Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Could be dynasty or redraft (please specify) Certain players you are willing to draft ahead of their ADP. Guys that you just can't wait on and hope are still there in later rounds.
MFL shows his ADP as the #4 QB. I don't see reaching more than that. But maybe higher than the 29th overall.It's still early July, but I think I might reach for Justin Herbert
I haven't seen him go that high. I typically see a tier of Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Murray, and Dak, and then a pause before a mini-tier of Wilson and Herbert and then a pause again before you get into Hurts, Burrow, Brady, Stafford, etc.MFL shows his ADP as the #4 QB. I don't see reaching more than that. But maybe higher than the 29th overall.
A reach around?It's still early July, but I think I might reach for Justin Herbert
Reach a round, reach a round ya stunodA reach around?
I hear ya, and this is a great post you made, but the caveat is when you are looking at unique players and/or the end of the major tiers. Those situations can/do require a 'go getta' mentality. I try to analyze ADPs maximally heading into drafts/auctions each year and will gladly reach a round - even two - as necessary, for said moments.One thing that has helped me a lot in the last few seasons is I stopped reaching. I am far more independent and trusting of my tier rankings than say 5-6 years ago. I think in general, we overrate how good we are at identifying specific players. Even within Tiers I try to find similar players. Somebody reached for Swift? I’m on board with CEH with less competition. Terry McLaurin and Michael Thomas off the board at the turn? I still believe in Cee Dee Lamb and Keenan Allen. “Next 3” TEs (Andrews, Hock & Pitts) are gone. I don’t think it’s a ginormous drop to Goedert or Fant.
Although I do find value in projections, I am not married to a ranking list. That’s why I have Tier lists. I don’t want to put myself on tilt just because I missed that one guy I needed. I can’t even count how many times I left a draft pissed bc I missed players W and X, had to “settle” on Y and Z - and actually ended up better for it at year end.
Range of outcomes will serve you better than binary thinking.
MFL might be off. Wilson is listed as QB 20I haven't seen him go that high. I typically see a tier of Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Murray, and Dak, and then a pause before a mini-tier of Wilson and Herbert and then a pause again before you get into Hurts, Burrow, Brady, Stafford, etc.
i Ceeeeee wut u did there...I hear ya, and this is a great post you made, but the caveat is when you are looking at unique players and/or the end of the major tiers. Those situations can/do require a 'go getta' mentality. I try to analyze ADPs maximally heading into drafts/auctions each year and will gladly reach a round - even two - as necessary, for said moments.
Is that Zach?MFL might be off. Wilson is listed as QB 20
I tend to do a similar thing, and will sometimes go a step further and purposely pass on guys that I have other later ADP guys in their tier, with the thinking that I can get a similar player later, if if I do in a vacuum prefer the player available now. Based on current ADP, I see that happening with a guy like Thielen for me, where I might pass on a guy I like such as Mike Evans, thinking I can get Thielen 2 rounds later.One thing that has helped me a lot in the last few seasons is I stopped reaching. I am far more independent and trusting of my tier rankings than say 5-6 years ago. I think in general, we overrate how good we are at identifying specific players. Even within Tiers I try to find similar players. Somebody reached for Swift? I’m on board with CEH with less competition. Terry McLaurin and Michael Thomas off the board at the turn? I still believe in Cee Dee Lamb and Keenan Allen. “Next 3” TEs (Andrews, Hock & Pitts) are gone. I don’t think it’s a ginormous drop to Goedert or Fant.
Although I do find value in projections, I am not married to a ranking list. That’s why I have Tier lists. I don’t want to put myself on tilt just because I missed that one guy I needed. I can’t even count how many times I left a draft pissed bc I missed players W and X, had to “settle” on Y and Z - and actually ended up better for it at year end.
Range of outcomes will serve you better than binary thinking.
Here’s a good question for discussion:hmm a lot of you seem bogged down by the definition of reach here.
What I think of as a reach is when you will take a player a round or more before their ADP because you want to ensure that you get that player.
One of those players for me this year is Travis Etienne.
Its a good question and not easy to answer. Every draft is different. Scoring system and projections could have me wanting certain players more in some leagues than others, then you have to read the room too, if you know the competition well enough to do so.Here’s a good question for discussion:
You’re drafting on the ends. You know the guy you want is not gonna be there in 21-23 picks, or you strongly suspect they won’t. Who is worth taking two rounds early? Why?
Off the top, I don't know what his ADP is or what you expect from him, but THIS ARTICLE discusses some potential usage for him this year. Unfortunately, they don't give a total projection and what they list is a bit piecemeal. More than 115 carries. 4 TD receptions. 4th most receiving yards on the time (compared to D'Andre Swift with 367 receiving yards in Detroit).hmm a lot of you seem bogged down by the definition of reach here.
What I think of as a reach is when you will take a player a round or more before their ADP because you want to ensure that you get that player.
