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Preliminary MUST-HAVE Guy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JD8p
- Start date
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
James Jones should be targeted early, Lamar Miller, also like Vereen but Ridley will be the main guy, Vereen good in PPR but still a crapshoot week to week.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
When I think "MUST-HAVE," I think about those guys who could be #1 at their position and don't offer much downside. Not sleepers.
Where is Peyton Manning going? He now has 3 WRs that were top ten in 2012...
Anyone think Calvin Johnson can't have the TDs from 2011 AND the yards from 2012? He was tackled at the 1 five times in 2012. He scored 9 times in the first 6 games in 2011 when the Lions had a legitimate threat out of the backfield. Enter Reggie Bush.
Jimmy Graham had 99/1,319/11 the last time Payton was his HC/OC, and with Gronk ailing he could be far and away the top TE. WR1 numbers from my mandatory TE spot? Yes, please.
Doug Martin was RB3 without Carl Nicks, Davin Joseph, or a defense that could get the offense the ball back. He's young, talented, on a good team, and offers little risk compared to some RBs who may go ahead of him.
Where is Peyton Manning going? He now has 3 WRs that were top ten in 2012...
Anyone think Calvin Johnson can't have the TDs from 2011 AND the yards from 2012? He was tackled at the 1 five times in 2012. He scored 9 times in the first 6 games in 2011 when the Lions had a legitimate threat out of the backfield. Enter Reggie Bush.
Jimmy Graham had 99/1,319/11 the last time Payton was his HC/OC, and with Gronk ailing he could be far and away the top TE. WR1 numbers from my mandatory TE spot? Yes, please.
Doug Martin was RB3 without Carl Nicks, Davin Joseph, or a defense that could get the offense the ball back. He's young, talented, on a good team, and offers little risk compared to some RBs who may go ahead of him.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Frank Black
Footballguy
Are you ruling out Dickson?
EBF
Footballguy
I like Pitta this season too. Dickson was a non-factor last season. The Ravens lost Boldin and didn't bring in anyone to fill the void. I think Pitta will be the main beneficiary.
6'4" 245 with 4.6 speed. Fluid athlete with solid hands. Averaged 7.19 yards per target last season, which is roughly on par with what you expect from a typical high level TE.
Witten - 6.93
Graham - 7.27
Gonzo - 7.5
Daniels - 6.95
Olsen - 8.1
Give him 25-30% of Boldin's targets and he could be one of the receptions/yardage leaders among TEs this year.
6'4" 245 with 4.6 speed. Fluid athlete with solid hands. Averaged 7.19 yards per target last season, which is roughly on par with what you expect from a typical high level TE.
Witten - 6.93
Graham - 7.27
Gonzo - 7.5
Daniels - 6.95
Olsen - 8.1
Give him 25-30% of Boldin's targets and he could be one of the receptions/yardage leaders among TEs this year.
I also think that firing Cam Cameron really helped the whole offense in general. Also agree that the Boldim trade benefited Pitta big time since Boldin is almost like a TE with the way he plays.
KrazyKyle
Footballguy
When I think of must-have guys I tend to think of handcuffs instead of individual players. We saw it today with Arian Foster(2 years ago as well). When your first round RB goes down, it is essential to have his backup. So in this situation, I want guys that are proven versus unproven talents.
If you draft Foster, you must own Tate, even if you have to reach for him a round or two early. The same for the following:
Rice = Pierce
McCoy = Brown
Spiller = Jackson
Ridley = Vareen
Gore = James
The rest of the rbs might not have a clear cut back up or their backup might not have the talent to warrant an early selection.
Of the individual players I "must-have", Josh Gordon is a popular one and his ADP might rise too high to be considered later down the road.
Kenny Britt has the talent to be a top WR, gamble is worth it.
Brian Quick anyone?
Jordan Cameron!
All based off redraft leagues of coarse...
If you draft Foster, you must own Tate, even if you have to reach for him a round or two early. The same for the following:
Rice = Pierce
McCoy = Brown
Spiller = Jackson
Ridley = Vareen
Gore = James
The rest of the rbs might not have a clear cut back up or their backup might not have the talent to warrant an early selection.
Of the individual players I "must-have", Josh Gordon is a popular one and his ADP might rise too high to be considered later down the road.
Kenny Britt has the talent to be a top WR, gamble is worth it.
