Projection for Toby Gerhart (1 Viewer)

[hotboyz]

What are you guys projections for Toby Gerhart? I'm struggling a little but with projections for him. Right now I have him penciled in for 1250 yds rushing 460 yds receiving on about 48 catches with about 10 Td. Do you think these numbers are being a little to aggressive?

My thinking is he's in a offense that's gonna feed him the rock I think he is what Peyton Hillis was suppose to be. I believe he's a true power back it's been a while since we have seen one. I believe he can get 300-320 carries in this offense and he's a very good RECIEVER out of the backfield. In a offense that wants to take pressure off the Qb. Seems like a setup for a good season

 

[Warhogs]

I like Toby but I think you are a bit too high in your projections. I would reduce all by about 20%. That's an awful lot of touches for a guy getting his first chance to start and 10 td in a Jacksonville offense seems pretty aggressive as well.

 

[Blackjacks]

I love Toby this year and I think he will shine with given oppurtunity.

The question with the #'s you have projected is the team he plays for.

While I agree Jax wants to rely on him and take pressure of Henne or Bortles how many games are they going to be in where they can afford t run 20 times?

I would think his touches will be in the 320 range (20 a game) instead of 20 carries you have + another 50 est catches.

320 touches at an avg of 4.5 per a touch still = almost 1450 yards total and I think 8-10 tds is a strong possibility.

I do think the Jax D will be better this year to keep them in games and I personally think Henne is a descent NFL QB.

You had him for almost projected top 5#'s as where I think top 10-15 are more realistic but if the team can be better than anticipated the upside is there.

There is upside

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I have him at 1175/10 rushing and 38/255/1 receiving.

The guy was a Heisman trophy runner up and has shown to be effective when he's had opportunities in the NFL. All indications from Jax is that the offense will run through him. I also think the passing game will show some improvement if Shorts stays healthy and with Lee and Robinson.

 

[EBF]

If he stays healthy, 1100 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards seems like a solid conservative estimate. He has the ceiling to go quite a bit higher than that if things break right.

 

[JFS171]

I'm literally on the cusp of trading him away and you guys aren't making it any easier (return is pretty nice, but I won't get into specifics). I agree JAX should be better, but that OL was literally AWFUL last year, and the team as a whole scored 7 rushing TDs. They averaged a whopping 3.3 per carry, and while the narrative of MJD falling off a cliff at 28 is convenient, I'm not sure it's completely accurate given some of the PFF advanced stats.

I think it's much more *plausible* that MJD was close to his career self (say 95%) and JAX was truly atrocious on the OL. Gerhart's going from one of the best in the league over his career in Minny to one of the worst. Their "upgrades" this year aren't anything to necessarily write home about.

I do think he'll get volume, and I think the Jags are going to try to control the ball and the clock even when trailing, so he's probably safe for ~18 carries/game on average... say 275 total on the season at maybe 3.7 conservatively, given the OL. That's still over 1,000 rushing, and he is a good receiver so another 300 or so there on 45 receptions would be nice (I don't think that's super conservative though -- he's averaged 7.8 YPR for his career again behind a MUCH better OL).

Double digit TDs I'm not sure I buy... unless the Jags take a massive step forward. Only 7 TOTAL last year rushing... maybe he gets 7-9 himself, but I don't think that's conservative. Let's say 8.

That puts him at roughly 320 touches for 1300 or so total yards and 8 TDS -- pretty nice season, but IMO there's substantial risk that team is AWFUL, the line is atrocious, and his numbers drop to barely 1,000 and 4 or 5. Just prepare accordingly.

The above is also assuming he doesn't get hurt... this article from PFF lays out some reasons for caution with Gerhart, and they're honestly hard to argue IMO:

Despite his relative inactivity Gerhart has compiled a lengthy list of ailments, including Achilles’ tendon, shoulder, and multiple ankle, knee, and hamstring injuries – one of which cost him most of last season’s final month.Predicting injuries is slightly more reliable than scratching out a living with lotto tickets, but it does give pause when a running back has trouble holding up to a light workload, and is then ticketed for 16 games of repeated slamming into walls of humanity. And make no mistake, that is his job description in Jacksonville. Plus, his impressive 4.7 yards-per-carry average was greatly aided by not doing that very thing too often.

 

[hotboyz]

Thanks guys sometimes so hard to project these guys in a new offense but for some reason this situation reminds me so much of Michael Turners situation when he went to Falcons

 

[Bob Barker]

What are you guys projections for Toby Gerhart? I'm struggling a little but with projections for him. Right now I have him penciled in for 1250 yds rushing 460 yds receiving on about 48 catches with about 10 Td. Do you think these numbers are being a little to aggressive?

My thinking is he's in a offense that's gonna feed him the rock I think he is what Peyton Hillis was suppose to be. I believe he's a true power back it's been a while since we have seen one. I believe he can get 300-320 carries in this offense and he's a very good RECIEVER out of the backfield. In a offense that wants to take pressure off the Qb. Seems like a setup for a good season

I think thats way too high to have him projected, maybe his ceiling but those numbers would likely put him around RB5 for the season and everything would have to work out perfect for that to happen. with those numbers there is probably less than 10% chance he exceeds your projections. It should be closer to 50/50 whether a players exceeds or falls short of his projections

 

[Greggity]

The dude is the "white steed"!! He has the eye of the tiger! 1500 yards and 12-14 td's. Im all over his steedness!

 

[hotboyz]

What are you guys projections for Toby Gerhart? I'm struggling a little but with projections for him. Right now I have him penciled in for 1250 yds rushing 460 yds receiving on about 48 catches with about 10 Td. Do you think these numbers are being a little to aggressive?

