Player Spotlight: Maurice Jones-Drew (1 Viewer)

[Jayrod]

For those of you talking about MJD's ypc #'s, I think that ypc and number of carries are indirectly proportionate. In other words, the more the carries, the lower the ypc and vice versa.

I think the presence of Fred Taylor actually raises MJD's ypc value because he won't be the every down back. As a 3rd down/shortyardage/GL back, MJD has the chance to use his rare combo of speed and power to overtake a tired defense week in and week out. That's what happened last year and there is little reason to expect that the majority of that production won't return. I don't believe the TD's will be as high, but the ypc numbers have no reason to plummet below 5.0 and certainly not below 4.5 ypc.

 

[Wadsworth]

I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.

What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .

200 carries, 900 rushing yards

50 receptions, 450 receiving yards

7 total TD

And that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.

If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .

I agree with completely, except for the TDs. MJD is there most effective short yardage and he is the back that will most likely be in the game when the Jags are inside the 10. Taylor has not been effective in short yardage recently, so MJD will not be threatened there. I'd say 10 TDs would be a much more reasonable estimate.

This is another excellent point. For all of Fred Taylor's accomplishments, he's actually been pulled at times in short yardage and passing situations. Let's look at the Data Dominator for Jags' backs over the last five years:

Fred Taylor -- 43 goal line carries, 8 TDs (18.6%)

Greg Jones -- 11 goal line carries, 4 TDs (36.4%)

Stacey Mack -- 16 goal line carries, 8 TDs (50.0%)

Maurice Jones-Drew -- 10 goal line carries, 6 TDs (60.0%)

LaBrandon Toefield -- 9 goal line carries, 4 TDs (44.4%)

Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala -- 7 goal line carries, 2 TDs (28.6%)

Not only is Jones-Drew the most effective goal line rusher, Taylor has been the least effective.

In the last 5 years, 85 running backs have logged at least 10 goal line carries...

*** Maurice Jones-Drew is tied for 2nd with his 60% conversion rate

*** Fred Taylor ranks 81st with his 18.6% conversion rate

Stats can be construed anyway. 10 carries from the 9 yard line are a lot different from 10 carries inside the 2 yard line. Nobody has mentioned that Greg Jones will be back. He will vulture some of the goalline carries. Taylor will still be the starter this year and now that they know that MJD can spell him more than adequately they will do so. I look for MJD to put up numbers along Reggie's from last year. Good, but not great and definitely not worth a pick in the first round or possibly even second unless you in slot 1.01 or 1.02 for keeper purposes.

For the stats above I used carries at the 5-yard line and closer.As to Greg Jones, I will be surprised if he makes the team. That will come down to whether he can win a spot as a fullback, in my estimation. As where in Greg Jones' history did he become a dominant goal line option? Because he's big and slow?

You are way off base on Greg Jones. Pre-injury he was playing fullback at a near Pro Bowl level and performing decently as a back up RB. Del Rio called the day Greg Jones got hurt his toughest day as a head coach because he knew how hard Jones had worked and admired what a great team player he was. Greg Jones may never be the fantasy stud some people thought he'd be, but he's been an excellent NFL fullback and can play RB in a pinch. Lack of fantasy success does not mean lack of NFL success.

 

[H.K.]

Assuming that these are you honest projections Drew should have a 50% chance of outdoing these numbers and a 50% chance of coming up short.

Statistically impossible.

 

[Block]

Most of you will be disappointed with Drew this year.

I think much of his success last year was due to his relatively diminutive size and opposing teams not being ready for him. He's a good player, but I think his YPC dips under 5 and his touchdowns also decrease. I think the Jacksonville running game as a whole will have alot of trouble replicating last year's performance. I also think that Greg Jones will see significant touches, maybe close to 100 over the course of the season.

That being said, Drew should still have 1100-1200 yards total and 8 TDs or so.

 

[DenverBroncos]

MJD will definetly not get over 8 TD's.

 

[JimboJim]

When I posted my projections for MJD earlier in this thread, I put him at 1500 total yards and 10 TDs.

However, as I've gone through and put my RB rankings together, he ended up at #17.

It's true that my ranking of him doesn't correlate too well to the stats that I project for him, but this is the main problem I see with MJD, and why my rankings turned out as they did.

Unless Taylor gets hurt again or is phased out of the offense due to poor production, I see the 1500 total yards and 10 TDs as being just about the absolute ceiling for MJD.

While there is definitely risk involoved with any player, my personal opinion is that I would rather take a RB with the potential to realistically see a full workload, over a part-time player, just about 99% of the time.

Just to back up my ranking of MJD, here is who I would put ahead of him.

1 LaDainian Tomlinson

2 Steven Jackson

3 Larry Johnson

4 Shaun Alexander

5 Willie Parker

6 Travis Henry

7 Laurence Maroney

8 Frank Gore

9 Brian Westbrook

10 Cedric Benson

11 Reggie Bush

12 Joseph Addai

13 Edgerrin James

14 Willis McGahee

15 Rudi Johnson

16 Clinton Portis

17 Maurice Jones-Drew

- Yes, I know... I have Reggie Bush, another part time player, ranked higher than MJD in my projections. The reason for that is I believe Bush will see another 80-90 receptions, regardless of what he does as a runner. Overall numbers-wise, the difference between #11 and #17 isn't that large. The upside on Bush really isn't much different for me than the upside on MJD (1500 total yards, 10 TDs), I just feel because of his recieving numbers, the downside (risk) is lower.

 

[TheFanatic]

Most of you will be disappointed with Drew this year.

I think much of his success last year was due to his relatively diminutive size and opposing teams not being ready for him. He's a good player, but I think his YPC dips under 5 and his touchdowns also decrease. I think the Jacksonville running game as a whole will have alot of trouble replicating last year's performance. I also think that Greg Jones will see significant touches, maybe close to 100 over the course of the season.

That being said, Drew should still have 1100-1200 yards total and 8 TDs or so.

I think both of the bolded statements are off. If you expect MJD to have 5.6 YPC and the same amount of TD's he had last year then you will be dissapointed. Both are going to drop. Will his YPC drop to 4.0 or TD's drop 50%? No. Look for his YPC to drop down to somewhere between 4.5-5.0. But also expect his carries to go up which will offset his dip in YPC.

To expect his TD's to go down to something like 8 is just ridiculous. This prediction has to be from someone who doesn't actually watch the Jags games. Taylor pulls himself at the goal line. This was happening before they really knew what they had in MJD. MJD is going to get a ton of opportunity at the goal line and on 3rd down. If his opportunities remain high his TD's are going to remain high. I don't expect the ridiculous number he had as a rook, but I would think he would have a minimum of 12 TD's this year.

