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Post Your 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft (1 Viewer)

Two fairly recent ones. Identical format. 12 team ppr. Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE.

1.01 1. Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR ® Sat May 11 8:55:09 a.m. ET 2013 1.02 2. Austin, Tavon STL WR ® Sat May 11 9:18:42 a.m. ET 2013 1.03 3. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ® Sat May 11 9:44:26 a.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Sat May 11 8:54:13 a.m. CT 2013) 1.04 4. Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ® Sat May 11 10:24:43 a.m. ET 2013 1.05 5. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB ® Sat May 11 10:37:04 a.m. ET 2013 1.06 6. Hunter, Justin TEN WR ® Sat May 11 11:41:24 a.m. ET 2013 1.07 7. Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ® Sat May 11 1:42:21 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Sat May 11 1:42:55 p.m. ET 2013) 1.08 8. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB ® Sat May 11 1:46:28 p.m. ET 2013 1.09 9. Ball, Montee DEN RB ® Sat May 11 1:50:29 p.m. ET 2013 1.10 10. Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB ® Sat May 11 1:54:39 p.m. ET 2013 . 1.11 11. Michael, Christine SEA RB ® Sat May 11 2:37:19 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Sat May 11 4:48:29 p.m. ET 2013) 1.12 12. Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB ® Sat May 11 2:38:41 p.m. ET 2013 Unexpected 1.13 13. Allen, Keenan SDC WR ® Sat May 11 9:38:06 p.m. ET 2013 2.01 14. Wheaton, Markus PIT WR ® Sun May 12 12:22:27 a.m. ET 2013 2.02 15. Woods, Robert BUF WR ® Sun May 12 12:22:28 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List . (Comments Added Sun May 12 10:51:45 a.m. ET 2013) 2.03 16. Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR ® Sun May 12 5:58:13 a.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Sun May 12 6:33:32 a.m. ET 2013) 2.04 17. Stacy, Zac STL RB ® Sun May 12 8:07:48 a.m. ET 2013 2.05 18. Dobson, Aaron NEP WR ® Sun May 12 9:08:13 a.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Mon May 13 10:59:14 a.m. ET 2013) 2.06 19. Manuel, E.J. BUF QB ® Sun May 12 9:36:46 a.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Mon May 13 10:59:16 a.m. ET 2013) 2.07 20. Harper, Chris SEA WR ® Sun May 12 1:24:02 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Sun May 12 1:27:11 p.m. ET 2013) 2.08 21. Johnson, Charles GBP WR ® Sun May 12 1:26:57 p.m. ET 2013 WR11 2.09 22. Boyce, Josh NEP WR ® Sun May 12 2:14:32 p.m. ET 2013 Love this kid 2.10 23. Ertz, Zach PHI TE ® Sun May 12 4:16:29 p.m. ET 2013 Also looking to trade my 3rd + 4th to move up a bit in the 3rd if anyone is interested. 2.11 24. Smith, Geno NYJ QB ® Sun May 12 5:14:07 p.m. ET 2013 3.01 25. Davis, Knile KCC RB ® Sun May 12 10:33:56 p.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Sun May 12 11:31:50 p.m. CT 2013) 3.02 26. Kelce, Travis KCC TE ® Sun May 12 10:34:18 p.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Sun May 12 11:31:41 p.m. CT 2013) 3.03 27. Williams, Terrance DAL WR ® Mon May 13 9:35:44 a.m. ET 2013 3.04 28. Murray, Latavius OAK RB ® Mon May 13 9:35:45 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List (Comments Added Mon May 13 9:31:23 a.m. CT 2013) 3.05 29. Patton, Quinton SFO WR ® Mon May 13 10:40:00 a.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Mon May 13 10:59:19 a.m. ET 2013) 3.06 30. Reed, Jordan WAS TE ® Mon May 13 10:52:25 a.m. ET 2013 3.07 31. Barkley, Matt PHI QB ® Mon May 13 10:52:26 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List Meh. (Comments Added Mon May 13 3:13:38 p.m. ET 2013) 3.08 32. Bailey, Stedman STL WR ® Mon May 13 10:56:32 a.m. ET 2013 3.09 33. Wilson, Marquess CHI WR ® Mon May 13 11:06:46 a.m. ET 2013 3.10 34. Robinson, Denard JAC RB ® Mon May 13 12:50:04 p.m. ET 2013 . 3.11 35. Escobar, Gavin DAL TE ® Mon May 13 3:59:57 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Mon May 13 4:00:45 p.m. ET 2013) 3.12 36. Harrison, Mark CHI WR ® Mon May 13 4:17:47 p.m. ET 2013 4.01 37. Gillislee, Mike MIA RB ® Mon May 13 4:52:13 p.m. ET 2013 4.02 38. Randle, Joseph DAL RB ® Mon May 13 8:38:05 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Mon May 13 8:40:21 p.m. ET 2013) 4.03 39. Ellington, Andre ARI RB ® Mon May 13 10:24:18 p.m. ET 2013 4.04 40. Wilson, Tyler OAK QB ® Mon May 13 11:01:18 p.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Tue May 14 8:48:34 a.m. ET 2013) 4.05 41. Taylor, Stepfan ARI RB ® Tue May 14 12:15:32 a.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Tue May 14 12:20:56 a.m. ET 2013) 4.06 42. Goodwin, Marquise BUF WR ® Tue May 14 2:34:49 a.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Tue May 14 11:01:03 a.m. CT 2013) 4.07 43. McDonald, Vance SFO TE ® Tue May 14 2:35:20 a.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Tue May 14 11:01:07 a.m. CT 2013) 4.08 44. Stills, Kenny NOS WR ® Tue May 14 2:44:41 a.m. ET 2013 . 4.09 45. Barner, Kenjon CAR RB ® Tue May 14 2:59:36 a.m. ET 2013 . 4.10 46. Timer Expired Tue May 14 2:00:18 p.m. ET 2013 Timer Expired 4.11 47. Willson, Luke SEA TE ® Tue May 14 2:10:05 p.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Wed May 15 7:09:31 a.m. ET 2013) 1.01 1. Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR ® Sat May 4 9:37:21 a.m. ET 2013 1.02 2. Austin, Tavon STL WR ® Sat May 4 9:37:22 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 1.03 3. Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ® Sat May 4 9:37:22 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 1.04 4. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ® Sat May 4 10:01:19 a.m. ET 2013 Wow, can't believe Gio is still here and I need an RB bad. I'll take it. 1.05 5. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB ® Sat May 4 12:39:16 p.m. ET 2013 1.06 6. Ball, Montee DEN RB ® Sat May 4 12:39:17 p.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 1.07 7. Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ® Sat May 4 1:09:43 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Sat May 4 1:32:12 p.m. ET 2013) 1.08 8. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB ® Sat May 4 1:17:03 p.m. ET 2013 Nice 1.09 9. Hunter, Justin TEN WR ® Sat May 4 1:17:51 p.m. ET 2013 1.10 10. Allen, Keenan SDC WR ® Sat May 4 1:23:50 p.m. ET 2013 Surprised by this draft already. Hopkins to 7 Lacy to 8. Wow. (Comments Added Sat May 4 1:36:14 p.m. ET 2013) 1.11 11. Wheaton, Markus PIT WR ® Sat May 4 1:44:21 p.m. ET 2013 1.12 12. Woods, Robert BUF WR ® Sat May 4 1:44:22 p.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 2.01 13. Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB ® Sat May 4 2:45:56 p.m. ET 2013 What the hell... 2.02 14. Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB ® Sat May 4 2:55:37 p.m. ET 2013 2.03 15. Michael, Christine SEA RB ® Sat May 4 3:01:04 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Sat May 4 3:01:38 p.m. ET 2013) 2.04 16. Boyce, Josh NEP WR ® Sat May 4 3:01:20 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Sat May 4 3:01:41 p.m. ET 2013) 2.05 17. Stacy, Zac STL RB ® Sat May 4 3:33:57 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Sat May 4 10:46:39 p.m. ET 2013) 2.06 18. Manuel, E.J. BUF QB ® Sat May 4 4:10:41 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Sat May 4 10:46:43 p.m. ET 2013) 2.07 19. Dobson, Aaron NEP WR ® Sat May 4 5:35:01 p.m. ET 2013 If this was your target guys, feel free to send offers. (Comments Added Sat May 4 5:44:04 p.m. ET 2013) 2.08 20. Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR ® Sat May 4 5:44:00 p.m. ET 2013 2.09 21. Kelce, Travis KCC TE ® Sat May 4 5:53:29 p.m. ET 2013 2.10 22. Harper, Chris SEA WR ® Sat May 4 7:26:18 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Mon May 6 6:26:42 p.m. ET 2013) 2.11 23. Wilson, Marquess CHI WR ® Sat May 4 8:33:45 p.m. ET 2013 Go Cougs! (Comments Added Tue May 7 10:24:08 p.m. PT 2013) 2.12 24. Reed, Jordan WAS TE ® Sat May 4 11:26:58 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Sat May 4 11:29:17 p.m. ET 2013) 3.01 25. Murray, Latavius OAK RB ® Sat May 4 11:27:23 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Sat May 4 11:29:22 p.m. ET 2013) 3.02 26. Bailey, Stedman STL WR ® Sat May 4 11:36:09 p.m. ET 2013 3.03 27. Patton, Quinton SFO WR ® Sun May 5 1:09:00 a.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Sun May 5 8:54:12 a.m. CT 2013) 3.04 28. Williams, Terrance DAL WR ® Sun May 5 8:49:21 a.m. ET 2013 I like the potential in 1-2 yrs. 3.05 29. Smith, Geno NYJ QB ® Sun May 5 3:14:31 p.m. ET 2013 3.06 30. Ellington, Andre ARI RB ® Sun May 5 3:44:20 p.m. ET 2013 3.07 31. Ertz, Zach PHI TE ® Sun May 5 4:54:15 p.m. ET 2013 Never seen Ertz in the late third before...I can wait. 3.08 32. Davis, Knile KCC RB ® Sun May 5 8:26:15 p.m. ET 2013 3.09 33. Gillislee, Mike MIA RB ® Sun May 5 10:47:53 p.m. ET 2013 3.10 34. Stills, Kenny NOS WR ® Mon May 6 8:53:04 a.m. ET 2013 Lot of upside if he sticks and Brees has a few years left in him. 3.11 35. Barkley, Matt PHI QB ® Mon May 6 8:53:05 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List Maybe he'll be my Kirk Cousins? (Comments Added Tue May 7 10:23:12 p.m. PT 2013) 4.01 36. Johnson, Charles GBP WR ® Mon May 6 10:54:24 a.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Thu May 9 10:29:53 p.m. ET 2013) 4.02 37. Randle, Joseph DAL RB ® Mon May 6 11:44:47 a.m. ET 2013 (Comments Added Mon May 6 2:15:15 p.m. CT 2013) 4.03 38. Williams, Kerwynn IND RB ® Mon May 6 12:05:53 p.m. ET 2013 The other two late RBs I targeted already gone, I'll take my 3rd choice. (Comments Added Mon May 6 1:20:17 p.m. ET 2013) 4.04 39. Mellette, Aaron BAL WR ® Mon May 6 12:10:38 p.m. ET 2013 Not much in front of him, why not. 4.05 40. Timer Expired Mon May 6 6:15:06 p.m. ET 2013 Timer Expired 4.06 41. Taylor, Stepfan ARI RB ® Mon May 6 6:26:05 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Mon May 6 6:26:37 p.m. ET 2013) 4.07 42. Escobar, Gavin DAL TE ® Mon May 6 6:26:16 p.m. ET 2013 . (Comments Added Mon May 6 6:26:50 p.m. ET 2013) 4.08 43. Robinson, Denard JAC RB ® Mon May 6 9:15:44 p.m. ET 2013 4.09 44. Young, Titus FA WR Tue May 7 2:13:20 a.m. ET 2013 4.10 45. Swope, Ryan ARI WR ® Tue May 7 2:13:21 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 4.11 46. McDonald, Vance SFO TE ® Wed May 8 1:07:45 a.m. ET 2013 Timer Expired Replacement pick made by Commissioner 4.12 47. Goodwin, Marquise BUF WR ® Wed May 8 1:00:13 a.m. ET 2013 Timer Expired Replacement pick made by Commissioner
 
