Player Spotlight: Steven Jackson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Still wondering why people give Quizz so much love. He has never really been that much of an impact player and if there was ever a time for him to showcase his "goods" and demand more touches, it would have been with the plodder Michael Turner in town. He is virtually undraftable to me right now. It seems like some people assume that he just HAS to be involved.

Jackson will be able to pretty much fall down for a yard and get 10+ goaline TD's, let alone the ones he will score from distance in the open space he will have and the matchups where he will have an advantage in that open space.

One could argue that this team already has 3 receivers that demand double coverage. Think about that.

Jackson could get 5+ receiving TD's alone on screen passes or short play action sit down throws after Julio and Roddy take defenders down the field.

The other receivers are physical, good blocking receivers as well.

Jackson is a beast and a physical runner, in the open field, there will be a few guys that won't like to see him coming with a head of steam.

Fantasy=talent and opportunity....I'm actually trying to think of a more talented RB in a better "situation" and I can't come up with one.....

Sometimes we overanalyze and ignore things that are pretty obvious....I think Jackson is in line for a top 5 season...potentially top 3.....

Well that's a fine opinion but Rodgers caught 52 balls last year and started making bigger plays in the 2nd half of the season. You might want to see the moves he put on the Saints LB as he literally turns on a dime. He humiliated the Cowboys on a couple plays as well in this highlight footage.

Quizz is not going to get a lot of carries but he will be part of the passing game. They are not going to run screens on 1st and 2nd down with SJax when they have White and JJ at WR.

Jackson has been in the league 9 seasons and has over 2200 carries, has a medical chart that would make Dalton from Roadhouse blush, he'll be there to drain the clock in the 2nd half when they have the lead and near the goal line but between the 20s and 3rd down you are going to see Rodgers a lot even if it is just to rest Jackson. They want to keep him fresh for the playoffs, they are not going to ride him like Seabiscuit into the ground by week 8. Yes I made 2 movie references, deal with it.

 

[Bri]

A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.

30 receptions would be a career low for Jackson other than his rookie season. I understand your point with Quizz, but don't see him as the 3rd down back exclusively. Turner couldn't catch the ball consistently. Jackson can.

Less than 2 receptions per game? I don't see that.

Why bother though?

There's a dreamy lineup to throw to and a speedy 3rd down back.

He's old and his playing style is downright brutal for hits.

Oh so many NFL teams have had their RBs limp into the playoffs and/or be forced to sit as the regular season closed. I think if the Falcs see an opportunity where resting Jackson is an option where they are not negatively affecting the O, then they do it-like on third downs.

This is a runner that was the whole offense at times and quite literally has been tackled by 5-6 guys at least 1000 times in his career.

It seems like Jax gets torn up every preseason-hammy, strained groin, etc.

Why bother? Short answer: Jackson averaged 8.4 yards per reception for the Rams last year. Quizz averaged 7.6 yards per reception for the Falcons.

He's old? There have been 16 RBs manage 200+ fantasy points in their age 30 season. There are some pretty great RBs who have accomplished the feat. Perrenial pro bowlers. Hall of Famers. Jackson is in the conversation with some of these guys.

Each of them played at least 14 games, which Jackson has done in all but 2 of his seasons. 13 of the 16 managed double digit TDs. I think we can all agree Jackson has a very good shot at 10+ TDs. Only one of the 16 had 15 receptions or fewer, which was Corey Dillon in 2004, and each back remaining had at least 27 receptions. Jackson is highly likely to have 40+ receptions in this offense. His lowest total disregarding his rookie year is 38.

He definitely fits the criteria for becoming the 17th RB to reach 200+ fantasy points in his age 30 season.

Nice reply.

I disagree but, to each his own here.

Jax is an excellent receiver, as Jason alluded to earlier, but I'm of the opinion if you have to rest him the passing game is where they need his help the least.

There is a big difference with the quality of team and the expectancy of the playoffs. He definitely needs to be ready to play more than 16 games.

It's odd, no doubt, but I still expect what I feel is a very predictable preseason injury. I don't like to predict such things, but when it happens to a guy every year of his NFL career it seems like it's almost reasonable to predict.

We'll see.

 

[Biabreakable]

A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.

30 receptions would be a career low for Jackson other than his rookie season. I understand your point with Quizz, but don't see him as the 3rd down back exclusively. Turner couldn't catch the ball consistently. Jackson can.

Less than 2 receptions per game? I don't see that.

Why bother though?

There's a dreamy lineup to throw to and a speedy 3rd down back.

He's old and his playing style is downright brutal for hits.

Oh so many NFL teams have had their RBs limp into the playoffs and/or be forced to sit as the regular season closed. I think if the Falcs see an opportunity where resting Jackson is an option where they are not negatively affecting the O, then they do it-like on third downs.

This is a runner that was the whole offense at times and quite literally has been tackled by 5-6 guys at least 1000 times in his career.

It seems like Jax gets torn up every preseason-hammy, strained groin, etc.

Why bother? Short answer: Jackson averaged 8.4 yards per reception for the Rams last year. Quizz averaged 7.6 yards per reception for the Falcons.

He's old? There have been 16 RBs manage 200+ fantasy points in their age 30 season. There are some pretty great RBs who have accomplished the feat. Perrenial pro bowlers. Hall of Famers. Jackson is in the conversation with some of these guys.

Each of them played at least 14 games, which Jackson has done in all but 2 of his seasons. 13 of the 16 managed double digit TDs. I think we can all agree Jackson has a very good shot at 10+ TDs. Only one of the 16 had 15 receptions or fewer, which was Corey Dillon in 2004, and each back remaining had at least 27 receptions. Jackson is highly likely to have 40+ receptions in this offense. His lowest total disregarding his rookie year is 38.

He definitely fits the criteria for becoming the 17th RB to reach 200+ fantasy points in his age 30 season.

Nice reply.

I disagree but, to each his own here.

Jax is an excellent receiver, as Jason alluded to earlier, but I'm of the opinion if you have to rest him the passing game is where they need his help the least.

There is a big difference with the quality of team and the expectancy of the playoffs. He definitely needs to be ready to play more than 16 games.

It's odd, no doubt, but I still expect what I feel is a very predictable preseason injury. I don't like to predict such things, but when it happens to a guy every year of his NFL career it seems like it's almost reasonable to predict.

We'll see.

When one considers how consistent Jackson has been with his offseason training program throughout his career I have no idea why you would even be thinking about this. One of the worst things I have ever seen you post over the past decade.

