Playoff Contest is LIVE (1 Viewer)

[David Dodds]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/entry.php

Per our annual tradition, we are announcing this in the Shark Pool tonight.

Good luck everyone.

 

[Steeler]

I'm running the calcomatic for the playoff contest!  Donations for the "2nd season" would be greatly appreciated  

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

In.

 

[joey]

Any links to last year's finalists. I have no clue how to attack this contest and would love a cheat sheet  

 

[Deamon]

Any links to last year's finalists. I have no clue how to attack this contest and would love a cheat sheet  

haha was just going to ask for the same.  No clue what ballpark cutoff will be after week 1 and how many wildcard weekend players to pick.

 

[Insein]

First time playing it for me. Doing it totally blind which probably means I'm out after week 1. I played it to be banking on knowing who's going to win the first week and have enough of the bye players to survive the remaining weeks. Thought about grabbing some cheap kickers but the stipulation that you can only have 2 players from a team score hampers that. Probably the total wrong way to play but we'll see.

 

[BroadwayG]

Derrick Henry $11 26.10 6.40 0.00 0.00
Rishard Matthews $7 2.50 5.70 0.00 0.00


Mohamed Sanu $9 11.50 8.00 0.00 0.00
Matt Bryant $8 18.50 4.30 0.00 0.00

Malcolm Brown $2 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.00


Leonard Fournette $17 9.30 30.90 15.90 0.00
Keelan Cole $10 0.00 5.50 5.70 0.00

Brenton Bersin $3 4.70 0.00 0.00 0.00
Greg Olsen $7 28.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

Willie Snead $3 1.70 3.80 0.00 0.00

Stevan Ridley $2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Tom Brady $36 0.00 35.05 26.50 43.85
Dion Lewis $19 0.00 18.60 10.10 3.90
Rob Gronkowski $35 0.00 23.10 3.60 37.10
Stephen Gostkowski $16 0.00 5.00 6.10 10.50

Nick Foles $16 0.00 12.10 35.60 41.75
LeGarrette Blount $5 0.00 7.90 8.10 15.00
Corey Clement $4 0.00 6.10 3.30 18.80
Alshon Jeffery $12 0.00 10.10 25.50 16.30
Zach Ertz $16 0.00 7.70 21.30 23.20
Trey Burton $4 0.00 0.00 2.70 6.05
Jake Elliott $8 0.00 12.00 8.80 13.80




http://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2017/week-21.php

 

[Birdie048]

This should be interesting.....  almost like a blind date!!   I'm in! 

 

[BroadwayG]

Basic strategy hasn't changed over the years. The cut lines the first two weeks are the major obstacles.

 

[-OZ-]

Step 1 - guess who plays in the Super bowl

Step 2 - guess wc winners

Step 3 - figure out how much to spend on WC to barely survive

Step 4 - guess the right difference makers in the super bowl

Pretty easy, right?

 

[Dez]

I was looking back at last year's wild card round teams and at the top of the board are so many teams that really screw this contest up.

This is 1 example of many entries that were put in last year they had a monster WC week score but have 0 shot of actually winning the contest.  What this does is screws up the cutoff score for week 1.  I scrolled down to 1000th and beyond place in the WC round last year and still seeing teams that look similar to this.  So somehow you need to have enough pts to advance but not sure up all your money on these wasted players.  Makes this contest nearly impossible (though someone will have to win).

This entry is NOT still alive.

Marcus Mariota           $13     32.45  28.40   0.00   0.00 
Derrick Henry            $11     26.10   6.40   0.00   0.00 

Kareem Hunt              $21     12.20   0.00   0.00   0.00 
Tyreek Hill              $20     17.10   0.00   0.00   0.00 

Matt Ryan                $17     17.40  16.50   0.00   0.00 
Devonta Freeman          $12     13.40  11.80   0.00   0.00 
Matt Bryant               $8     18.50   4.30   0.00   0.00 

Cooper Kupp              $16     20.90   0.00   0.00   0.00 
Sam Ficken               $12      7.70   0.00   0.00   0.00 

Tyrod Taylor             $12      8.40   0.00   0.00   0.00 
Marcus Murphy             $3      0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00 
Steve Hauschka            $5      3.10   0.00   0.00   0.00 

Leonard Fournette        $17      9.30  30.90  15.90   0.00 
Jacksonville Jaguars     $16      6.00  12.00   5.00   0.00 

Cam Newton               $19     33.15   0.00   0.00   0.00 
Christian McCaffrey      $11     20.70   0.00   0.00   0.00 
Greg Olsen                $7     28.70   0.00   0.00   0.00 

Ted Ginn                 $16     21.50  16.30   0.00   0.00 
Wil Lutz                 $13      9.70   7.30   0.00   0.00 

 

[rzrback77]

First time playing it for me. Doing it totally blind which probably means I'm out after week 1. I played it to be banking on knowing who's going to win the first week and have enough of the bye players to survive the remaining weeks. Thought about grabbing some cheap kickers but the stipulation that you can only have 2 players from a team score hampers that. Probably the total wrong way to play but we'll see.

