Out Of Touch With Reality (1 Viewer)

[DropKick]

What I've seen of Michael is yes, I think he's every bit as talented as AD. There I said it. Go ahead and block me or throw some smiley emoticons at me.

I wouldn't laugh too hard. Michael has the size and athleticism to be very productive in the NFL. Personally, I think Michael was a first round talent that slipped due to character concerns. If that's behind him, he could really pay off. Here's a couple blurbs from Rotoworld. Take it at face value, but Michael doesn't have to be Peterson to be a valuable FF asset.

Texas A&M's strength coach, who has trained both Christine Michael and Adrian Peterson, said Michael's athletic explosiveness is on par with Peterson's.

The "hype" around Michael is not some fabrication. His tape is drool-worthy, and Seahawks coaches themselves are talking up getting the second-year back chances at the expense of Marshawn Lynch. Former NFL personnel man Louis Riddick tweeted Monday that when Michael "gets his chance regular season '14, provided he's healthy, he'll show he's the most gifted RB drafted in past 5 yrs."

 

[Bojang0301]

What I've seen of Michael is yes, I think he's every bit as talented as AD. There I said it. Go ahead and block me or throw some smiley emoticons at me.

I wouldn't laugh too hard. Michael has the size and athleticism to be very productive in the NFL. Personally, I think Michael was a first round talent that slipped due to character concerns. If that's behind him, he could really pay off. Here's a couple blurbs from Rotoworld. Take it at face value, but Michael doesn't have to be Peterson to be a valuable FF asset.

Texas A&M's strength coach, who has trained both Christine Michael and Adrian Peterson, said Michael's athletic explosiveness is on par with Peterson's.

The "hype" around Michael is not some fabrication. His tape is drool-worthy, and Seahawks coaches themselves are talking up getting the second-year back chances at the expense of Marshawn Lynch. Former NFL personnel man Louis Riddick tweeted Monday that when Michael "gets his chance regular season '14, provided he's healthy, he'll show he's the most gifted RB drafted in past 5 yrs."

No kidding. People just need to stop comparing him to AD and LT. It's ridiculous. I would be more accepting of Marshawn Lynch, Shaun Alexander or Travis Henry comparisons. That says to me hey this guy could be a top tier guy in the right situation, instead what I read is HEY I THINK THIS GUY IS A HOFer!!!!!!!!

 

[Sabertooth]

Not even that, they are comparing him to perhaps the 2 best running backs ever to player the game. Why not throw in a Jim Brown and Barry Sanders comparison just to be safe?

 

[ghostguy123]

Not even that, they are comparing him to perhaps the 2 best running backs ever to player the game. Why not throw in a Jim Brown and Barry Sanders comparison just to be safe?

Ha, in 10 years you will be comparing Jim Brown and Barry Sanders to HIM!!!!!

 

[Stealthycat]

yet as stupid as they are - both will be starting RB's come week 1 - and both will have good seasons, Lynch top 5-7 and Moreno top 15 IMO

 

[az_prof]

The fact that a 28 year old's career is almost over tells you this isn't the same reality as ours. If Lynch feels he's in a position of leverage to get one final bump in his contract then why not take a crack at it? He's weighing the chances they cut him for an unproven back in the middle of their Super Bowl window. It's a solid gamble on his part.

They don't have to cut him. They can simply let him sit out and not pay him. That's what I would do and we have seen this happen before. He isn't that special. Sorry. He isn't. He never has been.

 

[cstu]

The fact that a 28 year old's career is almost over tells you this isn't the same reality as ours. If Lynch feels he's in a position of leverage to get one final bump in his contract then why not take a crack at it? He's weighing the chances they cut him for an unproven back in the middle of their Super Bowl window. It's a solid gamble on his part.

They don't have to cut him. They can simply let him sit out and not pay him. That's what I would do and we have seen this happen before. He isn't that special. Sorry. He isn't. He never has been.

No, he's not that special but he has one of the most important things for a RB - trust.

Trust that he can carry the ball 300 times without getting injured, trust that he won't fumble (much) and trust that he can pass protect.

Could they get by without him? Probably, but it's unlikely they want to take that chance.

Edit: He doesn't need to hold out into the season to be headache - he could show up week 1 to get paid and then tear a hamstring from not being in camp.

 

[cstu]

If I'm the Seahawks I convert some of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus. The Seahawks have the cap room this year and it probably makes Lynch happy since he's unlikely to be cut next year.

Win-win for everyone...except Michael owners that is.

 

[PatsWillWin]

OK I'm delusional. And we'll bump this thread in a year.

I'm delusional as well. Honestly, while I think C. Michael is a guy that isn't an exact clone of Lynch, I think he's maybe better.

lol

 

[tdmills]

The fact that a 28 year old's career is almost over tells you this isn't the same reality as ours. If Lynch feels he's in a position of leverage to get one final bump in his contract then why not take a crack at it? He's weighing the chances they cut him for an unproven back in the middle of their Super Bowl window. It's a solid gamble on his part.

They don't have to cut him. They can simply let him sit out and not pay him. That's what I would do and we have seen this happen before. He isn't that special. Sorry. He isn't. He never has been.

Only rb in the NFL to have 1200 rushing yards or more the last 3 seasons...

 

[Holy Schneikes]

If I'm the Seahawks I convert some of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus. The Seahawks have the cap room this year and it probably makes Lynch happy since he's unlikely to be cut next year.

Win-win for everyone...except Michael owners that is.

How does that help Seattle? Aside from "keeping the peace", it doesn't seem to do anything for them since that would just be more money out of their pocket assuming Lynch is gone in 2015. Maybe I am missing something?

 

[Sabertooth]

The fact that a 28 year old's career is almost over tells you this isn't the same reality as ours. If Lynch feels he's in a position of leverage to get one final bump in his contract then why not take a crack at it? He's weighing the chances they cut him for an unproven back in the middle of their Super Bowl window. It's a solid gamble on his part.

They don't have to cut him. They can simply let him sit out and not pay him. That's what I would do and we have seen this happen before. He isn't that special. Sorry. He isn't. He never has been.

Only rb in the NFL to have 1200 rushing yards or more the last 3 seasons...

But his short shuttle isn't very good compared to Michael. It's all short shuttle these days.

 

[humpback]

What I've seen of Michael is yes, I think he's every bit as talented as AD. There I said it. Go ahead and block me or throw some smiley emoticons at me.

I wouldn't laugh too hard. Michael has the size and athleticism to be very productive in the NFL. Personally, I think Michael was a first round talent that slipped due to character concerns. If that's behind him, he could really pay off. Here's a couple blurbs from Rotoworld. Take it at face value, but Michael doesn't have to be Peterson to be a valuable FF asset.

Texas A&M's strength coach, who has trained both Christine Michael and Adrian Peterson, said Michael's athletic explosiveness is on par with Peterson's.

