Q: How many QBs make it per draft? (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

Great stuff from Steve Doerschucklooking at how many QBs per draft who turn into 'really fine' QBs.

Go to the link for the entire article, here's the data looking at the last 21 draft classes to come to the conclusion that only 1.4 QBs make it per year from a typical NFL draft.

Is it any wonder that so many teams take QBs high in the draft or are in continual churn mode to find a QB?

LINK only 1.4 QBs make it per draft

... There are hardly ever more than two “really fine” quarterbacks in a draft. Often enough, in the light of years gone by, there isn’t one.

We came to that conclusion after looking at every quarterback picked in the last 21 drafts. This is our view of the “really fine quarterbacks ones” (including the number of QBs picked in a year):

• 1990 (20): None. The best two, Jeff George (No. 1) and Neil O’Donnell (No. 70), were almost OK, I guess.

• 1991 (13): One. Brett Favre (No. 33). Picking No. 2 is almost comical. Todd Marinovich? Browning Nagle? Yikes.

• 1992 (20): Zip, zero, nada, with Tommy Maddox (No. 25), Kent Graham (No. 211) and Ty Detmer (a Holmgren pick at No. 230) perhaps the best three.

• 1993 (8): Three. Drew Bledsoe (No. 1), Mark Brunell (another Holmgren pick, No. 118) and Trent Green (No. 222) reached the “really fine” heights at one time or another. Elvis Grbac (No. 219) did, fleetingly.

• 1994 (9): Zero, although I can picture Trent Dilfer (No. 6) saying, “You never played the position. How would you know?”

• 1995 (14): Two. Steve McNair (3) and Todd Collins (No. 5) played in Super Bowls. Kordell Stewart (No. 60) ran around a lot. Stoney Case (No. 80) had a great name.

• 1996 (8): None. I remember talking to Bobby Hoying (No. 85) at an all-star practice in Massillon, where he said there was this great neighborhood spot called Fishmo’s in St. Henry.

• 1997 (11): None. Jake Plummer (No. 42) fell just short in our book. This was the infamous Jim Druckenmiller (No. 26) draft.

• 1998 (8): Two. Peyton Manning (No. 1) and Matt Hasselbeck (another Holmgren pick, No. 187) still are ticking. Ryan Leaf (No. 2) fell fast and blew away.

• 1999 (13). Two. Donovan McNabb (No. 2) for sure, and Daunte Culpepper (No. 11), if just for a short run. Tim Couch (No. 1), Akili Smith (No. 3) and Cade McNown (No. 12) disappointed.

• 2000 (12): Three. Spergon Wynn (No. 183) isn’t one of them, but Tom Brady (No. 199) is. Chad Pennington (No. 18) and Marc Bulger (No. 168) had moments enough to make the list.

• 2001 (11): Two. Michael Vick (No. 1) and Drew Brees (No. 32). Marques Tuiasosopo (No. 59) and Josh Booty (No. 172) weren’t really fine but had fun names.

• 2002 (16): Zilch. The best has been David Garrard (No. 108), a fair starter as opposed to the cap-busting nightmares David Carr (No. 1) and Joey Harrington (No. 3) were to the Texans and Lions. Remember Steve Bellisari (No. 205)?

• 2003 (13): One, with an asterisk. Carson Palmer hasn’t been all THAT fine for a No. 1 overall pick. Seneca Wallace (No. 110) was a better value, actually. Byron Leftwich (No. 7), Kyle Boller (No. 19) and Rex Grossman (No. 22) were wastes of time.

• 2004 (17): Four. Eli Manning (No. 1) and Ben Roethlisberger (No. 11) have won Super Bowls, and most GMs might take Philip Rivers (No. 4) over either one. Matt Schaub (No. 90) makes this the deepest group in this story.

• 2005 (14): Two. Aaron Rodgers (No. 24) is the no-brainer. Matt Cassel (No. 230) gets the other spot with two winning seasons in the last three years with two different teams. Talk among yourselves about Alex Smith (No. 1), Jason Campbell (No. 25), Kyle Orton (No. 106), Derek Anderson (No. 213) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (No. 250).

• 2006 (12): Two. And two more asterisks. Vince Young (No. 3) and Jay Cutler (No. 11) double as real talents and real pains in the kiester.

• 2007 (11): Zero. Jamarcus Russell (No. 1), Brady Quinn (No. 22), Kevin Kolb (No. 36), Drew Stanton

(No. 43), Trent Edwards (No. 92), Troy Smith (No. 174) and Tyler Thigpen (No. 217) all have started games. Only Kolb has emerged as a “really fine” prospect.

• 2008 (13): Two. Matt Ryan (No. 3) and Joe Flacco

(No. 18) haven’t lit up the playoffs, but the guess is they will be back.

• 2009 (12): Two. Tentatively. Matthew Stafford (No. 1) and Mark Sanchez (No. 5) haven’t done enough to make the Hall of Fame yet.

• 2010 (14). It’s too early to tell, but Sam Bradford

(No. 1) looks strong, and Colt McCoy (No. 85) inspires hope. The jury’s out on Tim Tebow (No. 25) and Jimmy Clausen (No. 48).

By our count, the count of “really fine” ones comes out to 1.4 a year.

 

[igbomb]

The point is probably valid enough, though I don't think that he's breaking any new ground here.

But including Todd Collins while excluding Jeff George makes it clear that he didn't put very much thought into this. Collins?

 

[Donnybrook]

Great stuff from Steve Doerschucklooking at how many QBs per draft who turn into 'really fine' QBs.

Go to the link for the entire article, here's the data looking at the last 21 draft classes to come to the conclusion that only 1.4 QBs make it per year from a typical NFL draft.

Is it any wonder that so many teams take QBs high in the draft or are in continual churn mode to find a QB?

LINK only 1.4 QBs make it per draft

... • 2009 (12): Two. Tentatively. Josh Freeman (No. 17) is one and Matthew Stafford (No. 1) and Mark Sanchez (No. 5) are equal to about a half each.

I fixed 2009 for Steve

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The point is probably valid enough, though I don't think that he's breaking any new ground here.But including Todd Collins while excluding Jeff George makes it clear that he didn't put very much thought into this. Collins?

Instead of splitting hairs and debating individual QBs who should or shouldn't be labeled as 'really fine' QBs (and if you really want to nit-pick then go after the definition of 'really fine' since that is kinda left up in the air) I zero in on the bottom line and that is why I only highlighted the bottom line of only 1.4 QBs making it per draft and in some draft classes ZERO QBs make it.Take that 1.4 or round up to 1.5 for easier math and then consider three variables.1. that their are 32 NFL teams2. the average lifespan of a typical NFL starting QB3. how many current NFL teams have a 'really fine' QB as their starterNow take the number from row 3 and start from the current number or 'really fine' QBs then find out where each of the 'really fine' QBs and consider row 2 and where they are on the average QB time line before looking at row 1 and consider how many of the 32 lack a 'really fine' QB and would be looking for one.I think teams can get-by without having a 'really fine' QB or they might get lucky and get a 'really fine' season or two from a QB who couldn't be considered a 'really fine' or a better term might be consistently solid or however you wish to label the action of having a solid stable QB who consistently produces top-ten stats and doesn't hurt a team or isn't constantly injured or missing or doesn't flake out mentally/chemically. Teams get lucky every once in awhile with guys who produce well but lack leadership or get injured or aren't good fits for scheme/coaches/contract free agency issues/etc. But back to the bottom line.Less than 2 QBs per draft turn into 'really fine' QBs as this article labels but you can use any term you wish. That stat is the take-away and that stat is a good measure of how to look at the constant churn of QBs in the NFL.With the NFL draft fast approaching it is crucial to understand since it only takes one team to fall in love with a QB for them to take them higher in the draft than where fans might believe they should go. It also makes sense to ponder teams a few slots below where a QB they like might go would make a move up to get the guy they want.I think the thing to take away is the stat and what it means for the upcoming draft.

 

[Donnybrook]

This is why when I see mock drafts with 5 QBs going in the 1st round I just cringe. It is likely that 3 or 4 out the 5 teams will have nothing to show for their 1st round pick in a couple years. I think that is a huge risk that most teams will not be willing to accept. I expect Newton and Gabbet to go in the first and all others to fall back in this draft.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

This is why when I see mock drafts with 5 QBs going in the 1st round I just cringe. It is likely that 3 or 4 out the 5 teams will have nothing to show for their 1st round pick in a couple years. I think that is a huge risk that most teams will not be willing to accept. I expect Newton and Gabbet to go in the first and all others to fall back in this draft.

