money line at 1.5 to 1? Or even Philly +5?
Or is this one of those things where we get “I don’t bet on my team” / “my uncle daddy had a gambling problem” / “my whole bankroll is tied up in pseudoephedrine” excuses thing?
I mean... free money! AMIRITE?!
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fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I'm not an Eagles fan but I did bet a decent sized bet on the Eagles money line. I know all about New England but I think this Eagles team matches up very well against them. I just thought the money line odds were good enough that I couldn't pass up.Serious question:
Any of you Eagles fans calling the upset actually believe it enough to have money on Philly money line at 1.5 to 1? Or even Philly +5?
Or is this one of those things where we get “I don’t bet on my team” / “my uncle daddy had a gambling problem” / “my whole bankroll is tied up in Bitcoin” excuses thing?
I mean... free money! AMIRITE?!
Bossman
Footballguy
and imagine how much better NE would be if they didn't lose a 1st and 4th rd draft pick two years ago because footballs were 0.5 lbs under-inflated.
Maybe we'd be looking at a quality 2nd year DE or OLB with that late 1st rd pick.
modogg
Footballguy
gambling is wrong, and not encouraged. Of course nobody would dare put money on the Eagles, especially in the middle of the seasonSerious question:
Any of you Eagles fans calling the upset actually believe it enough to have money on Philly money line at 1.5 to 1? Or even Philly +5?
Or is this one of those things where we get “I don’t bet on my team” / “my uncle daddy had a gambling problem” / “my whole bankroll is tied up in pseudoephedrine” excuses thing?
I mean... free money! AMIRITE?!
:Philadelphia Eagles +650
Odds to win the 2018 Super Bowl LII
Scheduled :10/19/17 8:25 PM (EST)
Accepted:10/19/17 8:01 PM (EST)
Sport:Football - Contest Wager
Info:Odds to win the 2018 Super Bowl LII
Ticket #:195957321
Risk/Win:$200.00/$1300.00
Outcome
ending
Odds to win the 2018 Super Bowl LII
Scheduled :10/19/17 8:25 PM (EST)
Accepted:10/19/17 8:01 PM (EST)
Sport:Football - Contest Wager
Info:Odds to win the 2018 Super Bowl LII
Ticket #:195957321
Risk/Win:$200.00/$1300.00
Outcome
ending
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You mean like how everyone from New England coaches to us lugs watching at home on couches knew exactly what the Jaguars were going to run on 1st down the entire second half?
Sure felt like a big advantage.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Most of the money is coming in on Philly. Surely, some of that has to be from Philly fans.Serious question:
Any of you Eagles fans calling the upset actually believe it enough to have money on Philly money line at 1.5 to 1? Or even Philly +5?
Or is this one of those things where we get “I don’t bet on my team” / “my uncle daddy had a gambling problem” / “my whole bankroll is tied up in pseudoephedrine” excuses thing?
I mean... free money! AMIRITE?!
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Yep. Head of Bovada was on WIP....said it's coming in 65%-35% on PHI and at this point and that Bovada is rooting for NE...
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
Well no kidding, but the big three all came off as humble and nice guys. (Kraft, Hoodie and Brady)
need2know
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The projected spread before we knew the actual teams was set at 7. Once the games play out, the spread got set lower.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
[icon]
Insoxicated
gambling is wrong, and not encouraged. Of course nobody would dare put money on the Eagles, especially in the middle of the season
Philadelphia Eagles +650
Odds to win the 2018 Super Bowl LII
Scheduled :10/19/17 8:25 PM (EST)
Accepted:10/19/17 8:01 PM (EST)
Sport:Football - Contest Wager
Info:Odds to win the 2018 Super Bowl LII
Ticket #:195957321
Risk/Win:$200.00/$1300.00
Outcome
I knew YOU would have cash down GBI’m talking about the fans in here, specifically
This. Opened at 5.5 or so most everywhere
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Yes, it was 5.5-6 after the Eagles blew out the Vikings and the Pats struggled against the Jags.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As has been discussed, the line is moving based on PHI blowing out MIN and NE squeaking by JAX. I mentioned earlier that historically a blowout paired with a close game is not really indicative of much of anything, and if anything might show that the teams barely won might have had an advantage based on how things played out. In the SB era, here were the years when one team won by three possessions (17 points or more) in a championship game paired with a team that won in a single possession game in a championship game:
2017 NE +4
2017 PHI +31
2015 DEN +2 defeated CAR +34
2014 NEP +38 defeated SEA +6
2006 IND +4 defeated CHI +25
1999 STL +5 defeated TEN +19
1991 WAS +31 defeated BUF +3
1990 NYG +2 defeated BUF +48
1986 NYG +17 defeated DEN +3
1981 SFO +1 defeated CIN +20
1977 DAL +17 defeated DEN +3
1975 PIT +6 defeated DAL +30
1972 MIA +4 defeated WAS +23
1968 NYJ +4 defeated BAL:+34
1967 GBP +4 defeated OAK +33
1966 GBP +7 defeated KCC +24
In 14 other SB's, the team that won by 17 or more points the game before went 4-10.
