POST-Combine Rookie RB rankings (1 Viewer)

[madd futher]

By way of introduction, for years I've posted on another website, but this forum has the most traffic, and very sophisticated posters. Unlike Matt, Cecil, Sig and a few others - I'm a fan of all, and I envy their opportunity to actually get to see and meet these guys personally and study real game film - but my 'scouting method' is pretty much confined to YouTube and websurfing just about every available piece of info on the net about all potential prospects. My notes on each player are volumnuous and often contradictory. I spend a lot of time resolving differences in primary sources perceptions and observation and then coming to conclusions about conflicting reports. So I'm not exactly 'parroting' any specific sources here.

I spent the last few nights reviewing the top 20 of the RB class, especially taking another long look at Helu, Scott and Mario Fannin. While this ranking is very similar to my pre-combine list (as I expected), it is amazing but natural that I initially get carried away with combine numbers in some cases, and that I do miss things when I review all my pre-combine notes, only to have combine numbers force a review. I guess for me that is the real value of the combine.

That said, here's my new post combine top 20 RBs:

Tier 1: Barring injury, these two guys could be studs next year for the right team. From the pre-combine ranking, there were no changes to this tier.

1. Mark Ingram Alabama (5‘ 9” 215# 4.62) - Not any holes in his game that I can see. The best surperlative would be just to call him a complete running back.

2. Mikel LeShoure Illinois (5’11 1/2’ 227# 4.59) - Amazing combo of power, explosiveness and speed. Soft hands, great in pass protection, ball security and all of the little things that matter.

Tier 2: Any of these guys could develop into stud RBs in the NFL. I juggled the pre-combine order, but I have all three ranked very close.

3. Ryan Williams Virginia Tech (5‘ 9 ½” 212 # 4.61) - He is a DeAngelo Williams-like runner with excellent vision and patience, but he needs work as a receiver and especially as a pass blocker. Talent? Yes. He’s just not nearly as ‘pro-ready’ as those above him. But he’s young - just give him a year or two.

4. DeMarco Murray Oklahoma (5’ 11 ½” 213# 4.41) - I really like this kid - he‘s another potential stud. He has outstanding hands and running skills, and is a willing blocker as well. I think he can be a 3 down back, he just needs to add some more lower body strength.

5. Kendall Hunter Oklahoma State (5‘ 7 ¼” 199# 4.53) - His upside is probably Brian Westbrook, his downside is probably Danny Woodhead. I also see a little Ahmad Bradshaw in his running style too. He’s got elite quickness, great hands, and is amazing in pass protection for his size .

Tier 3: I believe these RBs could develop into starters at the next level. Despite a fine combine, I moved Helu down based on my total note review. Despite his measurables, I just don't see him in the same tier with these guys.

6. Delone Carter Syracuse (5’8 1/2” 222# 4.56) - The first of the “workhorse type’ RBs. Nothing flashy, just a one-cut runner who gives 100% effort on the field. Patience to the hole, burst through it. Think of a younger Marion Barber.

7. Dion Lewis Pittsburgh (5’6 1/2” 193# 4.57) - A little back who runs with a big chip on his shoulder, Lewis can bench press over twice his body weight. He has good, but not elite speed, and needs major work on his pass blocking, but he’s been the most productive back in the country in his two years of college, eclipsing LeSean McCoy’s at Pitt numbers by far.

8. Daniel Thomas Kansas St (6‘1/4“ 230# 4.6?) - As a runner, he has very good burst and speed and he’s a tackle-breaker - extremely difficult to bring down. He’s also a capable and willing pass blocker with good hands out of the backfield.

9. Bilal Powell Louisville (5’11” 207# 4.5?) - Powell is another talent who runs with power and agility and ‘home-run speed in the open field. He’s also got good hands as a receiver. He lacks some patience and he is at this time just a little light, but he has the same upside as the others in this tier.

10. Alex Green Hawaii (6’ ¼” 225# 4.53) - Green is a power runner who runs with a very nice pad level, has quick feet with just enough agility, and is a very good receiver out of the backfield.

Tier 4: This is a grab bag of ten more RBs that I believe can have an impact in the right situation, but they will need to round out their game. Da'Rel Scott and Mario Fannin made it into my top 20 list. In Scott's case it was based on my note review after the great combine, and Fannin made the list at #20 primarily on measurables.

11. Roy Helu Nebraska (6" 216# 4.42) - Helu is the hardest RB for me to rank in this RB class. He could be tier 3 if he runs with more authority in the pros. Maybe it is his running style or maybe a result of the recurrant shoulder injury he played through for much of two years, but he appears to run soft for his size - as if not really want to attack a defender. He will take it up the middle with enough quickness and has the speed to break off some good runs. and he is a decent enough pass blocker, but he was in a RBBC and wasn't used enough as a receiver.

12. Shane Vereen California (5’10 1/4” 210# 4.50) - Another back who has both the speed and the power but hasn’t put it all together. My impression is that he just doesn’t break enough tackles for his talent. And he hasn’t been asked to pass block very much.

13. Da’Rel Scott Maryland (5’11” 211# 4.34) Scott has the prototypical speed, strength, balance and low center of gravity required of an NFL RB. Although he usually tries to break everything outside, he is basically a straight line runner, lacking both vision and agility. Despite his size, he struggles in short yardage and has had ball security issues. But after revewing my notes, he did move way up my list from #20 to #13.

14. Jordan Todman UConn (5' 9" 203# 4.45) Very productive collegiate runner with great vision, patience and quick feet. But he's definitely not a strong runner between the tackles - he likes to bounce everything outside. Also a poor pass blocker. If he can not add bulk and learn how to run inside effectively, he won't be more than just a situational back or return guy.

15. Derrick Locke - Kentucky (5’8 1/4” 188# 4.40) Just a quick, shifty runner who can make that first defender miss or he can catch the ball out of the backfield and he has the speed to take it to the house. I'd say that Darren Sproles is his ceiling.

16. Anthony Allen Georgia Tech (6’ ¾” 228# 4.59) - A power runner who lacks vision and quick feet to get you much more than what is there to be gotten. He does, however, have the ability to catch the ball as an outlet receiver out of the backfield.

17. Jamie Harper Clemson (5‘ 11 1/4” 233# 4.59) - The measurable are there - speed, size, power. He has decent receiving and pass blocking skill as well. He dances too much, and just hasn’t figured out how to run yet.

18. Darren Evans Virginia Tech (6’ 227# 4.58) - He runs well between the tackles with a good pad level. A good pass blocker and North/South runner who could have an early impact. But lack of pass catching ability and a 'second-gear' will limit his upside some.

19. Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon St (5‘6“ 196# 4.45 4.64) - Quizz is one of those little guys who could line up in the backfield or catch the ball out of the slot. He’s just a slightly bigger version of Dexter McCluster, but he lacks both McCluster's quickness and his speed.

20. Mario Fannin Auburn (5'10 1/2" 231# 4.38) Great measurables, but very little college productivity. Fannin is a powerful runner who has nifty feet and balance for his size, but is not instinctive. As a receiver, he is a good route runner with soft hands and he's a willing blocker. He put the ball on the ground far too often and he was been nicked up quit a bit in college.

Chime in with comments.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Dion Lewis looked better than all of them at the Combine. Not sure I would rank him 7th. Also, don't be so sure Leshoure is better than Ryan Williams. How quickly we forget 2009.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Nice rankings. I completely agree that Ingram and Leshoure are a tier above the rest.

Couple things I`d change:

1) I`d probably put Kendall Hunter at the top of tier 2.

2) I`d make Tier 3 bigger, putting in Roy Helu, Shane Vereen, and Jordan Todman and I`d move Alex Green down to Tier 4.

As far as the enigma that is Roy Helu, I think with his combination of size and speed he`d be really good in a zone-blocking-scheme. His agility leaves a lot to be desired, but in a cut-and-go offense and think he can be very successful.

 

[mlball77]

Interesting stuff. I generally like what you have here. I might move Lewis up to the bottom of tier 2 by making that tier one spot bigger. Lewis' not-so-great 40 showing at the combine doesn't concern me nearly as much as the agility he showed wows me.

Todman is one that intrigues me based on his college stats and how he fared at the combine. I really don't know a ton about him though... and it is discouraging to hear he isn't great running between the tackles or pass blocking. This will severely limit his NFL value if he doesn't improve.

