Podunker's early RB rankings, tiering, with draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[podunker]

Early rankings, tiering, and draft strategy comments. These are for 2009 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings based on 12 team leagues with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go down the list, and also give some opinions. I would love to hear others opinions and constructive criticism.

Tier 1

LT

Peterson

MJD

I love LT this year. Everyone is writing him off, but he will be finally healthy. Healthy with a chip on his shoulder. I like that combo. Rarely is he taken in the first three picks, he is a steal after that. I see MJD increasing his role, but Jacksonville likes to use two backs. So don’t go overboard expecting too much. Peterson is Peterson, but could be more dangerous with Favre. At least defenses will have to play against the pass a little.

Tier 2

S Jackson

Turner

D Williams

Forte

C Johnson

Westy

Turner, D Will, and Forte all produced last year, so they are ranked accordingly. The downside to them is that they don’t catch many passes. S Jackson is a hunch on my part. I think they will utilize him a lot both rushing and catching the ball with the new Coach. Nobody will be pushing him for carries like Norwood, and Stewart. CJ and Westy are in flux to me right now. Westy is a beast in PPR, but his injury has me worried. CJ is very interesting. I think teams are going to load up even more this year on the run with him, plus I think Tenn. will be playing from behind a little more. But that could help his pass catch totals.The above guys should be the first nine players taken. After them, I would consider Moss or Fitz.

Tier 3

Reggie

Portis

Gore

Reggie is still great in PPR leagues, and he is finally becoming a value in the third round. If he is there in the late third early 4th, he is a steal. Portis and Gore will make nice RB1’s for your team, but I will probably be taking my WR1 in round two when Portis is being taken. Gore is being taken in the first round by lots of owners, which helps push other players down.

Tier 4

Slaton

McFadden

LJ

Barber

There is some real value in the this group, with LJ being the king of value right now. He can be had as late as the 5th right now. I think McFadden breaks out this year, if a breakout is possible for Oakland. Slaton is going way too high for my taste, he is going in the first round in a lot of drafts. Barber is going in the second, but I will be taking WR in the second round. I hope to get one of the top nine picks this year and go WR/WR in the 2nd and 3rd round. If I get stuck at the turn, I like WR/WR also and hope for Reggie/Mcfadden and LJ/Moreno/T. Jones later.

Tier 5

K. Smith

Jacobs

T. Jones

Moreno

Similar to the above group, I think K. Smith and Jacobs are going in the rounds I’ll be taking WR, but Moreno and Jones are in my wheelhouse. T. Jones is getting written off way too soon also. Moreno will be a lot like Forte last year. Both can be had in the fourth round. Which is why I go WR in rounds two and three.

Tier 6

Lynch (3)

R. Brown (3)

Addai (5)

Parker (6)

(ADP) Lynch would be much higher if he wasn’t suspended. I think Brown is being taken too high. He had one explosive week when they broke out the wildcat offense, if you take that away, he wouldn’t be top 20. I also think Addai is great value. He was a top 5 pick last year for Pete’s sake. I think Brown is a fine rookie back, but I can see him going through what D Williams went through when he came in the league. They will take their time with him. But you can handcuff him a few rounds later. Parker demise is greatly predicted, but he is a good pick in the 6th round. Mendenhall has done nothing to make me think he will be the man. Even so, he would be a cheap handcuff also.

Tier 7

Grant (6)

P Thomas (4)

Benson (7)

Ward (4)

I’m not sold on P. Thomas as a RB2. He is just too inconsistent for me. I still think Bush the RB to have on this team. If they get better on defense and can get ahead in games and use the running game to grind the clock out, I like him much better. But that is not the case with the Saints. I like too many other guys in the fourth to pick Ward or Thomas. Grant is another guy I am skeptical of as a RB2. Although the sixth round is about right for him. Benson is the guy I really like as a RB3. I know he plays a tough run defense schedule, but he has nobody pushing him for carries and will have a better passing attack to go with him this year. Never thought I would say I liked Benson!

Tier 8

Stewart (4)

J. Jones (9)

Lewis (7)

L. White (6)

R. Rice (9)

Bradshaw (9)

D. Brown (7)

Felix Jones (7)

I’m not going to talk about all of them, just a few things. Don’t write off L. White too fast, he will get a bunch of carries, just like last year. Getting a starting RB in the 9th like JJ is nice value. I’m in the Rice camp to be the man in Baltimore, maybe just not totally this year. Bradshaw is a better runner than Ward was, and will be a factor for the Giants.