 

[Battery Chuck]

Barry Sanders, a career 5.0 yards per carry runner and arguably one of the best RBs of all time, only had 2 back-to-back seasons of over 5.0 ypc in his career. That's a ten season career, and only twice was he back to back over 5 ypc. In two seasons out of ten was his ypc 5.7 or above. In the seasons following those two 5.7 ypc seasons, we see that Sanders dropped from 5.7 to 4.8(.9 ypc) and 6.1 to 4.3 (1.8 ypc). Not only should a big drop in ypc for MJD be possible, it should be expected!Ask yourself, is MJD such a game-changing talent that he should be in a new category all by himself? Is his system, line, and surrounding talent that much better, or is it him? Compare to some of the previous generation's stars, and his contemporary peers and we see.Back-to-back 5+ ypc seasons:Sanders - twice (10 years) Faulk - twice (12 years)Tomlinson - never (6 years)---5.5 or greater ypc seasons:Sanders - twiceFaulk - onceTomlinson - never---All of these standout players were considered workhorse RBs for virtually their entire careers. And MJD is not expected to see the 300+ carries this season, so many I am not comparing apples to apples. I just find it strange that so many are so willing to give this guy a 5+ ypc average next year. My feeling, is that MJD had just an unusually good season last year in terms of yardage, and that there is a very great chance that we will see his percentages decline enough that he will be LESS productive next season on MORE touches. Because traditionally, one would think that an increase in touches would result in a decrease in effectiveness correct? I almost like to think of it as the Kevan Barlow effect. What has MJD shown to demonstrate that he is the equal of some of the greatest RBs in the game? The TDs, which I think can be considered pretty damn fluky, should be a much stronger argument for MJD than the ypc averages we are seeing in this thread. Give him 200/850/15 and I will believe it a lot more than 220/1200/8

I never said MJD would ever be mentioned in the same breath as Barry Sanders or Marshall Faulk. I just said the dude had a great rookie year in the touchdown department and there is nothing substantially changed about his offense except that teams will be looking for him. I'm sure they were looking for him after he started scored 1 or 2 TD's a week but what could defenses do? When you give the guy the rock at the 2, he's going to punch it in just about every time. I sure don't believe he'll rush for 1700 yards (I doubt he'll even get 500 if FT stays healthy) but I do think he will get 10 to 15 touchdowns as long as they can move the ball into the red zone. The dude has skills, plain and simple so I think writing off his rookie year as "fluky" is a bit short-sighted. He runs low to the ground and with his eyes up and he's not afraid of contact one bit. Kind of like what everybody thought Cedric Benson was going to bring to the table. If you ask me, I'll give you 10 Cedric Bensons to my one MJD and we'll see who has more points at the end of the season.The bottom line is that MJD makes a great second or third running back, not a premier player around which to build a team. Goal-line backs are usually only considered for the number 3 spot in deeper leagues or if you are desperate because of injury. I would say that MJD rises above this level so as GL backs go, I think he could be the difference for a team that already has a solid number 1 back. MJD made an excellent #3 (scored more than my #2) back for me and every time I benched him, I regretted it. I'll take those 3-yard, 2 touchdown efforts any day.

 

[DenverBroncos]

Barry Sanders, a career 5.0 yards per carry runner and arguably one of the best RBs of all time, only had 2 back-to-back seasons of over 5.0 ypc in his career. That's a ten season career, and only twice was he back to back over 5 ypc. In two seasons out of ten was his ypc 5.7 or above. In the seasons following those two 5.7 ypc seasons, we see that Sanders dropped from 5.7 to 4.8(.9 ypc) and 6.1 to 4.3 (1.8 ypc). Not only should a big drop in ypc for MJD be possible, it should be expected!

Ask yourself, is MJD such a game-changing talent that he should be in a new category all by himself? Is his system, line, and surrounding talent that much better, or is it him? Compare to some of the previous generation's stars, and his contemporary peers and we see.

Back-to-back 5+ ypc seasons:

Sanders - twice (10 years)

Faulk - twice (12 years)

Tomlinson - never (6 years)

---

5.5 or greater ypc seasons:

Sanders - twice

Faulk - once

Tomlinson - never

---

All of these standout players were considered workhorse RBs for virtually their entire careers. And MJD is not expected to see the 300+ carries this season, so many I am not comparing apples to apples. I just find it strange that so many are so willing to give this guy a 5+ ypc average next year. My feeling, is that MJD had just an unusually good season last year in terms of yardage, and that there is a very great chance that we will see his percentages decline enough that he will be LESS productive next season on MORE touches. Because traditionally, one would think that an increase in touches would result in a decrease in effectiveness correct? I almost like to think of it as the Kevan Barlow effect.

What has MJD shown to demonstrate that he is the equal of some of the greatest RBs in the game? The TDs, which I think can be considered pretty damn fluky, should be a much stronger argument for MJD than the ypc averages we are seeing in this thread. Give him 200/850/15 and I will believe it a lot more than 220/1200/8

I never said MJD would ever be mentioned in the same breath as Barry Sanders or Marshall Faulk. I just said the dude had a great rookie year in the touchdown department and there is nothing substantially changed about his offense except that teams will be looking for him. I'm sure they were looking for him after he started scored 1 or 2 TD's a week but what could defenses do? When you give the guy the rock at the 2, he's going to punch it in just about every time. I sure don't believe he'll rush for 1700 yards (I doubt he'll even get 500 if FT stays healthy) but I do think he will get 10 to 15 touchdowns as long as they can move the ball into the red zone. The dude has skills, plain and simple so I think writing off his rookie year as "fluky" is a bit short-sighted. He runs low to the ground and with his eyes up and he's not afraid of contact one bit. Kind of like what everybody thought Cedric Benson was going to bring to the table. If you ask me, I'll give you 10 Cedric Bensons to my one MJD and we'll see who has more points at the end of the season.The bottom line is that MJD makes a great second or third running back, not a premier player around which to build a team. Goal-line backs are usually only considered for the number 3 spot in deeper leagues or if you are desperate because of injury. I would say that MJD rises above this level so as GL backs go, I think he could be the difference for a team that already has a solid number 1 back. MJD made an excellent #3 (scored more than my #2) back for me and every time I benched him, I regretted it. I'll take those 3-yard, 2 touchdown efforts any day.

I'll take this bet!

 

[GDogg]

Barry Sanders, a career 5.0 yards per carry runner and arguably one of the best RBs of all time, only had 2 back-to-back seasons of over 5.0 ypc in his career. That's a ten season career, and only twice was he back to back over 5 ypc. In two seasons out of ten was his ypc 5.7 or above. In the seasons following those two 5.7 ypc seasons, we see that Sanders dropped from 5.7 to 4.8(.9 ypc) and 6.1 to 4.3 (1.8 ypc). Not only should a big drop in ypc for MJD be possible, it should be expected!

Ask yourself, is MJD such a game-changing talent that he should be in a new category all by himself? Is his system, line, and surrounding talent that much better, or is it him? Compare to some of the previous generation's stars, and his contemporary peers and we see.

Back-to-back 5+ ypc seasons:

Sanders - twice (10 years)

Faulk - twice (12 years)

Tomlinson - never (6 years)

---

5.5 or greater ypc seasons:

Sanders - twice

Faulk - once

Tomlinson - never

---

All of these standout players were considered workhorse RBs for virtually their entire careers. And MJD is not expected to see the 300+ carries this season, so many I am not comparing apples to apples. I just find it strange that so many are so willing to give this guy a 5+ ypc average next year. My feeling, is that MJD had just an unusually good season last year in terms of yardage, and that there is a very great chance that we will see his percentages decline enough that he will be LESS productive next season on MORE touches. Because traditionally, one would think that an increase in touches would result in a decrease in effectiveness correct? I almost like to think of it as the Kevan Barlow effect.

Logically-speaking, what do any of those running backs have to do with Maurice Drew's performance? It isn't logical to say that X player (even if he is a HOF'er) didn't do it, so Maurice Drew won't do it, either.