 

[Concept Coop]

Interesting stuff. I generally like what you have here. I might move Lewis up to the bottom of tier 2 by making that tier one spot bigger. Lewis' not-so-great 40 showing at the combine doesn't concern me nearly as much as the agility he showed wows me. Todman is one that intrigues me based on his college stats and how he fared at the combine. I really don't know a ton about him though... and it is discouraging to hear he isn't great running between the tackles or pass blocking. This will severely limit his NFL value if he doesn't improve.

Todman and Vereen need to be MUCH higher on your list. Kiper had them at 4 and 5 BEFORE they did well at the combine. Carter, Powell, Green and Helu are not better football players than Vereen and Todman.

 

[moderated]

Interesting stuff. I generally like what you have here. I might move Lewis up to the bottom of tier 2 by making that tier one spot bigger. Lewis' not-so-great 40 showing at the combine doesn't concern me nearly as much as the agility he showed wows me.

Todman is one that intrigues me based on his college stats and how he fared at the combine. I really don't know a ton about him though... and it is discouraging to hear he isn't great running between the tackles or pass blocking. This will severely limit his NFL value if he doesn't improve.

Todman is actually solid between the tackles. the statement that he bounces everything outside and is weak between the tackles is 100% wrong.

 

[mlball77]

Interesting stuff. I generally like what you have here. I might move Lewis up to the bottom of tier 2 by making that tier one spot bigger. Lewis' not-so-great 40 showing at the combine doesn't concern me nearly as much as the agility he showed wows me.

Todman is one that intrigues me based on his college stats and how he fared at the combine. I really don't know a ton about him though... and it is discouraging to hear he isn't great running between the tackles or pass blocking. This will severely limit his NFL value if he doesn't improve.

Todman is actually solid between the tackles. the statement that he bounces everything outside and is weak between the tackles is 100% wrong.

Ok, interesting. If he is solid between the tackles, I'm definitely interested in him. I liked what I saw from him at the combine, but I don't weigh combine results too heavily in the grand scheme of player analysis.

 

[moderated]

Interesting stuff. I generally like what you have here. I might move Lewis up to the bottom of tier 2 by making that tier one spot bigger. Lewis' not-so-great 40 showing at the combine doesn't concern me nearly as much as the agility he showed wows me.

Todman is one that intrigues me based on his college stats and how he fared at the combine. I really don't know a ton about him though... and it is discouraging to hear he isn't great running between the tackles or pass blocking. This will severely limit his NFL value if he doesn't improve.

Todman is actually solid between the tackles. the statement that he bounces everything outside and is weak between the tackles is 100% wrong.

Ok, interesting. If he is solid between the tackles, I'm definitely interested in him. I liked what I saw from him at the combine, but I don't weigh combine results too heavily in the grand scheme of player analysis.

Todman has great vision in traffic and can slide through very slight holes. When a play is designed to be between the tackles he almost never bounces it outside, in fact when they run plays where he has the option to take it outside or cut back into the middle of the field he chooses to cut it back if there is a better hole there. Sure UConn called outside plays for him because he's solid there as well but it's a good thing he has that ability, makes him dangerous.Todman isn't going to be a pounder but he has the ability to run plays very effectively both up the middle and to the outside. He isn't weak in either area.

 

[madd futher]

Interesting stuff. I generally like what you have here. I might move Lewis up to the bottom of tier 2 by making that tier one spot bigger. Lewis' not-so-great 40 showing at the combine doesn't concern me nearly as much as the agility he showed wows me.

Todman is one that intrigues me based on his college stats and how he fared at the combine. I really don't know a ton about him though... and it is discouraging to hear he isn't great running between the tackles or pass blocking. This will severely limit his NFL value if he doesn't improve.

Todman is actually solid between the tackles. the statement that he bounces everything outside and is weak between the tackles is 100% wrong.

Ok, interesting. If he is solid between the tackles, I'm definitely interested in him. I liked what I saw from him at the combine, but I don't weigh combine results too heavily in the grand scheme of player analysis.

Todman has great vision in traffic and can slide through very slight holes. When a play is designed to be between the tackles he almost never bounces it outside, in fact when they run plays where he has the option to take it outside or cut back into the middle of the field he chooses to cut it back if there is a better hole there. Sure UConn called outside plays for him because he's solid there as well but it's a good thing he has that ability, makes him dangerous.Todman isn't going to be a pounder but he has the ability to run plays very effectively both up the middle and to the outside. He isn't weak in either area.

There is a lot to like about Jordan Todman. I probably have him a few places under-ranked here, but he would still be in my Tier 4 - need to round out their game category. Most have him going off in the draft anywhere from late 2nd round to 4th round, which IMO is elevated due to his immediate value as a returner. As a runner and returner, he does have very good speed and great patience, vision and quicks. But for fantasy relevance without return yardage, IMO he's got to be lower.But regarding the assertion that he likes to bounce outside, here are excerpts from some scouting reports I have collected. Like I said, I’ve put a lot of effort into ’reconciling’ contradictory reports. (I have more that are essentially similar, and there is a huge consensus of opinion here). I’ve also watched his highlight video and observed that he likes to bounce plays outside.

But here’s excerpts from some sources:

ProDraftCentral: Another one of my top sleepers in this draft, I’ve been high on Todman for months. He is a very shifty runner out of the backfield and can easily make defenders miss. What I really like about him is his ability to make the most out of each run. Unlike the top running back in this class, LeShoure, he recognizes when and when not to go for the big play, if that makes sense. Like Locke, he is a bit under-sized, but packs more of a punch than Locke does. He has above-average speed, but great quickness. He has very good vision and makes quick decisions when running the ball. He was one of the premier running backs in the country this past season, and did all of his damage on a very mediocre UConn team. He does need to improve between the tackles. He swings all of his runs outside, which is fine, but he needs to prove he has the power to be an inside runner as well.

TheNationalFootballReport: Scouts don’t deny Todman has talent. Questions remain about his toughness and if he can take a pounding at the pro level. He certainly has outside running ability but is questionable between the tackles. Will not break alot of tackles. Doesn’t seem to like contact and too often runs out of bounds. Will need to vastly improve his blocking.

We believe Todman will offer value to a team as a change of pace back and will come off the board in the late 3rd to early 4th round of the 2011 NFL draft.

The 3-4.com: Doesn’t finish runs like you want to see. Lacks the ability to break a lot of tackles. Will unnecessarily bounce runs to the outside. He has a small frame, but as evidenced by Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew, it is still possible to be a successful 3 down tailback and be shorter than 5’9. Toddman needs to bulk up, and add girth to his lower half. His slight lower body seems to be the reason for his lack of break tackle ability.

Draft101.com: Extremely thin legs for a running back. Runs hard between the tackles despite size [but] will never be known for his power. Needs to improve as a pass blocker especially blitz pickups.

SidelineScouting.com: Needs to add bulk... Not a great runner between the tackles, likes to bounce everything to the outside... Pass blocking ability is limited, lunges at defenders, doesn't have the size to be very effective as a blocker... Missed one game in 2010 due to an arm injury... Likely nothing more than a situational back at the NFL level... Can get pushed backwards by defenders, has trouble getting extra yards when larger players get a hold of him.

From everything I've seen and read, I think my capsule description is pretty accurate. Obviously the phrases "swings all of his runs outside" and "likes to bounce everything outside" are not absolutes but reflect his general tendencies.

He may add bulk and develop into more, but right now I see him only as a change-of-pace back and kick returner. Although he is a very talented runner, his pass blocking at this stage won't get him onto the field enough as a 3rd down back to pay significant fantasy dividends very soon. But if you are willing to wait, hopefully he adds bulk (but adding bulk to genetically skinny legs is hard weight to add) and improves his pass blocking. If so, at some point, Todman just might be a guy with major upside.

 

[beto]

Wow. Great work. This class is much deeper than I originally thought.

The comments you make on Daniel Thomas don't match the ranking. What is keeping you from ranking him higher?

For the draft, I will be watching who goes to the Redskins. They don't have many early round picks so I'm guessing they take a guy down your list after the 4th round.

 

[Warhogs]

In your initial post you stated you have done this at some other sources in the past. Is there any way of seeing what your rankings were of the past few years? I would be interested in seeing how your track record looks for rankings. Nice job.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Tier 4: This is a grab bag of ten more RBs that I believe can have an impact in the right situation, but they will need to round out their game. Da'Rel Scott and Mario Fannin made it into my top 20 list. In Scott's case it was based on my note review after the great combine, and Fannin made the list at #20 primarily on measurables.

