Note: The Bloom 100 is written with deep PPR full IDP leagues in mind.
1. Mark Ingram, RB, NO - I wrestled with this all weekend, but Ingram landing on a team that wanted him bad enough to give up next year's first and a second that just happens to also have one of the best offenses in the league was too compelling to put anywhere but #1. Burn up the phone lines to get 1.2 or 1.3 if he falls there. Don't be surprised if he crashes the elite perennial top 10 RB tier by the end of the season.
2. A.J. Green, WR, CIN - Andy Dalton might not strike fear into the hearts of defensive backs, but he is a smart QB, and a smart QB will lean on a talent like Green. Green's rare constellation of physical gifts and killer instincts is rare enough to merit the nod over Jones at #2.
3. Julio Jones, WR, ATL - I would feel really good about walking away from this draft with Jones at 1.3, the pick is certainly worth more than it was last week in the wake of the Falcons big move to bag Jones. He could easily become the Boldin to White's Fitzgerald, but Jones is not on the same level as Green as a natural #1 receiver and I just can't bring myself to rank him above Green.
4. Ryan Williams, RB, ARI - It is a little inconvenient in the short term that Beanie Wells is only going to be 23 when the season starts, but Williams is good enough to decisively take over this RB job as soon as Wells suffers another debilitating minor injury. Toss out offers for the 1.4 to see its owner fears Wells having a DeAngelo Williams-like resurgence. Even if it does happen, would you regret taking Jonathan Stewart right now?
5. Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA - Honestly, Thomas is 5A and Little is 5B. Need and the relative scarcity and value of RB vs WR dictates which player to target at five. Thomas is good enough to excel in Miami and you have to love that he arrives with a potential stud interior offensive lineman in Mike Pouncey. Thomas gets the nod only because I like the immediate potential of Miami's running game more than Cleveland's passing game.
6. Greg Little, WR, CLE - Like Dalton, Colt McCoy might have a popgun arm, but he is smart and he will be drawn in by the gravitational pull of the receiver whose angry style when the ball is the air and after the catch is on the Boston/Boldin/Marshall axis. He's a very good return on the fifth or sixth pick and you should attempt to trade up for Little if he falls past 6.
7. Mikel LeShoure, RB, DET - LeShoure's destination was disappointing enough to drop him three spots from the pre-draft version. I can't justify putting a talent of his magnitude lower than this, but I get the feeling that he'll fall past seven in some drafts.
8. Randall Cobb, WR, GB - You know the way the draft sorted itself out helped folks holding mid firsts when Cobb falls two spots from his pre-draft ranking despite landing in Green Bay. Finley and Jennings might keep him from ever cracking the top 15-20 at WR, but Cobb will be a productive every-week fantasy starter in time and he's a good get in the late first. Can't blame you for taking him at 7, especially in leagues that start 3+ WR.
9. Shane Vereen, RB, NE - Don't overthink this. Vereen is more than good enough to excel in New England and the team clearly coveted his skills. None of the other backs on the roster are at his talent level. Here is your target if you are holding a late first and you aren't sure which way to go. I know I will feel like I got away with something when I land Vereen. Could end up being the best value in rookie drafts this year.
10. Vincent Brown, WR, SD - Precise technician who landed on a team with an elite QB and opportunity at WR - what more can you ask for? Another coup for holders of late firsts who weren't sure which direction to go in rookie drafts. Another terrific trade-up target if he starts to fall. As good a value as Vereen in leagues that start 3+ WR.
11. Kendall Hunter, RB, SF - Hunter's fall was not unexpected and he ended up in a long-term situation that he could inherit as early as next year. If you're holding 1.11 and the folks ahead of you nail my top 10, Hunter is a terrific consolation prize. He might end up in a committee with Anthony Dixon, but he'll be the Bradshaw to Dixon's Jacobs.
12. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, ATL - Almost a carbon copy of Hunter in terms of situation, but in a better offense. You also have to love that the Falcons traded up for him. I will sweat bullets trying to trade up for Rodgers when he starts falling into the second round of my rookie drafts.
13. Cam Newton, QB, CAR - I won't be disappointed at all if I end up with Newton as the return on an early second, and I won't be disappointed if a QB needy team reaches for him in the first. Haters are gonna hate, so Newton is a good speculative trade-up target if he falls past 15 or so in 14 or 16 team leagues.
