Post season: Who ya Buying?/Who ya Selling? (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

Finley a a buy IF he leaves Green Bay. Yes, that seems backwards but Finley can be a Jimmy Graham, an Antonio gates, etc. But he has got to go to a team that will actually use him in that way. He just doesn't have the opportunity in Green Bay. But his owners are probably disappointed in him after this year (especially owners who got screwed over in the FF playoffs). So this is a guy that, should he go to a team as a FA where they would actually use him, I like him too.

Finley doesn't get open like Graham, Gronkowski and Gates do. Supposedly he has just as much ability as those guys, but he doesn't seem to seperate from defenders all that often. He gets a lot of his catches in traffic. He's probably worth trying to buy because he might get there, but right now he's not in the same league as those other guys.

I have to agree here. Finley's struggles or failed potential are no fault of the Packers ignoring him. He is not even on Hernandez's level as a playmaker.

 

[GECKO]

Buying:

S. Smith (FA)

I was thinking the same, in the right system he could have value again.

What do you see panning out for Steve?

 

[Concept Coop]

I was thinking the same, in the right system he could have value again.What do you see panning out for Steve?

Best case: Returns to what he was: (27YO) NFL #2 capable of high catch totals.Worst case: We have seen the last of him as a relevant weapon. He goes to a poor situation and can't stay healhty.My money on: 70/700/5 as a team's 2nd best WR. I would like to see the Rams, Bears, 49ers, Patriots take a look at him.

 

[GECKO]

I was thinking the same, in the right system he could have value again.What do you see panning out for Steve?

Best case: Returns to what he was: (27YO) NFL #2 capable of high catch totals.Worst case: We have seen the last of him as a relevant weapon. He goes to a poor situation and can't stay healhty.My money on: 70/700/5 as a team's 2nd best WR. I would like to see the Rams, Bears, 49ers, Patriots take a look at him.

Good stuff.I like what I saw from E. Bennett last year. With an improved O line, he has decent size/speed combo I could see 70/700/5 as well.

 

[Concept Coop]

I would also add Mendenhall to the buy list. The word out of Pitt is that they still think he is capable starting RB when (if) healthy. Sure, Isaac Redmond had a better YPC, but don't underestimate the "Fresh Factor". His line did him no favors last season.

He is 24 years old and this could be his last/best shot at a big contract. He is going to give everything he has to get healthy and produce. In the grand scheme of things - whether or not he can retire, comfortably, could depend on what he does next season. Motivation will not be an issue - it's a positive in my opinion.

Granted, the NFL draft/FA could clear things up in a hurry.

 

[Dawg Pound 69]

Buying:

Ponder

Bowe

Austin

Rudolph

Rivers

Benson

D. Jackson

B. Marshall

F. Jackson

Sproles

Salas

S. Smith (FA)

Hillis

Selling:

Crabtree

Wallace

Harvin

MJD

E. Manning

Gresham

G. Jennings

J. Nelson

Spiller

Stafford

R. Cooper

A. Bradshaw

Tebow

Paying Market Price For (Value is high, but think it will get higher:

A. Hernandez

A. Brown

D. Murray

Newton

Cutting Bait (value is low, but I'm getting what I can):

Blount

Wayne

P. Manning

Curious why you see Benson as a Buy, instead of Cutting Bait ? Most of his owners are trying unsuccessfully to get rid of him at a decent discount. Would be shocked if an NFL team brings him in through free agency as a starting running back.

 

[thegiants]

it's hard to say. Every second in change

 

[pittstownkiller]

I would also add Mendenhall to the buy list. The word out of Pitt is that they still think he is capable starting RB when (if) healthy. Sure, Isaac Redmond had a better YPC, but don't underestimate the "Fresh Factor". His line did him no favors last season. He is 24 years old and this could be his last/best shot at a big contract. He is going to give everything he has to get healthy and produce. In the grand scheme of things - whether or not he can retire, comfortably, could depend on what he does next season. Motivation will not be an issue - it's a positive in my opinion. Granted, the NFL draft/FA could clear things up in a hurry.

Didn't someone post in the sharkpool that Mendenhall has a torn ACL?

 

[Matt's Eagles]

I would also add Mendenhall to the buy list. The word out of Pitt is that they still think he is capable starting RB when (if) healthy. Sure, Isaac Redmond had a better YPC, but don't underestimate the "Fresh Factor". His line did him no favors last season. He is 24 years old and this could be his last/best shot at a big contract. He is going to give everything he has to get healthy and produce. In the grand scheme of things - whether or not he can retire, comfortably, could depend on what he does next season. Motivation will not be an issue - it's a positive in my opinion. Granted, the NFL draft/FA could clear things up in a hurry.

Didn't someone post in the sharkpool that Mendenhall has a torn ACL?

I also read on the ESPN bottomline the Steelers do not expect him back this upcoming year.....he could be real cheap stash for 2013....but no one will sell him that cheap...easier to just hold him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I would also add Mendenhall to the buy list. The word out of Pitt is that they still think he is capable starting RB when (if) healthy. Sure, Isaac Redmond had a better YPC, but don't underestimate the "Fresh Factor". His line did him no favors last season. He is 24 years old and this could be his last/best shot at a big contract. He is going to give everything he has to get healthy and produce. In the grand scheme of things - whether or not he can retire, comfortably, could depend on what he does next season. Motivation will not be an issue - it's a positive in my opinion. Granted, the NFL draft/FA could clear things up in a hurry.

Didn't someone post in the sharkpool that Mendenhall has a torn ACL?

I also read on the ESPN bottomline the Steelers do not expect him back this upcoming year.....he could be real cheap stash for 2013....but no one will sell him that cheap...easier to just hold him.