Clearly that has no direct impact on what happens on the field on Sunday, but it certainly does show in the past a trend that the blow out winners often did not perform as well after a convincing victory.
2017 NE +4
2017 PHI +31
2015 DEN +2 defeated CAR +34
2014 NEP +38 defeated SEA +6
2006 IND +4 defeated CHI +25
1999 STL +5 defeated TEN +19
1991 WAS +31 defeated BUF +3
1990 NYG +2 defeated BUF +48
1986 NYG +17 defeated DEN +3
1981 SFO +1 defeated CIN +20
1977 DAL +17 defeated DEN +3
1975 PIT +6 defeated DAL +30
1972 MIA +4 defeated WAS +23
1968 NYJ +4 defeated BAL:+34
1967 GBP +4 defeated OAK +33
1966 GBP +7 defeated KCC +24
In 14 other SB's, the team that won by 17 or more points the game before went 4-10.
Clearly that has no direct impact on what happens on the field on Sunday, but it certainly does show in the past a trend that the blow out winners often did not perform as well after a convincing victory.
I definitely feel like the Eagles are good enough to beat New England. I am not a bettor, and for good reason. Anytime I convince myself that I'm positive of an outcome and wish I was a gambler, I end up being wrong. I'd be broke if I bet on games. I suck at predictions. But even if I was, I doubt I would bet this one. Maybe with Wentz playing, but it's hard to bet against Brady and Belichick. Super Bowls are just another day in the park for them.Serious question:
Any of you Eagles fans calling the upset actually believe it enough to have money on Philly money line at 1.5 to 1? Or even Philly +5?
Or is this one of those things where we get “I don’t bet on my team” / “my uncle daddy had a gambling problem” / “my whole bankroll is tied up in pseudoephedrine” excuses thing?
I mean... free money! AMIRITE?!
Skoo
Footballguy
Yep.Serious question:
Any of you Eagles fans calling the upset actually believe it enough to have money on Philly money line at 1.5 to 1? Or even Philly +5?
Or is this one of those things where we get “I don’t bet on my team” / “my uncle daddy had a gambling problem” / “my whole bankroll is tied up in pseudoephedrine” excuses thing?
I mean... free money! AMIRITE?!
Got anymore strawmen for us?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
A couple of people asked me to run the numbers again and see what the difference was between games with Ertz and games with Foles. A couple of things happened . . .
- With Wentz starting, PHI averaged 31.1 ppg. With Foles that dropped to 21.2 ppg. But that is in a much smaller sample size and includes a game against DAL which pretty much the Eagles had little incentive to win.
- With Foles at the helm, the Eagles defense performed better (not that a QB has anything to do with his team's defense). PHI averaged 19.2 ppg allowed with Wentz and 12.4 ppg with Foles.
- Based on net points allowed, Philadelphia saw a +11.9 point differential with Wentz and a +8.8 point differential with Foles.
I am hesitant to do this, but recomputing with just the Foles games (which doesn't make a lot of sense with only a 5 game sample size) . . .
