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Player Spotlight: Steve Smith (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: Steve Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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Steve Smith is an excellent talent, but due to the current back-up QB situation in Carolina and the fact that Jake Delhomme is coming off Tommy John surgery, there is no way that you can make a projection for him at this point.

 
I agree with the other two. Projection: N/A

I've been a Smith owner the past 2 seasons, and I may be done playing that game. Although I am slightly excited to see what Matt Moore can do with a training camp. Last year he came over from Dallas' PS...

I'll guess though: 85 1050 7 (I won't be owning him this year)

 
If quarterbacks recover like pitchers do from Tommy John surgery then Jake Delhomme could actually be a better quarterback after the procedure. That certainly helps Steve Smith.

In pretty much the worst-case scenario for Steve Smith (Carr at QB, injury, etc.) he still put up 87-1002-7. I don't think it'll be that bad this season regardless of how much Delhomme plays. And there's always the chance that Delhomme is healthy and Steve Smith returns to being that fantasy beast that we know he can be.

Steve Smith is a medium-risk/high-reward player. He could be anywhere from a top-20 wide receiver at worst (barring injury of course) to the #1 receiver at best. He's getting drafted a little higher than I'd like but for a player that can win a league for you he just might be worth it.

 
Feast or famine. He was tremendous with Delhomme and horrid without him. In the two games Delhomme was healthy Smith avg'd 25.65 fpts (not that he'd keep that level up) and the remaining 13 games he averaged 7.5 fpts/game (which ranks around 36th on a ppg basis). As things become clearer with Delhomme as the season approaches I'll re-evaluate but right now I wouldn't touch him.

 
Delhomme seems like he is recovering well. And correct me if i'm wrong but they have added another potential RB1 in Stewart, a WR2 in Muhammed, and a WR3 in DJ Hackett, plus Jarrett will be another year mature. they drafted a LT...this offense should be a lot lot better and I see Carolina winnin the NFC South division for what it is worth. I see Smith as a steal considering he was a consensus #1 a couple of years ago.

100 receptions

1400 yds

10 TD

Nice to have you back Steve, we missed you.

 
Before I start this post I want to make it clear I am a Panthers homer. With that said I think the Panthers are in for a good year. Carr is gone which can only help and Jake is looking good in the preseason. With the additions made in the offseason I feel this team is ready to put up some good numbers. The only thing that could hold S. Smith back is a renewed emphasis on the run for the Panthers. Fox wants to go back to the run first pass second mentality. Even with this though Smith will get his touches (he is the best player by far that they have). Like the last few years look for him to get used in the running game this season.

Receptions 88

Receiving Yrds 1232

TD 10

 
Let's get last season out of the way first.

In 2007 Smith played in 15 Games and totaled 148 targets, 87 recepts, 1,002 yards, for 7 TDs (& 9 rushes for 66 yards, too)

However, the year was divided by a QB carousel, so here are the numbers broken down by QB (I went with the QB who had the most attempts in each game, so there is potential to break this down further)

Delhomme (3 Games - really 2 1/2 due to injury in a game where Smith had one reception for 10 yards in Week 3)

Smith Averaged 9 targets 5.3 recepts 93.7 yards and 1.33 TDs



Steve and Jake hooked up 15 times for 271 yards and 4 TD's in the first two games before Jake got hurt

Carr (5 games)

Smith averaged 8.8 targets 4 recepts 31.8 yards and 0.2 TDs

These were troubled times, in many ways...

Testeverde (4 games)

Smith averaged 10.75 targets 7.25 recepts 76.25 yards and 0.25 TD

Like a Phoenix Vinnie rose, albeit briefly

Moore (3 Games)

Smith averaged 11.3 targets 7.3 recepts 85.7 yards and 0.33 TD

A new hope for the future is born

What does it all tell us?

