Posluszny or Laurinaitis? (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

Man, that's two hard LBer names to spell.

Who do you favor in a dynasty with typical LBer scoring?

With Poz (not trying to spell those names again), you get a guy that seems to have buzzard's luck with odd injuries, but I'm not sure I would call him injury prone just yet. But on the flip side, he actually averages FF points that are higher than some studs like Beason when he is playing.

With Laurinaitis, you get the young rookie tha tplayed really well last year and seems solid and durable but I wonder if he may suffer the fate of a guy like DeMeco Ryans (super production when he started and team was not very good but stats slowly slip as the talent around him improves).

Is this a "6 in one, half a dozen in the other" kind of decision or can anyone make a case for or agianst either for a team that is looking to add one of the two to their long term roster?

 

[Grimace59]

Poz is switching to a 3-4 next so that could really affect his value.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Poz is switching to a 3-4 next so that could really affect his value.

How do you think the 3-4 might hurt Posluszny?

 

[Grimace59]

I don't know but it would be a change, so it could hurt or help him. I wonder if anybody has any stats of other top 20 LBs that made changes between 3-4 and 4-3 defenses.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I don't know but it would be a change, so it could hurt or help him. I wonder if anybody has any stats of other top 20 LBs that made changes between 3-4 and 4-3 defenses.

Some players improve (Karlos Dansby), others struggle (Jonathan Vilma) and others stay about the same (David Harris). I think the important thing is not to presume a default that a 4-3 LB cannot be a productive 3-4 ILB or that all 3-4 ILBs are risks. Considering whether the player is a good fit for the role and what his tackle opportunity and how his surrounding cast may influence his upside are more important that whether the scheme is 3-4 or not. I don't think you're implying that, but the fear of the 3-4 remains a common misconception in IDP circles.In Posluszny's case, he would appear to be a little small on paper to handle a 3-4 ILB role, especially if the Bills' lean toward a more traditional 2-gap front. It's also questionable whether the Buffalo defensive line personnel can handle the switch and help keep blockers off Posluszny. The NT position in particular looks like it'll be undersized and may not be able to draw double teams consistently.However, the Bills are likely to provide plenty of tackle opportunity again. The competition for those tackles will again be average at best. Posluszny will be WILB, which will be more likely to be free to flow to the ball. It's probably risky to project Posluszny for 95-100 solos, but I think 87-92 is still well within reach. I'm not worried that we're about to see another case similar to Vilma (who had knee issues and no interest in playing the 3-4 and shedding blockers).Though I think they are very similar on paper, Laurinaitis will likely continue to have more opportunity for tackles and will again have a bottom five supporting cast competing for tackles. I think his immediate upside is better than Posluszny's -- at least a half tier -- though it won't be surprising if they trend back toward the same low LB1/high LB2 tier in the longer term.

 

[DesmondBishop]

Jene always has great insight and is so technically sound on how defenses and tackle opportunities effect the number, my way is more based on talent and I think talent wins out in the end. This year may be close but in the long run Poz is the much better overall LB and I think the numbers will end up that way.

 

[alg]

Based on his stats last year coming back from the arm injury, Poz is a high 1st tier LB. I think only one LB in a tackle heavy league averaged more points per game than he did.

A 3-4 is cause for concern, but if if you are comfortable with him not having a dropoff, then I would say POZ is being consistantly undervalued on Footballguys.

 

[Shutout]

Based on his stats last year coming back from the arm injury, Poz is a high 1st tier LB. I think only one LB in a tackle heavy league averaged more points per game than he did. A 3-4 is cause for concern, but if if you are comfortable with him not having a dropoff, then I would say POZ is being consistantly undervalued on Footballguys.

Thanks guys. Very good stuff. Much appreciated.

 

[golfguy]

Based on his stats last year coming back from the arm injury, Poz is a high 1st tier LB. I think only one LB in a tackle heavy league averaged more points per game than he did.A 3-4 is cause for concern, but if if you are comfortable with him not having a dropoff, then I would say POZ is being consistantly undervalued on Footballguys.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Based on his stats last year coming back from the arm injury, Poz is a high 1st tier LB. I think only one LB in a tackle heavy league averaged more points per game than he did. A 3-4 is cause for concern, but if if you are comfortable with him not having a dropoff, then I would say POZ is being consistantly undervalued on Footballguys.