See this is the crux of the matter and where I am diametrically opposite of where you look at the poor stat from a view of how few make it.I look at the stat and think, where is a team going to find a 'really fine' QB? And what happens if they see a guy and the believe that guy would turn into a 'really fine' QB? What do then do? Do they sit tight and hope and pray that no one else will take a chance because they are afraid to take a QB? Or do they make a bold move to get their guy?It is really difficult to find a 'really fine' QB and if only 1.5 make it per draft and the average lifespan of an NFL QB who produces 'really fine' stats comes in year two/three of their career and then the last two or three years they aren't as effective and really only are producing 'really fine' numbers in their prime the true number of 'really fine' QBs in the league at any one point in time is extremely low. Maybe five to seven guys per year would be considered 'really fine' QBs at best in any year.I would never pass on a QB if I were an NFL GM and was in need and thought the guy I would pass on had a good shot to turn into a 'really fine' QB even if it took a few years for him to emerge into his potential.I also would definitely be looking to make a move up if I sawa a guy I wanted and knew he wouldn't fall to me in the draft.I share a precept (with Mayock I think?) that having a 'really fine' QB improves a team by 25% accross the board, even the defense because it takes pressure off of them and increases pressure on the opposing offense. So if I were an NFL GM and was in need of a 'really fine' QB I would approach the draft with the clear intent of taking a QB if I felt they could turn into the sort of QB I needed. If I passed on a guy I only pass if I completely certain he will not turn into a 'really fine' QB or the opportunity cost was a sure-fire Pro Bowl player at another priority position.I would never pass on a guy who I felt had a good shot to turn into a 'really fine' QB if I were in need.I see low number of NFL QBs who turn into 'really fine' QBs and see how difficult it is to land one of those guys and operate from that vantage of getting the guy if I have the opportunity rather than shying away and never taking a shot due to fear of them not making it.

 

[FUBAR]

1987 had six.

1983 had five.

 

[CapnJB]

It's an interesting point but you shouldn't make statistical averages using subjective criteria.

 

[madd futher]

First of all the data is not accurate. It includes undrafted rookie free agent camp invitees and supplemental draftees as well as drafted quarterbacks. For example, the data counts 20 rookie QBs in 1992. Technically there were 15 QBs selected in the draft, 1 Qb selected in a supplemental draft (Dave Brown, Duke), and 4 camp invites.

But there is some very interesting data I've mined here:

Looking at 18 years of data on Draft choices only from 1989 to 2006 (I figure that 2007 - 2009 are still too incomplete to include yet), by my count there were 204 draftees of which there were 41 first rounders.

Of the 41 1st round picks, 19 were moderately successful (3+ years as reasonable quality starters) to very successful; 22 could be considered disappointments or busts).

Looking at the QBs drafted only in the top ten selections, the ratio of success to disappointment was very similar to the over-all 1st round ratio - 12 to 13.

Of the 163 QBs picked later than the 1st round, only 11 (or possibly 12) could be considered moderately successful to very successful. That makes for a 'success' rate for lower rounds of only about 6.75% or only about 1 in 15!

 

[Runningman]

This is why when I see mock drafts with 5 QBs going in the 1st round I just cringe. It is likely that 3 or 4 out the 5 teams will have nothing to show for their 1st round pick in a couple years. I think that is a huge risk that most teams will not be willing to accept. I expect Newton and Gabbet to go in the first and all others to fall back in this draft.

Except that if you everwanta shot at agood one you have to draft a QB early,unless you got Bart Starr or Tom Brady up your sleeve. You have got to rool the dice sometime. Do the voodoo you can and throw those chicken bones.

 

[Bri]

Not liking the 1995 writeup.

The number seems too low to me. I think it's low but 1.4 seems too low. Anyone do the legwork and doublecheck?

 

[Rockchild]

The point is probably valid enough, though I don't think that he's breaking any new ground here.But including Todd Collins while excluding Jeff George makes it clear that he didn't put very much thought into this. Collins?

Pretty sure he meant Kerry Collins not Todd.

 

[madd futher]

Not liking the 1995 writeup.The number seems too low to me. I think it's low but 1.4 seems too low. Anyone do the legwork and doublecheck?

I don't quite know what you mean by 1995 write-up? See my analysis above using 18 years of data. 0nly about 30 reasonable quality QBs were drafted out of 204 in the last 18 years - an overall 'hit' rate of just under 15%, or 1 2/3 QB successes per draft year (just slightly higher than the 1.4 cited in the OP).

Almost half of the 'successes' were 1st round draftees. The chances of sucessfully hitting on a decent QB later in the draft were less than 7%, but Holmgren has been pretty good at it.

Here is a significant implication for NFL teams: Statistically, over half of the teams in the NFL will NOT have anything even resembling a 'franchise' QB - which is a huge factor separating the 'haves' from the have-nots'.

If I were a GM of any of these teams - WAS, CIN, KC, MIA, BUF, TEN, JAX, SF, CAR, SEA, OAK, CLE, MIN, AZ, I would be looking to draft a QB if I could trade up or if a 1st round caliber QB fell to me. In addition, if I were a GM of NO, IND or NE, I would be looking for a 'franchise quality' understudy to take over in just a few years.

So if this is really a good year for QBs, there could be about 4 1st round QBs in this draft class, and 2 will be busts. Two QB 'hits' would indeed be above the average. There should be about 15 teams chasing them.

I like the Holmgren model of drafting a QB just about every year, and the Thompson/McCarthy model in GB turned out to be shrewd: have your 'franchise' QB replacement on board, even if he has to sit for a few years.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

It's ridiculous to not count Jake Plummer. And a few more can easily be argued for the list. What a pile of crap. What's his analysis? Quarterbacks often bust? Did we not know this? Why not see a breakdown by round drafted? While Tom Brady pans out as much as Peyton Manning, the cost was nowhere near the same.

 

[Bri]

Not liking the 1995 writeup.The number seems too low to me. I think it's low but 1.4 seems too low. Anyone do the legwork and doublecheck?

I don't quite know what you mean by 1995 write-up?

Wellit reads: • 1995 (14): Two. Steve McNair (3) and Todd Collins (No. 5) played in Super Bowls. Kordell Stewart (No. 60) ran around a lot. Stoney Case (No. 80) had a great name.

Todd Collins? Flowing down through the article at each good QB then hitting Todd Collins name is like a major speed bump.

Case is a joke he's making. I see that.

I don't think there was anything wrong with the Steelers selecting Stewart and think he was a good pick.

He was in the league 10 years, played less than that, started even less. It is still far more than the league average and more than I'd guess a bad pick would last.

One could argue his stats aren't all that great. I think he only had a couple years, maybe four or so. Not many.

Looking at PFR, he had a couple years where he threw for 3k and ran for another 4-500.

He made the pro bowl in 2001.

I understand folks at this board like to complain about the pro bowl votes and then not vote. I'm not using it to put Kordell in the hall here. I'm saying simply that they drafted a guy that played WR some and eventually made the pro bowl as a QB. I consider that to be a good pick then.

 

[Bri]

Not liking the 1995 writeup.The number seems too low to me. I think it's low but 1.4 seems too low. Anyone do the legwork and doublecheck?

See my analysis above using 18 years of data. 0nly about 30 reasonable quality QBs were drafted out of 204 in the last 18 years - an overall 'hit' rate of just under 15%, or 1 2/3 QB successes per draft year (just slightly higher than the 1.4 cited in the OP).

There's 32 teams and each has a starting QB. There has not been a total of 32 teams each year over the last 18 years, but there is no way that there have only been 30 reasonable quality QBs. It is simply not possible. I think you need to redefine "reasonable quality" and may be thinking "especially good."

We haven't had teams starting extra RBs to take direct snaps because there were no decent QBs available. 30 in 18 years...that's not working. You need to recrunch that data

 

[Aabye]

First of all the data is not accurate. It includes undrafted rookie free agent camp invitees and supplemental draftees as well as drafted quarterbacks. For example, the data counts 20 rookie QBs in 1992. Technically there were 15 QBs selected in the draft, 1 Qb selected in a supplemental draft (Dave Brown, Duke), and 4 camp invites.

But there is some very interesting data I've mined here:

Looking at 18 years of data on Draft choices only from 1989 to 2006 (I figure that 2007 - 2009 are still too incomplete to include yet), by my count there were 204 draftees of which there were 41 first rounders.

Of the 41 1st round picks, 19 were moderately successful (3+ years as reasonable quality starters) to very successful; 22 could be considered disappointments or busts).

Looking at the QBs drafted only in the top ten selections, the ratio of success to disappointment was very similar to the over-all 1st round ratio - 12 to 13.

Of the 163 QBs picked later than the 1st round, only 11 (or possibly 12) could be considered moderately successful to very successful. That makes for a 'success' rate for lower rounds of only about 6.75% or only about 1 in 15!

Adding to this point a bit, I am in the long, slow process of evaluating the career production of all fantasy relevant players taken between 1985 and 2010. Part of that is looking at the overall bust rate for players at every position (for me, "bust" meant a player that scored less than 50 career VBD points).It's a slightly different standard but the numbers match up pretty well overall. I found the bust rates among 1st round RBs, QBs, WRs, and TEs to be pretty similar, all clustering around 50%. 2nd round RBs and WRs busted at about a 75% rate and 3rd round RBs busted at about 85%.

I don't know of any objective way of measuring whether or not a lineman or cornerback is a bust, but just eyeballing it over the years, those 1st round picks all seem to bust at a similar rate.

When you actually look at the number of players drafted vs. the number that go on to have longish productive careers, it's shocking how low the rate of success is.