 

[cstu]

SJax has the 11th highest number of carries (2397) through age 29. Smith, Sanders, Payton and Martin all were productive after 30 but those guys are the minority (~20% of the RB's with 1900+ carries through 29). I like his odds but I also won't be surprised if he falls off a cliff.

Aren't the guys that have had the most carries in a career the ones more likely to get more carries after 30 anyways? They've proven to be the most talented and durable, so their talent lasts longer and their more likely to remain durable. What is the % of RBs that were productive after 30 that had > 2000 carries? 2250 carries? 2400 (closer to his #s)? I'd bet 1900 is a good cutoff for a low % to make that argument. I'd also knock Barry off that list, because he obviously was still in his prime when he walked away at 30.

I chose 1900 since that's as far as I checked back, here's the top 30. You're correct that guys with the most carries through 29 tend to be the most productive after 30 but it's still only 30% of these RB's who big numbers into their 30's. Of the group with 1700-1900 carries, Dorsett (2 years with 1100+ yards at 30/31), Dillion (1600 yards at 30), Ricky Williams (1100 at 32) and Fred Taylor (2 years with 1100+ yards at 30/31) were the most most productive. My take from looking at the data is that if a good RB can stay healthy after 30 he can produce until at least through 31. However, what tends to happen to RB's over 30 is that injuries take away the edge they had when they were younger. Before looking this up I thought that RB's today would be able to play longer, but of the most recent high carry backs (Edge, LT, Lewis and Portis) none have done well after 30.

1	Emmitt Smith	rb	1990--1998	140	2914	12566	4.31	125	2321.52	Edgerrin James	rb	1999--2007	128	2849	11617	4.08	77	2014.93	Barry Sanders	rb	1989--1997	137	2719	13778	5.07	95	2271.04	Jerome Bettis	rb	1993--2001	136	2686	10876	4.05	53	1551.25	Walter Payton	rb	1975--1983	130	2666	11625	4.36	78	1993.36	LaDainian Tomlinson	rb	2001--2008	127	2657	11760	4.43	126	2437.37	Curtis Martin	rb	1995--2002	124	2604	10361	3.98	71	1785.48	Eric Dickerson	rb	1983--1989	105	2450	11226	4.58	82	1805.79	Eddie George	rb	1996--2002	112	2421	8978	3.71	59	1509.910	Jamal Lewis	rb	2000--2008	122	2399	10107	4.21	58	1561.811	Steven Jackson	rb	2004--2012	131	2397	10144	4.23	56	1734.112	Marshall Faulk	rb	1994--2002	135	2367	10395	4.39	87	2357.913	Thurman Thomas	rb	1988--1995	123	2285	9729	4.26	54	1779.114	Clinton Portis	rb	2002--2010	113	2230	9923	4.45	75	1688.515	Earl Campbell	rb	1978--1984	99	2029	8764	4.32	73	1386.216	Franco Harris	rb	1972--1979	111	2012	8563	4.26	72	1443.417	O.J. Simpson	rb	1969--1976	105	1997	9626	4.82	57	1555.218	Shaun Alexander	rb	2000--2006	106	1969	8713	4.43	96	1656.819	Ricky Watters	rb	1992--1998	107	1947	7873	4.04	65	1545.420	Frank Gore	rb	2005--2012	116	1912	8837	4.62	51	1512.821	Ottis Anderson	rb	1979--1986	107	1882	8080	4.29	47	1374.122	Ahman Green	rb	1998--2006	126	1871	8491	4.54	54	1533.123	Corey Dillon	rb	1997--2003	107	1865	8061	4.32	45	1253.324	Tony Dorsett	rb	1977--1983	100	1834	8336	4.55	53	1401.625	Fred Taylor	rb	1998--2005	97	1831	8367	4.57	51	1381.026	Rodney Hampton	rb	1990--1997	104	1824	6897	3.78	49	1126.627	Gerald Riggs	rb	1982--1989	103	1788	7465	4.18	52	1203.628	Marcus Allen	rb	1982--1989	104	1781	7275	4.08	63	1567.629	Ricky Williams	rb	1999--2005	82	1757	7097	4.04	47	1205.630	Adrian Peterson	rb	2007--2012	89	1756	8858	5.04	76	1518.4

 

[Stinkin Ref]

SJax has the 11th highest number of carries (2397) through age 29. Smith, Sanders, Payton and Martin all were productive after 30 but those guys are the minority (~20% of the RB's with 1900+ carries through 29). I like his odds but I also won't be surprised if he falls off a cliff.

Aren't the guys that have had the most carries in a career the ones more likely to get more carries after 30 anyways? They've proven to be the most talented and durable, so their talent lasts longer and their more likely to remain durable. What is the % of RBs that were productive after 30 that had > 2000 carries? 2250 carries? 2400 (closer to his #s)? I'd bet 1900 is a good cutoff for a low % to make that argument. I'd also knock Barry off that list, because he obviously was still in his prime when he walked away at 30.

I chose 1900 since that's as far as I checked back, here's the top 30. You're correct that guys with the most carries through 29 tend to be the most productive after 30 but it's still only 30% of these RB's who big numbers into their 30's. Of the group with 1700-1900 carries, Dorsett (2 years with 1100+ yards at 30/31), Dillion (1600 yards at 30), Ricky Williams (1100 at 32) and Fred Taylor (2 years with 1100+ yards at 30/31) were the most most productive. My take from looking at the data is that if a good RB can stay healthy after 30 he can produce until at least through 31. However, what tends to happen to RB's over 30 is that injuries take away the edge they had when they were younger. Before looking this up I thought that RB's today would be able to play longer, but of the most recent high carry backs (Edge, LT, Lewis and Portis) none have done well after 30.