Adam Harstad said:
Maybe you guys haven't noticed but D'rick Rogers would have been a 2nd round pick had he controlled his off field issues. I'd rather have him than woods.
If Rodgers didn't have the biggest laundry list of red flags of any receiver in the draft, then maybe he'd have gone in the top 10 picks of the 2nd round... which is where Woods actually did go.
He would have been a first round pick if he controlled his off field issues. He would have been a second round pick if he owned up to his off field issues.

EV(Rogers) = 1% * 1m + 99% * 0

EV(Woods) = 50% * 100 + 50% * 10

I understand your MO to follow draft spot pretty closely but I think you have to take a step back and realize why players were drafted where they were. Some players are taken higher for ST. Some players are taken higher because they fill a need and appear to be plug and play. Some players drop for reasons IMO fantasy players shouldn't care about.

How much have you dropped Josh Gordon for being kicked out of schools for marijuana use. How much have you dropped Denarius Moore for actually being involved in the bar fight where Rogers got arrested trying to get the hell out.

If Josh Gordon is put through the rigors of the combine, where do you think he is taken.

Yes it is a huge risk and you could be blowing a 2nd round pick on a player that is droppable in August, but I agree with eaglesfan he is worth more than Woods. How many times do we have to draft Golden Tate before we don't draft him anymore.

 
I wouldn't take Rodgers in the first round primarily because his adp places him late second round. But he is a vary talented player. If he stays out of trouble he could be WR1 in Buffalo at some point in the near future. Definitely worth a late 2nd or 3rd round pick if you have room to roster him..

 
Completed rookie draft from Saturday night: http://football8.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=13882&O=17

WARNING: Some picks may cause extreme stomach irritation and vomitting.
A little weird in the 2nd on up but I didn't see anything awful until Gillislee at 1.13.
Yeah, that and Barkley being the first QB off the board were really the only things I noticed. I have looked through every draft posted in this thread and the consensus is there's no consensus. This is a weird year, everyone seems to be going off their gut or pre-draft opinion of players. That's why we play the game, right?

 
I wouldn't take Rodgers in the first round primarily because his adp places him late second round. But he is a vary talented player. If he stays out of trouble he could be WR1 in Buffalo at some point in the near future. Definitely worth a late 2nd or 3rd round pick if you have room to roster him..
That's the point. The guy could've been had much later along with another player where he was selected.

I realize the kid has talent, but lots of guys with 10 cent heads don't do much in the NFL

 
Maybe you guys haven't noticed but D'rick Rogers would have been a 2nd round pick had he controlled his off field issues. I'd rather have him than woods.
If Rodgers didn't have the biggest laundry list of red flags of any receiver in the draft, then maybe he'd have gone in the top 10 picks of the 2nd round... which is where Woods actually did go.
He would have been a first round pick if he controlled his off field issues. He would have been a second round pick if he owned up to his off field issues.

EV(Rogers) = 1% * 1m + 99% * 0

EV(Woods) = 50% * 100 + 50% * 10

I understand your MO to follow draft spot pretty closely but I think you have to take a step back and realize why players were drafted where they were. Some players are taken higher for ST. Some players are taken higher because they fill a need and appear to be plug and play. Some players drop for reasons IMO fantasy players shouldn't care about.

How much have you dropped Josh Gordon for being kicked out of schools for marijuana use. How much have you dropped Denarius Moore for actually being involved in the bar fight where Rogers got arrested trying to get the hell out.

If Josh Gordon is put through the rigors of the combine, where do you think he is taken.

Yes it is a huge risk and you could be blowing a 2nd round pick on a player that is droppable in August, but I agree with eaglesfan he is worth more than Woods. How many times do we have to draft Golden Tate before we don't draft him anymore.
How many times do we have to draft Lawrence Phillips and Maurice Clarett before we don't draft them anymore?

 
CR69 said:
cstu said:
Completed rookie draft from Saturday night: http://football8.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=13882&O=17

WARNING: Some picks may cause extreme stomach irritation and vomitting.
A little weird in the 2nd on up but I didn't see anything awful until Gillislee at 1.13.
Yeah, that and Barkley being the first QB off the board were really the only things I noticed. I have looked through every draft posted in this thread and the consensus is there's no consensus. This is a weird year, everyone seems to be going off their gut or pre-draft opinion of players. That's why we play the game, right?
It just shows the group-think that happens with us spending our time here.

 
12 team ppr, QB, 2RB, 2 WR, TE, K, RB/WR/TE flex1.11 11. Deep 13 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR ® Tue May 7 11:45:19 a.m. CT 2013 if his head is on straight, he could be the best wr in this draft. (Comments

2.06 19. gametymerz Woods, Robert BUF WR ® Thu May 9 1:42:26 p.m. CT 2013
Can someone explain these two picks to me?
For what it's worth, I took Woods with the 2.07 and just took Rogers with the 4.13.

16 Team, salary, contract, idp, 45 man rosters.

At 4.13, I had to take him..... right?