Steve Smith without David Carr = 10.4 targets 6.7 recepts 84.3 yards 0.6 TDs (over 16 games that's 107 catches for 1349 yard and 9.5 TD)

Steve Smith with David Carr = 8.8 targets 4 recepts 31.8 yards and 0.2 TDs (over 16 games that's 64 catches for 509 yards and 3 TDs)

As we look at 2008 there should be three major concerns for Smith:

1) Health of Delhomme - A healthy Jake is a big positive for Smith evern though Smith did produce with Moore....the question will be if Fox goes with a <100% Jake and the impact it will have on Smith's deep game.

2) Addition of Moose & DJ could take away targets - Traditionally, Smith has always gotten his looks, but he really hasn't had two other WR's of this caliber on the roster before.

3) Renewed commitment to run could also reduce targets - Major shift in OL personnel and drafting of Stewart definitely forecast a smash mouth shift in CAR.

The bottom line on this team is that Smith is their best weapon, by a wide margin. He'll still put up nice numbers, but not gaudy because the Panthers have more offensive options than they've had in the recent past.

85 recepts

1,105 yards

8 TD's

 
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Everyone's already said it

With Delhomme, he was on pace to be probably the 2nd best receiver behind Moss last year. Without him, not so much. Obviously he improved once the Carr experiment was out of the way, and will be "good" even without Delhomme, but he's elite with him.

Carolina may look to return to a power running game, but they will still look to feed Smith the ball, he's the best player on their team, probably in the division. He's the heart and soul of their offense. Without him, they just don't compete, power running game or not.

Also, for the first time in a couple years, they have a 2nd receiver. Muhsin Muhammad thrived in that offense, and should do excellent whether he's the 2 or 3, and DJ Hackett was an excellent play maker for Seattle last year, doing a great job of finding the endzone when he played. This will be the most receiving talent Smith has ever had around him.

Assuming Delhomme is healthy all season

93 Receptions

1320 Yards

14 Tds

I think he'll find the same rhythm as last season, and go on to close to a career year.

 
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If you're looking to dodge some landmines this year, you may want to take a different path than choosing Steve Smith. Only twice in his career has he finished in the top 10 in fantasy football at WR (he's easily drafted in the top 10) and only once in his career has he caught more than 90 balls (less value in PPR leagues). There's no doubt that Smith is a talented WR but he's always drafted high and odds are, he won't live up to his value.

85 receptions for 1080 yards and 8 td's

 
If you're looking to dodge some landmines this year, you may want to take a different path than choosing Steve Smith. Only twice in his career has he finished in the top 10 in fantasy football at WR (he's easily drafted in the top 10) and only once in his career has he caught more than 90 balls (less value in PPR leagues). There's no doubt that Smith is a talented WR but he's always drafted high and odds are, he won't live up to his value.85 receptions for 1080 yards and 8 td's
Well since he broke onto the scene he's finished in the top five on a ppg basis exactly 50% of the time (2 of 4 seasons). The other two years he had a freak injury and Carr and crap pitching to him. Even in the later case he put up respectable numbers and didn't disappear into the abyss like Moss did when his QBs stunk.
 
Before I start this post I want to make it clear I am a Panthers homer. With that said I think the Panthers are in for a good year. Carr is gone which can only help and Jake is looking good in the preseason. With the additions made in the offseason I feel this team is ready to put up some good numbers. The only thing that could hold S. Smith back is a renewed emphasis on the run for the Panthers. Fox wants to go back to the run first pass second mentality. Even with this though Smith will get his touches (he is the best player by far that they have). Like the last few years look for him to get used in the running game this season. Receptions 88Receiving Yrds 1232TD 10
not tryin to hijack, just got a related question. so Delhomme looks to be at full strength? right? and we all know S.Smith and Delhomme have chemistry, and Delhomme gives the panthers their best chance to win. so is M.Moore gonna be the #2, and how is he comin along? followed him at Oregon State, and he was a tough, talented college QB, but not a superstar. i was impressed with him at Dallas in the preseason, and was sad to see him go. i feel he could be a very good NFL QB, and lead the Panthers if given the chance. maybe not this yr, but within the next couple. homer insight?S.SmithRec. 86yds. 1400TD's. 12
 
The more I watch the both of them, the more I think that Steve Smith and Santana Moss are as close to identical twins as the NFL has. They're both diminutive and rely upon great competitive desire, outstanding speed, great ball tracking, and fearlessness to be successfu. Both are explosive, and can both run deep routes and also turn shorter plays into big plays. Both have been hampered by injuries as well as spotty QB play.

