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LT wants the ball and this is Norv Turner.I tried to dredge up a very thourough discussion on pizza faces use of RBs over his career. Emmit Gore and LT. But that thread has been purged I think. Anyhow Norv feeds his main RB. Especialy when that guy is LT.
I actually believe that the Chargers thought they could trade Sproles in the offseason and found out too late that there were no takers. They screwed up. You don't pay a kick returner six million dollars a year. One game against the Colts' run defense by a guy Sproles' size does not a career make, I'll take the guy who's been doing it against every defense for eight years.As to LT, it seems as if too many people are stuck in the "old ways" of predicting RB decline at age 30. This isn't the 1980s anymore. These guys take much better care of themselves and are in much better shape... and I'd have to argue that LT is at the top of that list. As to drafting LT, who would you take in front of him? Anyone other than Peterson and maybe Portis would be absolutely crazy, in my opinion. Everyone else has serious question marks for an early first round pick and you need to make that pick count. LT's floor, barring injury, is much higher than anyone else's.BusterTBronco said:
In a redraft league, these are the guys I'd select ahead of LT and feel more comfortable with:APMJDDeAngeloTurnerMossCalvinFitzgeraldAJBreesBradyForteChris JohnsonSJaxThe last 3 are awfully close for me, particularly with the risk SJax carries as well, but I'd still gamble with him personally. This isn't a definitive order just as I thought of them.
that's what happens when you hurt your big toe and you try to push off it....
This is basically what it breaks down to, sort of, but I think Tomlinson is more likely to exceed that ROI than Manning is. Unless you're taking him with a top 5 pick, he's got an excellent chance to be "worth" what you spent on him as long as he can play 14-15 games. Is anyone here REALLY stating they think LT should be drafted top 5? Not that they think he will produce as a top 5, but that he should be drafted there? If that's the case, then that's the disconnect for me. Do I think he could crack the top 5 again? Yeah. Do I think he will? Unlikely. Do I expect him to finish much lower than 7th or 8th? Gun to my head: No, not really. Would I likely have to draft him any earlier than 7th or 8th in a lot of leagues if I wanted him? Probably a no again.I'm not saying I wouldn't be holding my breath every week with him, at least early on, but I think he's got at least one more year of being a viable RB1, just not one I would pay a top 5 price tag for.
That's the crux of the biscuit right there. SOMEONE is going to take LT top five is most every league. Should you be that person? I say no.
Every league is different . . .but LT has an ADP of RB10 and 12th overall at the moment.
That may be the case right now, but 5 out of 13 staffers with overall rankings up have LT in the top 5. If over 1/3 of our staff rankings have him in the top 5, then that tells me that there'll be at least one person out of the 3-4-5 picks that will take him in most leagues.
Well then let me expand your awareness. KFFL also has him ranked as #3 right now as well. http://www.kffl.com/article.php/98074/512BusterTBronco said:
If you think RBs age like fine wine, you are mistaken.
If you think LT was stumbling in cuts last year due to age rather than due to his toe injury, you are mistaken.If you think RBs age like fine wine, you are mistaken.
I understand feeling that way totally. I absolutely wouldn't want to burn a pick on him, as of today, before pick 7-ish. Perhaps those 5 staffers with him top 5 are just wrong? :(However, and I know these are merely mocks, but in any mock I have watched/particiapted in over the past couple/three weeks at several different sites(FFCalc, etc.) he just isn't being taken that high(top 5) in probably 90-95% of them. He's ADPing right around 7-9.If he shows healthy in TC, and remains that way through the PS, I could see him sneaking back upwards in later drafts. If that's what happens, I won't be buying if I happen to be sitting inside the top 5.If I'm picking 8-10 and he falls that far, I'd have a really tough time passing on him. Playing those AFC West defenses twice each should be "good for what ails ya'."
I don't think his past injuries will affect his future playing time. I think he'll get his customary workload as long as he's healthy. He's healthy right now. We'll see how long that lasts, but I don't really see a reason to consider him injury-prone. He's struggled through nagging injuries in 2004, 2005, and 2008. He was limited in the playoffs in 2007 and 2008. Aside from that, in his eight seasons in the league, he's never missed a game due to injury.