 
12 team ppr, QB, 2RB, 2 WR, TE, K, RB/WR/TE flex1.11 11. Deep 13 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR ® Tue May 7 11:45:19 a.m. CT 2013 if his head is on straight, he could be the best wr in this draft. (Comments 2.06 19. gametymerz Woods, Robert BUF WR ® Thu May 9 1:42:26 p.m. CT 2013
Can someone explain these two picks to me?
For what it's worth, I took Woods with the 2.07 and just took Rogers with the 4.13. 16 Team, salary, contract, idp, 45 man rosters. At 4.13, I had to take him..... right?
16 teams hell yeah that's great at 4.13
 
Maybe you guys haven't noticed but D'rick Rogers would have been a 2nd round pick had he controlled his off field issues. I'd rather have him than woods.
If Rodgers didn't have the biggest laundry list of red flags of any receiver in the draft, then maybe he'd have gone in the top 10 picks of the 2nd round... which is where Woods actually did go.
He would have been a first round pick if he controlled his off field issues. He would have been a second round pick if he owned up to his off field issues. EV(Rogers) = 1% * 1m + 99% * 0EV(Woods) = 50% * 100 + 50% * 10 I understand your MO to follow draft spot pretty closely but I think you have to take a step back and realize why players were drafted where they were. Some players are taken higher for ST. Some players are taken higher because they fill a need and appear to be plug and play. Some players drop for reasons IMO fantasy players shouldn't care about. How much have you dropped Josh Gordon for being kicked out of schools for marijuana use. How much have you dropped Denarius Moore for actually being involved in the bar fight where Rogers got arrested trying to get the hell out. If Josh Gordon is put through the rigors of the combine, where do you think he is taken. Yes it is a huge risk and you could be blowing a 2nd round pick on a player that is droppable in August, but I agree with eaglesfan he is worth more than Woods. How many times do we have to draft Golden Tate before we don't draft him anymore.
I understand the bolded. I wrote about that very point in the "rookie ranking philosophy" article. I made that point in the Jordan Reed thread- I love TEs who were drafted highly despite being woeful blockers, because blocking matters much more to NFL teams than to me as a fantasy owner. It's why I don't have Rodgers unranked. The problem I run into is when we start talking about how it's a foregone conclusion that a very high second round pick is a "mediocre talent" (your words) with a ceiling one ten thousandth as high as some UFA (your numbers). I happen to not really like Allen, but an NFL team isn't spending a high second round pick on a guy who they think is a mediocre receiver with a low ceiling, so it becomes a question of whether I think I'm smarter than NFL teams. I do not. And all this speculation about where Rodgers would have been drafted is just that- pure speculation. It's all counterfactuals and suppositions. There's a good chance you're right. There's also a non-trivial chance you're not. I keenly remember a time when Michael Crabtree, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, and Jordy Nelson were all viewed as low-ceiling receivers, just to list a handful of other top-40 draft picks. I try not to make a habit of writing off very high draft picks out of hand.
 
12 team ppr, QB, 2RB, 2 WR, TE, K, RB/WR/TE flex1.11 11. Deep 13 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR ® Tue May 7 11:45:19 a.m. CT 2013 if his head is on straight, he could be the best wr in this draft. (Comments 2.06 19. gametymerz Woods, Robert BUF WR ® Thu May 9 1:42:26 p.m. CT 2013
Can someone explain these two picks to me?
For what it's worth, I took Woods with the 2.07 and just took Rogers with the 4.13. 16 Team, salary, contract, idp, 45 man rosters. At 4.13, I had to take him..... right?
16 teams hell yeah that's great at 4.13
That was an attempt at sarcasm. I couldn't believe he dropped that far, i was trying to move up to earlier in the 4th, but didn't have much to trade.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The problem I run into is when we start talking about how it's a foregone conclusion that a very high second round pick is a "mediocre talent" (your words) with a ceiling one ten thousandth as high as some UFA (your numbers). I happen to not really like Allen, but an NFL team isn't spending a high second round pick on a guy who they think is a mediocre receiver with a low ceiling, so it becomes a question of whether I think I'm smarter than NFL teams.
I think the Bills pick is an indication of them trying hard to find a top 64 WR. The Bills had a blackhole beside Stevie Johnson and wanted to make sure they got someone who would contribute. In fantasy we don't really care about a top 64 WR. Top 64 WRs are throw ins. To an NFL team with no quality receivers a top 64 WR is still worth 5 years for 30m. He is still worth a 2nd round pick.

From the NFL's standpoint Woods' EV is 50%*6m + 50%*3m and Rogers' EV is 1%*15m + 99%*0. Woods' NFL EV is much higher because the value the NFL places on his talent is much higher than we do.

In fantasy we only care about top 36 WR. Further we put a significant premium on top 5 WR. The value curve is more cliff-like.

I'm struggling with your examples of past "low upside" WRs. The names you're looking for are Gaffney, Robiskie, and Smith.

 
The problem I run into is when we start talking about how it's a foregone conclusion that a very high second round pick is a "mediocre talent" (your words) with a ceiling one ten thousandth as high as some UFA (your numbers). I happen to not really like Allen, but an NFL team isn't spending a high second round pick on a guy who they think is a mediocre receiver with a low ceiling, so it becomes a question of whether I think I'm smarter than NFL teams.
I think the Bills pick is an indication of them trying hard to find a top 64 WR. The Bills had a blackhole beside Stevie Johnson and wanted to make sure they got someone who would contribute. In fantasy we don't really care about a top 64 WR. Top 64 WRs are throw ins. To an NFL team with no quality receivers a top 64 WR is still worth 5 years for 30m. He is still worth a 2nd round pick. From the NFL's standpoint Woods' EV is 50%*6m + 50%*3m and Rogers' EV is 1%*15m + 99%*0. Woods' NFL EV is much higher because the value the NFL places on his talent is much higher than we do. In fantasy we only care about top 36 WR. Further we put a significant premium on top 5 WR. The value curve is more cliff-like. I'm struggling with your examples of past "low upside" WRs. The names you're looking for are Gaffney, Robiskie, and Smith.
Roddy White was once consigned to the dustbin of history along with that trio. I heard many serious people suggest that his skillset made him a quality NFL #2, but not a real #1 (ironically, I've also heard people compare Hopkins to White and then say that, unlike White, Hopkins lacks #1 upside).After his third and fourth seasons, Andre Johnson was viewed similarly to Dwayne Bowe today, perhaps even a bit less charitably. Granted, I don't think anyone viewed him as a mediocre talent, but he was definitely seen as a mediocre fantasy asset with a very low ceiling.Crabtree was viewed as a low-ceiling bust as recently as six months ago, before Kaepernick burst onto the scene. Nelson was viewed as a JAG struggling to finish higher than fourth on Green Bay's depth chart. Any assumptions about either player's ceiling was radically off base. Reggie Wayne was another guy who for years early in his career was viewed as nothing more than an NFL #2. Now he's busy making a case for the Hall of Fame. Maybe you possess some sort of skill for telling the Steve Smith Norths from the Reggie Waynes, but the fantasy community at large has a pretty abysmal track record at that so far. I'm pretty sure that their respective franchises viewed Gaffney, Robiskie, and Smith North as busts, as evidenced by the fact that not a single one of those receivers earned a single contract extension. I'm pretty sure that Buffalo thinks that Robert Woods is better than that trio, or else they wouldn't have spent a 2nd on him. Teams don't spend high seconds on guys they don't think are good enough to earn contract extensions. Sometimes NFL franchises are wrong, but I'm not a smart enough guy to say that I have some sort of magical ability to consistently tell when franchises are overvaluing or undervaluing players. The franchises are smarter than me, they invest a lot more resources than me, and they have a much more vested interest in getting it right. I understand that the fantasy owner has different priorities than the NFL franchise, but we aren't talking about a receiver who also returns kicks vs. a poor blocker chosen a round and a half later. We're talking about a high second round draft pick vs. a guy all 32 NFL franchises clearly and unequivocally stated was not even worth drafting. This isn't Bryant Johnson and Anquan Boldin going a round apart, or Ridley and Vereen going a round apart, or Gronk/Hernandez or Lacy/Franklin. Rogers didn't even get a big signing bonus for a UFA, which means teams weren't even bidding for him. The discrepancy between fantasy value and NFL value is not a gaping enough chasm to overcome a divide like that, a divide between a high 2nd rounder and a guy who barely drew any league interest at all.
 
There are simple height/weight/speed reasons to doubt that Woods will ever be an elite NFL receiver. He doesn't have any outstanding or even good physical traits.

Roddy White is a very good athlete. Ran 4.45 and had a 10'6" broad jump (very good) and a 41" vertical leap (insanely good).

Andre Johnson is one of the biggest height/weight/speed freaks at WR in the league. 29.5 BMI (higher than any other relevant FF receiver) yet still ran low 4.4 in the 40 and jumped 10'9" in the broad jump and 41" in the vertical. Very rare stuff. There are only a few guys in the league with that kind of tool set. Add in the top 3 overall draft slot and 1100 yards in his sophomore NFL season and he's probably the last guy who would have ever been considered a mediocre talent.

Crabtree never worked out before the draft, so we don't know how he would've tested, but if nothing else he's got the size. On the very high end of the scale with a 28.1 BMI. He also had the top 10 overall draft pick thing going for him and the insanely productive college career. Prior to Blackmon he was the only two-time Biletnikoff Award winner. And unlike the Heisman, the Biletnikoff is an honor that actually has somewhat decent predictive value for the NFL.

Woods is not similar to these guys. He's not all that big. Not all that explosive. I think he looks like a solid complementary receiver and probably nothing more.

