Ordering The Chaos (1 Viewer)

[NYRAGE]

No doubt watching as much coverage as possible is the single biggest thing one can do to continually evaluate players once the bullets start flying. Not everyone has the time to do it, but even in the handful of games most people get to watch.. YOU GOTTA WATCH!

If for nothing else it helps in "ordering the chaos" on a weekly basis. Look at the Sony Michel and Josh Gordon threads... if that game wasn't nationally televised, how many people would realize that 2 plays are driving the stock on each of those players this week. If Brady doesn't take the plunge at the goal line, that's probably another 6 for Michel. Then the bomb... if Brady doesn't have all day to just stand there before heaving it to Gordon, Michel is all alone out in the flat... another catch for 15-20 yds (or more). Think about the impact on those player threads if things go differently and then trying to sort through it all without having seen it yourself.

Totally agree. On the flip side, it can also be frustrating. You'll see TDs called back due to penalties (some flag on the opposite side of the field that had nothing to do with the play), guys tackled at the one, or even plays that should have been challenged, but weren't. e.g. Maybe Michel was in on that second down run. BB didn't challenge and Brady took the plunge for the td. Whether it's good or bad news for you, it's extra info that others might not know. You have to find an edge wherever you can.

Calloway is a great example of a player whose box score doesn't tell the story. If you're watching his game, you'll see how he was overthrown (and/or underthrown)  for what should have been a td. You'll see him get tackled at the one. He's had the chance for a huge game the past couple of weeks. You'll also see some drops and bad routes, hence the chatter that his time could be dialed back. 

Ebron is another example. Although he did have that bad drop in the first series, he was wide open a few times that Luck did not connect. The play where Luck threw short and Ebron was wide open running across the field resulted in Ebron getting hurt and tackled immediately instead of adding at least another 20+ yards on the reception. 

Marshawn Lynch last week could have broken for a 75-yard td, but the refs mysteriously ruled him down (Or progress stopped). He escaped down the sideline for what would have been a long td, but that won't show up on the boxscore.

There are tons of examples like this every week that you just won't see in the boxscore.  Cooks back in game 1 was interfered 2 or 3 times. That didn't help your score back in week 1, but it told you that Cooks was an integral part of the offense. Maybe you can snatch him in a trade before his numbers go off. 

 

[NYRAGE]

Totally appreciate it and I bet what you can glean would surprise me.

Game pass is definitely a winner as is NFL Replay. 

But having 7-8 games on would probably give me a seizure.

It can be a bit of an overload, especially in week 1 when you're trying to get used to it again. I've been doing it for 15-16 years, so I try to set up my tvs all close to each other to make it as efficient as possible. There is a method to the madness after all these years. Plus there is a lot of time between plays. You end up scanning around the tvs. You catch what you can and go back later into replays if you want to see something in more detail or if you miss something. 

Once a year I'll meet up with friends to watch the games in a bar. I feel completely lost. Games are spread out all over the place on different tvs. Your head is on swivel and you miss a lot. They might show the local team on a bunch of tvs, but the game you're interested in on a tiny tv in the corner. I won't be able to glean barely anything from when I go to a bar.  I'm much better in my home setting things up how I like. 

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I’ve also scored David johnson and Alvin Kamara off waivers. Anyone that even shows a pulse needs to be rostered weeks in advance. Bench spaces are where it’s at. 

Yep,

Trim your bench before the season begins by trading away marginal players for future picks then go into the season hungry looking for players with upside with a shot to start.

Always be hungry instead of content starting the season.  Have plenty of bench room and get those players with a pulse earlier than the owners who are going off of last year's results.

 

[pinkham13]

I’ve been going hard at this hobby for a long while now, over twenty five years.  Those of us who remember the fax, answering machine, and hand crunching league stats days of fantasy football will also remember that ESPN, USA Today, and the fantasy index were about it for sources.  Now how many magazines, websites, and entire tv shows do we have access to? Info overload is a real thing. I’m back full circle as a minimalist. News blogger and Shark pool are all I use in season. After years of reading posts, I’ve come to trust certain people’s analysis. An invaluable resource for success.