Anthony has him 8th and I have him 10th in the current dynasty rankings (mine are from late February but I don't think the top two tiers will have changed much). I won't speak for Anthony, but that's right in the middle of the mid-LB1/high LB2 tier, which for me arguably extends from the LB4 to LB15 range. I'm running a pre-draft set of projections right now and tentatively have Posluszny around 100 solos. I don't think I'm going to feel comfortable projecting him to the 120 solos he was averaging over the second half of last season, but he may well move closer to the top five than he is now.If you think the consensus among likely staff rankings and posters is likely to be closer to 15 than to 7-10, then I agree he'll probably be undervalued this year. If you think the 7-10 range is undervaluing him, I'd counter with the argument that drafting him around the LB5 slot is pretty risky. Unless you think he's nearly on par with Willis/Beason/Lofton in the long term, it's drafting Posluszny near the limit of his upside.I would agree that I undervalued him in last season's redraft rankings. I think I had him well outside the top 15, which was an over-reaction to his so-so 2008 numbers. In hindsight, I should've trusted my original positive feelings on him (he was near my top ten before the 2008 season).Regardless of Posluszny's true value, one thing is certain for me. I've long since grown tired of spelling Laurinaitis and Posluszny.

 

[alg]

Poz has to be seen as a risk at this point because of the scheme change, so I have no issue with that. What I am really after is a better understanding of the scheme implications.

I passed on Willis for Poz when they came out because I was convinced that a 3-4 ILB was a recipe for mediocrity. That didn't work out well. But I do remember the initial statistical comparison - of what 2-2.5 games? - that Poz was going to put up better numbers. I do not think it out of the real of possibility that he will put up Willis-like numbers now, but the scheme change has thrown me for a loop.

And Jene, you are the go to guy on that one.

PS -I would rank your comps thus:

Willis - the current standard bearer.

Poz - if scheme not a factor he's right there.

Beason - Davis was taking a bunch of value away before injury.

Lofton - maybe not a certain 3 down backer? Disappointing - I will pass.

 

[DynastyFantasyFan]

Poz is switching to a 3-4 next so that could really affect his value.

I thought that a ILB in a 3-4 defense wasn't as valuable as a MLB in a 4-3 until I watched Patrick Willis play. Then I watched David Harris play, then I watched Karlos Dansby play, then I watched Ray Lewis play. Point is, ILBs in a 3-4 can produce very well and there is no reason for Poz to take a hit moving from 4-3 to a 3-4. I think that held true 5-10 years ago before the proliferation of the 3-4 defense but there are too many good ILBs in those defenses these days to ignore.

 

[johnnyboy8102]

Poz is switching to a 3-4 next so that could really affect his value.

I thought that a ILB in a 3-4 defense wasn't as valuable as a MLB in a 4-3 until I watched Patrick Willis play. Then I watched David Harris play, then I watched Karlos Dansby play, then I watched Ray Lewis play. Point is, ILBs in a 3-4 can produce very well and there is no reason for Poz to take a hit moving from 4-3 to a 3-4. I think that held true 5-10 years ago before the proliferation of the 3-4 defense but there are too many good ILBs in those defenses these days to ignore.

Agreed. I have been a Willis owner the last 2 seasons and have owned Lewis since 2002 in many leagues. Going into 2002 many people were saying that the switch to the 3-4 was going to decrease Lewis's numbers and value. I went against that advice and held onto Lewis in any league I owned him. He has gone on to put up these numbers:2002: 5 games, 58 tackles, 2 int, 3 pd, 1 ff, 1 fr2003: 163 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 6 int, 2 ff, 2 fr, 14 pd, 1 td (IMO the best Fantasy season EVER by a MLB/ILB)2004: 147 tackles, 1 sack, 1 ff, 2 fr, 6 pd 2005: Played just 5 games but was a "MLB" in the 4-3. 2006: 14 games, 103 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 int, 1 ff, 1 fr, 8 pd2007:14 games, 120 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 int, 2 ff, 1 fr, 10 pd, 1 td2008: 117 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 int, 2 ff, 2 fr, 9 pd2009: 135 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 ff, 1 fr, 8 pd My point is, if you think a player (such as Poz) is worthy of going against the grain for then do it. The only worries I have about him is that he has injury concerns and I hope that him taking on more Lineman won't bring along more injuries.

 

[BrainDeadGenius]

It's not to say that Poz won't put up good numbers in the 3-4, but I think the risk that he may is enough to trade him to an optimistic owner. Too much of Poz's value will rely on Kyle Williams eating up multiple linemen, and I don't think he's dominant or big enough to do that on a consistent basis. Unless they draft a guy like Dan Williams, I don't think you can rely on Poz for a Tier 1 season. It's definitely possible, but it's a situation I would tend to avoid.