12. Shane Vereen California (5’10 1/4” 210# 4.50) - Another back who has both the speed and the power but hasn’t put it all together. My impression is that he just doesn’t break enough tackles for his talent. And he hasn’t been asked to pass block very much.

Chime in with comments.

I am one of Vereen's biggest fans on the board, so take this with a grain a salt; but I think you are off base on everything you wrote describing him."Hasn't put it all together"- He ran for 1150+ yards and had 16tds in 12 games (no bowl for Cal). Last year, while splitting with Jahvid Best, he ran for 950 yards and had 14td's. What would have been putting it together?

"He doesn't break enough tackles for his talent" - I think he breaks a lot more tackles than most of truly versatile backs in the draft.

"Has not been asked to pass block much"- Not sure where you are getting/seeing this info. He was a true 3 down back at Cal. He was asked to pass block a lot.

He will also likely be a returner at the next level

 

[No Way Jose]

Interesting stuff. I generally like what you have here. I might move Lewis up to the bottom of tier 2 by making that tier one spot bigger. Lewis' not-so-great 40 showing at the combine doesn't concern me nearly as much as the agility he showed wows me.

Todman is one that intrigues me based on his college stats and how he fared at the combine. I really don't know a ton about him though... and it is discouraging to hear he isn't great running between the tackles or pass blocking. This will severely limit his NFL value if he doesn't improve.

Todman is actually solid between the tackles. the statement that he bounces everything outside and is weak between the tackles is 100% wrong.

Ok, interesting. If he is solid between the tackles, I'm definitely interested in him. I liked what I saw from him at the combine, but I don't weigh combine results too heavily in the grand scheme of player analysis.

Todman has great vision in traffic and can slide through very slight holes. When a play is designed to be between the tackles he almost never bounces it outside, in fact when they run plays where he has the option to take it outside or cut back into the middle of the field he chooses to cut it back if there is a better hole there. Sure UConn called outside plays for him because he's solid there as well but it's a good thing he has that ability, makes him dangerous.Todman isn't going to be a pounder but he has the ability to run plays very effectively both up the middle and to the outside. He isn't weak in either area.

There is a lot to like about Jordan Todman. I probably have him a few places under-ranked here, but he would still be in my Tier 4 - need to round out their game category. Most have him going off in the draft anywhere from late 2nd round to 4th round, which IMO is elevated due to his immediate value as a returner. As a runner and returner, he does have very good speed and great patience, vision and quicks. But for fantasy relevance without return yardage, IMO he's got to be lower.But regarding the assertion that he likes to bounce outside, here are excerpts from some scouting reports I have collected. Like I said, I’ve put a lot of effort into ’reconciling’ contradictory reports. (I have more that are essentially similar, and there is a huge consensus of opinion here). I’ve also watched his highlight video and observed that he likes to bounce plays outside.

But here’s excerpts from some sources:

ProDraftCentral: Another one of my top sleepers in this draft, I’ve been high on Todman for months. He is a very shifty runner out of the backfield and can easily make defenders miss. What I really like about him is his ability to make the most out of each run. Unlike the top running back in this class, LeShoure, he recognizes when and when not to go for the big play, if that makes sense. Like Locke, he is a bit under-sized, but packs more of a punch than Locke does. He has above-average speed, but great quickness. He has very good vision and makes quick decisions when running the ball. He was one of the premier running backs in the country this past season, and did all of his damage on a very mediocre UConn team. He does need to improve between the tackles. He swings all of his runs outside, which is fine, but he needs to prove he has the power to be an inside runner as well.

TheNationalFootballReport: Scouts don’t deny Todman has talent. Questions remain about his toughness and if he can take a pounding at the pro level. He certainly has outside running ability but is questionable between the tackles. Will not break alot of tackles. Doesn’t seem to like contact and too often runs out of bounds. Will need to vastly improve his blocking.

We believe Todman will offer value to a team as a change of pace back and will come off the board in the late 3rd to early 4th round of the 2011 NFL draft.

The 3-4.com: Doesn’t finish runs like you want to see. Lacks the ability to break a lot of tackles. Will unnecessarily bounce runs to the outside. He has a small frame, but as evidenced by Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew, it is still possible to be a successful 3 down tailback and be shorter than 5’9. Toddman needs to bulk up, and add girth to his lower half. His slight lower body seems to be the reason for his lack of break tackle ability.

Draft101.com: Extremely thin legs for a running back. Runs hard between the tackles despite size [but] will never be known for his power. Needs to improve as a pass blocker especially blitz pickups.

SidelineScouting.com: Needs to add bulk... Not a great runner between the tackles, likes to bounce everything to the outside... Pass blocking ability is limited, lunges at defenders, doesn't have the size to be very effective as a blocker... Missed one game in 2010 due to an arm injury... Likely nothing more than a situational back at the NFL level... Can get pushed backwards by defenders, has trouble getting extra yards when larger players get a hold of him.

From everything I've seen and read, I think my capsule description is pretty accurate. Obviously the phrases "swings all of his runs outside" and "likes to bounce everything outside" are not absolutes but reflect his general tendencies.

He may add bulk and develop into more, but right now I see him only as a change-of-pace back and kick returner. Although he is a very talented runner, his pass blocking at this stage won't get him onto the field enough as a 3rd down back to pay significant fantasy dividends very soon. But if you are willing to wait, hopefully he adds bulk (but adding bulk to genetically skinny legs is hard weight to add) and improves his pass blocking. If so, at some point, Todman just might be a guy with major upside.

Good postingHowever, how dare you bring sources and facts in to an argument.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Tier 4: This is a grab bag of ten more RBs that I believe can have an impact in the right situation, but they will need to round out their game. Da'Rel Scott and Mario Fannin made it into my top 20 list. In Scott's case it was based on my note review after the great combine, and Fannin made the list at #20 primarily on measurables.

12. Shane Vereen California (5’10 1/4” 210# 4.50) - Another back who has both the speed and the power but hasn’t put it all together. My impression is that he just doesn’t break enough tackles for his talent. And he hasn’t been asked to pass block very much.

Chime in with comments.

I am one of Vereen's biggest fans on the board, so take this with a grain a salt; but I think you are off base on everything you wrote describing him."Hasn't put it all together"- He ran for 1150+ yards and had 16tds in 12 games (no bowl for Cal). Last year, while splitting with Jahvid Best, he ran for 950 yards and had 14td's. What would have been putting it together?

"He doesn't break enough tackles for his talent" - I think he breaks a lot more tackles than most of truly versatile backs in the draft.

"Has not been asked to pass block much"- Not sure where you are getting/seeing this info. He was a true 3 down back at Cal, who typically runs a pro-style offense. He was asked to pass block a lot.

He will also likely be a returner at the next level

Edit: I think there are reasons not to have Vereen high- he has probably played 15 pounds lighter, he isn't exceptionally fast, you would like him to younger or more explosive, how many carries can he take at the next level, etc.I jut don't think the reasons that you have listed are particularly accurate.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Interesting stuff. I generally like what you have here. I might move Lewis up to the bottom of tier 2 by making that tier one spot bigger. Lewis' not-so-great 40 showing at the combine doesn't concern me nearly as much as the agility he showed wows me.

Todman is one that intrigues me based on his college stats and how he fared at the combine. I really don't know a ton about him though... and it is discouraging to hear he isn't great running between the tackles or pass blocking. This will severely limit his NFL value if he doesn't improve.

Todman is actually solid between the tackles. the statement that he bounces everything outside and is weak between the tackles is 100% wrong.

Ok, interesting. If he is solid between the tackles, I'm definitely interested in him. I liked what I saw from him at the combine, but I don't weigh combine results too heavily in the grand scheme of player analysis.

Todman has great vision in traffic and can slide through very slight holes. When a play is designed to be between the tackles he almost never bounces it outside, in fact when they run plays where he has the option to take it outside or cut back into the middle of the field he chooses to cut it back if there is a better hole there. Sure UConn called outside plays for him because he's solid there as well but it's a good thing he has that ability, makes him dangerous.Todman isn't going to be a pounder but he has the ability to run plays very effectively both up the middle and to the outside. He isn't weak in either area.