You know who the diehards are too after a lot of years on here. I’m talking bout you Hotsauce. Game threads tell you whose actually watchin football not just rehashing something he/she read from an “expert.”

 

[pinkham13]

I'm not qualified to speak but I thought the Ebron situation on TNF was really interesting. I went through all these factors as I considered starting him vs other TEs. 1. Luck leaned on his TEs in college and pro, but that TE was inevitably Fleener, which is now gone. 2. Luck might still have a twingy shoulder and he's not throwing downfield like he used to, his ypa is down from what it used to be. 3. Luck's o-line often sucks so he has to get rid of the ball quickly. 4. Ebron is already on a low ypc rate vs TDs rate. He was living on low percentage scoring. 5. NE is good at home, they just destroyed Mia (again), appeared to be on a get better stretch, and BB always schemes out a team's best receiver. 6. Hilton was out. 7. More Colts linemen were out. This might mean a. Ebron blocks more or b. Luck will be looking for his big target to get the ball out more quickly. 8. Ebron was ranked decently for this game but not great, here and elsewhere, so maybe I could do better. 9. Ebron is not exactly a reliable pass receiver and historically he's inconsistent. 10. NE would likely go up and Indy would be looking to push the ball upfield via the pass all night. 11. NE was ranked no. 1 vs TEs in FFPA, otoh their opponents had included TE weak teams like Mia & Jax.

That's one lineup decision and those are all the steps I considered. Started him in one league, benched him in another.

I started him too! Hoping Jordy Nelson goes off today. He was criminally overlooked in my league in draft day.

 

[Dizzy]

Trim your bench before the season begins by trading away marginal players for future picks then go into the season hungry looking for players with upside with a shot to start.

This is it really IMO. Any knucklehead (or autodraft) will come out on equal ground through the first 5-6 rounds of the draft, but that second half of draft day combined with week-to-week team management is where the separation comes. Monitoring not only the free agent pool and potential opportunities on the horizon, but frustration levels among the other Owners and guys they're "waiting on" versus the need to cover injuries and bye weeks.

TRADES... I am by far the most active trader in our league... I make offers almost every week. Some balanced, some ridiculous just to feel a guy out. As a result, I receive a lot of trade offers because guys know that I will seriously consider any offer and often counter. It happens every year... guys get dropped and half the league goes, "Oh man, I would have traded for that guy!" You never truly know how another owner values a player on his roster unless you make the inquiries.

Be proactive. Nothing more fun to discuss at the post season "banquet" than the resulting impact of a trade.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Wow, what a fantastic thread -- thanks @rockaction for a solid idea to start meaningful dialogue and shepherding it along well in the thread. So many great posts I wish I could quote them all, but focusing on a few points others have made in this thread and (hopefully) add value/counterpoints.

I agree with @NYRAGE and others who said that watching/doing more can be key. In this day and age, there is so much info that it's very easy to get lost in the avalanche. You do need to do that early if only to focus on fewer analysts/talking heads/beat writers that you trust over time, and where their voices/takes "seem" right. A combo of quantifiable proof of their analysis as it bears out and that their take generally feels right to you. Guys who are able to break news early and are more right than wrong. A guy that may have a contrarian view that pops out to you, and as you monitor he is more wrong than right. This provides potentially an extra edge when everyone gets the info at generally the same time -- if you get a signal from a source you trust and can act, if only minutes before, that gives you an extra edge.

As others said, doing the work and looking through these sources is a good way to start, but this can take a while, though, and I (like others on the thread have voiced) have limited time to constantly surf tweets and other SM sources. So my approach was do some work early and try and quickly narrow that down so you don't overwhelm yourself, and always be open to moving on from an analyst if over time they are generally more wrong than right. 