14. Greg Salas, WR, STL - Austin Pettis went earlier in the draft to the Rams, but Salas is the St. Louis rookie wide receiver I want. I see Salas becoming Sam Bradford's Welker/Collie at best, Lance Moore at worst. Pray he falls to you in the late second.
15. Delone Carter, RB, IND - Carter is a thoroughly average talent, but Joseph Addai on the decline even if he does return in free agency and Donald Brown has done little to inspire confidence in his abilities to seize the job. A Pierre Thomas/Tashard Choice type back who should get a better early-career opportunity to break out than that pair.
16. Jon Baldwin, WR, KC - Kansas City went strong to the hole for Baldwin, he has the big play profile, and the #1 on his team could leave in free agency, but there's something that still doesn't sit right when I think about Baldwin as a first-round rookie pick. Matt Cassel isn't the kind of QB to really use a jumpball talent who can do his best damage on plays the QB extends, and Baldwin is a character risk and played who declined the year before the draft. I'll be pleased to see him picked ahead of me if I am holding an early second, and positively thrilled if I am holding a late first.
17. Demarco Murray, RB, DAL - I see a poor man's Matt Forte in Murray, and I don't think that will be good enough to marginalize Felix Jones or convince the Cowboys that they can rely mainly on Murray after Jones contract is up in the 2013 season. Still a solid use of a second round pick, but I'm not excited about his future.
18. Bilal Powell, RB, NYJ - Powell's situation might look less than promising because of Shonn Greene and Joe McKnight, but I'm not on either's bandwagon. Let's not underrate the importance of an RB landing on a team that runs the ball well. I expect to have Powell on a lot of my teams after the rookie draft.
19. Torrey Smith, WR, BAL - I wasn't totally sold on Smith coming into the draft, but you have to like his landing spot. I'll begrudgingly take him based on opportunity if none of my targets fall to my mid-to-late second round picks.
20. Edmond Gates, WR, MIA - The Dolphins curiously neglected the QB position, but they did the right thing and snagged Gates on the third day of the draft. He'll get open deep with Brandon Marshall drawing a lot attention and he'll be their best receiver if Marshall implodes. The main issue here is the chance that Miami is about to enter a stretch of wasteland in the passing game, but Gates raw talent still justifies a pick in the second.
21. Taiwan Jones, RB, OAK - Jones fell to the fourth round, but he landed in an organization that struck gold with a ridiculously fast player in the fourth last year. Darren McFadden blossomed into an elite RB in this offense last year. Even with very limited touches, Jones could end up being one of the blue chip RBs from this rookie draft with a few explosive plays that suggest that he's the next Jamaal Charles. A highly speculative play that could pay off quicker than most expect.
22. Lance Kendricks, TE, STL - McDaniels has a reputation for neglecting the tight end, but his fingerprints are all over this pick. Bradford is an obvious QB on the rise and he could bring Kendricks with him. He's not the most physically talented TE in this class, but he is a natural pass catcher and Kendricks is ticketed for a good opportunity.
23. Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN - I don't love Rudolph's destination, but he is coming in with a rookie QB that he could develop a very nice relationship with over time. I don't see the upside for Rudolph to ever be higher than the 8th or 10th best fantasy TE, but he has a high floor that makes him worth a second.
24. Nate Irving, LB, DEN - I loved Irving's seek and destroy game at NC State, and if the Broncos believe in his ability to get all the way back from a nearly fatal car accident enough to take him in the third, so do I - as the #1 IDP off the board even. He has a chance to seize the middle linebacker job from day one in Denver.
25. Blaine Gabbert, QB, JAX - Gabbert is a fine developmental QB pick in late second, but I don't see explosive potential in the Jags passing game right now. The offensive philosophy could change because of Gabbert's different skillset, but they don't have the targets to make a lot of noise anyway. Target Newton if you need a QB instead.
26. Leonard Hankerson, WR, WAS - Sometimes putting out the pre-draft 100 gives me the clarity to realize that I overrated a player that I don't really like in deference to the conventional wisdom. Hankerson is the best example of that this year. While his situation looks good because of opportunity on the surface, it doesn't look good to me on closer examination. Hankerson is the kind of WR who can make hay against lesser corners in single coverage, but he needs a strong #1 and good risk-taking QB to do that. Washington has neither. Think Mo Massaquoi. I'll be pleased when he goes off the board.
27. Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF - Kaepernick will be given every chance to succeed with a coach who made Josh Johnson an FCS legend of mythic proportions at San Diego. I don't strong believe in Kaepernick or his game, but he has fantasy upside as a dual threat and a coach who oversaw the construction of next year's number overall pick.
28. Jake Locker, QB, TEN - I have to admit I'm intrigued by Tennessee's commitment to Locker and the potential of having Kenny Britt and Jared Cook to throw to and Chris Johnson to distract defensive coordinators. He's a terrific "what the heck" pick in the third.
29. Bruce Carter, LB, DAL - Carter's value skyrocketed when the Cowboys selected him in the early second to likely play inside next to Sean Lee in the long term. He will get some outside pass rush and inside blitz opportunities, and Carter's explosive game makes him an even better pick in sack-heavy and big play leagues.
30. Robert Quinn, DE, STL - The elite DE tier is very thin, and Quinn absolutely has the talent to crash it in short order. I wouldn't blame folks who took him as the first IDP off the board in the late second. I like what he can do with a head coach who was architect of the dismantling of Tom Brady in the Super Bowl.
31. Titus Young, WR, DET - I'm not a Young believer, but he is landing in a terrific offense. He will be an afterthought for defense and that could give him lots of opportunity to make big plays if his hands and physicality become more consistent.
32. Dion Lewis, RB, PHI - Lewis gives the Eagles another standout Pitt RB and he could probably put up pretty solid numbers in LeSean McCoy's role. He is must draft in the 3rd for McCoy owners and a nice guy to stash away in the 3rd for people who don't own McCoy.
33. Da'Rel Scott, RB, NYG - Scott's opportunity could look a lot better or worse soon depending on what the Giants do with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Regardless, he'll still have a chance to endear himself to an offense that runs the ball effectively - that's worth a late third when a back has the speed Scott flashed as the fastest RB at the combine.
34. Denarius Moore, WR, OAK - Jacoby Ford might have more big plays, but Moore has the all-around game to become the top pass catcher on the Raiders. He may never be more than a WR3 for fantasy, but he is probably the most natural receiver on the Oakland roster.
35. Greg Jones, LB, NYG - It might be strange to see an LB drafted so late this high among IDPs, but that just shows you how shallow the class is this year. I loved Jones at Michigan State and he was a prolific tackler. Steal the Giants next MLB in the late third.
36. Andy Dalton, QB, CIN - There is something intriguing about Dalton coming in with a game-changing receiver and playing for an offensive coordinator that was drooling over him before the draft. Jay Gruden has the potential to make the most out of Dalton's strengths while not exposing his deficiencies. He's a great BPA in the early 4th.
37. Mason Foster, LB, TB - Foster is projected as the Tampa middle linebacker with Barrett Ruud ticketed out of town. I'm not sure I see the range for Foster to flourish and rack up tackles like he did at Washington, but the opportunity is too good to pass up in the
38. Quan Sturdivant, LB, ARI - Sturdivant has the range and smarts to flourish at a position that made Paris Lenon a near LB1 last year. Ignore the late draft slot and pay attention to the skillset and opportunity intersection.
39. Christian Ponder, QB, MIN - Ponder is an injury risk and he doesn't present much fantasy upside in Minnesota. He should still be looked at in the third because backup fantasy QBs are getting harder to come by, and Ponder can easily level off as a solid member of that tier for a while.
40. Ryan Mallett, QB, NE - Mallett isn't very far below his peers who have clear paths to starting jobs because he landed in an organization that has developed QBs well as of late with a strong culture to keep him in line. I expect him to be dealt to another team and start in 2-3 years, and failing that, he could be the heir to Brady.
41. Evan Royster, RB, WAS - If you're going to take a stab at the Redskins backfield, I prefer Royster to Helu. He's a bit more rugged and patient, although he doesn't have Helu's long speed.
42. Alex Green, RB, GB - Someone else will take Green long before I would feel comfortable doing it. He's too straight-linish and certainly no better than James Starks.