The "hype" around Michael is not some fabrication. His tape is drool-worthy, and Seahawks coaches themselves are talking up getting the second-year back chances at the expense of Marshawn Lynch. Former NFL personnel man Louis Riddick tweeted Monday that when Michael "gets his chance regular season '14, provided he's healthy, he'll show he's the most gifted RB drafted in past 5 yrs."

Did you read the posts before responding? They weren't about whether he has the size and athleticism to be very productive in the NFL, whether he could really pay off, or most of the other stuff you wrote. He said that from what he has seen (which is laughable in it's own right), Michael is every bit as talented as AD. That's ridiculous.

 

[massraider]

If I'm the Seahawks I convert some of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus. The Seahawks have the cap room this year and it probably makes Lynch happy since he's unlikely to be cut next year.

Win-win for everyone...except Michael owners that is.

How does that help Seattle? Aside from "keeping the peace", it doesn't seem to do anything for them since that would just be more money out of their pocket assuming Lynch is gone in 2015. Maybe I am missing something?

In a vacuum, as a one-time thing, it'd be great. They have cap room, he's been a warrior for them, etc.

But in reality, it sets a precedent that the agents for every other Seahawk would love. Make a little noise in June, and get paid. Pretty dumb thing for Seattle to do. They have all the leverage. He's under contract for two years, and they apparently have a future lock Hall of Famer waiting in the wings.

Marshawn isn't even underpaid. He won't get the last year of his deal? He knew that years ago. He creates a little stink, and shows up at training camp. No big deal.

 

[cstu]

If I'm the Seahawks I convert some of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus. The Seahawks have the cap room this year and it probably makes Lynch happy since he's unlikely to be cut next year.

Win-win for everyone...except Michael owners that is.

How does that help Seattle? Aside from "keeping the peace", it doesn't seem to do anything for them since that would just be more money out of their pocket assuming Lynch is gone in 2015. Maybe I am missing something?

Keeping the peace is a big deal if they want to win another title. The idea would be to make it difficult for them to cut him - if the cap savings next year are only $1-2M then they would probably keep him if he's playing well.

 

[Sabertooth]

Yep. They are in the window obviously. Why would they want to cut him? He just helped carry this team to a Lombardi Trophy

 

[cstu]

In a vacuum, as a one-time thing, it'd be great. They have cap room, he's been a warrior for them, etc.

But in reality, it sets a precedent that the agents for every other Seahawk would love. Make a little noise in June, and get paid. Pretty dumb thing for Seattle to do. They have all the leverage. He's under contract for two years, and they apparently have a future lock Hall of Famer waiting in the wings.

Marshawn isn't even underpaid. He won't get the last year of his deal? He knew that years ago. He creates a little stink, and shows up at training camp. No big deal.

I disagree with the bold. He never thought when he signed his deal that the RB market would drop so dramatically.

I don't blame him a bit for trying to collect on his 2015 salary. Right now the Seahawks don't hold all the cards because they want him in camp practicing with the team and staying in shape. Unless they are willing to cut him or have him show up week 1 then they should redo the deal so he stays on the team next year.

 

[massraider]

In a vacuum, as a one-time thing, it'd be great. They have cap room, he's been a warrior for them, etc.

But in reality, it sets a precedent that the agents for every other Seahawk would love. Make a little noise in June, and get paid. Pretty dumb thing for Seattle to do. They have all the leverage. He's under contract for two years, and they apparently have a future lock Hall of Famer waiting in the wings.

Marshawn isn't even underpaid. He won't get the last year of his deal? He knew that years ago. He creates a little stink, and shows up at training camp. No big deal.

I disagree with the bold. He never thought when he signed his deal that the RB market would drop so dramatically.

I don't blame him a bit for trying to collect on his 2015 salary. Right now the Seahawks don't hold all the cards because they want him in camp practicing with the team and staying in shape. Unless they are willing to cut him or have him show up week 1 then they should redo the deal so he stays on the team next year.

http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Marshawn%20Lynch&Position=RB&Team=Seahawks

Link to Marshawn's deal. It's not backloaded badly at all, really. The only thing that stands out is the $2 mill roster bonus.

Even if they were to give him $2 mill of next year's salary this year, setting a horrible precedent, his number would still be 5.5 mill. After another year of wear and tear, and the young guys the Hawks have to pay, smart money would say he's not collecting that money.

It would be paying him for past services. And by the way, the Hawks at the end of this season will have paid him $22 mill in 3 years. he already got his signing bonus, this was his 2nd contract.

I have no problem with Marshawn TRYING to recoup some of that money before he is cut next spring at an advance age for RBs, but that doesn't mean Seattle should cave in. They have other fish to fry. Fish that play more important positions.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

If I'm the Seahawks I convert some of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus. The Seahawks have the cap room this year and it probably makes Lynch happy since he's unlikely to be cut next year.

Win-win for everyone...except Michael owners that is.

How does that help Seattle? Aside from "keeping the peace", it doesn't seem to do anything for them since that would just be more money out of their pocket assuming Lynch is gone in 2015. Maybe I am missing something?

Keeping the peace is a big deal if they want to win another title. The idea would be to make it difficult for them to cut him - if the cap savings next year are only $1-2M then they would probably keep him if he's playing well.

He's not going to sit out this year, and it doesn't matter whether he plays in pre-season or not. It may be better if he doesn't. And they will either rework his deal before next year or move on regardless of what happens in 2014. "Making it difficult to cut him" is a benefit to Lynch, not the Seahawks. I asked what was in it for the Seahawks.

They are paying him 7M this year, right up there with the league leaders. Is he going to sit out make 0 dollars this year and then try again at age 29 while still owing the Seahawks two years? I doubt his management would let that happen.

So you suggest they give him what, 2 or 3 more million this year, for a total of 9/10M and take it off of 2015 right? Then what? He's still at 6/7M next year and there is still a decision to be made. Would the Seahawks rather have him at 1 year for 7M or 2 years at 16M? Well, if they want him at 16M, they can HAVE him at 16M without doing anything to his contract. Or, they could pay him his 7M this year and then lower his salary next year if he wants to stay. If they offer him 5/6M next year on a one or two year deal, it will still likely be his best offer (maybe by far).

I've said before that he has SOME leverage. It's always better not to rock the boat if it's an easy thing to accomplish. But it's not a LOT of leverage, because the team is already paying him handsomely in today's market, have two years on his deal, and in theory have competent replacements for him already on the team.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

If I'm the Seahawks I convert some of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus. The Seahawks have the cap room this year and it probably makes Lynch happy since he's unlikely to be cut next year.

Win-win for everyone...except Michael owners that is.

How does that help Seattle? Aside from "keeping the peace", it doesn't seem to do anything for them since that would just be more money out of their pocket assuming Lynch is gone in 2015. Maybe I am missing something?

Keep a pro bowl RB while not breaking the bank?

 

[massraider]

If I'm the Seahawks I convert some of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus. The Seahawks have the cap room this year and it probably makes Lynch happy since he's unlikely to be cut next year.