There is a lot to like about Jordan Todman. I probably have him a few places under-ranked here, but he would still be in my Tier 4 - need to round out their game category. Most have him going off in the draft anywhere from late 2nd round to 4th round, which IMO is elevated due to his immediate value as a returner. As a runner and returner, he does have very good speed and great patience, vision and quicks. But for fantasy relevance without return yardage, IMO he's got to be lower.But regarding the assertion that he likes to bounce outside, here are excerpts from some scouting reports I have collected. Like I said, I’ve put a lot of effort into ’reconciling’ contradictory reports. (I have more that are essentially similar, and there is a huge consensus of opinion here). I’ve also watched his highlight video and observed that he likes to bounce plays outside.

But here’s excerpts from some sources:

ProDraftCentral: Another one of my top sleepers in this draft, I’ve been high on Todman for months. He is a very shifty runner out of the backfield and can easily make defenders miss. What I really like about him is his ability to make the most out of each run. Unlike the top running back in this class, LeShoure, he recognizes when and when not to go for the big play, if that makes sense. Like Locke, he is a bit under-sized, but packs more of a punch than Locke does. He has above-average speed, but great quickness. He has very good vision and makes quick decisions when running the ball. He was one of the premier running backs in the country this past season, and did all of his damage on a very mediocre UConn team. He does need to improve between the tackles. He swings all of his runs outside, which is fine, but he needs to prove he has the power to be an inside runner as well.

TheNationalFootballReport: Scouts don’t deny Todman has talent. Questions remain about his toughness and if he can take a pounding at the pro level. He certainly has outside running ability but is questionable between the tackles. Will not break alot of tackles. Doesn’t seem to like contact and too often runs out of bounds. Will need to vastly improve his blocking.

We believe Todman will offer value to a team as a change of pace back and will come off the board in the late 3rd to early 4th round of the 2011 NFL draft.

The 3-4.com: Doesn’t finish runs like you want to see. Lacks the ability to break a lot of tackles. Will unnecessarily bounce runs to the outside. He has a small frame, but as evidenced by Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew, it is still possible to be a successful 3 down tailback and be shorter than 5’9. Toddman needs to bulk up, and add girth to his lower half. His slight lower body seems to be the reason for his lack of break tackle ability.

Draft101.com: Extremely thin legs for a running back. Runs hard between the tackles despite size [but] will never be known for his power. Needs to improve as a pass blocker especially blitz pickups.

SidelineScouting.com: Needs to add bulk... Not a great runner between the tackles, likes to bounce everything to the outside... Pass blocking ability is limited, lunges at defenders, doesn't have the size to be very effective as a blocker... Missed one game in 2010 due to an arm injury... Likely nothing more than a situational back at the NFL level... Can get pushed backwards by defenders, has trouble getting extra yards when larger players get a hold of him.

From everything I've seen and read, I think my capsule description is pretty accurate. Obviously the phrases "swings all of his runs outside" and "likes to bounce everything outside" are not absolutes but reflect his general tendencies.

He may add bulk and develop into more, but right now I see him only as a change-of-pace back and kick returner. Although he is a very talented runner, his pass blocking at this stage won't get him onto the field enough as a 3rd down back to pay significant fantasy dividends very soon. But if you are willing to wait, hopefully he adds bulk (but adding bulk to genetically skinny legs is hard weight to add) and improves his pass blocking. If so, at some point, Todman just might be a guy with major upside.

Good postingHowever, how dare you bring sources and facts in to an argument.

I agree that madd futher has done some excellent work which will foster discussion and debate. He is ready to talk about a lot of players. I certainly couldn't comment in depth about 20 rbs right now with any specificity. The problem with quoting other draft sources, particularly in early march, is that lots of guys that post NFL draft info are doing cutting and pasting of other people's work. Information is rehashed without analysis. Very few people watch more than a game or youtube video or two on each prospect. So there is a tendency to repeat what you have seen in other places, without doing careful looking and a thorough breakdown.

 

[thurston4040]

I like your ranking of Delone Carter at #6. He's a tough runner that will surprise a lot of people.

 

[Boone22]

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Jordan Todman will be drafted inside the top ten RB's, and is more likely to see significant work in his career then quite a few you'll listed ahead of him.

 

[MAC_32]

Mine didn't change much, added Scott to the list though simply because I don't know much about him and he looked good in shorts and a t shirt. Based off strictly, talent

1. Mark Ingram

2. Mikel LeShoure

3. Jacquizz Rodgers - I realize he isn't going to be drafted too highly, but him and Lewis are being seriously under valued. I'll be targeting him in my rookie drafts...my guess would be early round 2

4. Dion Lewis - I'm tempted to bump him above Quizz, really could go either way with them

5. Delone Carter

6. Ryan Williams - a higher fantasy ceiling, but so many risks

7. Bilal Powell

8. Daniel Thomas - the next three guys are in no particular order, I think they're all solid backups but little more

9. Shane Vereen

10. Kendall Hunter

11. DeMarco Murray - fool's gold

12. Da'Rel Scott

There weren't many wow performances, and no bombs either. Everyone basically confirmed what I already thought about them, although Powell who I hadn't watched didn't disappoint after I thought my expectations had gotten too high from my readings.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am not very high on LeShore. I just didn't see the athleticism in his combine. He is no Mendenhall, that is for sure. I actually would put Helu as high as 3 or 4 amongst backs. No other back brings his combo of size, speed, quickness, and high level college production. He averaged 6.0 ypc as a 3 year starter. He killed it in the drills. I don't understand why guys like DeMarco Murray or Dion Lewis (who I like) are ahead of him.

 

[eakfootball]

here are mine

1 Mikel Leshoure

2 Mark Ingram

3 Ryan Williams

4 De Marco Murry

5 Dion Lewis

6 Kendall Hunter

7 Daniel Thomas

8 Jordan Todman

9 Shane Vereen

10 Taiwan Jones

11 Deleon Carter

12 Quiz Rodgers

13 Bilial Powell

14 Derrick Locke

15 Darren Evans

16 Mario Fannan

17 Roy Helu

18 Da'rel Scott

19 Allen Bradford

20 Noel Divine

21 Armondo Allen

22 John Clay

23 Stevan Ridley

24 Evan Royster

25 Anthony Allen

 

[BigTex]

Helu runs too stiff for my liking. There's no question he produced but when I've watched him play nothing about him stood out. He's a grinder in my opinion.

 

[madd futher]

Tier 4: This is a grab bag of ten more RBs that I believe can have an impact in the right situation, but they will need to round out their game. Da'Rel Scott and Mario Fannin made it into my top 20 list. In Scott's case it was based on my note review after the great combine, and Fannin made the list at #20 primarily on measurables.

12. Shane Vereen California (5’10 1/4” 210# 4.50) - Another back who has both the speed and the power but hasn’t put it all together. My impression is that he just doesn’t break enough tackles for his talent. And he hasn’t been asked to pass block very much.

Chime in with comments.

I am one of Vereen's biggest fans on the board, so take this with a grain a salt; but I think you are off base on everything you wrote describing him."Hasn't put it all together"- He ran for 1150+ yards and had 16tds in 12 games (no bowl for Cal). Last year, while splitting with Jahvid Best, he ran for 950 yards and had 14td's. What would have been putting it together?

"He doesn't break enough tackles for his talent" - I think he breaks a lot more tackles than most of truly versatile backs in the draft.

"Has not been asked to pass block much"- Not sure where you are getting/seeing this info. He was a true 3 down back at Cal. He was asked to pass block a lot.

He will also likely be a returner at the next level

Regarding Vereen, I plead guilty. He's one of the backs I hadn't paid quite as much attention to, and there was much less out there on him when I was putting together my notes. After watching his highlight videos, I like what I see and I will do more research. I admit with him I could even have him a tier low. He's big enough, fast enough and moves well enough to potentially move to the "I believe these RBs could develop into starters at the next level" group. One thing I've learned from feedback both on this board and the other is that certain posters are enamored with certain players (we all have our biases), and it is not extremely important to get the absolute ranking right at this point, but to get the tiers right. So I will again review him. I feel very comfortable with Ingram and LeShoure as the only RBs that fit the "could to be studs next year for the right team" tier. I also feel confident that the three RBs in the "could develop into stud RBs in the NFL" are really the only three RBs that I would include there. Even though I understand the sentiment to move Lewis up there, I'm see starter potential, but not strong enough stud potential.

