Player Spotlight: LaDainian Tomlinson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: LaDainian Tomlinson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Banger]

This one should be interesting with a lot of different predictions...LT is washed up, It's Sproles time, LT is due for a bounce back....I've followed him and SD very closely his entire career and my take is that LT is still the man in SD. Sproles was franchised as an insurance policy and should get about the work that he did last year. Despite LT's "awful" year last year while playing on a bum toe he still had 1500 yards and 12 tds good for the 7th best RB. I'd pencil in a slightly reduced role, although I've read that they may run him more this year, but there will be no RBBC in SD and he'll still be the back with 320+ touches. I think the 400 touch days are over but I don't think 350 or so is out of the question.

I think my estimates are being a little conservative but I'm positive there will be many that will come in much lower. I think Sproles may take a bite on the reception side (I've got LT -7 from last year) but LT's carries may be higher than I'm projecting (I've projected -17). I hope I'm drafting in the middle of the round/back half of the 1st and somehow he falls to me.

275 carries 1155 yards 12 tds and 45 receptions 360 yards 1 tds. This still would have put him about 5th last year.

 

[mggoilers]

Lots of question marks at RB, and LT has proven production and shown the ability to play dinged up.

Go through the RB's they all have there issues, whether it be one year wonders, injury risk, bad situation, whatever.

I just bought back into LT, and am looking forward to a great 2009

 

[Traders2001]

Lots of question marks at RB, and LT has proven production and shown the ability to play dinged up.Go through the RB's they all have there issues, whether it be one year wonders, injury risk, bad situation, whatever.I just bought back into LT, and am looking forward to a great 2009

Same thing here i gave Michael Bush and the 6 th pick in this year rookie draft for LT and the 10th pick in this year rookie draft.I think 20 total TD's is nt out pf the question.

 

[Darker Knight]

290/1325/14 60/540/3....Not sure whats up with people on this board but LT's demise has been greatly exaggerated

 

[CalBear]

Ah, Tomlinson. One of the best RBs of all time, a sure Hall of Famer, 30 years old, coming off the worst year of his career. What can we expect for 2009? Some are predicting an Eddie George style, slow, plodding descent into irrelevancy. The end of Tomlinson as a top back. Me, I don't see it. When you look at Tomlinson's prospects at age 30, you have to compare him not to Eddie George, but to guys like Walter Payton or Emmitt Smith--the kinds of backs who Tomlinson compares most closely to in talent. Eddie George on his best day couldn't carry Tomlinson's jock, so there's no reason to expect that the end of Tomlinson's career will look like the end of George's.

Here's how Payton and Smith did at age 30:

Payton: 2052 total yards, 11 TD--both improvements on his age 29 totals, 2028/8

Smith: 1516 total yards, 13 TD (1507/15 at 29)

Most people would probably put Tomlinson's talent level somewhere between those two--if so, it seems that LT's body should be capable of producing great fantasy numbers at age 30.

The situation in San Diego is mostly conducive to big fantasy scoring; a good passing offense, good line, and questionable defense, with a run-minded offensive coach. The only question is the presence of Sproles; personally, I don't view Sproles as any more than a change of pace back, and I don't think San Diego would have restructured LT's contract if they thought any differently. Playing hurt, Tomlinson still had 344 touches to Sproles' 90; back healthy, it's hard to see Sproles getting much more than 100 touches, or Tomlinson getting much less than 350.

I'm not going to give Tomlinson his 2006/2007 level of play, but he has kept his production up while fighting through injuries his entire career, so I think we can still expect good production; I'll project him at a little below his third-best seasons. I'm on the bandwagon.

My projections: 300/1320 (4.4 ypc), 60 receptions/500, 18 total TD. Good enough to compete for RB#1.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

San Diego has gone from 461 to 440 to 392 carries last season...along the way they went form 14 down to 11 down to 8...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the more they run the better they do. Norv took over a couple years ago, but I still think he is committed to running the ball.

If you project them to win 11 games which most people do then a return to say 440-450 carries, especially with 2 highly talented backs should spark more touches and carries to go around. i do like Sproles to get about 10 carries or 150-160 for the season.

450-150=300-25 carries that end up other places for whatever reason and I see about 275 carries for LT...288 would be 18 a game and I like that number a little better.

288-1,200-12TDs and at least 40 catches for another 350 yds and 2 more TDs...

All together we have about 325 touches for 1,500-1,600 yds and 12-15 TDs if we are keeping round numbers. What does that project him at? Has to be top5 numbers, right? And you can get him in the middle of the 1st round so LT for once in his career might actually be value.

 

[mggoilers]

It's funny how a few months changes things, in March he was left for dead in SD.

I'd love to see him return to form.

His schedule is soft like pillow.

 

[noneother]

It just seems that SD will be using sproles somewhat this year..they want to keep LT healthy,

my thought is a SLOW first 8 weeks, depending on playoff position, LT gets active in the second half.. in time to be my RB#1, going into the FF playoffs

280/1050 (3.75 ypc), 48 receptions/375, 12 total TD.

 

[Sweet Love]

While I do not think LT is "done", I don't think the team will ride him like they did in the past. SD must be thinking how nice it would be to have a fresh and healthy LT for the playoffs (which they should make barring a disaster based on their division. I do like him to more of a Payton/Smith/Martin like finish for his career as he was never a plodder and they seem to be the ones that lose it when they hit that 29-30 age. Look at what Dunn has done compared to his career numbers past 30...these guys that find ways not to be hammered, just last longer.

I am down on his fantasy numbers based on a couple of things. One is Sproles. I know he is a backup, but SD is not going to let another potential "heir apparent" go because he was not used more on game day. They have 09 to see whether Sproles is a guy they want to keep (sure, they could franchise him again, but he could sit if he is not happy with that). I also think you have to take into account the development of Rivers. As they rely on him more, the rushing opportunities will fall. He put up great numbers last year, and I have no reason to think that will not continue (or at least plateau in the upper 20s for TD passes). Sproles has good hands (better than Turner), so he will take opportunities from LT in the passing game, which was not really the case for him until last year (Sproles and Turner combined for 14 receptions in 07 compared to 29 to just Sproles in 08).

I see 40 receptions for 350 yards and 1TD and 250 carries for 1000 yards and 8 TDs. Good numbers for a RB2, but I think he quietly falls out of the top 10 range (not very far though).

 

[CalBear]

I also think you have to take into account the development of Rivers. As they rely on him more, the rushing opportunities will fall.

In 2008, San Diego was #20 in the league in rush attempts--you see that going down, with Tomlinson and Sproles on the team? It was already down 60 attempts from 2007, 100 attempts from 2006.

 

[TS Garp]

I've written about this in other threads, but I'll say it again: I wouldn't read too much into Turner saying that LT will get more touches than last season. The Chargers have one goal: get to the Super Bowl and win it, and they know that their window of opportunity to make that happen with the current regime is closing fast. They also know that their chances of making that happen are significantly better with a healthy Tomlinson in the playoffs. The image of LT sitting on the sidelines in crucial games the last two seasons isn't something that Turner or AJ have forgotten, and I think you'll see them do whatever they can to keep him fresh in order to make that happen. They have a great back-up RB in Sproles, who has shown himself to be more than capable of filling in (and who was obviously important enough to the team that they franchised him), and I think you'll see the Chargers get him a lot of touches.

