His knowledge, work ethic, and ability and willingness to share his wealth is a prime example of why I love this forum. Chaka you are excellent reading as well. I look forward to getting off the bench and into the game as to have a dialog.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
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Ordering The Chaos (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter rockaction
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m trying to remember who I benched for him....it was many years ago. When Foster played for the Niners.Which RB2? I started Hillis one year in a title game because Forte had gotten hurt, Barber benched, and he got stopped three times at the one.
I lost by three.
rockaction
Footballguy
Looks like 2008. Steven Jackson was the leading rusher for the 49ers that day, but I gots no clue who you personally subbed in.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
I've thought a lot about this and settled on a few things. I play in a keeper league so some of these thoughts are more keeper/dynasty related but applicable in redraft, I think.
I don't watch any NCAA, combine, etc. These thoughts have netted me some hits but certainly also many misses.
1. While there is a ton of info everyone has, I believe much of it is just noise. 99% of the time, the info on the next great backup RB sneaking up amounts to nothing. As such, in cases like that I like the second mover advantage. Let someone else swoop in first, drop the guy, and then I'll move in for free. These positional changes never happen quickly it seems. This helps me free up roster space as I can still get lotto tickets that have lost their (fake) luster.
2. For rookies, watch for expectation bias. Juju Smith-Schuster is one of my hits. He was forecast to have a huge final season at USC, but it was a down year for the team. Juju was downgraded by draftniks as a result, but nothing about him actually really changed. The forecast was based on...the same draftniks?
3. Watch for non-football reasoning. Cooper Kupp comes to mind. He's too old...his combine scores were poor...25 year old players can't improve. That is my favorite one. If it sounds like people making stuff up to explain football without mentioning football, it probably is.
4. Use boards like this to get a sense of how players are valued, and use that to decide who you will be a first mover on. Likewise, use ADP to get your guys early.
5. HAVE FUN! It's just a game.
I don't watch any NCAA, combine, etc. These thoughts have netted me some hits but certainly also many misses.
1. While there is a ton of info everyone has, I believe much of it is just noise. 99% of the time, the info on the next great backup RB sneaking up amounts to nothing. As such, in cases like that I like the second mover advantage. Let someone else swoop in first, drop the guy, and then I'll move in for free. These positional changes never happen quickly it seems. This helps me free up roster space as I can still get lotto tickets that have lost their (fake) luster.
2. For rookies, watch for expectation bias. Juju Smith-Schuster is one of my hits. He was forecast to have a huge final season at USC, but it was a down year for the team. Juju was downgraded by draftniks as a result, but nothing about him actually really changed. The forecast was based on...the same draftniks?
3. Watch for non-football reasoning. Cooper Kupp comes to mind. He's too old...his combine scores were poor...25 year old players can't improve. That is my favorite one. If it sounds like people making stuff up to explain football without mentioning football, it probably is.
4. Use boards like this to get a sense of how players are valued, and use that to decide who you will be a first mover on. Likewise, use ADP to get your guys early.
5. HAVE FUN! It's just a game.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Btw in the long long time ago TSP used to have more strategy discussions like this, nice OP, Rock.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Great topic and some outstanding replies so far. I haven't read them all yet but will when I have time.
As far as how to make sense of all this information a lot of that for me just comes from experience. You could call this going with your gut as some times I can't rationally explain why I might see things different from the consensus, but when I do I trust my insticts.
I do projections and look at a lot of objective data that informs my decisions but I do not draft or trade or start based off of projections or rankings. I still go with my (objectively informed) gut.
So it is hard to explain how I filter information.
I agree with a lot of concensus opinions. I spend most of my time focusing on players where I actually have a different point of view than the norm. It is those players and areas where I seek to gain an edge on the competition for the most part because I can't with players that I pretty much agree with everyone else.
I do find discussion and debate about these differences to be useful as I certainly have incomplete information. I learn a lot from listening to other points of view that I may not have previously considered.
I have done a lot of historical research as a basis for many of my views. I think this gives me an edge some times, but at other times it is a red herring because things do change.
It's hard to say there is a systematic process to this because for me there isnt.
I just know when I see it if something is off with a consensus view on a player.
As far as how to make sense of all this information a lot of that for me just comes from experience. You could call this going with your gut as some times I can't rationally explain why I might see things different from the consensus, but when I do I trust my insticts.