Tier 3 and 4 get a little more problematic. Guys who are seniors and played in the all-star games are much easier to feel comfortable with than underclassmen who only started for a year or two. I believe that Carter, Powell and Alex Green are 3 guys who are flying under the radar that I've studied very much, and that their game will translate well to the next level as potential early starters. On review, Vereen might elevate to that class.

Some posters (draftnicks especally) put a lot of stock in, and perhaps think this ranking should mirror approximately when these guys will get drafted in the NFL. While there may be a loose coorelation, I'm not a draftnick, so I don't even care about that at this stage. With limited evaluation tools, (unlike Cecil and Matt who actually get to see and talk to these guys) I try to translate their game and project their fantasy value for dynasty purposes (not including return yards). In the past I've been fairly successful at doing it this way. (BTW, I do have one bias I might mention: I tend to downgrade quite a bit those backs that have poorer blocking skills - especially smaller backs like Todman).

BUT ....it is most important to realize that this is only the second of 4 rankings that I do for both the RB and WR positions. I think it makes sense to try to look at a rookie class in a four-stage evaluation process and i don't try to get too far ahead of myself in it. [Note: This response was posed on the other board after my stage 1 rankings in partially explaining my "low" ranking of Torrey Smith.]

It may give some insight into my thinking here.

A ) Post-all-star games but pre-combine: - The stage we are in right now. This week is the week of the last all-star game, the NFLPA game (formerly TX v Nation). It generally has the least amount of talent (but occasionally one can uncover a small school diamond-in-the-rough). This year I jumped the gun on my 'rookie lists' because I don't believe that the final all-star game will impact the rankings too much if at all, but I will post a follow-up where it might add a player to these lists. As I have often said - I don't worry too much about whether I get a player's absolute ranking accurate, I'm more concerned with trying to have the player slotted in the right talent tier. For instance in the debate about Torrey Smith, there is not all that much difference in slotting him 4th or 8th at this stage of the game. The fact that he dropped out of the second tier and into the top of the third really only means I have a few more reservations about him than I do a Titus Young for instance. But I do try to make the Pre-combine lists as pure an estimate of translatable talent into the NFL as possible.

B ) Post-combine but pre-NFL draft - Again we have almost no idea of where these prospects are going to land yet, however the information we can collect immediately before, during, and after the Combine process can have a great bearing on the probable success of these guys, and will allow us to re-shuffle this deck a little. Regarding the combine itself, I'm not a great believer in the value of 40 times, but how players perform in position drills at the combine (as well as other info that comes out of the process) DOES tend to re-arrange the board somewhat. Again considering Torrey Smith, if he stands out in the combine position drills and has positives in all other aspects of the combine, he could move up with my tier two guys. (I will place far more emphasis on these other things than on what his 40 time turns out to be - we already know he's fast).

C) The NFL draft and post-draft assessment - This is the step where factors that have very little to do with a player's raw 'translatables' begin to have a great deal to do with the total evaluation process. This is where it began to became evident that the rookie draft order of last year's RB class would be Ryan Mathews, then Jahvid Best, and then CJ Spiller - based mainly on the situation that they landed in. To directly answer your question, there is no way right now (even with AJ Green or Julio Jones, who will both likely be day one starters just about anywhere) thatquestions of: which team will draft them, an assessment of their opportunity to get on the field, and who their QB might be can even be remotely guessed at or accounted for at the assessment stage we are at right now. So we have no choice but to just wait and see the whole process unfold.

D) The post-draft into the pre-season stage is the final stage of the assessment process. NFL teams have sorted out a lot of roster decisions and we've gotten a glimpse of how these guys performed in OTAs, etc. At this point - hopefully just before our rookie drafts - we re-do the order of our rankings again to reflect how the 'raw translatibles' mesh with the situation in which they find themselves, and really, we already have some clues as to how they have begun to adapt to their situation. We can also begin to estimate the value of the rookies versus veterans for purposes of developing a comprehensive ranking of player valuation.

So there is a big problem in jumping too far ahead - far too many unknowns - and it is a big crap-shoot to be in leagues that have their rookie dynasty drafts before the final evaluation stage I described. My stage 2 list presented here will be radically altered by stages 3 and 4.

Then what is the value of doing the rookie assessment in four clearly defined stages? Why even care at all about a 'pecking order' this early? Other than just being fun to do and to discuss, I believe that by isolating the variables into these four stages it makes for a far more logical dynasty decision-making process and a better over-all result.

rapidfireweasel hit it on the head that the purpose of a list like this IS to foster debate, and so I really do appreciate all criticisms and comments you guys throw at me. Let's keep it going!

 

[krsone21]

Good stuff Madd Futher. I like seeing different takes on players. Looking forward to your WR rankings as well.

 

[moderated]

Interesting stuff. I generally like what you have here. I might move Lewis up to the bottom of tier 2 by making that tier one spot bigger. Lewis' not-so-great 40 showing at the combine doesn't concern me nearly as much as the agility he showed wows me.

Todman is one that intrigues me based on his college stats and how he fared at the combine. I really don't know a ton about him though... and it is discouraging to hear he isn't great running between the tackles or pass blocking. This will severely limit his NFL value if he doesn't improve.

Todman is actually solid between the tackles. the statement that he bounces everything outside and is weak between the tackles is 100% wrong.

Ok, interesting. If he is solid between the tackles, I'm definitely interested in him. I liked what I saw from him at the combine, but I don't weigh combine results too heavily in the grand scheme of player analysis.

Todman has great vision in traffic and can slide through very slight holes. When a play is designed to be between the tackles he almost never bounces it outside, in fact when they run plays where he has the option to take it outside or cut back into the middle of the field he chooses to cut it back if there is a better hole there. Sure UConn called outside plays for him because he's solid there as well but it's a good thing he has that ability, makes him dangerous.Todman isn't going to be a pounder but he has the ability to run plays very effectively both up the middle and to the outside. He isn't weak in either area.

There is a lot to like about Jordan Todman. I probably have him a few places under-ranked here, but he would still be in my Tier 4 - need to round out their game category. Most have him going off in the draft anywhere from late 2nd round to 4th round, which IMO is elevated due to his immediate value as a returner. As a runner and returner, he does have very good speed and great patience, vision and quicks. But for fantasy relevance without return yardage, IMO he's got to be lower.But regarding the assertion that he likes to bounce outside, here are excerpts from some scouting reports I have collected. Like I said, I’ve put a lot of effort into ’reconciling’ contradictory reports. (I have more that are essentially similar, and there is a huge consensus of opinion here). I’ve also watched his highlight video and observed that he likes to bounce plays outside.

But here’s excerpts from some sources:

ProDraftCentral: Another one of my top sleepers in this draft, I’ve been high on Todman for months. He is a very shifty runner out of the backfield and can easily make defenders miss. What I really like about him is his ability to make the most out of each run. Unlike the top running back in this class, LeShoure, he recognizes when and when not to go for the big play, if that makes sense. Like Locke, he is a bit under-sized, but packs more of a punch than Locke does. He has above-average speed, but great quickness. He has very good vision and makes quick decisions when running the ball. He was one of the premier running backs in the country this past season, and did all of his damage on a very mediocre UConn team. He does need to improve between the tackles. He swings all of his runs outside, which is fine, but he needs to prove he has the power to be an inside runner as well.

TheNationalFootballReport: Scouts don’t deny Todman has talent. Questions remain about his toughness and if he can take a pounding at the pro level. He certainly has outside running ability but is questionable between the tackles. Will not break alot of tackles. Doesn’t seem to like contact and too often runs out of bounds. Will need to vastly improve his blocking.

We believe Todman will offer value to a team as a change of pace back and will come off the board in the late 3rd to early 4th round of the 2011 NFL draft.

The 3-4.com: Doesn’t finish runs like you want to see. Lacks the ability to break a lot of tackles. Will unnecessarily bounce runs to the outside. He has a small frame, but as evidenced by Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew, it is still possible to be a successful 3 down tailback and be shorter than 5’9. Toddman needs to bulk up, and add girth to his lower half. His slight lower body seems to be the reason for his lack of break tackle ability.

Draft101.com: Extremely thin legs for a running back. Runs hard between the tackles despite size [but] will never be known for his power. Needs to improve as a pass blocker especially blitz pickups.