NFL draft position is correlated with FF success, but NFL teams are not drafting FF teams. Just because a team like Houston or Buffalo spends a high pick on a player like Hopkins or Woods doesn't mean they think he's a future #1 WR. If you've got a glaring hole at WR2 and you see a solid, but unspectacular player who can slot into that position then he might be worth the cost to your NFL team, even if he never becomes the next great thing. An obvious example is Jacksonville taking Ace Sanders in the early 4th round. He's never going to be a frontline receiver, but he can do two jobs (slot WR and punt returner) at a high enough level to justify the investment.

As far as Rogers/Woods goes, the fact that Rogers went undrafted tells me that teams had severe concerns about his character/off-field stuff. However, it's also clear that he possesses a set of physical tools that Woods simply lacks. So while Rogers is far more likely to flop outright, he probably has a higher chance of becoming a difference-maker.

 
You're mixing what we thought about players after they struggled for a year or two with what we thought about them going into the draft. The fact that Crabtree was taken 1.1 in rookie drafts over 1st round RBs is strong evidence that a good portion of the community believed in his fantasy upside coming into the league. Yes, people jumped ship after a couple years of relative futility but that is beside the point. I believe opinions on White also morphed after his career started. In 2005, I think White was viewed as a speed receiver.

You're also mixing the notion of fantasy WR2 upside and NFL WR2 upside. Yes we can look at a guy like Dwayne Bowe and say he's never going to be a fantasy WR1 again. (Although Bowe disagreed with that publicly a few days ago.) Yes we clearly devalue a player significantly for not having a chance to be top 5 again. But the NFL doesn't. The NFL is happy with top 15. They paid Bowe and Wallace handsomely for that upside this offseason.

The bar of earning that contract extension and completing the deal is a pretty high one, actually. One usually reserved for fantasy WR1s not NFL WR1s. Bowe did, but Wallace didn't. DeSean did, but Vincent Jackson didn't. If a player doesn't earn a contact extension with his original team it is due to economics not merely merit. I am pretty sure the Bills staff didn't put much thought into Woods earning a contract extension because their jobs are not guaranteed through his rookie contract. Players do earn contract extensions and significant FA deals for being reliably mediocre. The NFL clearly values Hartline, Gibson, Sanders, etc. If Woods can be an NFL WR2 then he is good value at 4y 6m compared to someone like Hartline.

 
Where is Rogers' value compared to Kendall Wright, in your opinion? Or Hopkins?

Woods is a major threat to amass a high number of targets and receptions, eventually. He likely doesn’t have top 10 fantasy potential, but that is the only ceiling I am willing to place on him right now. I’m not suggesting it likely that he’s ever a low end WR1; but in PPR leagues, I can certainly see it.

 
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There are simple height/weight/speed reasons to doubt that Woods will ever be an elite NFL receiver. He doesn't have any outstanding or even good physical traits.

Roddy White is a very good athlete. Ran 4.45 and had a 10'6" broad jump (very good) and a 41" vertical leap (insanely good).

Andre Johnson is one of the biggest height/weight/speed freaks at WR in the league. 29.5 BMI (higher than any other relevant FF receiver) yet still ran low 4.4 in the 40 and jumped 10'9" in the broad jump and 41" in the vertical. Very rare stuff. There are only a few guys in the league with that kind of tool set. Add in the top 3 overall draft slot and 1100 yards in his sophomore NFL season and he's probably the last guy who would have ever been considered a mediocre talent.

Crabtree never worked out before the draft, so we don't know how he would've tested, but if nothing else he's got the size. On the very high end of the scale with a 28.1 BMI. He also had the top 10 overall draft pick thing going for him and the insanely productive college career. Prior to Blackmon he was the only two-time Biletnikoff Award winner. And unlike the Heisman, the Biletnikoff is an honor that actually has somewhat decent predictive value for the NFL.

Woods is not similar to these guys. He's not all that big. Not all that explosive. I think he looks like a solid complementary receiver and probably nothing more.

NFL draft position is correlated with FF success, but NFL teams are not drafting FF teams. Just because a team like Houston or Buffalo spends a high pick on a player like Hopkins or Woods doesn't mean they think he's a future #1 WR. If you've got a glaring hole at WR2 and you see a solid, but unspectacular player who can slot into that position then he might be worth the cost to your NFL team, even if he never becomes the next great thing. An obvious example is Jacksonville taking Ace Sanders in the early 4th round. He's never going to be a frontline receiver, but he can do two jobs (slot WR and punt returner) at a high enough level to justify the investment.

As far as Rogers/Woods goes, the fact that Rogers went undrafted tells me that teams had severe concerns about his character/off-field stuff. However, it's also clear that he possesses a set of physical tools that Woods simply lacks. So while Rogers is far more likely to flop outright, he probably has a higher chance of becoming a difference-maker.
keep doubting Woods :popcorn: Marvin Harrison didn't have good "physical traits" either. You are discounting the importance of Woods' burst in and out of his breaks. He may not have long speed, but he has plenty of burst when he runs his routes. He runs perfect routes and has strong hands. Keep doubting....

 
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I don't really want to wade into the argument side of this Woods discussion but just my knee-jerk reaction on him: He really does nothing for me as a fantasy owner. He just doesn't make me think that he is anything beyond his fantasy drafted situation and situations change a lot and quickly and leave only the "talent" behind.

I think Rogers is the guy to swing for the fences on there. He CLEARLY could be a guy who gets outright cut by the time August is here but, ability-wise, he is the one guy they drafted that could be running all up and down that field like a healthy Kenny Britt or making an every-series impact like Dwayne Bowe did a few years ago.

I think if Woods was drafted to a lot of other teams, he would be a 3rd tier WR in rookie drafts, at best but because he landed in Buffalo and because his draft profile kind of reads the way it does, everyone tends to boost him.

 
Where is Rogers' value compared to Kendall Wright, in your opinion? Or Hopkins?

Woods is a major threat to amass a high number of targets and receptions, eventually. He likely doesn’t have top 10 fantasy potential, but that is the only ceiling I am willing to place on him right now. I’m not suggesting it likely that he’s ever a low end WR1; but in PPR leagues, I can certainly see it.
I fully expect other people to view Woods as a different guy than I do. If your argument is you like Woods, I can accept that. If you feel Buffalo will be a high volume offense that will inflate his stats, that is a fine argument. If you view him as a great talent you should draft him ahead of Rogers due to risk. That is a different discussion than how to account for NFL draft stock.

At the moment I don't own Wright or Hopkins anywhere. I like both players but am not as high on them as others are. I think they have WR1 or top15 upside in ideal situations, but neither are likely to be in ideal situations. They are both likely to be fantasy WR3s with mid-WR2 a reasonable optimistic projection. That is a completely different value proposition than a WR4/5 with optimistic being WR3. I would trade Rogers for either quite easily. I would add to Rogers to acquire either.

 
I just don't agree that he's not talented. He was a 5 star recruit who started as a freshman and dominated, even early on. At one point he looked like a potential top 15-20 draft pick. Despite his pedestrian physical attributes, he beat college DBs with regularity. He is the PAC10 leader in receptions in a season. Even going back to last year when Rogers was on the Vols roster – Woods was considered the better prospect. It wasn’t until this season when Lee exploded and the rest of the offense took a step back that Woods’ stock took a big tumble.

He gets open extremely well at the first two levels and does well in traffic. He’s not likely to be a top 10 option – that’s hard to do without special physical attributes. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t talented and won’t produce for his fantasy owners.

 
I fully expect other people to view Woods as a different guy than I do. If your argument is you like Woods, I can accept that. If you feel Buffalo will be a high volume offense that will inflate his stats, that is a fine argument. If you view him as a great talent you should draft him ahead of Rogers due to risk. That is a different discussion than how to account for NFL draft stock.

At the moment I don't own Wright or Hopkins anywhere. I like both players but am not as high on them as others are. I think they have WR1 or top15 upside in ideal situations, but neither are likely to be in ideal situations. They are both likely to be fantasy WR3s with mid-WR2 a reasonable optimistic projection. That is a completely different value proposition than a WR4/5 with optimistic being WR3. I would trade Rogers for either quite easily. I would add to Rogers to acquire either.
I think that's understandable. I personally just view him as closer to Wright and Hopkins than you seem to.

 
JohnnyU said:
keep doubting Woods :popcorn: Marvin Harrison didn't have good "physical traits" either. You are discounting the importance of Woods' burst in and out of his breaks. He may not have long speed, but he has plenty of burst when he runs his routes. He runs perfect routes and has strong hands. Keep doubting....
I am discounting it because it doesn't seem to be that important. I took a closer look at WR combine numbers this offseason and was surprised to find that success at the position hinges on elite physical talent to an even greater degree than it does at RB. I've posted this in a few threads already, but it might be worth posting again.

Here are the top receivers in the league right now and how they rate in terms of BMI/40/vertical/broad jump.