That's all to say that I'm not buying into LT getting 300+ carries again. However, I do like him to have a very good season. He'll certainly be the guy when the ball is anywhere near the goal line and I have a hard time seeing him with less than 12 rushing td's, barring injury. While his ceiling may not be as high as others (in my opinion), I think LT has a much higher floor than many of the other RB's who will go in the first round, which is something that I find very appealing.

My prediction:

265 carries, 1,113 yards, 4.2 YPC, 12 td's, 55 receptions, 418 yards, 7.6 YPC, 2 td's, 1 passing td

 

[David Yudkin]

Number of RB that were 30 or older that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 8

Number of RB that were 30 or older and had 2500 carries that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 2 (Martin and Payton)

I'd be very surprised if Tomlinson discovered the fountain of youth. Despite what the team is saying, I don't believe that they franchised Sproules to have him watch from the sideline.

At this point I would be concerned that he could continue to get nagging injuries that impede his production and ability to get the workload he once got.

275 carries, 1070 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD

45 receptions, 360 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

15 passing yards, 1 passing TD

 

[noneother]

Number of RB that were 30 or older that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 8Number of RB that were 30 or older and had 2500 carries that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 2 (Martin and Payton)I'd be very surprised if Tomlinson discovered the fountain of youth. Despite what the team is saying, I don't believe that they franchised Sproules to have him watch from the sideline.At this point I would be concerned that he could continue to get nagging injuries that impede his production and ability to get the workload he once got.275 carries, 1070 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD45 receptions, 360 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD15 passing yards, 1 passing TD

David, we're pretty close to each other... I guess the question i have now relates to game distribution. I am thinking on a PER GAME basis (there was a thread on this) that Tomlinson's performance / utilization nearly doubles in the second half of the season. thoughts?

 

[David Yudkin]

Number of RB that were 30 or older that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 8Number of RB that were 30 or older and had 2500 carries that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 2 (Martin and Payton)I'd be very surprised if Tomlinson discovered the fountain of youth. Despite what the team is saying, I don't believe that they franchised Sproules to have him watch from the sideline.At this point I would be concerned that he could continue to get nagging injuries that impede his production and ability to get the workload he once got.275 carries, 1070 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD45 receptions, 360 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD15 passing yards, 1 passing TD

David, we're pretty close to each other... I guess the question i have now relates to game distribution. I am thinking on a PER GAME basis (there was a thread on this) that Tomlinson's performance / utilization nearly doubles in the second half of the season. thoughts?

Career breakdownGames 1-8: 20.6 carries, 89.0 rushing yards, 4.3 ypc, 0.95 TD, 3.8 receptions, 29.3 receiving yards, 0.09 receiving TDGames 9-16:21.3 carries, 96.3 rushing yards, 4.5 ypc, 1.03 TD , 4.2 receptions, 30.5 receiving yards, 0.14 receiving TD

 

[Biabreakable]

Number of RB that were 30 or older that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 8Number of RB that were 30 or older and had 2500 carries that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 2 (Martin and Payton)I'd be very surprised if Tomlinson discovered the fountain of youth. Despite what the team is saying, I don't believe that they franchised Sproules to have him watch from the sideline.At this point I would be concerned that he could continue to get nagging injuries that impede his production and ability to get the workload he once got.275 carries, 1070 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD45 receptions, 360 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD15 passing yards, 1 passing TD

David, we're pretty close to each other... I guess the question i have now relates to game distribution. I am thinking on a PER GAME basis (there was a thread on this) that Tomlinson's performance / utilization nearly doubles in the second half of the season. thoughts?

Career breakdownGames 1-8: 20.6 carries, 89.0 rushing yards, 4.3 ypc, 0.95 TD, 3.8 receptions, 29.3 receiving yards, 0.09 receiving TDGames 9-16:21.3 carries, 96.3 rushing yards, 4.5 ypc, 1.03 TD , 4.2 receptions, 30.5 receiving yards, 0.14 receiving TD

If LT only gets 275 carries. That is 16.17/game. 4 less than his average. 68 less total carries than his average. Or the same as him missing 3 games.What are the projections for Sproles and Johnson then?

 

[Da Guru]

I do not see LT as a top NFL RB anymore, but I also do not see him as a bum either. The Chargers play in a weak division and should be able to score quite a few points.

Watching LT when he was healthy last season it seemed like he did not have the "burst" as in his prime. That being said the farther LT drops in your draft the more value he will have.

I am looking in the area of 1200 rushing, 400 receiving and 11-13 TDs..not vintage LT but still a very good RB option.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Spending a top 5 pick on LT seems like a recipe for disaster to me. A lot of people are focusing on the fact that he was still a top 5 fantasy back last year despite the turf toe, despite clearly not having the burst and juice in his cuts that he had in the past, and overlooking the fact that he looked like an RB whose best years are behind him.

When you step back and look at the larger trend, it's clear that LT's body is becoming less and less able to hold up under the punishment an NFL feature back absorbs. Forget about the turf toe, how about the fact that he couldn't play in the most important game of the Chargers season - for the second straight year! To me that says that his body is betraying him.

Let's also remember that the Chargers basically said, take a pay cut in 2010 and 2011, or good luck on your next team. What does that tell you about AJ Smith and co's internal evaluation of where LT is at his career? They were ready to move on without him...

The one thing you have going for you if you take LT is that he does seem stubborn about playing through injuries that clearly limit his effectiveness. There is a question as to whether the Chargers will do what they did in 04/05/08, and let him still be the feature back if he gets dinged, leaving the very talented second option to mop up or get change of pace touches. They have Sproles + Johnson's fresh legs, and as the offseason game of contract chicken shows, LT doesn't have the sway he used to have in the organization.

I'm willing to admit that LT could stay completely healthy, and we could see the return of some of the burst and agility that was absent last season. A top 3 finish is not out of the question. Still, when you look back at seeing LT on the bench in the playoffs, when you reflect on how he still didn't look like LT of old in the second half of the season when he wasn't on the injury report, when you remember how dynamic Sproles was, and how much money they have tied up in him this year - is anyone going to be surprised if this is the year that the running game doesn't consist of almost solely LT anymore?

The wheels are going to come off soon. It might not be this year, but all signs point to it happening soon. Why tie up a high first round pick on a player clearly on the downside of his career slope instead of a player on the upslope?

270/1040/7 40/300/1

 

[Biabreakable]

Are these projections floors?

 

[David Yudkin]

Number of RB that were 30 or older that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 8Number of RB that were 30 or older and had 2500 carries that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 2 (Martin and Payton)I'd be very surprised if Tomlinson discovered the fountain of youth. Despite what the team is saying, I don't believe that they franchised Sproules to have him watch from the sideline.At this point I would be concerned that he could continue to get nagging injuries that impede his production and ability to get the workload he once got.275 carries, 1070 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD45 receptions, 360 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD15 passing yards, 1 passing TD

David, we're pretty close to each other... I guess the question i have now relates to game distribution. I am thinking on a PER GAME basis (there was a thread on this) that Tomlinson's performance / utilization nearly doubles in the second half of the season. thoughts?