1 Emmitt Smith rb 1990--1998 140 2914 12566 4.31 125 2321.52 Edgerrin James rb 1999--2007 128 2849 11617 4.08 77 2014.93 Barry Sanders rb 1989--1997 137 2719 13778 5.07 95 2271.04 Jerome Bettis rb 1993--2001 136 2686 10876 4.05 53 1551.25 Walter Payton rb 1975--1983 130 2666 11625 4.36 78 1993.36 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2001--2008 127 2657 11760 4.43 126 2437.37 Curtis Martin rb 1995--2002 124 2604 10361 3.98 71 1785.48 Eric Dickerson rb 1983--1989 105 2450 11226 4.58 82 1805.79 Eddie George rb 1996--2002 112 2421 8978 3.71 59 1509.910 Jamal Lewis rb 2000--2008 122 2399 10107 4.21 58 1561.811 Steven Jackson rb 2004--2012 131 2397 10144 4.23 56 1734.112 Marshall Faulk rb 1994--2002 135 2367 10395 4.39 87 2357.913 Thurman Thomas rb 1988--1995 123 2285 9729 4.26 54 1779.114 Clinton Portis rb 2002--2010 113 2230 9923 4.45 75 1688.515 Earl Campbell rb 1978--1984 99 2029 8764 4.32 73 1386.216 Franco Harris rb 1972--1979 111 2012 8563 4.26 72 1443.417 O.J. Simpson rb 1969--1976 105 1997 9626 4.82 57 1555.218 Shaun Alexander rb 2000--2006 106 1969 8713 4.43 96 1656.819 Ricky Watters rb 1992--1998 107 1947 7873 4.04 65 1545.420 Frank Gore rb 2005--2012 116 1912 8837 4.62 51 1512.821 Ottis Anderson rb 1979--1986 107 1882 8080 4.29 47 1374.122 Ahman Green rb 1998--2006 126 1871 8491 4.54 54 1533.123 Corey Dillon rb 1997--2003 107 1865 8061 4.32 45 1253.324 Tony Dorsett rb 1977--1983 100 1834 8336 4.55 53 1401.625 Fred Taylor rb 1998--2005 97 1831 8367 4.57 51 1381.026 Rodney Hampton rb 1990--1997 104 1824 6897 3.78 49 1126.627 Gerald Riggs rb 1982--1989 103 1788 7465 4.18 52 1203.628 Marcus Allen rb 1982--1989 104 1781 7275 4.08 63 1567.629 Ricky Williams rb 1999--2005 82 1757 7097 4.04 47 1205.630 Adrian Peterson rb 2007--2012 89 1756 8858 5.04 76 1518.4

I see posts like this a lot in the Shark Pool and I guess this is where my approach to fantasy football differs from many....

I could really care less about all the stuff above....it really means absolutely nothing when you look at Jackson for this upcoming season....every player and every situation is different.....what Marcus Allen did, has nothing to do with what Jackson will or won't do.....sure the stats of "RB's over 30" may show some type of trend or something, but it means nothing when looking at Jackson or any other RB for that matter....if you draft, or I guess, "don't draft" Jackson based on information like this I think you are making a big mistake.....if you pass on him because "RB's over 30 fall off a cliff" or whatever and he blows up and has a big year....using the excuse that I passed on him because "history has shown us whatever" seems pretty lame....

take a look at Jackson the player "right now"....his situation....make whatever assessment you decide and go from there......don't draft or not draft him based on Rodney Hampton and Franco Harris....

 

[Bri]

A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.

30 receptions would be a career low for Jackson other than his rookie season. I understand your point with Quizz, but don't see him as the 3rd down back exclusively. Turner couldn't catch the ball consistently. Jackson can.

Less than 2 receptions per game? I don't see that.

Why bother though?

There's a dreamy lineup to throw to and a speedy 3rd down back.

He's old and his playing style is downright brutal for hits.

Oh so many NFL teams have had their RBs limp into the playoffs and/or be forced to sit as the regular season closed. I think if the Falcs see an opportunity where resting Jackson is an option where they are not negatively affecting the O, then they do it-like on third downs.

This is a runner that was the whole offense at times and quite literally has been tackled by 5-6 guys at least 1000 times in his career.

It seems like Jax gets torn up every preseason-hammy, strained groin, etc.

Why bother? Short answer: Jackson averaged 8.4 yards per reception for the Rams last year. Quizz averaged 7.6 yards per reception for the Falcons.

He's old? There have been 16 RBs manage 200+ fantasy points in their age 30 season. There are some pretty great RBs who have accomplished the feat. Perrenial pro bowlers. Hall of Famers. Jackson is in the conversation with some of these guys.

Each of them played at least 14 games, which Jackson has done in all but 2 of his seasons. 13 of the 16 managed double digit TDs. I think we can all agree Jackson has a very good shot at 10+ TDs. Only one of the 16 had 15 receptions or fewer, which was Corey Dillon in 2004, and each back remaining had at least 27 receptions. Jackson is highly likely to have 40+ receptions in this offense. His lowest total disregarding his rookie year is 38.

He definitely fits the criteria for becoming the 17th RB to reach 200+ fantasy points in his age 30 season.

Nice reply.

I disagree but, to each his own here.

Jax is an excellent receiver, as Jason alluded to earlier, but I'm of the opinion if you have to rest him the passing game is where they need his help the least.

There is a big difference with the quality of team and the expectancy of the playoffs. He definitely needs to be ready to play more than 16 games.

It's odd, no doubt, but I still expect what I feel is a very predictable preseason injury. I don't like to predict such things, but when it happens to a guy every year of his NFL career it seems like it's almost reasonable to predict.

We'll see.

When one considers how consistent Jackson has been with his offseason training program throughout his career I have no idea why you would even be thinking about this. One of the worst things I have ever seen you post over the past decade.

I'm not comfy with it at all, but when a guy always seems to be a concern on draft day you remember that.

Quick google, last six years in preseason-

groin, groin, back, groin and knee, quadriceps, groin.

He is an absolute beast but every draft it seems we are discussing an injury with him. It's possible he pushes himself too hard and the first week in August he needs to be banned from the weights. I don't know how a team could encourage players to work out so much then be like woah take it easy, but Jax might need that.

I'm not saying he sat week one all these years. It could be he didn't practice all week, then pushed himself to play and a few weeks later it was more serious. Things happen. All I'm saying is the beast is always banged up by the time the season starts and the Falcons need to be leery of that if they want 20 games out of him.

He is a top player with awesome talent that "always" makes FF people nervous with an injury on draft day.

 

[Biabreakable]

I didnt think ctsu was saying to not look at Jackson and his situation right now.

He provided information about what has happened with other RBs from the age of 30 on who had 1900 carries entering the season when they were that age. This is good information to be aware of for all RBs not just Jackson.

The main observation "guys with the most carries through (age) 29 tend to be the most productive after 30 but it's still only 30% of these RB's who big numbers into their 30's".

I have observed the same thing. RB with a lot of carries, get more carries, RB from age 30 see a sharp decline in their productivity.