SidelineScouting.com: Needs to add bulk... Not a great runner between the tackles, likes to bounce everything to the outside... Pass blocking ability is limited, lunges at defenders, doesn't have the size to be very effective as a blocker... Missed one game in 2010 due to an arm injury... Likely nothing more than a situational back at the NFL level... Can get pushed backwards by defenders, has trouble getting extra yards when larger players get a hold of him.

From everything I've seen and read, I think my capsule description is pretty accurate. Obviously the phrases "swings all of his runs outside" and "likes to bounce everything outside" are not absolutes but reflect his general tendencies.

He may add bulk and develop into more, but right now I see him only as a change-of-pace back and kick returner. Although he is a very talented runner, his pass blocking at this stage won't get him onto the field enough as a 3rd down back to pay significant fantasy dividends very soon. But if you are willing to wait, hopefully he adds bulk (but adding bulk to genetically skinny legs is hard weight to add) and improves his pass blocking. If so, at some point, Todman just might be a guy with major upside.

Good postingHowever, how dare you bring sources and facts in to an argument.

information is only as good as its source. Those sites are not legit scouting sites, they are tiny no traffic websites who as a previous poster stated probably just copy off each other.Even watching the youtube clips, which i just watched as i'm basing my read off of the games i've seen him in, there is no evidence that he "bounces everything outside"

There are quite a few plays Uconn calls for him to take it to the outside, and he does what he is supposed to and runs it outside.

There are quite a few plays they call for him to run between the tackles, and on those plays he runs it between the tackles.

And lastly, there are plays where he has the option to run it outside or cut back into the middle of the field, and when cutting it back is a better option he does it.

He is not "strong" between the tackles is the sense that he is going to grind it 25 times a game up the gut, but he is very effective between the tackles due to his vision in traffic and ability to squeeze through small openings.

 

[Hoosier16]

information is only as good as its source. Those sites are not legit scouting sites, they are tiny no traffic websites who as a previous poster stated probably just copy off each other.Even watching the youtube clips, which i just watched as i'm basing my read off of the games i've seen him in, there is no evidence that he "bounces everything outside"There are quite a few plays Uconn calls for him to take it to the outside, and he does what he is supposed to and runs it outside.There are quite a few plays they call for him to run between the tackles, and on those plays he runs it between the tackles.And lastly, there are plays where he has the option to run it outside or cut back into the middle of the field, and when cutting it back is a better option he does it.He is not "strong" between the tackles is the sense that he is going to grind it 25 times a game up the gut, but he is very effective between the tackles due to his vision in traffic and ability to squeeze through small openings.

I'm curious what you thought about his Fiesta bowl performance. That's the only time I saw him this year and was unimpressed. It looked like he went down pretty easy.

 

[EBF]

19. Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon St (5‘6“ 196# 4.45 4.64) - ....He’s just a slightly bigger version of Dexter McCluster, but he lacks both McCluster's quickness and his speed.

Sorry, but this is WAY off target. Quizz and McCluster don't have much in common at all. McCluster was a RB/WR tweener whose career high in carries during four seasons at Ole Miss was 181. Quizz was a full-time RB who averaged 260+ carries every year.Physically, they are almost polar opposites. McCluster is rail thin at 5'8.6" 172 pounds (BMI = 25.7). Quizz is an absolute rock at 5'5.7" 196 pounds (BMI = 31.9).

Saying Quizz is just a slightly bigger version of Dexter McCluster is kind of like saying David Boston is just a slightly bigger version of Todd Pinkston. Seriously. Don't confuse similar height for similar size and playing style. One guy is a gazelle. The other is a rhino.

 

[moderated]

information is only as good as its source. Those sites are not legit scouting sites, they are tiny no traffic websites who as a previous poster stated probably just copy off each other.Even watching the youtube clips, which i just watched as i'm basing my read off of the games i've seen him in, there is no evidence that he "bounces everything outside"There are quite a few plays Uconn calls for him to take it to the outside, and he does what he is supposed to and runs it outside.There are quite a few plays they call for him to run between the tackles, and on those plays he runs it between the tackles.And lastly, there are plays where he has the option to run it outside or cut back into the middle of the field, and when cutting it back is a better option he does it.He is not "strong" between the tackles is the sense that he is going to grind it 25 times a game up the gut, but he is very effective between the tackles due to his vision in traffic and ability to squeeze through small openings.

I'm curious what you thought about his Fiesta bowl performance. That's the only time I saw him this year and was unimpressed. It looked like he went down pretty easy.

considering the situation i think he did as well as anyone could have in this RB draft class.Oklahoma's d-line outclassed uconn's oline by a lot and Todman was the only thing working at all and oklahoma knew it. There was really never any openings for him yet he got what was there. he isn't going to bowl defenses over but give him a crease and he'll find it, unfortunately those were few and far between in this game due to the mis-match.He still had around 4 ypc and a ton of carries against a team who knew he was coming at them play after play.I think a lot of people are judging Todman on this one game and that can cloud ones opinion as it doesn't really give a good representation of what he can do. Give any RB a lopsided matchup and they aren't going to look great, that is why i think at minimum one needs to watch 3 games of a player to get a somewhat well rounded opinion on them.I saw him in 4 games this year and feel he can become a very solid RB at the next level. He isn't a banger but can do everything well inside and outside plus he can be developed into a good receiving back. His blocking needs some work but what rb coming out of college doesn't need to improve in that area.in the games where uconn outclassed the other team he was outstanding and looked like a superstar, but he shouldn't only be judged on those games just as he shouldn't be judged on just the okla game.He carried the ball 334 times on the year, were not talking about some scat back that many are implying he is.

 

[moderated]

19. Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon St (5‘6“ 196# 4.45 4.64) - ....He’s just a slightly bigger version of Dexter McCluster, but he lacks both McCluster's quickness and his speed.

Sorry, but this is WAY off target. Quizz and McCluster don't have much in common at all. McCluster was a RB/WR tweener whose career high in carries during four seasons at Ole Miss was 181. Quizz was a full-time RB who averaged 260+ carries every year.Physically, they are almost polar opposites. McCluster is rail thin at 5'8.6" 172 pounds (BMI = 25.7). Quizz is an absolute rock at 5'5.7" 196 pounds (BMI = 31.9).

Saying Quizz is just a slightly bigger version of Dexter McCluster is kind of like saying David Boston is just a slightly bigger version of Todd Pinkston. Seriously. Don't confuse similar height for similar size and playing style. One guy is a gazelle. The other is a rhino.

a lot of these descriptions madd futher posted just aren't making much sense to me.

I enjoy the writeup so please don't take this the wrong way, but are your statements based on what you've seen or are they a summary of reports that you've read off these other sites that you posted earlier (which weren't legitimate sites at all and were more small time personal blogs).

The McCluster/Quizz comparison was probably the most off the wall but there were a few others that were very odd as well.

 

[mcintyre1]

This is the most up-to-date highlight video I've found for Helu. It has a mixture of 2008-2010, but not a lot from any one season. I'm finishing up my own Helu highlight video but it'll probably be a few days. Right now I've got 2008 and 2009 covered, but I didn't have a lot of video from that time period.

 

[madd futher]

Moderated, I’m not sure I understand your real point? I already told you my methodology here, which is the best I can do with what I have to work with. And I really believe that capsule descriptors are much better than just posting rankings with only player names. Most of the time those capsule descriptors are accurate enough.

Yes, I do know that some of these type of sites “borrow” from other ones, but more often I’ve seen where one or two say one thing and others say the exact opposite about, for example, a player’s blocking ability. At that point, I try to figure out which is right (you seldom see them block on YouTube). But your point about all of these internet sites being low-traffic, illegitimate scouting sites is weak. Obviously, these guys who run these sites are football junkies whose reputation depends on caring enough about football to make a decent effort to get it right most of the time.

You seem to have taken that one sentence in the capsule descriptor about breaking everything outside and run with it. Could it be totally wrong? Very unlikely - I’ve seen him do it on video. Is it a tendancy? Is it a habit? Frankly I don’t know. Regardless, I’m really not all that concerned about “breaking everything to the outside”. I DO know that J Charles and McCoy had that as a habit and radically changed their running style in the pros to become stud RBs.

My concern with Todman has more to do with his blocking. Again, all of these sites could be wrong or have parroted each other. I don’t believe that. And poor blocking by a smallish light-framed RB (yes, I did observe his skinny legs in YouTube videos) will not get him on the field as a 3rd down back.