Tier 9

Fred Taylor (11)

C. Taylor (10)

Norwood (10)

Sproles (8)

Hightower (9)

Ricky Williams (12)

Graham (9)

McCoy (11)

I think Sproles gets relegated back to his special teams role and a few carries a game, just like Turner did when he was LT’s backup. Hightower is still the starter in Arizona, don’t let the Wells signing fool you. It will take some time before Wells is ready. Freddie is too talented not to get the bulk of the carries in New England, can you say Cory Dillon part Duex. Ricky is awfully talented to be lasting until the 12th. He can produce just as well as Brown if Brown gets hurt.

Tier 10

Washington

Wells

F. Jackson

Maroney

M. Bush

McClain

Mendenhall

K Jones

Betts

B. Jackson

Bernard Scott

Late round fodder, but one of them could rise up in the right situation.

Anyway, my strategy with the RB’s this year is to get one of the top 9 guys and then grab as many of the top 12 WR’s I can in the next two or three rounds. Marshall fell to me in the 4th already, as my WR3 behind Smith and TO. Hope the bad news keeps coming out on him. At least take two WR studs in rounds 2 and 3. Then look for Reggie/Moreno/T. Jones in the fourth. McNabby in the fifth or best player available if you don’t want him. If you have the stones and draft late in round one, pick three of the top 12 WR’s with your first three picks and look for the RB bargains with the next four picks in rounds 4-7. I would love a team of Fitz/Moss/Boldin followed up with Bush/LJ/Parker/Benson and then pickup Hass and Garrard in the 9th and 10th. The bottom line is there is lots of RB depth and value to be had this year so don’t just focus on them early!

 

[AllVolUT]

Anyway, my strategy with the RB’s this year is to get one of the top 9 guys and then grab as many of the top 12 WR’s I can in the next two or three rounds. Marshall fell to me in the 4th already, as my WR3 behind Smith and TO. Hope the bad news keeps coming out on him. At least take two WR studs in rounds 2 and 3. Then look for Reggie/Moreno/T. Jones in the fourth. McNabby in the fifth or best player available if you don’t want him. If you have the stones and draft late in round one, pick three of the top 12 WR’s with your first three picks and look for the RB bargains with the next four picks in rounds 4-7. I would love a team of Fitz/Moss/Boldin followed up with Bush/LJ/Parker/Benson and then pickup Hass and Garrard in the 9th and 10th. The bottom line is there is lots of RB depth and value to be had this year so don’t just focus on them early!

Waldman has been hitting upon this strategy as of late. Not sure I agree with your tiers, but I definitely agree with the underlying plan.

 

[MAC_32]

Anyway, my strategy with the RB’s this year is to get one of the top 9 guys and then grab as many of the top 12 WR’s I can in the next two or three rounds. Marshall fell to me in the 4th already, as my WR3 behind Smith and TO. Hope the bad news keeps coming out on him. At least take two WR studs in rounds 2 and 3. Then look for Reggie/Moreno/T. Jones in the fourth. McNabby in the fifth or best player available if you don’t want him. If you have the stones and draft late in round one, pick three of the top 12 WR’s with your first three picks and look for the RB bargains with the next four picks in rounds 4-7. I would love a team of Fitz/Moss/Boldin followed up with Bush/LJ/Parker/Benson and then pickup Hass and Garrard in the 9th and 10th. The bottom line is there is lots of RB depth and value to be had this year so don’t just focus on them early!

Waldman has been hitting upon this strategy as of late. Not sure I agree with your tiers, but I definitely agree with the underlying plan.

Yep, what exactly I do for a draft depends where I'm drafting and who I'm drafting against but like last year I'll be hoarding WR's early. The talent level takes a significant dive around WR12 and then another big drop around 20. RB is deep and QB/TE are even deeper.

 

[PranksterJD]

Nice list.

Might want to recheck Forte not catching passes though.

 

[Coboney]

Interesting stuff for discussion - not a huge LJ fan this year myself though...

