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overvalued/bust players for 2006 (1 Viewer)

Undervalued - Wilford. The kid will break out this year.

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When I was doing my WR rankings this year, I looked long and hard at this guy. His measurables are nothing special, but it's not like there haven't been success stories for guys like him before. I wonder what Jax fans think of him?While 1st round WR picks Matt Jones and Reggie Williams get all the hype, Ernest Wilford just comes in and makes catches. He reminds me of Scottie Vines in Detroit.

41 catches and 35 of them went for a first down. Seems pretty darn valuable to Jax.

 
Just wondering why you have Holt as undervalued? The guy produces year in, year out.. Is it because he was nicked up for a few games last year?

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For the numbers I see him put up year in and out, he always seems ranked too low to me. He gets put behind Moss and Harrison quite often.This year, I think the WR rankings should be:

1. Steve Smith

2. Torry Holt

3. Boldin/Fitz (take your pick)

Nobody ever seems to rank Holt high enough. That's all I'm saying.

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I've got Holt #1. He is consistently my favorite fantasy WR. Got Jamie Martin or Ryan Fitzpatrick or Chris Chandler throwing you the ball? No ####### problem.
 
Okay now for my actual list.

Over:

Daunte Culpepper

Carson Palmer

-- Gonna be well into pre-season before we figure out if these guys will be there to start the season, and how effective they will be.

Larry Fitzgerald

Lee Evans

Randy Moss

Kevin Jones

Under:

Ben Roethlisberger

Billy Volek

Kevin Curtis

Corey Dillon

Kind of on the fence about Lamont Jordan. During the 2005 pre-season, I said he resembled a guy who was destined for one(possibly two)-hit wonderdom. This season could say a lot.

 
Who are your overvalued/bust players for 2006?

Who are your undervalued/sleepers for 2006?

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need some sorta ADP to know. What are you going off of? Just chatter here and taking a guess?
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I think it has some to do with feel, some to do with looking at mock drafts, and some to do with actual drafts. I think we judge value by the boards, sometimes this is a good thing, other times it is not. We cannot judge value solely by the momentum of a player's board status
 
overvalued:

Lamont Jordan - unless you'rein a PPR league, this guy is below average..

3.8 per carry and barely 1000 yards is journeyman-like..

coached by the best offensive minded coach when it comes to RB's, Norv Turner..

he squeezed Jordan for all he's worth.new coaching staff, many of whom have been out of football for a decade now..

reminds me of errict wrett: great hands, painfully slow..

<Denver's rbs> - Shanny seems to have quietly, secretly, switched over to RBBC..saw it happen last year, it looks like it could continue with Dayne/Bell..

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First off, Turner is the best offensive-minded coach when it comes to RBs? SAY WHAT?!?!Priest Holmes and Marshall Faulk were, when in their prime, the two most productive backs in FF history- yes, even over Tomlinson or Alexander. Neither of them was coached by Norv Turner. In fact, I think they shared the same coach. Yes, yes, I recall now... wrinkly little emotional guy. Went by the name of **** Vermeil. Sound familiar?

Then there's Denver. 8 seasons, 5 different 1,000 yard rushers (including Anderson twice with a 4 year haitus in between), and a 900 yard rusher for good measure. I think that Shanahan guy might have a claim to that RB-minded coach title, too.

Regarding Denver's RBs...

If I told you right now for certain that an RB was going to finish in the top 10 in scoring next season, would you draft him in the first two rounds? What if I told you afterwards that his backup would get 150 carries, too. Would you still draft him in the first two rounds? Because I sure would. That would be like avoiding Boldin or Fitzgerald because the other guy in the rotation is pretty good, too. As long as your guy is putting up numbers, what do you care how good the other guy is?

Unless your scoring system penalizes backs for yards gained by their backup, you'd have to be a total fool to pass on a piece of the Denver pie.

 
Just wondering why you have Holt as undervalued? The guy produces year in, year out.. Is it because he was nicked up for a few games last year?

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For the numbers I see him put up year in and out, he always seems ranked too low to me. He gets put behind Moss and Harrison quite often.This year, I think the WR rankings should be:

1. Steve Smith

2. Torry Holt

3. Boldin/Fitz (take your pick)

Nobody ever seems to rank Holt high enough. That's all I'm saying.