What has MJD shown to demonstrate that he is the equal of some of the greatest RBs in the game? The TDs, which I think can be considered pretty damn fluky, should be a much stronger argument for MJD than the ypc averages we are seeing in this thread. Give him 200/850/15 and I will believe it a lot more than 220/1200/8

Did you watch him play at all last year?What he's shown.

 

[Block]

Most of you will be disappointed with Drew this year.

I think much of his success last year was due to his relatively diminutive size and opposing teams not being ready for him. He's a good player, but I think his YPC dips under 5 and his touchdowns also decrease. I think the Jacksonville running game as a whole will have alot of trouble replicating last year's performance. I also think that Greg Jones will see significant touches, maybe close to 100 over the course of the season.

That being said, Drew should still have 1100-1200 yards total and 8 TDs or so.

I think both of the bolded statements are off. If you expect MJD to have 5.6 YPC and the same amount of TD's he had last year then you will be dissapointed. Both are going to drop. Will his YPC drop to 4.0 or TD's drop 50%? No. Look for his YPC to drop down to somewhere between 4.5-5.0. But also expect his carries to go up which will offset his dip in YPC.

To expect his TD's to go down to something like 8 is just ridiculous. This prediction has to be from someone who doesn't actually watch the Jags games. Taylor pulls himself at the goal line. This was happening before they really knew what they had in MJD. MJD is going to get a ton of opportunity at the goal line and on 3rd down. If his opportunities remain high his TD's are going to remain high. I don't expect the ridiculous number he had as a rook, but I would think he would have a minimum of 12 TD's this year.

I see Greg Jones getting a decent number of short yardage touches.

 

[Byron_nyc]

Strength to break through linemen, speed to outrun cornerbacks. Great hands and elite vision. 1300+ combined yards and 15 TDs in 2006 as a rookie -- those are better stats than Reggie Bush. If he didn't play in the smallest market in the league, everyone would know the man they call Superman. If Fred Taylor, age 30, stays healthy, MJD will be a top 20 RB. If Taylor gets hurt, or benched, MJD could lead the league in total yards. Draft him in the second round and pray for rain.

 

[Rounders]

Does anyone know what his TD scoring runs were last year or where I can find that information. I seem to recall (and could be wrong) that he scored on quite a few runs of 20+ yards.

 

[David Yudkin]

Does anyone know what his TD scoring runs were last year or where I can find that information. I seem to recall (and could be wrong) that he scored on quite a few runs of 20+ yards.

Rushing: 6, 4, 1, 3, 3, 14, 32, 18, 48, 12, 74, 1, 5Receiving: 7, 5112 total plays of 20 or more yards. 41 total plays of 10 or more yards.

 

[Rounders]

Does anyone know what his TD scoring runs were last year or where I can find that information. I seem to recall (and could be wrong) that he scored on quite a few runs of 20+ yards.

Rushing: 6, 4, 1, 3, 3, 14, 32, 18, 48, 12, 74, 1, 5Receiving: 7, 5112 total plays of 20 or more yards. 41 total plays of 10 or more yards.

Thanks Yudkin.To my surprise 7 of his rushing TDs came from inside the 5. What concerns me most about his scoring history is the scoring plays over 30 yards. Those are TDs that you can not count on again.

 

[kensat30]

All I was doing by comparing what MJD did last season versus the careers of other great RBs, was to show that it is very rare for a RB to perform at such a high level consistently season to season. In fact it is very rare for a RB to perform at such a high level during any given season during his entire career, let alone in back to back seasons. MJD may break the mold and be the next Jim Brown, but even then Jim Brown had some "down" seasons as well. It's foolish to PREDICT a player to have a career year every year in terms of efficiency. And I think as MJD moves along during his career, I think we will see that 2006 was his career high in terms of running and scoring efficiency. Does that mean he's reached his peak in terms of production? Probably not, but with Fred Taylor in the picture chances are overwhelmingly against him seeing enough workload to answer that question.

To predict and even expect MJD to be an all world RB again next season in terms of rushing and scoring is almost ridiculous to me. Granted, he may very well be that good again next year, but the chances are very slim in my eyes. Even if he were to reach that level again next year, the main reason why it would happen is the fact that Jacksonville employs a 1-2 punch that proved to be very effective last year. And arguing for a player because he sees a reduced workload just doesn't connect for me. The guy is very good, I'll be the first to admit it. But if you think he can continue to score TDs once every 12 carries, and rush the ball for 5+ yards every time he touches the ball for the rest of his career, you've got another thing coming IMO.

 

[IAmTheBruteSquad]

One point that I haven't really seen brought up yet is that Jacksonville didn't exactly have the QB or WR's that struck fear into defenses. Do you think that teams might have stacked the box last year, knowing the strength of JAC's running game? Just thinking out loud.

I think MJD is a especially talented player with a hard work ethic and character to match.

Splitting time:

210/1100/12

65/450/4

 

[JimboJim]

One point that I haven't really seen brought up yet is that Jacksonville didn't exactly have the QB or WR's that struck fear into defenses. Do you think that teams might have stacked the box last year, knowing the strength of JAC's running game? Just thinking out loud. I think MJD is a especially talented player with a hard work ethic and character to match.Splitting time:210/1100/1265/450/4

These type of predictions absolutely amaze me.You're telling me the guy is going to continue scoring at a pace of one TD per every 17 touches; that's a near record breaking season pace if he gets a full load.At that rate, the Jags should just give him the full load and he's guaranteed 25 scores; they'd be a lock for the playoffs.If MJD gets less than 300 total touches, 10-12 TDs is wishful tinking; last years 15 TDs on 212 touches was an absolute abberation.I like the guy, but until Taylor is gone and Greg Jones isn't a factor at the goal line (???), MJD's upside is severly limited.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

I like the fact that everyone seems to be low on MJD - lets me steal him in the 2nd/3rd round

 

[DenverBroncos]

MJD will finish at RB 20-25.

 

[Drop]

I didn't read all the posts, so if some of this has been said I apologize.

Projections are what they are, you really have to judge the situation more than the raw numbers projected.

For redraft leagues I break it down like this: (his value in a keeper league is much higher)

Fred Taylor is admired as the best runner in the NFL by none other than Jim Brown. He may be old and some people may unjustly call him fragile, but it really is his starting job. Is Greg Jones still on the Jags, what's his deal? I'm not up on his situation, but he could somewhat of a factor in their plans if he's still there I just haven't heard anything about him, so check that out as well. The QB situation isn't too big of a deal at this point, because they play a certain style where they wan't to run and play defense. They have plugged guys in and had success, and they do have talent even at WR. They may underachieve, but they have plenty of weapons to create mismatches in the passing game with height at WR and TE, and Matt Jones could break out this season. His stats don't show it, but if you saw him play when he was healthy and Byron was healthy, there was plenty to be excited about.

That being said, MJD is a playmaker. He will score and make big plays (rushing & receiving), that's what he does. The Jags want to run the ball to control games, which is good for a 2 back system. He can be a feature back and carry the load as well, but will that be his role? Remember that his ability will make things easier on Fred because he doesn't have to carry the load all by himself, and vice versa. Which means that injuries to Taylor may be more unlikely from burnout. I know age is usually a good benchmark for declining production in RBs, but there are exceptions to the rule and the face of a franchise usually plays 1 year too many as it is, so Fred isn't going anywhere this season unless he gets hurt. If you can forecase injuries and put all your eggs in one basket based on that, fine. I just can't do that.

