Philip Rivers -- anyone see him play a lot (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

My observation: the people who've seen Philip Rivers play the most tend to be the highest on him. The people who are low on Rivers tend to be people who haven't seen him play much (if at all).

Here's my question: Is there anybody here who both (a) has seen Philip Rivers take at least 100 snaps (college or pro, preseason, regular season, or practice), and (b) doesn't think he'll be a top 15 fantasy QB this year?

Answer here if you meet both criteria (a) and (b).

 

[Sigfawn]

My observation: the people who've seen Philip Rivers play the most tend to be the highest on him. The people who are low on Rivers tend to be people who haven't seen him play much (if at all).Here's my question: Is there anybody here who both (a) has seen Philip Rivers take at least 100 snaps (college or pro, preseason, regular season, or practice), and (b) doesn't think he'll be a top 15 fantasy QB this year?Answer here if you meet both criteria (a) and (b).

a) Yes I have.b) No I don't.I thought Leaf was one of the most physically gifted QBs to come into the league in the last 15 years. I also saw him take a bunch of snaps. If you go back to 1990, get all the film on every stud college QB, watch it all, there is no way Leaf isn't a top 5 QB. What does this have to do with Rivers? He's an unknown. Despite the film, the measurables, the talent around him. It's still an unknown. If you could project - with ANY accuracy - to the nfl, you wouldn't have Couch taken 1st overall. Or Harrington 3rd overall. Even well paid experts, whose job it is to know this stuff, get it wrong - all the time. He could be a top 15 qb. He might miss the top 15. I don't know. What happens if his first game, he throws 2 ints and 0 tds? Will he bounce back? I don't know. If the Chargers go 0-2, is he going to start pressing? If they go 2-0, is he going to start getting sloppy? How does he handle winning? Losing? Bad games? Bad 1st quarters? Radio talk shows ripping him apart? National spotlight? People telling his wife he sucks? He has some nice upside. If you can get him at the right spot, he's a great pick. There’s just a ton of stuff we don’t know about Rivers.Would you bet your house he's a top 15QB? You have him ranked ahead ofDelhommeFavreBig BenCpeppWarnerLeftwichBledsoeBreesCarrSimmsKitnaMaybe I missed the Kool-aid on this one, but I'd take most of those guys over Rivers in a heartbeat.

 

[Despyzer]

I thought Leaf was one of the most physically gifted QBs to come into the league in the last 15 years. I also saw him take a bunch of snaps. If you go back to 1990, get all the film on every stud college QB, watch it all, there is no way Leaf isn't a top 5 QB.

I have heard this comparison of Rivers to Leaf several times this off-season, and other than being starters at the same position for the same franchise, I have a hard time seeing too many correlations. Anyone who grew up in Montana and followed the WSU Cougars can tell you, Leaf was an emotional time bomb prepped to explode at any moment. He had all the physical tools to be great, but he blew himself up mentally.What are the indications that this will happen to Rivers?

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Answer here if you meet both criteria (a) and (b).

No way this thread fetches both those criteria, unfortunately, but I would love to see it.

 

[Sigfawn]

I thought Leaf was one of the most physically gifted QBs to come into the league in the last 15 years. I also saw him take a bunch of snaps. If you go back to 1990, get all the film on every stud college QB, watch it all, there is no way Leaf isn't a top 5 QB.

I have heard this comparison of Rivers to Leaf several times this off-season, and other than being starters at the same position for the same franchise, I have a hard time seeing too many correlations. Anyone who grew up in Montana and followed the WSU Cougars can tell you, Leaf was an emotional time bomb prepped to explode at any moment. He had all the physical tools to be great, but he blew himself up mentally.What are the indications that this will happen to Rivers?

Try reading the rest of my post before replying.I said all this shows is Rivers is an UNKNOWN. You can't project much in the NFL. So what basis are you using for Rivers being top 15? Mostly his college career.