I balance this by looking at Reddit for a "voice of the masses" look. Yes, that can generally aligns with or is heavily influenced by the general ESPN/Yahoo/etc. view, but on one hand it's great info to allow you to do two things: leverage the wisdom of the crowd, a phenomenon that James Surowiecki and many others have analyzed in terms of its benefits over single sources. A second benefit is, as I believe @EBF and others alluded to (love the "flawed but rigid" line @EBF had), as it allows you to zig where others zag. In this way you are creating your own arbitrage opportunities in those areas where the crowds just seem to have the wrong take. Finally, at least on Reddit, a lot of really interesting pure-data based predictions based on machine learning and more quant statistical analysis that I'd love to see more of here as well. That approach has it's holes as well, but again, it's an area I don't think a lot of people who rely on the same info we all see on SM/Yahoo/ESPN/etc. are looking at. It helps add and balance my views and could also inform and provide more arbitrage opportunities in terms of match up data, predictive analysis on situational things like weather, momentum, whatever.

This board has always been a great source of both -- and over time I've come to trust some of the voices here (and many in this very thread!) in the same way as my approach with analysts -- guys who are engaged, not just in season but offseason, guys who have well-thought out views informed by both gut and data across not just their favorite teams or players they own FF-wise, but across all of it.

I'll likely have more as I think about this more, but I always trend to long-winded posts, so will leave this for now with a few other specifics I've taken on recently to help me:

• Like others, I don't have time to invest the same focus in college, but I definitely have been paying attention to draft profiles and combines. They aren't perfect, and success in college doesn't translate with predictability to NFL, but some guys you can see how it does right away -- Ross and Fournette are good examples in terms of the speed/combine success. Barkley is another good example this year in terms of seeing his skills could translate at the next level. Freeman to me is another -- which specifically brings me to a second point.
  
• You need to watch and pay attention to preseason. Not just the games but camp reports. Freeman was touted as as high level rookie RB, and was looking great in preseason. May have gave guys edges in terms of buying low after a slow start. But paying attention to who was leaping out in preseason also made me pay attention to guys like Lindsay -- a guy most think might be too small to work, but who not only proved he could carry a load in college, but showed he could succeed as a pure RB in preseason, and the constant glowing reports coming from camp about him. When it was clear in the regular season that the team was going to use him in multiple situations aside from a gadget back, I leapt after his WK1 15 for 71 and 2 catches as it was absolute proof of concept of what I was seeing and hearing about in preseason. This got me a full head-start earlier everyone else, when his WK2 14/107 put him on everyone's radar, maybe for the first time, and he began to be called out as a waiver wire add by all the experts for Week 3. Coutee is another example of a guy you should and could have been aware of earlier by the same approach.
  
• Investing in NFL Game Day can be a big expense for many, but for me it's an investment that pays off as it allows me to re-watch games, study match ups, and review how game flow or game plan affects fantasy performance. An example: how corners are playing - not just if they are trending to being or maintaining shut-down status but how they might trend the other way; and also how they might approach coverage in the scheme -- do they move all around to follow the WR1, or do they cover the X-receiver position no matter who is in there. That helps inform match ups. Watching game film helps inform your decisions on how players can pass the "eye test" -- another reason why watching preseason games (and tempering views if someone looks fantastic, but against the 2s and 3s) helps,
  

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Just another common issue - streaming defenses. How do you handle a team which ordinarily does poorly but they’d be facing a seeet matchup at home? I usually avoid such temptations, I’d rather go with a talented defense which perhaps struggles but has had past success even if it’s facibg a potentially good offense. Teams like the Eagles & Texans come to mind on this front right now.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Just another common issue - streaming defenses. How do you handle a team which ordinarily does poorly but they’d be facing a seeet matchup at home? I usually avoid such temptations, I’d rather go with a talented defense which perhaps struggles but has had past success even if it’s facibg a potentially good offense. Teams like the Eagles & Texans come to mind on this front right now.

Great Q, I don't know a pure answer that I've come across.

One way I approach it is akin to what @sportsphysio said about keeping one spot on your roster as a flex spot that you are constantly churning and to his and others' points, constantly looking to upgrade.