It is a really tough contest. You have to do all of the following:

• Correctly select the super bowl teams
  
• Load up your rosters with those super bowl teams
  
• Select enough bye week players to survive against many teams that select two players from several bye week teams
  
• Have all your bye week players win so they advance to the second round and beyond
  

 

[Zegras11]

Week 1 - I have 9 players
Week 2 - 7 for sure, up to 10.
SB - 11 if both make it.

 

[Dez]

Week 1 - I have 9 players
Week 2 - 7 for sure, up to 10.
SB - 11 if both make it.

You must be banking on 2 WC teams to make the SB.  That is the only comfortable way to play this game but if 1 of the bye week teams make it your done.  The toughest years are when both SB teams come from the 4 bye week teams like in Den/Car year the winner only had a total of 6 players in that game and won it.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Woooooooo

iteration 1 complete.

-QG

 

[Zegras11]

You must be banking on 2 WC teams to make the SB.  That is the only comfortable way to play this game but if 1 of the bye week teams make it your done.  The toughest years are when both SB teams come from the 4 bye week teams like in Den/Car year the winner only had a total of 6 players in that game and won it.

I am not. Just one.

 

[Dez]

I am not. Just one.

Then you only have 2 SB players from your bye team can't see you being able to win like that.

 

[Zegras11]

Then you only have 2 SB players from your bye team can't see you being able to win like that.

I have 3 high priced ones.   Broadway posted the winning entry from last year a few posts above.  They only had 4 NE players and Lewis only scored 3.9 in the SB.

 

[Interseptopus]

Week 1 - I have 9 players
Week 2 - 7 for sure, up to 10.
SB - 11 if both make it.

Week 1: 8

Week 2:  8 for sure, 16 max

SB: 8

I might adjust my SB team players

 

[Insein]

I'm going to redo my entry after reading the thread.

 

[matuski]

this is hard.

 

[matuski]

I have no more than 2 players from any team.  Not sure if this is smart (I'll have players in SB) or dumb (do I have enough to get through weeks 1/2).

 

[Insein]

I have no more than 2 players from any team.  Not sure if this is smart (I'll have players in SB) or dumb (do I have enough to get through weeks 1/2).

I'm finding it's not really possible to hedge this thing and win. You need to guess right on who's going to be in the super bowl and guess right on who's going to perform well in WC weekend. Then just hope they do enough to get you there in the semis and Championships.

 

[The Man With No Name]

It's tricky

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I chose players from the two teams I’m predicting in the SB and then 2 QBs from WC weekend. So I’ll have only 6 players until SB assuming I picked correctly. I don’t see any other way of doing it. Hedging won’t work so I feel like I need to be all in on SB teams and hope for the best!

 

[apalmer]

I have no more than 2 players from any team.  Not sure if this is smart (I'll have players in SB) or dumb (do I have enough to get through weeks 1/2).

Week 1 won't be a problem.  Week 2 depends on who you picked. But, best case scenario is you have 4 guys in the SB. I doubt that wins you anything.  There will be a lot of teams with your 4 and several others.

 

[matuski]

Week 1 won't be a problem.  Week 2 depends on who you picked. But, best case scenario is you have 4 guys in the SB. I doubt that wins you anything.  There will be a lot of teams with your 4 and several others.

Yep.. I have already figured out a very different strat is necessary.

 

[heckmanm]

I'm finding it's not really possible to hedge this thing and win. You need to guess right on who's going to be in the super bowl and guess right on who's going to perform well in WC weekend. Then just hope they do enough to get you there in the semis and Championships.

Yeah, that's been my downfall in the past. 

I was considering going "feast or famine" with just 2 teams (1 from WC weekend) and hope they both make the SB. But then I notice that I can only count 2 scores from each team in the first 2 weeks, and that would only give me 2 players counting the first weekend, and only 4 the next.