Brian Quick anyone?
Jordan Cameron!
All based off redraft leagues of coarse...
This only holds true for guys that have clear backups/handcuffs.
There are a lot of teams where we don't know who the next man up would be, or where the next man up would be a committee of 2-3 guys and it may not even be worth a roster spot to take one of them.
Sure, but if there is basically zero chance of the player being there next time you pick, it isn't reaching at all. Guys like Doug Martin aren't really players you can reach for.
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
How about Danario Alexander? I'd love to have him at his current ADP (90ish). Ideally draft him as WR3 or even WR4 with WR1 potential. Once the 2nd half of the season rolled around he was a monster, and quickly became Rivers' favorite target once he realized Gates is no longer a stud. I don't think that changes this year even with the new WR talent in SD. Sure, there's the injury concerns, but well worth the risk for a WR3/4.
I would have a hard time passing on Steven Jackson if he is available in the second round......no way he gets by me if he somehow makes it to the third
Why is Olsen's average the main takeaway?
Pitta averaged X YPT, here are big name TEs that averaged around X YPT. So Pitta is not horrible. Given that he is not horrible, if you bump his targets because the WR that just left functioned as a TE in his route tree he will do better than last year when he was quite serviceable but inconsistent.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Fair enough, but if I fail to get Dennis Pitta in my drafts I doubt I'll be too upset.
Apparently I just don't like the name of the thread.
"Preliminary Undervalued Guy"
"Preliminary Sleepers"
Dennis Pitta isn't "MUST-HAVE"
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Because Olsen is also a slam dunk value pick as a late starting TE. 1st round talent, QB with significant room to grow as a passer, lack of competition for targets (and if Smith slips a bit more at 34 Olsen might actually be the top targeted guy overall there). Olsen is an afterthought, he's definitely not a sexy pick, but outside of the obvious big guns at TE he appears to have as high a floor and ceiling as anyone out there. Olsen is probably going to be both cheaper and better than Dennis Pitta IMO.
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Thanks for the interpretation, that helped. In a standard league, I don't think that there is much separation between the two (so not a must have for me) but I definitely get the argument for Pitta getting a somewhat substantial bump this year.
If you only look at YPT, I don't think it gives the whole picture. I think the YPA for Newton was 8.0 and Flacco was 7.2 last year - so I don't know if we can say Olsen is a better talent based on last year's production and was more based on QB and offense.
When you look at opportunity, I don't think there are many reasons to expect Olsen's role to grow - Chud is gone and they are trying to establish the running game more.
For Pitta, Boldin is gone and last year Pitta and Boldin seemed to trade off on who was having big games which makes sense given the type of WR Boldin had become. All of the current options for the WR2 spot seem to be much speedier than Boldin and would expect more downfield routes leaving the underneath to Pitta. I think a 80/800 season is certainly within the realm of possibility for Pitta.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
with the Gronk question marks and Ahernandez always a question mark I think Jimmy Graham will give you a positional advantage at TE over everyone that doesnt have Witten.
Spare me the "TE is deep" elite production at TE isnt, Ill snag Jimmy in Round2.
Spare me the "TE is deep" elite production at TE isnt, Ill snag Jimmy in Round2.
kutta
Footballguy
Olsen's average was the main takeaway precisely because he didn't average "around X YPT". He's more than half a yard ahead the second best (that'd be first-team AP All Pro and future first-ballot Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez), and a full yard ahead of some (8-time pro bowler Jason Witten). And sure, Cam Newton had a huge YPA number last year, but those other TEs were catching balls from Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Matt Schaub- that's quite an impressive collection of signal callers. And even if you control for YPA, Olsen was the only guy on that list to average more yards per target than his quarterback averaged per attempt.
I knew Olsen had scored almost as many fantasy points as Jason Witten last year (non-PPR), but I hadn't realized he'd been so efficient with his targets. I sort of got the impression that he was compiling stats just because there was no one else in Carolina to throw to once you got past Steve Smith. Now I'm reevaluating and wondering if Olsen might be even more undervalued than I initially thought.