Career breakdownGames 1-8: 20.6 carries, 89.0 rushing yards, 4.3 ypc, 0.95 TD, 3.8 receptions, 29.3 receiving yards, 0.09 receiving TDGames 9-16:21.3 carries, 96.3 rushing yards, 4.5 ypc, 1.03 TD , 4.2 receptions, 30.5 receiving yards, 0.14 receiving TD

If LT only gets 275 carries. That is 16.17/game. 4 less than his average. 68 less total carries than his average. Or the same as him missing 3 games.What are the projections for Sproles and Johnson then?

15 games at 18 carries. That's basically one carry a game less than last year. I didn't even look at Dodds' projections and he has LT for 275 carries and 42 receptions, so he and I appear to be on the same page.As for the "other carries," I see SD in the 400 carry range for RB, so give 100 of them to Sproules. IMO, SD stays more of a passing team and not one that was getting their RBs 460 carries a year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I've written about this in other threads, but I'll say it again: I wouldn't read too much into Turner saying that LT will get more touches than last season. The Chargers have one goal: get to the Super Bowl and win it, and they know that their window of opportunity to make that happen with the current regime is closing fast. They also know that their chances of making that happen are significantly better with a healthy Tomlinson in the playoffs. The image of LT sitting on the sidelines in crucial games the last two seasons isn't something that Turner or AJ have forgotten, and I think you'll see them do whatever they can to keep him fresh in order to make that happen. They have a great back-up RB in Sproles, who has shown himself to be more than capable of filling in (and who was obviously important enough to the team that they franchised him), and I think you'll see the Chargers get him a lot of touches.That's all to say that I'm not buying into LT getting 300+ carries again. However, I do like him to have a very good season. He'll certainly be the guy when the ball is anywhere near the goal line and I have a hard time seeing him with less than 12 rushing td's, barring injury. While his ceiling may not be as high as others (in my opinion), I think LT has a much higher floor than many of the other RB's who will go in the first round, which is something that I find very appealing. My prediction:265 carries, 1,113 yards, 4.2 YPC, 12 td's, 55 receptions, 418 yards, 7.6 YPC, 2 td's, 1 passing td

Hey TS,I like the logic here but I have one question. You are posting 55 catches, and LT ha been the modle of consistency at receptions. The one area where I see Sproles cutting into his numbers would be receptions. I projected 40 and that was tough to put dwon as he hasn't had less than 50 in a long long time. I guess we'll wait for Sproles spotlight thread but can you share what you think Sproles is going to amass?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Number of RB that were 30 or older that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 8Number of RB that were 30 or older and had 2500 carries that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 2 (Martin and Payton)I'd be very surprised if Tomlinson discovered the fountain of youth. Despite what the team is saying, I don't believe that they franchised Sproules to have him watch from the sideline.At this point I would be concerned that he could continue to get nagging injuries that impede his production and ability to get the workload he once got.275 carries, 1070 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD45 receptions, 360 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD15 passing yards, 1 passing TD

Very strong post David.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

I do not see LT as a top NFL RB anymore, but I also do not see him as a bum either. The Chargers play in a weak division and should be able to score quite a few points.

Watching LT when he was healthy last season it seemed like he did not have the "burst" as in his prime. That being said the farther LT drops in your draft the more value he will have.

I am looking in the area of 1200 rushing, 400 receiving and 11-13 TDs..not vintage LT but still a very good RB option.

Best posting yet. Nobody in here has mentioned how BAD the offensive line was last year. LT barely had room to run last year. He had no holes to run through, and when they were there, LT looked slower than years past. The part that worries me the most about LT this year is that the Chargers did ZERO to address their real need which in my opinion is their O-Line. I honestly don't see him posting better numbers than last year. I expect to see less carries and more problems with the O-Line and LT trying to find holes.

Projections: 1250 yards, 300 receiving, 10-12 TDs

Maybe LATE first round material, but that's at best.

 

[Sweet Love]

I do not see LT as a top NFL RB anymore, but I also do not see him as a bum either. The Chargers play in a weak division and should be able to score quite a few points.

Watching LT when he was healthy last season it seemed like he did not have the "burst" as in his prime. That being said the farther LT drops in your draft the more value he will have.

I am looking in the area of 1200 rushing, 400 receiving and 11-13 TDs..not vintage LT but still a very good RB option.

Best posting yet. Nobody in here has mentioned how BAD the offensive line was last year. LT barely had room to run last year. He had no holes to run through, and when they were there, LT looked slower than years past. The part that worries me the most about LT this year is that the Chargers did ZERO to address their real need which in my opinion is their O-Line. I honestly don't see him posting better numbers than last year. I expect to see less carries and more problems with the O-Line and LT trying to find holes.

Projections: 1250 yards, 300 receiving, 10-12 TDs

Maybe LATE first round material, but that's at best.

I am not sure I am getting your point. You mention the line which was poor last year (and a good point to bring up), they do nothing to address it, yet you feel he will improve on his numbers with Sproles most likely getting more PT?

 

[CalBear]

Number of RB that were 30 or older that have scored 250 fantasy points in a season: 8

Number of those eight RBs who Tomlinson is clearly better than: 6. (Barber, Martin, Riggins, Garner, Dillon, Holmes). (The other two are both Payton).

 

[laughinboy_2000]

I do not see LT as a top NFL RB anymore, but I also do not see him as a bum either. The Chargers play in a weak division and should be able to score quite a few points.

Watching LT when he was healthy last season it seemed like he did not have the "burst" as in his prime. That being said the farther LT drops in your draft the more value he will have.

I am looking in the area of 1200 rushing, 400 receiving and 11-13 TDs..not vintage LT but still a very good RB option.

Best posting yet. Nobody in here has mentioned how BAD the offensive line was last year. LT barely had room to run last year. He had no holes to run through, and when they were there, LT looked slower than years past. The part that worries me the most about LT this year is that the Chargers did ZERO to address their real need which in my opinion is their O-Line. I honestly don't see him posting better numbers than last year. I expect to see less carries and more problems with the O-Line and LT trying to find holes.

Projections: 1250 yards, 300 receiving, 10-12 TDs

Maybe LATE first round material, but that's at best.

I am not sure I am getting your point. You mention the line which was poor last year (and a good point to bring up), they do nothing to address it, yet you feel he will improve on his numbers with Sproles most likely getting more PT?

These are almost the exact type of numbers he had last year, and this is also best case scenario. As I stated with my last statement within the post. Those numbers I posted are attainable for LT. The question is whether he can do it. I'm say no.

 

[Sweet Love]

I do not see LT as a top NFL RB anymore, but I also do not see him as a bum either. The Chargers play in a weak division and should be able to score quite a few points.

Watching LT when he was healthy last season it seemed like he did not have the "burst" as in his prime. That being said the farther LT drops in your draft the more value he will have.

I am looking in the area of 1200 rushing, 400 receiving and 11-13 TDs..not vintage LT but still a very good RB option.