Jeff Tefertiller did a study on this. Here are his articles:

QBs

WRs

TEs

RBs

ETA: Jeff's research is much better than the hand-wavy stuff in the original article.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

First of all the data is not accurate. It includes undrafted rookie free agent camp invitees and supplemental draftees as well as drafted quarterbacks. For example, the data counts 20 rookie QBs in 1992. Technically there were 15 QBs selected in the draft, 1 Qb selected in a supplemental draft (Dave Brown, Duke), and 4 camp invites.

But there is some very interesting data I've mined here:

Looking at 18 years of data on Draft choices only from 1989 to 2006 (I figure that 2007 - 2009 are still too incomplete to include yet), by my count there were 204 draftees of which there were 41 first rounders.

Of the 41 1st round picks, 19 were moderately successful (3+ years as reasonable quality starters) to very successful; 22 could be considered disappointments or busts).

Looking at the QBs drafted only in the top ten selections, the ratio of success to disappointment was very similar to the over-all 1st round ratio - 12 to 13.

Of the 163 QBs picked later than the 1st round, only 11 (or possibly 12) could be considered moderately successful to very successful. That makes for a 'success' rate for lower rounds of only about 6.75% or only about 1 in 15!

Adding to this point a bit, I am in the long, slow process of evaluating the career production of all fantasy relevant players taken between 1985 and 2010. Part of that is looking at the overall bust rate for players at every position (for me, "bust" meant a player that scored less than 50 career VBD points).It's a slightly different standard but the numbers match up pretty well overall. I found the bust rates among 1st round RBs, QBs, WRs, and TEs to be pretty similar, all clustering around 50%. 2nd round RBs and WRs busted at about a 75% rate and 3rd round RBs busted at about 85%.

I don't know of any objective way of measuring whether or not a lineman or cornerback is a bust, but just eyeballing it over the years, those 1st round picks all seem to bust at a similar rate.

When you actually look at the number of players drafted vs. the number that go on to have longish productive careers, it's shocking how low the rate of success is.

Jeff Tefertiller did a study on this. Here are his articles:

QBs

WRs

TEs

RBs

ETA: Jeff's research is much better than the hand-wavy stuff in the original article.

Good study by Tefertiller but I think it may be missing something basic.This was the methodology he used to come to his conclusions.

-- The methodology for determining a successful draft pick will be based on the following metrics:

The number of seasons in the NFL. The longer the career span, the better chance the player was an asset to fantasy owners.

The number of seasons the player finished as a fantasy starter (using 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE as the starting lineup) in a 12-team league.

The number of seasons as an elite fantasy starter (finishing in top six quarterback or tight end, or top twelve running back or wide receiver).

In addition, a ratio was used for the two metrics above. The ratio divides the number of seasons finishing at the metric level by the number of seasons in the NFL. It was included to help distinguish players of varying career lengths. --

He breaks down where players went off the board into six categories:

1. Draft Area 2. # Seasons 3. Viableseasons 4. Viability Ratio 5. Elite Seasons 6. Elite Ratio

He provides an effectiveness rating but doesn't provide the raw number of players drafted to do simple ratio comparisons of players higher in the draft can compare to those drafted later.

The first row of the first column says top five QBs but doesn't give the raw numbers of players who were drafted in the top five and so on for the next row of Picks 6-10 in the first column.

-- quarterbacks drafted since 1990. The Top 5 overall picks --

Great study but missing something basic so we can use the raw data to do quick and dirty comparisons of how many players went off the board and how much more or less effective taking a player higher/lower in the draft actually is. Also we know of Tom Brady and Marc Bulger skewing results of sixth round QBs but if those two expections are taken out then just howe effective is drafting a QB in the sixth round? The only way to determine that is to have the raw data so we can make that statistical comparison.

And instead of taking in the big picture some people will miss the big picture and focus on one small thing and complain about data. The big picture is glaring, the results ALL show the two dramatic and undeniable conclusions.

1. A small number of QBs become effective

2. The BEST PLACE to find an effective QB is in the top 5/10 of an NFL draft

Many NFL GMs need a QB and are looking at the draft to get their QB.

If one GM feels that one of the top QBs could be 'there guy' and are not in position where they would be able to draft them then they should seriously consider moving up in the draft.

LINK Vikes consder moving up to draft QB

Vikes consder moving up in the draft

08:01 AM ET 03.21 | Leslie Frazier, in Missouri to watch Blaine Gabbert throw a football, was just as interested to sit down with the young man for dinner. Frazier acknowledges that what he heard in the evening was just as important as what he saw during the day. The Vikings are giving serious consideration to selecting a quarterback in next month's draft. Minnesota holds the 12th overall pick but there is a possibility they could try to trade up or perhaps even trade back and take a QB. Players of interest include Gabbert, Auburn's Cam Newton, Washington's Jake Locker, TCU's Andy Dalton and Arkansas' Ryan Mallett. Gabbert and Newton are expected to be long gone by the time the 12th pick comes up.

Minneapolis Star Tribune

 

[Donnybrook]

This is why when I see mock drafts with 5 QBs going in the 1st round I just cringe. It is likely that 3 or 4 out the 5 teams will have nothing to show for their 1st round pick in a couple years. I think that is a huge risk that most teams will not be willing to accept. I expect Newton and Gabbet to go in the first and all others to fall back in this draft.

Except that if you everwanta shot at agood one you have to draft a QB early,unless you got Bart Starr or Tom Brady up your sleeve. You have got to rool the dice sometime. Do the voodoo you can and throw those chicken bones.

Except that this year is not a good year for QBs. If I thought there was a Aaron Rodgers type prospect in this draft I would have no problem with my team using a first round pick. The two top prospects are from spread offenses and usually they take longer to adapt to the pros and then add in the fact that they might miss training camp because of the lockout. I know that Drew Bees was a spread QB in college and but even his development came a little too late for San Diego. New Orleans is reaping most of his benifits. I do not think Jake Locker deserves to be 1st round pick based on his college career. Ryan Mallet has character concerns to go along with being immobile. Ponder might be a good prospect but even he has some corcerns. I think most of these QB propects are slated as 1st round picks out on necessity rather than skill.

 

[Shane Falco]

you had me at Doerschucklooking

 

[Insein]

The point is probably valid enough, though I don't think that he's breaking any new ground here.But including Todd Collins while excluding Jeff George makes it clear that he didn't put very much thought into this. Collins?

Pretty sure he meant Kerry Collins not Todd.

Was going to say. I'm pretty sure Todd collins has never been to the super bowl unless he bought a ticket. Even then he'd still have been watching it and not playing.

 

[Aabye]

Here are the raw numbers for 1990-2008. I just stipulated (made up) that a "good" QB needed either 100 career TDs or to be an active starter who is likely to hit that benchmark. I copy/pasted these numbers from pro-football-reference.com, by the way. I'll make a post for each round:

ROUND PICK TEAM NAME YDS TDS INTS

1 1 IND Jeff George 27602 154 113

1 1 NWE Drew Bledsoe 44611 251 206

1 1 IND Peyton Manning 54828 399 198

1 1 CLE Tim Couch 11131 64 67

1 1 ATL Michael Vick 14609 93 58

1 1 HOU David Carr 14433 65 71

1 1 CIN Carson Palmer 22694 154 100

1 1 SDG Eli Manning 22646 156 113

1 1 SFO Alex Smith 9399 51 53

1 1 OAK J. Russell 4083 18 23

1 2 SEA Rick Mirer 11969 50 76

1 2 SDG Ryan Leaf 3666 14 36

1 2 PHI Donovan McNabb 36250 230 115

1 3 WAS Heath Shuler 3691 15 33

1 3 HOU Steve McNair 31304 174 119

1 3 CIN Akili Smith 2212 5 13

1 3 DET Joey Harrington 14693 79 85

1 3 TEN Vince Young 8098 42 42

1 3 ATL Matt Ryan 10061 66 34

1 4 NYG Philip Rivers 19661 136 58

1 5 CAR Kerry Collins 40441 206 195

1 6 CIN David Klingler 3994 16 22

1 6 TAM Trent Dilfer 20518 113 129

1 7 DET Andre Ware 1112 5 8

1 7 JAX Byron Leftwich 10260 58 41

1 10 ARI Matt Leinart 3893 14 20

1 11 MIN D. Culpepper 24153 149 106

1 11 PIT B. Roeth. 22502 144 86

1 11 DEN Jay Cutler 15964 104 79

1 12 CHI Cade McNown 3111 16 19

1 16 SEA Dan McGwire 745 2 6

1 18 NYJ Chad Pennington 17823 102 64

1 18 BAL Joe Flacco 10206 60 34

1 19 BAL Kyle Boller 8770 48 51

1 22 CHI Rex Grossman 7081 40 40

1 22 BUF J.P. Losman 6211 33 34

1 22 CLE Brady Quinn 1902 10 9

1 24 RAI Todd Marinovich 1345 8 9

1 24 GNB Aaron Rodgers 12723 87 32

1 25 DEN Tommy Maddox 8087 48 54

1 25 WAS Jason Campbell 13247 68 46

1 26 SFO J. Druck. 239 1 4

1 32 WAS Patrick Ramsey 5930 35 30

SUCCESS: 18/43

 

[Aabye]

