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Post here when coaches do something you disagree with (1 Viewer)

Short Corner said:
More information is better.  If you miss the first one you know you need two more scores and can adjust your playcalling accordingly.  This has been discussed ad nauseum.
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No, you are done. There's 2 minutes left, you now need 9 points instead of 8, and you think you are gonna kick a FG and score ANOTHER TD? :lmao:

Lets count the # of times a team has scored 9 points in the last 2 minutes of an NFL game AND then the number of times they have not. I guarantee its like 0.001%

YOU ARE DONE if you miss the 2 point conversion.

5+ minutes, sure, ok. Go ahead but this doesn't even come close to qualifying as a coaching blunder. 

Rodrigo Duterte said:
:fishy:
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No, I'm discussing this situation last night. 2 minutes left no one is scoring 9 points in todays NFL. Swim away fishy.

 
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Short Corner said:
You're done if you miss the second one too 
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Yep but you give your team a chance all the way to the end. Miss the first one, pack your equipment up and let the other team run down the final 2 minutes.

The only reason to do it would be to save wear & tear on your players during the last 2 minutes. Certainly not because you think you can score another 9 points.

 
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lod001 said:
Yep but you give your team a chance all the way to the end. Miss the first one, pack your equipment up and let the other team run down the final 2 minutes.
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Little known fact: NFL teams can improve their weighted DVOA by keeping themselves alive as late in the game as possible.

 
Btw other reason to go for two in that situation is if you make it, you retain the option to go for two again and win it in regulation.

 
zftcg said:
You seem caught up on the phrase "obviously stupid". But if you read through the whole thread most of the discussions have been around decisions that were sub-optimal, ie that mathematically lowered a team's win probability. That is very different that saying most coaches or the average fan would recognize it as "obviously stupid". 

The classic example is when you're down 14 in the fourth quarter and score a TD. Not only would the majority of coaches/fans not consider it obviously stupid to kick the XP there, it would literally never occur to them to do anything else. Before Pederson and Shurmur went for two in that situation earlier this year, it had basically never happened since the advent of the 2PC. Yet the math couldn't be clearer that it is sub-optimal decision making, shaving 10 points off your win probability. By the criteria most of its have been using throughout the thread, kicking the XP there is "obviously stupid". You can disagree, but at that point it's really a semantic discussion.
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You are exactly correct.  I didn't read through the thread about what other discussions took place about general decisions instead of individual coaches.  I tend to get caught in the semantics of things. 

My only point is that the Colts coach didn't do anything obviously stupid as the whole league is doing it.  If it was obviously stupid from that point of view every coach would be doing it in the NFL.

 
lod001 said:
Yep but you give your team a chance all the way to the end. Miss the first one, pack your equipment up and let the other team run down the final 2 minutes.

The only reason to do it would be to save wear & tear on your players during the last 2 minutes. Certainly not because you think you can score another 9 points.
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This makes zero sense.  You miss the two you're probably done either way.  What does it matter "when the game is over"?  At least attempting it earlier gives you the smallest advantage of letting you know you need to score twice.  It's teeny tiny, but at least it's something, compared to the latter.

 
Although I will say that these coaches being too stupid to understand simple EV did help in one way.  Both helped the favorites cover the spread.  $$$$$ 🤑

 
smbkrypt24 said:
You are exactly correct.  I didn't read through the thread about what other discussions took place about general decisions instead of individual coaches.  I tend to get caught in the semantics of things. 

My only point is that the Colts coach didn't do anything obviously stupid as the whole league is doing it.  If it was obviously stupid from that point of view every coach would be doing it in the NFL.
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You'd think. And yet ...

But yes, in the context of this thread "obviously" generally refers to smart people like us who understand math, not dumb NFL coaches (kidding ... mostly). There are decisions that are not obvious in the sense of being counterintuitive, but are obvious in the sense of maximizing win probability.

 
zftcg said:
You'd think. And yet ...

But yes, in the context of this thread "obviously" generally refers to smart people like us who understand math, not dumb NFL coaches (kidding ... mostly). There are decisions that are not obvious in the sense of being counterintuitive, but are obvious in the sense of maximizing win probability.
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You must have missed the whole discussion about going for two down 14 with 5 minutes left.

 
Doctor: “I’m afraid you’ll need risky brain surgery to survive. You also should get that earwax removed at some point. Both procedures cost 100k.”

People in this thread: “Well in case I don’t survive the brain surgery, let’s do the earwax first.”

 
Not that it mattered -- NE's win expectancy was 99.9% even after they converted -- but I wonder what the logic was behind LA going for two after scoring to make it 41-20. If you get two more TDs + 2PCs then you can tie it with a FG? Probably more "We're behind by a lot so let's get points any chance we can."