So the disclaimer up front is that I don't have a conclusion in mind but I am going to push back for purposes of continuing the conversation and see if we can better understand Olsen's 2013 prospects.Adam Harstad said:
In terms of YPA of the quarterback, I don't think the quality of the QB matters as much as the mobility of the QB and how much they run read option which seems a little counter intuitive. PFF's draft guide has an interesting article comparing actual YPA to estimated YPA based on average depth of target. I don't want to give away too much of their pay material but Newton is in the top 5, 4 of the top 5 have reputations as mobile QBs who run read option and the last one is a sneaky mobile QB who I think ran some read option last year. What this means is that the receivers of mobile QBs are going to put up better YPT even if they run the same depth of routes. This makes some sense as the D can't play as much zone and need to assign someone to the QB. That said, maybe that doesn't account for all of the difference.
You mention that Olsen was the only TE of the group to post a better YPT than YPA of his QB, but the magnitude of this has to be small right? Pitta when rounded had the same YPT as the YPA of his QB and Olsen's YPT was only 0.1 yds better than Newton's YPA - probably not statistically significant.
The next question becomes how consistent is YPT for TEs year to year? I haven't done a ton of data work here but took a look at 2012 and 2011 for TEs in the top 80 in each year for receiving yards. This returns 10 TEs and doing a single variable regression yields a r-squared of 61.5% which seems really good, but using the regression to predict Olsen's next year's YPT would drop his YPT down to 7.6 (similar idea as the regression to the mean article Chase Stuart just wrote I think). Of note, Witten and Owen Daniels both had YPT of over 8 in 2011 and dropped to under 7 in 2012. One limitation to note is that 2011 may not be the ideal starting point for this analysis given the massive passing game #s often attributed to the lockout.
What do you think the opportunity part of the Olsen analysis is for 2013, do you see him getting more targets? I ask because I haven't seen much written about him this year other than he was good last year and expect more of the same. I do think that Chud leaving and trying to establish a more traditional ground game will cap the upside in his targets even if it doesn't decrease the total #. I think it is quite likely that Olsen has a better YPT than Pitta this year, but thinking Pitta will see more targets.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
WR Torrey Smith
I think he might have more targets than any other WR in the NFL this year. Flacco will want to prove he's a passing QB, not just a game manager and with Boldin gone ... love Smith this year
I think he might have more targets than any other WR in the NFL this year. Flacco will want to prove he's a passing QB, not just a game manager and with Boldin gone ... love Smith this year
msudaisy26
Footballguy
It really isn't reaching if you pick a player that won't be there in the next round.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I think Bolden or Blount will be the guy to own if Ridley goes down, Vereen will be the change of pace and Danny Woodhead for the team barring multiple injuries in the backfield.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I like the thought of reaching for him and I think he will get more targets but leading the league won't happen. Rice and Pitta will eat up too many targets for Smith to lead the league in targets. The talent of Rice and Pierce will command 30+ carries every week.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think people will end up asking why Danny Amendola was available in the 6th or 7th round and why they didn't draft him.
The roster changes in NE saw almost 3,000 receiving yards leave town. The 2 main returnees (Gronk and Hernandez) have had surgery and have struggled to stay on the field. The other WRs are either rookies, retreads, or otherwise bit players. Even Troy Brown caught 90-100 passes playing with Tom Brady.
As outlined in several other threads, Amendola had two really freak injuries. IMO, that does not make him injury prone. Hernandez with ankle, hip, shoulder injuries (way more common) would qualify as injury prone. Gronk also has had a ton of injury related issues and hopefully by now people will start calling him injury prone.
The Pats passing attack is not going to go from elite to invisibile. Given the lay of the land, Amendola is in line to put up Welker like numbers. I don't care what he did in STL. Welker didn't so much in MIA either. I would project him to be a low end WR1 in 0 ppr leagues and Top 5 in ppr leagues.
The roster changes in NE saw almost 3,000 receiving yards leave town. The 2 main returnees (Gronk and Hernandez) have had surgery and have struggled to stay on the field. The other WRs are either rookies, retreads, or otherwise bit players. Even Troy Brown caught 90-100 passes playing with Tom Brady.
As outlined in several other threads, Amendola had two really freak injuries. IMO, that does not make him injury prone. Hernandez with ankle, hip, shoulder injuries (way more common) would qualify as injury prone. Gronk also has had a ton of injury related issues and hopefully by now people will start calling him injury prone.
The Pats passing attack is not going to go from elite to invisibile. Given the lay of the land, Amendola is in line to put up Welker like numbers. I don't care what he did in STL. Welker didn't so much in MIA either. I would project him to be a low end WR1 in 0 ppr leagues and Top 5 in ppr leagues.