Best posting yet. Nobody in here has mentioned how BAD the offensive line was last year. LT barely had room to run last year. He had no holes to run through, and when they were there, LT looked slower than years past. The part that worries me the most about LT this year is that the Chargers did ZERO to address their real need which in my opinion is their O-Line. I honestly don't see him posting better numbers than last year. I expect to see less carries and more problems with the O-Line and LT trying to find holes.

Projections: 1250 yards, 300 receiving, 10-12 TDs

Maybe LATE first round material, but that's at best.

I am not sure I am getting your point. You mention the line which was poor last year (and a good point to bring up), they do nothing to address it, yet you feel he will improve on his numbers with Sproles most likely getting more PT?

These are almost the exact type of numbers he had last year, and this is also best case scenario. As I stated with my last statement within the post. Those numbers I posted are attainable for LT. The question is whether he can do it. I'm say no.

Gotcha.

 

[the branded hand]

I do not see LT as a top NFL RB anymore, but I also do not see him as a bum either. The Chargers play in a weak division and should be able to score quite a few points.

Watching LT when he was healthy last season it seemed like he did not have the "burst" as in his prime. That being said the farther LT drops in your draft the more value he will have.

I am looking in the area of 1200 rushing, 400 receiving and 11-13 TDs..not vintage LT but still a very good RB option.

:whoosh: Best posting yet. Nobody in here has mentioned how BAD the offensive line was last year. LT barely had room to run last year. He had no holes to run through, and when they were there, LT looked slower than years past. The part that worries me the most about LT this year is that the Chargers did ZERO to address their real need which in my opinion is their O-Line. I honestly don't see him posting better numbers than last year. I expect to see less carries and more problems with the O-Line and LT trying to find holes.

Projections: 1250 yards, 300 receiving, 10-12 TDs

Maybe LATE first round material, but that's at best.

Agreed...Wasn't it his first year without Lorenzo Neal? I think that losing a monster of a FB like Neal would have done him in as well.

 

[Banger]

I do not see LT as a top NFL RB anymore, but I also do not see him as a bum either. The Chargers play in a weak division and should be able to score quite a few points.

Watching LT when he was healthy last season it seemed like he did not have the "burst" as in his prime. That being said the farther LT drops in your draft the more value he will have.

I am looking in the area of 1200 rushing, 400 receiving and 11-13 TDs..not vintage LT but still a very good RB option.

Best posting yet. Nobody in here has mentioned how BAD the offensive line was last year. LT barely had room to run last year. He had no holes to run through, and when they were there, LT looked slower than years past. The part that worries me the most about LT this year is that the Chargers did ZERO to address their real need which in my opinion is their O-Line. I honestly don't see him posting better numbers than last year. I expect to see less carries and more problems with the O-Line and LT trying to find holes.

Projections: 1250 yards, 300 receiving, 10-12 TDs

Maybe LATE first round material, but that's at best.

Agreed...Wasn't it his first year without Lorenzo Neal? I think that losing a monster of a FB like Neal would have done him in as well.

It wouldn't have come close to making up for the line play. If McNeil can play like he did his rookie year he'll be great. His neck injury is a concern.

 

[David Yudkin]

For those that don't realize it or fully comphrehend it, Tomlinson has been a workhorse over his career. He's had a ton of touches. Here are ALL the year end rankings for any RB that has suited up on Opening Day and entered the season with 3,000+ career touches . . .

Emmitt: 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 22

Payton: 4, 5, 28

Martin: 4, 29

Bettis: 26, 18, 36

Allen: 24, 15, 23

Faulk: 30, 53

Sanders: 10

Edge: 52

Thomas: 40, 88, 69

Dickerson: 33, 104

Harris: 104

Watters: 60

LT has 3,157 touches to date. Only 3 guys made it into the Top 5.

I'm not dissing on Tomlinson, but one has to wonder how long he can continue to take the pounding that an NFL running back is asked to endure.

 

[Banger]

For those that don't realize it or fully comphrehend it, Tomlinson has been a workhorse over his career. He's had a ton of touches. Here are ALL the year end rankings for any RB that has suited up on Opening Day and entered the season with 3,000+ career touches . . .Emmitt: 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 22Payton: 4, 5, 28Martin: 4, 29Bettis: 26, 18, 36Allen: 24, 15, 23Faulk: 30, 53Sanders: 10Edge: 52Thomas: 40, 88, 69Dickerson: 33, 104Harris: 104Watters: 60LT has 3,157 touches to date. Only 3 guys made it into the Top 5. I'm not dissing on Tomlinson, but one has to wonder how long he can continue to take the pounding that an NFL running back is asked to endure.

It's certainly not going to be a lot longer but he's got another year or two of good productivity and his situation is very solid (very good offense, not a real strong RB pushing behind him, weak division). He's had nagging injuries the past few years but not chronic ones like Faulk and others on the list had at this time in their careers. His numbers and career compares favorably to Payton and I think his shelf life will be similar.

 

[David Yudkin]

For those that don't realize it or fully comphrehend it, Tomlinson has been a workhorse over his career. He's had a ton of touches. Here are ALL the year end rankings for any RB that has suited up on Opening Day and entered the season with 3,000+ career touches . . .Emmitt: 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 22Payton: 4, 5, 28Martin: 4, 29Bettis: 26, 18, 36Allen: 24, 15, 23Faulk: 30, 53Sanders: 10Edge: 52Thomas: 40, 88, 69Dickerson: 33, 104Harris: 104Watters: 60LT has 3,157 touches to date. Only 3 guys made it into the Top 5. I'm not dissing on Tomlinson, but one has to wonder how long he can continue to take the pounding that an NFL running back is asked to endure.

It's certainly not going to be a lot longer but he's got another year or two of good productivity and his situation is very solid. He's had nagging injuries the past few years but not chronic ones like Faulk and others on the list had at this time in their careers. His numbers and career compares favorably to Payton and I think his shelf life will be similar.

Another thing in comparing the situations of Emmitt, Payton, Martin and Sanders (basically the more successful ones of this group) . . .The 99 Cowboys had Chris Warren as the only other option behind Emmitt, and Warren himself was in his 30s with over 1500 carries.The 85-86 Bears secondary option was FB Matt Suhey and they didn't really explore anyone else at RB. Neal Anderson emerged a few years down the road, but it was basically all Payton, all the time at tailback.The 04 Jets had Lamont Jordan but Edwards for whatever reason did not elect to get him more than 5 carries a game.The 98 Lions had no other RB with even 20 carries on the season.Looking at the 09 Bolts, they just forked over a ton of money to keep Sproules. And perhaps more importantly, LT has been banged up at the end of the year the past two years and either struggled in the playoffs or had to sit . . . neither of which helped the Chargers chances any.One would think that they will try to save him some for a plyoff run, as having him wacthing from the sideline or hobbled won't improve their chances of winning any.If they didn't want to use him at all, why give Sproules $6.6 million this year?

 

[CalBear]

For those that don't realize it or fully comphrehend it, Tomlinson has been a workhorse over his career. He's had a ton of touches. Here are ALL the year end rankings for any RB that has suited up on Opening Day and entered the season with 3,000+ career touches . . .Emmitt: 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 22Payton: 4, 5, 28Martin: 4, 29Bettis: 26, 18, 36Allen: 24, 15, 23Faulk: 30, 53Sanders: 10Edge: 52Thomas: 40, 88, 69Dickerson: 33, 104Harris: 104Watters: 60LT has 3,157 touches to date. Only 3 guys made it into the Top 5. I'm not dissing on Tomlinson, but one has to wonder how long he can continue to take the pounding that an NFL running back is asked to endure.