The real value of MJD will come on a week by week basis when he projects to have a big game, especially if Fred is out or has nagging injuries. The fact that his big plays can come at any time in any game coupled with his solid numbers when he does carry the load really make his numbers impressive when you consider his situation last season. However the fact remains that he's a backup, RBBC at best. He is going to be a hot player in most drafts, so how high can you go after him is the big question. It's not going to be like last season where only the people who saw him play realized his potential and drafted him late in the draft.

His play last season worked out very well for a lot of owners because he was consistently scoring and had solid safe projections of a weekly basis, but the draft position that he'll warrant this season is probably best suited for a starting back who will get the majority of the carrys. It's much different to have him on your roster when you used your high picks on established stars with clearcut situations, you won't have that luxury this year. His production probably was a bit above his head as well and we may see a regression to the mean this season, because teams will have more information on how to defend him. He's still a talent now with a year under his belt, so perhaps better things are to come, but a slump from a high pick could really hurt your team. You will have to guess right on which weeks to start him and sit him, which isn't a situation you really want with a RB that you took early. I say let other owners worry about that dilema and take a back in a more consistent situation. If MJD slips in your draft obviously take him, but that probably isn't going to happen.

I don't know exactly where he will be drafted, but judging by some of these projections plenty of people are a little too high on him.

Depending on the size of your league, scoring system, and roster flexibility he probably is best suited as a guy that you don't have to start every week. He may play his way into that role, but it's better to be prepared for the chance that he doesn't continue the pace he had last season while at the same time being prepared to plug him in if a favorable matchup arises.

He's a good player and there is no doubt that he can win you weeks, but you really can't draft him over any feature backs or stud WRs if they are available. While it may be fun to draft him just so you can refer to him as Mega Man and watch a midget with watermelon sized quads make plays, you have to becareful that he is not the pick that makes or breaks your season.

 

[Keith Lewis]

I like the fact that everyone seems to be low on MJD - lets me steal him in the 2nd/3rd round

Just picked him up at 3.1. LT, Ocho Cinco, MJD to start off.

 

[David Yudkin]

I like the fact that everyone seems to be low on MJD - lets me steal him in the 2nd/3rd round

Just picked him up at 3.1. LT, Ocho Cinco, MJD to start off.

In leagues I am either in or closely following he's gone 16th, 15th, 19th, and 13th.

 

[Blackjacks]

Does anyone else notice that he put up his big #s with Garrard under center instead of the proposed starter Leftwich. I know qb's don't matter for the rb as much as a wr would and perhaps (and probably) it had more to do with MJD being a rookie and needed alittle time to adjust to the game but the #'s are extremely different starting the first week Leftwich was out. MJD still put up descent #'s the 3,4,5 and 6th week but they were not consistent plays for a rb. Week 3 he caught a 7 yard pass for a td, week 4 he did nothing except a 51 yard td pass, Against the Jets he had a pretty consistant game and looked more like a rb rushing for 2 td's of 4 and 6 yards and then Houston he had a 1 yard td but was spectacular. I really like MJD's talent but still being a split back and not getting all the carries I think he might go alittle high in drafts this year. Once Fred gets out of town I think he could be $ but for now I have to treat him as a part time rb.

180 carries for 810 yards (4.5 avg.)

50 catches 400 yards (8 avg.)

8 td's

1200 and 8 td's sound good

top 15-20 rb

 

[David Yudkin]

Consolidating my thoughts from other threads . . .- Taylor got a 3-year, $15 million contract extension. That's a lot of money to have sitting on the sideline.- Almost 50% of all RB that have scored 15 TD in YEAR X have scored single digit TD in YEAR X + 1 -- and those were players that had full time work loads.- Drew was off the chart in terms of ypc and TD% last year, neither of which I think he'll repeat. The Jags rushing totals were nowhere near as high in the years preceding last year. Taylor is still around and will get a decent chunk of the workload. Some of the RB production could just evaporate.- The Jags had almost 600 rushing yards in two games against the Colts -- another thing that I don't see happening again.- JAX implementing a more VERTICAL offense. The team was Top 5 in rushing categories but Bottom 5 in passing categories -- and their record suffered as a result.- Many other players that posted exceptionally high ypc with at least 100 carries in a season did not turn into uber studs including Keith Lincoln, Mercury Morris, Paul Lowe, Hokie Gajan, Ted McKnight, John David Crow, Napolen Kaufman, Abner Haynes, Don Calhoun, Bo Jackson, Amos Marsh, and Brad Hubbert.- Of the 19 players that scored 15 times in under 250 touches, again there were many that were not uber studs in the future: John David Crow, Pete Banaszak, Dan Reeves, Billy Cannon, Derrick Fenner, Cleveland Gary, Cookie Gilchrist, David Sims, Sherman Smith. and Ickey Woods.- The 06 Jags RBs totalled 423.9 fantasy poionts. The 05 RBs totalled 287.6. I happen to think that the 07 version will be closer to the 05 totals than the 06 ones.- People keep bashing Fred Taylor like he's Eddie George. Taylor set career highs in ypc and ypr last year and averaged 93 yards from scrimmage per game last season. He's one of only 5 RB in the past 15 years to have a 5.0/10.0 ypc/ypr with at least 200 carries and 20 receptions (along with Portis, Faulk, Hearst, and LJohnson).- Last year was one of few times where the minority share holder outranked the majority shareholder of the RB workload from the same team.- The Jags official website just had an interview with MJD, who said:

Fred Taylor, of course, is the team’s featured running back. Jones-Drew is Taylor’s complement and the two came within 69 yards last season of becoming only the fifth pair in NFL history to each rush for 1,000 yards in a season.Taylor had one of his best seasons last year. His 1,146 yards rushing came at a 5.0 yards-per-carry clip, and Jones-Drew’s presence was a big factor in Taylor still having fresh legs late in the season. In the “senior years” of his career, Taylor welcomes the help. Sharing the load should help extend his career.“When Fred’s time comes, I’ll be ready to take over,” Jones-Drew said.Being ready at all times is something in which Jones-Drew prides himself. He also shared time at UCLA, which was probably the product of his diminutive size. A guy who’s 5-7 isn’t supposed to be durable enough to carry the load.“It’s hard to get into a rhythm,” he said of having to come off the bench for a few carries here and there. “You have to make plays right away. That’s what I learned at UCLA. It helped me out.”

This does not sound like a phasing out of Taylor any time soon.- In the games Leftwich has played he's averaged 31.3 passing attempts per game. That works out to 500 passing attemtps in a 16-game season. Last year the Jags had 446 passing attempts and seemed to run more with Garrard at QB. If Leftwich is able to stay in the lineup I think by default they will run less regardless if they try to make big strides in the passing game.- If I were to guess, I suspect we will see more of a split like 2004 (514 passing attempts and 446 rushing attempts). That's 75 fewer rushing attempts and I'm not sure who would lose out if that were to happen.For the record, I *AM NOT* anti Jones-Drew. I just don't like his situation as currently constituted. IMO, he will need a lot more of the workload to rank where many people are ranking or projecting him. That certainly could happen with an early season injury to Taylor, but for my money taking essentially a back up (maybe better defined as a RB at a minimum receiving less than half of the workload) is a risky proposition. In a 0 PPR redraft league, I've been saying the same thing about Reggie Bush.