 

[rzrback77]

I thought Leaf was one of the most physically gifted QBs to come into the league in the last 15 years. I also saw him take a bunch of snaps. If you go back to 1990, get all the film on every stud college QB, watch it all, there is no way Leaf isn't a top 5 QB.

I have heard this comparison of Rivers to Leaf several times this off-season, and other than being starters at the same position for the same franchise, I have a hard time seeing too many correlations. Anyone who grew up in Montana and followed the WSU Cougars can tell you, Leaf was an emotional time bomb prepped to explode at any moment. He had all the physical tools to be great, but he blew himself up mentally.What are the indications that this will happen to Rivers?

Try reading the rest of my post before replying.I said all this shows is Rivers is an UNKNOWN. You can't project much in the NFL. So what basis are you using for Rivers being top 15? Mostly his college career.

Not meaning to question, but your argument stresses the unknown. I've already read that and understND. but could you detail your experience watching him, part a?Thanks

 

[Sigfawn]

I thought Leaf was one of the most physically gifted QBs to come into the league in the last 15 years. I also saw him take a bunch of snaps. If you go back to 1990, get all the film on every stud college QB, watch it all, there is no way Leaf isn't a top 5 QB.

I have heard this comparison of Rivers to Leaf several times this off-season, and other than being starters at the same position for the same franchise, I have a hard time seeing too many correlations. Anyone who grew up in Montana and followed the WSU Cougars can tell you, Leaf was an emotional time bomb prepped to explode at any moment. He had all the physical tools to be great, but he blew himself up mentally.What are the indications that this will happen to Rivers?

Try reading the rest of my post before replying.I said all this shows is Rivers is an UNKNOWN. You can't project much in the NFL. So what basis are you using for Rivers being top 15? Mostly his college career.

Not meaning to question, but your argument stresses the unknown. I've already read that and understND. but could you detail your experience watching him, part a?Thanks

Oh Rivers looked great in college. You can't argue that. Again, what does that have to do with the NFL?

 

[rzrback77]

Not that's detail. Move Rivers way down the list. Thanks for your helpful info.

 

[Sigfawn]

Not that's detail. Move Rivers way down the list. Thanks for your helpful info.

Not that's detail?No clue what you're talking about.And you're confused. From what I've seen of him (far more then 100 snaps) he looks great. That's not what I'm basing anything on. I don't care if he looked amazing in college, or horrible. That's the point. It does not matter. There is an unknown if he hasn't played in the NFL, period. And because of that unknown, I don't have him ranked in the top 15.Does that make sense?

 

[rzrback77]

Now that's detail. Move Rivers way down the list. Thanks for your helpful info.

Not that's detail?No clue what you're talking about.

And you're confused. From what I've seen of him (far more then 100 snaps) he looks great. That's not what I'm basing anything on. I don't care if he looked amazing in college, or horrible. That's the point. It does not matter. There is an unknown if he hasn't played in the NFL, period. And because of that unknown, I don't have him ranked in the top 15.

Does that make sense?

Sorry typo on laptop. Not effective typing and worse on laptop, but in too much of a hurry. I meant to say, "now that's detail'.And it still is NOT detailed in my opinion. Did you watch him on tv, live at games, in practice, or review highlights. Thanks for helping me out with this.

 

[simey]

I watched Philip Rivers play his whole 4 years while at NCSU. Not only does he possess great athletic and leadership skills, he is also very intelligent. He can read defenses very well, and in college he would change the plays himself when he saw something he didn't like with the defense. He might have some growing pains at the start of the season getting used to the speed of the game, but I think he will adjust to it fast, and do well this year.

 

[streamkeeper]

As an NCSU grad I have seen Rivers play a great deal. I will agree with the above post. His intelligence and accuracy make him a special player. I have no doubt that his production will translate to the NFL. Most of the time my concern with new QBs is their ability to grasp the pro game. I think Rivers ability to adapt is one of his strong suits. I have him right around QB 15 in my rankings with good dynasty upside.