I do projections and look at a lot of objective data that informs my decisions but I do not draft or trade or start based off of projections or rankings. I still go with my (objectively informed) gut.
So it is hard to explain how I filter information.
I agree with a lot of concensus opinions. I spend most of my time focusing on players where I actually have a different point of view than the norm. It is those players and areas where I seek to gain an edge on the competition for the most part because I can't with players that I pretty much agree with everyone else.
I do find discussion and debate about these differences to be useful as I certainly have incomplete information. I learn a lot from listening to other points of view that I may not have previously considered.
I have done a lot of historical research as a basis for many of my views. I think this gives me an edge some times, but at other times it is a red herring because things do change.
It's hard to say there is a systematic process to this because for me there isnt.
I just know when I see it if something is off with a consensus view on a player.
rockaction
Footballguy
Thanks, bud. Thanks to everybody for their thoughtful responses so far. One thing: Don't be afraid to get source-specific. For instance, I stream defenses. What I do is stream for about eight - nine weeks and wait for Football Outsiders' DVOA to cement itself, and then pick based upon that in general, unless there are outlying circumstances. I think all else follows, statistically. So if you do something like that and you find it works, here's a good place to share it.
amnesiac
beer is good
i am down to one league (not counting the redraft with my kids and their cousins) and i kept my dynasty idp with 53 man rosters. there’s not a lot of trading, and when there is, it’s usually pretty even or for minor players.
to me, this eliminates much of the “luck factor.”
as for my process, i watch the film (YouTube highlights). there is no substitute for learning to identify players that are just better than the others. once i committed to this, my team has gotten better every year.
i spend very little time deciding who to start each week, because it’s usually obvious.
maybe not exactly what you were asking, but this approach has made fantasy football much more enjoyable for me personally.
to me, this eliminates much of the “luck factor.”
as for my process, i watch the film (YouTube highlights). there is no substitute for learning to identify players that are just better than the others. once i committed to this, my team has gotten better every year.
i spend very little time deciding who to start each week, because it’s usually obvious.
maybe not exactly what you were asking, but this approach has made fantasy football much more enjoyable for me personally.
rockaction
Footballguy
No, man, that's good. That actually reinforces the whole "watch the player play" aspect of rotisserie that people have mentioned and it purports to take luck away by actually having observed said player, run, jump, move, catch, throw, etc. You know what you're getting and the talent speaks.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Lots of luck in FF, but it still comes down to player acquisition.
To be consistently good at FF, you have to be good at evaluating talent at all levels (draft, waivers, trades, etc.). No amount of strategy can overcome talent evaluation.
Next is strategy. Recognizing trends, analyzing dynamics, etc.
Not a detailed answer, but excellent topic.
To be consistently good at FF, you have to be good at evaluating talent at all levels (draft, waivers, trades, etc.). No amount of strategy can overcome talent evaluation.
Next is strategy. Recognizing trends, analyzing dynamics, etc.
Not a detailed answer, but excellent topic.
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Riffraff
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Oops:
which I call the "sheep syndrome" for it's blind following
(Okay, I shouldn't point that out.) Still doesn't discount from his point enough to make a difference. I'm inclined to agree with him, but not fully. I think if you devote enough time and effort to something and are paid for it -- and then spend your spare time doing it, you're better off. Even he tacitly and impliedly admits to experience as a teacher. The more time spent on a subject, the more experienced, generally. Therefore, not quite necessarily an expert, but at least more proficient at the craft.
But that said, thanks for posting.
This reminds me of a longtime league mate. He was always an active and engaged owner. This particular season, he was going through some very distracting personal issues. He left his roster intouched for most of the season. He drafted such a phenomenal team it did not matter. We called him Frank-o-matic! Niners homer. Roger Craig’s huge year.
Steel Curtainrod
Footballguy
After playing for over 20 years, the Only thing I can think of re filtering of info is that I try as best as I can to see player news through the prism which my leaguemates will see it, or at least how they should. I only play in long running dynasty leagues so generally I feel I've got a good read on the tendencies of most owners re waivers, trading, etc.
Given that we've all got the same info in the same time span, it's become more important than ever to get a jump on who it impacts and how they'll be looking to react. Before the fantasy boom, merely getting the info was a competitive advantage; now I find myself meditating on how my leaguemates will interpret it and finding an opportunity to get ahead.
Not sure if this helps.