 

[(HULK)]

Barry Sanders, a career 5.0 yards per carry runner and arguably one of the best RBs of all time, only had 2 back-to-back seasons of over 5.0 ypc in his career. That's a ten season career, and only twice was he back to back over 5 ypc. In two seasons out of ten was his ypc 5.7 or above. In the seasons following those two 5.7 ypc seasons, we see that Sanders dropped from 5.7 to 4.8(.9 ypc) and 6.1 to 4.3 (1.8 ypc). Not only should a big drop in ypc for MJD be possible, it should be expected!Ask yourself, is MJD such a game-changing talent that he should be in a new category all by himself? Is his system, line, and surrounding talent that much better, or is it him? Compare to some of the previous generation's stars, and his contemporary peers and we see.Back-to-back 5+ ypc seasons:Sanders - twice (10 years) Faulk - twice (12 years)Tomlinson - never (6 years)---5.5 or greater ypc seasons:Sanders - twiceFaulk - onceTomlinson - never---All of these standout players were considered workhorse RBs for virtually their entire careers. And MJD is not expected to see the 300+ carries this season, so many I am not comparing apples to apples. I just find it strange that so many are so willing to give this guy a 5+ ypc average next year. My feeling, is that MJD had just an unusually good season last year in terms of yardage, and that there is a very great chance that we will see his percentages decline enough that he will be LESS productive next season on MORE touches. Because traditionally, one would think that an increase in touches would result in a decrease in effectiveness correct? I almost like to think of it as the Kevan Barlow effect. What has MJD shown to demonstrate that he is the equal of some of the greatest RBs in the game? The TDs, which I think can be considered pretty damn fluky, should be a much stronger argument for MJD than the ypc averages we are seeing in this thread. Give him 200/850/15 and I will believe it a lot more than 220/1200/8

I never said MJD would ever be mentioned in the same breath as Barry Sanders or Marshall Faulk. I just said the dude had a great rookie year in the touchdown department and there is nothing substantially changed about his offense except that teams will be looking for him. I'm sure they were looking for him after he started scored 1 or 2 TD's a week but what could defenses do? When you give the guy the rock at the 2, he's going to punch it in just about every time. I sure don't believe he'll rush for 1700 yards (I doubt he'll even get 500 if FT stays healthy) but I do think he will get 10 to 15 touchdowns as long as they can move the ball into the red zone. The dude has skills, plain and simple so I think writing off his rookie year as "fluky" is a bit short-sighted. He runs low to the ground and with his eyes up and he's not afraid of contact one bit. Kind of like what everybody thought Cedric Benson was going to bring to the table. If you ask me, I'll give you 10 Cedric Bensons to my one MJD and we'll see who has more points at the end of the season.The bottom line is that MJD makes a great second or third running back, not a premier player around which to build a team. Goal-line backs are usually only considered for the number 3 spot in deeper leagues or if you are desperate because of injury. I would say that MJD rises above this level so as GL backs go, I think he could be the difference for a team that already has a solid number 1 back. MJD made an excellent #3 (scored more than my #2) back for me and every time I benched him, I regretted it. I'll take those 3-yard, 2 touchdown efforts any day.

I'm sorry but did you watch him at all last season? He was never exclusively a goal line back, and I'm confused why you're describing him as one.Before Taylor's injury, they were splitting carries 60/40. I'd bet dollars to donuts that is reversed this season.MJD gets it 60% of the time coming down the field and 90% of the time inside the 10 this year.250 carries for 1300 yards 12 rush tds50 receptions for 500 yards 4 receptions tds

 

[(HULK)]

Strength to break through linemen, speed to outrun cornerbacks. Great hands and elite vision. 1300+ combined yards and 15 TDs in 2006 as a rookie -- those are better stats than Reggie Bush. If he didn't play in the smallest market in the league, everyone would know the man they call Superman. If Fred Taylor, age 30, stays healthy, MJD will be a top 20 RB. If Taylor gets hurt, or benched, MJD could lead the league in total yards. Draft him in the second round and pray for rain.

Fred Taylor turned 31 this past January.Thats a senior citizen in RB years.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

I don't have much to say that hasn't already been said.

200/1000/9

50/450/2

 

[ThePittbully]

Taylor may have a 3 year extension, but that doesn't change the fact that he's 31 years old and is about as brittle as they come. You can call MJD's 16 Td's a fluke, and I agree he may not reach that number again anytime soon. HOWEVER, scoring 1 or more td's in 8 straight games in the NFL is no fluke, thats pure talent. I'm projecting MJD, assuming Taylor doesnt get hurt (large assumption) 1000-1100 rush yds, 350 rec yds, 10 TD's

 

[David Yudkin]

Taylor may have a 3 year extension, but that doesn't change the fact that he's 31 years old and is about as brittle as they come. You can call MJD's 16 Td's a fluke, and I agree he may not reach that number again anytime soon. HOWEVER, scoring 1 or more td's in 8 straight games in the NFL is no fluke, thats pure talent. I'm projecting MJD, assuming Taylor doesnt get hurt (large assumption) 1000-1100 rush yds, 350 rec yds, 10 TD's

Over the years, there have been 53 occasions where a RB 31 or older had 200 or more touches on a season. I suspect Taylor will be added to the list this year. There have also been 89 RBs that were 31 or older to score at least 100 fantasy points in a season--and again I expect Taylor to join that group.I don't think many (any?) people are projecting Taylor as a Top 5 or Top 10 candidate this year. There have been 40 guys that scored 150+ points (which in today's era would normally rank around the RB 25. Taylor should be just good enough to impact MJD's totals on the season.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Taylor may have a 3 year extension, but that doesn't change the fact that he's 31 years old and is about as brittle as they come. You can call MJD's 16 Td's a fluke, and I agree he may not reach that number again anytime soon. HOWEVER, scoring 1 or more td's in 8 straight games in the NFL is no fluke, thats pure talent. I'm projecting MJD, assuming Taylor doesnt get hurt (large assumption) 1000-1100 rush yds, 350 rec yds, 10 TD's

Over the years, there have been 53 occasions where a RB 31 or older had 200 or more touches on a season. I suspect Taylor will be added to the list this year. There have also been 89 RBs that were 31 or older to score at least 100 fantasy points in a season--and again I expect Taylor to join that group.I don't think many (any?) people are projecting Taylor as a Top 5 or Top 10 candidate this year. There have been 40 guys that scored 150+ points (which in today's era would normally rank around the RB 25. Taylor should be just good enough to impact MJD's totals on the season.

DY I asked you this in another thread when you brought this up.How many of those RBs had the injury history of Taylor, how many had missed 32 games in their career and how many had a back up that put up the numbers MJD did? I bet that number is gonna be much smaller then 40.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

DYNAMO!

Get him the ball and the fantasy points will follow.

He will get a few more touches this year in the offense.

He will continue to put up 5 yards a carry.

He will continue to find the endzone.

Stats? Does Fred Taylor get hurt? If so, when?

Do they continue to use him so much on special teams?