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jurb26
Footballguy
What is going to be the pecking order for the WRs? Currently I'm seeing M. Jenkins atop the depth chart as a starter along with Amendola. Could Jenkins have some sleeper value or will he be phased out by the time the season roles around?
JHuber77
Footballguy
If Ridley goes down, it will be Vareen as he has the best hands of the bunch. Bolden may be the goal line back, but Vareen would get all the early down work. The patriots have shown that it doesn't matter about size when it comes to their RB's. Vareen from what I understand blocks better than the others. In a system that features an elite QB, blocking is a must
Bamac
Footballguy
I've been drinking the Amendola Kool Aid for a while. Looks like I've finally found out the guy who's been mixing it.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
From what I have heard, Jenkins is the only other receiver really doing much consistently right now. The rookies have had some trouble adjusting to the wrinkles of the offense, Edleman hasn't been practicing, and T.J. Moe tore his Achilles. I would have thought Donald Jones had something to offer, but I haven't heard much about him or how he's been adjusting.
As for the depth chart, I would mostly ignore who's where right now. Next week it could be completely different. For example, last year Vereen was the #1 RB at this stage (at least on the depth chart and in practice reps).
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Unless your league gives points for downfield blocking, I'm going to come down on the "will be phased out by the time the season rolls around" side of this equation.
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
My preliminary must have guy is Gronkowski, though his injuries have anchored me into a wait and see mode. I do not know if I agree with the concept presented here, that picking your guy where he should be drafted doesn't really follow the theme of this thread, but he would be a second pick for me (10 teams) and feel like that is where he fits. This season is more of a question mark with his injuries, and I would have to think hard if Graham is there, but my preliminary view (end of last season) was Gronkowski.
Not to get too off topic, but that high YPT for Olsen had a lot to do with Chud and how his offense utilizes the TE in the vertical passing game. Positive sign for Jordan Cameron this season.
Bruno Tataglia
Footballguy
My definition of 'must-have' - 1st 3 rounds - if available, I'll bypass anyone else in that round for them (for example, I would take Dez Bryant in the 2nd over any WR not named Calvin Johnson). After 1st 3 rounds, it just means I'll likely take them at least a full round or two ahead of consensus to make sure I don't get beat to the punch. Again, just because I list Bradshaw doesn't mean I have him highly valued, but I'd definitely take him as early as the 9th (in a 12 teamer) if none of my higher-ranked guys are around. I have a strong strong bias for upside plays once I have my starting roster determined. I don't need a 'safe' WR3/WR4 riding my bench. I can always drop an upside play that doesn't work. Some of this is more 'undervalued' than 'must-have' as there are way too many players to fit on my bench that I would love to have. I will likely have a lot of these players on my benches. That said, here's my current list: QB: Tony Romo (not 'must-have' as I prefer 11 QBs over him, but I seem to end up with him as my QB (in 12 team 1 QB leagues) almost every year as I'm almost always the last to grab a QB1 as I go QBBC, and I love Romo as the base for my QBBC)Ryan Tannehill (will likely have him as my QB2 in a lot of leagues; has a lot of potential to break out, has enough weapons to be relevant)EJ Manuel (in my 2 QB keeper league only, and only late, but upside potential is there) RB
avid Wilson (elite talent - faster version of Bradshaw. Andre Brown concern is minimal). I see he's being valued as a mid-RB2, I have him as a clear back-end RB1 with upside to be #1. Lower floor than SJax but much higher ceiling.Le'Veon Bell (has been handed the starter's job on a silver platter, has quick burst for guy his size (think: slightly larger, slightly slower Doug Martin). I'll try to get him as my RB3 in round 5, maybe reaching in round 4 before I have a WR2.