The odd part to me is that Smith seems to be chronically overrated while Moss gets chronically underrated. I think their dynasty rankings should be about the same, and this year at least so should their redraft ranking.

 
not tryin to hijack, just got a related question. so Delhomme looks to be at full strength? right? and we all know S.Smith and Delhomme have chemistry, and Delhomme gives the panthers their best chance to win. so is M.Moore gonna be the #2, and how is he comin along? followed him at Oregon State, and he was a tough, talented college QB, but not a superstar. i was impressed with him at Dallas in the preseason, and was sad to see him go. i feel he could be a very good NFL QB, and lead the Panthers if given the chance. maybe not this yr, but within the next couple. homer insight?
I'm not a homer but don't think they know that yet. They should try and get him ready in case Jake goes down, but DelHomme says the arm is stronger. Hopefully he'll be fine.The other QB's are 2nd year guy Ricard 6-4 228 from Tulane and rookie Tharp from Boise State.
The more I watch the both of them, the more I think that Steve Smith and Santana Moss are as close to identical twins as the NFL has. They're both diminutive and rely upon great competitive desire, outstanding speed, great ball tracking, and fearlessness to be successfu. Both are explosive, and can both run deep routes and also turn shorter plays into big plays. Both have been hampered by injuries as well as spotty QB play. The odd part to me is that Smith seems to be chronically overrated while Moss gets chronically underrated. I think their dynasty rankings should be about the same, and this year at least so should their redraft ranking.
Santana Moss doesn't have the strength or desire Smith has. They may be close in measureables but that's where the similarity ends.
 
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not tryin to hijack, just got a related question. so Delhomme looks to be at full strength? right? and we all know S.Smith and Delhomme have chemistry, and Delhomme gives the panthers their best chance to win. so is M.Moore gonna be the #2, and how is he comin along? followed him at Oregon State, and he was a tough, talented college QB, but not a superstar. i was impressed with him at Dallas in the preseason, and was sad to see him go. i feel he could be a very good NFL QB, and lead the Panthers if given the chance. maybe not this yr, but within the next couple. homer insight?
I'm not a homer but don't think they know that yet. They should try and get him ready in case Jake goes down, but DelHomme says the arm is stronger. Hopefully he'll be fine.The other QB's are 2nd year guy Ricard 6-4 228 from Tulane and rookie Tharp from Boise State.
The more I watch the both of them, the more I think that Steve Smith and Santana Moss are as close to identical twins as the NFL has. They're both diminutive and rely upon great competitive desire, outstanding speed, great ball tracking, and fearlessness to be successfu. Both are explosive, and can both run deep routes and also turn shorter plays into big plays. Both have been hampered by injuries as well as spotty QB play. The odd part to me is that Smith seems to be chronically overrated while Moss gets chronically underrated. I think their dynasty rankings should be about the same, and this year at least so should their redraft ranking.
Santana Moss doesn't have the strength or desire Smith has. They may be close in measureables but that's where the similarity ends.
I don't think you've watched enough Santana Moss.
 
The more I watch the both of them, the more I think that Steve Smith and Santana Moss are as close to identical twins as the NFL has. They're both diminutive and rely upon great competitive desire, outstanding speed, great ball tracking, and fearlessness to be successfu. Both are explosive, and can both run deep routes and also turn shorter plays into big plays. Both have been hampered by injuries as well as spotty QB play. The odd part to me is that Smith seems to be chronically overrated while Moss gets chronically underrated. I think their dynasty rankings should be about the same, and this year at least so should their redraft ranking.
A better comparision would be to take Wes Welker and give him all of Randy talent and skills less his height and you would have Steve Smith.
 