 

[rkelly8686]

You have to factor in the players that these two guys will be playing alongside. Poz will have Andra Davis next to him at ILB and Davis will take away some of Poz's tackle opportunities. (DJ Williams had a dip in tackles per game in 2009).

On the other hand, Laurinaitis will be playing alongside, currently, David Vobora and Chris Chamberlain!

FWIW, the new DC in Buffalo, George Edwards, was LB coach for the Dolphins from 2005-2009 and Channing Crowder didn't exactly light things up.

 

[slayer666]

James Laurinaitis

Like BrainDeadGenius said, Buffalo doesn't have a prototype two-gap nose tackle, and rkelly8686 also made a good point about the lack of quality options flanking Laurinaitis at the WILL and SAM slots.

Throw in the scheme change for Poz as well as the fact that he has missed significant action in two of the last three years, and I would cast my vote for Laurinaitis.

 

[Shutout]

Again, good stuff but I have to ask the one question that seems no one has touched on:

Wasn't Poz a BEAST playing this same position in college? Not saying the two are the same at all, but doesn't it stand to reason that this could be one of those situations where a guy goes back to what he excelled at (ala Vilma when he came back to the 4-3) and just rocks it out?

I agree the front three will dictate a lot of opportunity for Poz but this question is long term, so I'm not looking at it as what the Bills may have THIS season being what he has in front of him two years from now. Actually, its the opposite. I am wondering if Poz will improve in the position he was used to as the Bills get better and if Laurinaitis might see production dips as more talent is added around him (like Ryans has done). I mean, Ryans was the prototype until Willis came along and the Texans steadily improved. It has to be reasonable that the Rams won't suck and stay on the field like this forever, right?

 

[djmich]

Willis - the current standard bearer.Poz - if scheme not a factor he's right there.

 

[JamesTheScot]

In Posluszny's case, he would appear to be a little small on paper to handle a 3-4 ILB role, especially if the Bills' lean toward a more traditional 2-gap front. It's also questionable whether the Buffalo defensive line personnel can handle the switch and help keep blockers off Posluszny. The NT position in particular looks like it'll be undersized and may not be able to draw double teams consistently.

It's not to say that Poz won't put up good numbers in the 3-4, but I think the risk that he may is enough to trade him to an optimistic owner. Too much of Poz's value will rely on Kyle Williams eating up multiple linemen, and I don't think he's dominant or big enough to do that on a consistent basis. Unless they draft a guy like Dan Williams, I don't think you can rely on Poz for a Tier 1 season. It's definitely possible, but it's a situation I would tend to avoid.

You have to factor in the players that these two guys will be playing alongside.FWIW, the new DC in Buffalo, George Edwards, was LB coach for the Dolphins from 2005-2009 and Channing Crowder didn't exactly light things up.

These are all points that make me lean towards Laurinaitis. It's not about Posluszny in the 3-4, it's about the rest of the Bills personnel in the 3-4, and that scares me a little bit. I'm not sure I like the idea of him trying to fight off linemen every down because they've got round pegs in front of him trying to do the job of square ones. If it's a contract/dynasty league and he's available, you can probably justify taking him knowing that in a season or two the personnel in front of him will be there. But for re-draft, I'd tend to let someone else take the risk.

 

[Shutout]

These are all points that make me lean towards Laurinaitis. It's not about Posluszny in the 3-4, it's about the rest of the Bills personnel in the 3-4, and that scares me a little bit. I'm not sure I like the idea of him trying to fight off linemen every down because they've got round pegs in front of him trying to do the job of square ones. If it's a contract/dynasty league and he's available, you can probably justify taking him knowing that in a season or two the personnel in front of him will be there. But for re-draft, I'd tend to let someone else take the risk.

Yeah, its a dynasty so I'm thinking beyond this season. I'm thinking that the pieces will be put into place. Sounds like this one might be 6 in one hand, half a dozen in the other" and I might be fine with either.

 

[doctor_d]

These are all points that make me lean towards Laurinaitis. It's not about Posluszny in the 3-4, it's about the rest of the Bills personnel in the 3-4, and that scares me a little bit. I'm not sure I like the idea of him trying to fight off linemen every down because they've got round pegs in front of him trying to do the job of square ones. If it's a contract/dynasty league and he's available, you can probably justify taking him knowing that in a season or two the personnel in front of him will be there. But for re-draft, I'd tend to let someone else take the risk.

Yeah, its a dynasty so I'm thinking beyond this season. I'm thinking that the pieces will be put into place. Sounds like this one might be 6 in one hand, half a dozen in the other" and I might be fine with either.

Both are good choices, I am surprised both are available in a dynasty league - I might lean towards Laurinaitus because of his age, but PP is a great player.