These points, IMO, are the best arguments for LT. When you take into account the entire team picture I think there is more reason to think LT will be fine this year than not. I have him in a 2-keeper league and, after reading this, will most likely keep him again (options are LT, Portis, D Williams and Jacobs). LT got injured early in the season last year and disappointed many because of expectations and ADP (I took him #1 overall in a redraft league last year). I think you will see him going in the bottom half of the first round in most drafts. At that placement he is a good bargain and about as safe as they come. No one works harder than LT in the off-season and I think that will extend his career longer than most. As a long-time LT owner, he deserves the benefit of the doubt after his first disappointing season due to injury. If he finished #7RB last season, that's still not a bust for a first round selection.
this makes sense to me. LT is not the flavor of the week anymore. if he's healthy i can see him easily being a top 5 FF back this yr.my gut tells me his ADP will creep up to top 5 as the season nears, otherwise i'd love to have a late pick and pair him with a top WR.
LT is as good if not better than 2 of those 3 guys.
this makes perfect sense to me. There were several reasons besides age that caused him to drop, questions about his health, speed/quickness, how he and Sproles will be used and the state of the line. With respect to all of those questions they have all been favorable to LT so far. Reports out of camp are that LT is on a mission and is one of if not the most impressive players so far. He looks completely healthy and has that burst and cutting ability back. Sproles primary role is kicking/punt returns and LT is taking nearly all the 1st string snaps. The big key to the o-line, Marcus McNeill, looks like a different player after offseason neck surgery.It looks like those that drafted/traded early may have gotten some real nice value for LT but the gap is closing quickly.A couple comments from yesterday's TC:Tomlinson looked fast, had all of his explosive moves, and caught the ball well. I couldn't help but think to myself that LT looks as dangerous as ever once he gets into the open field.LT lining up in the wildcat...Philip Rivers lined up wide right. Vincent Jackson went in motion, LaDainian Tomlinson took the shotgun snap and ran through the line. So began a period of the Chargers working on the Wildcat, or the Frog, as they call it. As he did in the spring, when they first worked on the formation, Norv Turner said the period was mostly for his defense to see the Wildcat. He doesn't think his side needs it. While he likes the opportunities it creates for Tomlinson and Legedue Naanee, he doesn't like the fact that it renders Rivers all but a spectator and makes Antonio Gates a tackle. I bet they use it at least a handful of times during the season to get a first down, or somewhere inside the 30. Tomlinson did not hand off at all. He threw one pass to a wide-open Jackson. Naanee also threw to Jackson. They ran a reverse out of the formation as well.Tomlinson then makes a case for himself, saying he now feels just as spry as he did in 2006 when was named MVP. "I do, I really do," he says. "I've been thinking about some of the (recent) training camps that I've been through, and this is the first time in a while that there's not any soreness. "I'm injury-free. This is the same way I felt at camp (in '06)."
If those were LT's stats he would need to be taken as the first overall draft pick.LT's stats will look like this if he can stay healthy.295 Carries1200 Yards13 TD's40 Rec1 TDWith that being said, I am selecting him 3rd overall pick in a 12 team big $ PPR league. I plan to grab sproles if he falls to me in the 7th round!
LOL at the notion that LT could fall to the late second round, much less the third round. And at projecting these stats but saying that you wouldn't take him unless he did drop that far.
If you are hoping to get him late 2nd or mid 3rd it's safe to say he won't be on any of your teams.If you feel that those are going to be his numbers why wouldn't you draft him mid-1st?ETA...JWB beat me to it...
I don't expect him to fall out of the first round...I really don't....but I would not take him this year in the first or early second...too many other options at WR and RB then to risk it on a guy who really has had a hard time staying healthy. He just looked real slow last season. And I understand he had a bad wheel. But he has shown clear signs of breaking down unlike Westbrook who was very quick and able to cut when playing last season. LT looked like a shadow of himself...yet still finished top 10. I don't see that this season if he breaks down again.Again I would rather land him as my RB2 with his downside risk then take a shot as my RB1 with the chance he finally performs below his ADP. If that makes any sense.
Projecting those numbers you wouldn't draft LT in the late 1st, early 2nd round if he fell? When was the last time LT missed a game due to injury?
