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Post your 2024 dynasty rookie drafts (3 Viewers)

Confirmation bias abounds for me in this thread…

See a dude I drafted go before or right around the same place I picked him: I rule. My rankings and logic were sound.

See a dude I drafted go multiple picks after where I picked him: Outlier. Disregard that crappy, newb league of guppies.
 
Damm, Daniels is always going in the 1st
Traded my 2025 1st and 3.08 to get him at 1.14 (1 QB/14 Team IDP)
Those are challenging moves to make. Were you not able to wait until your partner was OTC? I'm sure you have a fallback plan.
McCarthy was taken 1.08 / Caleb was taken 1.13 and I have very little interest in Nix or Maye... I'm sure JD was going to be taken early 2nd
I was lucky to get back in the 2nd to secure Corum who was actually my second choice at 1.14 (Williams owner here)
 
12 Team SF, 0.5 ppr, TEP 1.0 ppr, 0.25 ppc

PICK PLAYER
1.01 Williams, Caleb CHI QB (R)
1.02 Harrison Jr., Marvin ARI WR (R)
1.03 Daniels, Jayden WAS QB (R)
1.04 Nabers, Malik NYG WR (R)
1.05 Bowers, Brock LVR TE (R) (Q)
1.06 McCarthy, J.J. MIN QB (R)
1.07 Maye, Drake NEP QB (R)
1.08 Odunze, Rome CHI WR (R)
1.09 Thomas Jr., Brian JAC WR (R)
1.10 Nix, Bo DEN QB (R)
1.11 Worthy, Xavier KCC WR (R)
1.12 Coleman, Keon BUF WR (R)
2.01 Brooks, Jonathon CAR RB (R) (Q)
2.02 McConkey, Ladd LAC WR (R)
2.03 Sinnott, Ben WAS TE (R)
2.04 Benson, Trey ARI RB (R)
2.05 Penix Jr., Michael ATL QB (R)
2.06 Legette, Xavier CAR WR (R)
2.07 Corum, Blake LAR RB (R)
2.08 Pearsall, Ricky SFO WR (R)
2.09 Wilson, Roman PIT WR (R)
2.10 Mitchell, Adonai IND WR (R)
2.11 Wright, Jaylen MIA RB (R)
2.12 McCaffrey, Luke WAS WR (R)
3.01 Franklin, Troy DEN WR (R)
3.02 Lloyd, MarShawn GBP RB (R)
3.03 Burton, Jermaine CIN WR (R)
3.04 Sanders, Ja'Tavion CAR TE (R)
3.05 Polk, Ja'Lynn NEP WR (R)
3.06 Rattler, Spencer NOS QB (R)
3.07 Corley, Malachi NYJ WR (R)
3.08 Davis, Ray BUF RB (R)
3.09 Vidal, Kimani LAC RB (R)
3.10 Irving, Bucky TBB RB (R)
3.11 McMillan, Jalen TBB WR (R)
3.12 Baker, Javon NEP WR (R)
4.01 Estime, Audric DEN RB (R)
4.02 Allen, Braelon NYJ RB (R)
4.03 All, Erick CIN TE (R) (Q)
4.04 Johnson, Theo NYG TE (R)
4.05 Shipley, Will PHI RB (R)
4.06 Washington, Malik MIA WR (R)
4.07 Tracy, Tyrone NYG RB (R)
4.08 Guerendo, Isaac SFO RB (R)
4.09 Wiley, Jared KCC TE (R)
4.10 Rice, Brenden LAC WR (R)
4.11 Walker, Devontez BAL WR (R)
4.12 Smith, Ainias PHI WR (R)
 
24 team, 2 copy league, SF, TEP, devy (one copy can be picked as devy, one remains until they're drafted into the NFL)
1.01 was me, contender, acquired via trade, loaded at QB (Burrow, Herbert, Richardson, Daniels) and no one would trade so took MHJ
1.02 and 1.03 doesn't understand SF or know what he's doing. (You'll see he's maybe not the only one.)

