Aabye
Footballguy
I mistyped "6" in the original post. I corrected it but not before he replied, so the mistake is mine.
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Q: How many QBs make it per draft? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bracie Smathers
- Start date
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Many points to address.
madd futher
So if this is really a good year for QBs, there could be about 4 1st round QBs in this draft class, and 2 will be busts. Two QB 'hits' would indeed be above the average. There should be about 15 teams chasing them.
…. drafting a QB chosen in th 1st round has about a 5 times (just a rough number) probability of success relative to a later round selection,
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Couldn't agree more with your the bottom line because all of the data I've ever seen draws the same conclusion. Roughly less than one QB per year will pan out from the first round. Exceptions? Sure but the exceptions do not disprove historical data.
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madd futher
… you probably need to give up maybe two stud RBs (or a stud RB and a stud TE) in order to get a stud QB - and you will likely need a stud QB to compete for the championship.
CalBear
Don't you think this is equally true of all the other important positions? An OT, CB, WR, RB in the top 5/10 is less likely to bust than an OT, CB, WR, RB in the second round. That's tautological; it doesn't tell you anything about whether it's better to take a CB or a QB with the 1.05 draft pick.
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Excellent point. Opportunity cost is the decision point and it extends to more positions than the fantasy community is interested in.
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madd futher
… Another approach is to draft for one and hope you hit. Here are four solid Parcells rules for drafting a QB - If you can hit three of the four, (as well as observe most of the criteria described above, I think you can significantly increase the odds of drafting a 'Franchise QB":
1. He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.
2. He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.
3. He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasn’t ephemeral and that he has lived as “the guy” for some period of time.
4. He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games.
I would add a 5th for fantasy purposes:
5. You should only draft a QB who was selected in the 1st round. The chance of drafting a QB successfully in the lower rounds are only about 1 in 15. (see my study below). As you can see from the data, your chances of hitting in the 1st round successfully are less than 50%, but below that, the hit percentage is miniscule!
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I think the rule of drafting a senior QB has to be amended due to the fact that so many juniors are coming out early. I would look more towards collegiate starts over getting tripped up on the player being a senior and I would also want the luxury of being able to sit a younger, i.e. junior, QB for at least a yaer before throwing him into the fire as a starter. Also with the proliferation of the spread offense I would look more for QBs who come from a Pro set offense and line up behing the center. What scouts are looking at is how a QB reads a defense and how they take drops from center amongst other basic things so the senior rule is something I can work around.
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Bri
… think jeff did a very nice job with that. i forgot he did those.
I don't think it's flawed for not posting the data. Geesh it's long enough. If ya want the data dominator then go to that link.
I gotta say I find it hard to believe that you read that and wrote "top 5/10". He clearly pointed out NONE from 6-10 were worth considering.
Those are piddly things though.
So why does Jeff come up with far more than 1.4 or whatever the number was?
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Jeff was looking at fantasy production and that was what he accomplished.
I addressed drafting QBs and was reffered to his fantasy study.
I didn't say Jeff's study was flawed. I said it was missing something basic because I was reffered to it for draft data. The good thing is that people who have done their own studies came forward with the raw numbers so its all good.
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Bri
… You asked for 16 franchise QBs and I have a few minutes-
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I would challenge any list that has Tom Brady and Peyton Manning listed equally with Colt McCoy and Chad Henne as franchise QBs. What is your definition of a 'franchise' QB?
madd futher
So if this is really a good year for QBs, there could be about 4 1st round QBs in this draft class, and 2 will be busts. Two QB 'hits' would indeed be above the average. There should be about 15 teams chasing them.
…. drafting a QB chosen in th 1st round has about a 5 times (just a rough number) probability of success relative to a later round selection,
-------------------
Couldn't agree more with your the bottom line because all of the data I've ever seen draws the same conclusion. Roughly less than one QB per year will pan out from the first round. Exceptions? Sure but the exceptions do not disprove historical data.
-------------------
madd futher
… you probably need to give up maybe two stud RBs (or a stud RB and a stud TE) in order to get a stud QB - and you will likely need a stud QB to compete for the championship.
CalBear
Don't you think this is equally true of all the other important positions? An OT, CB, WR, RB in the top 5/10 is less likely to bust than an OT, CB, WR, RB in the second round. That's tautological; it doesn't tell you anything about whether it's better to take a CB or a QB with the 1.05 draft pick.
-------------------
Excellent point. Opportunity cost is the decision point and it extends to more positions than the fantasy community is interested in.