 

[Sigfawn]

Now that's detail. Move Rivers way down the list. Thanks for your helpful info.

Not that's detail?No clue what you're talking about.

And you're confused. From what I've seen of him (far more then 100 snaps) he looks great. That's not what I'm basing anything on. I don't care if he looked amazing in college, or horrible. That's the point. It does not matter. There is an unknown if he hasn't played in the NFL, period. And because of that unknown, I don't have him ranked in the top 15.

Does that make sense?

Sorry typo on laptop. Not effective typing and worse on laptop, but in too much of a hurry. I meant to say, "now that's detail'.And it still is NOT detailed in my opinion. Did you watch him on tv, live at games, in practice, or review highlights. Thanks for helping me out with this.

The OP was 100 snaps. I've seen him play in 10-12 games, which include his bowl games. Again, none of that matters. I don't care if I would have been his QB coach at NC State. Even if I think he's the best QB to come out of college in the last 15 years, I wouldn't put him in the top 15.Since you're arguing for him in the top 15, lets hear why. You doubt how much I've seen him, as your only argument he should be at op 15 QB. Funny how 95% of FBG staff members also don't think he's a top 15 QB. So it seems you should be the one backing it up.

 

[rzrback77]

Now that's detail. Move Rivers way down the list. Thanks for your helpful info.

Not that's detail?No clue what you're talking about.

And you're confused. From what I've seen of him (far more then 100 snaps) he looks great. That's not what I'm basing anything on. I don't care if he looked amazing in college, or horrible. That's the point. It does not matter. There is an unknown if he hasn't played in the NFL, period. And because of that unknown, I don't have him ranked in the top 15.

Does that make sense?

Sorry typo on laptop. Not effective typing and worse on laptop, but in too much of a hurry. I meant to say, "now that's detail'.And it still is NOT detailed in my opinion. Did you watch him on tv, live at games, in practice, or review highlights. Thanks for helping me out with this.

The OP was 100 snaps. I've seen him play in 10-12 games, which include his bowl games. Again, none of that matters. I don't care if I would have been his QB coach at NC State. Even if I think he's the best QB to come out of college in the last 15 years, I wouldn't put him in the top 15.Since you're arguing for him in the top 15, lets hear why. You doubt how much I've seen him, as your only argument he should be at op 15 QB. Funny how 95% of FBG staff members also don't think he's a top 15 QB. So it seems you should be the one backing it up.

I have not seen him play. I have been following MTs updates and am very intrigued about Rivers' possibilities to provide top 15 QB from a very low ADP. I am looking for folks to provide the contrarian view and swing me over to the side of staying away. You haven't done it. That is all. The other posters in this thread were supportive of MTs premise that Rivers can surprise.I am listening here trying to be convinced to stay away. Haven't been convinced yet.

 

[Pack43]

Now that's detail. Move Rivers way down the list. Thanks for your helpful info.

Not that's detail?No clue what you're talking about.

And you're confused. From what I've seen of him (far more then 100 snaps) he looks great. That's not what I'm basing anything on. I don't care if he looked amazing in college, or horrible. That's the point. It does not matter. There is an unknown if he hasn't played in the NFL, period. And because of that unknown, I don't have him ranked in the top 15.

Does that make sense?

Sorry typo on laptop. Not effective typing and worse on laptop, but in too much of a hurry. I meant to say, "now that's detail'.And it still is NOT detailed in my opinion. Did you watch him on tv, live at games, in practice, or review highlights. Thanks for helping me out with this.

The OP was 100 snaps. I've seen him play in 10-12 games, which include his bowl games. Again, none of that matters. I don't care if I would have been his QB coach at NC State. Even if I think he's the best QB to come out of college in the last 15 years, I wouldn't put him in the top 15.Since you're arguing for him in the top 15, lets hear why. You doubt how much I've seen him, as your only argument he should be at op 15 QB. Funny how 95% of FBG staff members also don't think he's a top 15 QB. So it seems you should be the one backing it up.