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I've got Holt #1. He is consistently my favorite fantasy WR. Got Jamie Martin or Ryan Fitzpatrick or Chris Chandler throwing you the ball? No ####### problem.
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Holt has a lot of things going for him and I think I'll have him as the #1 WR this year as well. Steve Smith and Boldin have injury pasts which, while not the end all be all, is enough to move Holt ahead of him. Holt is significantly more proven and has less changes to the offense than Fitz, who now has a legit RB on his team. Holt seems to be the clear #1 with less question marks around him.
 
I think LJ will be overvalued, because he is losing Vermeil, who is one of the great offensive minds of this era. His numbers will suffer, in my opinion. I will be very interested to see the KC offense without Vermeil.

Undervalued, Joe Horn always seemed to be overlooked and always put up numbers. His injury problems last year will scare people. I'm not one of them.

 
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Regarding Denver's RBs...

If I told you right now for certain that an RB was going to finish in the top 10 in scoring next season, would you draft him in the first two rounds?

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A slightly more interesting hypothetical.If I could guarantee you that "a" Denver RB would finish top 10 in scoring, but we don't know which one it is out of three choices. How early would you take one of those choices?

 
I think LJ will be overvalued, because he is losing Vermeil, who is one of the great offensive minds of this era. His numbers will suffer, in my opinion. I will be very interested to see the KC offense without Vermeil.

Undervalued, Joe Horn always seemed to be overlooked and always put up numbers. His injury problems last year will scare people. I'm not one of them.

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:no: Vermiel, while a very good offensive mind, began to lose a lot in the last couple years.The loss of Al Saunders is a lot more important.

I agree with your reasoning, but you're giving too much credit to the wrong guy.

 
agreed. Saunders exit hurts LJ and helps Portis. I still think Portis will be the #1 or #2 back taken in 2007.

 
Over--

Marion Barber - seems as though he's being annointed as the best rb in the NFL by some people in here..jeez..he's a 2nd stringer..JJ is the #1 guy, and will be all year if he doesn't get hurt,like any other NFL player, injuries happen..
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The writing is on the wall.-Rumors JJ was being offered for a 2nd or 3rd round pick draft day.

-Cowboys brought in a number of RBs for interviews (when you can only bring in 30 guys, you don't waste them on positions you don't need).

-Parcells said he likes JJ, just doesn't think he can stay healthy for an entire season.

-JJ couldn't even stay healthy in college.

-Last year final 9 games, they pretty much split carries (60/40).

-Barber was in the game in the RZ far more then JJ.

-JJ didn't get 100 yards until week 16.

I wouldn't be surprised if Barber is the starter day 1. If JJ gets banged up AT ALL preseason, Parcells is going to name Barber the starter and be done with it.

So we have a rookie RB, who in the last half of the season pretty much split time with JJ. Barber also scored as many TDs as JJ. This is hardly "hoping for an injury". JJ owners are hoping Parcells sticks with a guy he doesn't believe in.

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I have to agree here. I am not a Julius Jones or MB3 owner, but I have never been a fan of Julius Jones. I thought he was a reach as an injury prone second round pick out of ND who had difficulties distinguishing himself as the unquestioned starter. Jones was able to post solid numbers in 2004 based on the ridiculous number of carries he received. I believe the only competition that year was a washed up Eddie George and "The Famous" ReShard Lee. MB3 is far better competition which will keep JJ's carries in check and numbers mediocre.

I like MB3's upside more than JJ's. I have these guys ranked comparable on my sheets. JJ may enter the season as the starter, but either injuries or mediocrity will force MB3 to get a shot early on.

 
Over--

Marion Barber - seems as though he's being annointed as the best rb in the NFL by some people in here..jeez..he's a 2nd stringer..JJ is the #1 guy, and will be all year if he doesn't get hurt,like any other NFL player, injuries happen..
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The writing is on the wall.-Rumors JJ was being offered for a 2nd or 3rd round pick draft day.

-Cowboys brought in a number of RBs for interviews (when you can only bring in 30 guys, you don't waste them on positions you don't need).

-Parcells said he likes JJ, just doesn't think he can stay healthy for an entire season.

-JJ couldn't even stay healthy in college.

-Last year final 9 games, they pretty much split carries (60/40).

-Barber was in the game in the RZ far more then JJ.

-JJ didn't get 100 yards until week 16.

