Sammy3469 said:
Looking at it a little more (sober) this morning, I think the vast majority is not giving up HRs. I thought they had adjusted the sim for guys with low HR/9 and HR/9+ numbers, but I don't think they necessarily did.
Back in the day, in the first few sims, the deadball guys with great HR/9 rates sometimes got hammered. Remember all those posts: "So-and-so gave up 0 HR in real life, but he's given up 15 so far this season!"? Heck, it happened to me a few times -- I remember zero-HR-allowing Eddie Plank getting shelled in WIS I.IIRC, however, this was fixed at one point. Maybe it's been tinkered with a little further.
Sammy3469 said:
There's also an interesting interplay between high BB/9 hitters having their power relatively sapped by getting too many walks this go around since the pitchers are too bad that wasn't in past SIMs. It's almost better this time to give up a walk than let the batter hit since the outcome if they hit is usually powerful (ie greater than a single).
Yep, as noted by several participants in this thread, something is wonky about walks. IIRC, isn't walk/not-a-walk the first step in the calculations of a batter-pitcher matchup? It's always been that way AFAIK, but if the imbalance is particularly bad, as you note, lots of power can get sapped. Not just HRs, but those consolation doubles that high-HR guys would rack up against low-HR pitchers.