Player Spotlight: Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

Seattle doesn't throw that much, you say? They threw a lot more in the second half of the season when Wilson started to blossom.

How did this start? I've seen people say this so many times. I particularly love it when people say it with authority like this. Makes it even funnier that it is totally wrong.

Wilson threw the ball 210 times in the first 8 games and only 183 times in the last 8. Make this insanity stop now.

I posted this earlier in the thread. But some people are intent on ignoring facts that don't fit their perspective.

 

[Art Vandalay]

Not ignoring the facts just you are pompus

BY SEASON GAMES CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Season Games (1-8) 129 210 1,466 61.4 6.98 51 10 8 14 82.4 36 128 3.6 14 0 Season Games (9-16) 123 183 1,652 67.2 9.03 67 16 2 19 120.3 58 361 6.2 25 4 You can't just cherry pick the games you want for your argument and just go off last year stats. If you want to say after his first 8 rookie weeks and just look at the last 8 weeks (let's ignore his monster playoffs games cause I don't want you to complain.

On a measly 366 attempts (the 183 number you love so much) 3300yards 32tds and 4picks and 720 rushing and 8 tds.....444 FF points (that's QB 1-3 range)

 

[Ghost Rider]

Seattle threw less over the last half of the season, but I think what matters is that Wilson was more effective as the season went on, which bodes well for him and Harvin. It's not like WRs on pass-happy teams are the only ones that produce at a high level.

 

[Biabreakable]

Looking at his career numbers, Harvin has 42 carries while trailing, 36 while leading, and 28 while tied. We'd need to see the breakdown of how often Minnesota was leading vs. trailing for Harvin's career, but the difference seems pretty minimal either way.

Of course, Seattle is a completely different team and will have completely different tendencies. Still, from hearing Carroll talk about Harvin, I'm skeptical that Seattle will wind up limiting his usage much, if at all. If you're worried about overworking your offensive weapon, you don't stick him on special teams. If you're worried about keeping a guy fresh for the postseason, you don't tell him he's going to field every single kickoff return. These are actions you take if you recognize that the guy is a sublime talent and you want to use him as a weapon as often as possible, in as many ways as you can.

From the sound of it, you're mostly on the same page- you expect Seattle to use Harvin like Minnesota did. We're just disagreeing over whether Seattle's leads means a slight uptick in carries, a slight downtick in carries, or no expected change in carries.

I do not think we necessarily disagree on the number of carries, upthread I see you agree with Ghost Rider that somewhere around 30 rushing attempts is the median expectation for Harvin over 16 games. 2ra/game would be 32. I happen to think this is about right. The downside would be 20ra and the upside 50ra.

My criticism of peoples projections for the number of rushing attempts for Harvin is because several posters are expecting the high mark for Harvin in rushing attempts. I think that expectation is possible but unlikely. When I read someone giving 50 projected ra that makes me think 30-70ra and there is no way I see Harvin getting 70 so 50 as a median expectation looks waaaay too high to me.

I also think Christine Michael will be good enough to compete with Harvin for some of the COP role, which could limit some of Harvins opportunity. The cubord is not nearly as empty in Seattle as it was in MN. They have other targets and I see Wilson as a QB who can spread the ball around. I think Harvin helps the other receivers and runners through constraint plays more than anything else. He will be used as a returner because he is special as a returner, this may be the best aspect of his game in fact. Harvin needs to run better routes than he has thus far to become any more involved in the passing game than he has been.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Seattle is going to stick to what works. Keep their defense fresh, run the ball, use play-action to take shots downfield. Harvin will not be a WR1 this year. He will be a valuable piece but I do not see his numbers improving to an elite level.

 

[FF Ninja]

Not ignoring the facts just you are pompus

BY SEASON GAMES CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Season Games (1-8) 129 210 1,466 61.4 6.98 51 10 8 14 82.4 36 128 3.6 14 0 Season Games (9-16) 123 183 1,652 67.2 9.03 67 16 2 19 120.3 58 361 6.2 25 4You can't just cherry pick the games you want for your argument and just go off last year stats. If you want to say after his first 8 rookie weeks and just look at the last 8 weeks (let's ignore his monster playoffs games cause I don't want you to complain.

On a measly 366 attempts (the 183 number you love so much) 3300yards 32tds and 4picks and 720 rushing and 8 tds.....444 FF points (that's QB 1-3 range)

wat?

Not cherry picking anything. They had fewer passing plays in the first half of the season vs. the 2nd half which is precisely the opposite of what was stated. Simply pointing out the facts using other peoples parameters. Sorry if you prefer your definitive statements to be erroneous. We won't bother you with the facts again.

Or will I...?