On Ronnie Brown a lot of his ADP and predictions are based on the fact that this is his second year back from ACL after a great first half in 2007 on the Miami Dolphins.

Also think your a little low on Frank Gore especially in PPR as he is one of the backs that can pick up a lot of catches.

 

[Jack Burton]

I cant see LT as a top tier RB anymore despite his HOF credentials. The guy turns thirty tomorrow, he has almost 2700 carries for his career and he has played eight seasons which is twice the average of a typical NFL RB. I hate to say it but he is tier two or three at this stage of his career.

 

[Tanner9919]

nice list.

too high on LT, Westy, SJax, McFadden, Reggie Bush...

too low on LJ, Portis, Felix, Parker, Benson, Thomas

what if's:

D. Brown, J Jones ( Mora has a knack for creating productive running games), Ward, Fred Taylor, Michael Bush ( once McFadden gets hurt, again)

 

[podunker]

Nice list. Might want to recheck Forte not catching passes though.

Well played.......I didn't realize how much he did catch the ball. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. That will move him up slightly, but not up to tier 1. He is a top guy for sure.

I cant see LT as a top tier RB anymore despite his HOF credentials. The guy turns thirty tomorrow, he has almost 2700 carries for his career and he has played eight seasons which is twice the average of a typical NFL RB. I hate to say it but he is tier two or three at this stage of his career.

I hope owners keep thinking that way, just pushes him further down the board...............

 

[shader]

Putting LT in the top three is really just a legacy vote for the guy. Running backs at his age rarely start breaking down, then suddenly get healthy and become great again. I just don't see it. I wouldn't touch him in the top ten.

And I think Gore and Ronnie Brown are way too low on your list.

 

[=Smackdown=]

And I think Gore and Ronnie Brown are way too low on your list.

:( Come draft day I hope all my league mates have R Brown ranked as the #22 overall RB. He's going to make the perfect RB2 this year - a year removed from surgery, a rebuilt Oline that will run often and he's in his contract year.

 

[Ray_T]

your list isnt bad.

but I'd drop Westy into Tier 3 as it looks like his injury (and recovery) are not going as well as planned.

 

[kevthegrad]

Great list and lots of thought put into it.

I'm amazed at your ranking of Chris Wells. I think you have him FAR FAR FAR too low. WAY too low.

 

[podunker]

I'm amazed at your ranking of Chris Wells. I think you have him FAR FAR FAR too low. WAY too low.

I just think it's Hightowers job right now. He did a pretty good job his first year and actually replaced Edge most the time. Is Wells that much better than Hightower? He'll have to prove it first..........and I don't think he gets the nod over Hightower.

 

[AllVolUT]

I'm amazed at your ranking of Chris Wells. I think you have him FAR FAR FAR too low. WAY too low.

I just think it's Hightowers job right now. He did a pretty good job his first year and actually replaced Edge most the time. Is Wells that much better than Hightower? He'll have to prove it first..........and I don't think he gets the nod over Hightower.

I remember reading that Wells has been reluctant to block in the past. You can be sure that Whisenhunt won't risk injury to his 38 y/o QB. It seems in order for Wells to justify big numbers that some are projecting, he will definitely have to improve in this area.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Jacobs in "tier 5" probably the worst mistake here. There are definitely not 16 RBs I would draft before him.

 

[Gopher State]

I think Portis is to low. I can see CP outperforming CJ, DWill, and LT.

On LT, I think the best days are behind him, anyone drafting him in the first round could be in for a big disappointment.

On the WR issue, I seeing Fritz, and or AJ/Moss going in first rounds of more and more drafts/mock drafts, I don't think your going to be able to get as many stud WR's in rounds two and three as one thinks.

Nice list, I really enjoy these type of posts. Keep it coming.

 

[Day Drinker]

I'm amazed at your ranking of Chris Wells. I think you have him FAR FAR FAR too low. WAY too low.

I just think it's Hightowers job right now. He did a pretty good job his first year and actually replaced Edge most the time. Is Wells that much better than Hightower? He'll have to prove it first..........and I don't think he gets the nod over Hightower.

I think Beanie is a LOT better than Hightower. Obviously he will have to learn the offense, but if he picks it up quickly, I think he will be the starter on opening day. It will be interesting to see this battle play out in camp, but Beanie was a 1st rounder for a reason, and Hightower was a 5th rounder for a reason. 6'1" 235 lbs RB with 4.4 speed are not easy to come by, so I think Beanie will surprise many this year in the Cards high powered offense.