I will not be projecting Jackson for as much in 2014 as I have for 2013 because I do expect a decline. Like 20% 31 years old is a big deal. 30 is more hit or miss. Most of the miss ctsu points out are RB who clearly lost ability after serious injury. They recovered from the injury and were still too good to not earn many carries, but not as good as they were before the injuries. I think Jackson is good enough that 2014 will still be a good season to have him, but I really doubt he will perform as well in 2014 as he does this year. 2015 I wouldn't be planning to roster him. Curtis Martin did have the best year of his career at age 31. So it is certainly possible Jackson could have a good season at age 31. But the odds are really against it. Martin fell from 4.6ypc at age 31 to 3.3 and done at age 32. When it happens.. it happens fast and it is age (and usually an injury that the player is too old for the team to wait for them to recover from) that does it.

I do not think the carries matter much except what ctsu pointed out, which is players who get a lot of carries tend to continue to get a lot of carries.

Jackson has not had major injury like most of the players ctsu uses as examples. Jackson has missed 13 out of 144 games of his career (not counting his rookie season). 8 of those 13 games were in 2007-2008 when he was age 24-25. The groin injury(in2004) keeps showing up and may again at some time but this is generally something he has been able to play through since then, like most of the minor injuries he has had. Jackson clearly did not lose ability after the 2004 season.

His worst year was 2010 when Bradford was a rookie and a team so bad they earned the 1st overall pick. This will not be a problem for him now.

http://www.kffl.com/player/9270/nfl/injury_history/steven-jackson

 

[Stinkin Ref]

for the record...my post really had nothing to do with ctsu particular post in this thread....as I tried to mention in my first sentence...

it's more about similiar posts that we see in a ton of threads where guys spend WAY too much time (IMO)...digging up statistics about all these other guys in history and trends, etc....I factor absolutely ZERO into what OTHER people have done in the past....

seriously, how does what ####### Franco Harris did back in his day have ANYTHING to do with what Steven Jackson will do next year....?

 

[Cookiemonster]

I'm not comfy with it at all, but when a guy always seems to be a concern on draft day you remember that.

Quick google, last six years in preseason-

groin, groin, back, groin and knee, quadriceps, groin.

He is an absolute beast but every draft it seems we are discussing an injury with him. It's possible he pushes himself too hard and the first week in August he needs to be banned from the weights. I don't know how a team could encourage players to work out so much then be like woah take it easy, but Jax might need that.

I'm not saying he sat week one all these years. It could be he didn't practice all week, then pushed himself to play and a few weeks later it was more serious. Things happen. All I'm saying is the beast is always banged up by the time the season starts and the Falcons need to be leery of that if they want 20 games out of him.

He is a top player with awesome talent that "always" makes FF people nervous with an injury on draft day.

Maybe he just doesn't like training camp in hot, humid summers. Plenty of players nurse minor injuries through training camp and show up in the season opener like nothing has happened.

 

[Biabreakable]

'Probability is the bane of the age,' said Moreland, now warming up. 'Every Tom, ****, and Harry thinks he knows what is probable. The fact is most people have not the smallest idea what is going on round them. Their conclusions about life are based on utterly irrelevant - and usually inaccurate - premises.' Anthony Powell

Casanova's Chinese Restaurant

2nd Movement in A Dance to the Music of Time

University of Chicago Press, 1995
The very name calculus of probabilities is a paradox. Probability opposed to certainty is what we do not know, and how can we calculate what we do not know? H. Poincaré

Science and Hypothesis

Cosimo Classics, 2007, Chapter XI
Intuitively, the mathematical theory of probability deals with patterns that occur in random events. For the theory of probability the nature of randomness is inessential. (Note for the record, that according to the 18th century French mathematician Marquis de Laplace randomness is a perceived phenomenon explained by human ignorance, while the late 20th century mathematics came with a realization that chaos may emerge as the result of deterministic processes.) An experiment is a process - natural or set up deliberately - that has an observable outcome. In the deliberate setting, the word experiment and trial are synonymous. An experiment has a random outcome if the result of the experiment can't be predicted with absolute certainty. An event is a collection of possible outcomes of an experiment. An event is said to occur as a result of an experiment if it contains the actual outcome of that experiment. Individual outcomes comprising an event are said to be favorable to that event. Events are assigned a measure of certainty which is called probability (of an event.)

http://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/Dictionary.shtml

 

[cstu]

I see posts like this a lot in the Shark Pool and I guess this is where my approach to fantasy football differs from many....

I could really care less about all the stuff above....it really means absolutely nothing when you look at Jackson for this upcoming season....every player and every situation is different.....what Marcus Allen did, has nothing to do with what Jackson will or won't do.....sure the stats of "RB's over 30" may show some type of trend or something, but it means nothing when looking at Jackson or any other RB for that matter....if you draft, or I guess, "don't draft" Jackson based on information like this I think you are making a big mistake.....if you pass on him because "RB's over 30 fall off a cliff" or whatever and he blows up and has a big year....using the excuse that I passed on him because "history has shown us whatever" seems pretty lame....

take a look at Jackson the player "right now"....his situation....make whatever assessment you decide and go from there......don't draft or not draft him based on Rodney Hampton and Franco Harris....

Don't misunderstand my post, I'm not saying you shouldn't draft him but at least be aware of the risk. Had you ignored history with all the RB's I mentioned then you would have been disappointed.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I see posts like this a lot in the Shark Pool and I guess this is where my approach to fantasy football differs from many....

I could really care less about all the stuff above....it really means absolutely nothing when you look at Jackson for this upcoming season....every player and every situation is different.....what Marcus Allen did, has nothing to do with what Jackson will or won't do.....sure the stats of "RB's over 30" may show some type of trend or something, but it means nothing when looking at Jackson or any other RB for that matter....if you draft, or I guess, "don't draft" Jackson based on information like this I think you are making a big mistake.....if you pass on him because "RB's over 30 fall off a cliff" or whatever and he blows up and has a big year....using the excuse that I passed on him because "history has shown us whatever" seems pretty lame....

take a look at Jackson the player "right now"....his situation....make whatever assessment you decide and go from there......don't draft or not draft him based on Rodney Hampton and Franco Harris....

Don't misunderstand my post, I'm not saying you shouldn't draft him but at least be aware of the risk. Had you ignored history with all the RB's I mentioned then you would have been disappointed.

no...as I said...I wasn't attacking your post in particular...it could have been you or anybody else....

I just think using historical data on past players means nothing when trying to assess current players and their situations....I don't think it is a factor in a draft or don't draft situation.....some people do factor it in and I think it's crazy

 

[Leonidas]

Still wondering why people give Quizz so much love. He has never really been that much of an impact player and if there was ever a time for him to showcase his "goods" and demand more touches, it would have been with the plodder Michael Turner in town. He is virtually undraftable to me right now. It seems like some people assume that he just HAS to be involved.