Most, if not all of what you are saying, makes little sense. Thanks for trying though.I don't expect him to fall out of the first round...I really don't....but I would not take him this year in the first or early second...too many other options at WR and RB then to risk it on a guy who really has had a hard time staying healthy. ]He just looked real slow last season. And I understand he had a bad wheel. But he has shown clear signs of breaking down unlike Westbrook who was very quick and able to cut when playing last season. LT looked like a shadow of himself...yet still finished top 10. I don't see that this season if he breaks down again.Again I would rather land him as my RB2 with his downside risk then take a shot as my RB1 with the chance he finally performs below his ADP. If that makes any sense.
On the decline or not, LT scored the same amount of points as Turner in my PPR league last year. And somehow no one blinks as eye if Turner goes in the Top 5
I guess the real fear about drafting LT is he pulls a "Alexander" and just hits the brick wall big time. It does happen that way for RB's. That is the inherent risk of drafting "high mileage" backs. So the floor to me could be as bad as:265 carries975 yards7 TD's31 receptions158 yards0 TD's And in redrafts I agree of course he will go in the first round. Again I will let someone else take him there. Too many options to take the risk that the great LT will hit the wall. I hope he doesen't. I want to see him break the rushing record...he is a legendary player.If I were in the 12th hole and he fell there....he may be worth the risk to form a sick one, two punch.So to bring my orignal projection based on 16 games of a healthy LT and now this floor. My true point is he has a chance to be really good....and really bad based on his current ADP. I think LT is a big ??? this season. Your either going to be really happy and pissed off he was your first pick. I don't think this year presents an in-between for LT.
point taken.. i get the whole age+touches RB decline theory and definitely believe LT is on the downside of his career.i guess where we disagree is in the probability of what will happen this coming season. i'm much more comfortable predicting an "inbetween" season than either a disaster or a fantastic season. i have both of those scenarios as pretty big outliers.what's the key for him hitting either of the extremes in your view? is it all the risk of injury? granted he looked slower last season, he still didn't look like he had completely lost his mojo like shaun did in 06.
x 2Grahamburn said:
honestly some of your conclusions are IMO wrong........case by case IMO as follows:David Yudkin said:
debatable. he went from 1300/9 to 1100/3. maybe not "hitting the wall" but the massive TD drop was significant.
true.
try "N/A" (although I"d bet the house he would not have)
true, although I don't think this is a discussion of an EXACT age necessarily, the point being that at ABOUT this age, even the best of RBs quickly fade.
sorry but weak excuse. he had less than the previous year's total so a resounding "yes."
going from 1250/9 to 850/2 isn't hitting the wall? yeah right!
basically he faded significantly well before 30 so I'd call this N/A.
yep in fact very good seasons
right he waited a year or 2 more to hit the wall, basically.
agree on all theseCorey Dillon350 touches/1750 yfs/13 TD at 30225 touches/800 yfs/13 TD at 31200 touches/950 yfs/13 TD at 32Did he "hit the wall" at 30? N.J. Simpson150ish touches/700 yfs/0 TD at 30175 touches/750 yfs/3 TD at 31125 touches/500 yfs/3 TDDid he "hit the wall" at 30? Yes.Warrick Dunn300 touches/1600 yfs/4 TD at 30300 touches/1300 yfs/5 TD at 31250 touches/950 yfs/2 TD at 32Did he "hit the wall" at 30? No.Ricky Watters350 touches/1600 ys/7 TD at 30Almost 350 touches/1850 yfs/9 TD at 3175 touches/400 yfs/1 TD at 32 (then injured in Week 5)Tiki Barber400 touches/almost 2400 yfs/11 TD at 30375 touches/2100 yfs/5 TD at 32 (then retired)Did he "hit the wall" at 30? No. Eddie George 325 touches/1200 yfs/5 TD at 30125 touches/500 yfs/4 TD at 31Did he "hit the wall" at 30? Pretty much yes.Ottis Anderson 30 - injured31 - Non-starter350 touches/1300 yfs/14 TD at 32Did he "hit the wall" at 30? Not really applicable.
I count about 50% who hit the wall right at/about 30 (some a bit later, some a bit sooner). I wouldn't call that a decent rate.......All that said though, I lean to drafting LT if he's there for a reasonable price.
Some of those guys (bolded) had major knee injuries well before their 3,000 carries. LT has not, so projecting him to respond the way they did isn't apples to apples.Some of those RBs were bruisers (Bettis, Harris) and LT isn't, he takes far fewer hits.
going from 1600/1700 yds to 1000 and TDs nearly halved isn't hitting the wall? yes.