Andre Johnson - 29.5 (4.41 - 39" - 11'0")

Vincent Jackson - 28.9 (4.46 - 39" - 10'9")

Dez Bryant - 28.8 (4.52 - 38" - 11'1")

Victor Cruz - 28.3 (4.47 - 41.5" - 10'5")

Calvin Johnson - 28.3 (4.35 - 42.5" - 11'7")

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.3 - results not available

Hakeem Nicks - 28.3 (4.51, 36", ??)

Michael Crabtree - 28.1 - did not work out before the draft

Demaryius Thomas - 27.8 - did not work out before the draft

Julio Jones - 27.8 (4.34 - 38.5" - 11'3")

Brandon Marshall - 27.6 (4.52 - 37" - 10'0")

Roddy White - 27.2 (4.46 - 41" - 10'6")

Steve Smith - 27.2 (4.41 - 38.5" - 10'1")

Reggie Wayne - 26.9 (4.45 - 36" - ???)

Marques Colston - 26.9 (4.50 - 37" - 10'3")

Percy Harvin - 26.7 (4.39 - 37.5" - 10'1")

AJ Green - 26.0 (4.48 - 34.5" - 10'6")

There's a pretty narrow range of successful body types (26.0-29.5 BMI). What really stands out is that almost all of these guys had solid speed (they all ran 4.52 or better) and exceptional numbers in the jumping drills (the average vertical is about 37.5" and the average broad jump about 10'6"). For the sake of comparison, here's how Woods stacks up:

Robert Woods - 27.2 (4.51 - 33.5" - 9'9")

Everything there is average. With just average physical ability, he won't have any real edge over NFL corners.

Having said that, not every successful pro WR was a workout warrior. Anquan Boldin ran slow and had bad jump numbers. Even so, he still had an elite trait. 28.9 BMI, which is near the top of the list. Chad Johnson had bad numbers across the board. He's an example of a guy who clearly had explosiveness and speed on the field, but for whatever reason didn't test well. By and large though, all of the elite WR1 types to enter the league within the past decade also had very good workout numbers. The guys who don't quite stack up like Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson, and Mike Williams are more of your system-dependent WR2 types. And that's what I think Woods will be. He can be a solid complementary player, but right off the bat his numbers make it really unlikely that he's going to reach the top level. That's also how I feel about Hopkins and Patton, who have similar qualities.

I think the upside in this WR class resides in players like Patterson, Hunter, Wheaton, Boyce, Harper, and Rogers. They aren't perfect prospects either and I can name a flaw with just about all of them, but based on their physical traits I think they have a higher probability of becoming #1 targets and not just supporting options.

 
I'm sitting at 1.09 in a PPR 2QB draft tonight. I am thinking Patterson just might slide to me. I might just have to swing for the fences on him. I own David Wilson and Andre Brown is in the draft pool too though so it might be a last minute decision.

 
EBF, on 22 May 2013 - 12:56, said:

JohnnyU said:
JohnnyU, on 22 May 2013 - 09:20, said:

keep doubting Woods :popcorn: Marvin Harrison didn't have good "physical traits" either. You are discounting the importance of Woods' burst in and out of his breaks. He may not have long speed, but he has plenty of burst when he runs his routes. He runs perfect routes and has strong hands. Keep doubting....
I am discounting it because it doesn't seem to be that important. I took a closer look at WR combine numbers this offseason and was surprised to find that success at the position hinges on elite physical talent to an even greater degree than it does at RB. I've posted this in a few threads already, but it might be worth posting again.Here are the top receivers in the league right now and how they rate in terms of BMI/40/vertical/broad jump.

Andre Johnson - 29.5 (4.41 - 39" - 11'0")

Vincent Jackson - 28.9 (4.46 - 39" - 10'9")

Dez Bryant - 28.8 (4.52 - 38" - 11'1")

Victor Cruz - 28.3 (4.47 - 41.5" - 10'5")

Calvin Johnson - 28.3 (4.35 - 42.5" - 11'7")

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.3 - results not available

Hakeem Nicks - 28.3 (4.51, 36", ??)

Michael Crabtree - 28.1 - did not work out before the draft

Demaryius Thomas - 27.8 - did not work out before the draft

Julio Jones - 27.8 (4.34 - 38.5" - 11'3")

Brandon Marshall - 27.6 (4.52 - 37" - 10'0")

Roddy White - 27.2 (4.46 - 41" - 10'6")

Steve Smith - 27.2 (4.41 - 38.5" - 10'1")

Reggie Wayne - 26.9 (4.45 - 36" - ???)

Marques Colston - 26.9 (4.50 - 37" - 10'3")

Percy Harvin - 26.7 (4.39 - 37.5" - 10'1")

AJ Green - 26.0 (4.48 - 34.5" - 10'6")

There's a pretty narrow range of successful body types (26.0-29.5 BMI). What really stands out is that almost all of these guys had solid speed (they all ran 4.52 or better) and exceptional numbers in the jumping drills (the average vertical is about 37.5" and the average broad jump about 10'6"). For the sake of comparison, here's how Woods stacks up:

Robert Woods - 27.2 (4.51 - 33.5" - 9'9")

Everything there is average. With just average physical ability, he won't have any real edge over NFL corners.

Having said that, not every successful pro WR was a workout warrior. Anquan Boldin ran slow and had bad jump numbers. Even so, he still had an elite trait. 28.9 BMI, which is near the top of the list. Chad Johnson had bad numbers across the board. He's an example of a guy who clearly had explosiveness and speed on the field, but for whatever reason didn't test well. By and large though, all of the elite WR1 types to enter the league within the past decade also had very good workout numbers. The guys who don't quite stack up like Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson, and Mike Williams are more of your system-dependent WR2 types. And that's what I think Woods will be. He can be a solid complementary player, but right off the bat his numbers make it really unlikely that he's going to reach the top level. That's also how I feel about Hopkins and Patton, who have similar qualities.

I think the upside in this WR class resides in players like Patterson, Hunter, Wheaton, Boyce, Harper, and Rogers. They aren't perfect prospects either and I can name a flaw with just about all of them, but based on their physical traits I think they have a higher probability of becoming #1 targets and not just supporting options.
There's more to being a successful WR #1 than BMI and being 6'3" 220 lbs. You worry about body type way too much. Woods has explosion getting in and out of his breaks during the route process. He has great hands, strong hands, and he seems to have a good football IQ. You are going to whiff on Woods.
 
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There's more to being a successful WR #1 than BMI. You worry about body type way too much. Woods has explosion getting in and out of his breaks during the route process. He has great hands, strong hands, and he seems to have a good football IQ. You are going to whiff on Woods.
You took him waaayyy too high in our Deep End draft last year and have dug in your heels about him ever since. The last few times you got testy with me and assured me that I would be wrong about a player was when you said Knile Davis was the best RB in the draft, Kendricks was a superstar, Crabtree would be a bust, Blackmon was a flop, and so on. At this point I'm not putting a lot of stock in your biases.

Woods is a good route runner. I commented on that after watching the receivers go through the drills at the combine. I thought he was one of the best performers out there along with Hopkins, Boyce, and a couple others. Here's the sticking point though: at the highest level of the game, merely being a fluid and efficient athlete isn't enough to dominate. The players who dominate in the NFL are the players who have all of those qualities, but also back it up with rare size/speed/burst. Andre Johnson and Demaryius Thomas are just as fluid and quick as Woods, but they're much bigger, faster, and explosive. In general, that's the blueprint of an elite pro WR.

Woods might end up being a good starter. He can potentially reach the level of guys like Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, and Jordy Nelson. If the situation breaks right for him, he could have some good seasons. I feel pretty comfortable saying hes' not the next big NFL superstar though. It's almost impossible to reach that level without having at least one exceptional quality out of: size, speed, explosiveness. Woods has none.

 
There's more to being a successful WR #1 than BMI. You worry about body type way too much. Woods has explosion getting in and out of his breaks during the route process. He has great hands, strong hands, and he seems to have a good football IQ. You are going to whiff on Woods.
You took him waaayyy too high in our Deep End draft last year and have dug in your heels about him ever since. The last few times you got testy with me and assured me that I would be wrong about a player was when you said Knile Davis was the best RB in the draft, Kendricks was a superstar, Crabtree would be a bust, Blackmon was a flop, and so on. At this point I'm not putting a lot of stock in your biases.

Woods is a good route runner. I commented on that after watching the receivers go through the drills at the combine. I thought he was one of the best performers out there along with Hopkins, Boyce, and a couple others. Here's the sticking point though: at the highest level of the game, merely being a fluid and efficient athlete isn't enough to dominate. The players who dominate in the NFL are the players who have all of those qualities, but also back it up with rare size/speed/burst. Andre Johnson and Demaryius Thomas are just as fluid and quick as Woods, but they're much bigger, faster, and explosive. In general, that's the blueprint of an elite pro WR.

