Picking in the 5th spot (1 Viewer)

[briantf27]

I find myself drafting in the 5th spot next weekend in my annual redraft league. Scoring is normal yardage+TDs but with QB passing TDs also worth 6 points. -2 for INT, fumbles.

12 teams, starters: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DT

My projections give me the following top 5 players based on VBD ordering (using starter and a quarter) ;-)

1. Shawn Alexander

2. Larry Johnson

3. Ladainian Tomlinson

4. Peyton Manning!!!

5. Tiki Barberino

This is the highest I've seen Peyton anywhere. Granted, I do think the Colts will be throwing ALOT this year and Manning will put the team back on his shoulders for better or for worse. My projections for Payton are fairly conservative (I think) as well:

4200yd, 34 TD, 16 INT

Yet he's still at #4 overall according to VBD. I HATE drafting QBs in round 1. But in this case I think I have to. VBD tells me he is 37 points more valuable than Tiki. My projections for Tiki are very Tiki-like also:

1400 ruyd, 8 rutd, 550 reyd, 3 retd - almost 2000 total yards and 11 TDs

It gets weirder....

6. Marvin Harrison

7. Steve Smith

I think it highlights what I consider to be a weird year for running backs. So many what ifs. So many unproven commodities. Strange.

Comments????

 

[Spartans Rule]

Peyton.

 

[delusional]

Go with your gut.

I don't put too much on the draft programs because every league has owners that draft a certain way.

How many teams?

What are your starters? 2rb 3wr? 2rb 2wr 1te?

 

[briantf27]

Peyton.

Was that a spelling correction or a suggestion?

 

[briantf27]

Go with your gut. I don't put too much on the draft programs because every league has owners that draft a certain way. How many teams? What are your starters? 2rb 3wr? 2rb 2wr 1te?

1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DT12 teams

 

[Spartans Rule]

Peyton.

Was that a spelling correction or a suggestion?

Spelling. I'd have to know how many teams in your league before I suggest.

 

[briantf27]

Peyton.

Was that a spelling correction or a suggestion?

Spelling. I'd have to know how many teams in your league before I suggest.

12 teams, starting lineup posted above.

 

[Leviathan]

In redraft leagues, I'll always go RB, RB no matter who's on the board. I've learned my lesson dearly by not following this strategy in the past.

 

[Da Guru]

VBD told me to take Gonzo late third in a 14 team league last year, my gut told me A. Gates..I took Gates. The rest is history.

 

[briantf27]

In redraft leagues, I'll always go RB, RB no matter who's on the board. I've learned my lesson dearly by not following this strategy in the past.

The last time I took a QB in round 1 in this league it was Steve Young in the season he took a nose dive. I've been gun shy ever since, and still am. But, man, the numbers heavily favor Manning here. 34 TDs should be a no brainer.

 

[delusional]

In a similiar league minus 1 WR.

Its hard to help cause the guy in the 5th spot in my league isnt really up to date on fantasy ball.

He went

Barber

Palmer

Foster

Wayne

lol.

I'd go RB QB WR

1.05 Jackson/Barber

2.08 Manning

3.05 Harrison/Wayne

I would look for that combo. If Manning is there for your 2nd round, take him because Harrison or Wayne should be there in your 3rd.

Then go RB RB WR WR TE

 

[briantf27]

VBD told me to take Gonzo late third in a 14 team league last year, my gut told me A. Gates..I took Gates. The rest is history.

Well why did you have Gonzo projected ahead of Gates on your cheatsheet? They're both tight ends!!!!

 

[briantf27]

1.05 Jackson/Barber2.08 Manning3.05 Harrison/Wayne I would look for that combo. If Manning is there for your 2nd round, take him because Harrison or Wayne should be there in your 3rd. Then go RB RB WR WR TE

I know my league, and there's not a change Manning outlasts the first round.

 

[thejag]

The key is knowing the tendencies of the other owners in the league. Do they go RB heavy? Where does the 1st QB usually go? Many times you can grab the best RB then Manning on the way back.

 

[Da Guru]

VBD told me to take Gonzo late third in a 14 team league last year, my gut told me A. Gates..I took Gates. The rest is history.

Well why did you have Gonzo projected ahead of Gates on your cheatsheet? They're both tight ends!!!!

I am sorry.. it was the Draft Dominator:

 

[Spartans Rule]

Peyton.

Was that a spelling correction or a suggestion?

Spelling. I'd have to know how many teams in your league before I suggest.

12 teams, starting lineup posted above.

I guess I would lean towards Peyton. Depends on the quality of other owners in your league and what RBs you think you can get on the turn, because you're really pigeonholing yourself for backs in rounds 2 and 3.I had 2nd pick in my draft today with 12 teams and similar rules, but I had been 5th and taken Manning, I would have been able to get 2 out of 3 of Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor or Reggie Bush. I could live with that, and I really only have those guys projected 30-40 points behind a back I could get at 5, with Peyton at least that many points ahead of the field at QB.

 

[briantf27]

I am sorry.. it was the Draft Dominator:

I see. In any event, I do my projections myself and use an excel spreadsheet to order the players based on VBD. Strangely enough, last year, coming off his HUGE year Manning was #9 or #10 on my cheatsheet, and this season he's much higher with lesser numbers projected!!

 

[Cringe]

Wrong forum?

 

[Spartans Rule]

Wrong forum?

Forget it, he's rolling.

 

[briantf27]

I guess I would lean towards Peyton. Depends on the quality of other owners in your league and what RBs you think you can get on the turn, because you're really pigeonholing yourself for backs in rounds 2 and 3.I had 2nd pick in my draft today with 12 teams and similar rules, but I had been 5th and taken Manning, I would have been able to get 2 out of 3 of Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor or Reggie Bush. I could live with that, and I really only have those guys projected 30-40 points behind a back I could get at 5, with Peyton at least that many points ahead of the field at QB.

Nice input. Although, there's no fantasy workhorse in that RB trio you mention.... *sigh* RBs do have question marks all around this year. And WRs are somewhat depleted too. It feels like a difficult draft year to me.

 

[briantf27]

Wrong forum?

Oops... my bad.