I wouldn't be surprised if Barber is the starter day 1. If JJ gets banged up AT ALL preseason, Parcells is going to name Barber the starter and be done with it.

So we have a rookie RB, who in the last half of the season pretty much split time with JJ. Barber also scored as many TDs as JJ. This is hardly "hoping for an injury". JJ owners are hoping Parcells sticks with a guy he doesn't believe in.

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:goodposting:
 
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Can we see some ADPs before getting into this?

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http://www.antsports.com/ADP.aspx

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Did you actually try to use the site?
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yes. it is not working for some reason. it is good when it works
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OK, so it's not just me. Nice to know. :D
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I check it daily and it never works. What's up with antsports this year?
 
Can we see some ADPs before getting into this?

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http://www.antsports.com/ADP.aspx

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Did you actually try to use the site?
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yes. it is not working for some reason. it is good when it works
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OK, so it's not just me. Nice to know. :D
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It was working for me a few weeks ago, and if you check my topics started, you'll see a thread with ADP from antsports. It didn't work for me when I tried a few days ago.
 
Looks like Antsports just reset everything. I'm clicking "ANY" position and "all drafts" and there's 5 drafts in the # of drats column. There is an ADP for players but.....

ETA here's what would amount to the 4th round:

34. Tatum Bell RB DEN 4.03.00 2.04 5.07 20.42 3

35. Hines Ward WR PIT 4.03.33 3.09 4.08 05.69 3

36. Andre Johnson WR HOU 4.03.67 3.12 4.07 03.51 3

37. Warrick Dunn RB ATL 4.04.67 3.03 5.02 12.10 3

38. Javon Walker WR GBP 4.05.33 3.12 4.09 04.73 3

39. Deuce McAllister RB NOS 4.07.00 2.10 5.07 18.25 3

40. Carson Palmer QB CIN 4.08.33 4.04 5.01 04.51 3

41. Dominic Rhodes RB IND 4.11.67 4.05 5.06 06.51 3

42. DeShaun Foster RB CAR 4.12.33 3.04 6.05 18.77 3

43. Corey Dillon RB NEP 4.12.67 3.11 5.12 12.66 3

plus

44. Ahman Green RB GBP 5.11.67 4.02 7.05 19.86 3

45. Donovan McNabb QB PHI 5.12.33 4.03 7.04 19.14 3

46. Joe Horn WR NOS 6.09.00 3.08 8.07 32.23 3

 
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Regarding Denver's RBs...

If I told you right now for certain that an RB was going to finish in the top 10 in scoring next season, would you draft him in the first two rounds?

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A slightly more interesting hypothetical.If I could guarantee you that "a" Denver RB would finish top 10 in scoring, but we don't know which one it is out of three choices. How early would you take one of those choices?

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First off, I don't think I ever approach a positional battle without at least some opinion on how it'd shape up. I'd always have it as a 50% chance for one guy and a 25% chance for each of the others. If that was the case (one player had, in my mind, a 50% chance), then I'd grab him in the 3rd for sure, maybe even late in the second (if I didn't think he'd last a couple more picks to my early 3rd rounder). Lots of gambles for RBs wind up failing miserably... so you might as well gamble for one with top-10 upside. I'd much rather have a guy who might score me top-10 type points than a guy who'll only see my lineup during bye weeks, but will get me 6 points for those weeks.Since this is a hypothetical situation, though, we'll assume that I'm completely torn and give all 3 guys a perfect 33% chance. In that case, I'll play it one of two ways. If I'm drafting in the middle, I'll wait until the other 2 go off the board and then take the third one with my next pick (giving me the best possible value of the bunch). If I'm drafting towards either end, I'll grab two of them with back-to-back picks in the 6th and 7th or the 7th and 8th, making me the odds-on favorite to wind up with a top-10 RB. This is assuming that I have two other somewhat reliable RBs already, so I'm gambling on gravy and not on actual meat and potatos.

To be honest, though, the only reason I say that is because before the draft, I always think I'm right in my evaluation. I feel like waiting that long would be a risk-adverse behavior (stocking up early in the draft on "safe" picks). When you look at it objectively, though, something like 50% of even the first and second round draft picks wind up underperforming drastically (i.e. there are no "safe" picks). As a result, a 33% chance at a top-10 RB is still pretty good odds, so while the opportunity cost might prevent you from grabbing all 3 of the backs early in the draft, I think that grabbing one in the third is an EXTREMELY smart play. I mean, 50% of third rounders are going to underperform (compared to a 66% chance for your theoretical pick), but not many third round RBs have a top-10 upside to offset that.