ROUND PICK TEAM NAME YDS TDS INTS

2 32 SDG Drew Brees 35266 235 132

2 33 ATL Brett Favre 71838 508 336

2 34 NYJ Browning Nagle 2489 8 20

2 36 PHI Kevin Kolb 2082 11 14

2 40 KAN Matt Blundin 15 0 2

2 40 MIA John Beck 559 1 3

2 42 STL Tony Banks 15315 77 73

2 42 ARI Jake Plummer 29253 161 161

2 43 DET Drew Stanton 1158 5 9

2 45 BUF Todd Collins 4547 22 24

2 46 PHO Tony Sacca 29 0 2

2 49 NYJ Kellen Clemens 1686 5 11

2 50 TAM Shaun King 4566 27 24

2 53 DAL Quincy Carter 6337 32 37

2 56 GNB Brian Brohm 252 0 5

2 57 MIA Chad Henne 6246 27 33

2 59 OAK Marques Tuiasosopo 554 2 7

2 60 PIT Kordell Stewart 14746 77 84

2 60 DET Charlie Batch 10402 60 47

2 64 MIN Tarvaris Jackson 3984 24 22

SUCCESS: 3/20

 

[Aabye]

ROUND PICK TEAM NAME YDS TDS INTS

3 58 RAI Billy Joe Hobert 3371 23 25

3 59 NWE Tom Hodson 1823 7 11

3 63 CHI Peter Tom Willis 1261 6 15

3 65 SFO Giovanni Carmazzi

3 67 CLE Charlie Frye 4154 17 29

3 69 OAK Andrew Walter 1919 3 16

3 70 PIT Neil O'Donnell 21690 120 68

3 75 BAL Chris Redman 2991 21 13

3 77 SEA Brock Huard 689 4 2

3 80 ARI Stoney Case 1826 4 15

3 81 ARI Josh McCown 6584 35 40

3 81 SDG Charlie Whitehurst 507 2 3

3 84 CLE Eric Zeier 3520 16 15

3 85 PHI Bobby Hoying 2544 11 15

3 85 SEA David Greene

3 85 KAN Brodie Croyle 1669 8 9

3 86 JAX Jonathan Quinn 1161 4 7

3 88 HOU Dave Ragone 135 0 1

3 90 ATL Matt Schaub 15457 83 52

3 91 DEN Brian Griese 19440 119 99

3 92 BUF Trent Edwards 6019 26 30

3 94 NWE Kevin O'Connell 23 0 0

3 97 TAM Chris Simms 3117 12 18

SUCCESS: 3/23

 

[Aabye]

ROUND PICK TEAM NAME YDS TDS INTS

4 84 NYJ Troy Taylor 125 2 1

4 84 NWE Scott Zolak 1314 8 7

4 86 WAS Cary Conklin 560 5 3

4 86 TAM Craig Erickson 7625 41 38

4 93 MIA Scott Mitchell 15692 95 81

4 99 CIN Donald Hollas 2399 13 21

4 99 JAX Rob Johnson 5795 30 23

4 99 NOR Danny Wuerffel 2123 12 22

4 100 DEN Jeff Lewis 210 0 2

4 101 STL Joe Germaine 136 1 2

4 102 PHI Casey Weldon 713 1 4

4 103 NYJ Brad Smith 51 1 0

4 103 DAL Isaiah Stanback

4 106 DAL Bill Musgrave 402 1 2

4 106 CAR Chris Weinke 3904 15 26

4 106 CLE Luke McCown 1739 9 10

4 106 CHI Kyle Orton 12774 71 48

4 107 CHI Will Furrer 572 2 10

4 108 JAX David Garrard 16003 89 54

4 109 WAS Sage Rosenfels 4156 30 29

4 110 KAN Pat Barnes

4 110 SEA Seneca Wallace 4241 29 16

4 111 ATL Perry Klein 0 0 0

4 111 MIN Chad May

4 112 WAS Chris Hakel

4 116 NOR Doug Nussmeier 455 1 4

4 117 NWE Rohan Davey 88 0 0

4 119 PHI Dave Barr 42 0 0

4 121 CAR Stefan Lefors

4 125 NYG Jesse Palmer 562 3 4

4 130 NYG Danny Kanell 5129 31 34

4 131 GNB Aaron Brooks 20261 123 92

4 134 KAN Steve Stenstrom 1895 4 12

SUCCESS: 3/33

 

[Aabye]

ROUND PICK TEAM NAME YDS TDS INTS

5 118 GNB Mark Brunell 32045 184 108

5 131 PHI Craig Erickson 7625 41 38

5 135 NYG Craig Kupp 23 0 0

5 137 CAR Randy Fasani 171 0 4

5 137 MIN John David Booty

5 145 DET Dan Orlovsky 1679 8 8

5 148 CHI Craig Krenzel 718 3 6

5 148 GNB Ingle Martin

5 149 DET Mike McMahon 2867 15 21

5 151 TEN Kevin Daft

5 151 CIN Jeff Rowe

5 152 NOR Adrian McPherson

5 155 PHI A.J. Feeley 4070 27 29

5 156 PIT Dennis Dixon 402 1 2

5 158 ATL Kurt Kittner 391 2 6

5 160 GNB Jay Barker

5 160 TAM Josh Johnson 796 4 8

5 162 NYJ Erik Ainge

5 163 PIT Tee Martin 69 0 1

5 163 SFO Brandon Doman

5 163 PIT Brian St. Pierre 185 2 3

5 164 GNB Craig Nall 402 5 0

5 164 PIT Omar Jacobs

5 174 BAL Troy Smith 1734 8 5

SUCCESS: 1/24

 

[Aabye]

ROUND PICK TEAM NAME YDS TDS INTS

6 138 SDG John Friesz 8699 45 42

6 156 NOR Mike Buck 790 5 4

6 166 NYJ Jeff Blake 21711 134 99

6 168 NOR Marc Bulger 22814 122 93

6 171 NYG Mike Cherry 0 0 0

6 172 MIA John Dutton

6 172 SEA Josh Booty

6 177 MIA Josh Heupel

6 178 PIT Jim Miller 6387 36 31

6 183 CLE Spergon Wynn 585 1 7

6 185 PHI Andy Hall

6 186 NOR J.T. O'Sullivan 1866 9 13

6 186 WAS Colt Brennan

6 187 GNB Matt Hasselbeck 29579 176 128

6 187 BAL Josh Harris

6 191 CAR Jerry Colquitt

6 191 NYJ Chuck Clements

6 192 HOU Drew Henson 98 1 1

6 193 IND Jim Sorgi 929 6 1

6 193 CIN Reggie McNeal

6 194 TAM Bruce Gradkowski 3883 20 23

6 197 SDG Craig Whelihan 3160 14 29

6 198 NYG Andre Woodson

6 199 NWE Tom Brady 34744 261 103

6 200 NYJ Brooks Bollinger 2226 9 9

6 201 NWE Kliff Kingsbury 17 0 0

6 201 STL Jeff Smoker

6 202 WAS Todd Husak -2 0 0

6 203 PIT Spence Fischer

6 205 IND Mike Cawley

6 205 SDG JaJuan Seider

6 205 STL Steve Bellisari

6 205 WAS Jordan Palmer 59 0 2

6 213 BAL Derek Anderson 9148 53 55

SUCCESS: 4/34

 

[Aabye]

ROUND PICK TEAM NAME YDS TDS INTS

7 190 CHI Paul Justin 2614 8 10

7 192 MIN Gino Torretta 41 1 1

7 197 WAS Gus Frerotte 21291 114 106

7 198 NWE Jay Walker 31 0 0

7 199 KAN Steve Matthews 299 0 0

7 202 ARI John Navarre 342 2 5

7 204 ATL Tony Graziani 999 2 8

7 207 PHI Koy Detmer 1944 10 14

7 208 NYJ Glenn Foley 2469 12 16

7 209 GNB Matt Flynn 497 3 3

7 212 SFO Tim Rattay 4853 31 23

7 213 CIN John Walsh

7 214 DEN Jarious Jackson 114 0 1

7 216 SDG Seth Burford

7 217 SFO Cody Pickett 195 0 4

7 217 MIN Tyler Thigpen 3167 21 17

7 218 CIN Casey Bramlet

7 223 ATL D.J. Shockley

7 223 HOU Alex Brink

7 225 DEN Matt Mauck 136 0 1

7 227 NWE Michael Bishop 80 1 1

7 229 KAN James Kilian

7 230 NWE Matt Cassel 9986 66 36

7 232 CHI Moses Moreno 485 1 2

7 232 SEA Jeff Kelly

7 232 WAS Gibran Hamdan 7 0 0

7 234 BAL Wally Richardson 1 0 0

7 234 TAM Joe Hamilton

7 236 BAL Wes Pate

7 237 SDG Tony Corbin

7 238 BAL Jon Stark

7 239 ARI Chris Greisen 69 1 0

7 240 GNB Kyle Wachholtz

7 240 GNB Ron McAda

7 241 SFO Ken Dorsey 2082 8 18

7 245 CIN Scott Covington 30 0 0

7 248 HOU B.J. Symons

7 250 DEN Bradlee Van Pelt 7 0 0

7 250 STL Ryan Fitzpatrick 7104 44 42

SUCCESS: 1/39

 

[Aabye]