The more I watch the both of them, the more I think that Steve Smith and Santana Moss are as close to identical twins as the NFL has. They're both diminutive and rely upon great competitive desire, outstanding speed, great ball tracking, and fearlessness to be successfu. Both are explosive, and can both run deep routes and also turn shorter plays into big plays. Both have been hampered by injuries as well as spotty QB play.

The odd part to me is that Smith seems to be chronically overrated while Moss gets chronically underrated. I think their dynasty rankings should be about the same, and this year at least so should their redraft ranking.
I've seen Santana Moss give up on too many balls to be put in the same league as S Smith. Not even close in my opinion in terms of desire and competitive spirit.
 
S.Smith>>>> S.Moss. i stay away from moss, burned me two yrs ago. way too inconsistent to even be a WR2 imo.

 
S.Smith>>>> S.Moss. i stay away from moss, burned me two yrs ago. way too inconsistent to even be a WR2 imo.
Code:
Receiving Receiving Receiving Receiving Receiving Receiving Receiving Rushing Rushing Rushing Rushing Rushing Rushing Rushing			  Year	 Age  Tm Pos  G GS	   Rec	   Yds	   Y/R		TD	   Lng	   R/G	   Y/G	 Att	 Yds	  TD	 Lng	 Y/A	 Y/G	 A/G YScm RRTD Fmb2001*+	22 CAR RET 15  1		10	   154	  15.4		 0		33	   0.7	  10.3	   4	  43	   0	  39	10.8	 2.9	 0.3  197	0   82002	  23 CAR  WR 15 13		54	   872	  16.1		 3		69	   3.6	  58.1	   1	  -4	   0	  -4	-4.0	-0.3	 0.1  868	3   52003	  24 CAR  WR 16 11		88	  1110	  12.6		 7		67	   5.5	  69.4	  11	  42	   0	  14	 3.8	 2.6	 0.7 1152	7   52004	  25 CAR	  1  1		 6		60	  10.0		 0		15	   6.0	  60.0														   60	0   02005*+	26 CAR  WR 16 16	   103	  1563	  15.2		12		80	   6.4	  97.7	   4	  25	   1	  20	 6.3	 1.6	 0.3 1588   13   22006*	 27 CAR  WR 14 14		83	  1166	  14.0		 8		72	   5.9	  83.3	   8	  61	   1	  24	 7.6	 4.4	 0.6 1227	9   22007	  28 CAR  WR 15 15		87	  1002	  11.5		 7		74	   5.8	  66.8	   9	  66	   0	  22	 7.3	 4.4	 0.6 1068	7   1Career			   92 71	   431	  5927	  13.8		37		80	   4.7	  64.4	  37	 233	   2	  39	 6.3	 2.5	 0.4 6160   39  23
Consistency isn't exactly the hallmark of Steve Smith's career.
 