43. Jerrel Jernigan, WR, NYG - I see this pick as Sinorice Moss redux, and I don't expect Jernigan to be that much better of a wide receiver. He is a good injury hedge pick in the late third for Steve Smith owners, but I expect him to go long before I would look at him in most drafts.
44. Jamie Harper, RB, TEN - Javon Ringer is put on notice as Harper could be breathing down his neck to backup Chris Johnson very soon. He doesn't have a lot of the qualities of an every-down back, but he is big, fast, and athletic enough to be a quality upside RB to stash away in 4th.
45. Aldon Smith, LB, SF - Smith's stats might not be gaudy outside of sacks because he's a 3-4 OLB, but more and more every-week starting LBs are coming from that role. He is definitely every bit the top 10 talent the 49ers drafted him as.
46. Jonas Mouton, LB, SD - Mouton strikes me as an average talent, but he'll get a chance to start at ILB if his draft status is any indication of how much the Chargers like him. I still think Brandon Siler is a compelling thumper and Donald Butler can't be counted out of this situation, either.
47. Julius Thomas, TE, DEN - Somewhat reminiscent of the Ravens drafting both Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta last year, the Broncos doubled up on TE, which blunts the potential of both Thomas and Virgil Green - although I like Thomas better as a pure upside passcatcher.
48. Jordan Cameron, TE, CLE - Cameron is one of the most naturally athletic passcatchers at TE in this draft class, but it'll take a while to know what you have in him.
49. Rob Housler, TE, ARI - Housler is the probably the most dangerous downfield passcatcher of the third upside development TEs in this tier, but he is also on a team with the worst depth chart at QB in the league.
50. Roy Helu, RB, WAS - The combination of my lack of belief in Torain and Helu's status as the first RB chosen by the Redskins this year makes him worth a flier, but he'll be gone long before this in most drafts - maybe as high as the teens - which makes me happy.
51. Chad Spann, RB, UDFA - Perhaps going undrafted wasn't unexpected for Spann, but it still feels more disappointing that it does in most years, even with the deep RB class making it very explainable. The Colts showed a lot of interest in Spann, so maybe he could come in and push Delone Carter.
52. Terrence Toliver, WR, UDFA - Toliver going undrafted was a bit of head scratcher just because teams seem to value size/speed/athleticism wideouts even when they are inconsistent. I'll still be happy to add him in the late rounds without knowing where he will land.
53. Von Miller, LB, DEN - Miller's fantasy outlook is really unchanged even though he landed in a 4-3 instead of a 3-4. I just don't see the all-around to merit the pick he will go at in most leagues as #2 overall pick in the NFL draft.
54. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, TB - At this point in your rookie draft, you can take a chance on a possibly elite end who will at least give you a roster spot back quickly by flaming out within a year or two physically if the risk factor was too much to overcome.
55. Martez Wilson, LB, NO - Wilson has a pretty clear path to start, but at strong side LB. He could potentially be a low-end LB2 if he hits, but he is far from a sure thing. I'd be inclined to wait for later LBs with more tackle-rich roles in their reach if I am looking for help at the position.
56. Stevan Ridley, RB, NE - I really have to question the Patriots scouts and front office here. Ridley is an average talent that comes a dime a dozen at his position. He could have modest success a la Benjarvus Green-Ellis because of the surrounding offense, but I can't bring myself to take him ahead of vastly superior talents no matter their current situations.
57. Niles Paul, WR, WAS - The Redskins offense briefly gave value to Anthony Armstrong, so an RB-sized deep threat like Paul should have a good chance to make an impact.
58. Tyrod Taylor, QB, BAL - Taylor is a very intriguing QB prospect and he could get a shot if Joe Flacco stagnates in his development or be the kind of QB who develops and gets a chance to start on his second team.
59. Austin Pettis, WR, STL - Pettis reminds me too much of a Justin Gage type who will never be dynamic enough to be more than quality depth in the NFL. Someone else will take the plunge before I would.
60. Tandon Doss, WR, BAL - I'm not the biggest believer in Torrey Smith, but it does hurt Doss to have to come in with another speed receiver. Flacco asked for him, but I would only take him very late in rookie drafts.