PICK PLAYER
1.01 Harrison Jr., Marvin ARI WR (R)
1.02 Nabers, Malik NYG WR (R)
1.03 Odunze, Rome CHI WR (R)
1.04 Williams, Caleb CHI QB (R)
1.05 Daniels, Jayden WAS QB (R)
1.06 Coleman, Keon BUF WR (R)
1.07 McCarthy, J.J. MIN QB (R)
1.08 Maye, Drake NEP QB (R)
1.09 Bowers, Brock LVR TE (R) (Q)
1.10 Worthy, Xavier KCC WR (R)
1.11 Nix, Bo DEN QB (R)
1.12 Penix Jr., Michael ATL QB (R)
1.13 Coleman, Keon BUF WR (R)
1.14 Thomas Jr., Brian JAC WR (R)
1.15 Brooks, Jonathon CAR RB (R) (Q)
1.16 Thomas Jr., Brian JAC WR (R)
1.17 Brooks, Jonathon CAR RB (R) (Q)
1.18 * *McMillan, Tetairoa, 2025 FA WR (R)
1.19 * *Beck, Carson, 2025 FA QB (R)
1.20 McConkey, Ladd LAC WR (R)
1.21 Mitchell, Adonai IND WR (R)
1.22 McConkey, Ladd LAC WR (R)
1.23 Benson, Trey ARI RB (R)
1.24 Corum, Blake LAR RB (R)
1.25 Benson, Trey ARI RB (R)
2.01 Wright, Jaylen MIA RB (R)
2.02 Stover, Cade HOU TE (R)
2.03 Pearsall, Ricky SFO WR (R)
2.04 Legette, Xavier CAR WR (R)
2.05 Sinnott, Ben WAS TE (R)
2.06 Wilson, Roman PIT WR (R)
2.07 Stover, Cade HOU TE (R)
2.08 * *Gordon , Ollie, 2025 FA RB (R)
2.09 Pearsall, Ricky SFO WR (R)
2.10 Washington, Malik MIA WR (R)
2.11 McCaffrey, Luke WAS WR (R)
2.12 McCaffrey, Luke WAS WR (R)
2.13 Wright, Jaylen MIA RB (R)
2.14 Rattler, Spencer NOS QB (R)
2.15 * *Loveland, Colston, 2025 FA TE (R)
2.16 Lloyd, MarShawn GBP RB (R)
2.17 Wilson, Roman PIT WR (R)
2.18 * *Iamaleava, Nico, 2026 FA QB (R)
2.19 Mitchell, Adonai IND WR (R)
2.20 Sinnott, Ben WAS TE (R)
2.21 Legette, Xavier CAR WR (R)
2.22 * *Bond, Isaiah, 2025 FA WR (R)
2.23 Sanders, Ja'Tavion CAR TE (R)
2.24 Polk, Ja'Lynn NEP WR (R)
3.01 Corley, Malachi NYJ WR (R)
3.02 Davis, Ray BUF RB (R)
3.03 Lloyd, MarShawn GBP RB (R)
3.04 Polk, Ja'Lynn NEP WR (R)
3.05 * *Manning, Arch, 2026 FA QB (R)
3.06 Davis, Ray BUF RB (R)
3.07 Irving, Bucky TBB RB (R)
3.08 Franklin, Troy DEN WR (R)
3.09 * *Baxter, CJ, 2026 FA RB (R)
3.10 Shipley, Will PHI RB (R)
3.11 Burton, Jermaine CIN WR (R)
3.12 Tracy, Tyrone NYG RB (R)
3.13 * *Moore, Dante, 2026 FA QB (R)
3.14 * *Arnold, Jackson, 2026 FA QB (R)
3.15 * *Tate, Carnell, 2026 FA WR (R)
3.16 Ali, Rasheen BAL RB (R) (Q)
3.17 * *Milroe, Jalen, 2025 FA QB (R)
3.18 * *Branch, Zachariah, 2026 FA WR (R)
3.19 Corley, Malachi NYJ WR (R)
3.20 * *Nelson, Malachi, 2026 FA QB (R)
3.21 * *Neal, Devin, 2025 FA RB (R)
3.22 * *Hampton, Omarion, 2025 FA RB (R)
3.23 Baker, Javon NEP WR (R)
3.24 Baker, Javon NEP WR (R)
 
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12 team SF 0.5 ppr 1.75 TE premium

1.01. Caleb Williams
1.02 Marvin Harrison Jnr
1.03. Jalen Daniels
1.04. Malik Nabers
1.05. JJ McCarthy
1.06. Drake Maye
1.07. Brock Bowers
1.08. Rome Odunze
1.09. Xavier Worthy
1.10. Jonathon Brooks
1.11. Trey Benson
1.12. Brian Thomas

2.01. Bo Nix
2.02. Michael Penix Jnr
2.03. Ladd McConkey
2.04. Keon Coleman
2.05. Xavier Legette
2.06.Ricky Pearsall
2.07. Ben Sinnott
2.08. Ja’Lynn Polk
2.09. Jermaine Burton
2.10. Blake Corum ( me and I’m the Kyren owner)
2.11. Troy Franklin
2.12. AD Mitchell

3.01. Ja’Tavion Sanders
3.02. MarShawn Lloyd
3.03. Jalen Wright
3.04. Roman Wilson ( me )
3.05. Bucky Irving
3.06. Malachi Corley
3.07. Javon Baker
3.08. Spencer Rattler
3.09. Devontez Walker


To be completed
 
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24 team, 2 copy league, SF, TEP, devy (one copy can be picked as devy, one remains until they're drafted into the NFL)
What's the value like for Arch at 3.05? Seems like the 1.04 had to do cartwheels for getting Caleb, but Arch also seems like a steal. Unless not being able to beat out a really mediocre Ewers + waiting 2 years brings his value waaay down?
 
They already took down the full results from my league.
Here is what I got picking from the x.12 unless noted otherwise
Nothing special, no superstars, but I can only keep 4 of these, barring trades, will need to pay attention to camps and preseason games....

Coleman
McCarthy
Estime at 3.3
B Iriving
Theo Johnson
Flournoy
A Mattison (rookie, F/A draft)
J Bell at 7.08
J Jordan
 
24 team, 2 copy league, SF, TEP, devy (one copy can be picked as devy, one remains until they're drafted into the NFL)
What's the value like for Arch at 3.05? Seems like the 1.04 had to do cartwheels for getting Caleb, but Arch also seems like a steal. Unless not being able to beat out a really mediocre Ewers + waiting 2 years brings his value waaay down?
That was one of my picks and it may have actually been a little early for him. I would have rather had Nico, but he went 2.18. Devy QB's can be such a crapshoot, 2-3 years ago people were fighting over guys like Spencer Rattler and DJU and where are those guys now? Last year Allar and Klubnik went in the 2nd round and that's not looking great at the moment. Right now, I don't even have Arch at the top of that class but took him based on name value which I think I can get value on from some guys in my league when he starts playing more. Also, with him being a Manning, I'm thinking he'll get some extra chances and benefit of the doubt that other college QB's may not get, think of it like "draft capital" except that it's "Manning capital".
 