Win-win for everyone...except Michael owners that is.

How does that help Seattle? Aside from "keeping the peace", it doesn't seem to do anything for them since that would just be more money out of their pocket assuming Lynch is gone in 2015. Maybe I am missing something?

Keep a pro bowl RB while not breaking the bank?

They can already keep him without breaking the bank, this year.

And they can probably offer him less money next year, and he would take it, knowing he wouldn't get the same on the open market.

 

[GregR]

The fact that there are athletes who are out of touch with reality when it comes to their value or job security is nothing new, but a couple of Roto news blurbs popped up back-to-back this morning that made me think of it again and just shake my head.

The first is Marshawn Lynch planning to hold out of mandatory OTAs because he wants more money. Reality check, Marshawn, you're 28 not 24, there's a young stud right behind you in C Michael, and you make plenty of money given today's RB market. I guess he needs to feed his family -- as well as a few African countries.

The second is Knowshon Moreno, basically a bust his whole career since being drafted in the first round. Until last season of course, thanks to defenses having to try to somehow slow down Peyton Manning, giving Moreno lots of opportunity to post volume stats. His 13 total TDs were easily a career high, matching the three previous seasons combined, and his 60 receptions topped his previous high by 24. Denver knows he's not special and let him walk, and he lands in Miami OUT OF SHAPE!

First, how does a freaking running back -- whose job it is to run -- even manage to get out of shape in four months anyway? Wasn't he playing in a Super Bowl in February? Second, doesn't he realize he has to compete for a job in Miami? Wasn't Denver letting him walk a little hint he's not going to be handed anything?

...

To be fair, from what I saw I'm not sure there were any Denver players who actually played in that Super Bowl last February...

 

[cstu]

If I'm the Seahawks I convert some of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus. The Seahawks have the cap room this year and it probably makes Lynch happy since he's unlikely to be cut next year.

Win-win for everyone...except Michael owners that is.

How does that help Seattle? Aside from "keeping the peace", it doesn't seem to do anything for them since that would just be more money out of their pocket assuming Lynch is gone in 2015. Maybe I am missing something?

Keeping the peace is a big deal if they want to win another title. The idea would be to make it difficult for them to cut him - if the cap savings next year are only $1-2M then they would probably keep him if he's playing well.

He's not going to sit out this year, and it doesn't matter whether he plays in pre-season or not. It may be better if he doesn't. And they will either rework his deal before next year or move on regardless of what happens in 2014. "Making it difficult to cut him" is a benefit to Lynch, not the Seahawks. I asked what was in it for the Seahawks.

They are paying him 7M this year, right up there with the league leaders. Is he going to sit out make 0 dollars this year and then try again at age 29 while still owing the Seahawks two years? I doubt his management would let that happen.

So you suggest they give him what, 2 or 3 more million this year, for a total of 9/10M and take it off of 2015 right? Then what? He's still at 6/7M next year and there is still a decision to be made. Would the Seahawks rather have him at 1 year for 7M or 2 years at 16M? Well, if they want him at 16M, they can HAVE him at 16M without doing anything to his contract. Or, they could pay him his 7M this year and then lower his salary next year if he wants to stay. If they offer him 5/6M next year on a one or two year deal, it will still likely be his best offer (maybe by far).

I've said before that he has SOME leverage. It's always better not to rock the boat if it's an easy thing to accomplish. But it's not a LOT of leverage, because the team is already paying him handsomely in today's market, have two years on his deal, and in theory have competent replacements for him already on the team.

You seem to only be pointing out things that are good for the Seahawks, not Lynch, so here you go:

The season opener is Sept. 4 against the Packers and Lynch could show up that day with no practice whatsoever in over 7 months.

The way I see it is that if the Seahawks have a right to cut him next year despite the contract they signed then Lynch has a right not to show up until right before the Packers game starts.

If they don't think he's worth the money to keep next year and don't care if he misses the entire preseason that's their prerogative but they better make sure they are comfortable leaning on Michael and Turbin to get them to another Super Bowl.

 

[cstu]

They can already keep him without breaking the bank, this year.

And they can probably offer him less money next year, and he would take it, knowing he wouldn't get the same on the open market.

There's better odds of him signing with the 49ers for a vet minimum then him crawling back after getting cut.

 

[cstu]

So you suggest they give him what, 2 or 3 more million this year, for a total of 9/10M and take it off of 2015 right? Then what? He's still at 6/7M next year and there is still a decision to be made. Would the Seahawks rather have him at 1 year for 7M or 2 years at 16M? Well, if they want him at 16M, they can HAVE him at 16M without doing anything to his contract. Or, they could pay him his 7M this year and then lower his salary next year if he wants to stay. If they offer him 5/6M next year on a one or two year deal, it will still likely be his best offer (maybe by far).

Here's what I'm suggesting...he's owed $7.5M in salary/roster bonus next year, with dead money of $1.5. If they convert $3M of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus spread over two years then in 2015 his dead money becomes $3M with a salary/roster bonus of $5.5M.

They'd save $1.5M that way if they cut him but it makes it a much more difficult cut than one that would save them $6M.

And if he gets cut he can sign somewhere else for at least the $3.5M/year that other RB's getting.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

Lynch career YPC = 4.2

Lynch YPC, Seattle career only = 4.3

Lynch 2013 YPC = 4.2

League avg 2013 YPC = 4.2

No. of seasons Lynch has exceeded 4.2 YPC in 7 year career = 1

(in 2012 he was 5.0, which seems to be the outlier here, as he was 4.2 in both 2011 and 2013 with SEA, and 3.5 in his 165 carries with SEA after in-season trade with BUF in 2010)

No. of career carries = 1,753 (250/yr avg over 7 seasons)

No. of carries last 3 seasons = 901 (300/yr avg)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00.htm

After 2013 (his age 28 season) he will have accumulated about 2,000 carries.

The image we all have in our minds is of Beast Mode running over Saints players during one particular run in that playoff game, but the truth is overall Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly average, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been significantly injured.

Fantasy players view Lynch as a special fantasy asset, understandably, because of great volume totals for yards and TDs. Those in this thread who suggest he is a special runner though, other than being special in the sense that he has not missed time due to injury, are mistaken. Now he's near the end, close to used up. RBs don't decline gently, they fall off the cliff. Seattle knows this, the NFL knows this.

To say that C Michael cannot be a BETTER runner at 23 than Lynch at 28 with his league average 4.2 YPC is wrong IMO. The thing setting Lynch apart has been health, and honestly every player is just one play away from injury no matter who they are.

 

[massraider]

They can already keep him without breaking the bank, this year.

And they can probably offer him less money next year, and he would take it, knowing he wouldn't get the same on the open market.

There's better odds of him signing with the 49ers for a vet minimum then him crawling back after getting cut.

Yeah, no.