So, your argument is really against ANY QB being top-15 in their 1st year of starting, and you really have no opinion specific to Rivers other than he looked great from what you've seen?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I watched Philip Rivers play his whole 4 years while at NCSU. Not only does he possess great athletic and leadership skills, he is also very intelligent. He can read defenses very well, and in college he would change the plays himself when he saw something he didn't like with the defense. He might have some growing pains at the start of the season getting used to the speed of the game, but I think he will adjust to it fast, and do well this year.

simey, pop quiz: how many times did Philip The Great beat the Terps in his career? After watching Rivers during his stay at NCSU, I agree with everything simey said. He's got all of the attributes to be very, very good. The biggest complaint I hear is that he throws sidearm. I dunno - he made every throw a QB had to make in college. I know the NFL is different, but I've seen enough out of Rivers that he's going to have to prove to me he can't make the throws at the elite level.That having been said, I don't think he'll be Top 15 for me this year - somewhere around 20-22, probably.

 

[David Yudkin]

For thos in the doom and gloom camp, read the Rivers faceoff on the main page to get my opinion.

 

[mightyeskimo]

Now that's detail. Move Rivers way down the list. Thanks for your helpful info.

Not that's detail?No clue what you're talking about.

And you're confused. From what I've seen of him (far more then 100 snaps) he looks great. That's not what I'm basing anything on. I don't care if he looked amazing in college, or horrible. That's the point. It does not matter. There is an unknown if he hasn't played in the NFL, period. And because of that unknown, I don't have him ranked in the top 15.

Does that make sense?

Sorry typo on laptop. Not effective typing and worse on laptop, but in too much of a hurry. I meant to say, "now that's detail'.And it still is NOT detailed in my opinion. Did you watch him on tv, live at games, in practice, or review highlights. Thanks for helping me out with this.

I'd like to welcome Mary Barnes to the site! Didn't know she liked the pigskin!

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

My observation: the people who've seen Philip Rivers play the most tend to be the highest on him. The people who are low on Rivers tend to be people who haven't seen him play much (if at all).Here's my question: Is there anybody here who both (a) has seen Philip Rivers take at least 100 snaps (college or pro, preseason, regular season, or practice), and (b) doesn't think he'll be a top 15 fantasy QB this year?Answer here if you meet both criteria (a) and (b).

a) I have watched all of his pro snaps, and too many to count at training camp(s) and mini camp. Haven't seen too much of his college game cept the random bowl game and youtube highlights.b) I think he'll be borderline top 15 this year. The main reason I see him not putting up bigger stats is that he won't have to for the Chargers to win games. They will run it a ton, play good defense, and ask him not to screw up. I don't anticipate him having to play from behind much so he won't have very many games where he has to throw it 40 times. Too many people are sleeping on the Bolts defense, it will be top 5 this year, that's going to be the eye opener and why they make the playoffs.

 

[T Man]

Yes, I have seen him play; and, he is impressive. He appears to be a natural leader and despite the awkward throwing motion, gets the job done. I am high on him - but for next year and after.

As for the second part, top 15 is pushing it. DOes he have the talent to do it? YES. DOes he have the talent surrounding him to do it? YES.

BUT . . he is in his first year as a starter. To expect that he will be top 15 is pushing it. With Oben still hurt, and dealing with the new position, I do not expect him to be top 15. HE very well could be given the situation, but I don't expect it this year.

Now in dynasty, I would expect that he will be top 10 next year.

 

[Crazy8s]

For thos in the doom and gloom camp, read the Rivers faceoff on the main page to get my opinion.

I don't see it.

 

[David Yudkin]

For thos in the doom and gloom camp, read the Rivers faceoff on the main page to get my opinion.