 

[podunker]

Jacobs in "tier 5" probably the worst mistake here. There are definitely not 16 RBs I would draft before him.

Jacobs finished in the 18th spot last year in most my leagues, and his average points were around 15, right in the same area I have him. I agree that there might not be 16 RB's better than him, but NY has showed that they are going to use more than one back a lot. Many times Jacobs starts and plays most the the first half into the third quarter, with Ward coming in on passing downs etc. Bradshaw then came in in the third and would finish some games off. I can see this happening a lot again this year, only with Bradshaw getting more time.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm amazed at your ranking of Chris Wells. I think you have him FAR FAR FAR too low. WAY too low.

I just think it's Hightowers job right now. He did a pretty good job his first year and actually replaced Edge most the time. Is Wells that much better than Hightower? He'll have to prove it first..........and I don't think he gets the nod over Hightower.

So what exactly about Hightower's 2.8ypc and re-benching was it that impressed you so much? Hightower was handed the starting job at midseason and couldn't hold it but for a couple weeks.I believe it was Yudkin who ran the numbers and determined that among backs with 100+ carries Hightower's 2008 season ranks among some of the all-time worst.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm amazed at your ranking of Chris Wells. I think you have him FAR FAR FAR too low. WAY too low.

I just think it's Hightowers job right now. He did a pretty good job his first year and actually replaced Edge most the time. Is Wells that much better than Hightower? He'll have to prove it first..........and I don't think he gets the nod over Hightower.

So what exactly about Hightower's 2.8ypc and re-benching was it that impressed you so much? Hightower was handed the starting job at midseason and couldn't hold it but for a couple weeks.I believe it was Yudkin who ran the numbers and determined that among backs with 100+ carries Hightower's 2008 season ranks among some of the all-time worst.

Bottom 10 in ypc out of almost 1500 RB seasons for backs with at least 140 carries in a season.If you add in his post-season numbers, he's still Bottom 10 out of roughly 1000 RB seasons with 175 carries. Of note is that Marshall Faulk had a season ranked worse than Hightower's (1996).

 

[kevthegrad]

I'm amazed at your ranking of Chris Wells. I think you have him FAR FAR FAR too low. WAY too low.

I just think it's Hightowers job right now. He did a pretty good job his first year and actually replaced Edge most the time. Is Wells that much better than Hightower? He'll have to prove it first..........and I don't think he gets the nod over Hightower.

So what exactly about Hightower's 2.8ypc and re-benching was it that impressed you so much? Hightower was handed the starting job at midseason and couldn't hold it but for a couple weeks.I believe it was Yudkin who ran the numbers and determined that among backs with 100+ carries Hightower's 2008 season ranks among some of the all-time worst.

I was scrambling to read the rest of the replies to see if anybody else pounced on this. The truth is that Hightower was totally underwhelming other than at the goal line and his yards per carry and lack of consistency actually got Edge the job back by the time the playoffs came along. So I don't want to hear anything about it being Hightower's job for now. Hightower may take the 1st snap week 1 but Wells will be the guy here, in no time flat.

 

[bcr8f]

Grant is the man in GB, was hurt last year and now has a bulldozer blocking fullback.

Too low.

 

[abe froman]

I'm amazed at your ranking of Chris Wells. I think you have him FAR FAR FAR too low. WAY too low.

I just think it's Hightowers job right now. He did a pretty good job his first year and actually replaced Edge most the time. Is Wells that much better than Hightower? He'll have to prove it first..........and I don't think he gets the nod over Hightower.

It was Beanie's job the day he put the AZ hat on.. I think now that he has made it to the professional level theres no worry of an injury from an attempted block knocking him down draft boards and taking money away. Just saying that he knew what his bread and butter was and may have avoided extra risks at OSU. Hard to imagine that a guy that has one of the best stiff arms Ive ever seen, would have a problem being AT LEAST an average blocker..