Steelers GM Kevin Colbert indicated that the team will not be counting on Rashard Mendenhall (ACL surgery) for 2012. Mendenhall tore his right ACL on January 1 and will be a long shot to participate in any portion of 2012 training camp. "I never feel good about ACLs for a year," said Colbert. Mendenhall could open the year on PUP, costing him the first six games of the season. Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, and John Clay would be next in line for action in Pittsburgh's backfield. Feb 13 - 2:14

 

[Hoosier16]

Buying:

Benson



Cutting Bait (value is low, but I'm getting what I can):

Blount

Wayne

P. Manning

Curious why you see Benson as a Buy, instead of Cutting Bait ? Most of his owners are trying unsuccessfully to get rid of him at a decent discount. Would be shocked if an NFL team brings him in through free agency as a starting running back.

I was about to post the same question. I view him in the "Cutting Bait" category. I'd love to hear his reasoning as well. If it's just a shot in the dark, I think I'd rather cut bait. If it's something else, I could be talked into being a holder/buyer.

 

[Concept Coop]

Buying:

Benson



Cutting Bait (value is low, but I'm getting what I can):

Blount

Wayne

P. Manning

Curious why you see Benson as a Buy, instead of Cutting Bait ? Most of his owners are trying unsuccessfully to get rid of him at a decent discount. Would be shocked if an NFL team brings him in through free agency as a starting running back.

I was about to post the same question. I view him in the "Cutting Bait" category. I'd love to hear his reasoning as well. If it's just a shot in the dark, I think I'd rather cut bait. If it's something else, I could be talked into being a holder/buyer.

Nothing profound. Just my opinion on the way the NFL is going. Benson is a cheap rental for a team that needs boring carries. He can take the beating needed to keep guys like Charles and McFadden fresh. I would not be shocked to see a team bring him in as a stop gap starter. Although, more likely is that he is a rotation guy capable of 200+ carries. NFL coaches value experience and Benson is a plug and play guy. In a standard 12 team PPR, he is nothing more than a shot in the dark. But in my 14 team standard leagues, I think he is more than that.

 

[icehacka]

Buying:

Benson



Cutting Bait (value is low, but I'm getting what I can):

Blount

Wayne

P. Manning

Curious why you see Benson as a Buy, instead of Cutting Bait ? Most of his owners are trying unsuccessfully to get rid of him at a decent discount. Would be shocked if an NFL team brings him in through free agency as a starting running back.

I was about to post the same question. I view him in the "Cutting Bait" category. I'd love to hear his reasoning as well. If it's just a shot in the dark, I think I'd rather cut bait. If it's something else, I could be talked into being a holder/buyer.

IMO, only way Benson is in the buy category is if I can give up a late 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick for him.

 

[Concept Coop]

Buying:

Benson



Cutting Bait (value is low, but I'm getting what I can):

Blount

Wayne

P. Manning

Curious why you see Benson as a Buy, instead of Cutting Bait ? Most of his owners are trying unsuccessfully to get rid of him at a decent discount. Would be shocked if an NFL team brings him in through free agency as a starting running back.

I was about to post the same question. I view him in the "Cutting Bait" category. I'd love to hear his reasoning as well. If it's just a shot in the dark, I think I'd rather cut bait. If it's something else, I could be talked into being a holder/buyer.

IMO, only way Benson is in the buy category is if I can give up a late 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick for him.

He just went in the 17th round of my current startup. After Josh Johnson and Tony Moeaki. I'll pay that price.

 

[finito]

Buying:

Benson



Cutting Bait (value is low, but I'm getting what I can):

Blount

Wayne

P. Manning

Curious why you see Benson as a Buy, instead of Cutting Bait ? Most of his owners are trying unsuccessfully to get rid of him at a decent discount. Would be shocked if an NFL team brings him in through free agency as a starting running back.

I was about to post the same question. I view him in the "Cutting Bait" category. I'd love to hear his reasoning as well. If it's just a shot in the dark, I think I'd rather cut bait. If it's something else, I could be talked into being a holder/buyer.

IMO, only way Benson is in the buy category is if I can give up a late 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick for him.

He just went in the 17th round of my current startup. After Josh Johnson and Tony Moeaki. I'll pay that price.

If he's free, which that basically is, then sure, I guess. But IMO Benson is pretty much finished as a starter. But maybe he could be the thunder to someone's lightning, if there's any thunder left.

 

[Spike]

and owners are probably ready to give up...

Only the most impatient, ADHD owners would be ready to give up on Baldwin.

guess I could have worded it differently. Owners are pissed they didn't get anything from their 1st round pick so they may move him for cheaper than they would

I disagree with this. Keeper/dynasty owners are very reticent to trade 1st round picks after only one year. Not at any kind of discount, anyway.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I was thinking the same, in the right system he could have value again.What do you see panning out for Steve?

Best case: Returns to what he was: (27YO) NFL #2 capable of high catch totals.Worst case: We have seen the last of him as a relevant weapon. He goes to a poor situation and can't stay healhty.My money on: 70/700/5 as a team's 2nd best WR. I would like to see the Rams, Bears, 49ers, Patriots take a look at him.

Good stuff.I like what I saw from E. Bennett last year. With an improved O line, he has decent size/speed combo I could see 70/700/5 as well.

Why are you paying good money for 70/700/5?

 

[Grahamburn]

Buy - Chris Wells

 

[Concept Coop]

I was thinking the same, in the right system he could have value again.What do you see panning out for Steve?

Best case: Returns to what he was: (27YO) NFL #2 capable of high catch totals.Worst case: We have seen the last of him as a relevant weapon. He goes to a poor situation and can't stay healhty.My money on: 70/700/5 as a team's 2nd best WR. I would like to see the Rams, Bears, 49ers, Patriots take a look at him.

Good stuff.I like what I saw from E. Bennett last year. With an improved O line, he has decent size/speed combo I could see 70/700/5 as well.

Why are you paying good money for 70/700/5?

Who said anything about good money?

 

[Touchdown There]

Buy - Chris Wells

How do you see this playing out with Ryan Williams in the mix?