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #1

15 of 26 for 187 yards 1 TD

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #2

24 of 36 for 385 yards 2 TD 1 INT

Yes, the second game was legitimate. The first was not. But wait, during the second game Seattle never held a lead and didn't even score until almost the end of the 3rd quarter. They were down by 20 points for about half the game. Carson Palmer gets crushed by shark poolers for putting up numbers in these circumstances.

 

[Art Vandalay]

Not ignoring the facts just you are pompus

BY SEASON GAMES CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Season Games (1-8) 129 210 1,466 61.4 6.98 51 10 8 14 82.4 36 128 3.6 14 0 Season Games (9-16) 123 183 1,652 67.2 9.03 67 16 2 19 120.3 58 361 6.2 25 4You can't just cherry pick the games you want for your argument and just go off last year stats. If you want to say after his first 8 rookie weeks and just look at the last 8 weeks (let's ignore his monster playoffs games cause I don't want you to complain.

On a measly 366 attempts (the 183 number you love so much) 3300yards 32tds and 4picks and 720 rushing and 8 tds.....444 FF points (that's QB 1-3 range)

wat?

Not cherry picking anything. They had fewer passing plays in the first half of the season vs. the 2nd half which is precisely the opposite of what was stated. Simply pointing out the facts using other peoples parameters. Sorry if you prefer your definitive statements to be erroneous. We won't bother you with the facts again.

Or will I...?

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #1

15 of 26 for 187 yards 1 TD

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #2

24 of 36 for 385 yards 2 TD 1 INT

Yes, the second game was legitimate. The first was not. But wait, during the second game Seattle never held a lead and didn't even score until almost the end of the 3rd quarter. They were down by 20 points for about half the game. Carson Palmer gets crushed by shark poolers for putting up numbers in these circumstances.

and we forget about the rushing stats again...120 and 1 td over the two games

Tisk tisk,

So let's look at his last 10 games (well include the playoff games as well since you think they aren't good performances)

Yards: 2224 Td's:19 Int:3 Rush 488 Rush Td:5

Now lets divide these by 10(games) then multiply for 16 and see what we get...

Follow me...

3'558

30

3

780

8

hmmmmmmmm

 

[msudaisy26]

Seattle is going to stick to what works. Keep their defense fresh, run the ball, use play-action to take shots downfield. Harvin will not be a WR1 this year. He will be a valuable piece but I do not see his numbers improving to an elite level.

He was a top 10 receiver 2 years ago without putting up 1000 yards or 10 touchdowns, what is to say he can't/won't do it again?

 

[EBF]

Show me a team with a great NFL QB that hasn't eventually unleashed him.

A good QB is the most valuable offensive weapon in football. When you have a player like that on your team, you don't waste him by turning him into a handoff machine.

Look at Brady, Ryan, and Roethlisberger. They began their careers as game managers, but eventually became high attempt passers.

I have no doubt that Seattle will want to remain a good running team, but this will eventually morph into Wilson's offense. It might not happen this year. It will happen though.

As far as the immediate outlook is concerned, I think Harvin will have every opportunity to shine here. It's the other guys Rice, Baldwin, Harper, and Tate who will be fighting for the scraps.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

If a team has a very good QB, it is more efficient to pass than to run. Seattle's pass attempts last year were silly low. Unless Wilson is not a good QB, they will pass substantively more. Wilson is a good QB.

 

[Tau837]

Not ignoring the facts just you are pompus

BY SEASON GAMES CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Season Games (1-8) 129 210 1,466 61.4 6.98 51 10 8 14 82.4 36 128 3.6 14 0 Season Games (9-16) 123 183 1,652 67.2 9.03 67 16 2 19 120.3 58 361 6.2 25 4You can't just cherry pick the games you want for your argument and just go off last year stats. If you want to say after his first 8 rookie weeks and just look at the last 8 weeks (let's ignore his monster playoffs games cause I don't want you to complain.

On a measly 366 attempts (the 183 number you love so much) 3300yards 32tds and 4picks and 720 rushing and 8 tds.....444 FF points (that's QB 1-3 range)

wat?

Not cherry picking anything. They had fewer passing plays in the first half of the season vs. the 2nd half which is precisely the opposite of what was stated. Simply pointing out the facts using other peoples parameters. Sorry if you prefer your definitive statements to be erroneous. We won't bother you with the facts again.

Or will I...?

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #1

15 of 26 for 187 yards 1 TD

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #2

24 of 36 for 385 yards 2 TD 1 INT

Yes, the second game was legitimate. The first was not. But wait, during the second game Seattle never held a lead and didn't even score until almost the end of the 3rd quarter. They were down by 20 points for about half the game. Carson Palmer gets crushed by shark poolers for putting up numbers in these circumstances.

and we forget about the rushing stats again...120 and 1 td over the two games

Tisk tisk,

So let's look at his last 10 games (well include the playoff games as well since you think they aren't good performances)

Yards: 2224 Td's:19 Int:3 Rush 488 Rush Td:5

Now lets divide these by 10(games) then multiply for 16 and see what we get...