Given that D is so variable, I think at times carrying two makes sense, and I'm using one spot on my roster to do that. Eagles D looked strong last year, had minimal turnover, I believe this year, and are struggling early but now with Wentz back may regain form. They (and others like JAX or MIN who are also struggling but are generally solid in terms of talent) are a team I'll look to hold, and stream when momentum is poor, looking to pick up one of those weekly sweet matchups where a D is at home, faces a team with downward momentum or simply matches up poorly. So this week, I picked up Cincy for this week in one league where I was holding the Eagles.

 

[KickinT]

Great Q, I don't know a pure answer that I've come across.

One way I approach it is akin to what @sportsphysio said about keeping one spot on your roster as a flex spot that you are constantly churning and to his and others' points, constantly looking to upgrade.

Given that D is so variable, I think at times carrying two makes sense, and I'm using one spot on my roster to do that. Eagles D looked strong last year, had minimal turnover, I believe this year, and are struggling early but now with Wentz back may regain form. They (and others like JAX or MIN who are also struggling but are generally solid in terms of talent) are a team I'll look to hold, and stream when momentum is poor, looking to pick up one of those weekly sweet matchups where a D is at home, faces a team with downward momentum or simply matches up poorly. So this week, I picked up Cincy for this week in one league where I was holding the Eagles.

Wow, what a fantastic thread -- thanks @rockaction for a solid idea to start meaningful dialogue and shepherding it along well in the thread. So many great posts I wish I could quote them all, but focusing on a few points others have made in this thread and (hopefully) add value/counterpoints.

I agree with @NYRAGE and others who said that watching/doing more can be key. In this day and age, there is so much info that it's very easy to get lost in the avalanche. You do need to do that early if only to focus on fewer analysts/talking heads/beat writers that you trust over time, and where their voices/takes "seem" right. A combo of quantifiable proof of their analysis as it bears out and that their take generally feels right to you. Guys who are able to break news early and are more right than wrong. A guy that may have a contrarian view that pops out to you, and as you monitor he is more wrong than right. This provides potentially an extra edge when everyone gets the info at generally the same time -- if you get a signal from a source you trust and can act, if only minutes before, that gives you an extra edge.

As others said, doing the work and looking through these sources is a good way to start, but this can take a while, though, and I (like others on the thread have voiced) have limited time to constantly surf tweets and other SM sources. So my approach was do some work early and try and quickly narrow that down so you don't overwhelm yourself, and always be open to moving on from an analyst if over time they are generally more wrong than right. 

I balance this by looking at Reddit for a "voice of the masses" look. Yes, that can generally aligns with or is heavily influenced by the general ESPN/Yahoo/etc. view, but on one hand it's great info to allow you to do two things: leverage the wisdom of the crowd, a phenomenon that James Surowiecki and many others have analyzed in terms of its benefits over single sources. A second benefit is, as I believe @EBF and others alluded to (love the "flawed but rigid" line @EBF had), as it allows you to zig where others zag. In this way you are creating your own arbitrage opportunities in those areas where the crowds just seem to have the wrong take. Finally, at least on Reddit, a lot of really interesting pure-data based predictions based on machine learning and more quant statistical analysis that I'd love to see more of here as well. That approach has it's holes as well, but again, it's an area I don't think a lot of people who rely on the same info we all see on SM/Yahoo/ESPN/etc. are looking at. It helps add and balance my views and could also inform and provide more arbitrage opportunities in terms of match up data, predictive analysis on situational things like weather, momentum, whatever.

This board has always been a great source of both -- and over time I've come to trust some of the voices here (and many in this very thread!) in the same way as my approach with analysts -- guys who are engaged, not just in season but offseason, guys who have well-thought out views informed by both gut and data across not just their favorite teams or players they own FF-wise, but across all of it.

I'll likely have more as I think about this more, but I always trend to long-winded posts, so will leave this for now with a few other specifics I've taken on recently to help me:

• Like others, I don't have time to invest the same focus in college, but I definitely have been paying attention to draft profiles and combines. They aren't perfect, and success in college doesn't translate with predictability to NFL, but some guys you can see how it does right away -- Ross and Fournette are good examples in terms of the speed/combine success. Barkley is another good example this year in terms of seeing his skills could translate at the next level. Freeman to me is another -- which specifically brings me to a second point.
  