Is your point that I’ve got him way too low for fantasy purposes? If so, where does he belong? IMHO he obviously does not fit my criteria for tiers 1 and 2. I also believe that guys like Carter, Powell, and Green, while perhaps less gifted as a pure runners, are bigger, more well rounded, and more pro-ready to contribute overall than Todman is.

But hey, I could be wrong. This is phase 2 of a four phase evaluation. If he gets drafted into a great situation and if he blows up OTAs (assuming we have them) and has a camp and pre-season with raves about both his running and his blocking, I’ll be happy to move him up on my final rankings - right AFTER I draft him in my rookie dynasty draft.

 

[EBF]

As for the rest of the list, there are some things I agree with and some that I don't. My thoughts on some of these guys post-combine:

Mark Ingram - Disappointing marks in the drills, but not necessarily a death sentence. I would say Cedric Benson and Frank Gore provide pretty compelling "best case scenarios" for Ingram as franchise backs who have succeeded in the NFL despite miserable workout numbers. He's a little bit lighter than I'd hoped and his speed is nothing special at all, but his overall size/skill package still has me thinking that the Cincinnati version of Benson is his floor.

DeMarco Murray - After a good Senior Bowl week and a pretty strong combine, do I finally have to admit that Murray is for real? Of course not. Murray ran really fast in the 40 and jumped out of the gym in the standing broad jump. However, he checked in on the light side at 5'11.5" 213 (BMI = 29.3) and only managed 34.5" inches in the vertical jump (which generally reflects leg strength/power). These results suggest the same things as the game film: that Murray is a vertically explosive athlete who lacks conventional RB bulk and power. He always stunk up the joint every time I watched him play at OU. Sure, he's athletic with a good fast twitch, but he's just not much of a pure runner. Some people will see Jamaal Charles here. I think he's more like Jerious Norwood or Michael Bennett.

Delone Carter - The stud of the combine showed why he has been one of my favorite RB sleepers over the past two seasons. Carter is an absolute specimen at 5'9" 222 with 4.5 speed a 37" vert and a respectable broad jump to go along with a couple seasons of solid production in a BCS conference. He's a compelling sleeper as a mid-round NFL draft pick and a late 1st-middle 2nd round rookie pick in FF drafts.

Mikel Leshoure - Didn't do anything to hurt himself and while I agree that he's not on the same level as Mendenhall, his overall combination of physical talent and demonstrated production should see him drafted somewhere in the early-mid 2nd round of the NFL draft.

Ryan Williams - Don't quite know what to make of this guy. Some people compare him to DeAngelo, but he's not that strong and his stopwatch speed was disappointing. I like that he's explosive with a good quick twitch and some impressive marks in the jumps. However, he never really looked the part of a franchise back to me in college and I don't think I'd feel too confident picking him where he'll go in drafts. He has a little bit of Donald Brown in him, but I'm optimistic enough to find a spot for him in the top 5 of this year's RBs.

Dion Lewis/Jacquizz Rodgers - I'm less worried about their measured size and more worried about the pedestrian numbers that they put forth in the drills. Neither one of them ran fast or jumped particularly well. On the other hand, recent years have demonstrated that backs of this variety can be successful. People said Ray Rice, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Maurice Drew were undersized. Those people were wrong. There is a huge difference between being short and being small. Quizz and Lewis are most certainly short, but they are not undersized. At 196 and 193 pounds respectively, both guys have BMI scores that are roughly on par with the prototypical NFL featured back. They are actually "bigger" than Rice and Bradshaw. Neither Lewis nor Rodgers is going to be an early draft pick, but I think both are capable of contributing. I rate Lewis a little bit higher and believe that he could become a Bradshaw type of player down the road.

 

[madd futher]

Good to know that I'm not the only one who loves me some Delone Carter!

 

[moderated]

agree delone carter is intriguing. don't know much about him though.

Demarco Murray may have all the measurables but his issue is that he really isn't a RB. He lacks the vision and instincts that a RB needs. He can become a nice weapon for an NFL team but more in a hybrid role for a team that utilizes his receiving skills. I just can't see him being a RB who gets more then 180 carries in a season, but he could be the type who gets 100-150 carries with 50-70 receptions.

Kendall Hunter and Shane Vereen are another couple backs in the 2nd tier of this class who seem to have all the tools needed to succeed in the NFL.

 

[Hoosier16]

Oklahoma's d-line outclassed uconn's oline by a lot and Todman was the only thing working at all and oklahoma knew it. There was really never any openings for him yet he got what was there. he isn't going to bowl defenses over but give him a crease and he'll find it, unfortunately those were few and far between in this game due to the mis-match.

I kind of assumed that as well when I was watching the game. But after looking into it a little more, it may not be as lopsided as you think. UConn may have more pro quality players on its OLine than Oklahoma has on its DLine. Using DraftScout as a reference, UConn has 3 guys expected to be drafted in this or next year's draft. Oklahoma has 1 on its DL.UConn2011 - #8 - OG - Zach Hurd2012 - #5 - OT - Mike Ryan2012 - #5 -- C -- Moe PetrusOklahoma2012 - #10 - DE - Frank AlexanderI wish I would have wathced some other games. He just didn't jump out in that one.

 

[Tick]

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[joey]

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[Kimbo Slice]

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[Thomsen]

I think this scouting report of Todman is pretty accurate, from nationalfootballpost.com

"A shorter, undersized back who lacks ideal size, but has better overall girth through his base and thighs than his frame would indicate. Runs with good forward lean, keeps his pad level down, doesn't give defenders much of an area to hit and plays a lot more physical than his frame would indicate. Isn't afraid to dish out some violence into contact, will run with leverage, pump his legs and can push defenders backward on contact when they meet in the hole. Exhibits solid vision and a good initial burst when asked to press the hole. Is patient waiting for blocks to set up inside, is able to fit his way through small creases inside and really accelerates quickly into the open field. Has a bit of a second gear to his game and can create toward daylight. Isn't overly explosive or dynamic, but has enough wiggle and burst to his game to create in space. Displays the speed to consistently reach the corner and runs with good footwork and balance, has the fluidity in his hips to cleanly side step defenders as a cutback runner and has some wiggle to his game inside as well. Isn't overly shifty, but has enough to make a man miss, keep his balance and accelerate into daylight.

Isn't overly physical and at times can be wrapped up easily around his lower half. Displays a willingness to block out of the backfield, but again isn't overly physical and will have a tough time sticking through contact. Showcases a natural feel in the pass game and displays slightly above-average hands out of the backfield.

Impression: Does everything well, but just lacks the kind of size to be a consistent every-down back in the NFL. Runs with good forward lean, has a feel inside, some wiggle and runs bigger then he is. Looks like a very solid rotational back at the next level who will run hard and give you a solid day's work every week."

In my opinion his floor is as a rotational back, but he could easily become a feature back somewhere. I don't agree his size is that big of a problem.

 

[Thomsen]

Ryan Williams is my favourite back in the draft. As mentioned by Waldmann in latest Audible, the injury he had in 2010 forced him to play in different way. He showed more maturity in his running and became more of a grinder than a homerun threat through 2010. If he is healthy, he has plenty of ability to become a feature back. Sportingnews.com has him ranked as their number one RB (not sure these are Russ Lande's rankings, but if they are we should take notice). He is very young, and if he can overcome some durability issues he will IMO be better than any back in this class.

He could be the steal of the draft both in reality and fantasy.

Scouting report from sportingnews.com:

http://warroom.sportingnews.com/nfl/draft/2011/players/10159.html

 

[JAA]

How on earth could you be missing Noel Devine. He will be within the top 20, maybe top 15 RBs taken

 

[WVU Alum]

How on earth could you be missing Noel Devine. He will be within the top 20, maybe top 15 RBs taken

I love me some Noel, but I am not delusional (mostly). I think he could do very well somewhere but he will never be a feature back. I will still snag him in every draft I have, but my expectation is that he will be a productive and important part of an offense. I don't think he will ever put up strong FF numbers.

 

[domvin]

How on earth could you be missing Noel Devine. He will be within the top 20, maybe top 15 RBs taken

at 5'7", 160, he's easy to miss.Great speed, but nothing more than a 3rd down back with questionable blocking, and questionable ball skills.