ETA: Given recent semantic debates, I should clarify that I didn't mean to imply it was "obviously stupid". I'm genuinely not sure what the right decision is there (especially since it doesn't matter)

 
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zftcg said:
Not that it mattered -- NE's win expectancy was 99.9% even after they converted -- but I wonder what the logic was behind LA going for two after scoring to make it 41-20. If you get two more TDs + 2PCs then you can tie it with a FG? Probably more "We're behind by a lot so let's get points any chance we can."

ETA: Given recent semantic debates, I should clarify that I didn't mean to imply it was "obviously stupid". I'm genuinely not sure what the right decision is there (especially since it doesn't matter)
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This one is pretty obvious.

 
Short Corner said:
Doctor: “I’m afraid you’ll need risky brain surgery to survive. You also should get that earwax removed at some point. Both procedures cost 100k.”

People in this thread: “Well in case I don’t survive the brain surgery, let’s do the earwax first.”
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Let's get that brain surgery done because if I die, which odds say I will, there's no reason wasting your time cleaning out my dead ears. Pack me up in a box just like the equipment on the sidelines of an NFL team that went for 2 the first time, missed it and had no time to score another 9 points.

Plus I save $, not having to pay for that procedure. I think your are onto something here. :lmao:

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
I go for two there.  You have to get a two-point conversion, the sooner I know what we're up against, the better.  The XP part is obvious.

Garrett is so conservative.
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I probably do, as well, but with the amount of time on the clock, it really doesn’t matter

 
lod001 said:
Let's get that brain surgery done because if I die, which odds say I will, there's no reason wasting your time cleaning out my dead ears. Pack me up in a box just like the equipment on the sidelines of an NFL team that went for 2 the first time, missed it and had no time to score another 9 points.

Plus I save $, not having to pay for that procedure. I think your are onto something here. :lmao:
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Ok first of all, don't make @CalBear go to Pro Football Reference and pull up all the scenarios where teams scored twice in the final two minutes of a game.

Second, you have yet to explain the value to a team "staying alive" until the final seconds of a game as opposed to with two minutes left. If they can't convert a 2PC, they're going to lose no matter what.

 
zftcg said:
Ok first of all, don't make @CalBear go to Pro Football Reference and pull up all the scenarios where teams scored twice in the final two minutes of a game.

Second, you have yet to explain the value to a team "staying alive" until the final seconds of a game as opposed to with two minutes left. If they can't convert a 2PC, they're going to lose no matter what.
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They can explain themselves to other idiots on Monday.

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
Really?  How so?
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The logic is that scoring twice with 2:11 left is unrealistic, so once you miss a 2PC, you're screwed no matter what. That probably is true, but a) while highly unlikely, it's not impossible to score a TD+FG in two minutes, and b) it ignores the fact that if you convert the 2PC, you retain the option to go for two again after the second score and win in regulation.

So it is true that whatever you do will have at best a small impact on your win probability. But there is still no reason not to go for two unless you believe in meaningless cliches like "staying in the game" or "living to fight another day".

 
zftcg said:
The logic is that scoring twice with 2:11 left is unrealistic, so once you miss a 2PC, you're screwed no matter what. That probably is true, but a) while highly unlikely, it's not impossible to score a TD+FG in two minutes, and b) it ignores the fact that if you convert the 2PC, you retain the option to go for two again after the second score and win in regulation.

So it is true that whatever you do will have at best a small impact on your win probability. But there is still no reason not to go for two unless you believe in meaningless cliches like "staying in the game" or "living to fight another day".
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Um, this was my point.  Yet you stated you "genuinely weren't sure" what the right decision was.

 
Not sure what the numbers say, so I can't say it was obviously stupid, but I think Rams should have gone for it on 4th and goal from the 1. Being tied in the 4th quarter in New Orleans means you're behind.

Other reason is if you convert, you're up 4 and Saints can't bleed the clock on their drive. If refs had correctly called DPI, Saints would have run the clock down and won  in regulation

 
Payton being Payton.  All you have to do is run to try to get the first down, and if you don't you've left around 40 seconds on the clock for them to get a FG.  He's lucky they didn't use that almost 2 minutes to score a TD and win right there. 

Granted, the call was high percentage and wide open and should have been completed for 5 yards if Brees had executed properly. 

 
why did the Saints waste a TO to try to freeze the kicker and then bring the ball out of the end zone on the kickoff wasting 6 seconds?

wouldnt you want the ball on the 25 with 14 seconds left and two timeouts to try to get into FG range?