Jackson will be able to pretty much fall down for a yard and get 10+ goaline TD's, let alone the ones he will score from distance in the open space he will have and the matchups where he will have an advantage in that open space.

One could argue that this team already has 3 receivers that demand double coverage. Think about that.

Jackson could get 5+ receiving TD's alone on screen passes or short play action sit down throws after Julio and Roddy take defenders down the field.

The other receivers are physical, good blocking receivers as well.

Jackson is a beast and a physical runner, in the open field, there will be a few guys that won't like to see him coming with a head of steam.

Fantasy=talent and opportunity....I'm actually trying to think of a more talented RB in a better "situation" and I can't come up with one.....

Sometimes we overanalyze and ignore things that are pretty obvious....I think Jackson is in line for a top 5 season...potentially top 3.....

Well that's a fine opinion but Rodgers caught 52 balls last year and started making bigger plays in the 2nd half of the season. You might want to see the moves he put on the Saints LB as he literally turns on a dime. He humiliated the Cowboys on a couple plays as well in this highlight footage.

I don't think it should be allowable to post videos of RB's against the 2012 Saints when campaigning for said RB.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I don't think it should be allowable to post videos of RB's against the 2012 Saints when campaigning for said RB.

LOL. Reminds me of the David Wilson thread.

 

[cstu]

I see posts like this a lot in the Shark Pool and I guess this is where my approach to fantasy football differs from many....

I could really care less about all the stuff above....it really means absolutely nothing when you look at Jackson for this upcoming season....every player and every situation is different.....what Marcus Allen did, has nothing to do with what Jackson will or won't do.....sure the stats of "RB's over 30" may show some type of trend or something, but it means nothing when looking at Jackson or any other RB for that matter....if you draft, or I guess, "don't draft" Jackson based on information like this I think you are making a big mistake.....if you pass on him because "RB's over 30 fall off a cliff" or whatever and he blows up and has a big year....using the excuse that I passed on him because "history has shown us whatever" seems pretty lame....

take a look at Jackson the player "right now"....his situation....make whatever assessment you decide and go from there......don't draft or not draft him based on Rodney Hampton and Franco Harris....

Don't misunderstand my post, I'm not saying you shouldn't draft him but at least be aware of the risk. Had you ignored history with all the RB's I mentioned then you would have been disappointed.

no...as I said...I wasn't attacking your post in particular...it could have been you or anybody else....

I just think using historical data on past players means nothing when trying to assess current players and their situations....I don't think it is a factor in a draft or don't draft situation.....some people do factor it in and I think it's crazy

I think it's crazy not to.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I see posts like this a lot in the Shark Pool and I guess this is where my approach to fantasy football differs from many....

I could really care less about all the stuff above....it really means absolutely nothing when you look at Jackson for this upcoming season....every player and every situation is different.....what Marcus Allen did, has nothing to do with what Jackson will or won't do.....sure the stats of "RB's over 30" may show some type of trend or something, but it means nothing when looking at Jackson or any other RB for that matter....if you draft, or I guess, "don't draft" Jackson based on information like this I think you are making a big mistake.....if you pass on him because "RB's over 30 fall off a cliff" or whatever and he blows up and has a big year....using the excuse that I passed on him because "history has shown us whatever" seems pretty lame....

take a look at Jackson the player "right now"....his situation....make whatever assessment you decide and go from there......don't draft or not draft him based on Rodney Hampton and Franco Harris....

Don't misunderstand my post, I'm not saying you shouldn't draft him but at least be aware of the risk. Had you ignored history with all the RB's I mentioned then you would have been disappointed.

no...as I said...I wasn't attacking your post in particular...it could have been you or anybody else....

I just think using historical data on past players means nothing when trying to assess current players and their situations....I don't think it is a factor in a draft or don't draft situation.....some people do factor it in and I think it's crazy

I think it's crazy not to.

1. what does what any of those guys did have to do with what Jackson will do?

2. and how exactly do you factor it in?...seriously I want to know this...are you are downgrading your projections for Jackson based on what Rodney Hampton, Franco Harris and Greald Riggs have done...?

if you want to say..."I think he is getting old, he has had a ton of carries, and has taken a beating"....fine.....but how exactly does what those other guys have done factor in...?...cause all it takes is one guy to "deviate from the norm" and that "factoring" goes out the window....because it isn't the same for all....

 

[Biabreakable]

I see posts like this a lot in the Shark Pool and I guess this is where my approach to fantasy football differs from many....

I could really care less about all the stuff above....it really means absolutely nothing when you look at Jackson for this upcoming season....every player and every situation is different.....what Marcus Allen did, has nothing to do with what Jackson will or won't do.....sure the stats of "RB's over 30" may show some type of trend or something, but it means nothing when looking at Jackson or any other RB for that matter....if you draft, or I guess, "don't draft" Jackson based on information like this I think you are making a big mistake.....if you pass on him because "RB's over 30 fall off a cliff" or whatever and he blows up and has a big year....using the excuse that I passed on him because "history has shown us whatever" seems pretty lame....

take a look at Jackson the player "right now"....his situation....make whatever assessment you decide and go from there......don't draft or not draft him based on Rodney Hampton and Franco Harris....

Don't misunderstand my post, I'm not saying you shouldn't draft him but at least be aware of the risk. Had you ignored history with all the RB's I mentioned then you would have been disappointed.

no...as I said...I wasn't attacking your post in particular...it could have been you or anybody else....

I just think using historical data on past players means nothing when trying to assess current players and their situations....I don't think it is a factor in a draft or don't draft situation.....some people do factor it in and I think it's crazy

I think it's crazy not to.

1. what does what any of those guys did have to do with what Jackson will do?

2. and how exactly do you factor it in?...seriously I want to know this...are you are downgrading your projections for Jackson based on what Rodney Hampton, Franco Harris and Greald Riggs have done...?

if you want to say..."I think he is getting old, he has had a ton of carries, and has taken a beating"....fine.....but how exactly does what those other guys have done factor in...?...cause all it takes is one guy to "deviate from the norm" and that "factoring" goes out the window....because it isn't the same for all....

When looking at all RB as a whole throughout history there are only a few exceptions to a RB performing at their peak performance at age 31. While any player could be an exception to this when the odds are against it over 100 to 1 you just might want to know what you are getting into when you decide to tie your team to a player crossing this threshold. It is not about one player compared to another it is the whole body of work of all players the player is compared to.