Well this one is off to a hot start. 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB/WR/TE 1 DST - 12 team PPR


1.1 MJH
1.2 Nabors
1.3 Keon Coleman
1.4 Worthy
1.5 Odunze
1.6 Thomas Jr
1.7 Caleb
1.8 Brooks
1.9 Benson
1.10 Ladd
1.11 Bowers
1.12 Legette
2.1 Daniels
2.2 Pearsall
2.3 AD Mitchell
2.4 Corum
2.5 Wright
2.6 Roman WIlson
2.7 Lloyd
2.8 Franklin
2.9 Polk
2.10 McCarthy
2.11 Maye
2.12 Vidal
3.1 Ray Davis
3.2 Sinnott
3.3 Nix
3.4 Burton
 
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Coleman over Odunze seems crazy to me...I'd argue Worthy over him as well...
To me they are both a tier down from Brian Thomas, two tiers down from Odunze.

So yeah, crazy to pick either of them over Odunze but I had something similar happen in a league of mine were someone took Coleman at 4 over Bowers in a TEP league.

I get that Mahomes and Andy Reid are making people higher on Worthy, higher then me, but I get it. I was thinking the other day that I feel like Coleman's personality in his interviews might actually be picking up his stock. Or maybe I'm just crazy to think that, obviously Josh Allen is a big part of it.
 
12 Team SF, 0.5 ppr, TEP 1.0 ppr, 0.25 ppc

PICK PLAYER
1.01 Williams, Caleb CHI QB (R)
1.02 Harrison Jr., Marvin ARI WR (R)
1.03 Daniels, Jayden WAS QB (R)
1.04 Nabers, Malik NYG WR (R)
1.05 Bowers, Brock LVR TE (R) (Q)
1.06 McCarthy, J.J. MIN QB (R)
1.07 Maye, Drake NEP QB (R)
1.08 Odunze, Rome CHI WR (R)
1.09 Thomas Jr., Brian JAC WR (R)
1.10 Nix, Bo DEN QB (R)
1.11 Worthy, Xavier KCC WR (R)
1.12 Coleman, Keon BUF WR (R)
2.01 Brooks, Jonathon CAR RB (R) (Q)
2.02 McConkey, Ladd LAC WR (R)
2.03 Sinnott, Ben WAS TE (R)
2.04 Benson, Trey ARI RB (R)
2.05 Penix Jr., Michael ATL QB (R)
2.06 Legette, Xavier CAR WR (R)
2.07 Corum, Blake LAR RB (R)
2.08 Pearsall, Ricky SFO WR (R)
2.09 Wilson, Roman PIT WR (R)
2.10 Mitchell, Adonai IND WR (R)
2.11 Wright, Jaylen MIA RB (R)
2.12 McCaffrey, Luke WAS WR (R)
3.01 Franklin, Troy DEN WR (R)
3.02 Lloyd, MarShawn GBP RB (R)
3.03 Burton, Jermaine CIN WR (R)
3.04 Sanders, Ja'Tavion CAR TE (R)
3.05 Polk, Ja'Lynn NEP WR (R)
3.06 Rattler, Spencer NOS QB (R)
3.07 Corley, Malachi NYJ WR (R)
3.08 Davis, Ray BUF RB (R)
3.09 Vidal, Kimani LAC RB (R)
3.10 Irving, Bucky TBB RB (R)
3.11 McMillan, Jalen TBB WR (R)
3.12 Baker, Javon NEP WR (R)
4.01 Estime, Audric DEN RB (R)
4.02 Allen, Braelon NYJ RB (R)
4.03 All, Erick CIN TE (R) (Q)
4.04 Johnson, Theo NYG TE (R)
4.05 Shipley, Will PHI RB (R)
4.06 Washington, Malik MIA WR (R)
4.07 Tracy, Tyrone NYG RB (R)
4.08 Guerendo, Isaac SFO RB (R)
4.09 Wiley, Jared KCC TE (R)
4.10 Rice, Brenden LAC WR (R)
4.11 Walker, Devontez BAL WR (R)
4.12 Smith, Ainias PHI WR (R)
Pennix continues to go well ahead of where I believe he should in every draft. Literally the worst situation for a rookie QB I’ve seen in some time.

Unless folks believe Cousins is going to get hurt again, which is a tough one to predict, the early-to-mid 2nd round might look pretty bad in a few years if/when he’s started 0 games.
 