One of those players for me this year is Travis Etienne.
The ADP that I looked at has ETN going at pick 56 ymmv.Off the top, I don't know what his ADP is or what you expect from him, but THIS ARTICLE discusses some potential usage for him this year. Unfortunately, they don't give a total projection and what they list is a bit piecemeal. More than 115 carries. 4 TD receptions. 4th most receiving yards on the time (compared to D'Andre Swift with 367 receiving yards in Detroit).
I looked at MFL's ADP report for PPR leagues. Etienne is listed at RB14 / 30th overall. All I can say is good luck if you want to reach a round early for him. Personally, I don't think he will hit RB14 to begin with, as Robinson seems likely to remain the primary running RB. Robinson, BTW, has an ADP of RB42 / 163rd overall. I would have a lot more interest in him at that price than Etienne at his. But we all like particular players more than others.
I’m not bogged down by it - I get it. But if my rankings are good & I understand every player’s ADP (of the players I want) I shouldn’t have to reach.hmm a lot of you seem bogged down by the definition of reach here.
What I think of as a reach is when you will take a player a round or more before their ADP because you want to ensure that you get that player.
One of those players for me this year is Travis Etienne.
A lot of that depends on 1. your team needs at the time, and 2. how the draft has unfolded to that point.Here’s a good question for discussion:
You’re drafting on the ends. You know the guy you want is not gonna be there in 21-23 picks, or you strongly suspect they won’t. Who is worth taking two rounds early? Why?
Based on Meyer saying they want more explosiveness at the position and drafting Etienne in Round 1?as Robinson seems likely to remain the primary running RB. Robinson,
Thanks.But that’s my preference. I won’t tell you how to draft.
Now we’re talking runs, and I've been in that position more times than I like to admit.Here is a typical draft day scenario. The top 6-7 tight ends are gone. Or let’s say enough for a 4 point passing TD league, 9 QBs gone and it’s 20 pics till it comes back to you. Do you reach for a QB so you don’t have to stream? And same question with the tight ends.
I find it super easy to stream quarterbacks in a one QB league. Our guys typically roster 18 to 20 QBs, 12 teams. Every year - every. single. year. - quarterbacks emerge. These days I find it tough to stream tight ends and you’re almost always bottom three.
you lost that badge, pal!Thanks.
I guess taking the guy above price could be considered a rookie move and thats my excuse.
Completely agree, and I think it goes without saying context always matters. Let the draft come to you.A lot of that depends on 1. your team needs at the time, and 2. how the draft has unfolded to that point.
In that context, almost any player I want at a position I perceive has a greater drop-off from one tier to the next is worth picking there.
I just don’t really see that as a reach though unless the player’s ADP indicates that they should make it back to me anyway.
I could see doing that if a run at a certain position happened - for example, 5 straight WRs right before your pick in the 5th after I went RB-TE-QB-RB. Maybe I grab the next 2 WR in my rankings because they’re the last of a tier regardless of their ADP.
It’s pretty situationally dependent. I try not to reach much as a general practice. I’d rather let the value come to me.
The article I linked (from a site that covers the Jags) painted a picture where Robinson would be the primary runner and Etienne would be a mismatch receiving option. They estimated Etienne would get 6 or so carries a game. That aligns with other reports that he’s been practicing as a WR and lining up all over the place.Based on Meyer saying they want more explosiveness at the position and drafting Etienne in Round 1?
I agree the definition of the word is a little different for everybody.....if you are in the middle of the draft slots....and you take a guy because you don't think he will make it back to you, that is not really a "reach" cause you are basically saying he is going to go around where you think anyway (the next few picks)....so it's not really reaching...hmm a lot of you seem bogged down by the definition of reach here.
What I think of as a reach is when you will take a player a round or more before their ADP because you want to ensure that you get that player.
One of those players for me this year is Travis Etienne.
If you don't overpay for one of the top-5 TEs, you're basically in the same boat as the other 7 teams in your league. All of you are streaming and hoping to have the right guy in your lineup the week he scores a TD.Here is a typical draft day scenario. The top 6-7 tight ends are gone. Or let’s say enough for a 4 point passing TD league, 9 QBs gone and it’s 20 pics till it comes back to you. Do you reach for a QB so you don’t have to stream? And same question with the tight ends.
I find it super easy to stream quarterbacks in a one QB league. Our guys typically roster 18 to 20 QBs, 12 teams. Every year - every. single. year. - quarterbacks emerge. These days I find it tough to stream tight ends and you’re almost always bottom three.
How many times have we heard about a RB lining up at WR during the offseason, and how many times was that the reality in season?Anarchy99 said:The article I linked (from a site that covers the Jags) painted a picture where Robinson would be the primary runner and Etienne would be a mismatch receiving option. They estimated Etienne would get 6 or so carries a game. That aligns with other reports that he’s been practicing as a WR and lining up all over the place.