 

[Grahamburn]

Buy - Chris Wells

How do you see this playing out with Ryan Williams in the mix?

Ryan's injury is one of a serious nature. Not many players ever come back from it, and if they do they aren't nearly the same player they were. Beanie only had 255 touches this season. I don't see RW taking enough away to make that load any smaller.Beanie seems to be one of the few still young/in their prime RBs (24 when the season starts) out there with a depressed dynasty value for one reason or another. He's injury prone, he can't catch, he's soft, has no upside, etc. The guy averaged 4.3 ypc and had 10 TDs on a team that struggled mightily to throw the ball all year. His per game averages were 78.5 yards and .71 TDs. He strikes me as someone to pursue for a low RB2 price that will give high RB2 production, and if AZ improves their o-line or he goes to a team with a solid run blocking line he could have a couple stud seasons.

 

[Hoosier16]

Buying:

Benson



Cutting Bait (value is low, but I'm getting what I can):

Blount

Wayne

P. Manning

Curious why you see Benson as a Buy, instead of Cutting Bait ? Most of his owners are trying unsuccessfully to get rid of him at a decent discount. Would be shocked if an NFL team brings him in through free agency as a starting running back.

I was about to post the same question. I view him in the "Cutting Bait" category. I'd love to hear his reasoning as well. If it's just a shot in the dark, I think I'd rather cut bait. If it's something else, I could be talked into being a holder/buyer.

Nothing profound. Just my opinion on the way the NFL is going. Benson is a cheap rental for a team that needs boring carries. He can take the beating needed to keep guys like Charles and McFadden fresh. I would not be shocked to see a team bring him in as a stop gap starter. Although, more likely is that he is a rotation guy capable of 200+ carries. NFL coaches value experience and Benson is a plug and play guy. In a standard 12 team PPR, he is nothing more than a shot in the dark. But in my 14 team standard leagues, I think he is more than that.

That's about what I expected. In a 12 team, I think I'd rather have the roster spot.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Best case: Returns to what he was: (27YO) NFL #2 capable of high catch totals.Worst case: We have seen the last of him as a relevant weapon. He goes to a poor situation and can't stay healhty.My money on: 70/700/5 as a team's 2nd best WR. I would like to see the Rams, Bears, 49ers, Patriots take a look at him.

Good stuff.I like what I saw from E. Bennett last year. With an improved O line, he has decent size/speed combo I could see 70/700/5 as well.

Why are you paying good money for 70/700/5?

Who said anything about good money?

Look at the WRs taken in Rds 14-present of #DLFMock. Any money is good money. A 4th spent on damaged goods with low upside is money that could have been spent the multiple better bets of players currently in the same tier. If kept it's a lottery ticket that has maybe a 10% chance of turning into someone with top 75 value in less than a season. Smith is not worth picking up for free. The roster spot is better used to churn through FA with actual upside. Wesseling has the term "roster albatross."

 

[Run It Up]

Buying:

Peyton Manning

Tom Brady

Jay Cutler

Josh Freeman

CJ2K

Ray Rice

MJD

Matt Forte

Marshawn Lynch

Darren Sproles

Mike Tolbert

Ben Tate

Wes Welker

Vincent Jackson

Brandon Marshall

TB Mike Williams

Rob Gronkowski

Selling:

Eli Manning

Joe Flacco

Phillip Rivers

Ben Roethlisberger

Jamaal Charles

Ryan Mathews

Darren Mcfadden

Reggie Bush

Desean Jackson

Jeremy Maclin

Marques Colston

Jordy Nelson

Greg Jennings

Miles Austin

Dez Bryant

Dwayne Bowe

Anquan Boldin

Antonio Gates

Aaron Hernandez

 

[loose circuits]

and owners are probably ready to give up...

Only the most impatient, ADHD owners would be ready to give up on Baldwin.

guess I could have worded it differently. Owners are pissed they didn't get anything from their 1st round pick so they may move him for cheaper than they would

I disagree with this. Keeper/dynasty owners are very reticent to trade 1st round picks after only one year. Not at any kind of discount, anyway.

well some other dude in this thread says he was drafted in the 3rd round of drafts so apparently his value volatile in some leagues. I'd take my chances if that is the case. That's what I'm trying to say

 

[Concept Coop]

Smith is not worth picking up for free. The roster spot is better used to churn through FA with actual upside. Wesseling has the term "roster albatross."

Spare the "10%" talk. You can pull out any number to fit your argument. And 100+ receptions and 1,200+ yards is actual upside. I just picked Smith up in the 18th of a 14 team league. I would be happy to see you list 60 guys more worthy of a roster spot that where drafted after him, or went undrafted. Guys with "actual upside".

 

[BWill]

BUY:

Matt Flynn (Only if he goes to Miami... Cleveland, no, unless they get a #1 WR or Richardson.)

Matt Ryan (I feel his stats are going to rise from here on. Another year of matured Julio)

Michael Bush

Jonathan Stewart

Jon Baldwin

Leonard Hankerson

Brandon Marshall (Depending on the QB)

Brandon LaFell

Kyle Williams

Finley

 

[JohnnyU]

BUY:Matt Flynn (Only if he goes to Miami... Cleveland, no, unless they get a #1 WR or Richardson.)Matt Ryan (I feel his stats are going to rise from here on. Another year of matured Julio)Michael BushJonathan StewartJon BaldwinLeonard HankersonBrandon Marshall (Depending on the QB)Brandon LaFellKyle WilliamsFinley

Why buy LaFell? I'm just not seeing it.

 

[JohnnyU]

Buy: Kendall Hunter - Only a matter of time folks where this guy will be a top 10 RB. Gore has a lot of millage and he will be 29. He has maybe one good year left.

Sell: Kendall Hunter - Everyone knows this and now is the time to trade him for a bucket load.