Again, Tomlinson is better than almost everyone on this list--and almost everyone on this list was older than Tomlinson.People have studied workload and haven't found any correlation between career workload and injury--that is, a 30-year-old back with 1500 touches is just as likely to get injured as a 30-year-old back with 3000 touches. Age is a much better predictor, and Tomlinson is still young enough to have two or three great seasons left.

 

[David Yudkin]

Again, Tomlinson is better than almost everyone on this list--and almost everyone on this list was older than Tomlinson.People have studied workload and haven't found any correlation between career workload and injury--that is, a 30-year-old back with 1500 touches is just as likely to get injured as a 30-year-old back with 3000 touches. Age is a much better predictor, and Tomlinson is still young enough to have two or three great seasons left.

Injuries or no injuries, the fact of the matter is that as backs get older they see the ball less and lose their effectiveness. Let's start over . . .In his 6 straight Top 5 seasons, LT averaged 404 touches in a season. There's only been 15 seasons where a RB 30 or older hit 350 and 29 where a RB hit 300 touches.What sort of workload do you think LT can sustain moving forward?

 

[Banger]

For those that don't realize it or fully comphrehend it, Tomlinson has been a workhorse over his career. He's had a ton of touches. Here are ALL the year end rankings for any RB that has suited up on Opening Day and entered the season with 3,000+ career touches . . .Emmitt: 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 22Payton: 4, 5, 28Martin: 4, 29Bettis: 26, 18, 36Allen: 24, 15, 23Faulk: 30, 53Sanders: 10Edge: 52Thomas: 40, 88, 69Dickerson: 33, 104Harris: 104Watters: 60LT has 3,157 touches to date. Only 3 guys made it into the Top 5. I'm not dissing on Tomlinson, but one has to wonder how long he can continue to take the pounding that an NFL running back is asked to endure.

It's certainly not going to be a lot longer but he's got another year or two of good productivity and his situation is very solid. He's had nagging injuries the past few years but not chronic ones like Faulk and others on the list had at this time in their careers. His numbers and career compares favorably to Payton and I think his shelf life will be similar.

Another thing in comparing the situations of Emmitt, Payton, Martin and Sanders (basically the more successful ones of this group) . . .The 99 Cowboys had Chris Warren as the only other option behind Emmitt, and Warren himself was in his 30s with over 1500 carries.The 85-86 Bears secondary option was FB Matt Suhey and they didn't really explore anyone else at RB. Neal Anderson emerged a few years down the road, but it was basically all Payton, all the time at tailback.The 04 Jets had Lamont Jordan but Edwards for whatever reason did not elect to get him more than 5 carries a game.The 98 Lions had no other RB with even 20 carries on the season.Looking at the 09 Bolts, they just forked over a ton of money to keep Sproules. And perhaps more importantly, LT has been banged up at the end of the year the past two years and either struggled in the playoffs or had to sit . . . neither of which helped the Chargers chances any.One would think that they will try to save him some for a plyoff run, as having him wacthing from the sideline or hobbled won't improve their chances of winning any.If they didn't want to use him at all, why give Sproules $6.6 million this year?

Three reasons.... 1) is because Sproles is a very good return man and 2) he's a good backup and 3rd down back and 3) if they let him walk they had Jacob Hester and Michael Bennett on the roster which isn't great insurance in the event of an LT injury. They franchised Sproles, they did not sign him long term...if they had I may have a different view of the situation. As you said this team wants to make a run but in order to do that they need to make the playoffs first. There's no use in saving LT for the playoffs if they don't make it and they'll need to use him to make the playoffs so the argument is somewhat circular. My carry and reception totals surprisingly match yours exactly, 275 carries and 45 receptions, so it both looks like we're saying the same thing at the end of the day....he'll still be the main back but Sproles may be sprinkled in a little more than the backup was in the past....

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Shaun Alexander was supposed to have one more great year. Marshall Faulk was supposed to have one more great year. Priest Holmes was supposed to yada yada yada. I could go on forever with this.

There's not some clock that says oh this guy can play exactly one or two more seasons at a high level. When that door closes it closes quickly and hard and then that's that. I'm not saying that it'll happen this year for LT but it certainly could. He wasn't great last season. For some reason I'm supposed to expect him to just be better? I'll let somebody else take that risk. Drafting LT with a first-round pick? No way.

You were a great player and you won me championships but sorry it looks like you can't play for me this year.

 

[CalBear]

Again, Tomlinson is better than almost everyone on this list--and almost everyone on this list was older than Tomlinson.People have studied workload and haven't found any correlation between career workload and injury--that is, a 30-year-old back with 1500 touches is just as likely to get injured as a 30-year-old back with 3000 touches. Age is a much better predictor, and Tomlinson is still young enough to have two or three great seasons left.

Injuries or no injuries, the fact of the matter is that as backs get older they see the ball less and lose their effectiveness. Let's start over . . .In his 6 straight Top 5 seasons, LT averaged 404 touches in a season. There's only been 15 seasons where a RB 30 or older hit 350 and 29 where a RB hit 300 touches.What sort of workload do you think LT can sustain moving forward?

Given that Tomlinson is #2 in touches through age 29 (behind only Barry Sanders), it seems reasonable to assume that he's capable of sustaining more workload than the typical back. [He's done it.] I think that Tomlinson is at least as capable of handling 350 touches as Tony Dorsett (who did it twice after 30), Ricky Watters, Ottis Anderson, Curtis Martin, or Corey Dillon. Why would you expect that Martin and Dillon would be more capable of doing it than Tomlinson? I have Tomlinson projected for 350 touches this year, and if he comes through without serious injury, I probably will be projecting him for 350 touches next year as well.

 

[a_troll00]

Shaun Alexander was supposed to have one more great year. Marshall Faulk was supposed to have one more great year. Priest Holmes was supposed to yada yada yada. I could go on forever with this. There's not some clock that says oh this guy can play exactly one or two more seasons at a high level. When that door closes it closes quickly and hard and then that's that. I'm not saying that it'll happen this year for LT but it certainly could. He wasn't great last season. For some reason I'm supposed to expect him to just be better? I'll let somebody else take that risk. Drafting LT with a first-round pick? No way.You were a great player and you won me championships but sorry it looks like you can't play for me this year.

There is far too much irrational exuberance for LT in this thread. We saw last season that wear and tear was catching up to him, and it's not going to get better this season.

 

[Banger]

Shaun Alexander was supposed to have one more great year. Marshall Faulk was supposed to have one more great year. Priest Holmes was supposed to yada yada yada. I could go on forever with this. There's not some clock that says oh this guy can play exactly one or two more seasons at a high level. When that door closes it closes quickly and hard and then that's that. I'm not saying that it'll happen this year for LT but it certainly could. He wasn't great last season. For some reason I'm supposed to expect him to just be better? I'll let somebody else take that risk. Drafting LT with a first-round pick? No way.You were a great player and you won me championships but sorry it looks like you can't play for me this year.

and his non-great season was 7th best in the league. You wouldn't spend a mid-1st pick for mid-1st production? Are you predicting injury or do you think that Sproles is going to take over? how many TD's will SD score on the ground? Will the Chargers give those TD's to Sproles in lieu of possibly the best goal line scorer in the history of the NFL?