ROUND PICK TEAM NAME YDS TDS INTS

8 198 RAM Ricky Jones

8 207 NOR Gerry Gdowski

8 211 NYG Kent Graham 7801 39 33

8 216 PIT Alex Van Pelt 2985 16 24

8 219 SFO Elvis Grbac 16774 99 81

8 220 HOU Bucky Richardson 1257 6 6

8 222 TAM Mike Pawlawski

8 222 SDG Trent Green 28475 162 114

9 227 MIN Brad Johnson 29054 166 122

9 228 RAM T.J. Rubley 1377 8 7

9 230 GNB Ty Detmer 6351 34 35

9 242 GNB Kirk Baumgartner

9 242 SFO Darian Hagan

9 247 DEN Todd Ellis

10 260 TAM Pat O'Hara

11 284 DEN Shawn Moore 232 0 3

11 296 CLE Clemente Gordon

11 296 MIA Mark Barsotti

12 307 TAM Todd Hammel

12 309 PHO Jeff Bridewell

12 311 IND Gene Benhart

12 312 SEA John Gromos

12 316 CLE Keithen McCant

12 317 RAI Major Harris

12 318 PIT Cornelius Benton

12 321 HOU Reggie Slack

12 334 NYG Larry Wanke

12 335 BUF Matt Rodgers

SUCCESS: 2/28

 

[Aabye]

So overall that's:

1st Rd. 18/43

2nd Rd. 3/20

3rd Rd. 3/23

4th Rd. 3/33

5th Rd. 1/24

6th Rd. 4/34

7th Rd. 1/39

8-12th Rd. 2/28

 

[madd futher]

So overall that's:

1st Rd. 18/43

2nd Rd. 6/20

3rd Rd. 3/23

4th Rd. 3/33

5th Rd. 1/24

6th Rd. 4/34

7th Rd. 1/39

8-12th Rd. 2/28

Aabye's summary is almost identical to my own drawn from 18 years of data.YR ..#drafted .. # "hits" ... 1st round successes.............. other quality Picks: ............ 1st round busts

1989 ....10 ..... 1 ................... Troy Aikman (1)

1990 ....13 ..... 1 ................... Jeff George (1) ......................................................................... Andre Ware (7)

1991 ....10 ..... 1 ................................................. Brett Favre (33) ........ Dan McGuire (16), Todd Marinovich (24)

1992 ....15 ..... 0 ..................................................................................... David Klinger(6), Tommy Maddox(25)

1993 .....8 ..... 3 ................... Drew Bledsoe(1) ..... Mark Brunell(118), Trent Green (222) .............. Rick Mirer (2),

1994 .....9 ..... 0 ..........................................................................................Heath Schuler (3), Trent Dilfer (6)

1995 ....13 ..... 2 ................... Steve McNair (3), Kerry Collins (5)

1996 .....6 ..... 0

1997 .....9 ..... 1 ..................................................... Jake Plummer (42) ........................ Jim Druckenmiller (26)

1998 .....7 ..... 2 ................. Peyton Manning (1) ...... Matt Hasselbeck* (187) ....................... Ryan Leaf (2)

1999 ....13 ..... 2 ................ Donavan McNabb (2) .................................... T Couch (1) Akili Smith (3), C McNown (12)

.......................................... Dante Culpepper (11)

2000 ....11 ..... 3 ................ Chad Pennington (18) .....Marc Bulger (168), Tom Brady (199)

2001 ....11 ..... 2 ................ Michael Vick (1), Drew Brees (32)

2002 ....15 ..... 1 ................................................... David Garrard (108) ....................... David Carr (1), Joey Harrington(3),

................................................................................................................................. Patrick Ramsey (32)

2003 ....13 ..... 1 ................ Carson Palmer (1) ................................. Byron Leftwich (7), Kyle Boller (19, Rex Grossman (22)

2004 ....17 ..... 4 ................. Eli Manning(1), ................ Matt Schaub (90) ........................ J P Losman (22)

.............................. Philip Rivers(4), Ben Roethlisberger (11),

2005 ....13 ..... 4 ................. Aaron Rodgers (24), ....... Kyle Orton (106), .................... Alex Smith (1)

.......................................... Jason Campbell (25) ....... Matt Cassell (230)

2006 ....11 ..... 2 ................. Vince Young(3), Jay Cutler(11) ........................................ Matt Leinart (10)

18 years 204 ..30 ............................ 19 .......................................11 ..................................... 22

TOP 10 1ST RD PICKS ................... 12 ................................................................................. 13

LATE ROUND PICKS .................................................................163 ... 6.75 %

2007 ....10 .... inc ............... Kevin Kolb ? ................................................. JaMarcus Russell (1), Brady Quinn (22)

2008 ....13 .... inc ................Josh Freeman (17), Matt Stafford(1),

...........................................Mark Sanchez (5)

2006 – Quarterbacks

Rd # Player College Team

1 3 Vince Young Texas Tennessee Titans

1 10 Matt Leinart USC Arizona Cardinals

1 11 Jay Cutler Vanderbilt Denver Broncos

2 49 Kellen Clemens Oregon New York Jets

2 64 Tarvaris Jackson Alabama State Minnesota Vikings

3 81 Charlie Whitehurst Clemson San Diego Chargers

3 85 Brodie Croyle Alabama Kansas City Chiefs

5 148 Ingle Martin Furman Green Bay Packers

5 164 Omar Jacobs Bowling Green State Pittsburgh Steelers

6 194 Bruce Gradkowski Toledo Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7 223 D.J. Shockley Georgia Atlanta Falcons

2005 – Quarterbacks

Rd #

1 1 Alex Smith Utah San Francisco 49ers

1 24 Aaron Rodgers California Green Bay Packers

1 25 Jason Campbell Auburn Washington Redskins

3 67 Charlie Frye Akron Cleveland Browns

3 69 Andrew Walter Arizona State Oakland Raiders

3 85 David Greene Georgia Seattle Seahawks

4 106 Kyle Orton Purdue Chicago Bears

4 121 Stefan LeFors Louisville Carolina Panthers

5 145 Dan Orlovsky Connecticut Detroit Lions

5 152 Adrian McPherson Florida State New Orleans Saints

6 213 Derek Anderson Oregon State Baltimore Ravens

7 230 Matt Cassel USC New England Patriots

7 250 Ryan Fitzpatrick Harvard St. Louis Rams

2004 – Quarterbacks

1 1 Eli Manning Mississippi San Diego Chargers

1 4 Philip Rivers North Carolina State New York Giants

1 11 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) Pittsburgh Steelers

1 22 J.P. Losman Tulane Buffalo Bills

3 90 Matt Schaub Virginia Atlanta Falcons

4 106 Luke McCown Louisiana Tech Cleveland Browns

5 148 Craig Krenzel Ohio State Chicago Bears

6 185 Andy Hall Delaware Philadelphia Eagles

6 187 Josh Harris Bowling Green State Baltimore Ravens

6 193 Jim Sorgi Wisconsin Indianapolis Colts

6 201 Jeff Smoker Michigan State St. Louis Rams

7 202 John Navarre Michigan Arizona Cardinals

7 217 Cody Pickett Washington San Francisco 49ers

7 218 Casey Bramlet Wyoming Cincinnati Bengals

7 225 Matt Mauck Louisiana State Denver Broncos

7 248 B.J. Symons Texas Tech Houston Texans

7 250 Bradlee Van Pelt Colorado State Denver Broncos

2003 – Quarterbacks

1 1 Carson Palmer USC Cincinnati Bengals

1 7 Byron Leftwich Marshall Jacksonville Jaguars

1 19 Kyle Boller California Baltimore Ravens

1 22 Rex Grossman Florida Chicago Bears

3 88 Dave Ragone Louisville Houston Texans

3 97 Chris Simms Texas Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4 110 Seneca Wallace Iowa State Seattle Seahawks

5 163 Brian St. Pierre Boston College Pittsburgh Steelers

6 192 Drew Henson Michigan Houston Texans

6 200 Brooks Bollinger Wisconsin New York Jets

6 201 Kliff Kingsbury Texas Tech New England Patriots

7 232 Gibran Hamdan Indiana Washington Redskins

7 241 Ken Dorsey Miami (Fla.) San Francisco 49ers

2002 – Quarterbacks

1 1 David Carr Fresno State Houston Texans

1 3 Joey Harrington Oregon Detroit Lions

1 32 Patrick Ramsey Tulane Washington Redskins

3 81 Josh McCown Sam Houston State Arizona Cardinals

4 108 David Garrard East Carolina Jacksonville Jaguars

4 117 Rohan Davey Louisiana State New England Patriots

5 137 Randy Fasani Stanford Carolina Panthers

5 158 Kurt Kittner Illinois Atlanta Falcons

5 163 Brandon Doman Brigham Young San Francisco 49ers

5 164 Craig Nall Northwestern State-Louisiana Green Bay Packers

6 186 J.T. O’Sullivan California-Davis New Orleans Saints

7 216 Seth Burford Cal Poly-S.L.O. San Diego Chargers

7 232 Jeff Kelly Southern Mississippi Seattle Seahawks

7 235 Ronald Curry North Carolina Oakland Raiders

7 236 Wes Pate Stephen F. Austin St. Baltimore Ravens

2001 – Quarterbacks

1 1 Michael Vick Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons

2 32 Drew Brees Purdue San Diego Chargers

2 53 Quincy Carter Georgia Dallas Cowboys

2 59 Marques Tuiasosopo Washington Oakland Raiders

4 106 Chris Weinke Florida State Carolina Panthers

4 109 Sage Rosenfels Iowa State Washington Redskins

4 125 Jesse Palmer Florida New York Giants

5 149 Mike McMahon Rutgers Detroit Lions

5 155 A.J. Feeley Oregon Philadelphia Eagles

6 172 Josh Booty Louisiana State Seattle Seahawks

6 177 Josh Heupel Oklahoma Miami Dolphins

2000 – Quarterbacks

1 18 Chad Pennington Marshall New York Jets

3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi Hofstra San Francisco 49ers