 

[BeTheMatch]

BUY:Matt Flynn (Only if he goes to Miami... Cleveland, no, unless they get a #1 WR or Richardson.)Matt Ryan (I feel his stats are going to rise from here on. Another year of matured Julio)Michael BushJonathan StewartJon BaldwinLeonard HankersonBrandon Marshall (Depending on the QB)Brandon LaFellKyle WilliamsFinley

Why buy LaFell? I'm just not seeing it.

Newton has shown early on that the offense can produce points. Steve Smith is no spring chicken. I thought LaFell looked very, very good with limited opportunities this past year. If the Panthers don't draft a WR in the first, I feel very good about LaFell, and if you had the room, you could stash Gettis too and let it sort itself out.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Buy: Kendall Hunter - Only a matter of time folks where this guy will be a top 10 RB. Gore has a lot of millage and he will be 29. He has maybe one good year left.Sell: Kendall Hunter - Everyone knows this and now is the time to trade him for a bucket load.

Guys like Hunter are so league dependent. Buying and Selling could both be argued depending how much your league ponies up for potential.

 

[zamboni]

Buying Jacquizz Rodgers.

His role will increase with the OC change, and I see Turner hitting the wall next year. A lot of people are downplaying Quizz as too small, but he's short not small. Pretty powerful guy.

 

[JohnnyU]

Buying Jacquizz Rodgers.His role will increase with the OC change, and I see Turner hitting the wall next year. A lot of people are downplaying Quizz as too small, but he's short not small. Pretty powerful guy.

I definitely agree with this one. I've been acquiring him in as many leagues as I can.

 

[Andrew74]

Buying Jacquizz Rodgers.His role will increase with the OC change, and I see Turner hitting the wall next year. A lot of people are downplaying Quizz as too small, but he's short not small. Pretty powerful guy.

I definitely agree with this one. I've been acquiring him in as many leagues as I can.

As have I. I haven't found the price too steep.

 

[Andrew74]

I've seen several advocating selling Greg Jennings. I would like to hear others thoughts on that.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Buying Jacquizz Rodgers.His role will increase with the OC change, and I see Turner hitting the wall next year. A lot of people are downplaying Quizz as too small, but he's short not small. Pretty powerful guy.

I definitely agree with this one. I've been acquiring him in as many leagues as I can.

I have him in one league and am holding too for the reasons mentioned, but I gotta say, I wasn't real impressed with him on any of the runs I saw this past year. I can't remember a single decent run in his limited opportunities. Don't remember him breaking a single tackle either. Not that I saw every carry, but still...

 

[Concept Coop]

I've seen several advocating selling Greg Jennings. I would like to hear others thoughts on that.

I see the GB offense coming back down to earth a bit, personally. I still think they will be one of, if not the best offense in the NFL. But I don't think Rodgers is going to throw 45 TDs and have the historically best (arguable) NFL season ever, year after year. I think 30-35 his a more likely number, keep in mind that 30 was his previous career high. I understand that the rule changes could keep the total up, but I think a better running game could cut a few passing TDs out of the picture as well. Also, teams are going to adjust to the changes in the NFL, as they always do. Teams will find ways to keep eat the clock more efficiently when playing these high powered offenses. So, I expect 10-15 passing TDs to be removed from the equation. Jennings specifically - he'll be 29 when the season starts. And, I know that is not old, but it makes his value more fragile. A year closer to the ugly 30 number that owners hate. He will also be dealing with the other weapons that GB sports, especially Jordy Nelson - who teams are more willing to let get behind them deep. I think it is a good time to sell him for those reasons: He is 28, young enough to command top dollar, but still close to 30. The GB offense will even out. He has other weapons to compete with, which could make him inconsistent, as he has been in the past.Edit:For example, I am believer in Victor Cruz. I would gladly move Jennings for Cruz +. I would gladly move him for Roddy +, Marshall + or add something to him to get Nicks or Green.He is being drafted as a top 5 WR, but the gap bewteen him and the other WRs I mentioned is small, IMO.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Smith is not worth picking up for free. The roster spot is better used to churn through FA with actual upside. Wesseling has the term "roster albatross."

Spare the "10%" talk. You can pull out any number to fit your argument. And 100+ receptions and 1,200+ yards is actual upside. I just picked Smith up in the 18th of a 14 team league. I would be happy to see you list 60 guys more worthy of a roster spot that where drafted after him, or went undrafted. Guys with "actual upside".

Saying he can put up another 100 catch season is denial. His upside is Steve Breaston right now. Best case scenario is WR3 on the Giants. He couldn't beat out Jason Avant or Riley Cooper when healthy last year and playing very low snaps led him to end the year on IR due to bruising on the same knee he had surgery on. List of 60 guys: All 50 players in Wesseling's crib sheet. Add Randy, Vince Brown, Benn, Hankerson, Meachem, E. Sanders, Damian Williams, G. Tate, Ford, Roberts/Bess/Kerley (Peyton slot machine gambles). I could keep going but you said 60. Probably at least 15 rookie WRs will have more value after the draft. I would rather take a chance on super long shots like Tandon Doss, Taylor Price, Dez Briscoe, Cecil Shorts III than Steve Smith at this point.

 

[finito]

Smith is not worth picking up for free. The roster spot is better used to churn through FA with actual upside. Wesseling has the term "roster albatross."

Spare the "10%" talk. You can pull out any number to fit your argument. And 100+ receptions and 1,200+ yards is actual upside. I just picked Smith up in the 18th of a 14 team league. I would be happy to see you list 60 guys more worthy of a roster spot that where drafted after him, or went undrafted. Guys with "actual upside".