210 rushes

1100 yards

5.2 per

11 TD

40 catches

360 yards

2 TD

1 TD return

 

[David Yudkin]

Taylor may have a 3 year extension, but that doesn't change the fact that he's 31 years old and is about as brittle as they come. You can call MJD's 16 Td's a fluke, and I agree he may not reach that number again anytime soon. HOWEVER, scoring 1 or more td's in 8 straight games in the NFL is no fluke, thats pure talent. I'm projecting MJD, assuming Taylor doesnt get hurt (large assumption) 1000-1100 rush yds, 350 rec yds, 10 TD's

Over the years, there have been 53 occasions where a RB 31 or older had 200 or more touches on a season. I suspect Taylor will be added to the list this year. There have also been 89 RBs that were 31 or older to score at least 100 fantasy points in a season--and again I expect Taylor to join that group.I don't think many (any?) people are projecting Taylor as a Top 5 or Top 10 candidate this year. There have been 40 guys that scored 150+ points (which in today's era would normally rank around the RB 25. Taylor should be just good enough to impact MJD's totals on the season.

DY I asked you this in another thread when you brought this up.How many of those RBs had the injury history of Taylor, how many had missed 32 games in their career and how many had a back up that put up the numbers MJD did? I bet that number is gonna be much smaller then 40.

I'm not sure that helps or hurts your argument. Not many players have had years like MJD did so of course the answer will be not many. However, that does not mean a lot of these teams did not have options and did choose to play the older veteran at the expense of younger backs. The list includes:John Riggins (paired with Joe Washington who ranked 22nd)Curtis Martin (who managed to keep Lamont Jordan seeing limited touches)Ricky Watters (who kept Shaun Alexander on the bench)Flloyd Little (who teamed with Joe Dawkins who ranked 28th)Ottis Anderson (who kept Rodney Hampton to a reduced role)Priest Holmes (who initially held off Larry Johnson until Holmes got hurt)Garrison Hearst (who could forget the Kevan Barlow situation)Jerrome Bettis (with Willie Parker as a little used reserve)Corey Dillon (with phenom Laurence Maroney splitting time)Pete Banaszak (leaving Mark VanEeghen as a backup initially)Larry Csonka (sending Delvin Williams (a Top 10 RB the year before) to a part time role)Warrick Dunn (still having a load of the workload over Jerious Norwood)Robb Riddick (causing Thurman Thomas to see a partial workload)

 

[hotdogcollars]

A) Anyone looking to take MJD in Rd 1 has him seriously over valued IMO, or is counting on an early FT injury

B) Anyone taking MJD in early Rd 2 is counting on the TD #s to stay the same. For someone to expect an RB in a two back system to put up 13-15 TDs in back to back years AND when the actual goal line RB (Jones) is coming back, is a bit lofty

C) Look at MJD last year before FT got hurt: He carried the ball 10 times or more in only 3 of those games, he averaged 0.67 TD per game (rush and rec), and he broke 100 yds only once...against the porous early season Indy run D.

D) With that said, the coaching staff is under pressure this year in Jax and has to win now. So, they may try to find the hot horse and ride him to the playoffs. This may or may not be MJD.

MJD has a lot of upside, but unless you are in a PPC league and feel like you have a stud at RB1, i would stay away from him unless he slips to late RD2. Too many "ifs" have to fall into place for him to produce as a RB2. I think you could still get Westbrook in late Rd 1 or early Rd 2 and i would much rather have him than MJD

Projections:

Rush - 205 / 902 / 7

Rec - 58 / 450 / 4

Not a bad year, puts him at ~259 pts in a PPC and ~200 in a non-PPC. But, unless you're gambling a bit, not a Rd 1 or early Rd 2 pick

 

[H.K.]

A) Anyone looking to take MJD in Rd 1 has him seriously over valued IMO, or is counting on an early FT injury

Projections:

Rush - 205 / 902 / 7

Rec - 58 / 450 / 4

Not a bad year, puts him at ~259 pts in a PPC and ~200 in a non-PPC. But, unless you're gambling a bit, not a Rd 1 or early Rd 2 pick

In PPR, your projection for him would have placed him 10th in 2006, 8th in 2005 and 8th in 2004 among all RB's......You have estimated he'll have stats to make him an obvious first round selection in 12 team leagues or larger, however, you begin your post by saying he isn't worth one ...........(and people call me crazy).

 

[Block]

A) Anyone looking to take MJD in Rd 1 has him seriously over valued IMO, or is counting on an early FT injury

Projections:

Rush - 205 / 902 / 7

Rec - 58 / 450 / 4

Not a bad year, puts him at ~259 pts in a PPC and ~200 in a non-PPC. But, unless you're gambling a bit, not a Rd 1 or early Rd 2 pick

In PPR, your projection for him would have placed him 10th in 2006, 8th in 2005 and 8th in 2004 among all RB's......You have estimated he'll have stats to make him an obvious first round selection in 12 team leagues or larger, however, you begin your post by saying he isn't worth one ...........(and people call me crazy).

Where people end up and where they are projected are two different things. End-of-year rankings are influenced by injuries that we can't predict most of the time. Miss two games and you might rank behind a player you would have been ahead of had you played.

 

[H.K.]

A) Anyone looking to take MJD in Rd 1 has him seriously over valued IMO, or is counting on an early FT injury

Projections:

Rush - 205 / 902 / 7

Rec - 58 / 450 / 4

Not a bad year, puts him at ~259 pts in a PPC and ~200 in a non-PPC. But, unless you're gambling a bit, not a Rd 1 or early Rd 2 pick

In PPR, your projection for him would have placed him 10th in 2006, 8th in 2005 and 8th in 2004 among all RB's......You have estimated he'll have stats to make him an obvious first round selection in 12 team leagues or larger, however, you begin your post by saying he isn't worth one ...........(and people call me crazy).

Where people end up and where they are projected are two different things. End-of-year rankings are influenced by injuries that we can't predict most of the time. Miss two games and you might rank behind a player you would have been ahead of had you played.

Agreed on all statements, but those items should be factored into projections, as well. Besides all that, giving a projection which historically lands an RB firmly in the top 10, and stating that those numbers will be a dissappointment if taken in the late first and early second round is highly contradictory.

 

[Block]

A) Anyone looking to take MJD in Rd 1 has him seriously over valued IMO, or is counting on an early FT injury

Projections:

Rush - 205 / 902 / 7

Rec - 58 / 450 / 4

Not a bad year, puts him at ~259 pts in a PPC and ~200 in a non-PPC. But, unless you're gambling a bit, not a Rd 1 or early Rd 2 pick

In PPR, your projection for him would have placed him 10th in 2006, 8th in 2005 and 8th in 2004 among all RB's......You have estimated he'll have stats to make him an obvious first round selection in 12 team leagues or larger, however, you begin your post by saying he isn't worth one ...........(and people call me crazy).

Where people end up and where they are projected are two different things. End-of-year rankings are influenced by injuries that we can't predict most of the time. Miss two games and you might rank behind a player you would have been ahead of had you played.

Agreed on all statements, but those items should be factored into projections, as well. Besides all that, giving a projection which historically lands an RB firmly in the top 10, and stating that those numbers will be a dissappointment if taken in the late first and early second round is highly contradictory.

