Player Spotlight: Tatum Bell (1 Viewer)

[P Boy]

Do I get the job?

Nope.

Damn.

 

[Confucius]

Do I get the job?

Nope.

Damn.

If you coach like you play fantasy football no wonder even the volunteer YMCA team won't let you in the facility.

 

[SSOG]

Of course they will clime, but I would imgain for only one of the RBs and not both. THe others will likely fall, like Bell's did last year. This wont happen until preseason however. With these RBs being drafted so close together and fairly early, I would think a person would want to aquire both. At those ADPs it will not be easy like it was last year.

So... your conclusions are as follows.#1) Whoever is clearly going to be the starter by preseason will see his ADP rise.

#2) It is very expensive to try to acquire both RBs.

As a result, you're saying that it's *NOT A GOOD IDEA* to try to figure out who the #1 guy in Denver will be at this point in time? From those two points, I come to the exact opposite conclusion. The logical "therefore" is as follows:

#3) THEREFORE, it would behoove the fantasy player to find out which guy is going to be the #1 as early as possible, so he can get him without wasting a second pick and without waiting until the ADP climbs.

So there you go, you've just answered your question about why anyone bothers with the Denver situation at this time of the season.

Word is that Bell has worked on his strength and size this offseason. Is that true?

Nope. He opened last season weighing 213. After getting injured right before Thanksgiving, he could no longer lift weights. That, combined with the wear and tear of the season, had him finishing the year weighing 203. He's currently back up to 208 pounds, and hopes to enter the preseason at... you guessed it, 213. In other words, no bigger than last season.

Let me ask you guys a question. Have either of you ever coached football?

Boy, that sure blew up in your face, didn't it?You want to go ahead and make the point you were trying to make, though? I mean, nobody pulls out the "have you ever coached" or the "do you even WATCH the games" arguements unless they are trying to make a point.

I'm with you on 90% of the stuff you write about the Broncos SSOG, but the simple mathematical fact is, Shanny has not been able to see Bell in the NFL for years. There's no getting around that.

Well, if you want to get technical about it, Shanahan's been hoping that Bell would be a workhorse capable of carrying the load ever since he drafted Bell, over 2 years ago. But all technicality and smart-alecy responses aside... Shanahan's had *PLENTY OF TIME* to see Bell in practice. Bell's been active on game day for 29 of Denver's 32 games. That means he practiced for 29 of the 32 weeks of the season, combined with at least one full preseason's worth of action, combined with any other camps or whatever.Bell wasn't missing practice his rookie season. He was behind the 8-ball because of his injury, which is why he didn't get a lot of in-game carries (he was still assimilating the offense and learning the position), but he was healthy enough to practice and play. He got 2 carries in week 1, 4 in week 2, 2 in week 5, 6 in week 6, and then had more carries again in weeks 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17. He was active on game day 14 times that season. So yes, Shanahan has been looking at him in practice and in games for YEARS. Basically two complete seasons, minus a handful of weeks here or there.

If you coach like you play fantasy football no wonder even the volunteer YMCA team won't let you in the facility.

Confucius say: "Man who lives in glass house should not throw stones. Nor should he criticise how one man plays fantasy football when he is openly projecting a 2000 yard season from a guy whose coach says won't get more than a dozen carries a game".

 

[JohnnyU]

Confucius say: "Man who lives in glass house should not throw stones. Nor should he criticise how one man plays fantasy football when he is openly projecting a 2000 yard season from a guy whose coach says won't get more than a dozen carries a game".

He also says man who go to bed with itchy butt wake up with smelly fingers.

 

[jurb26]

Let me ask you guys a question. Have either of you ever coached football?

Boy, that sure blew up in your face, didn't it?You want to go ahead and make the point you were trying to make, though? I mean, nobody pulls out the "have you ever coached" or the "do you even WATCH the games" arguements unless they are trying to make a point.

Actually, no I already knew PB did. Have you? This is just out of curiosity but you can keep pounding your chest as if there is something to be gained.