3 75 Chris Redman Louisville Baltimore Ravens

5 163 Tee Martin Tennessee Pittsburgh Steelers

6 168 Marc Bulger West Virginia New Orleans Saints

6 183 Spergon Wynn Texas State Cleveland Browns

6 199 Tom Brady Michigan New England Patriots

6 202 Todd Husak Stanford Washington Redskins

7 212 Tim Rattay Louisiana Tech San Francisco 49ers

7 214 Jarious Jackson Notre Dame Denver Broncos

7 234 Joe Hamilton Georgia Tech Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1999 – Quarterbacks

1 1 Tim Couch Kentucky Cleveland Browns

1 2 Donovan McNabb Syracuse Philadelphia Eagles

1 3 Akili Smith Oregon Cincinnati Bengals

1 11 Daunte Culpepper Central Florida Minnesota Vikings

1 12 Cade McNown UCLA Chicago Bears

2 50 Shaun King Tulane Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3 77 Brock Huard Washington Seattle Seahawks

4 101 Joe Germaine Ohio State St. Louis Rams

4 131 Aaron Brooks Virginia Green Bay Packers

5 151 Kevin Daft California-Davis Tennessee Titans

7 227 Michael Bishop Kansas State New England Patriots

7 239 Chris Greisen Northwest Missouri State Arizona Cardinals

7 245 Scott Covington Miami (Fla.) Cincinnati Bengals

1998 – Quarterbacks

1 1 Peyton Manning Tennessee Indianapolis Colts

1 2 Ryan Leaf Washington State San Diego Chargers

2 60 Charlie Batch Eastern Michigan Detroit Lions

3 86 Jonathan Quinn Middle Tennessee State Jacksonville Jaguars

3 91 Brian Griese Michigan Denver Broncos

6 187 Matt Hasselbeck Boston College Green Bay Packers

7 232 Moses Moreno Colorado State Chicago Bears

1997 – Quarterbacks

1 26 Jim Druckenmiller Virginia Tech San Francisco 49ers

2 42 Jake Plummer Arizona State Arizona Cardinals

4 99 Danny Wuerffel Florida New Orleans Saints

4 110 Pat Barnes California Kansas City Chiefs

6 171 Mike Cherry Murray State New York Giants

6 191 Chuck Clements Houston New York Jets

7 204 Tony Graziani Oregon Atlanta Falcons

7 207 Koy Detmer Colorado Philadelphia Eagles

7 234 Wally Richardson Penn State Baltimore Ravens

1996 – Quarterbacks

2 42 Tony Banks Michigan State St. Louis Rams

3 85 Bobby Hoying Ohio State Philadelphia Eagles

4 100 Jeff Lewis Northern Arizona Denver Broncos

4 130 Danny Kanell Florida State New York Giants

7 238 Jon Stark Trinity International Baltimore Ravens

7 240 Kyle Wachholtz USC Green Bay Packers

1995 – Quarterbacks

1 3 Steve McNair Alcorn State Houston Oilers

1 5 Kerry Collins Penn State Carolina Panthers

2 45 Todd Collins Michigan Buffalo Bills

2 60 Kordell Stewart Colorado Pittsburgh Steelers

3 80 Stoney Case New Mexico Arizona Cardinals

3 84 Eric Zeier Georgia Cleveland Browns

4 99 Rob Johnson USC Jacksonville Jaguars

4 111 Chad May Kansas State Minnesota Vikings

4 119 Dave Barr California Philadelphia Eagles

4 134 Steve Stenstrom Stanford Kansas City Chiefs

5 160 Jay Barker Alabama Green Bay Packers

6 197 Craig Whelihan U. of Pacific San Diego Chargers

7 213 John Walsh Brigham Young Cincinnati Bengals

1994 – Quarterbacks

1 3 Heath Shuler Tennessee Washington Redskins

1 6 Trent Dilfer Fresno State Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4 111 Perry Klein C.W. Post Atlanta Falcons

4 116 Doug Nussmeier Idaho New Orleans Saints

6 178 Jim Miller Michigan State Pittsburgh Steelers

7 197 Gus Frerotte Tulsa Washington Redskins

7 198 Jay Walker Howard New England Patriots

7 199 Steve Matthews Memphis Kansas City Chiefs

7 208 Glenn Foley Boston College New York Jets

1993 – Quarterbacks

1 1 Drew Bledsoe Washington State New England Patriots

1 2 Rick Mirer Notre Dame Seattle Seahawks

3 58 Billy Joe Hobert Washington Los Angeles Raiders

5 118 Mark Brunell Washington Green Bay Packers

7 192 Gino Torretta Miami (Fla.) Minnesota Vikings

8 216 Alex Van Pelt Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Steelers

8 219 Elvis Grbac Michigan San Francisco 49ers

8 222 Trent Green Indiana San Diego Chargers

1992 – Quarterbacks

1 6 David Klingler Houston Cincinnati Bengals

1 25 Tommy Maddox UCLA Denver Broncos

2 40 Matt Blundin Virginia Kansas City Chiefs

2 46 Tony Sacca Penn State Phoenix Cardinals

4 86 Craig Erickson Miami (Fla.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4 102 Casey Weldon Florida State Philadelphia Eagles

4 107 Will Furrer Virginia Tech Chicago Bears

4 112 Chris Hakel William & Mary Washington Redskins

6 166 Jeff Blake East Carolina New York Jets

8 211 Kent Graham Ohio State New York Giants

8 220 Bucky Richardson Texas A&M Houston Oilers

8 222 Mike Pawlawski California Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9 227 Brad Johnson Florida State Minnesota Vikings

9 228 T.J. Rubley Tulsa Los Angeles Rams

9 230 Ty Detmer Brigham Young Green Bay Packers

Sup Dave Brown Duke New York Giants

1991 – Quarterbacks

1 16 Dan McGwire San Diego State Seattle Seahawks

1 24 Todd Marinovich USC Los Angeles Raiders

2 33 Brett Favre Southern Mississippi Atlanta Falcons

2 34 Browning Nagle Louisville New York Jets

4 84 Scott Zolak Maryland New England Patriots

4 99 Donald Hollas Rice Cincinnati Bengals

4 106 Bill Musgrave Oregon Dallas Cowboys

7 190 Paul Justin Arizona State Chicago Bears

10 260 Pat O’Hara USC Tampa Bay Buccaneers

11 284 Shawn Moore Virginia Denver Broncos

1990 – Quarterbacks

1 1 Jeff George Illinois Indianapolis Colts

1 7 Andre Ware Houston Detroit Lions

3 59 Tom Hodson Louisiana State New England Patriots

3 63 Peter Tom Willis Florida State Chicago Bears

3 70 Neil O’Donnell Maryland Pittsburgh Steelers

4 84 Troy Taylor California New York Jets

4 86 Cary Conklin Washington Washington Redskins

4 93 Scott Mitchell Utah Miami Dolphins

5 135 Craig Kupp Pacific Lutheran New York Giants

6 138 John Friesz Idaho San Diego Chargers

6 156 Mike Buck Maine New Orleans Saints

12 311 Gene Benhart Western Illinois Indianapolis Colts

12 321 Reggie Slack Auburn Houston Oilers

1989 – Quarterbacks

1 1 Troy Aikman UCLA Dallas Cowboys

2 32 Mike Elkins Wake Forest Kansas City Chiefs

2 51 Billy Joe Tolliver Texas Tech San Diego Chargers

3 74 Anthony Dilweg Duke Green Bay Packers

3 83 Erik Wilhelm Oregon State Cincinnati Bengals

4 87 Jeff Graham Long Beach State Green Bay Packers

4 102 Jeff Carlson Weber State Los Angeles Rams

6 140 Jeff Francis Tennessee Los Angeles Raiders

6 141 Rodney Peete USC Detroit Lions

11 296 Wayne Johnson Georgia Indianapolis Colts

Sup Timm Rosenbach Washington State Phoenix Cardinals

Sup Steve Walsh Miami (Fla.) Dallas Cowboys

One can quibble about whether David Carr, for instance, should be classsified as a 1st round success based on his years as a starter for Houston, or a first round bust. We know for sure that he never developed into anything resembling a 'franchise' QB.

So you could make a case for moving a few of these guys from one category or another, but it will have negligible impact on the data results, and it sure doesn't affect the validity of the conclusions I drew from the data:

Statistically, over half of the teams in the NFL will NOT have anything even resembling a 'franchise' QB - which is a huge factor separating the 'haves' from the have-nots'.