Given that we've all got the same info in the same time span, it's become more important than ever to get a jump on who it impacts and how they'll be looking to react. Before the fantasy boom, merely getting the info was a competitive advantage; now I find myself meditating on how my leaguemates will interpret it and finding an opportunity to get ahead.
Not sure if this helps.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Thanks, KickinT. This board has been a boon to me over the years and I figure I'd try and create something of use as I am neither statistician nor talent evaluator of high order. But I try to do the best I can.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Thanks brother. I'm glad to hear someone say that (FINALLY!!!) but I'm a hack. I used to be a deep dive guy with tons of spreadsheets (I even made one this season, for fun [I'm weird like that] charting offensive line cohesion) but truly I am a 30,000 foot view guy at this point. Point being I use these forums (and PFT) for formulating my opinions, I am not a deep data driven guy anymore. So take what I say with a grain of salt, then use that salt around the rim of your margarita. And use well tequila for your margaritas because, so help me if I see you using a Fortaleza or Siete Leguas, or similar, for a mixed drink...Milt will come for you.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Good point. In long-running leagues, opponent's tendencies are an underrated way to gain an edge.
People are creatures of habit in general. FF is no different. Owners tend to do the same thing over & over (both good & bad) unless they have a major change in strategy for some reason.
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I’m not x’s and o’s or a numbers guy. I like words. I find the contributions of numbers guys fascinating. I’m more nuance. Sports Psychology. Reading between the lines of coach speak. That’s where my fun is at.
rockaction
Footballguy
Coach speak is a huge way to get an advantage regarding volume and also injury. Important tool in the tool kit.
sportsphysio
Footballguy
I also think luck is a much bigger factor in fantasy football than fantasy baseball, but I feel that primarily pertains to injuries. It seems that 25-40% of the teams just get bitten by the injury bug, which is very difficult to overcome, and an injury to 2 of your top 4-5 players can sink your season really quickly.
I think the one area in which having so much info easily available is a detriment is in regards to the “shiny new toy” syndrome. If you read a lot of “experts,” they all want to go on record to predict who is going to be the huge sleeper pick for the upcoming season. It is easy to get caught up in that hysteria (I’ve been guilty of it many times, and it has NEVER worked out in my favor), and draft unproven guys over more proven vets. It will work out on occasion (Kamara, Hunt) if drafted at a reasonable price/risk, but too many over reach on draft day.
I personally use this forum and another forum to see what players guys are talking about, then research them further on sites I trust (FFT, Fantasy Pros, Sablich Bros). This forum is an incredible resource to get a jump on the up and coming players. When making final roster decisions, and look for sites that discuss each specific matchup, which I don’t think many of my league mates do.
I think it is invaluable to have one roster spot for churning, so you aren’t fearful of taking a risk on an unexpected possible WW gold mine. I have fallen in love with my team many times and greatly overvalued players, only to miss out on a potential league winning pick up.
One final thought...I first became indoctrinated into fantasy sports by football, but quickly expanded to baseball. I have found with each passing year that baseball is becoming more enjoyable, because I feel there is so much more strategy and less “luck” incorporated into the success/demise of your team.
Oops... one more thought. I wish EVERYONE on this forum realized this is supposed to be a fun hobby; we aren’t curing cancer here or determining the course of civilization. It amazes me how so many threads get derailed because posters can’t have civilized discussions without it denigrating into a belittling contest, makes the threads unreadable.
I think the one area in which having so much info easily available is a detriment is in regards to the “shiny new toy” syndrome. If you read a lot of “experts,” they all want to go on record to predict who is going to be the huge sleeper pick for the upcoming season. It is easy to get caught up in that hysteria (I’ve been guilty of it many times, and it has NEVER worked out in my favor), and draft unproven guys over more proven vets. It will work out on occasion (Kamara, Hunt) if drafted at a reasonable price/risk, but too many over reach on draft day.
I personally use this forum and another forum to see what players guys are talking about, then research them further on sites I trust (FFT, Fantasy Pros, Sablich Bros). This forum is an incredible resource to get a jump on the up and coming players. When making final roster decisions, and look for sites that discuss each specific matchup, which I don’t think many of my league mates do.
I think it is invaluable to have one roster spot for churning, so you aren’t fearful of taking a risk on an unexpected possible WW gold mine. I have fallen in love with my team many times and greatly overvalued players, only to miss out on a potential league winning pick up.