Brees could’ve used what was open in the middle with the TOs?

 
zftcg said:
Not sure what the numbers say, so I can't say it was obviously stupid, but I think Rams should have gone for it on 4th and goal from the 1. Being tied in the 4th quarter in New Orleans means you're behind.

Other reason is if you convert, you're up 4 and Saints can't bleed the clock on their drive. If refs had correctly called DPI, Saints would have run the clock down and won  in regulation
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That’s what I thought at the time. They got very lucky to not get punished for it.

 
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While I thought NE going for it on 4th down was the right call, why not sneak it with Brady? He is literally the best ever at that.

 
zftcg said:
While I thought NE going for it on 4th down was the right call, why not sneak it with Brady? He is literally the best ever at that.
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He's the best ever at it because he only does it when the defense leaves it open. This time the Chiefs were packing the middle with big bodies so it wasn't there.

 
zftcg said:
What did he do wrong in this game? I saw a team rebound from a 10-point deficit and put themselves into a position to win. It's not Reid's fault that Pats won the coin toss.
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He did nothing wrong at all. Made great second half adjustments. Their defense sucked all year but that's not a coaching thing and his player development is second to none. He's a hall of fame coach. 

 
I thought Andy Reid calling timeout with 1.11 left in the first half, Pats buried DEEEEP in the their own side of the field, was a HUGE mistake, boneheaded move ..Pats looked like they were content to just run out the clock there, maybe churn a 1st down or two, but not do anything stupid and have a turnover, etc..then Reid calls timeout, and that set off a chain reaction that had NE scoring a TD like 5 plays later.like BB said 'oh yeah you wanna play that game, ok, here ya go boom TD NE'.

but how the Chiefs coaching staff could let Brady March down that field 3 times they had 3rd and 10 in OT and 3 times they got the damn first down..that's just bad coaching.I'm sorry but it is. you've got to stop them at some point.change your gameplan.take over the play calling you're the HC..

 
Tanner9919 said:
but how the Chiefs coaching staff could let Brady March down that field 3 times they had 3rd and 10 in OT and 3 times they got the damn first down..that's just bad coaching.I'm sorry but it is. you've got to stop them at some point.change your gameplan.take over the play calling you're the HC..
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LOL. If giving up killer drives to Brady and the Pats is a sign of bad coaching, then the league is filled with bad coaches ... which, come to think of it, it pretty much is.

 
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Tanner9919 said:
but how the Chiefs coaching staff could let Brady March down that field 3 times they had 3rd and 10 in OT and 3 times they got the damn first down..that's just bad coaching.I'm sorry but it is. you've got to stop them at some point.change your gameplan.take over the play calling you're the HC..
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As soon as I saw Edelman go in motion towards the middle, I knew it was a crossing route, they were going to him and he would be wide open. Then they did the exact same play again and KC was only able to have a guy close to him when he caught it. Pathetic. Only the Patriots have smart enough players to read the D and determine where the opening is on every play. Both the QB and the receivers have to read the same thing. That takes time and these guys have years of experience in it. It's why Chad Johnson was a flop. He was too dumb.  Edelman makes a move pre snap, they see what the defender is doing and instead of running the called play they alter it. Defender has seen this formation, he believes the pattern is to the inside of the hash marks, he moves to the inside of Edelman, Edelman & Brady both see it, Edelman breaks outside. Other teams just run the called play. You know they do when you see them run right towards the defender. That kills me.

2 guys are going to be able to get to that level if their receivers can. That's Mahomes and Mayfield. Maybe Goff and maybe Wentz as well.

 
zftcg said:
What did he do wrong in this game? I saw a team rebound from a 10-point deficit and put themselves into a position to win. It's not Reid's fault that Pats won the coin toss.
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Deferring was bad, your offense is your strength send them out there and try and get a lead.  Apparently not thinking the Patriots would try and run on their defense.  Thinking rushing 4 will be enough to disrupt Brady.  At least on one of those 3rd and 10s blitz 6 to force a quick throw,  at this point I think it is proven Brady will make the clutch throw when unrushed and untouched.  No team can just let Brady sit back there and be comfortable,  just plain suicide.

 
hispeedthinmint said:
I'm amazed that teams do not pressure the hell out of Brady at this point. If you can get in his face, hit him, etc you will win the game.
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Because coaches in the NFL are for the most part dumb. It's as if they look at film of teams that lose to the Pats and try and fix the unfixable. It's simple. Pressure, jam the receivers at the line and play man to man. They have no deep threat capable of burning anyone and Brady has a noodle arm anyway.

 
lod001 said:
Because coaches in the NFL are for the most part dumb. It's as if they look at film of teams that lose to the Pats and try and fix the unfixable. It's simple. Pressure, jam the receivers at the line and play man to man. They have no deep threat capable of burning anyone and Brady has a noodle arm anyway.
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So simple! I guess that would explain all the Super Bowl rings you've won against Brady.