Saying he can put up another 100 catch season is denial. His upside is Steve Breaston right now. Best case scenario is WR3 on the Giants. He couldn't beat out Jason Avant or Riley Cooper when healthy last year and playing very low snaps led him to end the year on IR due to bruising on the same knee he had surgery on. List of 60 guys: All 50 players in Wesseling's crib sheet. Add Randy, Vince Brown, Benn, Hankerson, Meachem, E. Sanders, Damian Williams, G. Tate, Ford, Roberts/Bess/Kerley (Peyton slot machine gambles). I could keep going but you said 60. Probably at least 15 rookie WRs will have more value after the draft. I would rather take a chance on super long shots like Tandon Doss, Taylor Price, Dez Briscoe, Cecil Shorts III than Steve Smith at this point.

Not that I'm disagreeing with you, but how do you know he was really healthy last season? If he was truly healthy, then you're suggesting he has no talent because he offers no upside. If he was truly healthy, then you're calling his 100 catch season a complete fluke.

If his knee will never be the same, then he'll never truly be healthy - I can dig that argument. But you're suggesting he was healthy and horrible, which I don't know that I agree with. Maybe it takes a year or more to come back fully, maybe he never will, I don't know. But I did think he was talented before the injury.

 

[Concept Coop]

Smith is not worth picking up for free. The roster spot is better used to churn through FA with actual upside. Wesseling has the term "roster albatross."

Spare the "10%" talk. You can pull out any number to fit your argument. And 100+ receptions and 1,200+ yards is actual upside. I just picked Smith up in the 18th of a 14 team league. I would be happy to see you list 60 guys more worthy of a roster spot that where drafted after him, or went undrafted. Guys with "actual upside".

Saying he can put up another 100 catch season is denial. His upside is Steve Breaston right now. Best case scenario is WR3 on the Giants. He couldn't beat out Jason Avant or Riley Cooper when healthy last year and playing very low snaps led him to end the year on IR due to bruising on the same knee he had surgery on. List of 60 guys: All 50 players in Wesseling's crib sheet. Add Randy, Vince Brown, Benn, Hankerson, Meachem, E. Sanders, Damian Williams, G. Tate, Ford, Roberts/Bess/Kerley (Peyton slot machine gambles). I could keep going but you said 60. Probably at least 15 rookie WRs will have more value after the draft. I would rather take a chance on super long shots like Tandon Doss, Taylor Price, Dez Briscoe, Cecil Shorts III than Steve Smith at this point.

In 2009 Smith had an INCREDIBLE 68% catch rate, even more incredible considering the volume and the fact that he went deep on 30% of his routes. He sported a 60% success rate - he made plays. He was one of the best WRs in the NFL. I don't understand your argument, really. Smith was clearly not healthy last season. If you are under the impression that a healthy Steve Smith can't crack a rotation with Avants and Coopers ahead of him, then okay. You don't think he is talented, or you think he is damaged beyond repair. If it is the later, I would ask what medical backing you have seen to support this. If you don't think he is talented enough, we have to agree to disagree. But even a shot a 90% of a 2009 Steve Smith has to be worth more than a guy like Golden Tate, who has shown nothing. *Most of those guys listed were drafted before Smith.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I don't understand your argument, really. Smith was clearly not healthy last season. If you are under the impression that a healthy Steve Smith can't crack a rotation with Avants and Coopers ahead of him, then okay. You don't think he is talented, or you think he is damaged beyond repair.

He was as healthy as he'll ever be. He was not that great to begin with. The best he will ever be in the future is Steve Breaston.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't understand your argument, really. Smith was clearly not healthy last season. If you are under the impression that a healthy Steve Smith can't crack a rotation with Avants and Coopers ahead of him, then okay. You don't think he is talented, or you think he is damaged beyond repair.

He was as healthy as he'll ever be. He was not that great to begin with. The best he will ever be in the future is Steve Breaston.

He will get healthier. He was great. The best he will ever be is a 2009 version of himself. Random %. This is fun.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Buying:

Reggie Bush- people love to hate bush, but hes clearly talented and from what I saw last year he learned to run between the tackles. He will never be a pure between the tackles runner , nor does he need to be. What exactly about last year seemed fluky to everyone? I feel like he was pretty consistent. Daniel Thomas? Never really been a fan to be honest. Seems like a pretty good buy low candidate to me. Everyone is saying his value is high, but judging by the (pretty much) common concensus here of him being a fluke, I would say you could get him for more than a decent price

Brandon Lloyd

Jamaal Charles

Phillip Rivers

Sam Bradford

Greg Jennings

Darrius Heyward Bey

Kyle Rudolph

Jason Witten

Selling:

Cam Newton - Love Cam, but he is valued as a top 5 pick in a start up right now. Its not that I think his play will decrease or hes a fluke, I just think you can get a tremendous package for him right now.

Steven Jackson

Frank Gore

Jordy Nelson

Hakeem Nicks

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't understand your argument, really. Smith was clearly not healthy last season. If you are under the impression that a healthy Steve Smith can't crack a rotation with Avants and Coopers ahead of him, then okay. You don't think he is talented, or you think he is damaged beyond repair.

He was as healthy as he'll ever be. He was not that great to begin with. The best he will ever be in the future is Steve Breaston.

You couldn't possibly know that for sure. As far as the second statement, it would depend on what you define as "great". As some one in the market that watched almost all of his games as a Giant, I think he was way under-rated because he wasn't physically gifted or "elite" on that level. He was one of the best route runners in the NFL, had very good small area quickness and was very sure handed - the guy could get open in a phone booth. He was talented, just not talented in a flashy way. Matt Waldman was very high on him coming out of USC based on his film studies for the RSP. I beleive he was his second rated WR in that class.As far as his future value - I wouldn't really claim to know. His injury was quite serious so you may be right, but not sure how anyone can say it so definitively. I think his upside is as high as any WR that is in the range that you two are speaking about - all those guys are risky in differnt ways, and all probably realistically have a marginal chance of reaching their upside.

 

[Matt's Eagles]

Bump...

