Player Spotlight: R. Cobb, J. Jones, J. Nelson, WRs, GB Packers (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

90+ catches is realistic for him as a focal point in this offense.

What % of the offensive snaps do you expect him to be on the field?

When/if healthy,

85-95% of 3+ WR formations.

35-65% of 2 WR formations. This is the big ???, I know. I think if he gets to 50% he'll hit 90 catches, and if he gets to 65+% he'll get 100+ catches. JMHO.

This is my concern. I'd expect close to 100% of the 3 WR sets, but not many snaps in traditional 2WR sets. Maybe 60-65% of the total offensive snaps.

I don't see 100 catch potential, if this is the case. Only 5 WRs caught 100 balls last year (only 2 in 2011, and 2 in 2010), and all of them were in on 90%+ of their teams snaps. All 5 got between 28-39% of their teams targets. Cobb got 17% last year.

He caught 5.5 balls/game last year, playing an increased role with Jennings and Jordy missing time. I think that is his absolute ceiling, assuming health, for 2013. I think 80 is realistic and would be a very good number for him.

We'll see what GB can do to get him the ball more, and of course I could very easily be wrong. But, again, the math isn't adding up to me.

I don't disagree with your rationale. Cobb is hedged in my league though by his return stats. If he isn't the primary offensive target, then he'll be more likely to be used extensively on returns. 90-100 balls is his upside, not his floor, but his return usage probably would suffer in that scenario, so there would be some washing of fantasy points. I love this type of player though. The talented returner who is also blossoming as a WR on a team with a strong QB (the best IMO).

 

[Bigboy10182000]

@TyDunne: McCarthy: Jordy Nelson had procedure done on knee. Out rest of training camp. Hope is to be ready for season opener.

@TyDunne: McCarthy: Randall Cobb had injury to his bicep in practice.

 

[Billy Bats]

I'm not well versed in the Packers receiving corps, I seem to have lost my way. Part of me is shocked to see Cobb ranked so high in most WR rankings, is he really two rounds better than Jordy? Is he a guaranteed 75-80 catch WR or is everyone a little bit too excited about Randall? Teach me some things about the GB WR's. TIA.

 

[shadyridr]

I'm not well versed in the Packers receiving corps, I seem to have lost my way. Part of me is shocked to see Cobb ranked so high in most WR rankings, is he really two rounds better than Jordy? Is he a guaranteed 75-80 catch WR or is everyone a little bit too excited about Randall? Teach me some things about the GB WR's. TIA.

jordy was hurt

 

[Beerguzzler]

Reason Cobb is ranked so high is he will be in the running to grab 100 balls this year - according to Rodgers and McCarthy at least. He's a matchup nightmare and only improving.

 

[resko99]

I like Cobb's upside, but if Jordy stays healthy he's going to be the top scoring FF WR in Green Bay this year, even in PPR leagues.

 

[Billy Bats]

Reason Cobb is ranked so high is he will be in the running to grab 100 balls this year - according to Rodgers and McCarthy at least. He's a matchup nightmare and only improving.

Haven't heard that one. Pretty high expectations from those two, I guess I need to start taking him seriously. Back to the research.

 

[Billy Bats]

I like Cobb's upside, but if Jordy stays healthy he's going to be the top scoring FF WR in Green Bay this year, even in PPR leagues.

That was my perception going into my draft prep, but everywhere I look it's all about Cobb. I knew Jordy was hurt, even still I was shocked to see him going a full two rounds later than Randall. Is that all due to the injury concern? I mean I'm seeing guys like Austin ranked ahead of him which can't possibly be.

 

[az_prof]

I like Cobb's upside, but if Jordy stays healthy he's going to be the top scoring FF WR in Green Bay this year, even in PPR leagues.

That was my perception going into my draft prep, but everywhere I look it's all about Cobb. I knew Jordy was hurt, even still I was shocked to see him going a full two rounds later than Randall. Is that all due to the injury concern? I mean I'm seeing guys like Austin ranked ahead of him which can't possibly be.

I think the Cobb/Jordy situation is similar to the situation a few years ago in Dallas with Dez/Austin. There is a lot of buzz about the younger player because he flashes superior physical talent. But Jordy is talented too and I wouldn't be surprised to see him lead the team in receiving this year. This year, next year, or the year after, I expect Cobb to supplant him.

I will note that even last year Cobb exceeded Jordy on a fantasy points per game basis (so missed games are not included):

Jordy: 13.9 points/game

Cobb: 16.1 points/game

 

[resko99]

I like Cobb's upside, but if Jordy stays healthy he's going to be the top scoring FF WR in Green Bay this year, even in PPR leagues.

That was my perception going into my draft prep, but everywhere I look it's all about Cobb. I knew Jordy was hurt, even still I was shocked to see him going a full two rounds later than Randall. Is that all due to the injury concern? I mean I'm seeing guys like Austin ranked ahead of him which can't possibly be.