Woods might end up being a good starter. He can potentially reach the level of guys like Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, and Jordy Nelson. If the situation breaks right for him, he could have some good seasons. I feel pretty comfortable saying hes' not the next big NFL superstar though. It's almost impossible to reach that level without having at least one exceptional quality out of: size, speed, explosiveness. Woods has none.
If you want to start comparing flops your resume is a lot longer than mine. You flip flop over players more than anyone I know. You thought Edwin Baker was the next coming. You also had Markus Wheaton as the #1 WR in the draft, then dropped him out of your top 15. You also thought James Hardy would be a stud and I said up front he would be a flop. You've whiffed on a LOT of players that you claim to be such an expert on. As for your comments about Knile Davis, he had a devastating injury that has lowered his value. Yes, we all miss on players such as Kendricks, but you come across like you're some kind of scout or something and quite frankly it hasn't translated into fantasy stardom one would expect.

 
Just finished our draft. 16 team, salary, contract, idp. 45 man roster. (my picks are in bold)

1.01 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB

1.02 Austin, Tavon STL WR

1.03 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB

1.04 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR

1.05 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR

1.06 Lacy, Eddie GBP RB

1.07 Ball, Montee DEN RB

1.08 Allen, Keenan SDC WR

1.09 Hunter, Justin TEN WR

1.10 Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB

1.11 Manuel, E.J. BUF QB

1.12 Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB

1.13 Brown, Arthur BAL LB

1.14 Eifert, Tyler CIN TE

1.15 Barner, Kenjon CAR RB

1.16 Jordan, Dion MIA DE

2.01 Stacy, Zac STL RB

2.02 Dobson, Aaron NEP WR

2.03 Wheaton, Markus PIT WR

2.04 Michael, Christine SEA RB

2.05 Jones, Jarvis PIT LB

2.06 Ansah, Ezekiel DET DE

2.07 Woods, Robert BUF WR

2.08 Kelce, Travis KCC TE

2.09 Ertz, Zach PHI TE

2.10 Cyprien, Johnathan JAC S

2.11 Bailey, Stedman STL WR

2.12 Smith, Geno NYJ QB

2.13 Randle, Joseph DAL RB

2.14 Minter, Kevin ARI LB

2.15 Gillislee, Mike MIA RB

2.16 Ogletree, Alec STL LB

3.01 Te'o, Manti SDC LB

3.02 Williams, Terrance DAL WR

3.03 Murray, Latavius OAK RB

3.04 Stills, Kenny NOS WR

3.05 Floyd, Sharrif MIN DT

3.06 Rhodes, Xavier MIN CB

3.07 Robinson, Denard JAC RB

3.08 Vaccaro, Kenny NOS S

3.09 Escobar, Gavin DAL TE

3.10 Boyce, Josh NEP WR

3.11 Wilson, Tyler OAK QB

3.12 Alonso, Kiko BUF LB

3.13 Reid, Eric SFO S

3.14 Moore, Sio OAK LB

3.15 Bostic, Jon CHI LB

3.16 Johnson, Charles GBP WR

4.01 Patton, Quinton SFO WR

4.02 Timer Expired

4.03 Elam, Matt BAL S

4.04 Barkley, Matt PHI QB

4.05 Mingo, Barkevious CLE LB

4.06 Lotulelei, Star CAR DT

4.07 Reed, Jordan WAS TE

4.08 Richardson, Sheldon NYJ DE

4.09 Trufant, Desmond ATL CB

4.10 Milliner, Dee NYJ CB

4.11 McDonald, T.J. STL S

4.12 Johnson, Nico KCC LB

4.13 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR

4.14 Glennon, Mike TBB QB

4.15 Davis, Knile KCC RB

4.16 Swearinger, D.J. HOU S

5.01 Greene, Khaseem CHI LB

5.02 Ellington, Andre ARI RB

5.03 Taylor, Stepfan ARI RB

5.04 Moore, Damontre NYG DE

5.05 Swope, Ryan ARI WR

5.06 Thomas, Shamarko PIT S

5.07 Hunt, Margus CIN DE

5.08 Mauti, Michael MIN LB

5.09 Jones, Datone GBP DE

5.10 Banks, Johnthan TBB CB

5.11 Wilcox, J.J. DAL S

5.12 Williams, Sylvester DEN DT

5.13 Lemonier, Corey SFO DE

5.14 Werner, Bjoern IND LB

5.15 Bass, David OAK DE

5.16 Cunningham, Benny STL RB

 
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You thought Edwin Baker was the next coming. You also had Markus Wheaton as the #1 WR in the draft, then dropped him out of your top 15. You also thought James Hardy would be a stud and I said up front he would be a flop. You've whiffed on a LOT of players that you claim to be such an expert on. As for your comments about Knile Davis, he had a devastating injury that has lowered his value. Yes, we all miss on players such as Kendricks, but you come across like you're some kind of scout or something and quite frankly it hasn't translated into fantasy stardom one would expect.
The funny thing about posting on these boards is that you're always guilty if you have any kind of opinion at all. When the topic is Mendenhall or McFadden, I'm the "rigid" and "stubborn" owner who can't admit that he's wrong. When the topic is Baker or Wheaton, suddenly I'm the "flip-flopper" whose opinion is liable to change with the weather.

I like to think that every player is a unique case and when I stand my ground or change my mind, it's usually because I have a good reason for doing so. With Baker, he plummeted down my board as it became clear that the NFL didn't rate him highly. Same with guys like Marcus Davis and Da'Rick Rogers this year. I'm prone to biases like everyone else, but I at least try to weigh the variables and question my own opinions. If convincing new data arises to contradict what I believe, I will try to adjust accordingly.

As far as Woods is concerned, it seems like you haven't done enough of that. You thought he was an elite prospect a year ago. Since then there have been several data points to contradict that (being supplanted by Lee, falling out of the first round of the draft, testing below average at the combine). I don't think my take on him is unfair. The fact that he was a second round pick (~35% success rate) and the fact that he lacks the workout numbers that you usually see in a top flight #1 NFL receiver points towards him being more of a WR2 or WR1B in the NFL. If you believe otherwise then fine, but I think your attachment to this player has skewed your perspective a little bit.

 
You thought Edwin Baker was the next coming. You also had Markus Wheaton as the #1 WR in the draft, then dropped him out of your top 15. You also thought James Hardy would be a stud and I said up front he would be a flop. You've whiffed on a LOT of players that you claim to be such an expert on. As for your comments about Knile Davis, he had a devastating injury that has lowered his value. Yes, we all miss on players such as Kendricks, but you come across like you're some kind of scout or something and quite frankly it hasn't translated into fantasy stardom one would expect.
The funny thing about posting on these boards is that you're always guilty if you have any kind of opinion at all. When the topic is Mendenhall or McFadden, I'm the "rigid" and "stubborn" owner who can't admit that he's wrong. When the topic is Baker or Wheaton, suddenly I'm the "flip-flopper" whose opinion is liable to change with the weather.

I like to think that every player is a unique case and when I stand my ground or change my mind, it's usually because I have a good reason for doing so. With Baker, he plummeted down my board as it became clear that the NFL didn't rate him highly. Same with guys like Marcus Davis and Da'Rick Rogers this year. I'm prone to biases like everyone else, but I at least try to weigh the variables and question my own opinions. If convincing new data arises to contradict what I believe, I will try to adjust accordingly.

As far as Woods is concerned, it seems like you haven't done enough of that. You thought he was an elite prospect a year ago. Since then there have been several data points to contradict that (being supplanted by Lee, falling out of the first round of the draft, testing below average at the combine). I don't think my take on him is unfair. The fact that he was a second round pick (~35% success rate) and the fact that he lacks the workout numbers that you usually see in a top flight #1 NFL receiver points towards him being more of a WR2 or WR1B in the NFL. If you believe otherwise then fine, but I think your attachment to this player has skewed your perspective a little bit.
I'm not saying Woods is the next Calvin Johnson, but he could be the next Marvin Harrison if Buffalo has any kind of play from their QB, which is another topic for conversation.

 
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The funny thing about posting on these boards is that you're always guilty if you have any kind of opinion at all. When the topic is Mendenhall or McFadden, I'm the "rigid" and "stubborn" owner who can't admit that he's wrong. When the topic is Baker or Wheaton, suddenly I'm the "flip-flopper" whose opinion is liable to change with the weather.
It's funny because it's true. I think it's understandable though. It's two different processes, right? Marquee prospects like McFadden we all watched in college and have a pretty good feel on before they are drafted. I'm less likely to change my mind on marquee players at the drop of a hat. Tier 3 and lower prospects like Baker it's less clear where they fit or if they'll make it. Even if you watched multiple MSU games, MSU didn't focus on Baker and likely you weren't watching the game to focus on Baker. For lower level guys it easier to change your mind when presented with new information, like dropping in the draft or getting picked into a good situation or a nice combine performance or other guys who measure out better.

With Baker, he plummeted down my board as it became clear that the NFL didn't rate him highly.
You drafted Baker in a lot of leagues and still called him a good value. That's how situation plays go, though.