 

[Concept Coop]

How on earth could you be missing Noel Devine. He will be within the top 20, maybe top 15 RBs taken

at 5'7", 160, he's easy to miss.Great speed, but nothing more than a 3rd down back with questionable blocking, and questionable ball skills.

179lbs and he benched 225 3x more than Mark Ingram.Look at what NE did with Woodhead and it becomes very easy to see Devine having a solid role in the NFL.

 

[madd futher]

How on earth could you be missing Noel Devine. He will be within the top 20, maybe top 15 RBs taken

at 5'7", 160, he's easy to miss.Great speed, but nothing more than a 3rd down back with questionable blocking, and questionable ball skills.

179lbs and he benched 225 3x more than Mark Ingram.Look at what NE did with Woodhead and it becomes very easy to see Devine having a solid role in the NFL.

I know there was another thread about Noel Devine, so I won't belabor this. I did not miss him - I just don't see a fantasy relevant RB here. I don't know what he weighed at the end of his college season, but I do know what he weighed at the Senior Bowl vs his Combine weight. Yes you might be able to put on almost 20# in 3 weeks, but why was he so light then? And exactly how did he put it on? Sorry, but IMO, something is wrong here. During an NFL season many players wear down and lose weight. I'd be afraid of that.So he just didn't make my top 20 for fantasy purposes (he was in the top 25). You might take a chance on him in the 3rd round of your rookie draft, but I'll pass. IMO Woodhead is his absolute ceiling, and that would be very optimistic.

 

[moderated]

How on earth could you be missing Noel Devine. He will be within the top 20, maybe top 15 RBs taken

at 5'7", 160, he's easy to miss.Great speed, but nothing more than a 3rd down back with questionable blocking, and questionable ball skills.

179lbs and he benched 225 3x more than Mark Ingram.Look at what NE did with Woodhead and it becomes very easy to see Devine having a solid role in the NFL.

I know there was another thread about Noel Devine, so I won't belabor this. I did not miss him - I just don't see a fantasy relevant RB here. I don't know what he weighed at the end of his college season, but I do know what he weighed at the Senior Bowl vs his Combine weight. Yes you might be able to put on almost 20# in 3 weeks, but why was he so light then? And exactly how did he put it on? Sorry, but IMO, something is wrong here. During an NFL season many players wear down and lose weight. I'd be afraid of that.So he just didn't make my top 20 for fantasy purposes (he was in the top 25). You might take a chance on him in the 3rd round of your rookie draft, but I'll pass. IMO Woodhead is his absolute ceiling, and that would be very optimistic.

Agree with this. He might be relevant as an NFL player but for fantasy football purposes i just don't see how he is going to be usable.

 

[Concept Coop]

How on earth could you be missing Noel Devine. He will be within the top 20, maybe top 15 RBs taken

at 5'7", 160, he's easy to miss.Great speed, but nothing more than a 3rd down back with questionable blocking, and questionable ball skills.

179lbs and he benched 225 3x more than Mark Ingram.Look at what NE did with Woodhead and it becomes very easy to see Devine having a solid role in the NFL.

I know there was another thread about Noel Devine, so I won't belabor this. I did not miss him - I just don't see a fantasy relevant RB here. I don't know what he weighed at the end of his college season, but I do know what he weighed at the Senior Bowl vs his Combine weight. Yes you might be able to put on almost 20# in 3 weeks, but why was he so light then? And exactly how did he put it on? Sorry, but IMO, something is wrong here. During an NFL season many players wear down and lose weight. I'd be afraid of that.So he just didn't make my top 20 for fantasy purposes (he was in the top 25). You might take a chance on him in the 3rd round of your rookie draft, but I'll pass. IMO Woodhead is his absolute ceiling, and that would be very optimistic.

There was an article written re: his weight. If you are interested, the information is out there. He claims he was light due to an injury.We will find out how he carries the weight at his combine when he runs the 40, cone, et cetera.

As for the Woodhead comment: that is silly. If you don't think he is top 20--fine. Cool. If you don't think he will end up being as good--again, cool. But saying Woodhead is his ceiling is, again, silly. He is a much better athlete, he is faster, and has much more potential than Woodhead did at this point in his career. Devine did it at WVU; Woodhead at a small school.

 

[thriftyrocker]

As for the Woodhead comment: that is silly. If you don't think he is top 20--fine. Cool. If you don't think he will end up being as good--again, cool. But saying Woodhead is his ceiling is, again, silly. He is a much better athlete, he is faster, and has much more potential than Woodhead did at this point in his career. Devine did it at WVU; Woodhead at a small school.

Don't think we know that yet. Woodhead is pretty fast. His 40 time was better than all the guys that ran this year. Don't discount Woodhead.

 

[madd futher]

In your initial post you stated you have done this at some other sources in the past. Is there any way of seeing what your rankings were of the past few years? I would be interested in seeing how your track record looks for rankings. Nice job.

Your question got me thinking. Just for fun, I looked back at my last year's post-combine, but pre-draft rankings I did on March 2, 2010:1. Spiller, Clemson2. Matthews, Fresno State3. Gerhart, Stanford4. Dwyre, Georgia Tech - I wasn't the only one who was high on him before the draft.5. Hardesty - Tennessee6. Best, Cal - I had significant conerns about his concussions at this time last year. When he checked out and got drafted high by Detroit, I moved him up in my rankings. I traded up to take him at 1.03 in my rookie draft after Matthews and Bryant were taken.7. McCluster, Mississippi8. A Dixon, Miss. State9. B Tate, Auburn 10. McKnight, USC11. Starks, Buffalo12. Joique Bell, Wayne State13. Nance, AZ State14. Blount, Oregon15. Paschall, N Dakota State16. Stafan Johnson, USC17. Toston, OK State18. Steele, Memphis19. L Miller20. Lindsay, E Carolina2010 Rushing Results (Regular Season only - doesn't include recepts):Running Back Rk Player Team Pos Att Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD Lng 1st 1st% 20+ 40+ FUM 1 LeGarrette Blount TB RB 201 15.5 1,007 5.0 77.5 6 53 38 18.9 10 3 3 2 Chris Ivory NO RB 137 11.4 716 5.2 59.7 5 55T 44 32.1 5 1 4 3 Ryan Mathews SD RB 158 13.2 678 4.3 56.5 7 31T 25 15.8 4 0 4 4 Jahvid Best DET RB 171 10.7 555 3.2 34.7 4 45 25 14.6 3 1 1 5 Toby Gerhart MIN RB 81 5.4 322 4.0 21.5 1 21 13 16.0 1 0 1 6 C.J. Spiller BUF RB 74 5.3 283 3.8 20.2 0 20 10 13.5 1 0 2 7 Keiland Williams WAS RB 65 4.3 261 4.0 17.4 3 32T 14 21.5 2 0 0 8 Anthony Dixon SF RB 70 4.4 237 3.4 14.8 2 34 11 15.7 1 0 0 9 Joe McKnight NYJ RB 39 4.3 189 4.8 21.0 0 18 7 17.9 0 0 0 10 Deji Karim JAC RB 35 3.2 160 4.6 14.5 0 15 8 22.9 0 0 1 11 Javarris James IND RB 46 4.6 112 2.4 11.2 6 11 9 19.6 0 0 0 12 James Starks GB RB 29 9.7 101 3.5 33.7 0 16 5 17.2 0 0 0 13 Dimitri Nance GB RB 36 3.0 95 2.6 7.9 0 11 4 11.1 0 0 0 14 Keith Toston STL RB 19 1.2 54 2.8 3.4 0 10 2 10.5 0 0 0 15 Jonathan Dwyer PIT RB 9 9.0 28 3.1 28.0 0 7 0 0.0 0 0 0 There were a lot of significant injuries last year, and one year obviously does not make a RB's career. But given that this was only stage two (pre-draft) of a four stage process, I didn't expect to see I did even this good.But I never saw Chris Ivory coming. Did you?

 

[rabidfireweasel]

As for the Woodhead comment: that is silly. If you don't think he is top 20--fine. Cool. If you don't think he will end up being as good--again, cool. But saying Woodhead is his ceiling is, again, silly. He is a much better athlete, he is faster, and has much more potential than Woodhead did at this point in his career. Devine did it at WVU; Woodhead at a small school.

Woodhead just put up a 925 total yard season with 6 tds in fourteen games. That is about 1050 and 7 over sixteen games. That is a very respectable season. I don't think it silly to say that is ceiling of Devine at all. How much different would you say his ceiling is?