 

[jurb26]

#3) THEREFORE, it would behoove the fantasy player to find out which guy is going to be the #1 as early as possible, so he can get him without wasting a second pick and without waiting until the ADP climbs.

So there you go, you've just answered your question about why anyone bothers with the Denver situation at this time of the season.

Yes, because so many people answered that question correctly at this time last year huh?

 

[SSOG]

Actually, no I already knew PB did. Have you? This is just out of curiosity but you can keep pounding your chest as if there is something to be gained.

Oh, it was just out of curiousity. I thought you were trying to make a point, and decided against it.Anyway, no, I have never coached football at any level.

I have a question for you, though... just out of curiousity. If you already knew PB coached football, then why did you say "either of you"?

 

[SSOG]

#3) THEREFORE, it would behoove the fantasy player to find out which guy is going to be the #1 as early as possible, so he can get him without wasting a second pick and without waiting until the ADP climbs.

So there you go, you've just answered your question about why anyone bothers with the Denver situation at this time of the season.

Yes, because so many people answered that question correctly at this time last year huh?

Oh, and just because they got it wrong last year, suddenly that means they shouldn't try this year?Besides, I wasn't one of those who got it wrong last year. Does that mean that I'm qualified to speculate on Denver's RB situation again this year, and every subsequent year until I *do* get it wrong (which will certainly happen eventually. It is a mathematical certainty that one day I will have a firm belief regarding Denver's rushing situation that proves to be absolutely and catastrophically wrong).

Also, what are you recommending? I mean, if nobody follows the Denver situation, then nobody would draft Denver RBs. Are you saying that you wouldn't even draft Ron Dayne with the final selection of any of your early drafts? Or does there exist a point where you would actually consider drafting Dayne, or Bell? Because if that point exists, then surely it would make sense to be prepared and as knowledgeable about the situation as possible. I mean, SOMEONE is going to end up with Denver backs this year. Are you advocating that nobody do any speculating about them at all, and just throw darts at a board to determine who gets them and when?

 

[jurb26]

Actually, no I already knew PB did. Have you? This is just out of curiosity but you can keep pounding your chest as if there is something to be gained.

Oh, it was just out of curiousity. I thought you were trying to make a point, and decided against it.Anyway, no, I have never coached football at any level.

I have a question for you, though... just out of curiousity. If you already knew PB coached football, then why did you say "either of you"?

Just to see what extent he has. I have coached and know many coaches and it's interesting to see how his and others opinions differ. Most coaches I know happen to value real game time evalutaitons far more heavily then what they see in practice. Actually some take it as far as saying that those are the ONLY time sthey will seriously grade a player. There were some earlier comments regarding practice and it simply made me think of how different some coaches may take those situations. My college couch was one such person. He would flat out tell the team that the spring game or live scrimmages are the only grading tools he uses until the regular season starts. A guy could have had the best camp of all the palyers, but if he chocked in these "games" then he would not start and would have to prove himself in whatever action he saw in the real games. These comments were directed towards Shanny and I have no idea what his take or approach is on the matter. So therefor there was no point other than my curiosity towards the posters which has nothing to do with this thread. So there, no you know my point which in effect is a hijack, so my apologies... but since you just had to know.

 

[jurb26]

#3) THEREFORE, it would behoove the fantasy player to find out which guy is going to be the #1 as early as possible, so he can get him without wasting a second pick and without waiting until the ADP climbs.

So there you go, you've just answered your question about why anyone bothers with the Denver situation at this time of the season.

Yes, because so many people answered that question correctly at this time last year huh?

Oh, and just because they got it wrong last year, suddenly that means they shouldn't try this year?Besides, I wasn't one of those who got it wrong last year. Does that mean that I'm qualified to speculate on Denver's RB situation again this year, and every subsequent year until I *do* get it wrong (which will certainly happen eventually. It is a mathematical certainty that one day I will have a firm belief regarding Denver's rushing situation that proves to be absolutely and catastrophically wrong).