 
The funny thing about posting on these boards is that you're always guilty if you have any kind of opinion at all. When the topic is Mendenhall or McFadden, I'm the "rigid" and "stubborn" owner who can't admit that he's wrong. When the topic is Baker or Wheaton, suddenly I'm the "flip-flopper" whose opinion is liable to change with the weather.
It's funny because it's true. I think it's understandable though. It's two different processes, right? Marquee prospects like McFadden we all watched in college and have a pretty good feel on before they are drafted. I'm less likely to change my mind on marquee players at the drop of a hat. Tier 3 and lower prospects like Baker it's less clear where they fit or if they'll make it. Even if you watched multiple MSU games, MSU didn't focus on Baker and likely you weren't watching the game to focus on Baker. For lower level guys it easier to change your mind when presented with new information, like dropping in the draft or getting picked into a good situation or a nice combine performance or other guys who measure out better.
It's an interesting topic. What does it take for you to change your mind on a player? I can't speak for anyone else, but I know that I often get labeled as a rigid or unyielding owner. I don't think that's accurate. I just think people believe it because there's a small, but memorable group of players that I've stuck to my guns on throughout numerous highs and lows. A lot of people know me for being constantly optimistic about guys like Stewart and Mendenhall without recognizing how quickly I bailed on guys like Ingram and Moreno. There are some players that I never had a strong opinion of in the first place. I was pretty neutral on guys like Lamar Miller, Josh Gordon, and Russell Wilson. In a case like this, my opinion will change based on what they show on the field. In a case where I have a strong opinion on a player before he sets foot in an NFL stadium, I'm more likely to hold steady in the face of new information. If I think LeVeon Bell is a dog, I'm not going to flip 180 degrees just because he pieces together a few good games. If I think Tyler Eifert is a good prospect, I'm not going to panic sell just because he has a quiet rookie year. On the other hand, if a guy that I dogged like Alfred Morris comes out and just dominates then there's no possible way that I can stick to my original assessment without looking foolish. At some point the burden of proof becomes so strong that it's undeniable. If you're still dogging someone like Brandon Marshall or Chris Johnson after all they've accomplished, you're clueless. But in most cases it's more gray and less black-and-white until the player is through a significant chunk of his NFL career. In general, the more confidence that I have in my assessment of a given player, the more extreme the new information will have to be in order to change my mind. The reason that I go to bat for guys like Mendenhall and Stewart is because I think I have a good understanding of what they offer. I'm anchored to that assessment An owner who has no strong attachment to those players is much more likely to shuffle them around in his rankings at the slightest hint of negativity. So while I look at Mendenhall's 2011/2012 and see it as nothing more than a player getting hurt and recovering slowly, an owner with a more fluid assessment of Mendenhall's level will look at the exact same data points and jump ship. Bringing this back to the Robert Woods discussion, it makes sense that someone who liked him a lot a year ago (JohnnyU) is going to look at the negative data points (quiet junior year, second round draft slot, modest workout numbers) and not blink an eye. If you were always high on him, these things might not be enough to scare you away. Someone like me who was more neutral/negative on Woods from the start will look at the exact same data points as reason to be skeptical. It is a fine line between knowing when to stay put and when to adjust. There is no exact science to it. You weigh the variables and make an estimate. Different people have different starting points and emphasize different variables, so of course you're always going to end up with "one man's trash is another man's treasure" situations. Ultimately, FF isn't about batting 1.000. It's about batting .333 when everyone else is hitting .250. If you can tilt the odds slightly in your favor, you'll be successful in the long run. It's not always easy though, as every player poses his own unique problems. That's part of what keeps it fresh. I can look at the top 12 rookie picks this year and name reasons why all of them will fail, but of course some of them will succeed. The ability to parse the most relevant and significant information out of the sludge bucket in order to make the most favorable decisions is the big challenge of this hobby.
 
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Hey guys, so I am a co-commish in a Dynasty league and we are starting our second season. We have never had a rookie draft and I am wanting to have ours in June sometime and needing help setting it up.

We are a 12 team IDP and have 40 man rosters. We want to have a 3-4 round rookie draft in June, then have a 4 round FA draft at end of August, then have a cut day back down to 40.

I am looking for a platform to conduct the rookie draft. I would like to do an email draft but have it managed and timed out in someway. I stumbled across www.myemaildraft.com and it was supposed to help manage the emails, and archive picks and allow people to make picks online as well, but I can get the system to work correctly. It looks as if the guys behind it don't manage it much anymore maybe?

I cant get my access link for the league and its also not that user friendly so far.

What I am looking for is a system that will help manage our emails and provide a timer, that would send warning emails when you're on deck and when you're up along with alerts of who was drafted etc.

Anyone have any ideas? Or some kind of slow online chat system or something. It would be great if it would just be an online thing where you wouldn't necessarily have to register for something.

Maybe I should just setup a yahoo group or something...not sure...

Thanks,

Long time FFB commish, 1st-time dynasty commish

 
Just finished our draft. 16 team, salary, contract, idp. 45 man roster. (my picks are in bold)

1.14 Eifert, Tyler CIN TE

1.15 Barner, Kenjon CAR RB

2.01 Stacy, Zac STL RB2.07 Woods, Robert BUF WR2.11 Bailey, Stedman STL WR2.14 Minter, Kevin ARI LB3.07 Robinson, Denard JAC RB3.10 Boyce, Josh NEP WR4.13 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR
Overall, pretty nice draft. I love the Eifert pick, great value there. I'm surprised Barner went behind Eifert at 15 overall, don't think I've seen him go that high. I like the Denard and Boyce picks later on too, and Rogers in the 4th of a 16 teamer is pretty good, even in IDP. One question, are you set at QB or do you not like any of them? Just wondering since you passed a few times where they would have been reasonable value.

 
Just finished our draft. 16 team, salary, contract, idp. 45 man roster. (my picks are in bold)

1.14 Eifert, Tyler CIN TE

1.15 Barner, Kenjon CAR RB

2.01 Stacy, Zac STL RB2.07 Woods, Robert BUF WR2.11 Bailey, Stedman STL WR2.14 Minter, Kevin ARI LB3.07 Robinson, Denard JAC RB3.10 Boyce, Josh NEP WR4.13 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR
Overall, pretty nice draft. I love the Eifert pick, great value there. I'm surprised Barner went behind Eifert at 15 overall, don't think I've seen him go that high. I like the Denard and Boyce picks later on too, and Rogers in the 4th of a 16 teamer is pretty good, even in IDP. One question, are you set at QB or do you not like any of them? Just wondering since you passed a few times where they would have been reasonable value.
I have Brees and Tannehill. The only QB I wanted in this draft was Manuel. I had a second round grade on him and would have taken him at 2.07 or 2.11 if available. He ended up going 1.11. The only other QB I had on my list was Glennon, and I may have looked at him in the 5th. He ended up going 4.14.

Truth be told, I hated this draft. Not so much my actual picks, but the fact that every player seems to have a bigger question mark than in years past. Very few have clear paths to starting jobs. With this being a contract league, you prefer your draft picks to start producing within the first 2 years. (right now would be ideal)

With the exception of Eifert and Minter, I wouldn't be surprised if every pick ends up being cut after 2 years.

 
12 team dynasty ppr (0.5 for WRs, 1.0 for RBs, 1.5 for TEs). Start 1 at all positions plus 3 flex (up to 3 RBs, 4 WRs and 4 TEs).

Our slow draft just started today (12 hr limit per pick) so we're only a couple of picks in right now. I'll update as it goes.

1.01 B. Giovani

1.02 M. Ball.

1.03 D. Hopkins

1.04 L. Bell

1.05 T. Austin

1.06 C. Patterson

1.07 M. Lattimore

1.08 J. Franklin

1.09 E. Lacy

I don't really get why Gio is going so high in so many drafts. I like him, but at pick 1 or 2? I dunno.... maybe if I were all set at RB and can sit on him for a couple of years...

 
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12 team dynasty ppr (0.5 for WRs, 1.0 for RBs, 1.5 for TEs). Start 1 at all positions plus 3 flex (up to 3 RBs, 4 WRs and 4 TEs). Our slow draft just started today (12 hr limit per pick) so we're only a couple of picks in right now. I'll update as it goes. 1.01 B. Giovani1.02 M. Ball. 1.03 ??? I don't really get why Gio is going so high in so many drafts. I like him, but at pick 1 or 2? I dunno.... maybe if I were all set at RB and can sit on him for a couple of years...
RB gets full ppr and WR gets half? Odd.
 