If I were a GM of any of these teams - WAS, CIN, KC, MIA, BUF, TEN, JAX, SF, CAR, SEA, OAK, CLE, MIN, AZ, I would be looking to draft a QB if I could trade up or if a 1st round caliber QB fell to me. In addition, if I were a GM of NO, IND or NE, I would be looking for a 'franchise quality' understudy to take over in just a few years.

So if this is really a good year for QBs, there could be about 4 1st round QBs in this draft class, and 2 will be busts. Two QB 'hits' would indeed be above the average. There should be about 15 teams chasing them.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

So overall that's:

1st Rd. 18/43

2nd Rd. 3/20

3rd Rd. 3/23

4th Rd. 3/33

5th Rd. 1/24

6th Rd. 4/34

7th Rd. 1/39

8-12th Rd. 2/28

Good data to play with.Hit rates of QBs by round

First round QBs 18 / 43 = .4186

or 41%

Second round 6 / 20 = .30

Or 30%

Third round 3 / 23 = .13

Or 13%

Fourth round 3 / 33 = .09

Or 9%

Fifth round 1 / 24 = .041

Or 4%

Sixth round 4 / 34 = .1176

Or 11%

Seventh round 1 / 39 = .0256

Or 2%

Eighth round 2 / 28 = .071

Or 7%

 

[CalBear]

And instead of taking in the big picture some people will miss the big picture and focus on one small thing and complain about data. The big picture is glaring, the results ALL show the two dramatic and undeniable conclusions.1. A small number of QBs become effective2. The BEST PLACE to find an effective QB is in the top 5/10 of an NFL draft

Don't you think this is equally true of all the other important positions? An OT, CB, WR, RB in the top 5/10 is less likely to bust than an OT, CB, WR, RB in the second round. That's tautological; it doesn't tell you anything about whether it's better to take a CB or a QB with the 1.05 draft pick.

 

[Bri]

Good study by Tefertiller but I think it may be missing something basic.

This was the methodology he used to come to his conclusions.

-- The methodology for determining a successful draft pick will be based on the following metrics:

The number of seasons in the NFL. The longer the career span, the better chance the player was an asset to fantasy owners.

The number of seasons the player finished as a fantasy starter (using 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE as the starting lineup) in a 12-team league.

The number of seasons as an elite fantasy starter (finishing in top six quarterback or tight end, or top twelve running back or wide receiver).

In addition, a ratio was used for the two metrics above. The ratio divides the number of seasons finishing at the metric level by the number of seasons in the NFL. It was included to help distinguish players of varying career lengths. --

He breaks down where players went off the board into six categories:

1. Draft Area 2. # Seasons 3. Viableseasons 4. Viability Ratio 5. Elite Seasons 6. Elite Ratio

He provides an effectiveness rating but doesn't provide the raw number of players drafted to do simple ratio comparisons of players higher in the draft can compare to those drafted later.

The first row of the first column says top five QBs but doesn't give the raw numbers of players who were drafted in the top five and so on for the next row of Picks 6-10 in the first column.

-- quarterbacks drafted since 1990. The Top 5 overall picks --

Great study but missing something basic so we can use the raw data to do quick and dirty comparisons of how many players went off the board and how much more or less effective taking a player higher/lower in the draft actually is. Also we know of Tom Brady and Marc Bulger skewing results of sixth round QBs but if those two expections are taken out then just howe effective is drafting a QB in the sixth round? The only way to determine that is to have the raw data so we can make that statistical comparison.

And instead of taking in the big picture some people will miss the big picture and focus on one small thing and complain about data. The big picture is glaring, the results ALL show the two dramatic and undeniable conclusions.

1. A small number of QBs become effective

2. The BEST PLACE to find an effective QB is in the top 5/10 of an NFL draft

I think jeff did a very nice job with that. i forgot he did those.I don't think it's flawed for not posting the data. Geesh it's long enough. If ya want the data dominator then go to that link.

I gotta say I find it hard to believe that you read that and wrote "top 5/10". He clearly pointed out NONE from 6-10 were worth considering.

Those are piddly things though.

So why does Jeff come up with far more than 1.4 or whatever the number was?

 

[Bri]

Statistically, over half of the teams in the NFL will NOT have anything even resembling a 'franchise' QB - which is a huge factor separating the 'haves' from the have-nots'.

Half? That's 16 in one year. I thought it was 30 in 18 years?I'm nagging because like I said earlier, it just looks like your standard is too high. You seem to have the data and are all set ready to go here man. Just tweak it and rethink it please

 

[madd futher]

So overall that's:

1st Rd. 18/43

2nd Rd. 3/20

3rd Rd. 3/23

4th Rd. 3/33

5th Rd. 1/24

6th Rd. 4/34

7th Rd. 1/39

8-12th Rd. 2/28

Good data to play with.Hit rates of QBs by round

First round QBs 18 / 43 = .4186

or 41%

Second round 6 / 20 = .30

Or 30%

Third round 3 / 23 = .13

Or 13%

Fourth round 3 / 33 = .09

Or 9%

Fifth round 1 / 24 = .041

Or 4%

Sixth round 4 / 34 = .1176

Or 11%

Seventh round 1 / 39 = .0256

Or 2%

Eighth round 2 / 28 = .071

Or 7%

The second round in this study is 3 out of 20 or 15%, NOT 6 of 20 or 30%, which also conforms closely with my 18 year study which yeilds 3 of 16 (and only if you count Drew Brees who was the 32nd pick in the 2001 draft. While he was technically a 2nd rounder that year, the 32nd pick is normally a 1st round pick, and I considered him a 1st rounder for purposes of my study). So the drop-off in the success rate from the first round 'hits' is staggering.

 

[madd futher]

Statistically, over half of the teams in the NFL will NOT have anything even resembling a 'franchise' QB - which is a huge factor separating the 'haves' from the have-nots'.

Half? That's 16 in one year. I thought it was 30 in 18 years?I'm nagging because like I said earlier, it just looks like your standard is too high. You seem to have the data and are all set ready to go here man. Just tweak it and rethink it please

Look at my full set of data. It is all there. Are my standards too high or are yours too low? Which ones would you consider successes that I consider failures? I stand by my statement that over half of the NFL teams will not have anything resembling a franchise QB. Are we really arguing about the word 'resembling'?

 

[Bri]

And instead of taking in the big picture some people will miss the big picture and focus on one small thing and complain about data. The big picture is glaring, the results ALL show the two dramatic and undeniable conclusions.1. A small number of QBs become effective2. The BEST PLACE to find an effective QB is in the top 5/10 of an NFL draft

Don't you think this is equally true of all the other important positions? An OT, CB, WR, RB in the top 5/10 is less likely to bust than an OT, CB, WR, RB in the second round. That's tautological; it doesn't tell you anything about whether it's better to take a CB or a QB with the 1.05 draft pick.

I do.I like every pick that doesn't go along with a mock.At the time, I liked the Lions taking a third WR and a second one. With Bey, I actually thought "well at least Davis knows he loves the guy."I'll tell ya I wasn't sure on Bradford or Suh last year and even wondered about McCoy over Suh(Sooner DT not Texas QB). I liked that St. Louis and the Lions seemed sure and it worked great for each. I remember the Saints loving Arrington and Colston. One miss, one homerun. I'd be so fine with that as a Saints fan. When a pick seems like you can picture a GM leaning his head down and reasoning it as "well, he was the best player available" that stinks. I hate it. I don't care if they take a FB five rounds too early, at least love your picks.We get all carried away with this but we're really talking about (roughly) seven players and I'd guess on average only four are going to make a team. This is an enormous production for that few players. I'd much rather conviction.

 

[madd futher]

And instead of taking in the big picture some people will miss the big picture and focus on one small thing and complain about data. The big picture is glaring, the results ALL show the two dramatic and undeniable conclusions.

1. A small number of QBs become effective

2. The BEST PLACE to find an effective QB is in the top 5/10 of an NFL draft

Don't you think this is equally true of all the other important positions? An OT, CB, WR, RB in the top 5/10 is less likely to bust than an OT, CB, WR, RB in the second round. That's tautological; it doesn't tell you anything about whether it's better to take a CB or a QB with the 1.05 draft pick.

Actually, according to my 18 years of data, the best place to pick a QB is anywhere in the 1st round, period. The data suggests that the 1st 10 picks do not fare statistically better or worse than picks 11 - 32, HOWEVER, the drop-off from the first round to the second and subsequent rounds are substantial.Here is my take away for dynasty fantasy purposes:

In a 12 team dynasty league with only one QB scoring, you often will be able to trade a stud RB for an equivalent stud QB even up. But by far, you will be getting the best of the deal because it is MUCH easier to draft for a stud RB than a stud QB.

In an 18 team or larger dynasty league, you probably need to give up maybe two stud RBs (or a stud RB and a stud TE) in order to get a stud QB - and you will likely need a stud QB to compete for the championship.

