Spartans Rule
Footballguy
I was discussing this with my brother, who started to argue for punting, then thought through the scenarios and said “I guess it comes down to whether you trust your offense or defense… in a 40-38 game.”
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Post here when coaches do something you disagree with (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter GreenNGold
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Man I remember when Belichick went for it in this exact scenario against Manning in a similarly high scoring game years ago and got blasted for not punting.
How times have changed.
Nothing has changed. People will always blast a decision if it doesn't end up working out. Hate when people judge the decision purely by the result.
Ravens go for it there and don't convert and lose, they would be blasted for not punting too.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Yes, there will always be people who criticize a decision with a bad result. But let's not all turn into moral relativists here. The decision to punt was bad process both according to analytics and basic logic (would you rather put your fate in Lamar/Henry getting three yards or your defense stopping Josh Allen?) I, along with plenty of other people in this thread, have been pretty consistent on this point for years now.
Also, I don't claim to know the minds of NFL HCs, but I suspect that fear of being criticized was never, and is not now, the motivating factor when it comes to in-game decisions. I think historically it's been the innate conservatism of coaches ("punting on 4th down is just what you do"). I'm not sure they've gotten any less conservative in recent years, but the ground has shifted into what's considered "acceptable".
Sure but you don't even have to stop Allen if you don;'t convert. They're already in FG range for the game winner. If you don't convert that, you already lose.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
OK first of all, none of that is true. There were two minutes left and the Ravens had at least two timeouts left. If the Bills didn't try to advance the ball, Baltimore would have gotten it back. Also, a 50+ yarder with an ancient kicker who's been on the team for less than a week is hardly a gimme.
But more importantly, are we really still doing the "If they get a bad result, they are less likely to win" thing? Yes, if they fail to convert, their win probability goes down. But if they don't even try to convert, their win probability also goes down. And if they do convert, the game is over.
Hmm, if only there were some way to balance all of the different probabilities and see if there was a decision that did the most to optimize their chances of winning ...
And what did those probabilities show? I believe the probabilities were close, and it didn't take into consideration that Lamar was cramping badly and in a lot of pain at that moment.
Additionally on Harblow....Don't use your last 2 timeouts in a manner where the opposition has 30+ seconds to trot the FG team. Should have let the clock run. By the time Buffalo realized what was going on you could have created choas or used the timeout at 15 seconds which would force Buffalo to kick leaving you 10+ seconds and a timeout for a comeback.
Zow
Footballguy
He was correct at the time. He was just the first coach with the stones to stand by the math.
Zow
Footballguy
While I like Kellen Moore, his clock management decisions at the end of the first half made me scratch my head a bit. Basically, he kept his timeouts in his pocket even after the Cardinals seemed likely to score with ~1 minute left. I am including a brief article about it below. I had the Saints with the points on the game so I was invested and mildly frustrated and confused at the time (as was one of the announcers). As the article suggests, I think Moore was maybe trying to keep Rattler from a stressful situation. Otherwise, his comments seem nonsensical (they didn't get to play it out because they chose to permit for 40 seconds to run off the clock when Arizona was about to score).
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What was going on in the New Orleans Saints' end-of-half sequence against the Arizona Cardinals? The Cardinals offense got down to the New Orleans red zone before a defensive penalty helped them out at the two-minute warning. And first-year head coach Kellen Moore kept his timeouts in his pocket as the Cardinals ran out the clock and inched closer to a go-ahead score.
And when Arizona scored on a 4-yard shovel pass from Kyler Murray to James Conner, leaving just 28 seconds on the clock, Moore settled for a quick Alvin Kamara rush up the middle before letting time expire. The Saints didn't advance past their own 35 yard line. Why did he go into halftime with all three timeouts going to waste?
"We were just trying to save our timeouts best we could. They did a good job of bleeding the clock out and putting themselves in a favorable position. We didn't get enough yards to play it out there at the end of the half," Moore told CBS Sports sideline reporter Tiffany Blackmon before heading to the locker room.