Follow me...

3'558

30

3

780

8

hmmmmmmmm

Do you think you are posting in the Russell Wilson player spotlight thread? What difference does Wilson's rushing make when discussing Harvin's prospects?

I project Wilson for about 450 passing attempts, which is an increase of more than 10% over last season and an increase of more than 20% over the pace set in the second half of last season. Given Seattle's strong defense and strong running game, there is little reason short of serious injuries on defense and/or in the running game to expect more.

Working from that number of attempts, it's hard to see Harvin getting much more than 120 targets. If so, it's pretty unlikely he will reach any of the loftier projections posted in this thread.

 

[Tau837]

Show me a team with a great NFL QB that hasn't eventually unleashed him.

A good QB is the most valuable offensive weapon in football. When you have a player like that on your team, you don't waste him by turning him into a handoff machine.

Look at Brady, Ryan, and Roethlisberger. They began their careers as game managers, but eventually became high attempt passers.

I have no doubt that Seattle will want to remain a good running team, but this will eventually morph into Wilson's offense. It might not happen this year. It will happen though.

As far as the immediate outlook is concerned, I think Harvin will have every opportunity to shine here. It's the other guys Rice, Baldwin, Harper, and Tate who will be fighting for the scraps.

Eventually is the key word in your post. I agree that year over year for the foreseeable future, there will be a gradual shift to more passing attempts.

But relying on the running game and defense is a huge part of the current team's identity. Given that it was extremely successful last season, there is literally no reason for the Seahawks to change that formula substantially in 2013, unless something currently unforeseen happens, like significant injuries on defense or in the running game.

Wilson is great. But he excelled - and Seattle excelled - without many passing attempts last season. The team went 7-1 and averaged 34 ppg in the last 8 regular season games last season, while Wilson attempted just 183 passes - less than 23 passes per game. It is possible to have a high quality passing game without it being a high quantity passing game.

I will also note that I watched nearly all of Wilson's college games, since he played his first three seasons at my alma mater. His natural tendency is to spread the ball around rather than to lock in on a specific target. Naturally, the most talented players will get more targets than the others, because they will get open more than the others. But there will be no Brandon Marshall effect here.

I also think people are forgetting how talented Sidney Rice is, and failing to realize how good he will be with the opposing team now doubling or using their best cover corner on Harvin rather than on him. Similarly, Golden Tate as the #3 is also being underrated.

 

[EBF]

Show me a team with a great NFL QB that hasn't eventually unleashed him.

A good QB is the most valuable offensive weapon in football. When you have a player like that on your team, you don't waste him by turning him into a handoff machine.

Look at Brady, Ryan, and Roethlisberger. They began their careers as game managers, but eventually became high attempt passers.

I have no doubt that Seattle will want to remain a good running team, but this will eventually morph into Wilson's offense. It might not happen this year. It will happen though.

As far as the immediate outlook is concerned, I think Harvin will have every opportunity to shine here. It's the other guys Rice, Baldwin, Harper, and Tate who will be fighting for the scraps.

Eventually is the key word in your post. I agree that year over year for the foreseeable future, there will be a gradual shift to more passing attempts.

But relying on the running game and defense is a huge part of the current team's identity. Given that it was extremely successful last season, there is literally no reason for the Seahawks to change that formula substantially in 2013, unless something currently unforeseen happens, like significant injuries on defense or in the running game.

Wilson is great. But he excelled - and Seattle excelled - without many passing attempts last season. The team went 7-1 and averaged 34 ppg in the last 8 regular season games last season, while Wilson attempted just 183 passes - less than 23 passes per game. It is possible to have a high quality passing game without it being a high quantity passing game.

I will also note that I watched nearly all of Wilson's college games, since he played his first three seasons at my alma mater. His natural tendency is to spread the ball around rather than to lock in on a specific target. Naturally, the most talented players will get more targets than the others, because they will get open more than the others. But there will be no Brandon Marshall effect here.

I also think people are forgetting how talented Sidney Rice is, and failing to realize how good he will be with the opposing team now doubling or using their best cover corner on Harvin rather than on him. Similarly, Golden Tate as the #3 is also being underrated.

I agree with all of this. I am higher on Wilson for dynasty purposes than for redraft.

I am really curious to see what the non-Harvin receivers on the rosters can do this year. Tate was pretty spectacular in terms of yards-per-target last season. Rice could do better with more looks too and Baldwin is a solid player, if not a great FF prospect. I also like the rookie WR they drafted and I think he brings a different skill set compared to their other guys.

Wilson certainly won't lack for weapons. I even like Seattle's RB draft picks.