One final thought...I first became indoctrinated into fantasy sports by football, but quickly expanded to baseball. I have found with each passing year that baseball is becoming more enjoyable, because I feel there is so much more strategy and less “luck” incorporated into the success/demise of your team.
Oops... one more thought. I wish EVERYONE on this forum realized this is supposed to be a fun hobby; we aren’t curing cancer here or determining the course of civilization. It amazes me how so many threads get derailed because posters can’t have civilized discussions without it denigrating into a belittling contest, makes the threads unreadable.
Chaka
Footballguy
You really seem far to reasonable to be hanging around here. My recommendation is to get out while you still can.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm doing better than I ever have in FF despite spending a lot less time on it than I used to.
A lot of that is just plugging my leaks and avoiding stupid mistakes. I don't make a lot of dumb trades anymore. In fact, I don't make many trades at all. I mostly just sit back and try to make good decisions on draft day and with waiver pickups. There's no magic bullet there. You just weigh the information and try to make the best estimates you can. In the long run, if you're being proactive and making good decisions, it will pay off.
You're right that there's a wealth of information out there, but there's still a lot of uncertainty in FF and your success will largely depend on your ability to accurately navigate that uncertainty. For example, right now you can ask the question, "How many rushing yards will Nick Chubb accumulate in his NFL career?" If you posed that question to 50 FF "experts", you'd probably get a pretty broad range of answers. Optimists might say 7000+. Skeptics might say less than 1000. The average answer is going to be a bland compromise between those two extremes (and thus "expert rankings" and "staff rankings" are generally going to yield a timid compromise that fails to take an actual firm position), yet often times in reality the actual outcome will be a lot more polarized. If you could somehow KNOW a little bit more accurately than that consensus what the real answer is, you would have an edge. This isn't random. Although luck is a factor, we're not flipping coins. We're making predictions based on qualitative and quantitative information.
Weirdly, the abundance of FF rankings and advice available to everyone can actually be viewed as an asset to a shrewd FF owner insofar as it creates a rigid, yet flawed set of valuations. The crowd says a player is worth X so we assume that he must indeed be worth X. Enough people tell us that 29 year old Antonio Brown is worth more in dynasty leagues than 20 year old JuJu Smith-Schuster that we take it for granted as truth. We draft and trade accordingly. We take AB over JuJu because we're "supposed to". Yet 2-3 years later, we might see that those valuations were based on faulty analysis and incomplete knowledge. If we'd studied the situation harder and developed our own take in a vacuum deferring to the wisdom of the crowd, maybe we would've taken a different stance. When I think about consensus rankings and the wealth of information out there on ESPN/Yahoo/FBG/etc, I don't find it intimidating because I know so much of it is going to bland, generic information that encourages people to take late bird "prove it" stances in uncertain situations where I might be willing to bet big on my instincts/analysis. That's what I find fun about FF. You get to be the GM and make all the calls. If your methods are poor, you will fail. If they're sound, you will thrive. Win or lose, I wouldn't want to hand over the keys to the autopilot because otherwise what's the point of even playing?
When I'm doing any kind of draft in FF, whether it's a devy draft, startup draft, rookie draft, or redraft, my whole process is essentially about capitalizing on consensus rankings. I lay out ADP to get an idea of where I expect people to go based on what other people think they're worth. Then I try to identify players that might be over/under valued. I then try to plan my draft around those players. I haven't done a startup in many years, but typically I only have 20-30 names on my draft sheet, maybe two players per round who look like exceptional value based on the discrepancy between what I think they're worth, and what the market thinks they're worth. If I think a guy like Tyreek Hill or Joe Mixon is a Pro Bowl talent and ESPN's staff rankings are still on the fence, that's actually great for me since they're going to help set a market price for those players that's much lower than what I'm actually willing to pay.
The hard part is getting it right enough to pay dividends though, as going out on a limb only works when the players you're targeting actually succeed. I don't think anyone has a magic bullet in terms of picking winners, but there's more access to highlights/tape than ever before if you're an "eyeball test" type of evaluator, and there's an abundance of numbers available if you want to try to mine athletic and statistical metrics. And of course you can dive into places like Twitter and identify your own set of trusted sources to help balance out your own opinions. Really it's all a big puzzle with a lot of floating pieces, and again, it comes down to uncertainty. The better you're able to parse that uncertainty compared with the average competitor, the better you'll do.