Those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it. You cannot manage for risk without 1st recognizing that there is risk.

The exception, the player who deviates from the norm would be an example to compare Jackson (or whoever) to. If you see factors that worked for the player who was an exception from the norm, then you can look for those same traits/situations and ask if you think that will give Jackson a chance to be an exception to? That is one way you might factor that it in. Conversely you might say all RB over x amount of carries had these outcomes at the same age and workload that Jackson is right now. Which is what ctsu did. This created a sample of examples that he detailed. No where does he say that what happened to those players in similar circumstances is what will happen with Jackson. I do not see how doing so hurts anything however. It is just more information to consider.

ZWK explains this pretty well in this thread here- http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=639987

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Atlanta Falcons RB Steven Jackson questioned the notion that a running back is officially toast at age 30. "This is not the '70s or '80s, when it was just hard-nosed football. The game has changed. As long as I can evolve with it, I'll be just fine." He's trying to fight off effects of age by going on a gluten-free diet.

 

[Grahamburn]

Atlanta Falcons RB Steven Jackson questioned the notion that a running back is officially toast at age 30. "This is not the '70s or '80s, when it was just hard-nosed football. The game has changed. As long as I can evolve with it, I'll be just fine." He's trying to fight off effects of age by going on a gluten-free diet.

I just can't help but think he's going to be an absolute monster...

 

[cstu]

Atlanta Falcons RB Steven Jackson questioned the notion that a running back is officially toast at age 30. "This is not the '70s or '80s, when it was just hard-nosed football. The game has changed. As long as I can evolve with it, I'll be just fine." He's trying to fight off effects of age by going on a gluten-free diet.

If only Edge, LT, Lewis and Portis had gone gluten-free.

 

[Shutout]

His latest quote strikes me as odd. He (SJAX) says he expects the "majority" of his contribution to be catches and the he thinks he will see the majority of his runs in the 2nd half. That doesn't sound odd on the surface but it seems like he is really in tune with how this team will operate and by him saying he thinks the majority of his contribution will come in the passing game, then what's going to happen?

He caught 90 balls one year, as rediculous as that sounds but even if he caught 100, then does that mean 80 rushes?

 

[We Tigers]

I read it as him saying he'll be doing more running to close out games, and more receiving in the first half. So, he might go to the half with 7 carries and 4 receptions, and then pick up another 10 rushes to close things out in the second half.

I also read it as being largely irrelevant since players commenting on their situations or projected usage in the offseason doesn't usually have much behind it. I'm sure Dez really thinks he can get to 2500 yards, too. The only thing I really take away from this is a confirmation that he'll probably get heavy use in the passing game, which we already suspected.

 

[Dippa]

I agree with this ^^^^. He's still learning the playbook anyways (btw, Ryan did say that Jackson has called him while away from the facility with questions about the playbook). Running the ball to close out games was a problem last year, so the coaching staff may have mentioned to him that they'd like to improve in that area. It will still depend on game situations, etc. IMO. Quizz actually had more receptions in the 2nd half of games last year, so I don't think I'd read too much into it.

As far as the passing game, Falcons RBs had 103 receptions last year in Koetter's first year, so even if Quizz gets a good number of receptions, that could be a big pie to go around. Koetter loves screens.

Also, Jackson looks like he's in great shape at OTAs. Many fans and others around the Falcons have commented on how jacked he looks.

 

[THE HITTER]

Steven Jackson is arguably one of the most talented RBs in the league. He's everything Turner has been for ATL, plus a solid receiving threat. I don't believe Jaquizz Rodgers is anything more than a COP back and his numbers will not have any affect on Jackson's. Jackson may be ancient to the dynasty folks, but I could see him ending his career strong, similar to Curtis Martin when he was 30. The opportunity is there for many TDs, which Jackson hasn't seen for six seasons. #2 RB price with #1 RB upside. I'll buy. 280/1250/12 rushing40/320/2 receiving

Agree with Kleck here. As an Atlanta resident who follows the daily Falcons camp reports, media blitzes, and coaches comments, I think many are, and have always been, misguided on Quizz'z value. I don't believe Smith ever thought of Quizz as anything more than a dynamic 3rd down CoP back due to his potential to hit a home run on any given play in space. He had to talk him up in order to not talk down Turner. But thats not been the case with SJax. Smith and the entire camp, as well as the players, have been nothing short of enamored with him since he arrived. Recent comments from Smith, plus the lack of a pass rush, plus the difficult schedule against good-to-great offenses (resulting in a lot of high-scoring shootouts)...and all this suggests to me that Jackson's in for a bigger year than fans expect.

285 carries X 4.4 per = 1,254 yards/ 13 TDs rushing

62 receptions/ 430 yards/ 4 TDs receiving

 

[Biabreakable]

Dude's ADP seems to be early to mid-second round right now. Do you guys like him at that price vs Forte and Morris or a top-shelf receiver like Dez and Marshal?

In PPR I have Forte and Jackson ahead of Morris and Bryant. Brandon Marshall, Forte and Jackson all around the same tier. Non PPR I have Moris in the same tier as Forte and Jackson with Marshall falling out of that tier.

 

[silentcoach]

This is one of those situations where preseason games can help the drafter gauge how they intend to use SJax. Of course, this is moot if he barely gets any action.

At his current ADP I'm pretty sure if I rather have Forte over SJax, but for PRICE I rather have mcfadden at rb 21 or Murray at rb 19 than SJackson.

 

[We Tigers]

This is one of those situations where preseason games can help the drafter gauge how they intend to use SJax. Of course, this is moot if he barely gets any action.

At his current ADP I'm pretty sure if I rather have Forte over SJax, but for PRICE I rather have mcfadden at rb 21 or Murray at rb 19 than SJackson.

I think you'll learn more about Forte in the preseason than Jackson. He never plays much in the preseason. Forte may get a little showtime in Trestman's O.

Forte's gonna catch a lot of passes, but Jackson's gonna score more touchdowns as long as Michael Bush is still on Chicago. I'd consider Forte over Jackson in a full PPR and definitely take Jackson elsewhere.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is one of those situations where preseason games can help the drafter gauge how they intend to use SJax. Of course, this is moot if he barely gets any action.

At his current ADP I'm pretty sure if I rather have Forte over SJax, but for PRICE I rather have mcfadden at rb 21 or Murray at rb 19 than SJackson.

Well I have McFail and Murray on my do not draft list. So I am not seeing a lot of value there. I am sure they have some value to someone, just not me.