 

[podunker]

I can't argue with Hightower's stats from last year. It comes down to this for me. Arizona was the worse rushing team in the league last year, and a great pass offense. I don't think that changes much. Wells is being taken in the 6th as around the 30th RB taken, and Hightower in the 9th. So it appears some owners think Wells is going to put up RB3 numbers this year, with some owners thinking he has RB2 upside. I think those owners are going to be disappointed when it is all said and done. Especially if Hightower continues to get the goalline work. I would rather take my chances with a 9th round pick than a 6th round pick. I will take my chances wtih someone else in the 6th.

 

[David Yudkin]

I can't argue with Hightower's stats from last year. It comes down to this for me. Arizona was the worse rushing team in the league last year, and a great pass offense. I don't think that changes much. Wells is being taken in the 6th as around the 30th RB taken, and Hightower in the 9th. So it appears some owners think Wells is going to put up RB3 numbers this year, with some owners thinking he has RB2 upside. I think those owners are going to be disappointed when it is all said and done. Especially if Hightower continues to get the goalline work. I would rather take my chances with a 9th round pick than a 6th round pick. I will take my chances wtih someone else in the 6th.

And the news out there still has Hightower likely starting the season as the starter. I don't take that as a ringing endorsement for Wells making noise early in the season. I suspect he will see more work as the season progresses, but I still don't see him being a difference maker fantasy wise this year.All teams want to run thge ball, but not all of them can do it. I'm guessing the Cardinals do have more rushing attempts this year, but their bread and butter is still passing.As I mentioned in other threads, the Cardinals defense will have a profound impact on what the offense will be doing this year. If they give up 30, 40, 50 points some weeks like last year, then they won't be running much.

 

[saintfool]

I’m not sold on P. Thomas as a RB2. He is just too inconsistent for me. I still think Bush the RB to have on this team. If they get better on defense and can get ahead in games and use the running game to grind the clock out, I like him much better. But that is not the case with the Saints.

Have you looked weeks 11-16 last year? You know, the weeks where he actually got a starter's workload? Very productive.He's going to get the lion's share of carries. Payton has said he'll aim for a little more balance in the playcalling. The defense should improve with an experienced NFL DC at the helm. There have been additions to the defensive side. As long as Brees is healthy then the Saints offense will be a beast. Putting Thomas in Tier 7 is pretty silly, I think.

 

[bcr8f]

I’m not sold on P. Thomas as a RB2. He is just too inconsistent for me. I still think Bush the RB to have on this team. If they get better on defense and can get ahead in games and use the running game to grind the clock out, I like him much better. But that is not the case with the Saints.

Have you looked weeks 11-16 last year? You know, the weeks where he actually got a starter's workload? Very productive.He's going to get the lion's share of carries. Payton has said he'll aim for a little more balance in the playcalling. The defense should improve with an experienced NFL DC at the helm. There have been additions to the defensive side. As long as Brees is healthy then the Saints offense will be a beast. Putting Thomas in Tier 7 is pretty silly, I think.

When given the job he really ran with it. When someone shows what he did when called they really move up for me. He showed he could be relied on in those final games. He took over the Chicago game.

 

[millertyme1]

I see Hightower/Wells a la Chester/Peterson this year. Wells isn't as talented as Peterson, but I don't think he's that far off. I don't think Hightower is anywhere as good as Taylor was/is. I expect Hightower to have more carries than Wells through 5-6 games, but I expect Beanie to make him an afterthought by the end of the year.

I don't think Hightower is long for an NFL active roster. They could probably upgrade from him off the street right now.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I’m not sold on P. Thomas as a RB2. He is just too inconsistent for me. I still think Bush the RB to have on this team. If they get better on defense and can get ahead in games and use the running game to grind the clock out, I like him much better. But that is not the case with the Saints.

Have you looked weeks 11-16 last year? You know, the weeks where he actually got a starter's workload? Very productive.He's going to get the lion's share of carries. Payton has said he'll aim for a little more balance in the playcalling. The defense should improve with an experienced NFL DC at the helm. There have been additions to the defensive side. As long as Brees is healthy then the Saints offense will be a beast. Putting Thomas in Tier 7 is pretty silly, I think.

When given the job he really ran with it. When someone shows what he did when called they really move up for me. He showed he could be relied on in those final games. He took over the Chicago game.

When Aaron Stecker was given the load for the last 3 games of 2007 he finished with games of:107 yards

141 yards, 2 TDs

84 yards, 2 TDs

Just sayin...