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S.Smith>>>> S.Moss. i stay away from moss, burned me two yrs ago. way too inconsistent to even be a WR2 imo.
Code:
Receiving Receiving Receiving Receiving Receiving Receiving Receiving Rushing Rushing Rushing Rushing Rushing Rushing Rushing			  Year	 Age  Tm Pos  G GS	   Rec	   Yds	   Y/R		TD	   Lng	   R/G	   Y/G	 Att	 Yds	  TD	 Lng	 Y/A	 Y/G	 A/G YScm RRTD Fmb2001*+	22 CAR RET 15  1		10	   154	  15.4		 0		33	   0.7	  10.3	   4	  43	   0	  39	10.8	 2.9	 0.3  197	0   82002	  23 CAR  WR 15 13		54	   872	  16.1		 3		69	   3.6	  58.1	   1	  -4	   0	  -4	-4.0	-0.3	 0.1  868	3   52003	  24 CAR  WR 16 11		88	  1110	  12.6		 7		67	   5.5	  69.4	  11	  42	   0	  14	 3.8	 2.6	 0.7 1152	7   52004	  25 CAR	  1  1		 6		60	  10.0		 0		15	   6.0	  60.0														   60	0   02005*+	26 CAR  WR 16 16	   103	  1563	  15.2		12		80	   6.4	  97.7	   4	  25	   1	  20	 6.3	 1.6	 0.3 1588   13   22006*	 27 CAR  WR 14 14		83	  1166	  14.0		 8		72	   5.9	  83.3	   8	  61	   1	  24	 7.6	 4.4	 0.6 1227	9   22007	  28 CAR  WR 15 15		87	  1002	  11.5		 7		74	   5.8	  66.8	   9	  66	   0	  22	 7.3	 4.4	 0.6 1068	7   1Career			   92 71	   431	  5927	  13.8		37		80	   4.7	  64.4	  37	 233	   2	  39	 6.3	 2.5	 0.4 6160   39  23
Consistency isn't exactly the hallmark of Steve Smith's career.
If you really follow Steve Smith, you would know that those stats are misleading.
 
I see 80/1500/10. I just took at 28(2.12 in 1 16 team dynasty).
18.75/rec?
S.Smith

Rec. 86

yds. 1400

TD's. 12
16.2/rec? AND 12 TDs? :bag:

Wow...some high expectations in this thread.

I like SSmith as much as the next guy, and I am planning on projecting him as if Delhomme is 100%--as has been already stated, early reports are very positive about Delhomme throwing the ball. That being said, Smith has only avg'd greater than 15.4/rec once in his career, and that was in 2002. He has only had greater than 88 receptions once, in 2005. For his career, his 16-game season yardage average is less than 1100 yards per season. Additionally, he has only exceeded 8 TDs on one occasion.

I will hope that the stars align: SSmith is healthy, Delhomme is healthy to start the season, Smith remains the focus of an offensive passing game, CAR throws more than it runs, and the OL is a competitive squad that keeps Delhomme off his back and on the field. If all of those things hold true, than I can see (at the most):

10-81-1 on the ground

89-1250-10 through the air

He is risky at his ADP right now (WR9), but all of the guys immediately after him have their own set of questions regarding their potential for 2008 as well (CJ, BMarshall, ABoldin, WWelker, Holt)...so maybe he wouldn't be such a bad pick there after all...I would just temper my expectations; I certainly wouldn't reach for him.

 
I really view Steve Smith as a high risk but high reward pick. He's so dangerous and devastating when he gets the ball, and Delhomme knows how to feed him the ball. We definitely saw that last year before Delhomme injured his arm. Also, the WR additions will help take pressure off of Smith.

If you pick Smith and Delhomme stays healthy you will be sitting pretty.

85 catches 1300 yds 10 tds (assuming Delhomme stays healthy)

 
Let's get last season out of the way first.

In 2007 Smith played in 15 Games and totaled 148 targets, 87 recepts, 1,002 yards, for 7 TDs (& 9 rushes for 66 yards, too)

However, the year was divided by a QB carousel, so here are the numbers broken down by QB (I went with the QB who had the most attempts in each game, so there is potential to break this down further)

Delhomme (3 Games - really 2 1/2 due to injury in a game where Smith had one reception for 10 yards in Week 3)

Smith Averaged 9 targets 5.3 recepts 93.7 yards and 1.33 TDs



Steve and Jake hooked up 15 times for 271 yards and 4 TD's in the first two games before Jake got hurt

Carr (5 games)

Smith averaged 8.8 targets 4 recepts 31.8 yards and 0.2 TDs

These were troubled times, in many ways...

Testeverde (4 games)

Smith averaged 10.75 targets 7.25 recepts 76.25 yards and 0.25 TD

Like a Phoenix Vinnie rose, albeit briefly

Moore (3 Games)

Smith averaged 11.3 targets 7.3 recepts 85.7 yards and 0.33 TD

A new hope for the future is born

What does it all tell us?