For the record, Pats have lost three playoff games in the past six years. One came against one of the greatest offenses in NFL history. Another came against one of the greatest defenses in NFL history. The third was against a team that allowed Brady to throw for 500 yards. Maybe -- and just hear me out here -- he keeps making defenses look bad because he's the greatest QB of all time?

 
lod001 said:
As soon as I saw Edelman go in motion towards the middle, I knew it was a crossing route, they were going to him and he would be wide open. Then they did the exact same play again and KC was only able to have a guy close to him when he caught it. Pathetic. Only the Patriots have smart enough players to read the D and determine where the opening is on every play. Both the QB and the receivers have to read the same thing. That takes time and these guys have years of experience in it. It's why Chad Johnson was a flop. He was too dumb.  Edelman makes a move pre snap, they see what the defender is doing and instead of running the called play they alter it. Defender has seen this formation, he believes the pattern is to the inside of the hash marks, he moves to the inside of Edelman, Edelman & Brady both see it, Edelman breaks outside. Other teams just run the called play. You know they do when you see them run right towards the defender. That kills me.

2 guys are going to be able to get to that level if their receivers can. That's Mahomes and Mayfield. Maybe Goff and maybe Wentz as well.
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When I was 14 playing neighborhood football, we created a play called the "cut opposite."  You ran straight up the field until you forced the defender to pick one side to run with you, then you made a hard cut the opposite way.  Unstoppable and not rocket surgery.

 
zftcg said:
Not sure what the numbers say, so I can't say it was obviously stupid, but I think Rams should have gone for it on 4th and goal from the 1. Being tied in the 4th quarter in New Orleans means you're behind.

Other reason is if you convert, you're up 4 and Saints can't bleed the clock on their drive. If refs had correctly called DPI, Saints would have run the clock down and won  in regulation
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Numbers are in and it was definitely the wrong call: http://www.footballperspective.com/the-rams-jeff-fishered-their-way-into-a-super-bowl-appearance/

 
zftcg said:
So simple! I guess that would explain all the Super Bowl rings you've won against Brady.

For the record, Pats have lost three playoff games in the past six years. One came against one of the greatest offenses in NFL history. Another came against one of the greatest defenses in NFL history. The third was against a team that allowed Brady to throw for 500 yards. Maybe -- and just hear me out here -- he keeps making defenses look bad because he's the greatest QB of all time?
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Yup it’s not just about getting pressure on him by blitzing.  He eats that #### up. You have to be able to pressure him with your front 4 (a nearly impossible task since he gets the ball out so quickly).  That and of course the fact that you can’t even sneeze on him without getting called for a personal foul.  😉

 
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Thought Reid should've given the ball to his MVP QB and that offense instead of deferring and putting his low ranked defense on the field first.  Brady drove down and scored taking half the quarter with him.  Tough to have your offense sitting on the sidelines while your defense is getting taken apart.  Defense took a hit to their confidence as well, most likely. 

Then sitting on 3 timeouts at the end when your defense is clearly gassed and can't stop Brady.  Call TO and give the defense a breather.  Hard to figure why he didn't use them.  Unless he just gave up, which is another issue.  

You have the best offense in the AFC and you would rather send out one of the worst defenses in the AFC to start the game.  Head scratcher.  

 
Jayrok said:
Thought Reid should've given the ball to his MVP QB and that offense instead of deferring and putting his low ranked defense on the field first.  Brady drove down and scored taking half the quarter with him.  Tough to have your offense sitting on the sidelines while your defense is getting taken apart.  Defense took a hit to their confidence as well, most likely. 

Then sitting on 3 timeouts at the end when your defense is clearly gassed and can't stop Brady.  Call TO and give the defense a breather.  Hard to figure why he didn't use them.  Unless he just gave up, which is another issue.  

You have the best offense in the AFC and you would rather send out one of the worst defenses in the AFC to start the game.  Head scratcher.  
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The defer thing is impossible to prove, so hard to say it was "obviously stupid". KC did absolutely nothing in the first half; you could just as easily argue that if they had received the ball they would have wasted the opportunity (keep in mind that they scored on their opening drive in the second half). Deferring is an old Belichick strategy; he clearly sees the value in doing it. Regardless, I don't think it had an impact one way or another.

Agree on the TOs. Should have used them to give his D a breather, though I also suspect they could have taken an hour-long nap and still wouldn't have been able to stop the Pats on that drive.

 
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