 

[saintfool]

When Aaron Stecker was given the load for the last 3 games of 2007 he finished with games of:107 yards141 yards, 2 TDs84 yards, 2 TDsJust sayin...

all this proves is that anyone in that offense can excel. Thomas will get the lion's share of touches. reggie is expected to return to his utility role. thomas has shown he can be very effective in the offense. taking all of these factors into consideration, relegating thomas to bottom half of any list is pretty silly.

 

[podunker]

Have you looked weeks 11-16 last year? You know, the weeks where he actually got a starter's workload? Very productive.He's going to get the lion's share of carries. Payton has said he'll aim for a little more balance in the playcalling. The defense should improve with an experienced NFL DC at the helm. There have been additions to the defensive side. As long as Brees is healthy then the Saints offense will be a beast. Putting Thomas in Tier 7 is pretty silly, I think.

He got a lot of those stats because Bush was not playing or hurt. Bush is still the man when he plays and is healthy. I just don't see enough balls to go around for Thomas to be that great.

 

[saintfool]

Have you looked weeks 11-16 last year? You know, the weeks where he actually got a starter's workload? Very productive.He's going to get the lion's share of carries. Payton has said he'll aim for a little more balance in the playcalling. The defense should improve with an experienced NFL DC at the helm. There have been additions to the defensive side. As long as Brees is healthy then the Saints offense will be a beast. Putting Thomas in Tier 7 is pretty silly, I think.

He got a lot of those stats because Bush was not playing or hurt. Bush is still the man when he plays and is healthy. I just don't see enough balls to go around for Thomas to be that great.

Reggie is not going to see 20+ carries for the Saints. He will see 20+ touches - some rushing attempts, other pasing and still more on special teams - but the bulk of the carries will be to Thomas. Thomas has prepared for it too by adding some bulk in the offseason.Listen, I'm not saying he's going to ADP or LT. That's not what the Saints are asking of their RBs. Instead, I'm saying he has proven to be very productive when playing on this Saints team. You should recognize the value in that and rank/project him accordingly.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Jacobs in "tier 5" probably the worst mistake here. There are definitely not 16 RBs I would draft before him.

Jacobs finished in the 18th spot last year in most my leagues, and his average points were around 15, right in the same area I have him. I agree that there might not be 16 RB's better than him, but NY has showed that they are going to use more than one back a lot. Many times Jacobs starts and plays most the the first half into the third quarter, with Ward coming in on passing downs etc. Bradshaw then came in in the third and would finish some games off. I can see this happening a lot again this year, only with Bradshaw getting more time.

Are you assuming that Jacobs will miss games this season? That's fair, but if he played 16 (instead of 13) last year he may have had another 45 FF points. Surely that's top 10 potential.Is he more likely to get there than the guys you grouped him with - I'd say yeah.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

When Aaron Stecker was given the load for the last 3 games of 2007 he finished with games of:107 yards141 yards, 2 TDs84 yards, 2 TDsJust sayin...

all this proves is that anyone in that offense can excel. Thomas will get the lion's share of touches.

This still doesn't explain why Thomas will get "the lion's share of the touches". Because he excelled in that offense last year? You just said anyone can do that, and Aaron Stecker did it when he stepped in at the end of 2007 and last I checked he didn't get the "lion's share of the touches" the next year.

Reggie is not going to see 20+ carries for the Saints. He will see 20+ touches

I don't think anyone is saying Reggie Bush is going to get 20+ carries per game, but neither is Thomas. No one is saying Bush is going to be a workhorse back, but he's going to get a lot of touches. A lot more than were getting stolen from Thomas when Thomas performed well last year. You just said that Bush will see 20+ touches, so how many touches are you predicting the Saints RBs to get in a game if you're saying that Thomas is going to be a workhorse back in the same game than another RB has 20+ touches. 50? That's 800 touches over the course of a season between two RBs.Thomas clearly isn't going to be forgotten like Stecker was, but to say he's going to be a workhorse back is crazy talk. A best case scenario for Thomas when Bush is healthy is that the touches will be divided basically in half.

 

[saintfool]

This still doesn't explain why Thomas will get "the lion's share of the touches". Because he excelled in that offense last year? You just said anyone can do that, and Aaron Stecker did it when he stepped in at the end of 2007 and last I checked he didn't get the "lion's share of the touches" the next year.