 

[silentcoach]

This is one of those situations where preseason games can help the drafter gauge how they intend to use SJax. Of course, this is moot if he barely gets any action.

At his current ADP I'm pretty sure if I rather have Forte over SJax, but for PRICE I rather have mcfadden at rb 21 or Murray at rb 19 than SJackson.

Well I have McFail and Murray on my do not draft list. So I am not seeing a lot of value there. I am sure they have some value to someone, just not me.

Players that disappoint the prior year usually are value the next year because they drop so much because people are sour. From 1st rd to 3rd round? It's not like their talent disappeared completely--I'll bite.

 

[Grahamburn]

This is one of those situations where preseason games can help the drafter gauge how they intend to use SJax. Of course, this is moot if he barely gets any action.

At his current ADP I'm pretty sure if I rather have Forte over SJax, but for PRICE I rather have mcfadden at rb 21 or Murray at rb 19 than SJackson.

Jackson is only expected to see light work, probably around 15-25 carries, during the Falcons' four preseason games, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

It's pretty clear how they'll use him.

Michael Turner never scored fewer than 10 TDs in Atlanta, and his worst fantasy finish was RB22 when he only played 11 games. I'm excited to see what Jackson can do in this offense and believe he's a RB1 who can be had as a RB2 in 12 team leagues.

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

This is one of those situations where preseason games can help the drafter gauge how they intend to use SJax. Of course, this is moot if he barely gets any action.

At his current ADP I'm pretty sure if I rather have Forte over SJax, but for PRICE I rather have mcfadden at rb 21 or Murray at rb 19 than SJackson.

Jackson is only expected to see light work, probably around 15-25 carries, during the Falcons' four preseason games, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

It's pretty clear how they'll use him.

Michael Turner never scored fewer than 10 TDs in Atlanta, and his worst fantasy finish was RB22 when he only played 11 games. I'm excited to see what Jackson can do in this offense and believe he's a RB1 who can be had as a RB2 in 12 team leagues.

I agree with this. Lots of drafters have issues with him but I think he'll be fantastic. They won't be able to stack the box like they did against him in St. Louis.

 

[Lord Lucan]

I remember back in 2004 agonising over picking Jackson in the first round of my Dynasty League. I needed a RB, but some draft guides were banging on and on about how many carries he had had in college and high school and basically saying that if you drafted him you were "buying a used car" (I remember that actual phrase being used). That nearly put me off, and it was only narrowly I preferred him to the alternatives, which from memory were the mighty Chris Perry and Kevin Jones. He has had fall-offs predicted a few times since, and obviously it will happen some day, but some guys just seem to have different constitutions to others, and I'm not sure I want to bet the first year he has a passing offense to play behind/less box stacking will be the year his performance plunges.

 

[Yitbos69]

This is one of those situations where preseason games can help the drafter gauge how they intend to use SJax. Of course, this is moot if he barely gets any action.

At his current ADP I'm pretty sure if I rather have Forte over SJax, but for PRICE I rather have mcfadden at rb 21 or Murray at rb 19 than SJackson.

Jackson is only expected to see light work, probably around 15-25 carries, during the Falcons' four preseason games, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

It's pretty clear how they'll use him.

Michael Turner never scored fewer than 10 TDs in Atlanta, and his worst fantasy finish was RB22 when he only played 11 games. I'm excited to see what Jackson can do in this offense and believe he's a RB1 who can be had as a RB2 in 12 team leagues.

Coach Smith was talking up Jackson's abilities to catch the ball.....he said its great to have a player like Jackson because you don't have to change personnel on passing downs and go to a cop back......Jackson gives ATL. A true every down back and that is how it sounds smith is going to use him

268/1250/11 60/500/3

 

[silentcoach]

This is one of those situations where preseason games can help the drafter gauge how they intend to use SJax. Of course, this is moot if he barely gets any action.

At his current ADP I'm pretty sure if I rather have Forte over SJax, but for PRICE I rather have mcfadden at rb 21 or Murray at rb 19 than SJackson.

Jackson is only expected to see light work, probably around 15-25 carries, during the Falcons' four preseason games, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

It's pretty clear how they'll use him.

Michael Turner never scored fewer than 10 TDs in Atlanta, and his worst fantasy finish was RB22 when he only played 11 games. I'm excited to see what Jackson can do in this offense and believe he's a RB1 who can be had as a RB2 in 12 team leagues.

Coach Smith was talking up Jackson's abilities to catch the ball.....he said its great to have a player like Jackson because you don't have to change personnel on passing downs and go to a cop back......Jackson gives ATL. A true every down back and that is how it sounds smith is going to use him

268/1250/11 60/500/3

the pass targets sure will be interesting to see. Turner received around 30 targets last year and Rodgers got 61.

Assuming no increase and giving SJackson 65% of the targets results in 44 receptions using his career catch %.

60% of the rec targets would result in 40 receptions.

So, having seen that I think 40 receptions is a SAFE floor, which assumes that the offense does not change their pass distribution to rbs (of course it may go up because SJax is around, but I'm looking at a floor of receptions).

 

[silentcoach]

The rushing attempts are all over the place. Last year Turner and Rodgers combined for 316 attempts and the year before for 358 attempts. The falcons seem to be more of passing team so I think 330 attempts for the top 2 rbs seems about right.

Turner took 70 and 84% of those rushing stats, but rodgers was a rookie when Turner averaged 84% so I think a 75% scew in favor of SJacskon is reasonable.

That would give SJackson around 247 attempts for the year.

So, combining my two posts above, I have Sjackson at

247 attempts rushing for 1037 yards rushing (career avg of 4.2**), 44 receptions for 360 yards and 10 tds.

**His 4.2 may go up since the offense is better so you can mess with this number. 4.4 is a safe prediction.

 

[Leonidas]

The rushing attempts are all over the place. Last year Turner and Rodgers combined for 316 attempts and the year before for 358 attempts. The falcons seem to be more of passing team so I think 330 attempts for the top 2 rbs seems about right.

Turner took 70 and 84% of those rushing stats, but rodgers was a rookie when Turner averaged 84% so I think a 75% scew in favor of SJacskon is reasonable.

That would give SJackson around 247 attempts or the year.

So, combining my two posts above, I have Sjackson at

247 attempts rushing for 1037 yards rushing (carerr avg of 4.2) and 44 receptions for 360 yards and 10 tds.

I think one of the big reasons ATL ran the ball less last year was that they didn't have a good, reliable RB to give it to.