Maybe, but Jordy is back to practice now, and you can still draft him 2-3 rounds later than Cobb. I'm buying everywhere that I can.

 

[resko99]

I like Cobb's upside, but if Jordy stays healthy he's going to be the top scoring FF WR in Green Bay this year, even in PPR leagues.

That was my perception going into my draft prep, but everywhere I look it's all about Cobb. I knew Jordy was hurt, even still I was shocked to see him going a full two rounds later than Randall. Is that all due to the injury concern? I mean I'm seeing guys like Austin ranked ahead of him which can't possibly be.

I think the Cobb/Jordy situation is similar to the situation a few years ago in Dallas with Dez/Austin. There is a lot of buzz about the younger player because he flashes superior physical talent. But Jordy is talented too and I wouldn't be surprised to see him lead the team in receiving this year. This year, next year, or the year after, I expect Cobb to supplant him.

I will note that even last year Cobb exceeded Jordy on a fantasy points per game basis (so missed games are not included):

Jordy: 13.9 points/game

Cobb: 16.1 points/game

The numbers are a little misleading IMO, Jordy was struggling while playing through injury last year. Prior to the injury he was a top 10 WR in PPR.

 

[BWill]

What about James Jones?
Any Projections?

I could see 800-1100 and 10 TDs

 

[RBM]

I like Cobb's upside, but if Jordy stays healthy he's going to be the top scoring FF WR in Green Bay this year, even in PPR leagues.

That was my perception going into my draft prep, but everywhere I look it's all about Cobb. I knew Jordy was hurt, even still I was shocked to see him going a full two rounds later than Randall. Is that all due to the injury concern? I mean I'm seeing guys like Austin ranked ahead of him which can't possibly be.

I think the Cobb/Jordy situation is similar to the situation a few years ago in Dallas with Dez/Austin. There is a lot of buzz about the younger player because he flashes superior physical talent. But Jordy is talented too and I wouldn't be surprised to see him lead the team in receiving this year. This year, next year, or the year after, I expect Cobb to supplant him.I will note that even last year Cobb exceeded Jordy on a fantasy points per game basis (so missed games are not included):

Jordy: 13.9 points/game

Cobb: 16.1 points/game

Don't see the similarity at all. I think Jordy is a more talented all around wr than Cobb. Austin was never close to Dez in talent.

 

[RBM]

What about James Jones?

Any Projections?

I could see 800-1100 and 10 TDs

65-720-7

 

[jonboltz]

I like Cobb's upside, but if Jordy stays healthy he's going to be the top scoring FF WR in Green Bay this year, even in PPR leagues.

That was my perception going into my draft prep, but everywhere I look it's all about Cobb. I knew Jordy was hurt, even still I was shocked to see him going a full two rounds later than Randall. Is that all due to the injury concern? I mean I'm seeing guys like Austin ranked ahead of him which can't possibly be.

I think the Cobb/Jordy situation is similar to the situation a few years ago in Dallas with Dez/Austin. There is a lot of buzz about the younger player because he flashes superior physical talent. But Jordy is talented too and I wouldn't be surprised to see him lead the team in receiving this year. This year, next year, or the year after, I expect Cobb to supplant him.

I will note that even last year Cobb exceeded Jordy on a fantasy points per game basis (so missed games are not included):

Jordy: 13.9 points/game

Cobb: 16.1 points/game

You are counting two games in which Jordy played a total of 8-9 plays. In games that didn't include anyone getting injured:

Jordy 16.55

Cobb 15.71 (don't know where you got 16.1 from)

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Nelson:

He returned to practice last Monday, and a league source tells PFT that Nelson will be available to play in Week One at San Francisco.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/03/jordy-nelson-is-good-to-go-for-week-one/

 

[Air Stich]

I'm starting him in week one with moderate confidence.

 

[HurryUpSundays]

Folks starting Jordy with confidence? If not who you plugging in for him?

 

[pollardsvision]

Folks starting Jordy with confidence? If not who you plugging in for him?

I'm starting him over Shorts in my main league (and Hilton/Givens).

I expect some good things from him this season, though I'm not terribly confident about today.

Jordy's kind of a flag-plant player for me this year, and as much as I like Shorts, I really, really hate relying on a Gabbert/Henne WR. He was a cheap keeper in that league, and I didn't target or acquire him in any other league (not buying into the belief that he'll be a somewhat reliable low WR2/high WR3).

Starting Jordy over Austin and Britt in another league.

 

[jurrassic]

I think Nelson is going to have a big year. In a somewhat injury plagued season last year he still put up 745 and 7. Lacy and a stronger threat of a running game should open up the deep pass for Nelson more often this year. That said, the only concern with week 1 is the injury factor. I am starting him but if you had a player of comparable value, I could see waiting a week on Nelson. I'll predict 4 for 65 and a td