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Player Spotlight: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Aaron Rodgers Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
  • FBG Projections
The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
I’m finding it tough to believe that close to 72 hours into the PS for Rodgers being made available, that no one has made a single post in it. Usually that means that the players production has gotten so consistent that people don’t find much use to discuss any potential variances. And quite frankly, I think he’s the #1 or #2 QB in FF. And even though you could argue that Rodgers had a bit of an off-year (for him)…there was nothing that occurred in 2012 to suggest he’s not capable of putting up mind-boggling QB numbers in 2013…numbers that would equal his best year. Yet his ADP is close to a round and a half lower than it was last year where he finished in FFC’s ADP rankings as the 2nd overall player selected.

Fact of the matter is that I don’t think there is anyone who feels Rodgers is less capable now than he was last year, even though his production did dip in 2012 from his ridiculous 2011. But if we’re being honest, I think any rational owner expected some pullback from that epic season. I think the consensus reason why we are seeing QB’s drop in terms of ADP is the perceived value at the position. It could be the deepest QB draft class we’ve ever seen in FF. Or is it?

Let’s look at how the Top 12 drafted QB’s fell in 2012

1 - 1.02; Aaron Rodgers

2 - 1.05; Tom Brady

3 - 1.07; Drew Brees

4 - 1.12; Matthew Stafford

5 - 2.04; Cam Newton

6 - 3.10; Matt Ryan

7 - 4.08; Michael Vick

8 - 5.02; Eli Manning

9 - 5.05; Peyton Manning

10 - 6.03; Tony Romo

11 - 7.01; Philip Rivers

12 - 7.09; Jay Cutler

Here is where they stand today.

1 - 2.07; Aaron Rodgers

2 - 3.01; Drew Brees

3 - 3.10; Peyton Manning

4 - 4.11; Cam Newton

5 - 5.04; Tom Brady

6 - 5.08; Matt Ryan

7 - 6.05; Matthew Stafford

8 - 6.09; Colin Kaepernick

9 - 7.02; Robert Griffin

10 - 7.05; Russell Wilson

11 - 7.07; Andrew Luck

12 - 8.01; Tony Romo

If you look at the 2012 Top 12, you might think that it looks significantly weaker than the 2013 Top 12. But we have to rewind our thinking to make sure we’re thinking in terms of 2012 perception of certain players and not 2013 perception of those same players.

Philip Rivers – Did his INT’s spike in 2011? Yes…but he was still coming off a 4624 yard passing season with a near 8 YPA average. Losing Vincent Jackson certainly didn’t help matters but in 2010, Rivers put up an unbelievable year without Jackson for the majority of that season. It was reasonable to expect a return to form.

Jay Cutler – His 2011 season was cut short by injury, but his projected totals for that season would have been 3710/21/11. Not eye-popping, but he was being re-united with Brandon Marshall and for the first time during his Bear career, would have a legitimate #1 target to throw to.

Now, as it applies to 2013 rankings, mine would have Kaepernick and Wilson in the 11/12 slots, but what I’m trying to gauge is why QB’s this draft season are being valued at such a lower degree than they were in 2012 and what I think it’s coming down to is a combination of uncertainty and upside in the 2013 batch against the 2012 batch. Owners are seeing the upside in guys like RGIII, Wilson, Luck, Kaepernick…but are struggling to project that upside with confidence. While all burst on the scene extremely impressively, the track record of each QB is thin which is why that group is all bunched in Round 6-7. If all of those 2nd year starting QB’s were being drafted on their upside potential…they’d be 2nd-3rd round picks. Look at Cam. Has he been any more impressive than Kaepernick thus far in his career? But he’s going close to two full rounds higher.

So my thinking is that whereas a lot of people have been pointing to the perceived depth of this QB class, I think that’s a misnomer. It’s the perceived upside. The difference being is that the bottom of the QB1 2013 QB class is short on bankability but long on explosive growth. In 2012, we had a much better idea of who those QB’s were.

Which brings me back to Rodgers. He’s a sure thing. The only thing that can derail him is injury and yet because of the ever-gambling nature of FF owners trying to outsmart the draft, the top tier QB’s are drifting down the overall ADP rankings and guys like CJ?K, MJD, Ridley and even T-Rich are all going ahead of not only Rodgers, but Brees as well. The thought process being that you can potentially get 2nd/3rd round value at QB going late. Don’t get suckered in, there IS alot of uncertainly in that QB8-QB12 range and inconsistent week-to-week performance at the QB1 spot has been known to submarine otherwise solid FF campaigns. Rodgers is a 1st rounder…mid-late to be sure, but if the draft comes to you in Round 1 and you are not absolutely sold on who you are about to pick…simply say ‘Rodgers’.

Prediction: 353 Completions 521 Attempts, 4358 Passing Yards 38 TD’s 7 INT’s; 54 Rushes 254 Rushing Yards, 3 TD’s.

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Rodgers proved he was human and needs help around him, just like any other player in the league. He had very little in the run department and he was under more pressure with less to work with at WR for parts of the season. I don't feel that Rodgers is going to explode this year, but will be very good.

4250 yards , 34 tds

235 yards rushing, 4tds

Now, as it applies to 2013 rankings, mine would have Kaepernick and Wilson in the 11/12 slots, but what Im trying to gauge is why QBs this draft season are being valued at such a lower degree than they were in 2012 and what I think its coming down to is a combination of uncertainty and upside in the 2013 batch against the 2012 batch.
My theory is that a lot of people got caught with their pants down last year by drafting QBs early and realized there was nothing left in the RB department by round 4. There's a huge run on RBs early this year which is helping to cheapen the price on even the elite QBs. That said, I think Rodgers and Brees are a steal at their current ADPs.
I agree and disagree. I agree that rodgers is a STEAL this year and disagree about your stamement of nothing left in the rb dept by round 4 and people getting caught with their pants down. The first 4 rds of rbs last year was a crapshoot at best. Go look at the adp of the first 4 rds of rbs. I would have been happy to go rodgers then julio/green/marshall.

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