Steve Smith without David Carr = 10.4 targets 6.7 recepts 84.3 yards 0.6 TDs (over 16 games that's 107 catches for 1349 yard and 9.5 TD)

Steve Smith with David Carr = 8.8 targets 4 recepts 31.8 yards and 0.2 TDs (over 16 games that's 64 catches for 509 yards and 3 TDs)

As we look at 2008 there should be three major concerns for Smith:

1) Health of Delhomme - A healthy Jake is a big positive for Smith evern though Smith did produce with Moore....the question will be if Fox goes with a <100% Jake and the impact it will have on Smith's deep game.

2) Addition of Moose & DJ could take away targets - Traditionally, Smith has always gotten his looks, but he really hasn't had two other WR's of this caliber on the roster before.

3) Renewed commitment to run could also reduce targets - Major shift in OL personnel and drafting of Stewart definitely forecast a smash mouth shift in CAR.

The bottom line on this team is that Smith is their best weapon, by a wide margin. He'll still put up nice numbers, but not gaudy because the Panthers have more offensive options than they've had in the recent past.

85 recepts

1,105 yards

8 TD's
VERY :kicksrock: My kinda post! While I agree that the additions of Hackett and Muhammad will give the Panthers more options, I don't subscribe to the theory that Smith's numbers will take a hit because of their presence. If anything, it will improve the offense, decrease the three or six and outs and move the ball down the field, thus resulting in more opportunities and more plays per possession for Smith to benefit from. Even if Carolina has to rely on Matt Moore if Jake suffers a setback, which I don't think will happen anyway, Smith will still be the main focal point of the passing game. He will be a major contributor on offense. Smith could easily reach 10+ TDs and Muhammad and Hackett could each get 5-6. What that translates to is a very healthy Panthers offense, which also really elevates the value of Jake Delhomme, arguably the QB2 everyone should strive to draft for their fantasy rosters this year.
 
I don't like S. smith as much as everyone I guess. First off, like everyone else is stating you have injury concern with Delhomme. Usually , I don't want to take my #1 wr when there are such huge questions about his signal caller. I do think Smith has excellent talent but I think he is regarded in alittle higer class than I want to put him. There is "NO WAY" I consider him a top 5 wr. I'd probably have him closer to #9 but his ADP will always have going before that. I can easily name 8 other wr's that Ilike their situation better.

R. Moss

Wayne

Fitz

TO

A. Johnson

Edwards

Chad Johnson

Colston

And for the price I think I'd rather have Holt, Burress, Housh

The facts are since Smith has came on the scene he has had some nice years finishing in the top ten 2 out of 4 years (I'm not counting his injury season of 2004). His other 2 finishes respectable at #15 and #16 but has missed a couple of games in the last 2 years. I agree with most the posters that there are alot of question marks surrounding this guy and I wouldn't way a third round pick on him.

90 catches 1200 yards 8 tds

 
If Smith misses time to suspension, how much of a hit does his ADP take? What is the shark move? It seems that he could slip a little bit if a suspension materializes. I have been pretty high on him but am a bit unsure if he misses more than a game....

 
If Smith misses time to suspension, how much of a hit does his ADP take? What is the shark move? It seems that he could slip a little bit if a suspension materializes. I have been pretty high on him but am a bit unsure if he misses more than a game....
Not a whole lot but it will play a part...Smith has been going late 2nd/early 3rd, I would see him slide to maybe middle 3rd but I doubt he would make the 3/4 turn...sertainly possible, depends on the suspension of course. I had Smith in my top5...I would probably slide him back to at least the next 5. You get 12-13 weeks, losing 2 games put you down already about 15%...but to have him going into the playoffs, you would love it. 1.07 Randy Moss

2.06 Braylon Edwards

3.07 Steve Smith

4.06 Darren McFadden

5.07 Thomas Jones

6.06 Rashard Mendenhall

Peel that out as a potential starting roster or stable of your WR/RB

 

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