I don't see it.

I guess it didn't get posted yet . . . will research and see what's up.

 

[LHUCKS]

Nobody has seen Rivers play "a lot" .... that's the problem.

Or are "we talkin bout practice." [/iverson]

 

[redman]

I thought Leaf was one of the most physically gifted QBs to come into the league in the last 15 years. I also saw him take a bunch of snaps. If you go back to 1990, get all the film on every stud college QB, watch it all, there is no way Leaf isn't a top 5 QB.

I have heard this comparison of Rivers to Leaf several times this off-season, and other than being starters at the same position for the same franchise, I have a hard time seeing too many correlations. Anyone who grew up in Montana and followed the WSU Cougars can tell you, Leaf was an emotional time bomb prepped to explode at any moment. He had all the physical tools to be great, but he blew himself up mentally.What are the indications that this will happen to Rivers?

Try reading the rest of my post before replying.I said all this shows is Rivers is an UNKNOWN. You can't project much in the NFL. So what basis are you using for Rivers being top 15? Mostly his college career.

Every team has its draft day pathologies. Every QB looks like Ryan Leaf to Charger fans.Every QB looks like Heath Shuler to Redskins fans.Every Tackle looks like Tony Mandarich to Packers fans.And on and on. Is it just coincidence that we're talking about Ryan Leaf in this thread when his similarities with Phillip Rivers stop at both being bipeds? Relax Charger fans, Ryan Leaf was an 8-year old mistake that's just a dream now.

Nobody has seen Rivers play "a lot" .... that's the problem.

Well . . . that and he's not from the Pac-10.

 

[H.K.]

Any Phillip Rivers questions can be answered here

 

[Worm]

From what I've seen over Rivers' college career, he's at his best when he's got full control of the offense, freedom to read the D and change things at the line. I think Rivers has all the tools to end up in the 10-15 range but I don't know that the Chargers will give him that amount of control over the offense in the first year to do it. In my rankings I put him in the 15-20 range, with top 15 upside. I expect Rivers will start a string of top 15 appearances next year.

 

[redman]

From what I've seen over Rivers' college career, he's at his best when he's got full control of the offense, freedom to read the D and change things at the line. I think Rivers has all the tools to end up in the 10-15 range but I don't know that the Chargers will give him that amount of control over the offense in the first year to do it. In my rankings I put him in the 15-20 range, with top 15 upside. I expect Rivers will start a string of top 15 appearances next year.

If that's Rivers' strength, then Marty Schottenheimer is probably not a good coach for him given Marty's love of conservative play and control over everything. It's going to be interesting to watch how Rivers handles that because, given the Chargers investment in him combined with last year's disappointment, he holds Schottenheimer's job security in his hands. If Rivers decides to pull what Elway did with Reeves in Denver, Schotty's gone in a heartbeat.

 

[cstu]

I don't think 15 is too much to expect, though I do think the 15-20 range is more likely. Besides his obvious talent - enough for AJ to let Brees go - he has a great surrounding cast. His job this year will consist mainly of handing off to LT, throwing dumpoffs to LT and getting the ball to Gates. Not many QB's have that luxury and he should benefit from it enough to keep him in the top 20.

 

[Jason Wood]

My observation: the people who've seen Philip Rivers play the most tend to be the highest on him. The people who are low on Rivers tend to be people who haven't seen him play much (if at all).Here's my question: Is there anybody here who both (a) has seen Philip Rivers take at least 100 snaps (college or pro, preseason, regular season, or practice), and (b) doesn't think he'll be a top 15 fantasy QB this year?Answer here if you meet both criteria (a) and (b).

Frankly considering he was a 4-year starter at NC State, I can't imagine many people on this board haven't seen him take 100 snaps. But I certainly have and also am firmly in the camp that he won't be a top-15 fantasy QB this year.