My thinking is he's in a offense that's gonna feed him the rock I think he is what Peyton Hillis was suppose to be. I believe he's a true power back it's been a while since we have seen one. I believe he can get 300-320 carries in this offense and he's a very good RECIEVER out of the backfield. In a offense that wants to take pressure off the Qb. Seems like a setup for a good season

I think thats way too high to have him projected, maybe his ceiling but those numbers would likely put him around RB5 for the season and everything would have to work out perfect for that to happen. with those numbers there is probably less than 10% chance he exceeds your projections. It should be closer to 50/50 whether a players exceeds or falls short of his projections

So do you think projecting him for 304 carries is unreasonable? I think the head coach wants to run Jacksonville offense like Seattle and just pound the ball I really think he will get about 19 carries a game. Maybe I'm wrong

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Low YPC and low TDs.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

What are you guys projections for Toby Gerhart? I'm struggling a little but with projections for him. Right now I have him penciled in for 1250 yds rushing 460 yds receiving on about 48 catches with about 10 Td. Do you think these numbers are being a little to aggressive?

My thinking is he's in a offense that's gonna feed him the rock I think he is what Peyton Hillis was suppose to be. I believe he's a true power back it's been a while since we have seen one. I believe he can get 300-320 carries in this offense and he's a very good RECIEVER out of the backfield. In a offense that wants to take pressure off the Qb. Seems like a setup for a good season

I think thats way too high to have him projected, maybe his ceiling but those numbers would likely put him around RB5 for the season and everything would have to work out perfect for that to happen. with those numbers there is probably less than 10% chance he exceeds your projections. It should be closer to 50/50 whether a players exceeds or falls short of his projections

So do you think projecting him for 304 carries is unreasonable? I think the head coach wants to run Jacksonville offense like Seattle and just pound the ball I really think he will get about 19 carries a game. Maybe I'm wrong

Wanting to do that, and being able to do that due to circumstances are two different things.

Seattle can run the ball every play if they wanted because every game they are in is close or they have the lead. The defense allows them to do this. Does Jacksonville have the same defense to do that? Jacksonville allowed the 5th most points in the NFL last season. Seattle allowed the least. That is a 218 point difference, or 14 points PER GAME.

Hard to run the ball 19 times a game if you are getting beat, and not wanting to run the clock and need big chunks of yards. 19 carries a game would have been 2nd in the NFL last year. Seems unreasonable.

 

[JFS171]

Thanks guys sometimes so hard to project these guys in a new offense but for some reason this situation reminds me so much of Michael Turners situation when he went to Falcons

Volume wise, it does sound a lot like Turner, though Gerhart is a better WR. I will say that according to Football Outsider's OL rankings, Turner went from averaging 4.5 per carry in 2007 (on part time carries) behind SD's 25th ranked OL to averaging 4.5 per carry on full time carries in 2008 behind ATL's 9th ranked OL.

For seasons in which he's had 50 carries or more, Gerhart's averaged 4.3 YPC in Minny in a part time role (2010-2012), behind OLs ranked 11th, 18th, and 10th.

Jacksonville finished 31st last year, and while it's difficult to project the upcoming year with an OL, doesn't appear to have made drastic upgrades.

Point being... I think penciling Gerhart in for his 4.3 YPC history is misguided given full time carries as the offensive centerpiece behind what's likely to be a far worse OL than he's run behind in his career thus far.

 

[JFS171]

What are you guys projections for Toby Gerhart? I'm struggling a little but with projections for him. Right now I have him penciled in for 1250 yds rushing 460 yds receiving on about 48 catches with about 10 Td. Do you think these numbers are being a little to aggressive?

My thinking is he's in a offense that's gonna feed him the rock I think he is what Peyton Hillis was suppose to be. I believe he's a true power back it's been a while since we have seen one. I believe he can get 300-320 carries in this offense and he's a very good RECIEVER out of the backfield. In a offense that wants to take pressure off the Qb. Seems like a setup for a good season

I think thats way too high to have him projected, maybe his ceiling but those numbers would likely put him around RB5 for the season and everything would have to work out perfect for that to happen. with those numbers there is probably less than 10% chance he exceeds your projections. It should be closer to 50/50 whether a players exceeds or falls short of his projections

So do you think projecting him for 304 carries is unreasonable? I think the head coach wants to run Jacksonville offense like Seattle and just pound the ball I really think he will get about 19 carries a game. Maybe I'm wrong

Wanting to do that, and being able to do that due to circumstances are two different things.

Seattle can run the ball every play if they wanted because every game they are in is close or they have the lead. The defense allows them to do this. Does Jacksonville have the same defense to do that? Jacksonville allowed the 5th most points in the NFL last season. Seattle allowed the least. That is a 218 point difference, or 14 points PER GAME.

Hard to run the ball 19 times a game if you are getting beat, and not wanting to run the clock and need big chunks of yards. 19 carries a game would have been 2nd in the NFL last year. Seems unreasonable.

To add onto this with data...

Jacksonville was 28th in the league last year in attempts per game at 23.6 per. In theory, the D should be better, but I still don't think we're looking at a massive jump (KC was dead middle of the pack last year -- 15th in the league -- with the best RB in the league, and they averaged 27.6 carries per game).

Gerhard could get 18-19 of the 24 carries per game, theoretically. I just don't think he's a LOCK to do so... and I don't know that the carry pie increases significantly without the ability to sustain drives (OL and surrounding offense concerns) and keep the score within reasonable striking distance.