A lot of that is just plugging my leaks and avoiding stupid mistakes. I don't make a lot of dumb trades anymore. In fact, I don't make many trades at all. I mostly just sit back and try to make good decisions on draft day and with waiver pickups. There's no magic bullet there. You just weigh the information and try to make the best estimates you can. In the long run, if you're being proactive and making good decisions, it will pay off.
You're right that there's a wealth of information out there, but there's still a lot of uncertainty in FF and your success will largely depend on your ability to accurately navigate that uncertainty. For example, right now you can ask the question, "How many rushing yards will Nick Chubb accumulate in his NFL career?" If you posed that question to 50 FF "experts", you'd probably get a pretty broad range of answers. Optimists might say 7000+. Skeptics might say less than 1000. The average answer is going to be a bland compromise between those two extremes (and thus "expert rankings" and "staff rankings" are generally going to yield a timid compromise that fails to take an actual firm position), yet often times in reality the actual outcome will be a lot more polarized. If you could somehow KNOW a little bit more accurately than that consensus what the real answer is, you would have an edge. This isn't random. Although luck is a factor, we're not flipping coins. We're making predictions based on qualitative and quantitative information.
Weirdly, the abundance of FF rankings and advice available to everyone can actually be viewed as an asset to a shrewd FF owner insofar as it creates a rigid, yet flawed set of valuations. The crowd says a player is worth X so we assume that he must indeed be worth X. Enough people tell us that 29 year old Antonio Brown is worth more in dynasty leagues than 20 year old JuJu Smith-Schuster that we take it for granted as truth. We draft and trade accordingly. We take AB over JuJu because we're "supposed to". Yet 2-3 years later, we might see that those valuations were based on faulty analysis and incomplete knowledge. If we'd studied the situation harder and developed our own take in a vacuum deferring to the wisdom of the crowd, maybe we would've taken a different stance. When I think about consensus rankings and the wealth of information out there on ESPN/Yahoo/FBG/etc, I don't find it intimidating because I know so much of it is going to bland, generic information that encourages people to take late bird "prove it" stances in uncertain situations where I might be willing to bet big on my instincts/analysis. That's what I find fun about FF. You get to be the GM and make all the calls. If your methods are poor, you will fail. If they're sound, you will thrive. Win or lose, I wouldn't want to hand over the keys to the autopilot because otherwise what's the point of even playing?
When I'm doing any kind of draft in FF, whether it's a devy draft, startup draft, rookie draft, or redraft, my whole process is essentially about capitalizing on consensus rankings. I lay out ADP to get an idea of where I expect people to go based on what other people think they're worth. Then I try to identify players that might be over/under valued. I then try to plan my draft around those players. I haven't done a startup in many years, but typically I only have 20-30 names on my draft sheet, maybe two players per round who look like exceptional value based on the discrepancy between what I think they're worth, and what the market thinks they're worth. If I think a guy like Tyreek Hill or Joe Mixon is a Pro Bowl talent and ESPN's staff rankings are still on the fence, that's actually great for me since they're going to help set a market price for those players that's much lower than what I'm actually willing to pay.
The hard part is getting it right enough to pay dividends though, as going out on a limb only works when the players you're targeting actually succeed. I don't think anyone has a magic bullet in terms of picking winners, but there's more access to highlights/tape than ever before if you're an "eyeball test" type of evaluator, and there's an abundance of numbers available if you want to try to mine athletic and statistical metrics. And of course you can dive into places like Twitter and identify your own set of trusted sources to help balance out your own opinions. Really it's all a big puzzle with a lot of floating pieces, and again, it comes down to uncertainty. The better you're able to parse that uncertainty compared with the average competitor, the better you'll do.
Football Jones
Footballguy
My suggestion is to put your blinders on & "grow" some extra layers of skin.
That way, when you inevitably piss someone off, it'll roll off you like water on a duck's back.
I don't mind debating things. Disagreements can actually be refreshing if done in the proper fashion, but some people are going to hate simply because they can.
My advice is to just keep on doing what you do best. In other words, do your thing (whatever that is).
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
When I win I’m skillful.
when I lose I’m unlucky.
Signed,
-everyone who’s every played FFB.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
How do you get the 7-8 streams coming in? Multiple DTV boxes? How many streams does DTV allow? Or some other wonderful, magical system that I don't know about?
jtp1982
Footballguy
@EBF is spot on about the consensus of the fantasy media creating opportunity. Most fantasy rankings aren’t trying to get it right, that’s too risky. They’re trying to not look stupid when they get it wrong.