Not true. Unless a player has a long injury history, projecting injuries is a waste of time. For most players, projections are based on playing in 16 games.Having said that, injuries do happen, they just usually cannot be predicted. So projections are generally higher than end year totals. A certain projection could easily rank a player at RB20 among the other projections, and that player could end up being RB13 at the end of the season with those stats. That projection wouldn't be a bad projection because of it, it would just mean that a few runners ahead of him likely got hurt.

 

[H.K.]

Not true. Unless a player has a long injury history, projecting injuries is a waste of time. For most players, projections are based on playing in 16 games.Having said that, injuries do happen, they just usually cannot be predicted. So projections are generally higher than end year totals. A certain projection could easily rank a player at RB20 among the other projections, and that player could end up being RB13 at the end of the season with those stats. That projection wouldn't be a bad projection because of it, it would just mean that a few runners ahead of him likely got hurt.

...or it could mean the projections to be begin with were unrealistic. Chalking it up to players getting hurt, etc. is a cop out. We have enough data to know what type of statistics should be produced at each ranking spot for every position. We don't project a guy to have 35 TD passes and be the #9 QB in FF because we know he'd finish higher than that based on history. RB's are no different, so don't give a top ten projection and say it isn't based on your other projections, because that means their is no realistic basis factored into the equation. :hijack over:

 

[Block]

Not true. Unless a player has a long injury history, projecting injuries is a waste of time. For most players, projections are based on playing in 16 games.Having said that, injuries do happen, they just usually cannot be predicted. So projections are generally higher than end year totals. A certain projection could easily rank a player at RB20 among the other projections, and that player could end up being RB13 at the end of the season with those stats. That projection wouldn't be a bad projection because of it, it would just mean that a few runners ahead of him likely got hurt.

...or it could mean the projections to be begin with were unrealistic. Chalking it up to players getting hurt, etc. is a cop out. We have enough data to know what type of statistics should be produced at each ranking spot for every position. We don't project a guy to have 35 TD passes and be the #9 QB in FF because we know he'd finish higher than that based on history. RB's are no different, so don't give a top ten projection and say it isn't based on your other projections, because that means their is no realistic basis factored into the equation. :hijack over:

Let me explain again, because you don't seem to understand.When you make projections, for the vast majority of players these projections are what you would expect their numbers to be for a full 16 game season. Then you take these projections and rank them in terms of fantasy points.In the real world, a number of players will get hurt. Some will miss significant time, some will only miss a game or two, and others will be limited in some of the games they play. This will all affect their final numbers, but cannot be predicted before the season began. We know some players will miss time, but we don't know who.This is why projections are generally inflated when compared to final numbers, but it's not a bad thing.

 

[David Yudkin]

This is why projections are generally inflated when compared to final numbers, but it's not a bad thing.

This is why when I make projections I generally shave off a small % to make them more in line with reality and also deduct some for players that have historically been banged up.While that may seem unfair or just plain wrong to project one guy with more games played, that's how I generally do it and overall it has worked out ok. Clearly it's impossible to predict who will go down in Week 3 for the entire season, but it's not a stretch to only give certain players 13 or 14 games played because that's what they normally play.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am with Anarchy on MJD. I think his performance last year was very flukish and it is very unlikely to be repeated. I will try to find the post from last winter where I asked if there was a player in history that had similar TD/touch ratio and high YPC to MJD. The closest player was Gayle Sayers and that performance was not repeated.

Gayle Sayers:

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1965 chi | 14 | 166 867 5.2 14 | 29 507 17.5 6 |

| 1966 chi | 14 | 229 1231 5.4 8 | 34 447 13.1 2 |

| 1967 chi | 13 | 186 880 4.7 7 | 16 126 7.9 1 |

| 1968 chi | 9 | 138 856 6.2 2 | 15 117 7.8 0 |

| 1969 chi | 14 | 236 1032 4.4 8 | 17 116 6.8 0 |

| 1970 chi | 2 | 23 52 2.3 0 | 1 -6 -6.0 0 |

| 1971 chi | 2 | 13 38 2.9 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 68 | 991 4956 5.0 39 | 112 1307 11.7 9 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

I do think MJD is an outstanding talent however many of his plays were luck where the defense broke down.

Here is a breakdown of his performance by game from last season:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| 1 dal | 2 8 | 0 | 0 |

| 2 pit | 2 4 | 6 | 0 |

| 3 ind | 13 103 | 32 | 1 | broke off multiple long gains against poor Colts D. Gets to play them twice again and will be a must start in those games.

| 4 was | 3 3 | 53 | 1 | 51 yard reception for TD in otherwise non-existent game

| 5 nyj | 13 59 | 0 | 2 | 2 short yardage TD in 41-0 blowout of the Jets

| 7 hou | 8 10 | 58 | 1 | never gets untracked running the ball but effective as a reciever in garbage time when Texan D is protecting a lead. Also scored short yardage TD

| 8 phi | 21 77 | 20 | 0 | solid game for MJD.

| 9 ten | 8 56 | 29 | 0 | 40 yard run against poor Titans D boosts an otherwise below average game

| 10 hou | 3 11 | 56 | 1 | does well as a reciever in garbage time when Texan D is protecting a lead. Also scored short yardage TD

| 11 nyg | 9 45 | 16 | 1 | 24 yard run boosts YPC another short yardage TD. Productive with limited carries.

| 12 buf | 8 78 | 47 | 1 | Bills run D not very good. Solid performance with limited carries.

| 13 mia | 5 46 | 0 | 1 | 32 yard run for TD boosts an otherwise unproductive game.

| 14 ind | 15 166 | 15 | 2 | Gashes poor Colts D again. Still gets to play them twice in 2007.

| 15 ten | 25 98 | 47 | 1 | very solid game against poor Titans D. He also gets to play the Titans twice again.

| 16 nwe | 19 131 | 41 | 2 | 74 yard run vs. the Pats. By far the most impressive game by MJD.

| 17 kan | 12 46 | 16 | 1 | solid game with limited carries to close out the season.

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| TOTAL | 166 941 | 436 | 15 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

Now I am not trying to say that these big plays do not matter or they don't count especialy with the regularity that MJD ripped them off against multiple types of defenses (although most of the defenses he did so against were below averge). But the reason I break them down like this is to show that it is highly unlikely that MJD will be able to repeat such a high big play/touch ratio. It is unprecidented historicly for even the best players to be able to do so as has been allready pointed out upthread when comparing MJD to Barry Sanders and Marshall Faulk. I will try to find the Gayle Sayers comparison and add that to this later because I thought it was pretty significant as well.

Also when one looks at the schedule MJD faced there are very few games against above average run defenses that he did well against. The flip side of this is that he still faces the Colts Titans and Texans in every season unless there is realignment. The Texans seemed to be able to control him running the ball but let him be effective as a reciever. Teams may be studying this for clues on how to defend against him.

Honestly when I watch MJD play he reminds me of Dalton Hilliard who did manage to have one great season as a feature RB for the Saints but then never repeated that performance again. I am not saying that MJD will not have further productive seasons just that his skill set and style reminds me of Hilliard.

No projections yet on MJD as I am still assesing. However with Fred resigned I do not expect a significant increase in MJDs workload. And I definitly do not see him ripping off as many explosive plays as he did last season. The short yardage TDs may still be there however as he seems to be an effecitve short yardage RB and Fred is very poor in that phase of the game, always has been. I could see Greg Jones possibly being used in that role if healthy but not neccessarily.