Either this was a rookie coach making a miscalculation, or it was a polite way of saying he didn't trust Spencer Rattler to lead a final-minute drive without turning the ball over. Rattler already got bailed out once in this game with a defensive penalty wiping out an interception. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns last season, too. With the Saints having won the opening coin toss and elected to receive the kick in the second half, this gives them some control over the situation in a one-score game. But it would've been nice to have a real shot at tying it up to play for the win rather than the tie in the third quarter.
This article origina
________________________________________________________________________
What was going on in the New Orleans Saints' end-of-half sequence against the Arizona Cardinals? The Cardinals offense got down to the New Orleans red zone before a defensive penalty helped them out at the two-minute warning. And first-year head coach Kellen Moore kept his timeouts in his pocket as the Cardinals ran out the clock and inched closer to a go-ahead score.
And when Arizona scored on a 4-yard shovel pass from Kyler Murray to James Conner, leaving just 28 seconds on the clock, Moore settled for a quick Alvin Kamara rush up the middle before letting time expire. The Saints didn't advance past their own 35 yard line. Why did he go into halftime with all three timeouts going to waste?
"We were just trying to save our timeouts best we could. They did a good job of bleeding the clock out and putting themselves in a favorable position. We didn't get enough yards to play it out there at the end of the half," Moore told CBS Sports sideline reporter Tiffany Blackmon before heading to the locker room.
Either this was a rookie coach making a miscalculation, or it was a polite way of saying he didn't trust Spencer Rattler to lead a final-minute drive without turning the ball over. Rattler already got bailed out once in this game with a defensive penalty wiping out an interception. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns last season, too. With the Saints having won the opening coin toss and elected to receive the kick in the second half, this gives them some control over the situation in a one-score game. But it would've been nice to have a real shot at tying it up to play for the win rather than the tie in the third quarter.
This article origina
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I posted this previously in the thread: https://x.com/bburkeESPN/status/1964897383541768469
And yes, there are a lot of things that average probabilities don't take into account. They also didn't take into account that Baltimore's D had been on the field for nearly the entire fourth quarter, and had already given up 200+ yards and 3 TDs to Allen in that quarter alone. But what they do tell us is the average, and if the average says that going for it increases your WP% by 8 points, that's a pretty strong presumption that needs to be overcome.
But again, if you don't buy the mathematical argument, feel free to look at it logically and decide if it's smarter to bet on Lamar and Henry gaining two yards or a gassed defense stopping Allen
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Perhaps. Buffalo would have realized pretty quickly what was going on and gotten back to the line and spiked it to the kill the clock (unless the Ravens call TO first).
Situationally, the defense should have been coached to let the Bills score if someone got loose the way Coleman did. Tackling him instead the 10 with 35-40 second left was the wrong move. It is possible he goes down at the 1, but there was still no reason to tackle him in that situation. The Ravens botch situational football waaaay too much under Harbaugh the last few years.
When you add in that your QB is cramping and probably wouldn't be very mobile on the next play, basically even.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Not to disparage Coleman, but something tells me the odds of him going down at the 1 were minimal. I get why the defender's instinct would be to tackle him, especially when he was still that far from the end zone, but yeah, the message in the huddle should have been "Once they get past a certain yard marker, let them score."
Also, someone remind me when Baltimore used its first timeout. I remember thinking in the moment that it was a weird place to call one, but it didn't seem like it would matter. As it turned out, not having the third one was huge
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
But the Bills didn't know that. And the Ravens had timeouts. Take one of them and see if Lamar can shake the cramps, and if not, he can take the snap from the shotgun and pass. The threat of the run would still scare the Bills defense (since they didn't know he was cramping).
Sure, but we don't know how bad his cramps were. Leg cramps can be a *****.
There's all sorts of outcomes here. Should he maybe have taken a timeout and given Lamar an IV? Or came out to try to get them to jump offsides first? Or had Lamar in shotgun? Sure.
My point is it's closer of a call than to be outraged by it. I probably would have gone for it too but it's close.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Yeah, I am not outraged by it, but it just felt like coaching not to win. Cramps can definitely be a *****, so that variable is certainly a factor.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I hadn't heard about the cramps. Did Harbaugh cite that as a factor?