As far as the randomness of fantasy football, most of us like it. If we didn’t the industry would be moving toward season long point total championships and abandoning arbitrary scoring systems like points per reception.
But we like the randomness of weekly head to head matchups and getting points for a blown up screen pass so much when we’re winning, that it’s pushing the industry to value more random outcomes (like DFS), not less.
As far as the randomness of fantasy football, most of us like it. If we didn’t the industry would be moving toward season long point total championships and abandoning arbitrary scoring systems like points per reception.
But we like the randomness of weekly head to head matchups and getting points for a blown up screen pass so much when we’re winning, that it’s pushing the industry to value more random outcomes (like DFS), not less.
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh, I agree. They lie through their teeth at times, like Pete Carroll. I went on a longer sort of thing, but quelled it. Sox/Yanks are on and I can't devote full attention right now.Depends on the coach. It’s also a great way to get a surprise inactive.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s a good analogy - also the concept of value plays applies to both poker & FFB.
Omaha is my favorite game next to 7 stud. Information games. In Stud I can see 4 of your cards plus my 7, plus 4 of everyone else’s cards in the hand. Or at least as many as I’ve seen until folks fold. In Omaha I can see my 4 cards plus the board. Not as information rich as 7 stud, but still more than hold em.
People love hold em. It’s my least favorite game. Less cards = less information. Some people love to bluff, which is bigger in hold em, but not my favorite aspect of poker.
The most money you’ll ever win at poker is sitting at an Omaha table playing with 2-3 people who are killing time; waiting for their hold em games. Every hand looks amazing to them. They have no idea how much of a guppy they are.
But it comes down to making poor value plays. They’ll chase the low, not realizing there could be 4 people with the same low. They’ll pump up the pot when they hit a straight because they don’t get that with so many cards out, they’ll likely come in 4th behind 3 flushes & a boat.
Value plays in FFB are a similar proposition. Mike Evans this year was a perfect example. He’s had about the same number of receptions & yards for 4 straight seasons, and he’s a physical specimen who’s much bigger & stronger than most DBs. The TDs fluctuated wildly and people questioned his efficiency.
He fell way too far in drafts, and people who were able to identify his value have reaped huge returns. And may get even better numbers now that Winston is back behind center since he looks for Evans more than Fitzmagic did.
Tbat’s one example of identifying value.
Another might be drafting the handcuff to an oft injured RB. I shied away from Fournette because he was banged up a lot. But I neglected to draft Yeldon, which should have been my next thought process there. I failed to identify value, and this week i get to play the Yeldon owner for my lack of acumen.
Just a couple of examples. There are weekly values to identify when making roster decisions as well.
Then there’s just the gut feelings. I really want to find a way to get AP, K.Allen, Diggs, John Brown, M.Gordon & Ridley into my lineup. But I started White at RB2 (and got a nice 23+ point return) but I’ve only got 3 WR, a RB1 & a Flex left. 5 spots for those 6 players.
It’s a frustrating call, especially because my opponent is stacked. My brain tells me to bench AP & start Brown because of his heavy targets. That seems like the value play, especially since the Redskins might be on the wrong side of a shootout, on the road, in New Orleans.
My gut tells me there’s something to AP going against the Saints, and I love having players left to watch/root for on MNF.
So i’ll probably go with Brown - sometimes the value play isn’t as fun, but the right play.
I like the analogy to poker - I think it’s spot on.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Pete was exactly who I was thinking of.
Or Hoodie, who’ll talk up a player all week (or feature them all preaseason like Hogan) then *pffffft* - wet fart.
Oh I’m no stranger to confrontation. I enjoy it far too well. I love all competition. But the last thing this forum needs is a two page pissing match.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The age of a player being a issue for how people value that player has always been a way you can gain some competitive advantage.
There have been extensive studies done. Some of those studies showed that an early college break out age was a good indicator of those players being good pros (duh because they are good players) and then the idea got traction. More studies supported the conclusion and for some pretty smart people it became almost cannon.
I did a study about this for RB and I found there were very few examples of a RB who entered the league at 24 years old and had a RB one season. Only 6% of the entire population of my sample were that old as rookies. Which really only tells us that most of the players are entering the league at a younger age than this.