 

[Tau837]

Many here know that I'm driving the Philip Rivers bandwagon, so it should be no surprise that I watched his whole N.C. State career and project him around top 15. For perspective, note that last season QB15 was Steve McNair, with these statistics:

292/476 for 3161 passing yards, 16 TDs, 11 interceptions, and 32/139/1 rushing - total of 231 fantasy points

Given Rivers' likelihood of starting all 16 games (incredible durability shown in college, no quality backups), that is less than 15 fantasy points per game. Rather than speculate about his likely rank, I'll just say that I expect him to score at least 240 fantasy points, which is 15 per game for 16 games.

 

[LHUCKS]

Many here know that I'm driving the Philip Rivers bandwagon, so it should be no surprise that I watched his whole N.C. State career and project him around top 15. For perspective, note that last season QB15 was Steve McNair, with these statistics:292/476 for 3161 passing yards, 16 TDs, 11 interceptions, and 32/139/1 rushing - total of 231 fantasy pointsGiven Rivers' likelihood of starting all 16 games (incredible durability shown in college, no quality backups), that is less than 15 fantasy points per game. Rather than speculate about his likely rank, I'll just say that I expect him to score at least 240 fantasy points, which is 15 per game for 16 games.

So you are basing your projections off of what you've seen from him in college 2 1/2 years ago...just verifying here.

My observation: the people who've seen Philip Rivers play the most tend to be the highest on him. The people who are low on Rivers tend to be people who haven't seen him play much (if at all).Here's my question: Is there anybody here who both (a) has seen Philip Rivers take at least 100 snaps (college or pro, preseason, regular season, or practice), and (b) doesn't think he'll be a top 15 fantasy QB this year?Answer here if you meet both criteria (a) and (b).

Frankly considering he was a 4-year starter at NC State, I can't imagine many people on this board haven't seen him take 100 snaps. But I certainly have and also am firmly in the camp that he won't be a top-15 fantasy QB this year.

Why all of a sudden do college snaps count so much more. Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Dave Klingler, Timmy Change,k Any Florida State QB...blah blah blah

 

[redman]

My observation: the people who've seen Philip Rivers play the most tend to be the highest on him. The people who are low on Rivers tend to be people who haven't seen him play much (if at all).Here's my question: Is there anybody here who both (a) has seen Philip Rivers take at least 100 snaps (college or pro, preseason, regular season, or practice), and (b) doesn't think he'll be a top 15 fantasy QB this year?Answer here if you meet both criteria (a) and (b).

Frankly considering he was a 4-year starter at NC State, I can't imagine many people on this board haven't seen him take 100 snaps. But I certainly have and also am firmly in the camp that he won't be a top-15 fantasy QB this year.

Why all of a sudden do college snaps count so much more. Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Dave Klingler, Timmy Change,k Any Florida State QB...blah blah blah

Gee, maybe the fact that he's actually sat for a couple of years and wasn't rushed into the starting lineup counts for something. I'd also go so far as to say that Rivers' 2006 Chargers are better than Couch's 1999 Browns, Leaf's 1998 Chargers, and Klingler's 1992 Bengals, wouldn't you? (Chang doesn't belong on this list as he's a late-round flier at QB.)

 

[Tau837]

Many here know that I'm driving the Philip Rivers bandwagon, so it should be no surprise that I watched his whole N.C. State career and project him around top 15. For perspective, note that last season QB15 was Steve McNair, with these statistics:292/476 for 3161 passing yards, 16 TDs, 11 interceptions, and 32/139/1 rushing - total of 231 fantasy pointsGiven Rivers' likelihood of starting all 16 games (incredible durability shown in college, no quality backups), that is less than 15 fantasy points per game. Rather than speculate about his likely rank, I'll just say that I expect him to score at least 240 fantasy points, which is 15 per game for 16 games.

So you are basing your projections off of what you've seen from him in college 2 1/2 years ago...just verifying here.