Eddie Lacy (I think the knocks on him are due to dynasty concerns. I think he's the workhorse until the injuries come (at which point his career will flame out) as Franklin is groomed to take over).Zac Stacy (I think he's way more talented than Pead or Richardson and is going to be their starting RB by mid-season, and won't relinquish it for years).Bryce Brown (enough carries in that backfield, amazingly enough, to support an RB1 AND RB2)Ahmad Bradshaw (assuming he doesn't go to a team with a well-established starter, I think his A++ blocking gives him all passing downs and 1st chance of unseating the incumbent(s). I'm drafting him even if he's unsigned)Ronnie Hillman (chance to take over when (not if) Ball fumbles/misses a blocking assignment/has <3 Y/C for 2 quarters). WRez Bryant (I think he rivals Calvin for elite athleticism and he's gained Romo's trust - will be a target monster like Calvin/Marshall). Other than 9 RBs (Morris is the main consensus RB I'll pass on) and Calvin, I'll take him over anyone.Larry Fitzgerald (Carson Palmer >>> that mess last year. Physical talent didn't go away - catchable passes did).Danny Amendola (The Patriots still have Tom Brady and Belichick last I checked; when healthy, he'll be top-10 WR). Pierre Garcon (as long as the foot is manageable, RG3 to Garcon is a connection to love)Torrey Smith (Boldin gone, Flacco confident, Smith jumps to mid-WR2 value)Danario Alexander (ride him til he gets injured, then drop him)Cecil Shorts (amazing that people are still sleeping on him after that run the second half of last season)Steve Smith (Carolina put away that awful offense they ran for awhile last year - discounted due to age, but I think he's still solid this year. Weekly WR2 start).Mike Williams (Doug Martin, VJax double-teamed, upside if Freeman figures it out is worth a reach for him)Tavon Austin (the Rams have their Randall Cobb/Percy Harvin).Josh Gordon (800 yards with no training camp and awful vanilla play-calling; high high upside here)Steve Johnson (assuming Manuel gets the job, upside with decent coaching and Spiller keeping team's honest; Kolb is awful, and Johnson loses his upside with him at QB)Kenny Britt (supposedly healthy, sky's the limit on his upside)DeAndre Hopkins (lower upside than Britt, but if Houston decides to morph out of the run first, run 2nd, run 3rd offense, he'll be #1 beneficiary. Andre Johnson can't do any better than last season)Rueben Randle (Nicks/Cruz situation is giving him an awesome opportunity)Brian Hartline (I think the difference between Wallace and Hartline will be much smaller than most people expect at season's end; Hartline is a solid 2nd WR. He was horribly miscast as WR1 last year). TE - this is less 'must have' than the above, as I figure I'll usually wait until at least 9 TEs are taken before taking one (depending on who's available, I may take a 2nd due to upside potential for a Gronk/Graham, but other than Myers/Cook, I'll likely just keep the others on speed-dial if they have a decent game at the start of the season)Kyle Rudolph (Can jump-ball with the best of them)Brandon Myers (Eli likes his TEs, and Nicks/Cruz situations might get messy)Jared Cook (Elite athleticism, away from the awful offensive situation)Tyler Eifert (if he breaks out, it won't be til mid-season, but he's going to more than unseat Gresham and can become Dalton's underneath safety blanket)Jordan Cameron (I love the similarities he has to Graham's physical ability - highly dependent on Weeden improving).Travis Kelce (2013 is probably too early for his breakout, but Reid will make sure TEs are used, Alex Smith is a checkdown king, and this guy is the best of the Chiefs' TEs)
avid Wilson (elite talent - faster version of Bradshaw. Andre Brown concern is minimal). I see he's being valued as a mid-RB2, I have him as a clear back-end RB1 with upside to be #1. Lower floor than SJax but much higher ceiling.Le'Veon Bell (has been handed the starter's job on a silver platter, has quick burst for guy his size (think: slightly larger, slightly slower Doug Martin). I'll try to get him as my RB3 in round 5, maybe reaching in round 4 before I have a WR2.Eddie Lacy (I think the knocks on him are due to dynasty concerns. I think he's the workhorse until the injuries come (at which point his career will flame out) as Franklin is groomed to take over).Zac Stacy (I think he's way more talented than Pead or Richardson and is going to be their starting RB by mid-season, and won't relinquish it for years).Bryce Brown (enough carries in that backfield, amazingly enough, to support an RB1 AND RB2)Ahmad Bradshaw (assuming he doesn't go to a team with a well-established starter, I think his A++ blocking gives him all passing downs and 1st chance of unseating the incumbent(s). I'm drafting him even if he's unsigned)Ronnie Hillman (chance to take over when (not if) Ball fumbles/misses a blocking assignment/has <3 Y/C for 2 quarters). WR