 

[Biabreakable]

JWB. I totally agree that Harvin is going to help Rice and the running game a lot. Rice could do similarly well as he did with Favre/Harvin before which would be something like 1k yards and 8TD. If healthy I see Rice getting a nice effective piece of the pie like that again. Harvin will likely lead the team in targets and PPG(as long as you get points for return stats) but I see Rice more likely being the yardage and TD leader of their receivers. The TE and RB will still be involved as well as Tate and possibly Harper. I do think Harvin hurts Tate the most as he will likely take targets Tate might otherwise get. I do not see this offense or Wilson needing to force feed targets to Harvin the way the Vikings did with their 2nd best option being a 2nd year TE or Jenkins.

The drafting of Michael in the 2nd round and Spencer Ware in the 6th sends a strong message I think about the Seahags commitment to running the ball. I think Michael adds a speed element as well as future feature RB potential that will allow them to do some things in the running game they might not call for Lynch. Ware seems like a direct backup for Lynch. The team has Turbin who did alright as well.

So while I do see the offense becoming more balanced (added 2WR and 2HB in the draft, weapons for Wilson) I still expect a lot of rushing attempts in 2013. Close to a 50/50 split between PA/RA. In 2014 things may open up to more of a 60/40 split if Wilson keeps improving, but this team is going to keep running the ball.

eta- not sure why I mixed up Tolbert and Turbin. Guess the similarity of the name spelling. The mind does strange things some times.

 

[FF Ninja]

Not ignoring the facts just you are pompus

BY SEASON GAMES CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Season Games (1-8) 129 210 1,466 61.4 6.98 51 10 8 14 82.4 36 128 3.6 14 0 Season Games (9-16) 123 183 1,652 67.2 9.03 67 16 2 19 120.3 58 361 6.2 25 4You can't just cherry pick the games you want for your argument and just go off last year stats. If you want to say after his first 8 rookie weeks and just look at the last 8 weeks (let's ignore his monster playoffs games cause I don't want you to complain.

On a measly 366 attempts (the 183 number you love so much) 3300yards 32tds and 4picks and 720 rushing and 8 tds.....444 FF points (that's QB 1-3 range)

wat?

Not cherry picking anything. They had fewer passing plays in the first half of the season vs. the 2nd half which is precisely the opposite of what was stated. Simply pointing out the facts using other peoples parameters. Sorry if you prefer your definitive statements to be erroneous. We won't bother you with the facts again.

Or will I...?

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #1

15 of 26 for 187 yards 1 TD

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #2

24 of 36 for 385 yards 2 TD 1 INT

Yes, the second game was legitimate. The first was not. But wait, during the second game Seattle never held a lead and didn't even score until almost the end of the 3rd quarter. They were down by 20 points for about half the game. Carson Palmer gets crushed by shark poolers for putting up numbers in these circumstances.

and we forget about the rushing stats again...120 and 1 td over the two games

Tisk tisk,

So let's look at his last 10 games (well include the playoff games as well since you think they aren't good performances)

Yards: 2224 Td's:19 Int:3 Rush 488 Rush Td:5

Now lets divide these by 10(games) then multiply for 16 and see what we get...

Follow me...

3'558

30

3

780

8

hmmmmmmmm

Again... wat?

You seem a bit lost here, so follow me...

We are talking about WIlson's passing BECAUSE WE'RE IN THE PERCY HARVIN THREAD.

Percy Harvin owners don't give a turd if Wilson rushes for 300 yards a game. Only his passing stats matter. The fact remains that Wilson only had 183 passing attempts in the last 8 games of the season - completely dispelling the bizarre notion that he threw more often as he got comfortable with the offense. I'm personally projecting Wilson to throw the ball 450 times next year (225 times per 8 games), which would be 23% more often than he threw in the last 8 games - in those 8 games the team went 7-1, so I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if they don't make a shift away from running and towards passing. There is no motivating factor.

In wins, Wilson threw the ball less than 23 times. In losses, he threw the ball 30 times. Even if they lost every game, that would only be 480 attempts.

If Seattle spreads the ball around at all (i.e. they don't force it to Harvin like Cutler/Marshall) then it will be nearly impossible for Harvin to live up to his ADP.

 

[Art Vandalay]

Not ignoring the facts just you are pompus

BY SEASON GAMES CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Season Games (1-8) 129 210 1,466 61.4 6.98 51 10 8 14 82.4 36 128 3.6 14 0 Season Games (9-16) 123 183 1,652 67.2 9.03 67 16 2 19 120.3 58 361 6.2 25 4You can't just cherry pick the games you want for your argument and just go off last year stats. If you want to say after his first 8 rookie weeks and just look at the last 8 weeks (let's ignore his monster playoffs games cause I don't want you to complain.

On a measly 366 attempts (the 183 number you love so much) 3300yards 32tds and 4picks and 720 rushing and 8 tds.....444 FF points (that's QB 1-3 range)

wat?