I have documented this in other threads, but since you asked I'm basing it on the following:1. His college performance on the field.2. What I know about him as a person--no off field trouble, no attitude problems, good leader, intelligent, driven.3. He sat and learned for two years.4. As a first year starter he enters a situation better than most first year starter situations.5. He has one of the best supporting casts in the NFL in LT, Gates, McCardell, Parker, and a very good defense.6. So far there has been nothing but positive news about his performance this offseason.7. His teammates and coaches have praised him, as have others like Norm Chow.If you want to dismiss all that, go ahead. You're the one who will be missing the value play.

 

[LHUCKS]

If you want to dismiss all that, go ahead. You're the one who will be missing the value play.

 

[John Mamula]

For thos in the doom and gloom camp, read the Rivers faceoff on the main page to get my opinion.

I don't see it.

I guess it didn't get posted yet . . . will research and see what's up.

can't you just post it here?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

For thos in the doom and gloom camp, read the Rivers faceoff on the main page to get my opinion.

I don't see it.

I guess it didn't get posted yet . . . will research and see what's up.

can't you just post it here?

It's subscriber content. The Rivers face-off and spotlight should both be posted soon, I think.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Well, doing very well in college certainly doesn't mean you're going to succeed in the pros, there are plenty of guys we know that didn't. However, it's sort of a prerequisite to do well in the NFL though as you're not going to stink it up in college and then be a great pro. So, he's at least got a shot, just no gaurantees.

I don't know if he's going to be top 15 but one thing sticks in my mind about the situation. San Diego felt confident enough to keep him and not Brees and not both. If you're assuming that San Diego has some competent football minds in the organization, you'd have to assume that they think this guy is going to be able to play since they already had Brees. If this guy is an absolute bust, it would be mind boggling to look back on that team when they had Drew Brees and didn't find a way to keep him. With this logic, I'm willing to gamble on Rivers a bit over the next couple of seasons.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I thought Leaf was one of the most physically gifted QBs to come into the league in the last 15 years. I also saw him take a bunch of snaps. If you go back to 1990, get all the film on every stud college QB, watch it all, there is no way Leaf isn't a top 5 QB.

What does this have to do with Rivers? He's an unknown. Despite the film, the measurables, the talent around him. It's still an unknown. If you could project - with ANY accuracy - to the nfl, you wouldn't have Couch taken 1st overall. Or Harrington 3rd overall. Even well paid experts, whose job it is to know this stuff, get it wrong - all the time.

Thanks for the anwser, Sigfawn. For those of you making Leaf/Harrison/etc comparisons, you might find this article from FootballOutsiders interesting. It points out that, while it may seem difficult to predict whether a college QB will succeed at the NFL level, there's actually one combination of metrics that's been a remarkably successful predictor in the past: college starts and college completion percentage. Leaf and Harrison and the other busts fared poorly by that combination, and Roethlisberger, for example, did quite well. Pro Football Forecast 2006 will evidently give more details, but apparently the correlation with NFL success over the past ten years has been strong.

No quarterback who started 35+ games and completed 60% of his passes and was drafted in the first two rounds has been a failure. Rivers started 51 games and completed 67% of his passes. As the article states, "According to this projection system, Philip Rivers will emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the league over the next couple of years."

I don't know how much stock to put into that. Maybe none. It's not the reason I'm high on Rivers, anyway. I'm high on him for the reasons stated in the spotlight, which should appear on the site shortly. The short version is just that Rivers is in a really great situation. QBs in offenses that score a lot of points are always good fantasy options, and the Chargers were top five in the league in points scored in each of the past two seasons. Other first-year starters taking over in successful offenses in the recent past have all done well right away.

 

[simey]

simey, pop quiz: how many times did Philip The Great beat the Terps in his career?

turtle turd!

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

simey, pop quiz: how many times did Philip The Great beat the Terps in his career?

Merriman was commenting on this the other day.