Anyway, I'm not outraged either. I'm actually not even sure it was the worst 4th-down decision of the day (that would be McDonald kicking the FG on 4th and inches from the 19 with three minutes left.) I was mostly just objecting to the idea that you should make decisions based solely on the downside risk as opposed to the full range of probabilities
I’m not an analytic genius but my first and only thought was they have to go for it. We know how this ends when you give the ball back to elite QB’s. Even if I had to put my back up in I would go for it. You could see the looks on the players on the Raven bench. They knew it was game over. I wonder if this has a psychological effect on the defensive players. They probably think the game is over.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Reportedly yes, that factored into his decision.
That said, they have a dude named Henry who i’d be willing to bet on getting 2 yards to win the game 99/100x.
I thought they blew it not going for it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree with this statement.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Especially when the longest he hit pregame was 59 yards. Ha ha
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Came here to post that. That was absolutely unbelievable. Didn't have a stake in the game but I was almost mad that Steichen's idiocy got bailed out that way
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Down 2 scores with 9 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, the vikings punted on 4th & 1.
rockaction
Footballguy
And right before that, they were also down 15-6 and had run both on first down and then run again on second down to make it third and one before they had McCarthy throw an incomplete pass. There was no urgency with eleven minutes left down two scores and it just didn't seem like there was anything going on tonight but developing a QB, which is absolutely fine and understandable, but I think is 180 degrees away from what the Minnesota fandom wants or expects.
The kid is a rookie who has never played before, and he didn't play well last week until it clicked. And Atlanta has a first-round and a few second-round pass rushers that people have been saying are lights out—and last game he faced Dennis Allen on the road (don't mention Detroit)—so this is all understandable, but I think the fans thought they were going to get something different because they're both used to good football and Midwestern pluck and drive and feel like it should just be! But ask a Jets fan like me and we'll tell you that the **** is difficult and the stuff that looks easy can get awfully difficult really quickly.
So I think if you think about the immediate game at hand, then the play calling and decisions are frustrating. If you're developing a QB they're perfectly understandable and it depends how you choose to look at it.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Refreshing to have a coach admit when his play calling was not good at the end of the game.
"Found a way to win"
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Dallas should never have punted the last time to the Giants yesterday. Gutless
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
How does Houston have a kick return with 6 seconds left, trailing by 1, and not have any sort of lateral schemed out? Guy just returns the ball for 20 or so yards and gets tackled
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
In their defense, those runs were highly effective
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I would actually be curious to know whether it's more effective to run a pitchy-pitchy-woo-woo from a kick return or a play from scrimmage. It would seem like you'd rather do it with your best offensive weapons on the field (then again, that also means you're facing your opponent's top defenders)
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Giants just kicked a FG on 4th and 5 from the 7, trailing by 10 in the 4th quarter. I get that your offense has been bad all night, but that's all the more reason to try to score a TD when you get inside the 10. How can you be sure you'll be back there?
cheese
Footballguy
I agree with you in general, but in this case they had a specific reason. Gano was very injured and said he could only do chip shots so if they didn't take that fg there, they're going to need 2 TDs.
rockaction
Footballguy
I also get it but did you see what Russ did on that goal-to-go series when they actually gave him four downs to work with?
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
Brian Daboll and Mike McDaniel.
Just their decisions to continue to coach.
Just their decisions to continue to coach.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Ha, I had the same thought at the end of that series. I'm not sure he could have converted an eighth down, much less a fourth. Giants weren't going to win anything with him playing like that.
Still, that does make the argument for putting it all on one play and hoping you get lucky. But @cheese makes a good point as well. Maybe the biggest coaching mistake is leaving Russ in there and not just saying "Eff it" and seeing what they have in Dart. Clearly this team is going nowhere this year regardless
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
This one may seem small but it's emblematic of what I think will continue to be, one of the many problems with the Raiders under Pete Carroll.