ez Bryant (I think he rivals Calvin for elite athleticism and he's gained Romo's trust - will be a target monster like Calvin/Marshall). Other than 9 RBs (Morris is the main consensus RB I'll pass on) and Calvin, I'll take him over anyone.Larry Fitzgerald (Carson Palmer >>> that mess last year. Physical talent didn't go away - catchable passes did).Danny Amendola (The Patriots still have Tom Brady and Belichick last I checked; when healthy, he'll be top-10 WR). Pierre Garcon (as long as the foot is manageable, RG3 to Garcon is a connection to love)Torrey Smith (Boldin gone, Flacco confident, Smith jumps to mid-WR2 value)Danario Alexander (ride him til he gets injured, then drop him)Cecil Shorts (amazing that people are still sleeping on him after that run the second half of last season)Steve Smith (Carolina put away that awful offense they ran for awhile last year - discounted due to age, but I think he's still solid this year. Weekly WR2 start).Mike Williams (Doug Martin, VJax double-teamed, upside if Freeman figures it out is worth a reach for him)Tavon Austin (the Rams have their Randall Cobb/Percy Harvin).Josh Gordon (800 yards with no training camp and awful vanilla play-calling; high high upside here)Steve Johnson (assuming Manuel gets the job, upside with decent coaching and Spiller keeping team's honest; Kolb is awful, and Johnson loses his upside with him at QB)Kenny Britt (supposedly healthy, sky's the limit on his upside)DeAndre Hopkins (lower upside than Britt, but if Houston decides to morph out of the run first, run 2nd, run 3rd offense, he'll be #1 beneficiary. Andre Johnson can't do any better than last season)Rueben Randle (Nicks/Cruz situation is giving him an awesome opportunity)Brian Hartline (I think the difference between Wallace and Hartline will be much smaller than most people expect at season's end; Hartline is a solid 2nd WR. He was horribly miscast as WR1 last year). TE - this is less 'must have' than the above, as I figure I'll usually wait until at least 9 TEs are taken before taking one (depending on who's available, I may take a 2nd due to upside potential for a Gronk/Graham, but other than Myers/Cook, I'll likely just keep the others on speed-dial if they have a decent game at the start of the season)Kyle Rudolph (Can jump-ball with the best of them)Brandon Myers (Eli likes his TEs, and Nicks/Cruz situations might get messy)Jared Cook (Elite athleticism, away from the awful offensive situation)Tyler Eifert (if he breaks out, it won't be til mid-season, but he's going to more than unseat Gresham and can become Dalton's underneath safety blanket)Jordan Cameron (I love the similarities he has to Graham's physical ability - highly dependent on Weeden improving).Travis Kelce (2013 is probably too early for his breakout, but Reid will make sure TEs are used, Alex Smith is a checkdown king, and this guy is the best of the Chiefs' TEs)
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Khy
Footballguy
Jamaal Charles, I'm really hoping I don't land the #1 or 2 pick in our draft this year. I want Charles but I don't want to be tempted by ADP or Foster sitting there at 1 & 2. I'm hoping to land around pick 3 or 4. If I'm being optimistic with my first 3-4 rounds I'm really hoping they pan out similar to last years with slightly different players. We can start 3RBs so I tend to go RB, RB, RB, WR. Unless someone like Graham or Gronk slip further than they should or same with a WR I'm super high on. Otherwise, I prefer the depth at RB as there's a lot deeper talent at WR these days and QB I don't even care about, I'll wait till the 8-9th round and take whoever is there. Last season my first four rounds in my redraft league went:
Rd1: Foster
Rd2: Lynch
Rd3: T Rich
Rd4: Harvin
and it was awesome, didn't lose a game until Harvin went down. This year I'm hoping for something along the lines of this:
Rd1: Charles - I have him as #1 on my board right now. I just have this feeling with Reid coming in that he's going to hit huge this year.
Rd2: David Wilson/Chris Johnson - One of these guys will be here, Wilson really isn't a 2nd Round pick right now in most redrafts but if I want him I have to take him in the 2nd round if he's there. There are a TON of Giants homers in my redraft league (myself included). I just love his upside this year and see him finishing out Top 5. If he's gone cause someone gets overzealous Johnson is probably someone I'm targeting.
Rd3: Darren Sproles/Le'Veon Bell/Montee Ball/Percy Harvin - Main reason I have Sproles this high is that we're in a return yardage league. Sproles is typically around Top 10 for the past few years in our league, somehow he always falls though. It's looking more and more everyday like Ball is running away with the job in Denver. Depending on how that plays out I could see him being my "TRich" pick this year. I like his upside and talent a lot more than Bell's if he gets the job.