Also, what are you recommending? I mean, if nobody follows the Denver situation, then nobody would draft Denver RBs. Are you saying that you wouldn't even draft Ron Dayne with the final selection of any of your early drafts? Or does there exist a point where you would actually consider drafting Dayne, or Bell? Because if that point exists, then surely it would make sense to be prepared and as knowledgeable about the situation as possible. I mean, SOMEONE is going to end up with Denver backs this year. Are you advocating that nobody do any speculating about them at all, and just throw darts at a board to determine who gets them and when?

I didn't get it wrong last year either, big deal. No, I'm advocating that if you want the Den RB this year, then draft both. It will cost you 2 of your 1st 7 picks, but if your that sold and think its your best option then go for it. It is not nearly as cheap as last year though.

 

[moleculo]

I didn't get it wrong last year either, big deal. No, I'm advocating that if you want the Den RB this year, then draft both. It will cost you 2 of your 1st 7 picks, but if your that sold and think its your best option then go for it. It is not nearly as cheap as last year though.

Personally, I have a general rule not to draft Denver or Oakland players, becuse I find I can't grade them as subjectively as I should. While I feel that I am as in tune with what is happening in Dove Valley as much as the next guy, I tend to overvalue them. It is very difficult to not draft with your heart and emotions. SSOG, I know you are trying to be as rational as you can in your evaluations, but do you really think it is wise to take your own medicine here? Would you REALLY draft Dayne and/or Bell as one of the first 15 RB's in the first 5 rounds?

 

[SSOG]

Just to see what extent he has. I have coached and know many coaches and it's interesting to see how his and others opinions differ. Most coaches I know happen to value real game time evalutaitons far more heavily then what they see in practice. Actually some take it as far as saying that those are the ONLY time sthey will seriously grade a player. There were some earlier comments regarding practice and it simply made me think of how different some coaches may take those situations. My college couch was one such person. He would flat out tell the team that the spring game or live scrimmages are the only grading tools he uses until the regular season starts. A guy could have had the best camp of all the palyers, but if he chocked in these "games" then he would not start and would have to prove himself in whatever action he saw in the real games. These comments were directed towards Shanny and I have no idea what his take or approach is on the matter. So therefor there was no point other than my curiosity towards the posters which has nothing to do with this thread. So there, no you know my point which in effect is a hijack, so my apologies... but since you just had to know.

Thanks for telling me. Hijack or not, I was honestly curious, and that certainly was a very interesting reason.

I didn't get it wrong last year either, big deal. No, I'm advocating that if you want the Den RB this year, then draft both. It will cost you 2 of your 1st 7 picks, but if your that sold and think its your best option then go for it. It is not nearly as cheap as last year though.

Even if you have to draft both...Final 2005 rankings of RB1 and RB2 in Denver: 10th and 22nd.

Initial 2006 ADP of RB1 and RB2 in Denver: 25th and 35th.

Even if you draft Tatum Bell as the 25th RB off the board and he doesn't expand his role AT ALL from last season, you still got value there (albeit slight value). Combined with his upside should he finally win the job, I would say that Tatum Bell represents value at RB25, even if you don't think he's going to get more than 800-900 yards or 12 carries a game.

And as for Ron Dayne... if you believe he's going to get even 35% of Denver's carries, getting him at RB35 is absolutely criminal.

Personally, I have a general rule not to draft Denver or Oakland players, becuse I find I can't grade them as subjectively as I should. While I feel that I am as in tune with what is happening in Dove Valley as much as the next guy, I tend to overvalue them. It is very difficult to not draft with your heart and emotions.

SSOG, I know you are trying to be as rational as you can in your evaluations, but do you really think it is wise to take your own medicine here? Would you REALLY draft Dayne and/or Bell as one of the first 15 RB's in the first 5 rounds?