On 3rd and 17 from their own 34 yard line with 40 seconds remaining in the half, facing a team that has already put up 240+ yards while running the ball at will against your defense and they have two timeouts left. The Raiders called a draw play for Dylan Laube (I don't blame you if you've never heard of him) for 2 yards. They didn't even try to get the first down. They punt, predictably the Commanders drive into field goal range and add three points to the score. Icing the Commanders struggling kicker allowed him to have a practice kick that he missed of course only adds insult to the first bad decision.
I think that was old school thinking by Pete Carrol in an era of analytics and risk taking. The Raiders will end up making a lot of those highly conservative decisions under Pete that will likely cost them in the long run.
On 3rd and 17 from their own 34 yard line with 40 seconds remaining in the half, facing a team that has already put up 240+ yards while running the ball at will against your defense and they have two timeouts left. The Raiders called a draw play for Dylan Laube (I don't blame you if you've never heard of him) for 2 yards. They didn't even try to get the first down. They punt, predictably the Commanders drive into field goal range and add three points to the score. Icing the Commanders struggling kicker allowed him to have a practice kick that he missed of course only adds insult to the first bad decision.
I think that was old school thinking by Pete Carrol in an era of analytics and risk taking. The Raiders will end up making a lot of those highly conservative decisions under Pete that will likely cost them in the long run.
rockaction
Footballguy
I was shouting from the rooftops that 4th and one punts with Pete from the fifty are not going away. Sorry if you’ve been subject to me saying this before (really) but these guys do. not. change. at. 75.
They jus’ won’t, don’t, can’t.
I’ve seen it with people I care about deeply w/baseball. They just can’t wrap their heads around stuff that’s so widely accepted w/in the past twenty years. It’s like a whole different framework is needed and the brain stops being able to grasp abstraction as we age (it actually does, by the way—my very close ex got her doctorate in psych/cognitive aging and worked with Alzheimer’s patients for a few years and would tell me not a ton I understood but I did catch that guys’ brains after 30 just . . . they’re toast) and they can’t mentally process these new things.
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm a veg, Danny.
Seems like you could fill this thread up with Brian Callahan missteps alone. Between time management before halftime, not knowing the actual rules, getting aggressive inside his own 10 in the closing minute of the half on the road with a rookie QB in his first game, running a time consuming drive at the start of the 4th quarter down 21, challenging a spot that when he wins makes it 2nd and inches in garbage time, not challenging a play that gives you a 30 yard gain in a close game, running five straight times when you get the ball near midfield with 3+ minutes and settling for a long FG attempt, admitting after 2 timeouts you couldn’t decide if you wanted to go for it on 4th and 1 or kick a long *** FG and then blaming a delay of game penalty on the ball boy giving the holder the wrong ball, running WR screens where no WR comes back for the ball, and all just go out and block, run all vertical deep routes instead of giving your heavily sacked QB an outlet if the pressure gets too intense with a garbage line in front of him, averaging over 10 penalties per game, etc.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
But other than those things, he’s excellent
rockaction
Footballguy
Man, you sorta feel for these guys when they’re not arrogant but are overwhelmed by the job like Callahan while seriously incompetent (total jerks) like Joe Judge and Matt Patricia ruin careers and put up a facade that nobody questions until it is too freaking late to stop the wreckage and then those same (total jerks) use industry connections and eat again at the trough of clueless billionaires.
I loathe that part of football. If I may pat my own back for a moment, Nathaniel Hackett’s thread that I started in about the 3rd quarter (maybe 4th?) of his first head coaching stint was the most spot-on, well-reasoned from analysis and emotion—and the most deserved call-out thread I’ve ever started here. I guess if you’re keeping score it’s now 224-1 but I’m clinging to the one.
eta* I called them something different than "total jerks"
I loathe that part of football. If I may pat my own back for a moment, Nathaniel Hackett’s thread that I started in about the 3rd quarter (maybe 4th?) of his first head coaching stint was the most spot-on, well-reasoned from analysis and emotion—and the most deserved call-out thread I’ve ever started here. I guess if you’re keeping score it’s now 224-1 but I’m clinging to the one.
eta* I called them something different than "total jerks"
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