Seriously? They had Deuce, Reggie and Thomas all in the fold. Stecker's lengthy career was as a ST player. Stecker stepped up certainly but no one thought he should start ahead of any of them. Again, it points to the offense's unique ability to plug a RB in and produce.

I don't think anyone is saying Reggie Bush is going to get 20+ carries per game, but neither is Thomas. No one is saying Bush is going to be a workhorse back, but he's going to get a lot of touches. A lot more than were getting stolen from Thomas when Thomas performed well last year. You just said that Bush will see 20+ touches, so how many touches are you predicting the Saints RBs to get in a game if you're saying that Thomas is going to be a workhorse back in the same game than another RB has 20+ touches. 50? That's 800 touches over the course of a season between two RBs.

Let's clarify what a "touch" is, shall we? It's not exclusive to rushing attempts, which is why I go on to make that distinction. Reggie will get some rushing attempts but he'll get used as a receiver and special teams player. Payton wants his most dynamic player to get opportunities to maximize his talent. He has proven that he's not an every down back. Quite simply, he breaks down. Moving him around protects him as much as anything. So when I say Reggie will get 20+ touches a game, it can mean 5-7 attempts on the ground, another 5-7 receptions, and still more in ST duty. This was the formula used when Deuce and Reggie had their best season together. That season (2006), Reggie had barely 150 attempts. Deuce has 244 attempts.

Thomas clearly isn't going to be forgotten like Stecker was, but to say he's going to be a workhorse back is crazy talk. A best case scenario for Thomas when Bush is healthy is that the touches will be divided basically in half.

Thomas doesn't have to be a workhorse. He just needs to get about 20+ attempts a game, which he will get. He will lead the Saints in rushing attempts this year, barring injury.Payton has said he wants more balance in the offensive playcalling. This means his value should be higher than perhaps you and others are contemplating. He's certainly not going to be the 25th best RB in FF next year for most leagues formats.

 

[Sea Bass]

Ronnie Brown in tier 6 causes me to lose a little respect.

Otherwise, nice list.

 

[kevthegrad]

When Aaron Stecker was given the load for the last 3 games of 2007 he finished with games of:107 yards141 yards, 2 TDs84 yards, 2 TDsJust sayin...

all this proves is that anyone in that offense can excel. Thomas will get the lion's share of touches.

This still doesn't explain why Thomas will get "the lion's share of the touches". Because he excelled in that offense last year? You just said anyone can do that, and Aaron Stecker did it when he stepped in at the end of 2007 and last I checked he didn't get the "lion's share of the touches" the next year.

Reggie is not going to see 20+ carries for the Saints. He will see 20+ touches

I don't think anyone is saying Reggie Bush is going to get 20+ carries per game, but neither is Thomas. No one is saying Bush is going to be a workhorse back, but he's going to get a lot of touches. A lot more than were getting stolen from Thomas when Thomas performed well last year. You just said that Bush will see 20+ touches, so how many touches are you predicting the Saints RBs to get in a game if you're saying that Thomas is going to be a workhorse back in the same game than another RB has 20+ touches. 50? That's 800 touches over the course of a season between two RBs.Thomas clearly isn't going to be forgotten like Stecker was, but to say he's going to be a workhorse back is crazy talk. A best case scenario for Thomas when Bush is healthy is that the touches will be divided basically in half.

Totally disagree. The buzz....the comments from other players...everything points to Pierre Thomas getting the bulk of carries. 20 may be pushing it. But 15 - 20 for sure. He catches balls nicely too....I see this being a breakout year for Thomas. His nickname is "PT Cruiser". Not good. Other than that, love him.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Totally disagree. The buzz....the comments from other players...everything points to Pierre Thomas getting the bulk of carries.

If only I had a nickel for every time that coachspeak and "the buzz" resulted in the exact opposite of what was being said to us I'd, well I'd have more nickels than I would if I got one every time "the buzz" came true.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

I don't do ppr so admittedly i probably don't know how to make the proper adjustments but some things on that list befuddle me.

Seems like there's a lot more unpredictability in this years drafts than ever before. After AP I'm not sure anyone agrees on anything.