12 Team SF, 0.5 ppr, TEP 1.0 ppr, 0.25 ppc

PICK PLAYER
1.01 Williams, Caleb CHI QB (R)
1.02 Harrison Jr., Marvin ARI WR (R)
1.03 Daniels, Jayden WAS QB (R)
1.04 Nabers, Malik NYG WR (R)
1.05 Bowers, Brock LVR TE (R) (Q)
1.06 McCarthy, J.J. MIN QB (R)
1.07 Maye, Drake NEP QB (R)
1.08 Odunze, Rome CHI WR (R)
1.09 Thomas Jr., Brian JAC WR (R)
1.10 Nix, Bo DEN QB (R)
1.11 Worthy, Xavier KCC WR (R)
1.12 Coleman, Keon BUF WR (R)
2.01 Brooks, Jonathon CAR RB (R) (Q)
2.02 McConkey, Ladd LAC WR (R)
2.03 Sinnott, Ben WAS TE (R)
2.04 Benson, Trey ARI RB (R)
2.05 Penix Jr., Michael ATL QB (R)
2.06 Legette, Xavier CAR WR (R)
2.07 Corum, Blake LAR RB (R)
2.08 Pearsall, Ricky SFO WR (R)
2.09 Wilson, Roman PIT WR (R)
2.10 Mitchell, Adonai IND WR (R)
2.11 Wright, Jaylen MIA RB (R)
2.12 McCaffrey, Luke WAS WR (R)
3.01 Franklin, Troy DEN WR (R)
3.02 Lloyd, MarShawn GBP RB (R)
3.03 Burton, Jermaine CIN WR (R)
3.04 Sanders, Ja'Tavion CAR TE (R)
3.05 Polk, Ja'Lynn NEP WR (R)
3.06 Rattler, Spencer NOS QB (R)
3.07 Corley, Malachi NYJ WR (R)
3.08 Davis, Ray BUF RB (R)
3.09 Vidal, Kimani LAC RB (R)
3.10 Irving, Bucky TBB RB (R)
3.11 McMillan, Jalen TBB WR (R)
3.12 Baker, Javon NEP WR (R)
4.01 Estime, Audric DEN RB (R)
4.02 Allen, Braelon NYJ RB (R)
4.03 All, Erick CIN TE (R) (Q)
4.04 Johnson, Theo NYG TE (R)
4.05 Shipley, Will PHI RB (R)
4.06 Washington, Malik MIA WR (R)
4.07 Tracy, Tyrone NYG RB (R)
4.08 Guerendo, Isaac SFO RB (R)
4.09 Wiley, Jared KCC TE (R)
4.10 Rice, Brenden LAC WR (R)
4.11 Walker, Devontez BAL WR (R)
4.12 Smith, Ainias PHI WR (R)
Pennix continues to go well ahead of where I believe he should in every draft. Literally the worst situation for a rookie QB I’ve seen in some time.

Unless folks believe Cousins is going to get hurt again, which is a tough one to predict, the early-to-mid 2nd round might look pretty bad in a few years if/when he’s started 0 games.
If you can wait a year or even 2, you will make a tidy profit. I think steal for anyone getting later. In this draft, the others went in top 10 and value big. In mine they went 1-2-7-8-9 and I took him 15. In 2 years worth at least Thomas and Worthy who went 10-12. Better situation than Love and what is his value in SF today. More highly regarded also. The team @ 10 who took Thomas trading Kincaid, 26 2nd to get there for QB took Thomas instead. Smart move in beginning, big mistake letting Penix go by him. With only 1 QB on roster in our SF league, I don’t think chance at championship. His QB, Stafford and this is the year he needs. Everyone getting well after the others will do great down the line. He be 1.1 IMO in next years draft. Also believe a better situation than Daniels, Maye and Nix. #1 spot for Yahoo article
 
If you can wait a year or even 2, you will make a tidy profit
Or you have a paperweight while Cousins plays out all 4 years of his contract then gets a series of 1-year deals. Dude may never see the field.l during his rookie contract.
Yup, it's just a really poor landing spot. The weapons on offense are nice so if Penix were to step in for Week 1 I think he'd be fine and a very popular fantasy option. But for Penix to get value it is reliant on injury of the guy ahead of him, or trade. Cousins isn't getting traded because of his salary and the cap hit. Also betting on Cousins to get injured seems like a poor bet considering he's been durable for his playing career dating back to his Michigan State days, with this past season being the first time he's missed starts as a professional due to injury. Penix has a much, much more extensive injury history and he hasn't played a single snap in the NFL yet.

There's a fair chance that Cousins is healthy, productive, and well-liked by his teammates, which means he's going to be the guy for the duration of his contract. And even if he isn't productive, he's going to be given every chance to right the ship considering the investment cost, with the earliest possibility of a benching being sometime in 2026, the last year before the out on his contract. Penix may not be a Week 1 starter until his age 27 or 28 season. The only other thing you can hope for as a Penix owner would be that the Falcons move on from Penix (much easier to do than moving Cousins) but then you have to hope with him losing however many seasons of development, learning a new playbook, etc. The Packers strategy doesn't work because Penix is much older than Rodgers and Love were when they were drafted. So for Penix to realistically have value, either Cousins needs to have a devastating injury or Penix needs a change of scenery, and neither scenario is something you'll want to hold your breath for. And even if Penix starts, then you're holding your breath any time he takes a hit, considering he's had two ACL tears and two shoulder injuries, all season enders, dating back to 2018.

That is why Penix is falling in drafts. There is no clear path for him and too many unlikely scenarios that would need to play out for him to have value.
 