 

[redman]

I thought Leaf was one of the most physically gifted QBs to come into the league in the last 15 years. I also saw him take a bunch of snaps. If you go back to 1990, get all the film on every stud college QB, watch it all, there is no way Leaf isn't a top 5 QB.

What does this have to do with Rivers? He's an unknown. Despite the film, the measurables, the talent around him. It's still an unknown. If you could project - with ANY accuracy - to the nfl, you wouldn't have Couch taken 1st overall. Or Harrington 3rd overall. Even well paid experts, whose job it is to know this stuff, get it wrong - all the time.

Thanks for the anwser, Sigfawn. For those of you making Leaf/Harrison/etc comparisons, you might find this article from FootballOutsiders interesting. It points out that, while it may seem difficult to predict whether a college QB will succeed at the NFL level, there's actually one combination of metrics that's been a remarkably successful predictor in the past: college starts and college completion percentage. Leaf and Harrison and the other busts fared poorly by that combination, and Roethlisberger, for example, did quite well. Pro Football Forecast 2006 will evidently give more details, but apparently the correlation with NFL success over the past ten years has been strong.

No quarterback who started 35+ games and completed 60% of his passes and was drafted in the first two rounds has been a failure. Rivers started 51 games and completed 67% of his passes. As the article states, "According to this projection system, Philip Rivers will emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the league over the next couple of years."

I don't know how much stock to put into that. Maybe none. It's not the reason I'm high on Rivers, anyway. I'm high on him for the reasons stated in the spotlight, which should appear on the site shortly. The short version is just that Rivers is in a really great situation. QBs in offenses that score a lot of points are always good fantasy options, and the Chargers were top five in the league in points scored in each of the past two seasons. Other first-year starters taking over in successful offenses in the recent past have all done well right away.

#17 Jason Campbell | QB   Roster: Full Name: Jason CampbellBorn: December 31, 1981Birth Place: Laurel, MSHeight: 6-5Weight: 228 lbs. Age: 23Pos: QBClass: Senior  RAT 115.7 | YDS 2,700 | TD 20Profile Stats Game Log Stat Overview Passing YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT 2002 94 149 1215 63.1 8.15 54 11 5 14 149.23 2003 181 293 2267 61.8 7.74 68 10 8 25 132.57 2004 188 270 2700 69.6 10.00 87 20 7 13 172.89

 

[tommyGunZ]

Many here know that I'm driving co-piloting the Philip Rivers bandwagon

Fixed for accuracy. This bus is half mine.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Many here know that I'm driving co-piloting the Philip Rivers bandwagon

Fixed for accuracy. This bus is half mine.

Uh oh.

 

[redman]

Many here know that I'm driving co-piloting the Philip Rivers bandwagon

Fixed for accuracy. This bus is half mine.

Just how much room is on that :11: anyway?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The Rivers face-off and spotlight should both be posted soon, I think.

I just noticed that the Spotlight had already been posted.

 

[BassNBrew]

Many here know that I'm driving co-piloting the Philip Rivers bandwagon

Fixed for accuracy. This bus is half mine.

Just booked the Saints for the Super Bowl on this breaking news.

 

[BassNBrew]

Sorry to interupt the NCS lovefest, but how many ACC titles for Rivers?

 

[Worm]

The Rivers face-off and spotlight should both be posted soon, I think.

I just noticed that the Spotlight had already been posted.

Not sure I agree with this:

Poor mobility; may struggle to buy time in the pocket

Rivers is no Mike Vick, but he's no Drew Bledsoe either. In college he always had a great "sense" of the pocket. He knows when to take a step forward to avoid the rush and he's VERY good at getting balls off under pressure.

 

[Worm]

Sorry to interupt the NCS lovefest, but how many ACC titles for Rivers?

 

[BassNBrew]

Sorry to interupt the NCS lovefest, but how many ACC titles for Rivers?

Would that be a donut or the number of wins against the Broncos this year?