-------------------
madd futher
… Another approach is to draft for one and hope you hit. Here are four solid Parcells rules for drafting a QB - If you can hit three of the four, (as well as observe most of the criteria described above, I think you can significantly increase the odds of drafting a 'Franchise QB":
1. He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.
2. He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.
3. He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasn’t ephemeral and that he has lived as “the guy” for some period of time.
4. He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games.
I would add a 5th for fantasy purposes:
5. You should only draft a QB who was selected in the 1st round. The chance of drafting a QB successfully in the lower rounds are only about 1 in 15. (see my study below). As you can see from the data, your chances of hitting in the 1st round successfully are less than 50%, but below that, the hit percentage is miniscule!
-------------------
I think the rule of drafting a senior QB has to be amended due to the fact that so many juniors are coming out early. I would look more towards collegiate starts over getting tripped up on the player being a senior and I would also want the luxury of being able to sit a younger, i.e. junior, QB for at least a yaer before throwing him into the fire as a starter. Also with the proliferation of the spread offense I would look more for QBs who come from a Pro set offense and line up behing the center. What scouts are looking at is how a QB reads a defense and how they take drops from center amongst other basic things so the senior rule is something I can work around.
-----------------
Bri
… think jeff did a very nice job with that. i forgot he did those.
I don't think it's flawed for not posting the data. Geesh it's long enough. If ya want the data dominator then go to that link.
I gotta say I find it hard to believe that you read that and wrote "top 5/10". He clearly pointed out NONE from 6-10 were worth considering.
Those are piddly things though.
So why does Jeff come up with far more than 1.4 or whatever the number was?
-----------------
Jeff was looking at fantasy production and that was what he accomplished.
I addressed drafting QBs and was reffered to his fantasy study.
I didn't say Jeff's study was flawed. I said it was missing something basic because I was reffered to it for draft data. The good thing is that people who have done their own studies came forward with the raw numbers so its all good.
-----------------
Bri
… You asked for 16 franchise QBs and I have a few minutes-
-----------------
I would challenge any list that has Tom Brady and Peyton Manning listed equally with Colt McCoy and Chad Henne as franchise QBs. What is your definition of a 'franchise' QB?
I like that you replied to many in one and didn't make it long yet struggling now to reply properly.
I said too early on Colt and maybe on Henne with 2800 and 3300 he might be coming along. Hardly saying they're equal to Brady and Peyton
Warhogs
Footballguy
Anyone have any insights to add on how to evaluate the 2011 QB class? I am thinking the depth of potential prospects makes QB in rounds 2 and 3 potentially lucrative this year.
I have been reviewing statistics of 7 prospects:
Cam Newton-dominates statistically this class. Concerns are that he is the least experienced of the group and his low wonderlich is a concern.
Blaine Gabbert-falls in the middle of this draft class in completion %. Statistics suggest more of a prototypical pocket passer. Scored the highest wonderlich of this group.
Jake Locker-low completion percent and low wonderlich score. Verstile in that he can beat you with his arms or legs.
Ryan Mallett-a bit concerned about his completion percent and is bordering on the low end of what I like to see in the wonderlich.
Colin Kaepernick-concerned with his completion percent. This kid can run and throw. Impressive wonderlich.
Andy Dalton-seems to be one of the safer bets statistically. Lots of experience and a decent wonderlich.
Christian Ponder-see Dalton as the comparisons are similar.
Seems to me the safest bets may be Dalton and Ponder. Those who may like more risk but higher potential may want to look to Newton and Kaepernick. I am less excited about Gabbert, Locker and Mallett.
I have been reviewing statistics of 7 prospects:
Cam Newton-dominates statistically this class. Concerns are that he is the least experienced of the group and his low wonderlich is a concern.
Blaine Gabbert-falls in the middle of this draft class in completion %. Statistics suggest more of a prototypical pocket passer. Scored the highest wonderlich of this group.
Jake Locker-low completion percent and low wonderlich score. Verstile in that he can beat you with his arms or legs.
Ryan Mallett-a bit concerned about his completion percent and is bordering on the low end of what I like to see in the wonderlich.
Colin Kaepernick-concerned with his completion percent. This kid can run and throw. Impressive wonderlich.
Andy Dalton-seems to be one of the safer bets statistically. Lots of experience and a decent wonderlich.
Christian Ponder-see Dalton as the comparisons are similar.
Seems to me the safest bets may be Dalton and Ponder. Those who may like more risk but higher potential may want to look to Newton and Kaepernick. I am less excited about Gabbert, Locker and Mallett.