Cousins has a no-trade clause so that's another wrinkle. The Falcons can't just arbitrarily decide they'll trade Cousins even if they feel like burning tons of money and cap space to do so. I don't see the Falcons trading Penix since Cousins isn't a spring chicken. Penix is basically a really expensive (draft capital wise) insurance policy for their really expensive free agent signee. At this point you'd have to hope Cousins retires early in the contract, as the only way Penix is playing is if the Falcons have no choice in the matter. Otherwise they're stuck with Cousins.
 
If you can wait a year or even 2, you will make a tidy profit
Or you have a paperweight while Cousins plays out all 4 years of his contract then gets a series of 1-year deals. Dude may never see the field during his rookie contract.
Thing is think the people who drafted him are going to be highly motivated to give him his chance. So will depend on Cousins play but chances are in 2 years he'll be given a shot, with possibility of 1 if Cousins bombs are gets seriously hurt (low odds) or 3 if Cousins plays really well for 3 years (some chance but I'd prob bet against it). Cousins lasting 4 years seems rather unlikely.
 
Cousins lasting 4 years seems rather unlikely.
Why? He’s been healthy his entire career.

And it’s not like he’s a cheat code mobile QB, so I’m not sure why this injury would derail his future.
well he's 36 to start the season, late 30's is common to start to see a decline in play no guarantee of that of course but likely. and like I said the Falcons are gonna to want to show they made a good and smart pick so they're going to motivated to give Penix a shot. Love finally got a shot after 3 years and I think that's the longest they'll wait, with 2 years most likely. They're not going to have sit 4 years and watch his rookie contract expire without giving him a good look.
 
Cousins lasting 4 years seems rather unlikely.
Why? He’s been healthy his entire career.

And it’s not like he’s a cheat code mobile QB, so I’m not sure why this injury would derail his future.
well he's 36 to start the season, late 30's is common to start to see a decline in play no guarantee of that of course but likely. and like I said the Falcons are gonna to want to show they made a good and smart pick so they're going to motivated to give Penix a shot. Love finally got a shot after 3 years and I think that's the longest they'll wait, with 2 years most likely. They're not going to have sit 4 years and watch his rookie contract expire without giving him a good look.
By that same logic, aren’t the Falcons going to want to show everyone that they made a smart move giving Cousins a 4-year, $180M contract with $100M guaranteed?

I would think that would be even more important than looking smart for showing off their new draft pick.
 
Cousins lasting 4 years seems rather unlikely.
Why? He’s been healthy his entire career.

And it’s not like he’s a cheat code mobile QB, so I’m not sure why this injury would derail his future.
well he's 36 to start the season, late 30's is common to start to see a decline in play no guarantee of that of course but likely. and like I said the Falcons are gonna to want to show they made a good and smart pick so they're going to motivated to give Penix a shot. Love finally got a shot after 3 years and I think that's the longest they'll wait, with 2 years most likely. They're not going to have sit 4 years and watch his rookie contract expire without giving him a good look.
By that same logic, aren’t the Falcons going to want to show everyone that they made a smart move giving Cousins a 4-year, $180M contract with $100M guaranteed?

I would think that would be even more important than looking smart for showing off their new draft pick.
Exactly this. The way the Falcons' pick will look smart is if Cousins is injured and the Falcons offense doesn't miss a beat thanks to their shiny new draft pick Penix. Failing that, the Falcons wasted valuable resources on a QB they didn't need, and history will show it's either the 100 million dollar man Cousins or the 8th overall pick Penix.
 
Cousins has a no-trade clause so that's another wrinkle. The Falcons can't just arbitrarily decide they'll trade Cousins even if they feel like burning tons of money and cap space to do so. I don't see the Falcons trading Penix since Cousins isn't a spring chicken. Penix is basically a really expensive (draft capital wise) insurance policy for their really expensive free agent signee. At this point you'd have to hope Cousins retires early in the contract, as the only way Penix is playing is if the Falcons have no choice in the matter. Otherwise they're stuck with Cousins.
Kirk won't walk away from money so I think we can all probably forget retirement.

I think most people are just assuming that they will cut Cousins after two seasons when the guarantees in his deal run out and that's probably the way it goes. Could only see them trying to keep Kirk for 3 years is if they've lost trust in Penix or Atlanta won or made a SB which seems a little far fetched but one way or another can't see them willingly keeping both Qb's for more then 2 seasons unless they just don't trust Penix.

There is another scenario I could see working out which would be the best case scenario for Atlanta and Penix. And that would involve Kirk informing Atlanta after this season he'd be willing to accept a trade to a team of his choosing. The idea for Kirk would be he can exit a situation he did not sign up for, where the rug was pulled out from him, and as part of his agreement he can request financial incentives, add guarantees past the 2025 season, and despite being a year older if he shows he's healthy he probably will have more leverage then he had this season plus it helps the incoming rookie QB class next year looks thin. I think this is a very possible outcome.
 
Cousins lasting 4 years seems rather unlikely.
Why? He’s been healthy his entire career.

And it’s not like he’s a cheat code mobile QB, so I’m not sure why this injury would derail his future.
well he's 36 to start the season, late 30's is common to start to see a decline in play no guarantee of that of course but likely. and like I said the Falcons are gonna to want to show they made a good and smart pick so they're going to motivated to give Penix a shot. Love finally got a shot after 3 years and I think that's the longest they'll wait, with 2 years most likely. They're not going to have sit 4 years and watch his rookie contract expire without giving him a good look.
By that same logic, aren’t the Falcons going to want to show everyone that they made a smart move giving Cousins a 4-year, $180M contract with $100M guaranteed?