Not cherry picking anything. They had fewer passing plays in the first half of the season vs. the 2nd half which is precisely the opposite of what was stated. Simply pointing out the facts using other peoples parameters. Sorry if you prefer your definitive statements to be erroneous. We won't bother you with the facts again.

Or will I...?

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #1

15 of 26 for 187 yards 1 TD

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #2

24 of 36 for 385 yards 2 TD 1 INT

Yes, the second game was legitimate. The first was not. But wait, during the second game Seattle never held a lead and didn't even score until almost the end of the 3rd quarter. They were down by 20 points for about half the game. Carson Palmer gets crushed by shark poolers for putting up numbers in these circumstances.

and we forget about the rushing stats again...120 and 1 td over the two games

Tisk tisk,

So let's look at his last 10 games (well include the playoff games as well since you think they aren't good performances)

Yards: 2224 Td's:19 Int:3 Rush 488 Rush Td:5

Now lets divide these by 10(games) then multiply for 16 and see what we get...

Follow me...

3'558

30

3

780

8

hmmmmmmmm

Again... wat?

You seem a bit lost here, so follow me...

We are talking about WIlson's passing BECAUSE WE'RE IN THE PERCY HARVIN THREAD.

Percy Harvin owners don't give a turd if Wilson rushes for 300 yards a game. Only his passing stats matter. The fact remains that Wilson only had 183 passing attempts in the last 8 games of the season - completely dispelling the bizarre notion that he threw more often as he got comfortable with the offense. I'm personally projecting Wilson to throw the ball 450 times next year (225 times per 8 games), which would be 23% more often than he threw in the last 8 games - in those 8 games the team went 7-1, so I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if they don't make a shift away from running and towards passing. There is no motivating factor.

In wins, Wilson threw the ball less than 23 times. In losses, he threw the ball 30 times. Even if they lost every game, that would only be 480 attempts.

If Seattle spreads the ball around at all (i.e. they don't force it to Harvin like Cutler/Marshall) then it will be nearly impossible for Harvin to live up to his ADP.

I think you will see plenty of extra pass attempt this year on screens and options at the line of scrimmage which will provide an extension of the run game and bump the pass attempts up. Ponder attempted 262 to 221 in his splits which align with Harvin in the line-up. More throws when they have a higher completion percentage he actually had 114 passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage last year and that was without Harvin for a large portion of the game. He is a unique weapon and defies your usual logic.

 

[Air Stich]

Harvin's current ADP is WR9 at FFC.com. In a recent $$$ draft, I was able to get him in the 4th round after 13 other WRs had gone off the board, including Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, VJax, and Victor Cruz. I don't think the 4th round is that unrealistic given how RB hungry everyone is.

My projections are based more upon the development of Russel Wilson and Seattle trying to feature Harvin.

85 catches, 1100 yards, 8 TDs

25 carries, 125 yards 1 TD

1 Return TD

 

[ldizzle]

Not ignoring the facts just you are pompus

BY SEASON GAMES CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Season Games (1-8) 129 210 1,466 61.4 6.98 51 10 8 14 82.4 36 128 3.6 14 0 Season Games (9-16) 123 183 1,652 67.2 9.03 67 16 2 19 120.3 58 361 6.2 25 4You can't just cherry pick the games you want for your argument and just go off last year stats. If you want to say after his first 8 rookie weeks and just look at the last 8 weeks (let's ignore his monster playoffs games cause I don't want you to complain.

On a measly 366 attempts (the 183 number you love so much) 3300yards 32tds and 4picks and 720 rushing and 8 tds.....444 FF points (that's QB 1-3 range)

wat?

Not cherry picking anything. They had fewer passing plays in the first half of the season vs. the 2nd half which is precisely the opposite of what was stated. Simply pointing out the facts using other peoples parameters. Sorry if you prefer your definitive statements to be erroneous. We won't bother you with the facts again.

Or will I...?

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #1

15 of 26 for 187 yards 1 TD

MONSTER PLAYOFF GAME #2

24 of 36 for 385 yards 2 TD 1 INT

Yes, the second game was legitimate. The first was not. But wait, during the second game Seattle never held a lead and didn't even score until almost the end of the 3rd quarter. They were down by 20 points for about half the game. Carson Palmer gets crushed by shark poolers for putting up numbers in these circumstances.

and we forget about the rushing stats again...120 and 1 td over the two games

Tisk tisk,

So let's look at his last 10 games (well include the playoff games as well since you think they aren't good performances)

Yards: 2224 Td's:19 Int:3 Rush 488 Rush Td:5

Now lets divide these by 10(games) then multiply for 16 and see what we get...

Follow me...

3'558

30

3

780

8

hmmmmmmmm

Again... wat?

You seem a bit lost here, so follow me...

We are talking about WIlson's passing BECAUSE WE'RE IN THE PERCY HARVIN THREAD.

