Run It Up said:
PhD said:
So BB and the gang went back to the scene of the crime to shift the perspective of the evidence. So basic. Not even believable in the best of Hollywood scripts.
Seriously though, they came off better when they were saying it's not a big deal. Now they just seem to be a little too defensive as if they are trying vehemently to end the conversation that is getting dangerously close to something really really bad.
There are many arguments against their pseudoscience.
Such as?
OK, I'll bite -
Where was the science? use of terms like atmospheric conditions and equilibrium?
He refers to an "internal study" but he has the luxury to hide behind the fact that he "is not a scientist" so he does not have to answer to the specific questions, and although he notes that they consulted with lots of people, he does not give the names (so no one can get more scientific information). Bottom line is that when running studies there are details that are critical to review and they need to be clearly and carefully clarified. For example:
(1) define the "process" the balls go through - he didn't come close other than referring to rub downs;
(2) define the timing of the "process" vs the timing of the game day process. He seems to suggest that on game day the rub down process continues to occur right up to the time in which the balls are handed to the officials. Really? This isn't something that is prepared ahead of time? something so important to every QB isn't settled until just before it is given to the officials? If it is done ahead of time then how far ahead? How long do they "process" the balls on game day? How long did you "process" the balls for the internal study? What is the change in psi from the last rub down to the handing off to the officials? For that matter how long does it take the officials to measure the psi after getting the balls from the team? Is this important? Well, that too is an empirical question - ie, if there is no change between the official hand off to the official measurement then it isn't important, but until that is demonstrated it would be a variable that needs to be considered and then compared between the internal study and the actual game day process.
(3) they used "multiple" balls in their internal study, "not just one." Well, how many? 2? 6? 12? 24? 48? Maybe it seems crazy to test 48 balls, but isn't that how many were included in the total set at game day? Heck Pats, at least tell us that you tested 12 balls just like the allegedly tampered set on game day. The sample size is a HUGE variable here (think about all the fantasy football stats issues here when we go into sample size - same variable here that needs to be defined). Based on his report, unless I missed something, they could have done this with 2.
(4) They put the balls through simulated game day situations -- this needs to be operationally defined. What do they think happens to the ball during a game? at what force? at what frequency? (cue the Gronk lovers here). How did they simulate that exactly?
(5) They refer to "controlled conditions" which seemed to imply at least the temperature of the rooms. Anything else effect the air pressure of a ball? If it was truly controlled then this would be one of the easiest points to define.
(6) BB notes a critical issue towards the end of his explanation in that he says that gauges vary in their measurements and no two footballs are exactly alike. The latter point is a big reason why they need to define their sample size (and it had better have been substantial). The measurement variance is huge. It would not be too difficult to determine the type of gauge used by officials at the stadium and then use the exact same type. The whole internal study can hinge on this point alone. They may have a gauge that is inconsistent with the officials measurements, making any comparison invalid. Heck their gauge may be inconsistent/unreliable thereby giving a different measurement post simulation simply because it gives a different reading each time. They need to define that too (getting tired of this yet?)
(7) The QB "feel test". OK, now we are going into some social psychology. BB explained that they had their QBs test the feel to see if they could differentiate between the balls based on psi. You really mean to tell me that rookie backup Garappollo is going to say that he can feel the difference when (a) the internal study may hinge on this AND (b) the great Tommy Boy already said that he couldn't do it? Right. The social pressure alone makes this an invalid "measurement". They need to test other QBs. Now keep in mind that many QBs have already said that they could do this but even those opinions should be tested for accuracy - that is IF you are trying to conduct some sort of internal scientific study.
(8) Finally, not really part of their study but he makes a big claim that they train in extreme conditions and they would never go the opposite route and train with weak equipment [my words, not his]. This is at best irrelevant and worse part of the point of advantage - what they do when they train isn't the issue, it's game day balls. That said, if they trained hard and had it easy on game day it boosts confidence if not performance (e.g., try running with ankle weights for 10-min and then run a sprint and tell me you don't feel faster).
Does some of this sound overly demanding? Well, that is the detail of science for you. Definition and replication within a scientific method is required.
If this was done to settle the masses it seemed to work a little bit, based on the reactions of so many of you. But, if this was meant to hold water as a scientific study ... sorry. The NFL could and should shoot this junk down pretty easily.