PHI Offense 21.2 avg ppg + PHI Offense 2.0 adjusted ppg = 23.2 adjusted ppg on offense
NE Defense 18.3 avg ppg allowed + NE Defense -3.2 adjusted ppg = 15.1 adjusted ppg allowed
PHI projected score = 19.2
NE Offense 28.7 avg ppg + NE Offense +7.1 adjusted ppg = 35.8 adjusted ppg on offense
PHI Defense 12.4 avg ppg allowed + PHI Defense -8.2 adjusted ppg = 4.2 adjusted ppg on defense
NE projected score = 20
The Eagles defense only allowed a little over 8 ppg in 4 of the 5 Foles starts, which really distorts the impact of their defense in this formula. Put another way, the 5 Foles games extended over 16 games, the defense would have only allowed 198 points over a full season based on how well they performed in those games. To put things into proper context and perspective, only 3 teams in the salary cap era (since 1994) allowed fewer than 200 points in a season (2002 TB, 2000 BAL, 2000 TEN). Only 2 other teams gave up less than 200 points since 1979 (CHI in 1985 and 1986).
Which brings us to the $64,000 question: how to assess the Eagles defense . . . are they really one of the rare, uber elite defenses from the past 40 years (like they have played the past month)? Are they the team that was on pace to allow 19.2 ppg (making them a Top 6 or 8 defense from this year . . . not a Top 6 or 8 defense over the past 40 years)? Something in the middle?
Add that to the burning questions involving the Eagles. The first one is which Nick Foles will show up (the one with passer ratings of 69, 59, and 9 against the Rams, Raiders, and Cowboys . . . or the one with passer ratings of 115, 100, and 141 against the Giants, Falcons, and Vikings).
Add the Eagles defense to that. Will the defense perform like the one with Wentz (over 19 ppg over 13 games with Wentz) . . . or the one over the past 4 games with Foles (8.25 ppg)?
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Are we even sure Bill Belicheck is good?
Bossman
Footballguy
My message for PHI fans ... from an experienced NE fan;
Although the anticipation is hard to take, savor these days leading up to the big game.
Once the game starts, it will go by really fast. Then suddenly you will realize that it's the 3rd qtr and your team just went down 25-3.
... and you wish you could go back. Back to these days before the game. Back to the celebrating of such a well played championship game. Back to speculations, what if's, and who will's, that you predicted would happen.
All of that coming crashing down and all of your "child on Christmas eve" exuberance is flipped upside down to a dark felling like some big bald muscle-head just slept with your girlfriend ... and she's not sorry ... and you sit silent and miserable because there is nothing you can do about it. So you just stare at the other teams players and coaches on tv ... yucking it up, celebrating, all smiles and laughing.
That is, unless you have the GOAT on your team ... and the other team has knuckleheads calling plays.
and Prince Brady rides in on a white unicorn farrtin rainbows ... a TD and 2 points, there's a chance? ...then another TD and 2 points later, TIE FREIKIN GAME! what are the odds? ... ... and he pulls you from your deepest misery .... to an unexpected place of sports fan exuberance that you've never known nor ever deserved.
So you eat that rainbow of goodness right from the source ... for the next 12 months. So Delicious.
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Normally, that would be crushing and extremely discouraging. But with Brady's age and the fact that the league MVP isn't even in the Eagles' lineup, I'd still leave the experience knowing that we have many great years ahead. I'll be watching with extreme excitement and little to no stress. Hell, New England should win easily, no? There's no way that coach and quarterback can get beat by a team with a backup quarterback that, right?
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Bossman
Footballguy
Sorry if that bothers you. We were picked to finish in third place in our division. This season has been a fairy tale. Out of the 53 points Philly has scored in the playoffs, not a single one has been scored by a player who was on last year's roster.
I won't go as far as saying 'just happy to be here'. We've gotten this far, of course I'd love to finally get a ring. But the Patriots were supposed to be here. There wasn't a single Philly fan expecting this before the season started. Or after Wentz went down. This has been an awesome season regardless of Sunday's outcome. I'm sorry if that takes some of the fun away for you. :(
Thunderlips
Footballguy
This is good schtick.
I think I'm going to go with a version of the Woody Harrleson schtick at the beginning of White Men Can't Jump when he beats Wesley Snipes on the beach court...... " I can't believe the GOAT QB and the GOAT HC got beat by a slow, white, geeky, backup QB chump (Nick Foles).
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