Yet very smart people do statistical analysis and draw conclusions that older players are bad. That they have very low success rate and so on, when if they would just step back for a minute they should realize that their whole analysis is being adversely affected by small sample size as much as if not more than all of the other 1000 unknown variables in play here.
FWIW two of the successful 24 year old rookie RB were Priest Holmes and David Johnson.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
the more preseason draft planning you do, the better your chances of success.
Mocking with real people is hands-down the single most valuable tool. I love the FBG app, as it has some value. It gets you used to who might be where in a draft ADP-wise, and helps to identify targets.
what it doesn’t do is give yoh the human nature experience - in mocks with real people, some people do dumb stuff. They reach for players. Value picks slide. And while this may never happen in a real draft, there’s a chance it may. It usually does in my experience. In my toughest, most competitive league, Adam Thielen slipped more than a round past his ADP. I don’t know why other than looking at the round, there was a run on WR, then 3-4 QBs, and then a TE. I think people get tunnel vision & target a player, and forget to check what else is out there.
because I’d mocked so much, I got in the habit of checking every list, every round. Heck, I was going to go RB/RB that turn, but I also wasn’t about to pass up Thielen. That’s obviously worked out well.
but that’s just an example - the take-away isn’t that I stole Thielen - it’s that preseason practice instilled a good habit that carried over to my real draft.
that all said, you can draft the best team and still get bit by the injury bug or have a tough schedule. I went 4-10 one year but won 10% for the points total. Now THAT is unlucky. Drafted a great team - outscored the entire league - and faced the top scoring team just about every week.
So yes - absolutely, draft prep is the single most important part of your fantasy season IMO.
if you draft a great team, your weekly decisions become a lot easier to make.
rockaction
Footballguy
This was such a great post. Thank you, EBF. I always read you on the board. If you'll pardon me for editing it, I just want to reiterate what you said. FF people move in lockstep and rigidity that is often wrong. It's fascinating to watch. There was an article in the New York Times a few years back about Sigmund Bloom and Mike Clay at PFF as among the most successful predictors who were outliers when it came to consensus. I'd try to find it, but I don't think I can. And your initial point about uncertainty is taken, too. The Chubb example is a great one. I guess at that point you have uncertainty because it's not just talent that comes into play, but situation, organization, etc. We all do that colloquially every day. I remember the Shanahan running backs as an example. Belichick's troops. All of that.
And the bolded, back to the first summation of yours that I was making, is so spot on. That's why there are great players. That's why it's fun.
Chaka
Footballguy
I appreciate it. I forget what we had a back and forth about this preseason. Was it Henry vs Lewis? If so I recall coming around to the Lewis side eventually.
You're another heavy data driven guy, maybe you and SSND should branch off and start your own magic football side gig. I'd be a customer.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
6 receivers (during football season), an antenna (rabbit ears) for a game on Fox or CBS, plus a TV hooked up to the Directv app (or sometimes just on the laptop). Not to mention you can watch multiple games on the DirecTV app (up to 4) or you can watch one of those NFL ticket channels with 4 or 8 game mixes on a big screen. It all just depends.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
You would be surprised how much you can pick up when you're used to doing it for years, but yeah, it's not optimal with so many games on. I can tape a bunch of games with the DirecTV home system (or whatever they call it) and watch them later. Plus you can watch all the games later on Gamepass, too, or even catch the replays on the NFL Network.
No, worries, I have no interest in trying to provide you with opinions on players. I was just addressing what works for me.
Chaka
Footballguy
Totally appreciate it and I bet what you can glean would surprise me.
Game pass is definitely a winner as is NFL Replay.
But having 7-8 games on would probably give me a seizure.
Dizzy
Footballguy
No doubt watching as much coverage as possible is the single biggest thing one can do to continually evaluate players once the bullets start flying. Not everyone has the time to do it, but even in the handful of games most people get to watch.. YOU GOTTA WATCH!
If for nothing else it helps in "ordering the chaos" on a weekly basis. Look at the Sony Michel and Josh Gordon threads... if that game wasn't nationally televised, how many people would realize that 2 plays are driving the stock on each of those players this week. If Brady doesn't take the plunge at the goal line, that's probably another 6 for Michel. Then the bomb... if Brady doesn't have all day to just stand there before heaving it to Gordon, Michel is all alone out in the flat... another catch for 15-20 yds (or more). Think about the impact on those player threads if things go differently and then trying to sort through it all without having seen it yourself.