Yup. If his ADP warrented such an action, I'd take Dayne in the very early third, possibly even late second depending on what everyone else was doing. If preseason opens and he's clearly and unequivocably in the Mike Anderson role, I'd take him possibly as early as the early second to very late first (pick 1.11 or pick 1.12).Now, keep in mind, that's where I would theoretically draft him if everyone were drastically higher on Dayne than they are right now. In practice, of course I'm not going to grab him in the third, since I could just as easily wait until the 5th, 7th, or possibly even 9th and still wind up with him.

 

[P Boy]

Actually, no I already knew PB did.  Have you?  This is just out of curiosity but you can keep pounding your chest as if there is something to be gained.

I honestly didn't understand why you asked the question. It is just reasonable & rational to know that a head coach and any member of the coaching staff to have a much greater insight into their opinions regarding a player, and also to have a much more explicit and defined set of data from which to make decisions regarding that player than anyone here possibly could have.

 

[Big Score]

I just wanted to give a quick shout out to SSOG & Pony Boy, for their take on the Denver RB situation.

Ya done good guys. Keep it coming.

 

[P Boy]

I just wanted to give a quick shout out to SSOG & Pony Boy, for their take on the Denver RB situation.

Ya done good guys. Keep it coming.

Yeah, right up to the time when Sapp gets 22 carries in week 2...

 

[CravenM]

In 15 games, TBell was #19 in total yards last year (921) and 8 TDS while maintaining the highest yards per carry average (5.3) of any of the top 30 RBs.

Mike Anderson had 239 carries which is about 40% more carries - he had an average of 4.2 and 12 TDs.

I have to imagine that TBell will get more carries this year than last - he's going to be stronger and better than he was last year and have been in the system for more time than RDayne.

If he only gets 30% more carries and his YPC goes down to 5.0, you figure he'll get about 225 carries for about 1125 yards and perhaps 12 TDs. I don't see him getting much in the way of receiving yards - perhaps 150 to 200.

As far as FFL scoring goes, I'd put that in the rank of about 8 - 10 among RBs.

 

[Longrifle]

Rushes 252

Rushing Yards 1260

Rush TDs 11

Receptions 20

Receiving Yards 160

Receiving TDs 1

Do not be fooled by Shanny. He lies and his lies lie. This is based more on the fact that I also have not fath in Dayne taking the starting spot and that they share carries with Bell getting most of the work, and being pulled out in short yrdage and goal line.

 

[ThePittbully]

Do I get the job?

Nope.

I predict bell has a season much like last season, with dayne taking over the role of mike anderson. Bell rushing for somewhere between 750 and 900 yards and dayne topping out somewhere just above 1000

 

[SSOG]

Do not be fooled by Shanny. He lies and his lies lie.

Can I please have an example of Mike Shanahan lying? I mean, if he lies so often like everyone says, it should be easy to come up with an example of Shanahan lying, not counting the time he misreported an injury in-game and then corrected it afterwards.

 

[Donnybrook]

Tatum Bell

Rushes 248

Rushing Yards 1009

Rush TDs 8

Receptions 27

Receiving Yards 225

Receiving TDs 0

I can’t ignore the fact that both Bell and Dayne (mostly with Giants) have proven themselves wanting on short yardage downs. Despite his size, Dayne is more like Bell than many realize. It would not surprise me to see a third power back enter the fray in training camp or pre-season. Just who it may be is any ones guess.

 

[lord_helmet]

Also, how is it disinformation that Shanahan says he's hoping that Bell gets better? What is he supposed to say, "Personally, I don't know why Bell bothers competing, since he has no shot in hell at winning the job. Actually, I hope he gets worse."?

Not quite what Shanny said SSOG. He specifically hopes Bell gets over the hump of carrying the ball late in games.

If Shanny has already determined that Dayne will carry X number of times & Bell will get X number of carries, why is he hoping Bell gets over the late game carry hump?

You can go ahead and write that off as unimportant if you like and Shanny just saying he hopes Bell improves, but not me.