 

[Neofight]

Lynch career YPC = 4.2

Lynch YPC, Seattle carries only = 4.3

Lynch 2013 YPC = 4.2

League avg 2013 YPC = 4.2

No. of seasons Lynch has exceeded 4.2 YPC in 7 year career = 1

(in 2012 he was 5.0, which seems to be the outlier here, as he was 4.2 in both 2011 and 2013 with SEA, and 3.5 in his 165 carries with SEA after in-season trade with BUF in 2010)

No. of career carries = 1,753 (250/yr avg over 7 seasons)

No. of carries last 3 seasons = 901 (300/yr avg)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00.htm

Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly aveage, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been injured. After 2013 (his age 28 season) he will have accumulated about 2,000 carries.

Fantasy players view Lynch as special, understandably, because of great volume totals for yards and TDs. Those in this thread who suggest he is a special talent, other than being special in the sense that he has not missed time due to injury, are mistaken. Now he's near the end, close to used up. RBs don't decline gently, they fall off the cliff. Seattle knows this, the NFL knows this.

To say that C Michael cannot be a BETTER runner at 23 than Lynch at 28 with his league average 4.2 YPC is wrong IMO. The only thing setting Lynch apart is injury, and honestly every player is just one play away from injury no matter who they are.

Yards per carry is a little simplistic a take, no? This guy breaks tackles, a lot of tackles, and makes people miss at a rate higher than anyone in the league currently:

The PFF grading system has proved to be pretty robust over the years. Marshawn Lynch broke it the night that Beastmode was born. With that run in the playoffs we had to concede that a +2 grade simply wasn’t enough of a positive grade to award for the play and had to manually alter his positive in the database.

That’s the kind of runner we’re dealing with when it comes to Lynch – a guy who can break not only a defense, but also the very grading system we’re using to evaluate him.

Lynch has always been an immensely talented runner, and I suspect had he come into the league in any other season – away from the looming shadow of Adrian Peterson – it would have taken far less time for him to get the recognition he now enjoys (or shies away from). Even back in his relatively disappointing Buffalo days he was running hard against an insurmountable scarcity of blocking.

In Seattle, though, his game has gone to another level, and he has become the workhorse that can carry that offense even with average blocking at times. That run against the Saints showed the kind of thing he is capable of, but his ability to force missed tackles is peerless in the league – even when compared to Peterson.

This season he forced 75 missed tackles as a runner in the regular season, 11 more as a receiver and the postseason added another 22 across three games. That is a ridiculous rate and by far the most PFF has ever recorded for one runner over a single season. Beastmode may have been born in one paradigm shifting run against the Saints, but he remains alive and well to this day.

Plus, contrary to popular belief, Seattle's O-line was below average to poor last season. He carried them on his back many games.

 

[cstu]

Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly aveage, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been injured.

It's not that difficult to average 4.2 YPC over one season but doing it year in and year out with 300 carries is.

Lynch is ranked #24 all-time in career YPC among RB's with 1750+ carries - ahead of guys like Emmitt, Steven Jackson, Edge, Curtis Martin and Thurman Thomas.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly aveage, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been injured.

It's not that difficult to average 4.2 YPC over one season but doing it year in and year out with 300 carries is.

Lynch is ranked #24 all-time in career YPC among RB's with 1750+ carries - ahead of guys like Emmitt, Steven Jackson, Edge, Curtis Martin and Thurman Thomas.

But he has not yet had his decline phase end-of-the-line 3.6 fall apart season(s) yet that will surely come soon. Apples (through age 27 season) and oranges (full career).

 

[Bruce Hammond]

Lynch career YPC = 4.2

Lynch YPC, Seattle carries only = 4.3

Lynch 2013 YPC = 4.2

League avg 2013 YPC = 4.2

No. of seasons Lynch has exceeded 4.2 YPC in 7 year career = 1

(in 2012 he was 5.0, which seems to be the outlier here, as he was 4.2 in both 2011 and 2013 with SEA, and 3.5 in his 165 carries with SEA after in-season trade with BUF in 2010)

No. of career carries = 1,753 (250/yr avg over 7 seasons)

No. of carries last 3 seasons = 901 (300/yr avg)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00.htm

Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly aveage, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been injured. After 2013 (his age 28 season) he will have accumulated about 2,000 carries.

Fantasy players view Lynch as special, understandably, because of great volume totals for yards and TDs. Those in this thread who suggest he is a special talent, other than being special in the sense that he has not missed time due to injury, are mistaken. Now he's near the end, close to used up. RBs don't decline gently, they fall off the cliff. Seattle knows this, the NFL knows this.

To say that C Michael cannot be a BETTER runner at 23 than Lynch at 28 with his league average 4.2 YPC is wrong IMO. The only thing setting Lynch apart is injury, and honestly every player is just one play away from injury no matter who they are.

Yards per carry is a little simplistic a take, no? This guy breaks tackles, a lot of tackles, and makes people miss at a rate higher than anyone in the league currently:

The PFF grading system has proved to be pretty robust over the years. Marshawn Lynch broke it the night that Beastmode was born. With that run in the playoffs we had to concede that a +2 grade simply wasn’t enough of a positive grade to award for the play and had to manually alter his positive in the database.

That’s the kind of runner we’re dealing with when it comes to Lynch – a guy who can break not only a defense, but also the very grading system we’re using to evaluate him.

Lynch has always been an immensely talented runner, and I suspect had he come into the league in any other season – away from the looming shadow of Adrian Peterson – it would have taken far less time for him to get the recognition he now enjoys (or shies away from). Even back in his relatively disappointing Buffalo days he was running hard against an insurmountable scarcity of blocking.

In Seattle, though, his game has gone to another level, and he has become the workhorse that can carry that offense even with average blocking at times. That run against the Saints showed the kind of thing he is capable of, but his ability to force missed tackles is peerless in the league – even when compared to Peterson.

This season he forced 75 missed tackles as a runner in the regular season, 11 more as a receiver and the postseason added another 22 across three games. That is a ridiculous rate and by far the most PFF has ever recorded for one runner over a single season. Beastmode may have been born in one paradigm shifting run against the Saints, but he remains alive and well to this day.

Plus, contrary to popular belief, Seattle's O-line was below average to poor last season. He carried them on his back many games.

Lynch was 4.2, Michael 4.4, behind the same O-Line, and when Michael was in everyone knew it was to run the ball. That flowery article drips of fanboyism with the way it reads. Talk about being all over someone's jock. Lynch has a YPC of 4.2, behind all lines over 7 years, those are the facts. Maybe he's having to break so many tackles because he's not getting through the line or finding the right holes as fast as he should.

 

[msommer]

Knowshon got a one year 'show me' deal. And he shows up out of shape.

Not smart. He'd better get in fantastic shape for the regular season and be beastly or he will be lucky to get a backup contract next year

 

[Bruce Hammond]

Knowshon got a one year 'show me' deal. And he shows up out of shape.