 

[sihaokills]

Buying:Reggie Bush- people love to hate bush, but hes clearly talented and from what I saw last year he learned to run between the tackles. He will never be a pure between the tackles runner , nor does he need to be. What exactly about last year seemed fluky to everyone? I feel like he was pretty consistent. Daniel Thomas? Never really been a fan to be honest. Seems like a pretty good buy low candidate to me. Everyone is saying his value is high, but judging by the (pretty much) common concensus here of him being a fluke, I would say you could get him for more than a decent priceBrandon LloydJamaal CharlesPhillip RiversSam BradfordGreg JenningsDarrius Heyward BeyKyle RudolphJason WittenSelling:Cam Newton - Love Cam, but he is valued as a top 5 pick in a start up right now. Its not that I think his play will decrease or hes a fluke, I just think you can get a tremendous package for him right now.Steven JacksonFrank GoreJordy NelsonHakeem Nicks

Please explain for Nicks

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Buying:Reggie Bush- people love to hate bush, but hes clearly talented and from what I saw last year he learned to run between the tackles. He will never be a pure between the tackles runner , nor does he need to be. What exactly about last year seemed fluky to everyone? I feel like he was pretty consistent. Daniel Thomas? Never really been a fan to be honest. Seems like a pretty good buy low candidate to me. Everyone is saying his value is high, but judging by the (pretty much) common concensus here of him being a fluke, I would say you could get him for more than a decent priceBrandon LloydJamaal CharlesPhillip RiversSam BradfordGreg JenningsDarrius Heyward BeyKyle RudolphJason WittenSelling:Cam Newton - Love Cam, but he is valued as a top 5 pick in a start up right now. Its not that I think his play will decrease or hes a fluke, I just think you can get a tremendous package for him right now.Steven JacksonFrank GoreJordy NelsonHakeem Nicks

Please explain for Nicks

From the talk at the time, people were saying hes #2 dynasty guy... I dont see that at all. I see him ranked around 7-10. Since a lot of people are valuing him so high, I would sell or perhaps get a guy like Julio Jones, A J Green or Larry Fitzgerald for him.I obviously love Nicks skill , but I dont think he is in the talent range like the guys I listed I would trade for him above.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

http://fantasy-footballu.com/buy-low/

Figured I would post the entire thing for those who dont feel like following links to my endless self promotion lol

Buying:

QB

Sam Bradford- I have never doubted Bradford's talent at any point, what I started to doubt last year what that the Rams would be able to get enough around him. I think with the most recent trade, the Rams are poised to build a solid core (and future) around Bradford. Obviously there are quite a few variables swirling around him right now, but I have faith they are getting some playmakers on that offense this offseason. If they don’t address WR or RB this draft, I may have to re-think my Rams fandom as a whole.

Phillip Rivers- People are really letting last year skew there view of Rivers and I don’t get it. I fully admit River was below par the first half of last year, but his year was not that bad. 27 TDs to 20 INTs is bad...FOR HIM. 88.7 QB rating is bad...FOR HIM. 62.9 completion % is bad...FOR HIM. But those stats aren’t all that bad. Rivers is one of the most accurate deep ball passers in the league and I'm not letting one year overshadow that. One of the main things that made him look bad is that it was such a historic year for the QB. With guys like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton going for obscene numbers, it made Rivers look even worse in the worst year of his Career. I say he bounces back to his normal 100-105 QB rating 30 TD, 10-15 INT, 65 completion % self, which is still good people! We have been spoiled!

Jay Cutler- I'm not Cutler's biggest fan, but he’s going for nearly nothing right now in most leagues and I think there’s value to be gained here. Also, if something weird happens and the Bears finally improve his offensive situation (WR, TE, LINE), in any way, he could surprise.

Carson Palmer- I really like the young core that Palmer has around him now with the Running game, Heyward Bey's Career Resurgence and the addition of highflying Denarius Moore. I think Oakland's offense could be a top 5 next year with Palmer being there for a year and the ridiculous amount of weapons he has to play with.

Josh Freeman- Freeman gets a mulligan for me. He showed enough his rookie year to know that he has potential. I think a new coach, system and (mostly) new players around him with help show what he can do with a competent cast. I don’t think he has the makings of an elite guy, but borderline top 10 finishes are foreseeable once he gets his bearings.

RB

Michael Bush- Bush's value is dependent on where he goes, but he will become a top 15 back if he gets a job to himself. Bush has good hands and is a solid RB that can stay in on goaline opportunities. Not the most talented back, but can carry the load for an NFL team.

Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles- Elitely talented backs that got hurt last year. From the reports is sounds like both are making good recoveries and it’s officially worth the risk of trading for them. Both are entering the prime ages of their careers and should be available at a much-reduced price.

Chris Johnson- Johnson does not come without risk, but I believe it’s worth the risk to grab an elite talent. The most concerning thing about Johnson is the fact that you’re concerned with his effort. We can't totally say last year was because he didn't care, but the combination of holding out, coming into the season out of shape and strange vibe coming from his situation in general, you have to worry a bit about him not fulfilling his potential. Although I just made you worried, Johnson's talent is so impressive, it averages it out. Two years ago CJ2k and ADP were considered the consensus top 2, you can't ignore a guy that is in his prime and ran for 2000 yards...you just can't

Matt Forte- As much as Chicago continues to insult Forte, make no mistake, he is the offense. A top 5 all-purpose back in the league. Although the bears don’t have a lot around him, he seems to get it done in a variety of ways and his end of the year injury worries me as little as Charles and ADP. I see forte falling right back into place as a top 10 back next year

Donald Brown/Delone Carter- Whelp, someone has to win the job right? I don’t particularly like either player, but if your looking for RBs that are dirt-cheap and could end up surprising with a top 15-20 seasons and/or being viable bye week filler, these are the guys for the job. Brown Showed last year that he may not live up to the first round pick he was, but he could handle the job if given to him. I actually like Carter more as a player, but fumbling was an issue and kept him off the field last year. I'm not exactly sure who wins this job, but as of now, you’re getting something for nothing with either.