This is hard

 

[heckmanm]

Week 1: 14 players across 5 teams, so 10 scores will count

Week 2: 16 players across 4 teams, so 8 scores will count

Week 3: 12 players, all counting.

The week 2-3 numbers assume my SB matchup is right; if not, then I'm boned anyway.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Week 1: 14 players across 5 teams, so 10 scores will count

Week 2: 16 players across 4 teams, so 8 scores will count

Week 3: 12 players, all counting.

The week 2-3 numbers assume my SB matchup is right; if not, then I'm boned anyway.

with 4 teams playing in week 3...

-QG

 

[heckmanm]

with 4 teams playing in week 3...

-QG

 did I not say this was hard? I was apparently thinking of my FF league with 3 weeks of playoffs

 

[heckmanm]

Let's try again

• Week 1: 14 players across 5 teams, so 10 scores will count
  
• Week 2: 16 players across 4 teams, so 8 scores will count
  
• Week 3: potential 16 players across 4 teams, 8 counting.
  
• SB: 12 players, all count
  

Max potential will require a WC team making the SB, as well as a 4/5 seed making the finals in each conference.

 

[JoeSteeler]

It's tricky

to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time

I was right there with you, brother! 

 

[Dez]

I have no more than 2 players from any team.  Not sure if this is smart (I'll have players in SB) or dumb (do I have enough to get through weeks 1/2).

You have zero chance to win with this lineup but you might make it to the SB.  So if your goal is to just get there and have no chance to win then stay put but if you actually want to try and win this thing you can't go with this.  I outlined how bad a strategy and how 1000+ teams used it last year none winning anything.

 

[-OZ-]

Is it possible to win if you only get one super bowl team right? 

I assume it is if there's a blowout. But otherwise?

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Is it possible to win if you only get one super bowl team right? 

I assume it is if there's a blowout. But otherwise?

I would say no unless it's a blowout.  The only thing that matters if you get that far is how many points you score in the SB, so there will definitely be entries that pick both right.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

contest sucks and rules all at the same time

 

[QuizGuy66]

Is it possible to win if you only get one super bowl team right? 

I assume it is if there's a blowout. But otherwise?

Least I can recall being on the Super Bowl loser is 2.  Very difficult.

-QG

 

[JoeSteeler]

wow this is hard

 

[Elevencents]

Oof

 

[Birdie048]

I chose players from the two teams I’m predicting in the SB and then 2 QBs from WC weekend. So I’ll have only 6 players until SB assuming I picked correctly. I don’t see any other way of doing it. Hedging won’t work so I feel like I need to be all in on SB teams and hope for the best!

This was my line of thinking ......  The 2 extra QB's are only to get you past WC weekend and Conference games....but then write them off for players who were on bye..... 

But my struggle is how do you pick between the QB vs those Defenses!!  Chi, Hou & Balt could dismantle a QB....

 

[texasheat]

It's maddening how tough this is. 

 

[Rubi]

someanabotch

this is forgging hard

 

[Birdie048]

someanabotch

this is forgging hard

Tell me about it......  worked on it some this yesterday, again this AM.... left it... came back and still not happy with roster....

The "balance" and predictive nature of this contest is challenging!! 

 

[Gally]

I totally reconfigured my roster based on this thread.  Hope it works...hahaha

The one thing that I didn't realize actually has value is grabbing the really low dollar guys on the teams I think are going to the Super Bowl over getting one or two higher priced guys that are better only to diversify.  That diversification will never get to you the end.  

 

[jdoggydogg]

I love this contest despite having no clue how to win. Good advice in this thread, but I seem impervious to it. 

 

[Insein]

Meh my head hurts. Picked 14 total players. Not going to worry about it anymore.

 

[joey]

I love this contest despite having no clue how to win. Good advice in this thread, but I seem impervious to it. 

agreed. this honestly seems like a bit more of a dart throw than many "skill based" contests. I feel like it really is simply a crap shoot with the amount of money and restrictions in place on scoring. But, heck, I'm game for buying a lottery ticket.

 

[jdoggydogg]

agreed. this honestly seems like a bit more of a dart throw than many "skill based" contests. I feel like it really is simply a crap shoot with the amount of money and restrictions in place on scoring. But, heck, I'm game for buying a lottery ticket.

Certainly there's luck. But as is the case with FalnDuel and Draftkings, I bet the guys that usually win spend a lot of time with their analysis.