 

[David Yudkin]

Again, Tomlinson is better than almost everyone on this list--and almost everyone on this list was older than Tomlinson.People have studied workload and haven't found any correlation between career workload and injury--that is, a 30-year-old back with 1500 touches is just as likely to get injured as a 30-year-old back with 3000 touches. Age is a much better predictor, and Tomlinson is still young enough to have two or three great seasons left.

Injuries or no injuries, the fact of the matter is that as backs get older they see the ball less and lose their effectiveness. Let's start over . . .In his 6 straight Top 5 seasons, LT averaged 404 touches in a season. There's only been 15 seasons where a RB 30 or older hit 350 and 29 where a RB hit 300 touches.What sort of workload do you think LT can sustain moving forward?

Given that Tomlinson is #2 in touches through age 29 (behind only Barry Sanders), it seems reasonable to assume that he's capable of sustaining more workload than the typical back. [He's done it.] I think that Tomlinson is at least as capable of handling 350 touches as Tony Dorsett (who did it twice after 30), Ricky Watters, Ottis Anderson, Curtis Martin, or Corey Dillon. Why would you expect that Martin and Dillon would be more capable of doing it than Tomlinson? I have Tomlinson projected for 350 touches this year, and if he comes through without serious injury, I probably will be projecting him for 350 touches next year as well.

I projected him at 320 touches, you have him at 350, so we are only apart by less than 10%. The question then becomes whether that drop-off in touches from his days of 400+ gets him back to the Top 5. I'd probably slot him for 290-300 touches in 2010.

 

[hostile]

I do not see LT as a top NFL RB anymore, but I also do not see him as a bum either. The Chargers play in a weak division and should be able to score quite a few points.

Watching LT when he was healthy last season it seemed like he did not have the "burst" as in his prime. That being said the farther LT drops in your draft the more value he will have.

I am looking in the area of 1200 rushing, 400 receiving and 11-13 TDs..not vintage LT but still a very good RB option.

Best posting yet. Nobody in here has mentioned how BAD the offensive line was last year. LT barely had room to run last year. He had no holes to run through, and when they were there, LT looked slower than years past. The part that worries me the most about LT this year is that the Chargers did ZERO to address their real need which in my opinion is their O-Line. I honestly don't see him posting better numbers than last year. I expect to see less carries and more problems with the O-Line and LT trying to find holes.

Projections: 1250 yards, 300 receiving, 10-12 TDs

Maybe LATE first round material, but that's at best.

I agree. The O-Line was horrid. Many games I watched, and as soon as LT was handed the ball, at least one defender was already behind the line forcing a play. However, Hardwick is healthy again, McNeill is healthy as well. Was letting Goff go addition by subtraction? I really don't think Forney is the answer, and Clary isnt exactly overly dominant, so it remains to be seen if the right side of the line can improve.

On the upside, I also saw quite a few runs from LT where he made two or three defenders look silly, then plant hard on his bad foot to try to make a cut off of it, only to stumble. His health this year will be crucial to his success, much more so than a younger back.

I also believe that the defense this year will be much improved, giving the offense more time on the field.

To think he's going to reach 2006 form is a pipe dream, but I expect with the emergence of Rivers, VJax, and Floyd in the passing game, a healthy Gates, Sproles to give LT a bit of a rest, Norv saying he's going to give LT 300+ carries this year, LT being fully back to health, Hardwick and McNeill healthy, and an improvement to a horribly underachieving defense, I don't think it's unrealistic to expect an improvement upon last year.

1300 yds/12 TDs rush, 470 yds/3 TDs rec.

 

[Banger]

Again, Tomlinson is better than almost everyone on this list--and almost everyone on this list was older than Tomlinson.People have studied workload and haven't found any correlation between career workload and injury--that is, a 30-year-old back with 1500 touches is just as likely to get injured as a 30-year-old back with 3000 touches. Age is a much better predictor, and Tomlinson is still young enough to have two or three great seasons left.

Injuries or no injuries, the fact of the matter is that as backs get older they see the ball less and lose their effectiveness. Let's start over . . .In his 6 straight Top 5 seasons, LT averaged 404 touches in a season. There's only been 15 seasons where a RB 30 or older hit 350 and 29 where a RB hit 300 touches.What sort of workload do you think LT can sustain moving forward?

Given that Tomlinson is #2 in touches through age 29 (behind only Barry Sanders), it seems reasonable to assume that he's capable of sustaining more workload than the typical back. [He's done it.] I think that Tomlinson is at least as capable of handling 350 touches as Tony Dorsett (who did it twice after 30), Ricky Watters, Ottis Anderson, Curtis Martin, or Corey Dillon. Why would you expect that Martin and Dillon would be more capable of doing it than Tomlinson? I have Tomlinson projected for 350 touches this year, and if he comes through without serious injury, I probably will be projecting him for 350 touches next year as well.

I projected him at 320 touches, you have him at 350, so we are only apart by less than 10%. The question then becomes whether that drop-off in touches from his days of 400+ gets him back to the Top 5. I'd probably slot him for 290-300 touches in 2010.

His top 5 status will largely depend on his TD totals. He will be the goal line back and over the past 7 years his TD rush totals have been 15, 17, 18, 20, 31, 18 and 12...their offense is going to be very good this year and he will be the goal line back as long as he's healthy....would I be shocked if he got 15-17 td's? Not at all. Heck, LenDale White had 15 TD's last year.... As far as next year's touches, I think we need to see what he does this year first. If it looks like it was the injury that hampered him last year and he looks similar to two years ago then maybe he'll get a touch total similar to this year...if it looks like he is slowing and wearing down this year then we may see the 290-300 you posted or possibly a lot fewer in the event the wheels really fall off this year....

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

For those that don't realize it or fully comphrehend it, Tomlinson has been a workhorse over his career. He's had a ton of touches. Here are ALL the year end rankings for any RB that has suited up on Opening Day and entered the season with 3,000+ career touches . . .Emmitt: 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 22Payton: 4, 5, 28Martin: 4, 29Bettis: 26, 18, 36Allen: 24, 15, 23Faulk: 30, 53Sanders: 10Edge: 52Thomas: 40, 88, 69Dickerson: 33, 104Harris: 104Watters: 60LT has 3,157 touches to date. Only 3 guys made it into the Top 5. I'm not dissing on Tomlinson, but one has to wonder how long he can continue to take the pounding that an NFL running back is asked to endure.

Again, Tomlinson is better than almost everyone on this list--and almost everyone on this list was older than Tomlinson.People have studied workload and haven't found any correlation between career workload and injury--that is, a 30-year-old back with 1500 touches is just as likely to get injured as a 30-year-old back with 3000 touches. Age is a much better predictor, and Tomlinson is still young enough to have two or three great seasons left.

