If momentum has no predictive power in sports, then the entire $100 billion sports betting industry is a crock
Why did betting odds change drastically during the last day of the recent Ryder Cup?
Only one reason: positive momentum built by the U.S. team and the resulting pressure-related psychological impacts on the performance of all the golfing participants
Nothing tangible whatsoever about the course changed; the players' skills didn't change; the weather didn't change; the pin positions didn't change; the matchups didn't change.
And yet as the U.S. gained momentum and mounted their comeback, thousands of sports bettors (including professionals) were increasingly predicting that the U.S. might win
Momentum during a sporting event affected thousands of financial decisions by sports bettors attempting to predict an outcome. It's not a huge leap to suggest momentum can also play a role in humans making coaching decisions that are attempting to create that outcome.
Was it positive momentum or was it better performance?
We'rent the US odds improving because they literally were closer to winning?
Did momentum affect any decisions or was it just obvious that as the score got closer, if you thought the US team was better to begin with and had just been unlucky for a couple days, you'd assume regression to the mean?
This is my point again. Momentum is ONLY a descriptor of previous events.
Or are you saying "momentum made it so clear they would win, but somehow this incredible power was overcome and reversed by the other team"?
That's why it is so silly. It's just another fallacy. It's a pure storytelling device. It's post hoc. It's adjectival.
ETA: and if you believe in the psychological effect on people, are you saying it only makes the team that's ahead play worse? So there's no chance you think it makes someone lock in more and increase performance? Like if France is coming back on the US everybody gets right, and we are just lucky Steph made some threes? Or did the momentum create pressure that makes Steph shoot better? So was it good that France had momentum or bad?
Again, illustrative of my point. It's not predictive. It's not intelligent to use it to evaluate a decision.