Percy Harvin owners don't give a turd if Wilson rushes for 300 yards a game. Only his passing stats matter. The fact remains that Wilson only had 183 passing attempts in the last 8 games of the season - completely dispelling the bizarre notion that he threw more often as he got comfortable with the offense. I'm personally projecting Wilson to throw the ball 450 times next year (225 times per 8 games), which would be 23% more often than he threw in the last 8 games - in those 8 games the team went 7-1, so I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if they don't make a shift away from running and towards passing. There is no motivating factor.

In wins, Wilson threw the ball less than 23 times. In losses, he threw the ball 30 times. Even if they lost every game, that would only be 480 attempts.

If Seattle spreads the ball around at all (i.e. they don't force it to Harvin like Cutler/Marshall) then it will be nearly impossible for Harvin to live up to his ADP.

I think you will see plenty of extra pass attempt this year on screens and options at the line of scrimmage which will provide an extension of the run game and bump the pass attempts up. Ponder attempted 262 to 221 in his splits which align with Harvin in the line-up. More throws when they have a higher completion percentage he actually had 114 passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage last year and that was without Harvin for a large portion of the game. He is a unique weapon and defies your usual logic.

give it up. (bring up wilsons rushing stats again, that'll win em over )

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

75/900/5 receiving

20/140/1 rushing

That seems about right.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

The Hawks went out and got him. They will keep him happy by feeding him. If he stays healthy expect better numbers than when he was in Minny...the main reason is bigger plays. Wilson will be able to buy time and throw down the field, something that Ponder could not do.

Yes but Rice and Tate will be the guys he is throwing deep to, not Harvin. He's not now, nor will he ever be, a deep threat.

 

[ImTheScientist]

The Hawks went out and got him. They will keep him happy by feeding him. If he stays healthy expect better numbers than when he was in Minny...the main reason is bigger plays. Wilson will be able to buy time and throw down the field, something that Ponder could not do.

Yes but Rice and Tate will be the guys he is throwing deep to, not Harvin. He's not now, nor will he ever be, a deep threat.

A guys with his speed isn't a deep threat?

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

The Hawks went out and got him. They will keep him happy by feeding him. If he stays healthy expect better numbers than when he was in Minny...the main reason is bigger plays. Wilson will be able to buy time and throw down the field, something that Ponder could not do.

Yes but Rice and Tate will be the guys he is throwing deep to, not Harvin. He's not now, nor will he ever be, a deep threat.

A guys with his speed isn't a deep threat?

No. He is not going to be catching bombs over the top. Not his skill set, and never has been. In fact, he has looked out if his element in the very few times I've seen him try to reel in a deep ball. Check your highlights reeks and see if you can find a single bomb to Harvin. They don't exist.

 

[Man of Zen]

I think people are overvaluing Russ Wilson's "history" in determining what the SEA offensive balance will look like this year. We're talking about a rookie QB, on a team whose RB way surpassed expectations, whose defense was one of the most stalwart in the league, whose receivers were atrocious, and who were probably shocked to find themselves in playoff position toward the end of the year.

Any coach would have been insane under the circumstances to open the passing offense up for his QB.

But their offseason suggests they want to do exactly that to at least some degree. Which makes sense. Wilson has shown he can play in this league, and all things considered, more balance on offense is better than less. Add to which (if you want to play the history angle), it would be atypical for them to be able to ride Lynch to that kind of high volume, season-long production again.

I think if SEA is going to be at all successful, you've got to assume an uptick in Wilson's numbers, a downtick in Lynch's, and that extra passing production would have to come from someplace.

I feel like Harvin is in excellent position to produce as a WR1, and people thinking SEA is going to push a 60/40 run-heavy balance are betting against the evidence.

 

[silentcoach]

It's always tough to predict how wrs will do on different teams. You have Moss going to Oakland, bust. You have Moss going to New England, boom. You have Price going to Atlanta, bust. You have Owens going to Philadelphia and Dallas, boom.

People pointing at Wilson should be ecstatic that Harvin gets a better QB to work with. Wilson is better than Ponder? I think so.

The issue will be opportunity and this is something that we really cannot gauge right now. We can guess, but it is just that, guessing. I will be interested to see how they use him in preseason. We already know that Wilson will not have TOO many pass targets (at the very least you cannot predict a huge increase in passing stats) but how those targets will be distributed is a question mark because we do not know how Harvin will be used.

Is Harvin a talent? Yes.

Is Wilson a good qb? Yes.

Will the opportunity be there? I don't know.

He is worth a top 10 wr pick but I am not sure If i would take him or RWhite in a ppr league right now. I need to look into this a little more.