Mark Ingram- the classic overhyped rookie let down. I'm in the middle on Ingram and last year really didn't tell me anything. I still think he will be a solid back in the league, but I don’t buy into him being a perennial bowl player. I think Sean Payton will find a place for Ingram and I could see some solid fantasy seasons ahead in that New Orleans offense. Try to grab him off anyone who drafted him last year, there owners are bound to be a little disgruntled

Daniel Thomas- Another guy I’m wishy washy on. Never been a big fan of Thomas, but clearly the Dolphins saw something in him considering they drafted him in the second round last year. I have no doubt they will give him an opportunity at some point, just got to wait and see. As Forrest Gump says... well you know, yada yada, you never know what your gonna get. He could be something and he’s and you could get him for a late 1st early 2nd... definitely worth a flier

Stevan Ridley- In the limited time I saw Ridley play last year, he looked like the patriot back of the future. I really think he takes the reigns on the backfield as soon as this year. As with everything Patriots, you never really know what they are thinking, but the way they got him carries and the way he looked with those carries, I got a good feeling on this one.

Montario Hardesty- ughhhh... broken down and brittle... but could have the job to himself. Whenever I see hardesty on my roster I cringe a little bit as I think his name is going to wear off on the rest of my team. If he can manage to stay healthy, he has the raw skills and ability to succeed at this level and he would have the Browns backfield all to himself. Obviously you dont pay a lot for him, but certainly worth a flier as he could turn into a feature guy at the drop of a hat.

WR

Brandon Lloyd- I love Brandon Lloyd... Full man Crush situation. He has Fitzgerald like ball skills and body control. He is getting older, but the types of things he’s best at, are the last things to leave you as a WR. From what I'm hearing its pretty much down to the Rams or the Patriots, either would make him a solid WR2 next year with high WR1 potential. I think it could go either way if he ends up with New England, we've seen hits (Randy Moss) and Misses (Chad Johnson)... I would say he ends up somewhere in-between.

Reggie Wayne- I like him for essentially the same reason I still like Lloyd, the skills Wayne possess are the last ones to leave you. Wayne is a technician on the field with great hands, route running and body control. Another positive for Wayne is that he got better as the year went on last year, presumably because the offense started to focus on Garcon more. All in all I think Wayne is a great guy to buy now as he could follow manning in Denver (Demaryius Thomas) or Arizona (Larry Fitzgerald), who both have guys to take the pressure off him.

DeSean Jackson- No matter what you think of DeSean and his sometimes-immature antics, he is a gamebreaker, a big play waiting to happen. If Philly can keep it together next year they should easily succeed what they did in 2011. The same goes for Jackson, most seem to be focusing on the fact that he was taking plays off, being lazy and a distraction. Many are failing to realize he still had 961 yards, in a clearly distracted, worst year of his career. I think his mood, play and stats all improve back to what they had been in previous years. Grab him now while his value is a mid to late first.

Darrius Heyward Bey- This is easily the most confusing player to me. What am I seeing that nobody else isn't? Bey had a very solid year last year, showing a lot of skills, in the air and after the catch, yet people are so quick to toss him aside and assume Denarius Moore is the unquestioned WR1 on that team. It's just so confusing to me, why can’t they both be productive? Bey had some really good games last year (New England, Houston, Detroit, San Diego) in a very volatile situation. I don’t think anyone in Oakland, including the coaches, knew what they were doing with the receivers last year. One game Bey would be the main focus of the offense, the next he would only get 2 or 3 targets. I'm buying the Raiders offense this year and one of the main reasons is Bey.

Arrelious Benn- alright Tampa Bay, lets talk. GET THIS GUY THE BALL AND STOP ####TING AROUND. I really don’t understand this one, in the games he’s played and the targets he’s gotten, he’s looked good, something just keeps holding him back. This is the last year I'm telling people to buy him without seeing on the field results (getting him the ball on a consistent basis). This is a big year for Benn and I hope he gets the opportunity to show the potential that I think I'm seeing.

Greg Little- http://fantasy-footballu.com/z-blog/2012/2/24/rookie-year-greg-little.html

Randall Cobb- Cobb showed some major flashes his rookie year and his involvement in the Packers high-powered offense should only grow. He caught 25 of his 31 targets last year and showed time and again the type of potential he has on kick and punt returns. Donald Driver is gone and I think Cobb will be pushing James Jones for the full time WR3 spot by the end of the year. Obviously the 4th option (Jennings, Finley, Nelson) in an offense isn't great for fantasy, but its the packers... certainly a bye week Flex guy for this year with big time potential if injuries hit. He’s more of a long-term investment player, but great guy to have on a dynasty bench.

Steve Breaston- It seems like everyone just forgot about the guy. I don’t think he’s going to blow up or anything, but he’s certainly rosterable and even startable some weeks. If KC gets a QB Breaston is a WR3 next year, he’s going for pennies right now...go out and get him. He wasn't even forgotten in the offense, he had 98 targets, KC isn't going to pay him to sit on the bench. He certainly had a down year, don’t go overboard with that thought though.

TEs

Jared Cook- The classic 'O MY GOD LOOK AT THAT GUY' tight end prospect. As with most NFL players, the biggest knock on Cook is consistency. He had 3 games over 90 yards on the year and the rest were all under 60. If they give Locker a shot to start this year with Kenny Britt taking all the attention, I could see Cook becoming Locker's favorite target. I could also see this going the other way and Cook falling straight into oblivion ... but he’s worth grabbing because he costs almost nothing.