You thought Edwin Baker was the next coming. You also had Markus Wheaton as the #1 WR in the draft, then dropped him out of your top 15. You also thought James Hardy would be a stud and I said up front he would be a flop. You've whiffed on a LOT of players that you claim to be such an expert on. As for your comments about Knile Davis, he had a devastating injury that has lowered his value. Yes, we all miss on players such as Kendricks, but you come across like you're some kind of scout or something and quite frankly it hasn't translated into fantasy stardom one would expect.
The funny thing about posting on these boards is that you're always guilty if you have any kind of opinion at all. When the topic is Mendenhall or McFadden, I'm the "rigid" and "stubborn" owner who can't admit that he's wrong. When the topic is Baker or Wheaton, suddenly I'm the "flip-flopper" whose opinion is liable to change with the weather. I like to think that every player is a unique case and when I stand my ground or change my mind, it's usually because I have a good reason for doing so. With Baker, he plummeted down my board as it became clear that the NFL didn't rate him highly. Same with guys like Marcus Davis and Da'Rick Rogers this year. I'm prone to biases like everyone else, but I at least try to weigh the variables and question my own opinions. If convincing new data arises to contradict what I believe, I will try to adjust accordingly. As far as Woods is concerned, it seems like you haven't done enough of that. You thought he was an elite prospect a year ago. Since then there have been several data points to contradict that (being supplanted by Lee, falling out of the first round of the draft, testing below average at the combine). I don't think my take on him is unfair. The fact that he was a second round pick (~35% success rate) and the fact that he lacks the workout numbers that you usually see in a top flight #1 NFL receiver points towards him being more of a WR2 or WR1B in the NFL. If you believe otherwise then fine, but I think your attachment to this player has skewed your perspective a little bit.
I'm not saying Woods is the next Calvin Johnson, but he could be the next Marvin Harrison if Buffalo has any kind of play from their QB, which is another topic for conversation.
I like Woods, but to compare his potential situation to Marvin Harrison, who had PEYTON, is irresponsible and wishful IMO.
 
You thought Edwin Baker was the next coming. You also had Markus Wheaton as the #1 WR in the draft, then dropped him out of your top 15. You also thought James Hardy would be a stud and I said up front he would be a flop. You've whiffed on a LOT of players that you claim to be such an expert on. As for your comments about Knile Davis, he had a devastating injury that has lowered his value. Yes, we all miss on players such as Kendricks, but you come across like you're some kind of scout or something and quite frankly it hasn't translated into fantasy stardom one would expect.
The funny thing about posting on these boards is that you're always guilty if you have any kind of opinion at all. When the topic is Mendenhall or McFadden, I'm the "rigid" and "stubborn" owner who can't admit that he's wrong. When the topic is Baker or Wheaton, suddenly I'm the "flip-flopper" whose opinion is liable to change with the weather. I like to think that every player is a unique case and when I stand my ground or change my mind, it's usually because I have a good reason for doing so. With Baker, he plummeted down my board as it became clear that the NFL didn't rate him highly. Same with guys like Marcus Davis and Da'Rick Rogers this year. I'm prone to biases like everyone else, but I at least try to weigh the variables and question my own opinions. If convincing new data arises to contradict what I believe, I will try to adjust accordingly. As far as Woods is concerned, it seems like you haven't done enough of that. You thought he was an elite prospect a year ago. Since then there have been several data points to contradict that (being supplanted by Lee, falling out of the first round of the draft, testing below average at the combine). I don't think my take on him is unfair. The fact that he was a second round pick (~35% success rate) and the fact that he lacks the workout numbers that you usually see in a top flight #1 NFL receiver points towards him being more of a WR2 or WR1B in the NFL. If you believe otherwise then fine, but I think your attachment to this player has skewed your perspective a little bit.
I'm not saying Woods is the next Calvin Johnson, but he could be the next Marvin Harrison if Buffalo has any kind of play from their QB, which is another topic for conversation.
I like Woods, but to compare his potential situation to Marvin Harrison, who had PEYTON, is irresponsible and wishful IMO.
Marvin actually started out with Jim Harbaugh fwiw.

 
You thought Edwin Baker was the next coming. You also had Markus Wheaton as the #1 WR in the draft, then dropped him out of your top 15. You also thought James Hardy would be a stud and I said up front he would be a flop. You've whiffed on a LOT of players that you claim to be such an expert on. As for your comments about Knile Davis, he had a devastating injury that has lowered his value. Yes, we all miss on players such as Kendricks, but you come across like you're some kind of scout or something and quite frankly it hasn't translated into fantasy stardom one would expect.
The funny thing about posting on these boards is that you're always guilty if you have any kind of opinion at all. When the topic is Mendenhall or McFadden, I'm the "rigid" and "stubborn" owner who can't admit that he's wrong. When the topic is Baker or Wheaton, suddenly I'm the "flip-flopper" whose opinion is liable to change with the weather.

I like to think that every player is a unique case and when I stand my ground or change my mind, it's usually because I have a good reason for doing so. With Baker, he plummeted down my board as it became clear that the NFL didn't rate him highly. Same with guys like Marcus Davis and Da'Rick Rogers this year. I'm prone to biases like everyone else, but I at least try to weigh the variables and question my own opinions. If convincing new data arises to contradict what I believe, I will try to adjust accordingly.

As far as Woods is concerned, it seems like you haven't done enough of that. You thought he was an elite prospect a year ago. Since then there have been several data points to contradict that (being supplanted by Lee, falling out of the first round of the draft, testing below average at the combine). I don't think my take on him is unfair. The fact that he was a second round pick (~35% success rate) and the fact that he lacks the workout numbers that you usually see in a top flight #1 NFL receiver points towards him being more of a WR2 or WR1B in the NFL. If you believe otherwise then fine, but I think your attachment to this player has skewed your perspective a little bit.
I'm not saying Woods is the next Calvin Johnson, but he could be the next Marvin Harrison if Buffalo has any kind of play from their QB, which is another topic for conversation.
List of FCS WRs drafted in 2013 with no season of >8 yards per target and (corresponding round):

Robert Woods (2)

Marquise Goodwin (3)

Justin Brown (6)

Brice Butler (7)

Kevin Dorsey (7)

What do you notice about the first two? Are we to believe that the Bills and their outgoing GM are just that much smarter than the NFL? Or maybe one team just doesn't know what they are doing.

Woods also had the benefit of a 4th rd QB throwing to him.

You might be able to make an argument that he will be reliable, but the first warrant I see for Robert Woods having serious NFL upside will be the first.

 
UPDATE - Draft completed - bold picks are mine

.05 ppr IDP League. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1K, 2DL, 3LB, 2DB, 1 DB/DL

1.01 Giovani Bernard

1.02 Eddie Lacy

1.03 Tavon Austin

1.04 Le'Veon Bell

1.05 Montee Ball

1.06 Deandre Hopkins

1.07 Corarrelle Patterson

1.08 Keenan Allen

1.09 Tyler Eifert

1.10 Andre Ellington

1.11 Jonathan Franklin

1.12 Marcus Lattimore

2.01 Justin Hunter

2.02 Markus Wheaton

2.03 Zac Stacy

2.04 Aaron Dobson

2.05 Christine Michael

2.06 Zach Ertz

2.07 Robert Woods

2.08 Joseph Randle

2.09 EJ Manuel

2.10 Quinton Patton

2.11 Stedman Bailey

2.12 Arthur Brown

3.01 Stepfan Taylor

3.02 Ezekial Anah

3.03 Geno Smith

3.04 Travis Kelce

3.05 Latavius Murray

3.06 Knile Davis

3.07 Dion Jordan

3.08 Dee Milliner

3.09 Jon Bostic

3.10 Barkevious Mingo

3.11 Kenny Vaccaro

3.12 Manti T'eo

4.01 Kevin Minter

4.02 Mike Gillislee

4.03 Josh Boyce

4.04 Jarvis Jones

4.05 Terrance Williams

4.06 Margus Hunt

4.07 Denard Robinson

4.08 Marquise Goodwin

4.09 Kiko Alonso

4.10 Johnathan Cyprien

4.11 Gavin Escobar

4.12 Tyler Wilson

5.01 Jordan Reed

5.02 Da'Rick Rogers

5.03 Charles Johnson

5.04 Kerwynn Williams

5.05 Matt Elam

5.06 Ryan Nassib

5.07 Kenny Stills

5.08 Tavarres King

5.09 Alec Ogletree

5.10 Bjoern Werner

5.11 Kenjon Barner

5.12 Chris Harper

6.01 Vance McDonald

6.02 Matt Barkley

6.03 Ryan Swope

6.04 Mike Glennon

6.05 Marquess Wilson

6.06 Aaron Mellette

6.07 Ray Graham

6.08 Levine Toilolo

6.09 Mike James

6.10 Cobi Hamilton

6.11 Sio Moore

6.12 Khaseem Greene

 
UPDATE - Draft completed - bold picks are mine

.05 ppr IDP League. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1K, 2DL, 3LB, 2DB, 1 DB/DL

1.01 Giovani Bernard

1.02 Eddie Lacy

1.03 Tavon Austin

1.04 Le'Veon Bell

1.05 Montee Ball

1.06 Deandre Hopkins

1.07 Corarrelle Patterson

1.08 Keenan Allen

1.09 Tyler Eifert

1.10 Andre Ellington

1.11 Jonathan Franklin

1.12 Marcus Lattimore
Interesting to see Ellington that high. I liked him before the draft and took him middle of the second in one of my leagues. Talent-wise, I think he's as good as any rookie other than a healthy Lattimore.

 

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