• You need to watch and pay attention to preseason. Not just the games but camp reports. Freeman was touted as as high level rookie RB, and was looking great in preseason. May have gave guys edges in terms of buying low after a slow start. But paying attention to who was leaping out in preseason also made me pay attention to guys like Lindsay -- a guy most think might be too small to work, but who not only proved he could carry a load in college, but showed he could succeed as a pure RB in preseason, and the constant glowing reports coming from camp about him. When it was clear in the regular season that the team was going to use him in multiple situations aside from a gadget back, I leapt after his WK1 15 for 71 and 2 catches as it was absolute proof of concept of what I was seeing and hearing about in preseason. This got me a full head-start earlier everyone else, when his WK2 14/107 put him on everyone's radar, maybe for the first time, and he began to be called out as a waiver wire add by all the experts for Week 3. Coutee is another example of a guy you should and could have been aware of earlier by the same approach.
  
• Investing in NFL Game Day can be a big expense for many, but for me it's an investment that pays off as it allows me to re-watch games, study match ups, and review how game flow or game plan affects fantasy performance. An example: how corners are playing - not just if they are trending to being or maintaining shut-down status but how they might trend the other way; and also how they might approach coverage in the scheme -- do they move all around to follow the WR1, or do they cover the X-receiver position no matter who is in there. That helps inform match ups. Watching game film helps inform your decisions on how players can pass the "eye test" -- another reason why watching preseason games (and tempering views if someone looks fantastic, but against the 2s and 3s) helps,
  

  Love me some Stompin’ Tom. Long winded? I always love your two cents. May I have seconds please?

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

  Love me some Stompin’ Tom. Long winded? I always love your two cents. May I have seconds please?

Aw, shucks! Appreciate it, and right back atcha! A lot of my most respected FBGers are here and commenting in this thread.

 

[KickinT]

Yep,

Trim your bench before the season begins by trading away marginal players for future picks then go into the season hungry looking for players with upside with a shot to start.

Always be hungry instead of content starting the season.  Have plenty of bench room and get those players with a pulse earlier than the owners who are going off of last year's results.

Spot on.  I have drafted very deep teams in the past and been married to them for the beginning of the season. I missed out on eventually better players. Nowadays, I try to shoot the moon late draft for just that reason.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Fantastic thread. Thanks to @rockaction for kicking it off and for all of the wisdom shared so far.

I'll throw an aspect out there that draws yet another analogy to poker: game selection (or in the case of FF, league selection).

It is possible to be an exceptional poker player and still find yourself in a -EV game. One easy way to do this is poor table selection (cue the old saw about being the 10th-best player in the world sitting down at a table with the other 9). But, as @Hot Sauce Guy touched on, there are other ways. The type of amped-up, loose-aggressive strategy that's optimal for short-handed NL hold'em will get you killed at a $20/40 limit Omaha table, and vice versa. On the flip side, you could be only a fair Omaha/8 player, but if you could pick a table where everyone else had experience only in stud or HE, on average you'll make a mint.

At this point, the "standard" season-long formats don't offer any sort of informational advantage any more. They're like online mid-limits in 2011 or thereabouts - except that instead of there not being any fish, there's no one who has any excuse for being a fish. My solution has been to get out of several old, standard format, leagues in favor of leagues that are less cookie-cutter - where the vast majority of ESPN / CBS / Rotoworld etc. advice is less applicable at best, and completely wrong in many cases. Every league I'm playing in nowadays, including the one I run, has some combination of 2QB / superflex, deep lineups / benches, auction, multiple-copy, and/or keeper formats.

The greater the differences between your specific league format and the "typical" season-long league, the greater the opportunity to leverage other advantages to replace the information advantage that most of us used to pride ourselves on, and the more the skill vs. luck balance tilts in favor of the former.

 

[ZWK]

+1 to @Mr. Irrelevant. The main way I deal with the flood of information is by playing in leagues where that information is less relevant: dynasty leagues, best ball or draft-only leagues, leagues with unusual scoring or starting lineup requirements.