In other words, I blame an old and broken down Turner for his lack of attempts/opportunity more than I 'blame' his team/situation simply choosing to pass.

 

[silentcoach]

The rushing attempts are all over the place. Last year Turner and Rodgers combined for 316 attempts and the year before for 358 attempts. The falcons seem to be more of passing team so I think 330 attempts for the top 2 rbs seems about right.

Turner took 70 and 84% of those rushing stats, but rodgers was a rookie when Turner averaged 84% so I think a 75% scew in favor of SJacskon is reasonable.

That would give SJackson around 247 attempts or the year.

So, combining my two posts above, I have Sjackson at

247 attempts rushing for 1037 yards rushing (carerr avg of 4.2) and 44 receptions for 360 yards and 10 tds.

I think one of the big reasons ATL ran the ball less last year was that they didn't have a good, reliable RB to give it to.

In other words, I blame an old and broken down Turner for his lack of attempts/opportunity more than I 'blame' his team/situation simply choosing to pass.

True, but 1 year ago Turner ran well, so even if you assume 358 rushing attempts for the top 2 rbs, and give SJackson 75%, THEN his rushing attempts is still only 269--so anyone predicting 260ish rushing attempts is looking at more of a ceiling, and less of a floor/baseline.

 

[-jb-]

If I find myself drafting from a mid-round pick in redrafts, I am seriously considering going Calvin/Jackson. I have always been a fan, and I truly believe this will be his renaissance. The dude deserves some post-season glory, and he's finally in a place to get it. I think he's going to be hungrier than ever, and I have no issues with the age-associated risk.

275/1215

40/280

13 TDs

 

[steveski]

If I find myself drafting from a mid-round pick in redrafts, I am seriously considering going Calvin/Jackson. I have always been a fan, and I truly believe this will be his renaissance. The dude deserves some post-season glory, and he's finally in a place to get it. I think he's going to be hungrier than ever, and I have no issues with the age-associated risk.

275/1215

40/280

13 TDs

Agree. Him and Gonzo are going to give it their all this season so they can tell their grandchildren about it in the next couple years.

 

[RBM]

Money in the bank this year

250/1100/13

45/330/2

 

[lionsroar]

last year a terrible michael turner had almost 1,100 combined yards and 11 tds. last year on a terrible rams team jackson had almost 1,400 combined yards with 4 tds. There is no way that jackson doesnt have at least 1,600 combined yards and 14 tds this year. He will get 6 tds alone from pass interferences in the endzone resulting in 1st and goal from the 1. at an adp of rb 12 or 13 over all he screams value. He is a top 5 rb this year. book it.

 

[Biabreakable]

The rushing attempts are all over the place. Last year Turner and Rodgers combined for 316 attempts and the year before for 358 attempts. The falcons seem to be more of passing team so I think 330 attempts for the top 2 rbs seems about right.

Turner took 70 and 84% of those rushing stats, but rodgers was a rookie when Turner averaged 84% so I think a 75% scew in favor of SJacskon is reasonable.

That would give SJackson around 247 attempts or the year.

So, combining my two posts above, I have Sjackson at

247 attempts rushing for 1037 yards rushing (carerr avg of 4.2) and 44 receptions for 360 yards and 10 tds.

I think one of the big reasons ATL ran the ball less last year was that they didn't have a good, reliable RB to give it to.

In other words, I blame an old and broken down Turner for his lack of attempts/opportunity more than I 'blame' his team/situation simply choosing to pass.

True, but 1 year ago Turner ran well, so even if you assume 358 rushing attempts for the top 2 rbs, and give SJackson 75%, THEN his rushing attempts is still only 269--so anyone predicting 260ish rushing attempts is looking at more of a ceiling, and less of a floor/baseline.

You are missing 44 rushing attempts from Jason Snelling in 2011. Turner had 301 rushing attempts that season.

 

[oswizzle]

Action Jackson has a serious chance to lead all RB in TD's .... He's going to be a Goal Line Monster

 

[unckeyherb]

I posted this in a different thread, but it should be here:

SJax hasn't faced less than 17 in the box since Holt retired. Matty Ice throwing to Julio/Roddy/Gonzo by default makes his offensive line better at run protection.

SJax is a bruiser that they can use to close out games (something they didn't do well last year at all) as well as a legit pass catcher who can stay on the field for all three downs (something they've not had since Warrick Dunn). Turner averaged 12 TD's as the starter in Atlanta not because he is a great RB but because of how prolific this offense is. That hasn't changed. SJax may lead the league in TDs this year. Seriously.

288 @ 4.1 for 1180 rush/12 TDs 55 rec's @ 8.0 for 440 rec/4 TDs. 313 FFP's or Top 3 RB last year.

Stud.

 

[unckeyherb]

Did anyone watch Saturday's game against Tennessee? Only got to watch their opening drive but he looked damn good, breaking off a 10 yarder right out of the gate and catching a shuttle pass as well

Didn't look slow to me; hit the holes hard and ran tough. Obviously very excited for his prospects this season.

ETA: final stats were 12 for 51 (4.25 ypc) and 3 catches for 15.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Statistically and over his career how is Jackson as a short-yardage runner?

 

[FF Ninja]

Statistically and over his career how is Jackson as a short-yardage runner?

Inside the 5:

7-13-3

11-17-5

19-28-8

8-0-2

8-7-3

13-15-3

10-0-2

5-1-3

9-11-2

So that totals up 90 carries for 92 yards and 31 TDs.

I'd say 34% is pretty good considering he was pretty much the ONLY threat on that team for most of those years.

 

[Sabertooth]

Took him as my RB2 in a recent redraft league. Backed him up with Demarco Murray and Leveon Bell. Hoping he makes it through the season.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Statistically and over his career how is Jackson as a short-yardage runner?

Inside the 5:

7-13-3

11-17-5

19-28-8

8-0-2

8-7-3

13-15-3

10-0-2

5-1-3

9-11-2

So that totals up 90 carries for 92 yards and 31 TDs.

I'd say 34% is pretty good considering he was pretty much the ONLY threat on that team for most of those years.

Is 34% typically good? I really dont know. I thought I read years back that Jackson was one of the worst (or considered bad) in short yardage.

 

[We Tigers]

Statistically and over his career how is Jackson as a short-yardage runner?

I don't for his career, but I did his last two seasons earlier in the thread, and he has an 18.5% red zone rushing TD percentage in those seasons. Turner's was 16.5%, and he scored 11 and 10 rushing TDs in the last two seasons.