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It was reported that there was NO nerve damage so you can alleviate that concern. It was reported that although you have the three tears, they were all clean. I really think this whole idea of catastrophic injury is overblown and this is a significant, yet not ruinous injury. It's almost like the media is planting or building a story instead of just reporting one. It will make a great comeback story but I think the rumors of lattimore's death have been exaggerated.
Why does it seem like this is an easy concept to accept for fantasy but difficult to accept for the real draft?
People are spending first round picks on him while the 9ers spent what a 3rd or 4th?
Count me in the group that believes it was catastrophic and the media didn't have to plant a darn thing.Rooting for the kid, hope he proves everyone wrong. But, I think think this is all misplaced hope and optimism. I'd put better odds on hitting powerball, in fact, than for Lattimore ever having a fantasy-relevant season.
I was meaning more like a Weeden to the Browns situation. He's not a "first round talent" but Browns didn't think they had the picks to wait and really wanted him, for example.
I disagree. I believe the phrase "consensus top 7" is both sensical and meaningful. It means if you want one of those guys, you need a top 7 pick- the chances of any of them falling to 1.08 in a relatively standard league is very low. It's like in 2011, where there was a consensus top 3 (Ingram, Green, Julio), but the order of those three varied a lot.My top 7 includes Eifert and excludes Lacy, which means the fact that Lacy is part of the consensus top 7 is very important information for me- it means I can stay put at my #8 pick and be practically certain of walking away with one of my top guys.
1.07 M. Lattimore RB 49ers1.08 D. Hopkins WR Texans
loving my rookie draft
Very nice draft considering your rules. I would have rather had the Bernard/Wheaton combo over the Hunter/Franklin combo.
There aren't any 1st round rookie picks lasting until end of the 1st round of rookie drafts. All the 2nd RB's are gone and there are a couple 2nd round WR's and TE's.
I agree with you on Bernard, i didn't think he'd fall that far but I had my heart set on JH considering the contract $$
The point is what does that really tell you? It tells us that using a seven number factorial of variations, there are literally 5,040 combinations of orders these players could be drafted. Compared to a year when there are 3 guys in the conversation (from the 2011 example) which results in 6 combinations, that's a BIG difference. If you ask the entire football world and your answer is "there are 6 outcomes", that's a general consensus of agreement. If you ask and the answer is "5,040", that tells you CLEARLY that there is no consensus. It tells you that it is WIDE OPEN.
There *IS* general agreement, though. Maybe not general agreement over the things you really, really want to know ("who are going to be the top 3 picks?"), but certainly agreement over some things ("who is going to be left on the board at pick #8?")
I have Hunter ranked ahead of both also. Not a big Bernard fan, and Lacy dropped behind Hunter for me when several RB needy teams picked others over him.
I think it's human nature to overvalue the immediate. Also, a lot of teams that have high picks have bad rosters. They need instant help and can't necessarily afford to wait on a 2-3 year project. So they end up reaching for need and hoping for the best. That usually means picking a RB with a line on a starting job. Everyone is hoping for the next Matt Forte, but a lot of these prospects will end up like Ben Tate, Ronnie Hillman, or Tatum Bell. Given the option, I'd rather wait on a potential legitimate talent than hope for the instant boom with a marginal prospect.
What the NFL thinks is important. The Steelers and Broncos don't think these guys are average talents. They were drafted close enough to Gio and to teams looking for workhorses. No issue with anyone taking them over Gio for those reasons.
Continuing...
Agreed. I'm not a college talent evaluator, and I make no pretense about it. The #1 variable in terms of how I rank a player is draft position. I'll adjust from there, of course- obviously the NFL and I have different needs and priorities, and I'll factor situation into account- but it's not unexpected to see huge swings in my thoughts and feelings on a player from before the draft to after.Concept Coop said:
1.09 C. Patterson WR Vikings
Manuel is being regularly underdrafted, which is odd, considering he was the only QB taken in the first round and is likely to add points on the ground.
Didnt Gore and AP tear up their knees too? They have had pretty relevant fantasy seasons since then.
I agree. He's a prime target of mine in the late 2nd. I just saw a draft where freaking Nassib got picked over him.
I'm with you there. He's okay, but nothing amazing. I think he goes high because he was the first RB drafted, he can catch passes, and he landed on a team with a weak starter.
Geographical region is only part of the story. Broad collateral damage to all important knee connectors is...it's basically irrecoverable from a professional sports perspective. He will never be the same, and improvement will be measured by how many/how few setbacks he endures. This NFL stint is a great human interest story and the hope you win the lottery with a miracle of modern medicine. Good luck with that, I'll pass and take the 6th rated receiver, thanks.
I'd take Bell over him but that's it but honestly to me it's close between Bell, Gio, Lacy and Ball. I don't share your opinion that he'll always be a committee back and would never be used in short yardage situations. There are no backs in this draft as explosive as Spiller.Also to answer the question on what's his upside. Just so we are on the same page I consider upside to be more or less his best case type scenario, not a prediction. I'd say he's got Brian Westbrook upside, to me that's his closest comp but I see some McCoy to his game as well. One of his best assets is what he offers as a receiver.
I go back and forth on him, honestly. At times he looks like LeSean McCoy - his upside - and at times he looks like Jaquizz Rodgers. I think he's in the mix for first back taken this year, due to the very weak class, but am not sold on him being a longterm starter in the NFL yet.
2.05 - Randle, Joseph DAL RB
I've seen him in the mid-2nd in all 4 of my drafts; and in every single one there were 3-4 guys I'd rather have over him. I think he is a late 2nd, but often people will take him sooner than expected because he's a RB (especially Murray owners).
3.06 - Ogletree, Alec STL LB
This seems insane to me. Davis was the 6th RB off the board in the NFL draft, a day two pick. He landed on a team where he seems to be the clear backup in one of the most RB-friendly systems on the planet. I get that there's a lot of "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" surrounding him, but his measurables are very impressive, and the Chiefs obviously had enough faith in him to sink a 3rd round pick despite glaring needs across their entire roster. There's no way he should be going in the 5th round. There's no way he should be the 14th RB off the board, behind guys like Rex Burkhead (a 6th round pick and the 16th RB taken in the draft) or Mike James (another 6th round pick, the 15th RB taken, and stuck behind Doug Martin for the duration of his rookie contract). Even if you think Knile Davis is overrated, it's worth taking him much higher than that just on the off chance that you're wrong.
Looks a little misleading since there were 13 defensive players taken before him. But even 37th overall sounds a bit low for Davis. I at least would have taken him before Burkhead for certain.
I'm not a Knile fan by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm surprised by how far he's been falling in my drafts. I would've thought people would be lining up to reach for the height/weight/speed upside, but he's routinely been available in the third round of my 12 team leagues. Very odd considering that people are spending first round picks on Franklin and Lattimore, and second round picks on Stacy. Even Gillislee and Murray are going ahead of him sometimes. Too many people drafting for opportunity and looking for the immediate home run.
It's tough to understand so many far lesser talents in front of him, but do you really want to clog your roster up for years while hoping Charles gets injured? Perhaps into turns into more a timeshare like in the Thomas Jones days but I see that as his upside barring a Charles injury.