Like you, I'm not persuaded by arguments that are based on players of X age with X mileage generally fail to exceed a certain threshold of fantasy points. I'm concerned with THIS RB and what we know about him specifically.What do we know?In the last two years, he has suffered:a torn tendon in his groin, more specifically a detachment of a tendon that connects his groin to his pubic bone turf toe, suffered in week 1, then aggravated in week 5, keeping him on the injury report until the week 9 byea torn MCL in his knee that sidelined him for most of the AFC title game and kept him out of April OTAstwo "grabs" in his hamstrings that caused him to parts of gamesI don't if it's good or bad that he didn't have the toe, groin, or knee surgically repaired. On one hand, it means that the injuries weren't deemed severe enough to require surgery, on the other hand, LT seemed to really want to avoid surgery, so maybe he had the option and chose not to - either way, one of his toes, groins, and knees isn't what it used to be.the pattern is undeniable. I don't care if you drove a Rolls-Royce, if it broke down at the end of the last two long road trips you took it on (and had to be serviced along the way), I'd say you shouldn't take it on any more long road trips, and if you do, it's very likely to break down again, and probably even earlier on the road trip this time.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Shaun Alexander was supposed to have one more great year. Marshall Faulk was supposed to have one more great year. Priest Holmes was supposed to yada yada yada. I could go on forever with this. There's not some clock that says oh this guy can play exactly one or two more seasons at a high level. When that door closes it closes quickly and hard and then that's that. I'm not saying that it'll happen this year for LT but it certainly could. He wasn't great last season. For some reason I'm supposed to expect him to just be better? I'll let somebody else take that risk. Drafting LT with a first-round pick? No way.You were a great player and you won me championships but sorry it looks like you can't play for me this year.

and his non-great season was 7th best in the league. You wouldn't spend a mid-1st pick for mid-1st production? Are you predicting injury or do you think that Sproles is going to take over? how many TD's will SD score on the ground? Will the Chargers give those TD's to Sproles in lieu of possibly the best goal line scorer in the history of the NFL?

All I know is that LT is 30 years old which in RB years may as well be 50. His body is breaking down so he probably is more likely to be injured. Sproles is making top 5 RB money while LT took a pay cut to avoid getting released so I think he's not going to get all those touches that he's used to. Add all that up and you get a 1st round over the hill running back that I want no part of this season.People said all this stuff about Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander and Marshall Faulk and still wasted 1st round picks on them when they were either finished or close to it. I guess some people have to learn the hard way that when it's over it's over.

 

[Banger]

For those that don't realize it or fully comphrehend it, Tomlinson has been a workhorse over his career. He's had a ton of touches. Here are ALL the year end rankings for any RB that has suited up on Opening Day and entered the season with 3,000+ career touches . . .Emmitt: 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 22Payton: 4, 5, 28Martin: 4, 29Bettis: 26, 18, 36Allen: 24, 15, 23Faulk: 30, 53Sanders: 10Edge: 52Thomas: 40, 88, 69Dickerson: 33, 104Harris: 104Watters: 60LT has 3,157 touches to date. Only 3 guys made it into the Top 5. I'm not dissing on Tomlinson, but one has to wonder how long he can continue to take the pounding that an NFL running back is asked to endure.

Again, Tomlinson is better than almost everyone on this list--and almost everyone on this list was older than Tomlinson.People have studied workload and haven't found any correlation between career workload and injury--that is, a 30-year-old back with 1500 touches is just as likely to get injured as a 30-year-old back with 3000 touches. Age is a much better predictor, and Tomlinson is still young enough to have two or three great seasons left.

Like you, I'm not persuaded by arguments that are based on players of X age with X mileage generally fail to exceed a certain threshold of fantasy points. I'm concerned with THIS RB and what we know about him specifically.What do we know?In the last two years, he has suffered:a torn tendon in his groin, more specifically a detachment of the tendon that connects his groin to his pubic bone turf toe, suffered in week 1, then aggravated in week 5, keeping him on the injury report until the week 10 byea torn MCL in his knee that sidelined him for most of the AFC title game and kept him out of April OTAstwo "grabs" in his hamstrings that caused him to parts of gamesI don't if it's good or bad that he didn't have the groin or knee surgically repaired. On one hand, it means that the injuries weren't deemed severe enough to require surgery, on the other hand, LT seemed to really want to avoid surgery, so maybe he had the option and chose not to - either way, one of his toes, groins, and knees isn't what it used to be.the pattern is undeniable. I don't care if you drove a Rolls-Royce, if it broke down at the end of the last two long road trips you took it on (and had to be serviced along the way), I'd say you shouldn't take it on any more long road trips, and if you do, it's very likely to break down again, and probably even earlier on the road trip this time.

The same can be said for Steven Jackson, Westbrook, R. Brown, McFadden, Peterson, Portis, Jacobs, Barber, Gore, etc. or any other RB that has had an injury and/or gotten surgery. All LT proved over the past two years is that he's human and can get injuries that other backs get routinely. I just think everyone was spoiled over the Favre like iron man status at a position where it's nearly impossible to play 16 games a year, year after year.

 

[Banger]

Shaun Alexander was supposed to have one more great year. Marshall Faulk was supposed to have one more great year. Priest Holmes was supposed to yada yada yada. I could go on forever with this. There's not some clock that says oh this guy can play exactly one or two more seasons at a high level. When that door closes it closes quickly and hard and then that's that. I'm not saying that it'll happen this year for LT but it certainly could. He wasn't great last season. For some reason I'm supposed to expect him to just be better? I'll let somebody else take that risk. Drafting LT with a first-round pick? No way.You were a great player and you won me championships but sorry it looks like you can't play for me this year.

and his non-great season was 7th best in the league. You wouldn't spend a mid-1st pick for mid-1st production? Are you predicting injury or do you think that Sproles is going to take over? how many TD's will SD score on the ground? Will the Chargers give those TD's to Sproles in lieu of possibly the best goal line scorer in the history of the NFL?

All I know is that LT is 30 years old which in RB years may as well be 50. His body is breaking down so he probably is more likely to be injured. Sproles is making top 5 RB money while LT took a pay cut to avoid getting released so I think he's not going to get all those touches that he's used to. Add all that up and you get a 1st round over the hill running back that I want no part of this season.People said all this stuff about Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander and Marshall Faulk and still wasted 1st round picks on them when they were either finished or close to it. I guess some people have to learn the hard way that when it's over it's over.

I don't take random guesses though when I'm projecting/drafting players. I read a ton of info to see how players are health wise, how the team plans on using them, how their lines are, how their offenses will be, strength of schedule/division, who is behind the player pushing for time, etc. I don't predict injuries. You can go back probably 3-4 years and look for the annual LT is done, too many carries/touches and is due to breakdown, due for injury, Turner is going to take over, Sproles is going to take over threads. I know I've posted in them all. Can he get injured? Sure. Is he more likely than probably any back in the game to play through the injury if he can? yes as was evidenced last year and despite being banged up all year he finished #7. LT did restructure his deal but he's still making more than Sproles this year despite the franchise tag.