I haven’t really looked into it, but I am not sure I personally would go chasing a rookie RB that at first glance looks like a 100 carry, 50 reception back with an ADP of RB14.
A lot of these types of threads have good intentions, but there are so many variables to individual leagues that makes it hard to compare players and strategies (scoring system, league size, starting roster requirements, number of reserves, guppies or sharks, geography of the league, etc.).
The comparisons that at have seen was more of a Reggie Bush role when he was in NO than a CMC role. So 8-10 carries a game and probably 4-5 receptions. I haven’t really looked around a ton, but I don’t believe I have seen him projected to have more carries than Robinson this year.How many times have we heard about a RB lining up at WR during the offseason, and how many times was that the reality in season?
RB14 seems high to me also - I do see Robinson as a potential detriment to Etienne's ceiling but calling Robinson the main RB doesn't seem realistic.
ETA: I just checked my ppr projections and ETN ends up as RB17, so maybe 14 isn't all that high. In non-ppr, he would drop considerably for me.
I know things change from season to season but I had him last year and he left me....meh. Like washing your hands with rubber kitchen gloves on. You know they are in the water but they are not getting wet.Brandin Cooks is on pretty much everyone of my best ball rosters.
Houston will be a dumpster fire but Cooks has a proven track record and there is basically zero competition for targets there. Tyrod can be serviceable. I usually pass over 9-10 guys on the next up list by ADP to grab Cooks.
The guy has ranked in the Top 16 wide receivers 5 times in 6 years on 4 different teams . . . yet gets very little respect in the fantasy community.I know things change from season to season but I had him last year and he left me....meh. Like washing your hands with rubber kitchen gloves on. You know they are in the water but they are not getting wet.
2020.. 81 for 1,150 and 6 for a WR17 finish. Sign me up in the 8th round all day.The guy has ranked in the Top 16 wide receivers 5 times in 6 years on 4 different teams . . . yet gets very little respect in the fantasy community.
I know I was trying to get some use out of that even though it expired.you lost that badge, pal!
no. The framing of this isn’t accurate. We both agree that ADP can be wrong.We went down this road before and we do not see eye to eye on this. You seem to think ADP is the law while I think ADP is wrong.
I wasn’t wrong. I never said Cook couldn’t be a top 5 player. I said that didn’t justify reaching for him by a full round.Last time we went down this road it was because a guy was talking about taking Dalvin Cook in the 1st round and you said it was wrong to do that but Cook ended up being the 2nd best RB that year and you were wrong.
I don’t recall calling you myopic - apologies if I offended.I was offended that you called my perspective on anything myopic. I am always trying to look at things from as many possible angles as I can.
I’m not sure why you’re addressing this to me. I haven’t really opined abut ETN other than saying I’m likely to avoid Jags. I agree he’s a talented back & the Jags use him as the Saints used Kamara, he could be a great value. This comment may be misdirected at me though.My valuation of ETN is based on my belief in his talent and when he catches 70+ this season you will all be signing a different tune about him going into 2022.
I generally see that as a good thing when it comes to exploiting the rankings or exploiting ADP.That said, I find my ranks & my Tiers are always a little out of sync with consensus.
The thing is general ADP is semi-meaningless in an individual league. I wouldn’t advocate that you should be taking your late round flyers in early rounds - but if some website tells me Joe Mixon is going in Round 3, that doesn’t mean he isn’t going early Round 2 in my league.draft the guy you want before he's gone. i pull muscles w how much I reach and Im always competitive. always.
In Dynasty the concept of reach is definitely different than redraft.In Dyno I’d be reaching for javonte and sermon in every draft. I’d also have lots of rookie and second year wrs by the end of the draft.
completely agree.The thing is general ADP is semi-meaningless in an individual league. I wouldn’t advocate that you should be taking your late round flyers in early rounds - but if some website tells me Joe Mixon is going in Round 3, that doesn’t mean he isn’t going early Round 2 in my league.
I keep an eye on it for my redraft because i know that at least 4 guys in my league rely on it heavily. If I’m somewhere between 4th & 8th position, I use it to try to figure who they will take, rather than who I should take.People get way too hung up on ADP. The only reason I’m even aware of the ADP on most players is from reading this forum.
My reply was based on dynasty startup drafts.Hot Sauce Guy said:In Dynasty the concept of reach is definitely different than redraft.
When you say you’d “reach” for Sermon & Javonte, what does that really mean though?
in superflex, they’re going end of 1st/early 2nd.
In 1-QB leagues they’re late to end of 1st round picks.
are you saying you’d take them ahead of guys like Chase, Pitts & other consensus-ranked top 5-6 guys?
Just trying to understand how you’d define reaching for them.
I got that - what I’m wondering is who you’re saying you’d reach for those two players over. Sorry if that was unclear.My reply was based on dynasty startup drafts.