 

[CapnJB]

Check your highlights reeks and see if you can find a single bomb to Harvin. They don't exist.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d82481530/Harvin-s-huge-TD-catch

 

[Biabreakable]

Check your highlights reeks and see if you can find a single bomb to Harvin. They don't exist.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d82481530/Harvin-s-huge-TD-catch

That is one of the 2 or 3 passes Ponder has completed over 20 yards in his career.

With Bevell and Brett Favre Harvin was still young, but for the most part they worked Harvin on the underneath routes while Rice did more of the deep routes. Same coordinator same WR duo I expect more of the same types of plays.

It is a easy argument to say Wilson is better than Ponder, but is Wilson better than Favre? I am not seeing a lot of reason to expect Harvins numbers to improve from what was already a pretty good situation for him. tbh I think Harvin is a bit spoiled because he got to work with Favre right away as a rookie and he saw how little respect Favre had for the Vikings coaching staff and that snowballed.

Harvin is going to have to become a better route runner as the only way I see him improving on his already very good numbers. If he does that then I think he will have a long a productive career. If he does not then he is more of a risk of an early fade when some of his sick speed begins to fade after 30.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Check your highlights reeks and see if you can find a single bomb to Harvin. They don't exist.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d82481530/Harvin-s-huge-TD-catch

A 39 yard catch in the back of the end zone is a bomb now? That's the best you got?

I'll need a catch over the top in which he doesn't immediately fall down, to qualify. Let's say 40+ yards.

 

[Art Vandalay]

Check your highlights reeks and see if you can find a single bomb to Harvin. They don't exist.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d82481530/Harvin-s-huge-TD-catch

A 39 yard catch in the back of the end zone is a bomb now? That's the best you got?

I'll need a catch over the top in which he doesn't immediately fall down, to qualify. Let's say 40+ yards.

Ok your wish is my command...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCXmWPnREZE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riIVgn9h9d0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-fERGyi4Os

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize a WR with NFL talent can catch a ball and when you have the strength and speed of harvin you can probably get by defenders as well. They might not be traditional deep shots but as a rookie you don't always get those looks if there is an established player with that role on the team. The Vikings didn't use him in that manner doesn't mean the skills aren't there

 

[ImTheScientist]

Check your highlights reeks and see if you can find a single bomb to Harvin. They don't exist.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d82481530/Harvin-s-huge-TD-catch

A 39 yard catch in the back of the end zone is a bomb now? That's the best you got?

I'll need a catch over the top in which he doesn't immediately fall down, to qualify. Let's say 40+ yards.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap1000000077863/Harvin-45-yard-catch

 

[Man of Zen]

Check your highlights reeks and see if you can find a single bomb to Harvin. They don't exist.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d82481530/Harvin-s-huge-TD-catch

A 39 yard catch in the back of the end zone is a bomb now?

Seriously? Pretty much every ball chucked 55+ yards in the air is a bomb by almost anyone's definition. There have been good NFL QB's who would have struggled to chuck it that far.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Harvin winds up on the PUP list, rumors on twitter: possibly a slightly torn labrum.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

@AdamSchefter: WR Percy Harvin's hip injury is problematic. He is scheduled to get a second opinion and there is concern about the injury.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

This is looking like a potentially horrible trade for Seattle if Harvin is lost to hip surgery.

 

[sho nuff]

That freakin sucks...

 

[King of the Jungle]

Crabtree down, Harvin down.....Rams starting to gain some momentum.

Really a bummer if this is serious as he was going to be a lot of fun to watch in that offense.

 

[traderallenpoe]

Glad I sent this gimp packin with Ridley for megatron last month... I'm bullish on Harvin's talent, but even if he comes back from this I think there's some kind of intangible "fragility factor" about him that puts him in the same camp as McFadden... Freak athletes w/ delicate frames. I love the way he plays and hes one of the most exciting players in football when he's healthy, so I'll be rooting for him and a speedy recovery, but I can't say I'll be missing him on my dynasty team.

 

[Shutout]

Roto blurb

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll acknowledged Thursday that Percy Harvin may need surgery to repair the tear in his hip labrum.
Harvin is scheduled for a second opinion next week, but the early signs appear grim. The second opinion, in all likelihood, will confirm Harvin's need for surgery. Carroll is typically pretty vague on injury situations, but he was revealing in this case and we don't take that as a good sign. Should Harvin miss regular season time -- and that's now a very real possibility -- the Seahawks' three-receiver set would be Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin.

 

[EBF]

How long might he be out if this requires surgery?

Bummer for Harvin and Wilson. Arrow up for the other SEA receivers. I would think Tate and Baldwin would benefit most from his absence.

Curious to see if Harper can make any waves in training camp.

 

[Shutout]

How long might he be out if this requires surgery?

Bummer for Harvin and Wilson. Arrow up for the other SEA receivers. I would think Tate and Baldwin would benefit most from his absence.

Curious to see if Harper can make any waves in training camp.