Will dig for the earlier post I was refering to now.. found it.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=290962&hl=

From Anarcy comparing historical success of RBs with fewer than 250 touches to MJD:

Top 10 fantasy seasons by RBs with 250 or fewer touches:

1 Gale Sayers 1965 166-867-14 + 29-507-6 = 257.40

2 Leroy Kelly 1966 209-1141-15 + 32-366-1 = 246.70

3 Billy Cannon 1961 200-948-6 + 43-586-9 = 243.40

4 Herschel Walker 1986 151-737-12 + 76-837-2 = 241.40

5 Cookie Gilchrist 1962 214-1096-13 + 24-319-2 = 231.50

6 Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 166-941-13 + 46-436-2 = 227.70

7 Lenny Moore 1961 92-648-7 + 49-728-8 = 227.60

8 Dan Reeves 1966 175-757-8 + 41-557-8 = 227.40

9 Clem Daniels 1963 215-1099-3 + 30-685-5 = 226.40

10 James Brooks 1985 192-929-7 + 55-576-5 = 222.50

 

[H.K.]

Let me explain again, because you don't seem to understand.When you make projections, for the vast majority of players these projections are what you would expect their numbers to be for a full 16 game season. Then you take these projections and rank them in terms of fantasy points.In the real world, a number of players will get hurt. Some will miss significant time, some will only miss a game or two, and others will be limited in some of the games they play. This will all affect their final numbers, but cannot be predicted before the season began. We know some players will miss time, but we don't know who.This is why projections are generally inflated when compared to final numbers, but it's not a bad thing.

I understand completely. You know your projections are wrong, you know why, and yet you don't account for it. Yudkin explained pretty well on how to account for what you simply write off as an unknown. If you want to use falsely inflated numbers to set your projections, determine VBD, your player's expectations, etc., then good luck to you.

 

[Block]

Let me explain again, because you don't seem to understand.When you make projections, for the vast majority of players these projections are what you would expect their numbers to be for a full 16 game season. Then you take these projections and rank them in terms of fantasy points.In the real world, a number of players will get hurt. Some will miss significant time, some will only miss a game or two, and others will be limited in some of the games they play. This will all affect their final numbers, but cannot be predicted before the season began. We know some players will miss time, but we don't know who.This is why projections are generally inflated when compared to final numbers, but it's not a bad thing.

I understand completely. You know your projections are wrong, you know why, and yet you don't account for it. Yudkin explained pretty well on how to account for what you simply write off as an unknown. If you want to use falsely inflated numbers to set your projections, determine VBD, your player's expectations, etc., then good luck to you.

All Yudkin said was that he reduced all of his projections by a set percentage so they will "look more real", so to speak. He can do this if he wants, but I choose not to.

 

[Sultans]

I don't think there are many better backs to own in dynasty leagues. I play in a High Performance dynasty league where RB's are rewarded for Catches and Averages per Carry and Average Per Reception. I am happy to own him. If you saw him play last year, it was clear that Jones-Drew was as impressive on the field as ANY other back. Over 30 backs decline quickly. Didn't Curtis Martin lead the league in rushing not too long ago.

That being said, I still would not draft him in the 2nd round of a one year league. Too many Question Marks. The TD's will not be replicated.

 

[SSOG]

I like the fact that everyone seems to be low on MJD - lets me steal him in the 2nd/3rd round

Just picked him up at 3.1. LT, Ocho Cinco, MJD to start off.

In leagues I am either in or closely following he's gone 16th, 15th, 19th, and 13th.

The only draft I have participated in so far was an initial dynasty draft wher MJD went 13th. To me. And I couldn't be happier about it.

 

[(HULK)]

C) Look at MJD last year before FT got hurt: He carried the ball 10 times or more in only 3 of those games, he averaged 0.67 TD per game (rush and rec), and he broke 100 yds only once...against the porous early season Indy run D.

Way to include the the first two games when he didn't even get 1 carry in your sample!Lets be real people.

MJD is going to get the ball more this year than he did last year. Jax would be crazy to not give someone as productive as he is the ball more.

Yes, Taylor is there. Taylor is going to get the ball some too.

MJD was a top 10 RB last year. Even if he gets a little less production out of his touches, he's still going to have more touches. Plus, his strength of schedule is easier this year than last, so I doubt his production will trail off too much.

He's going to at least do as well this year as he did last year. This is a top 10 RB that you can grab as your #2 RB. Please continue to hate on him.

 

[Biabreakable]

FWIW Jaguars schedule in 2007:

Sep 9 Tennessee 1:00pm

Sep 16 Atlanta 1:00pm

Sep 23 @Denver 4:05pm

Week 4 BYE

Oct 7 @Kansas City 1:00pm

Oct 14 Houston 1:00pm

Oct 22 Indianapolis 8:30pm

Oct 28 @Tampa Bay 4:05pm

Nov 4 @New Orleans 1:00pm

Nov 11 @Tennessee 1:00pm

Nov 18 San Diego 1:00pm

Nov 25 Buffalo 1:00pm

Dec 2 @Indianapolis 1:00pm

Dec 9 Carolina 1:00pm

Dec 16 @Pittsburgh 1:00pm

Dec 23 Oakland 1:00pm

Dec 30 @Houston 1:00pm

I personaly don't see this as a extremly difficult schedule as far as run defenses that MJD will face but I do think there are more difficult matchups in 2007 than they faced in 2006.

Denver

SD

CAR

PIT

OAK

It remains to be seen if Tampa can fix thier defense that collapsed last year or not. JAX did allright against KC last year. The rest of the schedule is more of the same teams that MJD had success against. Will they defend against him better in year 2? That remains to be seen.

I definitly would not say this is an easier schedule than last season however.

 

[(HULK)]

FWIW Jaguars schedule in 2007:

Sep 9 Tennessee 1:00pm

Sep 16 Atlanta 1:00pm

Sep 23 @Denver 4:05pm

Week 4 BYE

Oct 7 @Kansas City 1:00pm

Oct 14 Houston 1:00pm

Oct 22 Indianapolis 8:30pm

Oct 28 @Tampa Bay 4:05pm

Nov 4 @New Orleans 1:00pm

Nov 11 @Tennessee 1:00pm

Nov 18 San Diego 1:00pm

Nov 25 Buffalo 1:00pm

Dec 2 @Indianapolis 1:00pm

Dec 9 Carolina 1:00pm

Dec 16 @Pittsburgh 1:00pm

Dec 23 Oakland 1:00pm

Dec 30 @Houston 1:00pm

I personaly don't see this as a extremly difficult schedule as far as run defenses that MJD will face but I do think there are more difficult matchups in 2007 than they faced in 2006.

Denver

SD

CAR

PIT

OAK

It remains to be seen if Tampa can fix thier defense that collapsed last year or not. JAX did allright against KC last year. The rest of the schedule is more of the same teams that MJD had success against. Will they defend against him better in year 2? That remains to be seen.

I definitly would not say this is an easier schedule than last season however.

FBGs RB S.O.S.According to this, the Jags have the easiest run schedule in the league, and they're opponents are 11.6% easier to run on this year than last year.

 

[Jayrod]

FBGs RB S.O.S.

According to this, the Jags have the easiest run schedule in the league, and they're opponents are 11.6% easier to run on this year than last year.

One of their more favorable games is in week 17.