Lance Kendricks- Can I have a mulligan? I was totally wrong on Kendricks last year and I apologize. I knew it was going to be a long year for Kendricks after the first Rams game I watched. As they had talked and promised, they made kendricks one of the main focus' of the offense early... he was so nervous it was painful. A drop filled, wrong route running, embarrassing rookie year it was for Kendricks, but its ok, because that’s to be expected of a rookie, right? Tight end is one of the toughest positions to learn as it is, never mind having to be the main focus of a below average offense. Kendricks is a good, hard working kid and I have full faith that he will put it together at some point, hopefully this upcoming year.



Jason Witten- I really don’t think Witten gets the credit he deserves and he hasn't for years now. Witten has been a top 5 tight end since 2007 and he is constantly overlooked for overhyped, less achieved players. He’s still under 30 and should be considered an elite TE for dynasty, but he just isn't. I admit, I did it last year with Jermichal Finley... Witten is an all-around TE and his consistency makes him worth considerably more than hes being sold for.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

http://fantasy-footballu.com/buy-low/2012/3/13/pre-draft-overvalued.html

Disclaimer: I dont really like doubting guys or saying someone cant do something, mostly because it makes you look like a miserable , angry hater(which I am not). But these are a few guys that are being overvalued a bit and probably hit their ceilings last year.

QB

Matthew Stafford- Once again, as long as stafford stay healthy, hes fantasy gold. But how can you not be a little overvalued after throwing 40+ TDs in one year? The price your paying for stafford now is astronomical compared to QBs like say, Phillip Rivers, when on a normal year the stats would be close to the same.

Eli Manning- The Superbowl. Enough said. I think Manning has come a long way in the past few years, but he will never be an elite fantasy QB, at least not if Qb trends continue in the direction they are. Again I'm harping on Phillip Rivers here, he is a better fantasy QB than Manning even with Mannings advantage in situation.

RB

Ben Tate- I am one of Tate's biggest supporters and I will continue to be, but im certainly not paying the asking price of what he costs now. As much as I think he could be a top 10 fantasy RB in houston, he is nothing but a shiney handcuff until Foster gets injured or something wierd happens. Foster is the man their and unfortunately for tate, hes going to be cleaning up after him until he is through. I would understand paying a premium if you own Foster, but if thats not the case I would stay away for now.

LeSean McCoy- Obviously McCoy is a supremely talented kid in a perfect situation for himself, but its tough to live up to the precedent he set for him self a year ago. 20 total TDs 1600 yards and 48 catches does not happen every year and for him to live up to that,everything has to go perfect. For some reason I'm afraid of injury with McCoy, I dont have a real reason for it, just a gut feeling. Nothing about him on the field scares me, its just to much could go wrong for me to be buying him right now. Another recent trend in for RBs recently is not being able to put it together for multiple years, I would not surprise me if McCoy becomes a member of that group.

WR

Victor Cruz- Super Bowl. Enough said... well, actually not really. Cruz burst onto the scene this year and never looked back and considering I'm from amherst... I was rather excited with his stats this year. but, being honest with yourself, do you see Cruz doing this again? I dont. Nicks is the #1 there and although Cruz is a great target for Manning, Nicks is the guy there and will gain the majority of the targets. Also, in the super the Patriots took Cruz out of the game, focusing competely on shutting him down. I have a strong feeling opposing defenses will be paying a lot more attention to Cruz next year.

Jordy Nelson- See Victor Cruz , except replace Nicks with Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley.

One stat that keeps me lower on Nelson is the fact that he caught 68 of his 94 targets (72%).

1. He managed to be a top 5 fantasy WR on only 94 targets

2. he got 15 TDs in 68 catches..... thats means 22% of his catches went for touchdowns aka every 5 catches...Thats incredible.

It's not that I totally dis-like Nelson, I just think he is the brandon Stokley to his Peyton Manning(Aaron Rodgers)

Denarius Moore- I may be off on this one and the people that are buying him not could be genius's ... but to quote my inner Lee Corso ... Not so fast my friends. I still think Darrius Heyward Bey has the upper hand in this battle and I need to see how training camp plays out before I'm comfortable paying the price I see people already payinf for Moore.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

QB

Sam Bradford- I have never doubted Bradford's talent at any point, what I started to doubt last year what that the Rams would be able to get enough around him. I think with the most recent trade, the Rams are poised to build a solid core (and future) around Bradford. Obviously there are quite a few variables swirling around him right now, but I have faith they are getting some playmakers on that offense this offseason. If they don’t address WR or RB this draft, I may have to re-think my Rams fandom as a whole.

Phillip Rivers- People are really letting last year skew there view of Rivers and I don’t get it. I fully admit River was below par the first half of last year, but his year was not that bad. 27 TDs to 20 INTs is bad...FOR HIM. 88.7 QB rating is bad...FOR HIM. 62.9 completion % is bad...FOR HIM. But those stats aren’t all that bad. Rivers is one of the most accurate deep ball passers in the league and I'm not letting one year overshadow that. One of the main things that made him look bad is that it was such a historic year for the QB. With guys like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton going for obscene numbers, it made Rivers look even worse in the worst year of his Career. I say he bounces back to his normal 100-105 QB rating 30 TD, 10-15 INT, 65 completion % self, which is still good people! We have been spoiled!

Jay Cutler- I'm not Cutler's biggest fan, but he’s going for nearly nothing right now in most leagues and I think there’s value to be gained here. Also, if something weird happens and the Bears finally improve his offensive situation (WR, TE, LINE), in any way, he could surprise.

Carson Palmer- I really like the young core that Palmer has around him now with the Running game, Heyward Bey's Career Resurgence and the addition of highflying Denarius Moore. I think Oakland's offense could be a top 5 next year with Palmer being there for a year and the ridiculous amount of weapons he has to play with.

Josh Freeman- Freeman gets a mulligan for me. He showed enough his rookie year to know that he has potential. I think a new coach, system and (mostly) new players around him with help show what he can do with a competent cast. I don’t think he has the makings of an elite guy, but borderline top 10 finishes are foreseeable once he gets his bearings.

Checkmate!