Rd4: Tavon Austin - As said above return yardage league and heavy at that. Depending on how the draft is going it's possible I even take him in Rd3 if Sproles is gone as he'll likely have more offensive production than Sproles and probably more return yardage as well. I'm just thinking I can get him this late.
So yeah, guys I'm targeting right now mainly are Charles, Wilson, Johnson and Austin. Also at TE I'm really like Finley this year if he falls which he probably will. If my first four rounds can somehow go Charles, Wilson, Johnson, Austin I'd be ecstatic.
Some late round guys I'm targeting:
QB: As I said I'm comfortable waiting at QB almost always, last year I waited until Round 9 after 13 QBs had already fell off our 12 team draft board and snagged RG3. Pretty much ran away with the season because of it. The year prior I got Matt Ryan in round 6 or 7 can't remember. Same scenario.
- Sam Bradford: Call it a gut feeling, but if I can land Bradford in the 9th round as my starting QB I'll be satisfied with it. I have a good feeling about the Rams offense this year and can easily see Bradford finally coming into his own. He's gotten MASSSSSSSSSIVEEEE upgrades at WR in Austin and Bailey and I think Stacy will be a huge help as he walks away with the job at RB. One of my long-shotish calls this year is that Bradford ends as a Top 10 fantasy QB.
- Ryan Tannenhill: If Bradford is gone Tannenhill is the guy I'm targeting. Like Bradford he got a lot of upgrades on offense this season. It sucks he lost Reggie Bush but Miller will be solid. Gaining Wallace and allowing Hartline to be the true #2 WR he's meant to be will be a big help.
RB: Obviously I don't take three RBs then stop. I'll usually go RB, RB, RB, WR, WR/TE, WR/TE, RB, QB/WR. Style drafting. So some later guys that I think will be around for me.
- Shane Vereen: Really just a feeling more so than anything, I think he takes on the Danny Woodhead role in addition to the carries he was already getting last season. High RB3 with RB2 upside if something happens to Ridley.
- Zac Stacy: Seeing a trend? Like I said on Bradford's chart I just love all the upside behind the STL offense this season. Stacy will fall to the 5th-6th rounds in my drafts if I know my fellow owners. He's has RB2/RB1 potential in my opinion. Possibility is there for an Alf Morris type of breakout.
- Guys I like that I won't draft unless something drastic happens during training camps. Andre Ellington, Bryce Brown, Jonathan Franklin, LaMichael James.
WRs: Most of these guys don't need explanations.
Cecil Shorts, TY Hilton,
Vincent Brown: Should have had a breakout year last season but didn't because of injury. High upside but SD is a landfill for talent so he'll be a late round pick if I take him. Same goes for Alexander.
Ruben Randle: Nicks hasn't played a full season in his entire career. Randle is already walking away with the WR3 duties but when (not really a matter of if) Nicks misses games he'll be a monster on side Cruz.
Josh Gordon: Most people here are high on them, they won't be in my league. I can probably get him in rounds 5-6 unless some crazy hype train starts up elsewhere.
TEs:
Brandon Myers: Eli LOVES his TE's and Myers probably has some of the better talent he's ever had at the position. He easily has TE1 potential with a TE2 floor.
Jared Cook: May finally be on a team that isn't devoid of knowing how to utilize his talent.
Rd1: Foster
Rd2: Lynch
Rd3: T Rich
Rd4: Harvin
and it was awesome, didn't lose a game until Harvin went down. This year I'm hoping for something along the lines of this:
Rd1: Charles - I have him as #1 on my board right now. I just have this feeling with Reid coming in that he's going to hit huge this year.
Rd2: David Wilson/Chris Johnson - One of these guys will be here, Wilson really isn't a 2nd Round pick right now in most redrafts but if I want him I have to take him in the 2nd round if he's there. There are a TON of Giants homers in my redraft league (myself included). I just love his upside this year and see him finishing out Top 5. If he's gone cause someone gets overzealous Johnson is probably someone I'm targeting.