 
Regarding Denver's RBs...

If I told you right now for certain that an RB was going to finish in the top 10 in scoring next season, would you draft him in the first two rounds?

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A slightly more interesting hypothetical.If I could guarantee you that "a" Denver RB would finish top 10 in scoring, but we don't know which one it is out of three choices. How early would you take one of those choices?

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You beat me to the puch KRS, I agree with you. The problem with most rankings is that they see RBBC and think automatically that both RBs should be in the 20's range. In reality, one should be ranked in the 8-15 range and the other in the 20's. Rankings should read something like this:1. ...

2. ...

.

.

.

10. Denver starter (Dayne?)

.

.

.

22. Denver backup (Bell?)

The problem is that we don't know who will get the bulk of the carries and make him worth the high pick. It turns out to be a gamble and a bit of luck if you draft the right guy.

 
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Okay now for my actual list.

Over:

Daunte Culpepper

Carson Palmer

-- Gonna be well into pre-season before we figure out if these guys will be there to start the season, and how effective they will be.

Larry Fitzgerald

Lee Evans

Randy Moss

Kevin Jones

Under:

Ben Roethlisberger

Billy Volek

Kevin Curtis

Corey Dillon

Kind of on the fence about Lamont Jordan.  During the 2005 pre-season, I said he resembled a guy who was destined for one(possibly two)-hit wonderdom.  This season could say a lot.

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:goodposting: Totally on board with what you are saying here, especially QBwise on the "Overs".

Here's an overvalue I really haven't seen talked about.....Edge. Not sure what his ADP is currently but if he goes off the board at 3-6, I think you are going to be disappointed. His situation going from IND to AZ certainly didn't improve.

QB--Manning>Warner

WR--Harrsion/Wayne=Fitz/Boldin or at least close

OL--IND>>AZ....not even close. That's what will cost him the most production loss.

 
Redraft this year:

Over-rated:

* C Palmer

* All the rookie RB's this year

* Caddy (way overrated)

* Mcgahee (again)

* Z Hilton

* Fitz & Boldin

Under-rated:

* K Warner

* P Rivers

* C Taylor

* H Ward

* Gonzo

 
Underated

Joe Jurevicius - had a career year with Seattle and is going into a situation with the Browns where he may be the defacto WR1 until Edwards is healthy.

David Givens - Again, fell into a great situation with the Titans. Will form a great tandem with Drew Bennett (who is better and more comfortable as a WR2). Was undervalued in New England where he never put up quality fantasy stats because he was never featured in their offense.

Derrick Mason - Has been hampered with sub-quality QBs during his time with the Ravens. But, if he is reunited with Steve McNair, then his numbers should improve significantly.

Andrew Walter - The buzz is starting to increase about Walter after the Raiders passed on taking a QB in the first round of the draft. Rumored to be a favorite of Al Davis, it is only a matter of time before he takes over the reigns from Brooks and will have excellent targets in Moss, Porter, and Jordan.

Overated

Carson Palmer - Anyone who thinks Palmer will be back in week 1 is kidding themselves. He will miss significant time and may not be 100% the entire season. Palmer is an outstanding QB, but given the injury and the Bengals schedule, he will be hard pressed to improve upon his 2005 numbers this year.

LaDainian Tomlinson - Towards the end of 2005, LT might have started to show the effects of the wear and tear of multiple years of overuse in Marty's run heavy offense. It could be a blip, but it could also be the beginning of the end ala Terrell Davis. Buyer beware if you are expecting him to return to form and play all sixteen games.

 
Now that the rankings are out we can add to this discussion. I'll say it again, Tiki at RB5 doesn't offer much value, I think that calling him undervalued is a non-starter.

Woz said:
It's relative to your current social groups. I'm in law school now so the fact that I can do a pushup and have some friends makes me pretty ####### cool.
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Now that the rankings are out we can add to this discussion. I'll say it again, Tiki at RB5 doesn't offer much value, I think that calling him undervalued is a non-starter.
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good time to bumpI think Palmer will be undervalued. It is looking like he will start week 1.

 
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