Not smart. He'd better get in fantastic shape for the regular season and be beastly or he will be lucky to get a backup contract next year

Yep. Mediocre guy all his career (esp. for a guy taken 12th overall in his draft year). Peyton comes along and is mostly responsible for putting the guy back on the map again, and instead of taking full advantage and being ready for his next gig he shows up in MIA like a turd. Good job Knowshon.

 

[ffgiant]

Knowshon got a one year 'show me' deal. And he shows up out of shape.

Not smart. He'd better get in fantastic shape for the regular season and be beastly or he will be lucky to get a backup contract next year

Yep. Mediocre guy all his career (esp. for a guy taken 12th overall in his draft year). Peyton comes along and is mostly responsible for putting the guy back on the map again, and instead of taking full advantage and being ready for his next gig he shows up in MIA like a turd. Good job Knowshon.

When he was out of Denver, you know he would be fantasy irrelevant very soon.

 

[bostonfred]

All I need to know about Lynch is that Carroll, after winning a Superbowl, said that the team went out of its way to get Lynch because they needed some toughness and aggressiveness on offense, and he helped change the team mentality into what it is today. Carroll's a rah rah guy and you never trust a head coach when he's blowing smoke up people's butts, but when a coach talks after a Superbowl win, their mindset is on saving their thoughts for posterity, not hiding what they really think. It's one of the few times you can really trust what they say, and it's the main reasons I believe in Lynch and am less optimistic about Michael.

I don't think this gambit will work for Lynch, but he's hardly dead at 28, despite what dynasty owners would have you believe. He's one of those team leaders who leads by example, even though they're total Skittle eating weirdos with a busted up grill made of gold. Seattle wants him, and he wants to play there. He's getting paid as much as he could hope for on the open market, and while Seattle has a couple talented backups, they are in no hurry to lose the focal point of their offense. I don't see him getting a new contract, but maybe they work something out where they convert some money and give him a little more guaranteed, or add a year at lower money and add some incentives to 2014 or something.

I don't have much of a dog in this fight - I own Lynch in one league and Michael in none, and I'm not really rooting for or against the Seahawks. I think the Michael hype is justified, but still too high for a guy who might not get starting carries until 2015 or 2016. I think Lynch is the center piece of that offense, but with Harvin and Michael on the team, they're hardly crippled without him. Mostly I just think Lynch comes back and plays well again this year, and Michael might get more carries, a la Montee Ball, but that's about all I expect this year.

 

[Sabertooth]

Lynch career YPC = 4.2

Lynch YPC, Seattle carries only = 4.3

Lynch 2013 YPC = 4.2

League avg 2013 YPC = 4.2

No. of seasons Lynch has exceeded 4.2 YPC in 7 year career = 1

(in 2012 he was 5.0, which seems to be the outlier here, as he was 4.2 in both 2011 and 2013 with SEA, and 3.5 in his 165 carries with SEA after in-season trade with BUF in 2010)

No. of career carries = 1,753 (250/yr avg over 7 seasons)

No. of carries last 3 seasons = 901 (300/yr avg)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00.htm

Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly aveage, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been injured. After 2013 (his age 28 season) he will have accumulated about 2,000 carries.

Fantasy players view Lynch as special, understandably, because of great volume totals for yards and TDs. Those in this thread who suggest he is a special talent, other than being special in the sense that he has not missed time due to injury, are mistaken. Now he's near the end, close to used up. RBs don't decline gently, they fall off the cliff. Seattle knows this, the NFL knows this.

To say that C Michael cannot be a BETTER runner at 23 than Lynch at 28 with his league average 4.2 YPC is wrong IMO. The only thing setting Lynch apart is injury, and honestly every player is just one play away from injury no matter who they are.

Yards per carry is a little simplistic a take, no? This guy breaks tackles, a lot of tackles, and makes people miss at a rate higher than anyone in the league currently:

The PFF grading system has proved to be pretty robust over the years. Marshawn Lynch broke it the night that Beastmode was born. With that run in the playoffs we had to concede that a +2 grade simply wasn’t enough of a positive grade to award for the play and had to manually alter his positive in the database.

That’s the kind of runner we’re dealing with when it comes to Lynch – a guy who can break not only a defense, but also the very grading system we’re using to evaluate him.

Lynch has always been an immensely talented runner, and I suspect had he come into the league in any other season – away from the looming shadow of Adrian Peterson – it would have taken far less time for him to get the recognition he now enjoys (or shies away from). Even back in his relatively disappointing Buffalo days he was running hard against an insurmountable scarcity of blocking.

In Seattle, though, his game has gone to another level, and he has become the workhorse that can carry that offense even with average blocking at times. That run against the Saints showed the kind of thing he is capable of, but his ability to force missed tackles is peerless in the league – even when compared to Peterson.

This season he forced 75 missed tackles as a runner in the regular season, 11 more as a receiver and the postseason added another 22 across three games. That is a ridiculous rate and by far the most PFF has ever recorded for one runner over a single season. Beastmode may have been born in one paradigm shifting run against the Saints, but he remains alive and well to this day.

Plus, contrary to popular belief, Seattle's O-line was below average to poor last season. He carried them on his back many games.

Lynch was 4.2, Michael 4.4, behind the same O-Line, and when Michael was in everyone knew it was to run the ball. That flowery article drips of fanboyism with the way it reads. Talk about being all over someone's jock. Lynch has a YPC of 4.2, behind all lines over 7 years, those are the facts. Maybe he's having to break so many tackles because he's not getting through the line or finding the right holes as fast as he should.

Are you saying that because Michael averaged 7 inches more per carry in mop up duty over a very small sample size he's better than Lynch. Because it sounds like that's what you are saying and I just want to be clear. I realize now that you are trolling but I just went and checked how Lynch did behind the same line against the same teams in the same games that Michael got carries in.

Lynch 4.62 YPC

Michael 4.41 YPC

And Michael's carries came exclusively on mop up duty after Lynch posted better stats and wore defenses out for him. Michael only got two carries in the 3rd quarter and the rest of his carries came in the fourth, where his performance was inferior to Lynch's.

 

[Heatman]

Lynch career YPC = 4.2

Lynch YPC, Seattle carries only = 4.3

Lynch 2013 YPC = 4.2

League avg 2013 YPC = 4.2

No. of seasons Lynch has exceeded 4.2 YPC in 7 year career = 1

(in 2012 he was 5.0, which seems to be the outlier here, as he was 4.2 in both 2011 and 2013 with SEA, and 3.5 in his 165 carries with SEA after in-season trade with BUF in 2010)

No. of career carries = 1,753 (250/yr avg over 7 seasons)

No. of carries last 3 seasons = 901 (300/yr avg)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00.htm

Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly aveage, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been injured. After 2013 (his age 28 season) he will have accumulated about 2,000 carries.

Fantasy players view Lynch as special, understandably, because of great volume totals for yards and TDs. Those in this thread who suggest he is a special talent, other than being special in the sense that he has not missed time due to injury, are mistaken. Now he's near the end, close to used up. RBs don't decline gently, they fall off the cliff. Seattle knows this, the NFL knows this.