 

[David Yudkin]

Like you, I'm not persuaded by arguments that are based on players of X age with X mileage generally fail to exceed a certain threshold of fantasy points. I'm concerned with THIS RB and what we know about him specifically.What do we know?In the last two years, he has suffered:a torn tendon in his groin, more specifically a detachment of a tendon that connects his groin to his pubic bone turf toe, suffered in week 1, then aggravated in week 5, keeping him on the injury report until the week 9 byea torn MCL in his knee that sidelined him for most of the AFC title game and kept him out of April OTAstwo "grabs" in his hamstrings that caused him to parts of gamesI don't if it's good or bad that he didn't have the toe, groin, or knee surgically repaired. On one hand, it means that the injuries weren't deemed severe enough to require surgery, on the other hand, LT seemed to really want to avoid surgery, so maybe he had the option and chose not to - either way, one of his toes, groins, and knees isn't what it used to be.the pattern is undeniable. I don't care if you drove a Rolls-Royce, if it broke down at the end of the last two long road trips you took it on (and had to be serviced along the way), I'd say you shouldn't take it on any more long road trips, and if you do, it's very likely to break down again, and probably even earlier on the road trip this time.

Here's where I tend to think differently than you. If I owned a Rolly-Royce and knew that at 100,000 miles 98% of all Rolls-Royces would need a new transmission and planned on going on a road trip much past 100,000 miles I'd be inclined to consider an alternate ride whether the car had issues before then or not. That's why actuaries have jobs and there are car insurance and life insurance rates. They base their rates on research and probability of statistics.I agree that not everything goes as expected, and last year was the perfect example. Tom Brady had never missed a game but ended up on IR in the first half of week one. Chad Pennington, Donovan McNabb, and Kurt Warner all played in every game, a feat they had rarely been able to accomplish very often in recent seasons.Bottom line for me with LT is that he's reached a point where it would be expected that he could drop off some. Whether he hits the wall at 30 or 32 IMO does not change the fact that there are now some red flags attached to his name. So for me at least, it's time to start worrying about what ROI you get from drafting Tomlinson when in the past you could just pick him and worry about who your late second round pick would be.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Like you, I'm not persuaded by arguments that are based on players of X age with X mileage generally fail to exceed a certain threshold of fantasy points. I'm concerned with THIS RB and what we know about him specifically.What do we know?In the last two years, he has suffered:a torn tendon in his groin, more specifically a detachment of a tendon that connects his groin to his pubic bone turf toe, suffered in week 1, then aggravated in week 5, keeping him on the injury report until the week 9 byea torn MCL in his knee that sidelined him for most of the AFC title game and kept him out of April OTAstwo "grabs" in his hamstrings that caused him to parts of gamesI don't if it's good or bad that he didn't have the toe, groin, or knee surgically repaired. On one hand, it means that the injuries weren't deemed severe enough to require surgery, on the other hand, LT seemed to really want to avoid surgery, so maybe he had the option and chose not to - either way, one of his toes, groins, and knees isn't what it used to be.the pattern is undeniable. I don't care if you drove a Rolls-Royce, if it broke down at the end of the last two long road trips you took it on (and had to be serviced along the way), I'd say you shouldn't take it on any more long road trips, and if you do, it's very likely to break down again, and probably even earlier on the road trip this time.

Here's where I tend to think differently than you. If I owned a Rolly-Royce and knew that at 100,000 miles 98% of all Rolls-Royces would need a new transmission and planned on going on a road trip much past 100,000 miles I'd be inclined to consider an alternate ride whether the car had issues before then or not. That's why actuaries have jobs and there are car insurance and life insurance rates. They base their rates on research and probability of statistics.

That's sound reasoning, and I can't disagree with it - I just prefer to look at these kinds of questions with the idea that determining who the exception will be is much more valuable than assuming everyone will fit the rule. For that reason, I am more interested in applying the rule to the player in the specific instance and determining whether they fit than just assuming they will conform to the outcome the rule dictates they will have - in other words, the rule is starting point of the analysis, not the endpoint.

 

[CalBear]

Here's where I tend to think differently than you. If I owned a Rolly-Royce and knew that at 100,000 miles 98% of all Rolls-Royces would need a new transmission and planned on going on a road trip much past 100,000 miles I'd be inclined to consider an alternate ride whether the car had issues before then or not. That's why actuaries have jobs and there are car insurance and life insurance rates. They base their rates on research and probability of statistics.

The problem is you have to use the right statistics. When you look at the entire population of 30-year-old RBs, you're not comparing all Rolls Royces to all other Rolls Royces--in some cases you're comparing a Rolls Royce to a Hyundai. And there are a lot more Hyundais than Rolls Royces. If you know that 98% of all cars are Hyundais, and 98% of all cars need a new transmission at 100,000 miles, does that mean your Rolls Royce will?If you look at modern (16-game) Hall of Fame RBs (or RBs who will soon be), a significant percentage of them had at least one very good season at age 30 or above. The Rolls Royces clearly take longer to break down than the Hyundais.

 

[Darker Knight]

For those that don't realize it or fully comphrehend it, Tomlinson has been a workhorse over his career. He's had a ton of touches. Here are ALL the year end rankings for any RB that has suited up on Opening Day and entered the season with 3,000+ career touches . . .Emmitt: 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 22Payton: 4, 5, 28Martin: 4, 29Bettis: 26, 18, 36Allen: 24, 15, 23Faulk: 30, 53Sanders: 10Edge: 52Thomas: 40, 88, 69Dickerson: 33, 104Harris: 104Watters: 60LT has 3,157 touches to date. Only 3 guys made it into the Top 5. I'm not dissing on Tomlinson, but one has to wonder how long he can continue to take the pounding that an NFL running back is asked to endure.

Again, Tomlinson is better than almost everyone on this list--and almost everyone on this list was older than Tomlinson.People have studied workload and haven't found any correlation between career workload and injury--that is, a 30-year-old back with 1500 touches is just as likely to get injured as a 30-year-old back with 3000 touches. Age is a much better predictor, and Tomlinson is still young enough to have two or three great seasons left.

Like you, I'm not persuaded by arguments that are based on players of X age with X mileage generally fail to exceed a certain threshold of fantasy points. I'm concerned with THIS RB and what we know about him specifically.What do we know?In the last two years, he has suffered:a torn tendon in his groin, more specifically a detachment of a tendon that connects his groin to his pubic bone turf toe, suffered in week 1, then aggravated in week 5, keeping him on the injury report until the week 9 byea torn MCL in his knee that sidelined him for most of the AFC title game and kept him out of April OTAstwo "grabs" in his hamstrings that caused him to parts of gamesI don't if it's good or bad that he didn't have the toe, groin, or knee surgically repaired. On one hand, it means that the injuries weren't deemed severe enough to require surgery, on the other hand, LT seemed to really want to avoid surgery, so maybe he had the option and chose not to - either way, one of his toes, groins, and knees isn't what it used to be.the pattern is undeniable. I don't care if you drove a Rolls-Royce, if it broke down at the end of the last two long road trips you took it on (and had to be serviced along the way), I'd say you shouldn't take it on any more long road trips, and if you do, it's very likely to break down again, and probably even earlier on the road trip this time.

What do we know? That over his entire career LT has miss ONE regular season game......