Ah, yeah. Chris Harper. I'm interested in that too (for completely selfish ff dynasty stash reasons).

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Check your highlights reeks and see if you can find a single bomb to Harvin. They don't exist.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d82481530/Harvin-s-huge-TD-catch

A 39 yard catch in the back of the end zone is a bomb now? That's the best you got?

I'll need a catch over the top in which he doesn't immediately fall down, to qualify. Let's say 40+ yards.

Ok your wish is my command...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCXmWPnREZE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riIVgn9h9d0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-fERGyi4Os

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize a WR with NFL talent can catch a ball and when you have the strength and speed of harvin you can probably get by defenders as well. They might not be traditional deep shots but as a rookie you don't always get those looks if there is an established player with that role on the team. The Vikings didn't use him in that manner doesn't mean the skills aren't there

Wow. Talk about reaching. A busted coverage, a crossing route, and...college game tape? lmao. That's the best you have? Still not a deep threat.

 

[Alkahsu]

Check your highlights reeks and see if you can find a single bomb to Harvin. They don't exist.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d82481530/Harvin-s-huge-TD-catch

A 39 yard catch in the back of the end zone is a bomb now? That's the best you got?I'll need a catch over the top in which he doesn't immediately fall down, to qualify. Let's say 40+ yards.

Ok your wish is my command...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCXmWPnREZE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riIVgn9h9d0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-fERGyi4Os

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize a WR with NFL talent can catch a ball and when you have the strength and speed of harvin you can probably get by defenders as well. They might not be traditional deep shots but as a rookie you don't always get those looks if there is an established player with that role on the team. The Vikings didn't use him in that manner doesn't mean the skills aren't there

Wow. Talk about reaching. A busted coverage, a crossing route, and...college game tape? lmao. That's the best you have? Still not a deep threat.

Just give up. He's provided what you asked for and you keep making excuses.

 

[Keith Lewis]

Is Harvin out for the season?

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Check your highlights reeks and see if you can find a single bomb to Harvin. They don't exist.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d82481530/Harvin-s-huge-TD-catch

A 39 yard catch in the back of the end zone is a bomb now? That's the best you got?I'll need a catch over the top in which he doesn't immediately fall down, to qualify. Let's say 40+ yards.

Ok your wish is my command...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCXmWPnREZE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riIVgn9h9d0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-fERGyi4Os

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize a WR with NFL talent can catch a ball and when you have the strength and speed of harvin you can probably get by defenders as well. They might not be traditional deep shots but as a rookie you don't always get those looks if there is an established player with that role on the team. The Vikings didn't use him in that manner doesn't mean the skills aren't there

Wow. Talk about reaching. A busted coverage, a crossing route, and...college game tape? lmao. That's the best you have? Still not a deep threat.

Just give up. He's provided what you asked for and you keep making excuses.

Really? Because I ask for highlights that proved he could catch balls over the top and not fall down. He didn't even supply ONE such highlight.

 

[MechEng]

Is he out for season or is there a chance he could come back? Can't find the answer.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Is he out for season or is there a chance he could come back? Can't find the answer.

Team expects him back. Most likely timetable is sometime around Thanksgiving, letting him spend the last month of the season getting back into the flow of things and then hopefully having him back to normal by the playoffs.

 

[msudaisy26]

Is he out for season or is there a chance he could come back? Can't find the answer.

Team expects him back. Most likely timetable is sometime around Thanksgiving, letting him spend the last month of the season getting back into the flow of things and then hopefully having him back to normal by the playoffs.

For fantasy purposes he is out for the year. Even if he comes back for the fantasy playoffs who is going to play a guy that is still working into game shape, and will probably be limited to the number of snaps he will see.

I guess if you have a toilet bowl that awards draft picks or money for losing you might play him

 

[Adam Harstad]

Is he out for season or is there a chance he could come back? Can't find the answer.

Team expects him back. Most likely timetable is sometime around Thanksgiving, letting him spend the last month of the season getting back into the flow of things and then hopefully having him back to normal by the playoffs.

For fantasy purposes he is out for the year. Even if he comes back for the fantasy playoffs who is going to play a guy that is still working into game shape, and will probably be limited to the number of snaps he will see.

I guess if you have a toilet bowl that awards draft picks or money for losing you might play him

Timetables that far out are always a crapshoot. Maybe he's back by week 12, and we get to see him play before deciding whether to start him in the fantasy playoffs. Maybe he's back in week 17, or he never makes it back at all.

At this point, though, I'd think long and hard about burning a roster spot on him for 12+ weeks, especially in leagues with shorter benches. In a deep league, he makes a fine flyer in 18th or 20th round.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I am gonna let Harvin sit on my bench all year in a league where we start 10 and have 18 total. Might be tough at times, especially one particular week (because of byes), but I think it is worth it.