To say that C Michael cannot be a BETTER runner at 23 than Lynch at 28 with his league average 4.2 YPC is wrong IMO. The only thing setting Lynch apart is injury, and honestly every player is just one play away from injury no matter who they are.

Yards per carry is a little simplistic a take, no? This guy breaks tackles, a lot of tackles, and makes people miss at a rate higher than anyone in the league currently:

The PFF grading system has proved to be pretty robust over the years. Marshawn Lynch broke it the night that Beastmode was born. With that run in the playoffs we had to concede that a +2 grade simply wasn’t enough of a positive grade to award for the play and had to manually alter his positive in the database.

That’s the kind of runner we’re dealing with when it comes to Lynch – a guy who can break not only a defense, but also the very grading system we’re using to evaluate him.

Lynch has always been an immensely talented runner, and I suspect had he come into the league in any other season – away from the looming shadow of Adrian Peterson – it would have taken far less time for him to get the recognition he now enjoys (or shies away from). Even back in his relatively disappointing Buffalo days he was running hard against an insurmountable scarcity of blocking.

In Seattle, though, his game has gone to another level, and he has become the workhorse that can carry that offense even with average blocking at times. That run against the Saints showed the kind of thing he is capable of, but his ability to force missed tackles is peerless in the league – even when compared to Peterson.

This season he forced 75 missed tackles as a runner in the regular season, 11 more as a receiver and the postseason added another 22 across three games. That is a ridiculous rate and by far the most PFF has ever recorded for one runner over a single season. Beastmode may have been born in one paradigm shifting run against the Saints, but he remains alive and well to this day.

Plus, contrary to popular belief, Seattle's O-line was below average to poor last season. He carried them on his back many games.

Yes but can he do this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc5VWk6VtDI

 

[cstu]

Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly aveage, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been injured.

It's not that difficult to average 4.2 YPC over one season but doing it year in and year out with 300 carries is.

Lynch is ranked #24 all-time in career YPC among RB's with 1750+ carries - ahead of guys like Emmitt, Steven Jackson, Edge, Curtis Martin and Thurman Thomas.

But he has not yet had his decline phase end-of-the-line 3.6 fall apart season(s) yet that will surely come soon. Apples (through age 27 season) and oranges (full career).

Bruce, I thought you might have something there but among RB's with 1500+ carries through age 27 he's ranked #17 in career YPC.

If I drop it down to 1000+ he drops down to #45 but still in the same range as Edge, Faulk, Forte and SJax.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

So you suggest they give him what, 2 or 3 more million this year, for a total of 9/10M and take it off of 2015 right? Then what? He's still at 6/7M next year and there is still a decision to be made. Would the Seahawks rather have him at 1 year for 7M or 2 years at 16M? Well, if they want him at 16M, they can HAVE him at 16M without doing anything to his contract. Or, they could pay him his 7M this year and then lower his salary next year if he wants to stay. If they offer him 5/6M next year on a one or two year deal, it will still likely be his best offer (maybe by far).

Here's what I'm suggesting...he's owed $7.5M in salary/roster bonus next year, with dead money of $1.5. If they convert $3M of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus spread over two years then in 2015 his dead money becomes $3M with a salary/roster bonus of $5.5M.

They'd save $1.5M that way if they cut him but it makes it a much more difficult cut than one that would save them $6M.

And if he gets cut he can sign somewhere else for at least the $3.5M/year that other RB's getting.

Yep, he gets paid more now, and makes it harder for the team to cut him next year. I get that. There are lots of scenarios that would help Lynch. What I still don't get is why Seattle would do it, certainly none of that is good for them. In the other response you mention the following:

The season opener is Sept. 4 against the Packers and Lynch could show up that day with no practice whatsoever in over 7 months.

He's a vet coming to a team with zero changes. He has no history of coming into camp out of shape that I recall. In my mind, any benefit gained there is partially or wholly balanced by less wear and tear or no risk of injury (at least DURING the pre-season). Let the young guys have the pre-season reps. They need them more than he does anyway. Would ZERO reps for Lynch be ideal? No. Would it be earth shattering? Not really. Turbin will be in his 3rd year, and Michael is either the next incarnation of ADP or he isn't. I'm sure they'd rather have Lynch firing on all cylinders for that 1st game, but... Meh.

The way I see it is that if the Seahawks have a right to cut him next year despite the contract they signed then Lynch has a right not to show up until right before the Packers game starts.

Nobody is talking about rights. They can cut him and/or he can hold out. The question is what the leverage is, and what the benefit is to the Seahawks to give him a raise at this point.

If they don't think he's worth the money to keep next year and don't care if he misses the entire preseason that's their prerogative but they better make sure they are comfortable leaning on Michael and Turbin to get them to another Super Bowl.

I am not following here. We are talking 2014 first and then 2015. For 2014, he will play, with or without a preseason. And if they want him in 2015, they can offer him whatever they think he is worth to their team at that point if they don't feel he is worth his 2015 contracted salary.

Similarly, in 2014, they don't really need to by comfy with the backups unless he holds out the entire season, which I can't realistically see. In 2015, see above. They will keep him at his given salary or they won't. Giving him an extension now just takes away possible options in 2015.

 

[cstu]

Similarly, in 2014, they don't really need to by comfy with the backups unless he holds out the entire season, which I can't realistically see. In 2015, see above. They will keep him at his given salary or they won't. Giving him an extension now just takes away possible options in 2015.

MJD had the worst season of his career after holding out last year until the start of the season. That's what I'm referring to.

 

[DropKick]

What I've seen of Michael is yes, I think he's every bit as talented as AD. There I said it. Go ahead and block me or throw some smiley emoticons at me.

I wouldn't laugh too hard. Michael has the size and athleticism to be very productive in the NFL. Personally, I think Michael was a first round talent that slipped due to character concerns. If that's behind him, he could really pay off. Here's a couple blurbs from Rotoworld. Take it at face value, but Michael doesn't have to be Peterson to be a valuable FF asset.

Texas A&M's strength coach, who has trained both Christine Michael and Adrian Peterson, said Michael's athletic explosiveness is on par with Peterson's.

The "hype" around Michael is not some fabrication. His tape is drool-worthy, and Seahawks coaches themselves are talking up getting the second-year back chances at the expense of Marshawn Lynch. Former NFL personnel man Louis Riddick tweeted Monday that when Michael "gets his chance regular season '14, provided he's healthy, he'll show he's the most gifted RB drafted in past 5 yrs."

Did you read the posts before responding? They weren't about whether he has the size and athleticism to be very productive in the NFL, whether he could really pay off, or most of the other stuff you wrote. He said that from what he has seen (which is laughable in it's own right), Michael is every bit as talented as AD. That's ridiculous.