I would think that would be even more important than looking smart for showing off their new draft pick.
Exactly this. The way the Falcons' pick will look smart is if Cousins is injured and the Falcons offense doesn't miss a beat thanks to their shiny new draft pick Penix. Failing that, the Falcons wasted valuable resources on a QB they didn't need, and history will show it's either the 100 million dollar man Cousins or the 8th overall pick Penix.
If they wanted a good backup they could've signed Andy Dalton.
 
Cousins lasting 4 years seems rather unlikely.
Why? He’s been healthy his entire career.

And it’s not like he’s a cheat code mobile QB, so I’m not sure why this injury would derail his future.
well he's 36 to start the season, late 30's is common to start to see a decline in play no guarantee of that of course but likely. and like I said the Falcons are gonna to want to show they made a good and smart pick so they're going to motivated to give Penix a shot. Love finally got a shot after 3 years and I think that's the longest they'll wait, with 2 years most likely. They're not going to have sit 4 years and watch his rookie contract expire without giving him a good look.
By that same logic, aren’t the Falcons going to want to show everyone that they made a smart move giving Cousins a 4-year, $180M contract with $100M guaranteed?

I would think that would be even more important than looking smart for showing off their new draft pick.
I'm not saying the draft pick was logical, the two moves together made zero sense to me. To some extent yes, but I think they can reasonably get out of Cousins contract after a couple years, if he gives them a couple good years, possibly 3, they can move on and look good.
 
That is why Penix is falling in drafts. There is no clear path for him and too many unlikely scenarios that would need to play out for him to have value
Yep - meanwhile Rattler is going a full round later, and Carr is due $10M roster bonus, and $30 million salary next year for being thoroughly mediocre.

Make it make sense.
Rattler was a 5th round pick. Not the #8 overall. So him going round later or more should happen. He is guaranteed nothing on talent alone.

Cousins is not lasting 4 years. Rodgers signed a 3 yr extension with GB in 2022. Lasted one season and gone. Was 3 yr 150.8 million contract. He was 38 and coming off some injuries. Rodgers >>> Cousins. Atlanta will allow Penix to develop which is good thing IMO. He will not be thrown to the wolves. Or that is the hope. Disagree with anyone who thinks he lasts 4. Atlanta not worried about the money. Teams give draft picks many chances usually. Hate being wrong there. Cousins is basically on a 2 year deal now and not sure he sees the end of it. Great for Penix and see his value rising rapidly for SF when named starter. Penix >> Love coming out. Love is great example of sitting learning. Again what is his value in SF today. Top 10 guy. Penix will be worth more as soon as named starter. Those getting in 2nd round are getting a steal in the end. If he goes to Vegas @ 8, he goes before Nix and probably Maye also in all drafts. Sitting a year or 2, only reason dropping. He was not injured last year, so has proven can play year without injury, so disregard that argument.
 
Well this one is off to a hot start. 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB/WR/TE 1 DST - 12 team PPR


1.1 MJH
1.2 Nabors
1.3 Keon Coleman
1.4 Worthy
1.5 Odunze
1.6 Thomas Jr
1.7 Caleb
1.8 Brooks
1.9 Benson
1.10 Ladd
1.11 Bowers
1.12 Legette
2.1 Daniels
2.2 Pearsall
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.10
2.11
2.12
Odunze at 5, Christmas came early for that Dude
 
I can sort of see betting against the 35 year old returning from major injury. But I'm not totally sure I buy the guy who had 4/6 of his college seasons end in injury as the safe young alternative to the aging vet.
I see this, but it gets lost in the discussion that he had two straight fully healthy seasons.
 
I can sort of see betting against the 35 year old returning from major injury. But I'm not totally sure I buy the guy who had 4/6 of his college seasons end in injury as the safe young alternative to the aging vet.
I see this, but it gets lost in the discussion that he had two straight fully healthy seasons.
Yeah, for sure. He dominated 19 year olds when he was 23. I'm 99% joking, but a handful of NFL teams and a ton fantasy players just spent big on Matt Mervis except with an injury history.

Edit to hate on myself: Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels don't have an injury history. They're just Matt Mervis.
 
I can sort of see betting against the 35 year old returning from major injury. But I'm not totally sure I buy the guy who had 4/6 of his college seasons end in injury as the safe young alternative to the aging vet.
I see this, but it gets lost in the discussion that he had two straight fully healthy seasons.
Yeah, for sure. He dominated 19 year olds when he was 23. I'm 99% joking, but a handful of NFL teams and a ton fantasy players just spent big on Matt Mervis except with an injury history.
Sure, but that's a different risk than injury
 
Ongoing Empire league draft. 12 team, ppr, superflex.

1.1 Caleb
1.2 MHJ
1.3 Nabers
1.4 Daniels
1.5 JJ McCarthy
1.6 Bowers
1.7 Odunze
1.8 Maye
1.9 Brooks
1.10 Thomas
1.11 Benson
1.12 McConkey

2.1 Worthy
2.2 Coleman
2.3 Pearsall
2.4 Nix
2.5 Legette
2.6 Penix
2.7 Corum
2.8 Wright
2.9 Lloyd
2.10 Mitchell
2.11 Polk
2.12 Wilson

3.1 Jermaine Burton

I'm up at 3.2 and debating between Troy Franklin and Ben Sinnott (I have a TE need).
It’s crazy to me that Troy is still available.

