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Insoxicated
THE PROBLEM:
Not all projections are created equal. While standard projections provide you with a concrete value such as number of yards and TDs a player is expected to get... you have to read much deeper into a player to get an idea of what's behind those numbers. Sure.. he's projected to hit these levels.... but what about upside? Downside? Is this a number that he's a lock for.. or a best guess?
These sorts of things are factors that, IMHO, haven't been addressed in the FF universe as of yet. With Footballguys being among the industry leaders I'd love to see them impliment a means to show these factors in a concise, easy to understand manner.
CONCERNS:
ª Data Overload : You want to provide more information without having to search through column after column of data
• Additional Workload : This is likely something that would be impossible to do for all players.
• Lack of precision : This is more of a feel thing.. showing ballpark ranges for upside/downside as opposed to precice data points.
PROPOSED SOLUTION:
Obviously there can be such a thing as data overload and while grids of numbers upon numbers are good... I feel this sort of thing might be best respresnted visually. My idea would be a chart showing a Bell-curve sort of view. The two axis showing probability and the quantity (TD or Yards). The crest would be indicative of the likely FBG projection... with slopes to the left or right indicating a probable termination point for upside and downside. The degree of slope and distance from the FBG Projection would indicate the range up upside and downside as well as the probability of numbers along that range.
IMHO it's a rather eliegant means to get an at-a-glance take on not only a player's projected output, but he range of possibille outcomes. Factors that would need to be incorporated into this chart would be:
ª Injury Risk
• Role Stability
• Holdout Risk (them or others around them)
etc.
A SAMPLE
LINK TO SAMPLE CHARTS >
There are a few generic charts simply to show how the charts might look. I've added a few bullet points below to indicate pointers on what to read into the charts.
Once you're familiar with the player and the charts the bullets wouldn't really be needed. Seeing signifcant downside in LJ would be understood as a measure of the staff's read on his potential holdout or injury risk. A high confidence, low upside/downside chart might be indicative of a Harrison type player. A low output, high upside chart could be indicative of an unproven guy who FBG likes to breakout... or a guy who's favored to set himself apart in a RBBC battle. I see these primarly as a great means to break apart the tiers of guys projected in the same range. See who's riskier... who has more upside, etc.
Obviously these couldn't be done for every player. I'd see this as something that's added to player spotlights or even for the top players at each position (ie Top 20 QB.... 40RB....60WR....20TE). In addition the probability range of 25-75% makes it clear that these are estimates and are not to be considered the absolute upside/downside values of a player.. but more of a likely range with embedded probabilty of landing at various points within that range. The arcs don't need to be that precise... no need to plot 10 points along each arc. I think simply coming up with a projection, an upside and a downside number and then perhaps tweaking the shape of the curve on either side should provide more than enough data.
Curious what other FBGs might think of this sort of system and what it's value might be when preparing for draft day.
THoughts? Suggestions? Feedback?
Not all projections are created equal. While standard projections provide you with a concrete value such as number of yards and TDs a player is expected to get... you have to read much deeper into a player to get an idea of what's behind those numbers. Sure.. he's projected to hit these levels.... but what about upside? Downside? Is this a number that he's a lock for.. or a best guess?
These sorts of things are factors that, IMHO, haven't been addressed in the FF universe as of yet. With Footballguys being among the industry leaders I'd love to see them impliment a means to show these factors in a concise, easy to understand manner.
CONCERNS:
ª Data Overload : You want to provide more information without having to search through column after column of data
• Additional Workload : This is likely something that would be impossible to do for all players.
• Lack of precision : This is more of a feel thing.. showing ballpark ranges for upside/downside as opposed to precice data points.
PROPOSED SOLUTION:
Obviously there can be such a thing as data overload and while grids of numbers upon numbers are good... I feel this sort of thing might be best respresnted visually. My idea would be a chart showing a Bell-curve sort of view. The two axis showing probability and the quantity (TD or Yards). The crest would be indicative of the likely FBG projection... with slopes to the left or right indicating a probable termination point for upside and downside. The degree of slope and distance from the FBG Projection would indicate the range up upside and downside as well as the probability of numbers along that range.
IMHO it's a rather eliegant means to get an at-a-glance take on not only a player's projected output, but he range of possibille outcomes. Factors that would need to be incorporated into this chart would be:
ª Injury Risk
• Role Stability
• Holdout Risk (them or others around them)
etc.
A SAMPLE
LINK TO SAMPLE CHARTS >
There are a few generic charts simply to show how the charts might look. I've added a few bullet points below to indicate pointers on what to read into the charts.
Once you're familiar with the player and the charts the bullets wouldn't really be needed. Seeing signifcant downside in LJ would be understood as a measure of the staff's read on his potential holdout or injury risk. A high confidence, low upside/downside chart might be indicative of a Harrison type player. A low output, high upside chart could be indicative of an unproven guy who FBG likes to breakout... or a guy who's favored to set himself apart in a RBBC battle. I see these primarly as a great means to break apart the tiers of guys projected in the same range. See who's riskier... who has more upside, etc.
Obviously these couldn't be done for every player. I'd see this as something that's added to player spotlights or even for the top players at each position (ie Top 20 QB.... 40RB....60WR....20TE). In addition the probability range of 25-75% makes it clear that these are estimates and are not to be considered the absolute upside/downside values of a player.. but more of a likely range with embedded probabilty of landing at various points within that range. The arcs don't need to be that precise... no need to plot 10 points along each arc. I think simply coming up with a projection, an upside and a downside number and then perhaps tweaking the shape of the curve on either side should provide more than enough data.
Curious what other FBGs might think of this sort of system and what it's value might be when preparing for draft day.
THoughts? Suggestions? Feedback?
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