Yes, I read it. He can have an opinion and - as extreme as it is - he went out on a limb to state his conviction. You can ridicule him if you like, peon, but Michael has gotten similar high praise from NFL talent personnel. You know... like the other stuff I wrote.

 

[Neofight]

Lynch career YPC = 4.2

Lynch YPC, Seattle carries only = 4.3

Lynch 2013 YPC = 4.2

League avg 2013 YPC = 4.2

No. of seasons Lynch has exceeded 4.2 YPC in 7 year career = 1

(in 2012 he was 5.0, which seems to be the outlier here, as he was 4.2 in both 2011 and 2013 with SEA, and 3.5 in his 165 carries with SEA after in-season trade with BUF in 2010)

No. of career carries = 1,753 (250/yr avg over 7 seasons)

No. of carries last 3 seasons = 901 (300/yr avg)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00.htm

Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly aveage, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been injured. After 2013 (his age 28 season) he will have accumulated about 2,000 carries.

Fantasy players view Lynch as special, understandably, because of great volume totals for yards and TDs. Those in this thread who suggest he is a special talent, other than being special in the sense that he has not missed time due to injury, are mistaken. Now he's near the end, close to used up. RBs don't decline gently, they fall off the cliff. Seattle knows this, the NFL knows this.

To say that C Michael cannot be a BETTER runner at 23 than Lynch at 28 with his league average 4.2 YPC is wrong IMO. The only thing setting Lynch apart is injury, and honestly every player is just one play away from injury no matter who they are.

Yards per carry is a little simplistic a take, no? This guy breaks tackles, a lot of tackles, and makes people miss at a rate higher than anyone in the league currently:

The PFF grading system has proved to be pretty robust over the years. Marshawn Lynch broke it the night that Beastmode was born. With that run in the playoffs we had to concede that a +2 grade simply wasn’t enough of a positive grade to award for the play and had to manually alter his positive in the database.

That’s the kind of runner we’re dealing with when it comes to Lynch – a guy who can break not only a defense, but also the very grading system we’re using to evaluate him.

Lynch has always been an immensely talented runner, and I suspect had he come into the league in any other season – away from the looming shadow of Adrian Peterson – it would have taken far less time for him to get the recognition he now enjoys (or shies away from). Even back in his relatively disappointing Buffalo days he was running hard against an insurmountable scarcity of blocking.

In Seattle, though, his game has gone to another level, and he has become the workhorse that can carry that offense even with average blocking at times. That run against the Saints showed the kind of thing he is capable of, but his ability to force missed tackles is peerless in the league – even when compared to Peterson.

This season he forced 75 missed tackles as a runner in the regular season, 11 more as a receiver and the postseason added another 22 across three games. That is a ridiculous rate and by far the most PFF has ever recorded for one runner over a single season. Beastmode may have been born in one paradigm shifting run against the Saints, but he remains alive and well to this day.

Plus, contrary to popular belief, Seattle's O-line was below average to poor last season. He carried them on his back many games.

Lynch was 4.2, Michael 4.4, behind the same O-Line, and when Michael was in everyone knew it was to run the ball. That flowery article drips of fanboyism with the way it reads. Talk about being all over someone's jock. Lynch has a YPC of 4.2, behind all lines over 7 years, those are the facts. Maybe he's having to break so many tackles because he's not getting through the line or finding the right holes as fast as he should.

Didn't peg you for a fisherman.

 

[Neofight]

Lynch career YPC = 4.2

Lynch YPC, Seattle carries only = 4.3

Lynch 2013 YPC = 4.2

League avg 2013 YPC = 4.2

No. of seasons Lynch has exceeded 4.2 YPC in 7 year career = 1

(in 2012 he was 5.0, which seems to be the outlier here, as he was 4.2 in both 2011 and 2013 with SEA, and 3.5 in his 165 carries with SEA after in-season trade with BUF in 2010)

No. of career carries = 1,753 (250/yr avg over 7 seasons)

No. of carries last 3 seasons = 901 (300/yr avg)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00.htm

Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly aveage, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been injured. After 2013 (his age 28 season) he will have accumulated about 2,000 carries.

Fantasy players view Lynch as special, understandably, because of great volume totals for yards and TDs. Those in this thread who suggest he is a special talent, other than being special in the sense that he has not missed time due to injury, are mistaken. Now he's near the end, close to used up. RBs don't decline gently, they fall off the cliff. Seattle knows this, the NFL knows this.

To say that C Michael cannot be a BETTER runner at 23 than Lynch at 28 with his league average 4.2 YPC is wrong IMO. The only thing setting Lynch apart is injury, and honestly every player is just one play away from injury no matter who they are.

Yards per carry is a little simplistic a take, no? This guy breaks tackles, a lot of tackles, and makes people miss at a rate higher than anyone in the league currently:

The PFF grading system has proved to be pretty robust over the years. Marshawn Lynch broke it the night that Beastmode was born. With that run in the playoffs we had to concede that a +2 grade simply wasn’t enough of a positive grade to award for the play and had to manually alter his positive in the database.

That’s the kind of runner we’re dealing with when it comes to Lynch – a guy who can break not only a defense, but also the very grading system we’re using to evaluate him.

Lynch has always been an immensely talented runner, and I suspect had he come into the league in any other season – away from the looming shadow of Adrian Peterson – it would have taken far less time for him to get the recognition he now enjoys (or shies away from). Even back in his relatively disappointing Buffalo days he was running hard against an insurmountable scarcity of blocking.

In Seattle, though, his game has gone to another level, and he has become the workhorse that can carry that offense even with average blocking at times. That run against the Saints showed the kind of thing he is capable of, but his ability to force missed tackles is peerless in the league – even when compared to Peterson.

This season he forced 75 missed tackles as a runner in the regular season, 11 more as a receiver and the postseason added another 22 across three games. That is a ridiculous rate and by far the most PFF has ever recorded for one runner over a single season. Beastmode may have been born in one paradigm shifting run against the Saints, but he remains alive and well to this day.

Plus, contrary to popular belief, Seattle's O-line was below average to poor last season. He carried them on his back many games.

Yes but can he do this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc5VWk6VtDI

That run was cute compared to Beastquake. Adrian only stiffed armed his defender like two yards.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

Um, gentlemen, just because I have different views than you doesn't mean I'm trolling or I'm a fisherman. It's allowed to have an opinion of my own on a message board. Thanks.

I had Lynch in two leagues, sold him off in both this offseason. I've put my money where my mouth is. Feel free to hold him until he has zero value after 2,000+ carries and no starting job, that's up to you, but don't call me trolling because I'm being proactive and you prefer to assume past numbers = future numbers.

 

[Neofight]

Um, gentlemen, just because I have different views than you doesn't mean I'm trolling or I'm a fisherman. It's allowed to have an opinion of my own on a message board. Thanks.

I had Lynch in two leagues, sold him off in both this offseason. I've put my money where my mouth is. Feel free to hold him until he has zero value after 2,000+ carries and no starting job, that's up to you, but don't call me trolling because I'm being proactive and you prefer to assume past numbers = future numbers.