I'm in this guys corner, they're clinging to a comment by Sundquist weeks ago.. Dayne sucks, so of course they'll love to get Bell more carries. And if he doesn't pan out they might even turn to Cobbs, good luck trying to figure this one out

 

[fsufan]

Despite his size, Dayne is more like Bell than many realize.

I agree. I do not see Dayne filling the MA role.

 

[Domination]

Also, how is it disinformation that Shanahan says he's hoping that Bell gets better? What is he supposed to say, "Personally, I don't know why Bell bothers competing, since he has no shot in hell at winning the job. Actually, I hope he gets worse."?

Not quite what Shanny said SSOG. He specifically hopes Bell gets over the hump of carrying the ball late in games.

If Shanny has already determined that Dayne will carry X number of times & Bell will get X number of carries, why is he hoping Bell gets over the late game carry hump?

You can go ahead and write that off as unimportant if you like and Shanny just saying he hopes Bell improves, but not me.

I'm in this guys corner, they're clinging to a comment by Sundquist weeks ago.. Dayne sucks, so of course they'll love to get Bell more carries. And if he doesn't pan out they might even turn to Cobbs, good luck trying to figure this one out

The Denver RB question is brought up every year because of the production that you get from them. But IMO I try to avoid them all if possible, and get a RB that I know that I can count on. I can count a number of leagues that guys have worried too much about getting a Denver RB or both and it cost them alot of other talent or at least a season.

 

[SSOG]

Also, how is it disinformation that Shanahan says he's hoping that Bell gets better? What is he supposed to say, "Personally, I don't know why Bell bothers competing, since he has no shot in hell at winning the job. Actually, I hope he gets worse."?

Not quite what Shanny said SSOG. He specifically hopes Bell gets over the hump of carrying the ball late in games.

If Shanny has already determined that Dayne will carry X number of times & Bell will get X number of carries, why is he hoping Bell gets over the late game carry hump?

You can go ahead and write that off as unimportant if you like and Shanny just saying he hopes Bell improves, but not me.

I'm in this guys corner, they're clinging to a comment by Sundquist weeks ago.. Dayne sucks, so of course they'll love to get Bell more carries. And if he doesn't pan out they might even turn to Cobbs, good luck trying to figure this one out

"We" aren't "clinging" to a comment by Sundquist weeks ago. We're "clinging" to a comment by Sundquist weeks ago, and three or more comments by Mike Shanahan over the past year and a half, combined with the fact that NOBODY WHO MATTERS HAS EVER SAID OTHERWISE.Shanny and Sundquist have both said that Bell's carries will be limited. Who, aside from Tatum Bell himself, has ever said they wouldn't be?

I agree that they'd love to get Bell more carries. I disagree that it's all that likely to happen at this stage of the game.

 

[Dman30]

Who the heck is SSOG?

Tatum Bell clearly should be given a shot to show what he can do...put up or shut up. Quentin Griffin was given a shot to carry the load and showed he couldn't. Bell needs the same opportunity....within three to four weeks we should know whether or no he can shoulder the load. I believe he can...and therefore he will.

 

[SSOG]

Who the heck is SSOG?

Tatum Bell clearly should be given a shot to show what he can do...put up or shut up. Quentin Griffin was given a shot to carry the load and showed he couldn't. Bell needs the same opportunity....within three to four weeks we should know whether or no he can shoulder the load. I believe he can...and therefore he will.

What do you mean, who am I? I'm a fan of the Denver Broncos, and a fantasy football player.If you think that Tatum Bell hasn't been given a shot, then you're mistaken. He's had training camps, preseasons, practices, game situations, etc. In fact, that's one of the things Denver does best- give everyone their shot.

If Tatum Bell really bulks up and stops wearing down late in games and in the season (it's an easily observable fact that Tatum Bell is not nearly as good of a runner after 12 or so carries or 8 or so weeks), then he'll be the #1 RB and carry the whole load. If he doesn't, then he won't.