Things like weekly sit-start decisions aren't very interesting. It's easy to find pretty good weekly rankings. It's possible to get a slight edge by putting in work, or finding the best rankings or lineup dominator out there, to figure out the 1 or 2 most up-in-the-air spots in your lineup, but it's a small edge and not that exciting.

Unusual formats (superflex with weird QB scoring, points for return yards, points for first downs, lots of bonuses, extra flexes, ...) change things up and force me to do some thinkin' (and often some calculatin') to figure out how to build a good team in that format; I can't just check whatever rankings or use the standard heuristics. And everyone else in the league has to do their own thinkin', or give up an edge to whoever does think.

Draft-only leagues typically have a somewhat unusual format (Anarchy, FBG subscriber's contest, best ball) which makes things interesting, especially in the back half of the draft. And during the season I can just follow my team; I don't need to deal with the less interesting parts like weekly sit-start decisions. Many of the drafts happen well before the season starts, when views on the upcoming season are less crystallized and there is more thinking/research to be done. Best ball leagues which allow in-season waivers & trades add an unusual wrinkle to roster management; they actually make it more important than usual to play waivers (in order to try to pick up guys like Trent Taylor this week).

Dynasty leagues raise the most interesting player evaluation challenges. Trying to predict how good a player will be over his entire career is more difficult than making predictions for just this year, and the potential reward is much bigger. There are more options/challenges for roster construction, and the readily available advice & rankings are much worse than for redraft drafts or weekly rankings. And much of the activity happens in the offseason, with lots of trades and the rookie draft. In one of my leagues we draft before the NFL draft.

 

[rockaction]

Hey guys, thanks for all the shout-outs. The league makeup thing? I love the comments, actually. But that was taken into consideration when taking out the thread. I get that dynasty and keeper and developmental and league format were the main ways around this; hence my post about that. 

This was meant to be a redraft/keeper/dynasty-lite thread. That's why I specifically allowed and spoke for it upthread.

But I'm not above the love for dynasty and other formats and the love thenceforth, and love me some luff in general. 

Enjoy and make this what you will about information writ large.  I guess this can be the info thread.  

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

My approach at this point in my life:

- Do a TON of best ball drafts over the summer.  Start early and have a few going at a time (slow drafts).  I've come into the draft for my main season-long league much better prepared the past couple years since doing this.  It forces you to evaluate the whole player pool over the course of months, you get to know ADP like the back of your hand and you learn what works and what doesn't over and over.  I end up accumulating a lot more info and insight (and also profits!) like this.

- NFL Game Pass is invaluable to me.  I have a demanding job and a family, I can't sit on the couch and watch football all Sunday like I did 15 years ago.  I actually end up missing most of the action on Sundays because of work, soccer games, Cub Scouts, etc. - but I make up for it by watching the condensed replays after the fact.  Not for everyone I suppose but it works for me.  I can put the kids to bed and then watch 3-4 games in a row on Monday night (I don't have ESPN so I usually miss MNF anyway).  Can do the same Tuesday and/or Wednesday, so if I really want to I can watch just about every game, every week.  In reality I don't watch them all, but I do try to see a lot of them, especially where there are any interesting fantasy implications.  

- FBG subscription / reading the Shark Pool.  Are there better sites on the internet at this point?  Maybe, I don't know.  I've been a subscriber here for a long time and I still find it to be a great value.  Gives me access to all the info I need, in a format I'm familiar with.  And I lurk the Shark Pool for news, things I may have missed, opinions on players I may have overlooked, etc.  Otherwise that's all the info I get.  I don't do Twitter except in rare circumstances where I'm specifically checking for time-sensitive news.  I don't watch the shows on TV, I don't visit other sites for the most part except to occasionally get specific info that isn't here.  I avoid the problem of "too much information" by just avoiding all that information.  It's mostly noise anyway.  I trust FBG as my one source for "expert" info and otherwise just go with my gut.  It's worked out pretty well.