Rd3: Darren Sproles/Le'Veon Bell/Montee Ball/Percy Harvin - Main reason I have Sproles this high is that we're in a return yardage league. Sproles is typically around Top 10 for the past few years in our league, somehow he always falls though. It's looking more and more everyday like Ball is running away with the job in Denver. Depending on how that plays out I could see him being my "TRich" pick this year. I like his upside and talent a lot more than Bell's if he gets the job.
Rd4: Tavon Austin - As said above return yardage league and heavy at that. Depending on how the draft is going it's possible I even take him in Rd3 if Sproles is gone as he'll likely have more offensive production than Sproles and probably more return yardage as well. I'm just thinking I can get him this late.
So yeah, guys I'm targeting right now mainly are Charles, Wilson, Johnson and Austin. Also at TE I'm really like Finley this year if he falls which he probably will. If my first four rounds can somehow go Charles, Wilson, Johnson, Austin I'd be ecstatic.
Some late round guys I'm targeting:
QB: As I said I'm comfortable waiting at QB almost always, last year I waited until Round 9 after 13 QBs had already fell off our 12 team draft board and snagged RG3. Pretty much ran away with the season because of it. The year prior I got Matt Ryan in round 6 or 7 can't remember. Same scenario.
- Sam Bradford: Call it a gut feeling, but if I can land Bradford in the 9th round as my starting QB I'll be satisfied with it. I have a good feeling about the Rams offense this year and can easily see Bradford finally coming into his own. He's gotten MASSSSSSSSSIVEEEE upgrades at WR in Austin and Bailey and I think Stacy will be a huge help as he walks away with the job at RB. One of my long-shotish calls this year is that Bradford ends as a Top 10 fantasy QB.
- Ryan Tannenhill: If Bradford is gone Tannenhill is the guy I'm targeting. Like Bradford he got a lot of upgrades on offense this season. It sucks he lost Reggie Bush but Miller will be solid. Gaining Wallace and allowing Hartline to be the true #2 WR he's meant to be will be a big help.
RB: Obviously I don't take three RBs then stop. I'll usually go RB, RB, RB, WR, WR/TE, WR/TE, RB, QB/WR. Style drafting. So some later guys that I think will be around for me.
- Shane Vereen: Really just a feeling more so than anything, I think he takes on the Danny Woodhead role in addition to the carries he was already getting last season. High RB3 with RB2 upside if something happens to Ridley.
- Zac Stacy: Seeing a trend? Like I said on Bradford's chart I just love all the upside behind the STL offense this season. Stacy will fall to the 5th-6th rounds in my drafts if I know my fellow owners. He's has RB2/RB1 potential in my opinion. Possibility is there for an Alf Morris type of breakout.
- Guys I like that I won't draft unless something drastic happens during training camps. Andre Ellington, Bryce Brown, Jonathan Franklin, LaMichael James.
WRs: Most of these guys don't need explanations.
Cecil Shorts, TY Hilton,
Vincent Brown: Should have had a breakout year last season but didn't because of injury. High upside but SD is a landfill for talent so he'll be a late round pick if I take him. Same goes for Alexander.
Ruben Randle: Nicks hasn't played a full season in his entire career. Randle is already walking away with the WR3 duties but when (not really a matter of if) Nicks misses games he'll be a monster on side Cruz.
Josh Gordon: Most people here are high on them, they won't be in my league. I can probably get him in rounds 5-6 unless some crazy hype train starts up elsewhere.
TEs:
Brandon Myers: Eli LOVES his TE's and Myers probably has some of the better talent he's ever had at the position. He easily has TE1 potential with a TE2 floor.
Jared Cook: May finally be on a team that isn't devoid of knowing how to utilize his talent.
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Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
Khy
Footballguy
Considering my leagues scoring is 10yd/1 Rec and Rushing and 20yd/1pt Returning his value is MASSIVELY higher than 96/97. Consider around 1500 yards in PR/KR (honestly a low projection for someone as talented as Austin doing both KR and PR) and say he gets 2 TDs (which I'll say is probably a low estimate). You've literally just taken whatever projections most people have for him and added 750 yards and 2 TDs to his stat line. Which takes him from a projected WR3/4 with WR2 upside to a WR2 with Elite WR1 upside. So yeah, if I get him in my 3rd or 4th round I'd be pretty happy.
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dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Those are two of my top 3 players currently available on my squad in a Keep 2 league (the other is Ray Rice) and I'm pulling my hair out whether to keep Gronk or Rice.
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