No you're not.

ETA: I've already grabbed Michael where I can. But I'm aware that Lynch is a top 3 back in the league as I type this.

ETAII: But does it put lotion in the basket?

 

[humpback]

What I've seen of Michael is yes, I think he's every bit as talented as AD. There I said it. Go ahead and block me or throw some smiley emoticons at me.

I wouldn't laugh too hard. Michael has the size and athleticism to be very productive in the NFL. Personally, I think Michael was a first round talent that slipped due to character concerns. If that's behind him, he could really pay off. Here's a couple blurbs from Rotoworld. Take it at face value, but Michael doesn't have to be Peterson to be a valuable FF asset.

Texas A&M's strength coach, who has trained both Christine Michael and Adrian Peterson, said Michael's athletic explosiveness is on par with Peterson's.

The "hype" around Michael is not some fabrication. His tape is drool-worthy, and Seahawks coaches themselves are talking up getting the second-year back chances at the expense of Marshawn Lynch. Former NFL personnel man Louis Riddick tweeted Monday that when Michael "gets his chance regular season '14, provided he's healthy, he'll show he's the most gifted RB drafted in past 5 yrs."

Did you read the posts before responding? They weren't about whether he has the size and athleticism to be very productive in the NFL, whether he could really pay off, or most of the other stuff you wrote. He said that from what he has seen (which is laughable in it's own right), Michael is every bit as talented as AD. That's ridiculous.

Yes, I read it. He can have an opinion and - as extreme as it is - he went out on a limb to state his conviction. You can ridicule him if you like, peon, but Michael has gotten very high praise from NFL talent personnel. You know... like the other stuff I wrote.

Well then I guess your reading comprehension sucks because none of the nonsense you wrote had anything to do with those posts, peon. Tell me one NFL "talent personnel" (that's made up) who says Michael is as talented (note: not remotely the same thing as explosive) as AD.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Similarly, in 2014, they don't really need to by comfy with the backups unless he holds out the entire season, which I can't realistically see. In 2015, see above. They will keep him at his given salary or they won't. Giving him an extension now just takes away possible options in 2015.

MJD had the worst season of his career after holding out last year until the start of the season. That's what I'm referring to.

Coming off a Lis Franc he couldn't do much in the off season. I don't see how you can equate the two, since Lynch is fully capable of working out and staying in shape...

 

[identikit]

Um, gentlemen, just because I have different views than you doesn't mean I'm trolling or I'm a fisherman. It's allowed to have an opinion of my own on a message board. Thanks.

I had Lynch in two leagues, sold him off in both this offseason. I've put my money where my mouth is. Feel free to hold him until he has zero value after 2,000+ carries and no starting job, that's up to you, but don't call me trolling because I'm being proactive and you prefer to assume past numbers = future numbers.

You're 100% correct that you can have your own opinion.

But to claim the bolded is what people that disagree with you do, yet you do the same, well, that's disingenuous.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Lynch career YPC = 4.2

Lynch YPC, Seattle carries only = 4.3

Lynch 2013 YPC = 4.2

League avg 2013 YPC = 4.2

No. of seasons Lynch has exceeded 4.2 YPC in 7 year career = 1

(in 2012 he was 5.0, which seems to be the outlier here, as he was 4.2 in both 2011 and 2013 with SEA, and 3.5 in his 165 carries with SEA after in-season trade with BUF in 2010)

No. of career carries = 1,753 (250/yr avg over 7 seasons)

No. of carries last 3 seasons = 901 (300/yr avg)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00.htm

Lynch is an average talent, just about exactly aveage, who has been a high volume runner and (so far) has not been injured. After 2013 (his age 28 season) he will have accumulated about 2,000 carries.

Fantasy players view Lynch as special, understandably, because of great volume totals for yards and TDs. Those in this thread who suggest he is a special talent, other than being special in the sense that he has not missed time due to injury, are mistaken. Now he's near the end, close to used up. RBs don't decline gently, they fall off the cliff. Seattle knows this, the NFL knows this.

To say that C Michael cannot be a BETTER runner at 23 than Lynch at 28 with his league average 4.2 YPC is wrong IMO. The only thing setting Lynch apart is injury, and honestly every player is just one play away from injury no matter who they are.

Yards per carry is a little simplistic a take, no? This guy breaks tackles, a lot of tackles, and makes people miss at a rate higher than anyone in the league currently:

The PFF grading system has proved to be pretty robust over the years. Marshawn Lynch broke it the night that Beastmode was born. With that run in the playoffs we had to concede that a +2 grade simply wasn’t enough of a positive grade to award for the play and had to manually alter his positive in the database.

That’s the kind of runner we’re dealing with when it comes to Lynch – a guy who can break not only a defense, but also the very grading system we’re using to evaluate him.

Lynch has always been an immensely talented runner, and I suspect had he come into the league in any other season – away from the looming shadow of Adrian Peterson – it would have taken far less time for him to get the recognition he now enjoys (or shies away from). Even back in his relatively disappointing Buffalo days he was running hard against an insurmountable scarcity of blocking.

In Seattle, though, his game has gone to another level, and he has become the workhorse that can carry that offense even with average blocking at times. That run against the Saints showed the kind of thing he is capable of, but his ability to force missed tackles is peerless in the league – even when compared to Peterson.

This season he forced 75 missed tackles as a runner in the regular season, 11 more as a receiver and the postseason added another 22 across three games. That is a ridiculous rate and by far the most PFF has ever recorded for one runner over a single season. Beastmode may have been born in one paradigm shifting run against the Saints, but he remains alive and well to this day.

Plus, contrary to popular belief, Seattle's O-line was below average to poor last season. He carried them on his back many games.

Lynch was 4.2, Michael 4.4, behind the same O-Line, and when Michael was in everyone knew it was to run the ball. That flowery article drips of fanboyism with the way it reads. Talk about being all over someone's jock. Lynch has a YPC of 4.2, behind all lines over 7 years, those are the facts. Maybe he's having to break so many tackles because he's not getting through the line or finding the right holes as fast as he should.

Did you really just cite YPC of a player who had 18 carries? Really? Did you? Did you really? Did you? Really?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

To be clear about my earlier comparison of C. Michael to ADP. I never said anything about expecting Lynch to not be the starter and workhorse for the Seahawks in 2014. I expect Lynch to suck up his pride and come back to the Hawks, and the early retirement talk will prove to be just an insolent rant.

Now, what I did say: I said C. Michael, assuming he takes over in 2015 is as good as 30 yo ADP, or 29 yo Lynch will be. Is that really so ridiculous to say, given you believe in a players talent? This is a young man's game, especially for RB's. If Lynch gets hurt or even dinged a little, Michael is going to be a top fantasy RB to own going into 2015. I didn't make any direct comparisons to ADP or even Lynch in their prime. Michael needs to prove himself to be in that discussion.