Wow, what a fantastic thread -- thanks
@rockaction for a solid idea to start meaningful dialogue and shepherding it along well in the thread. So many great posts I wish I could quote them all, but focusing on a few points others have made in this thread and (hopefully) add value/counterpoints.
I agree with
@NYRAGE and others who said that watching/doing more can be key. In this day and age, there is so much info that it's very easy to get lost in the avalanche. You do need to do that early if only to focus on fewer analysts/talking heads/beat writers that you trust over time, and where their voices/takes "seem" right. A combo of quantifiable proof of their analysis as it bears out and that their take generally feels right to you. Guys who are able to break news early and are more right than wrong. A guy that may have a contrarian view that pops out to you, and as you monitor he is more wrong than right. This provides potentially an extra edge when everyone gets the info at generally the same time -- if you get a signal from a source you trust and can act, if only minutes before, that gives you an extra edge.
As others said, doing the work and looking through these sources is a good way to start, but this can take a while, though, and I (like others on the thread have voiced) have limited time to constantly surf tweets and other SM sources. So my approach was do some work
early and try and
quickly narrow that down so you don't overwhelm yourself, and always be open to moving on from an analyst if over time they are generally more wrong than right.
I balance this by looking at Reddit for a "voice of the masses" look. Yes, that can generally aligns with or is heavily influenced by the general ESPN/Yahoo/etc. view, but on one hand it's great info to allow you to do two things: leverage the wisdom of the crowd, a phenomenon that James Surowiecki and many others have analyzed in terms of its benefits over single sources. A second benefit is, as I believe
@EBF and others alluded to (love the "flawed but rigid" line
@EBF had), as it allows you to zig where others zag. In this way you are creating your own arbitrage opportunities in those areas where the crowds just seem to have the wrong take. Finally, at least on Reddit, a lot of really interesting pure-data based predictions based on machine learning and more quant statistical analysis that I'd love to see more of here as well. That approach has it's holes as well, but again, it's an area I don't think a lot of people who rely on the same info we all see on SM/Yahoo/ESPN/etc. are looking at. It helps add and balance my views and could also inform and provide more arbitrage opportunities in terms of match up data, predictive analysis on situational things like weather, momentum, whatever.
This board has always been a great source of both -- and over time I've come to trust some of the voices here (and many in this very thread!) in the same way as my approach with analysts -- guys who are engaged, not just in season but offseason, guys who have well-thought out views informed by both gut and data across not just their favorite teams or players they own FF-wise, but across all of it.
I'll likely have more as I think about this more, but I always trend to long-winded posts, so will leave this for now with a few other specifics I've taken on recently to help me:
- Like others, I don't have time to invest the same focus in college, but I definitely have been paying attention to draft profiles and combines. They aren't perfect, and success in college doesn't translate with predictability to NFL, but some guys you can see how it does right away -- Ross and Fournette are good examples in terms of the speed/combine success. Barkley is another good example this year in terms of seeing his skills could translate at the next level. Freeman to me is another -- which specifically brings me to a second point.
- You need to watch and pay attention to preseason. Not just the games but camp reports. Freeman was touted as as high level rookie RB, and was looking great in preseason. May have gave guys edges in terms of buying low after a slow start. But paying attention to who was leaping out in preseason also made me pay attention to guys like Lindsay -- a guy most think might be too small to work, but who not only proved he could carry a load in college, but showed he could succeed as a pure RB in preseason, and the constant glowing reports coming from camp about him. When it was clear in the regular season that the team was going to use him in multiple situations aside from a gadget back, I leapt after his WK1 15 for 71 and 2 catches as it was absolute proof of concept of what I was seeing and hearing about in preseason. This got me a full head-start earlier everyone else, when his WK2 14/107 put him on everyone's radar, maybe for the first time, and he began to be called out as a waiver wire add by all the experts for Week 3. Coutee is another example of a guy you should and could have been aware of earlier by the same approach.
- Investing in NFL Game Day can be a big expense for many, but for me it's an investment that pays off as it allows me to re-watch games, study match ups, and review how game flow or game plan affects fantasy performance. An example: how corners are playing - not just if they are trending to being or maintaining shut-down status but how they might trend the other way; and also how they might approach coverage in the scheme -- do they move all around to follow the WR1, or do they cover the X-receiver position no matter who is in there. That helps inform match ups. Watching game film helps inform your decisions on how players can pass the "eye test" -- another reason why watching preseason games (and tempering views if someone looks fantastic, but against the 2s and 3s) helps,