61. DJ Williams, TE, GB - Perhaps the Packers wanted to make sure that a situation like the one that unfolded when Jermichael Finley went down and took the Packers receiving threat at TE with him last year would never happen again. Williams can be very productive if Finley gets hurt again, but will be a second fiddle for the foreseeable future. Only really worth stashing in large leagues with deep benches.
62. Ricky Stanzi, QB, KC - I'm not a big fan of Stanzi's game, but I think the Chiefs might start looking beyond Matt Cassel soon. Stanzi could be next in line with a good first year or two with the organization.
63. Virgil Green, TE, DEN - Green might get out into pass patterns as much as or more than Julius Thomas as a "move" TE, but his long-term upside is crippled by Thomas's presence.
64. Nick Fairley, DT, DET - Ndamukong Suh made about as big a splash as a rookie DT can last year. Fairley has the skills to repeat, but might not have the opportunity playing next to a beast like Suh.
65. Noel Devine, RB, UDFA - Hard to believe his gamebreaker abilities went undrafted. He'll find a place in the league.
66. Armon Binns, WR, UDFA - Worth drafting to see if he sticks after camp
67. DeAndre Brown, WR, UDFA - This year's Danario Alexander
68. Johnny White, RB, BUF - Fred Jackson successor?
69. Ron Johnson, WR, SF - Quality #3 WR type
70. Dwayne Harris, WR, DAL - Rugged slot receiver
71. Kelvin Sheppard, LB, BUF - Upside limited by Posluszny, but could eventually start inside
72. Kris Durham, WR, SEA - Seahawks don't have a real #2, but Durham would give them two huge WRs.
73. Jaiquawn Jarrett, S, PHI - Mikell's success, but still hard to justify taking non-elite DBs in rookie drafts.
74. Jordan Todman, RB, SD - Didn't love him going into draft, let someone take this buried so-so speed back
75. Ryan Kerrigan, LB, WAS - Limited upside, but should start right away
76. Brooks Reed, LB, HOU - He's more Mike Vrabel than Clay Matthews
77. Jabaal Sheard, LB, CLE - Anthony Spencer upside
78. Cameron Kenney, WR, UDFA - Be ready to pounce if he signs in a good spot
79. Jeff Maehl, WR, UDFA - see Kenney
80. Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, UDFA - see Kenney II
81. Kris Adams, WR, UDFA - Ups/speed Practice squad material
82. TJ Yates, QB, HOU - Hate sitting on mid-level developmental QBs, but Yates worth it in very deep leagues
83. Greg McElroy, QB, NYJ - Limited upside, but could develop into stash a la Matt Flynn
84. Patrick Peterson, CB, ARI - return yard leagues bump him up at least 20-30 spots
85. Kealoha Pilares, WR, CAR - Davone Bess redux?
86. Quinton Carter, S, DEN - Heir to Dawkins?
87. Akeem Ayers, LB, TEN - Poor man's Julian Peterson
88. Allen Bradford, RB, TB - Could be workmanlike backup to Blount
89. Luke Stocker, TE, TB - Kevin Boss at best
90. Colin McCarthy, LB, TEN - Might get a shot at MLB, but I like Curran a lot better
91. JJ Watt, DE, HOU - 3-4 DEs continue to gain value with more teams running the scheme
92. Ricardo Lockette, WR, UDFA - size/speed practice squad material
93. Jeremy Ross, WR, UDFA - RB after the catch practice squad material
94. Aldrick Robinson, WR, WAS - Anthony Armstrong clone
95. Jerrod Fayson, WR, UDFA - Rugged RAC threat practice squad material
96. Jerrod Johnson, QB, UDFA - Dual threat QB practice squad material
97. Graig Cooper, RB, UDFA - Could make noise if he comes all the way back from knee injury
98. Casey Matthews, LB, PHI - Special teams/depth. Chaney isn't going anywhere
99. Adam Froman, QB, UDFA - Athletic, tough QB practice squad material
100. Derrick Locke, RB, UDFA - Poor man's Sproles
), but a month ago he was a 7th round pick.
Interesting take on Von Miller. Hadn't heard too much of his lack of 3-down play as a likelihood. Is that consensus that he won't be on the field the majority of the time? If so, I completely agree that he will be overdrafted in all IDP leagues.