Tex
 
Rattler was a 5th round pick. Not the #8 overall. So him going round later or more should happen. He is guaranteed nothing on talent alone.
Kind of missing my point.

It’s not at all surprising that Rattler is going in the 3rd. But at least there’s a better than average chance he’s playing this year, and IMO a very likely chance he’s staring next year.

The point was that with virtually no chance of starting, Pennix should probably be going right around the same point as Rattler.
 
Rattler was a 5th round pick. Not the #8 overall. So him going round later or more should happen. He is guaranteed nothing on talent alone.
Kind of missing my point.

It’s not at all surprising that Rattler is going in the 3rd. But at least there’s a better than average chance he’s playing this year, and IMO a very likely chance he’s staring next year.

The point was that with virtually no chance of starting, Pennix should probably be going right around the same point as Rattler.
This was said about Jalen Hurts with Carson Wentz and Jordan Love with Aaron Rodgers. I'm trying to snag Cousins at a discount and draft Penix at a discount.
 
This was said about Jalen Hurts with Carson Wentz and Jordan Love with Aaron Rodgers. I'm trying to snag Cousins at a discount and draft Penix at a discount.
I don’t see anyone selling Cousins cheap headed into the 1st year of a great situation with Bijan, London, & Pitts.

And with Pennix an early 2nd round pick, I don’t see a buy-low on him either.
 
10 team PPR SF. Team numbers in brackets. In draft trades noted where they took place

(1) 1.01 Caleb Williams
(2) 1.02 Marvin Harrison Jr
(3) 1.03 Malik Nabers
(6) 1.04 Jayden Daniels
(5) 1.05 Drake Maye
(6) 1.06 JJ McCarthy
(7) 1.07 Rome Odunze
(1) 1.08 Brock Bowers
(1) 1.09 Ladd McConkey
(1) 1.10 Xavier Worthy
TRADE - Team 4 sends 2.01 and 4.10 to team 3 for 2.03 and 4.03
(3) 2.01 Jonathan Brooks
(2) 2.02 Trey Benson
(4) 2.03 Brian Thomas
(3) 2.04 Bo Nix
TRADE - Team 4 sends 2.05, 4.03 and 5.04 to team 3 for 2.08, 3.09 and 4.10
(3) 2.05 Michael Penix
(7) 2.06 Keon Coleman
(7) 2.07 Ricky Pearsall
(4) 2.08 Blake Corum
TRADE - Team 4 sends 2.09 to team 9 for a 2025 2nd
(9) 2.09 Xavier Legette
(3) 2.10 Marshawn Lloyd
(1) 3.01 Jalynn Polk
(3) 3.02 Ben Sinnott
(4) 3.03 Jaylen Wright
(9) 3.04 Jermaine Burton
(1) 3.05 Bucky Irving
TRADE - Team 6 sends 3.06 and Jonathan Taylor to team 9 for Brandon Aiyuk and a 2025 2nd
(9) 3.06 Adonai Mitchell
(7) 3.07 Roman Wilson
(8) 3.08 Troy Franklin
TRADE - Team 4 sends 3.09 to team 5 for 4.06 and 5.05
(5) 3.09 Jalen McMillan
(6) 3.10 Malachi Corley
(1) 4.01 Ray Davis
(2) 4.02 Kimani Vidal
(3) 4.03 Javon Baker
TRADE - Team 9 sends 4.04 to team 10 for Dontayvion Wicks
(10) 4.04 Jatavion Sanders
(5) 4.05 Theo Johnson
(4) 4.06 Braelon Allen
(2) 4.07 Spencer Rattler
(8) 4.08 Devontez Walker
(3) 4.09 Luke McCaffrey
(4) 4.10 Isaac Guerendo
(1) 5.01 Will Shipley
TRADE - Team 2 sends 5.02 to team 3 for 5.03 and 5.04
(3) 5.02 Tyrone Tracy
(2) 5.03 Malik Washington
(2) 5.04 Audric Estime
TRADE - Team 2 sends Audric Estime to team 10 for a 2025 4th
(4) 5.05 Jared Wiley
(6) 5.06 Tom Brady
(7) 5.07 Louis Rees-Zammit
(8) 5.08 Joe Milton
(9) 5.09 Erick All
(4) 5.10 Rasheen Ali

Just for fun, I made a list of all the pre-draft trades that involved draft picks, mainly as an exercise to see what sort of wheeling and dealing has gone down. All 2024 picks sent are the team's own unless stated, owners of other year's picks not listed as seems less relevant for this exercise:

2022 in season
3 receives Russell Wilson and a 2024 3rd, 9 receives Dak Prescott
10 receives David Montgomery, 6 receives a 2024 2nd
8 receives Isaiah Likely and a 2025 3rd, 9 receives a 2024 2nd
10 receives Mike White, 9 receives a 2023 4th and 2024 3rd
8 receives Christian Kirk and a 2024 2nd (from team 8), 9 receives a 2024 1st
2023 off season
4 receives Isaiah Pacheco, 3 receives Nyheim Hines and a 2024 2nd
4 receives Trey McBride, Skyy Moore and a 2024 2nd, 9 receives Mike Evans and Darren Waller
6 receives Saquon Barkley and a 2024 3rd (from team 10), 9 receives Rhamondre Stevenson and a 2024 2nd (from team 10)
3 receives a 2023 1st and 2024 2nd (from team 10), 9 receives a 2023 1st
9 receives Brandon Aiyuk and a 2024 3rd, team 5 receives Alexander Mattison
4 receives Hollywood Brown, Todd Huntley and a 2024 2nd, 5 receives Alvin Kamara, Skyy Moore and Bailey Zappe
6 receives Ezekiel Elliott, 5 receives a 2024 4th
9 receives Terry McLaurin and a 2024 2nd, 1 receives DK Metcalf and a 2024 3rd (from team 5)
2023 in season
4 receives Jamies Winston, 9 receives a 2024 4th
2 receives a 2024 2nd, 6 receives a 2024 3rd and David Njoku
10 receives Cooper Kupp, 1 receives a 2024 1st
9 receives Donta Foreman, 3 receives a 2024 4th
6 receives Sam Howell, 9 receives a 2024 3rd (from team 2) and 2025 2nd
9 receives Mark Andrews, 8 receives a 2024 1st, another 2024 1st (from team 8) and Marvin Mims
6 receives Matthew Stafford and Stefon Diggs, 5 receives George Pickens and a 2024 1st
3 receives a 2024 2nd, 8 receives Evan Engram
9 receives Logan Thomas, 3 receives a 2024 3rd (from team 2)
7 receives Jahan Dotson and a 2024 2nd (from team 6), 2 receives Keenan Allen and a 2024 4th
1 receives Justin Fields, a 2024 1st and another 2024 1st (from team 9), 8 receives Josh Allen
2024 off season
4 receives Brock Purdy and a 2024 2nd (from team 1), 9 receives a 2024 1st
10 receives Jamies Winston, 4 receives a 2024 5th
3 receives Dameon Pierce, 4 receives a 2024 3rd
10 receives Miles Sanders, 4 receives a 2024 4th
4 receives Khalil Shakir and a 2026 4th, 9 receives a 2024 3rd and 2026 5th
9 receives AJ Brown, 6 receives a 2024 1st (from team 4)
 
Rattler was a 5th round pick. Not the #8 overall. So him going round later or more should happen. He is guaranteed nothing on talent alone.
Kind of missing my point.

It’s not at all surprising that Rattler is going in the 3rd. But at least there’s a better than average chance he’s playing this year, and IMO a very likely chance he’s staring next year.

The point was that with virtually no chance of starting, Pennix should probably be going right around the same point as Rattler.
Disagree. Would not surprise me to see Saints draft QB next year. The investment in Rattler is small. They have no issue turning elsewhere. There has been 127 QBs drafted in round 5 or later since 2000. How much success. Tom Brady in 2000, Marc Bulger 2000, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Another chart says 132 QBs in round 4 or later since 2000. 2 All Pro and 12 Pro Bowls.

Best ones
Round 5 Sam Howell
Round 6 Gardner Minshew, Tyrod Taylor, Brady, Bulger.
Round 7 Brock Purdy, Matt Cassell,

Great list since 2001. I know lots of busts in round 1 but much success also.
Allen (1), Mahomes(1), Burrow(1), Stroud(1), Jackson(1), Herbert(1), Hurts(2), Love(1), Richardson(1), Goff(1), Prescott(3), Lawrence(1), Murray(1), Tua(1), Purdy(7), Stafford(1), Rodgers(1), Cousins(4), Levis(2), Carr(2), Watson(1), Mayfield(1), Young(1), Smith(2), Jones(1), Fields(1) plus 5 who probably start in this years draft.

24 of 31 in 1st round. 4 more in 2nd.

Give me the 1st round QB a round ahead of the 5th rounder for fun. I will take my chances of Penix over Rattler for that price. Good luck with Rattlers chances. The odds not in his favour but maybe another Purdy. But could be Travis or Pratt and they are even better value
 
Another 12 team PPR 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB/WR/TE 1 DST League started this AM


1.1 MH
1.2 Nabors
1.3 Odunze
1.4 Thomas Jr
1.5 Brooks
1.6 Coleman
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.10
1.11
1.12
 
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Rodgers signed a 3 yr extension with GB in 2022. Lasted one season and gone. Was 3 yr 150.8 million contract. He was 38 and coming off some injuries. Rodgers >>> Cousins.
Rodgers situation and Cousins situation are totally different. This is a terrible comparison. Rodgers wanted out and forced his way out. That is why he lasted one season on that 3-yr contract. I doubt Cousins is going to try and force his way out of his contract after one year.
 
Give me the 1st round QB a round ahead of the 5th rounder for fun. I will take my chances of Penix over Rattler for that price. Good luck with Rattlers chances. The odds not in his favour but maybe another Purdy. But could be Travis or Pratt and they are even better value
All things being equal.......of course you want the first rounder over the fifth rounder. However, not all things are equal here. Given their situations and path to play time Rattler is likely a better value pick. You will likely know quickly if he has any shot to be serviceable where you will likely have to wait 3 years to even know what Penix looks like on the field.
 

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