Another approach is to draft for one and hope you hit. Here are four solid Parcells rules for drafting a QB - If you can hit three of the four, (as well as observe most of the criteria described above, I think you can significantly increase the odds of drafting a 'Franchise QB":

1. He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.

2. He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.

3. He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasn’t ephemeral and that he has lived as “the guy” for some period of time.

4. He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games.

I would add a 5th for fantasy purposes:

5. You should only draft a QB who was selected in the 1st round. The chance of drafting a QB successfully in the lower rounds are only about 1 in 15. (see my study below). As you can see from the data, your chances of hitting in the 1st round successfully are less than 50%, but below that, the hit percentage is miniscule!

Again, lets assume that 4 QBs - Newton, Gabbert, Ponder, and Kaepernick - will be drafted in the 1st round of this years draft and we can assume that two of them will be busts. If these are the four, the ones I would take a chance on would be Ponder, Kopernick, or (possibly Gabbert) in that order. Ponder and Kaepernick meet all 5 criteria. I believe that Gabbert misses only one - two at most. Locker in the 1st round? He doesn't qualify based on lack of games won. Mallett does not qualify on several counts. Newton misses on at least two of them; and besides - would an Aaron Rodgers, a Brady, a Manning, or a Brees EVER say in ANY context that they are an entertainer and an icon? Seriously. What separates them is that they are "film rats". Yes they find time to do endorsement deals, but that is a by-product of their meticulous preparation. I would maintain that all of them would rather study film than shoot a commercial.

Ponder and Kopernick may not have the most awesome talent, but - and only if they are selected in the first round - they are the ones I would hook my wagon to if I was in a dynasty league of 18 or more teams.

 

[CalBear]

I would add a 5th for fantasy purposes:5. You should only draft a QB who was selected in the 1st round. The chance of drafting a QB successfully in the lower rounds are only about 1 in 15.

That depends on where you're drafting, don't you think? If it's the fourth round of a dynasty rookie draft, are any of the other players hitting at better than a 1 in 15 rate?

 

[madd futher]

I would add a 5th for fantasy purposes:5. You should only draft a QB who was selected in the 1st round. The chance of drafting a QB successfully in the lower rounds are only about 1 in 15.

That depends on where you're drafting, don't you think? If it's the fourth round of a dynasty rookie draft, are any of the other players hitting at better than a 1 in 15 rate?

You didn't read the rest of that thought. Of course it depends on who you draft....that's why the other 4 criteria offer a framework. And there are still no guarantees!

 

[CalBear]

I would add a 5th for fantasy purposes:5. You should only draft a QB who was selected in the 1st round. The chance of drafting a QB successfully in the lower rounds are only about 1 in 15.

That depends on where you're drafting, don't you think? If it's the fourth round of a dynasty rookie draft, are any of the other players hitting at better than a 1 in 15 rate?

You didn't read the rest of that thought. Of course it depends on who you draft....that's why the other 4 criteria offer a framework. And there are still no guarantees!

I don't think those four criteria are particularly useful in differentiating prospects. Would you rather have Matt Leinart or Matt Schaub? Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers? Leinart and Smith meet the criteria; Schaub and Rodgers don't. NFL players, particularly quarterbacks, are individuals. Historical analysis of the characteristics of QBs as a population will not tell you much about the prospects for any individual going forward.

 

[madd futher]

I would add a 5th for fantasy purposes:

5. You should only draft a QB who was selected in the 1st round. The chance of drafting a QB successfully in the lower rounds are only about 1 in 15.

That depends on where you're drafting, don't you think? If it's the fourth round of a dynasty rookie draft, are any of the other players hitting at better than a 1 in 15 rate?

You didn't read the rest of that thought. Of course it depends on who you draft....that's why the other 4 criteria offer a framework. And there are still no guarantees!

I don't think those four criteria are particularly useful in differentiating prospects. Would you rather have Matt Leinart or Matt Schaub? Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers? Leinart and Smith meet the criteria; Schaub and Rodgers don't. NFL players, particularly quarterbacks, are individuals. Historical analysis of the characteristics of QBs as a population will not tell you much about the prospects for any individual going forward.

Perhaps not, but it is interesting to note that of the eight quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the 2000s, five -- Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger (2), Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Trent Dilfer -- met all four requirements when drafted. And I believe that Aaron Rodgers met 3 of the 4 criteria. Rodgers, Big Ben, Eli, Peyton, and Dilfer were all 1st rounders, my 5th criteria. So if I HAD to pick a QB to take for my fantasy team in this year's class, I'd go with the history!

 

[CalBear]

Perhaps not, but it is interesting to note that of the eight quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the 2000s, five -- Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger (2), Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Trent Dilfer -- met all four requirements when drafted. And I believe that Aaron Rodgers met 3 of the 4 criteria.

Dilfer didn't meet the criteria. And it should not be considered shocking that most Super Bowl winning QBs were successful in college.

 

[CalBear]

Perhaps not, but it is interesting to note that of the eight quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the 2000s, five -- Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger (2), Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Trent Dilfer -- met all four requirements when drafted. And I believe that Aaron Rodgers met 3 of the 4 criteria. Rodgers, Big Ben, Eli, Peyton, and Dilfer were all 1st rounders, my 5th criteria. So if I HAD to pick a QB to take for my fantasy team in this year's class, I'd go with the history!

The history is that Alex Smith sucks and Aaron Rodgers is a Super Bowl MVP.

 

[madd futher]

Perhaps not, but it is interesting to note that of the eight quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the 2000s, five -- Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger (2), Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Trent Dilfer -- met all four requirements when drafted. And I believe that Aaron Rodgers met 3 of the 4 criteria.

Dilfer didn't meet the criteria. And it should not be considered shocking that most Super Bowl winning QBs were successful in college.

You are right about Dilfer not meeting the criteria. So make that 4 out of 8 then.But it is my belief without analyzing all 19 "successful" 1st round QBs in my 18 year study, I'd guess that most of them met 3 out of the 4 criteria. I'll leave it to somebody else to study them in that detail. Look, it is a given that if you are ABSOLUTELY SURE of your ability to identify a 1st round 'hit' (like Al Davis was with JaMarcus), then by all means ignore the criteria. For mere mortals like myself, this is the best I can do.BTW, the 4 criteria are not mine. I collected them from somewhere. I believe it maybe was Parcells' criteria for drafting a QB, but I could be wrong on which Head Coach or GM crafted them.

 

[CalBear]

Look, it is a given that if you are ABSOLUTELY SURE of your ability to identify a 1st round 'hit' (like Al Davis was with JaMarcus), then by all means ignore the criteria. For mere mortals like myself, this is the best I can do.

How do you know it's the best you can do? Is it any more predictive than trivial algorithms like "always draft the player who went higher in the NFL draft"?

 

[madd futher]

Look, it is a given that if you are ABSOLUTELY SURE of your ability to identify a 1st round 'hit' (like Al Davis was with JaMarcus), then by all means ignore the criteria. For mere mortals like myself, this is the best I can do.

How do you know it's the best you can do? Is it any more predictive than trivial algorithms like "always draft the player who went higher in the NFL draft"?

Well, we already know that drafting a QB chosen in th 1st round has about a 5 times (just a rough number) probability of success relative to a later round selection, but still bats less than 50%. Since I haven't yet put all of the first round draftees to the test of predictive value relative to those first four criteria, I can't tell you that it is a canary in a coal mine type indicator. On an intuitive level, I would expect that it would be another predictor. When I (or someone else) gets the time, I'm sure it would make for an interesting study.

 

[Bri]

Statistically, over half of the teams in the NFL will NOT have anything even resembling a 'franchise' QB - which is a huge factor separating the 'haves' from the have-nots'.

Half? That's 16 in one year. I thought it was 30 in 18 years?I'm nagging because like I said earlier, it just looks like your standard is too high. You seem to have the data and are all set ready to go here man. Just tweak it and rethink it please

Look at my full set of data. It is all there. Are my standards too high or are yours too low? Which ones would you consider successes that I consider failures? I stand by my statement that over half of the NFL teams will not have anything resembling a franchise QB. Are we really arguing about the word 'resembling'?

I mean well.Your results are too extreme. I've pointed that out in the previous two posts. It's somewhat obvious.

Somewhere you're on the right track with teams wasting picks on guys that'll never work out....then when you get to actual starters it's off.

Try working backwards instead by starting with the starters.

Earlier it was an especially good QB and now we're talking "Franchise QB" .

A GM is considered to have made a decent pick if a player plays the average career length and a good pick if he plays longer. Here we discuss productivity and we should but ya know if Dallas wanted Jason Garrett as a career backup to Aikman then their GM nailed that pick.

Peyton and Brady aren't just franchise QBs they're best ever QBs. They need to be above and beyond here. They'd have rocked in any era.

(There's some disagreement earlier re Todd and Kerry) Kerry Collins was an excellent pick. Been to NFCC 2 or 3 times and one or two Supes, played a long time. I'm not putting Kerry in the hall. I'm not going to dissect whether it was him, the team around him, the coaching decisions...he did enough to make it a good pick.

But hang on, if ya got him as a good pick...

was Schaub a good pick by the Falcs? Favre? Where was Warner first Falcons? Was he undrafted? Hass a good pick by the Pack. Did anyone really think Cassel would start one day over Brady in NE?

These guys that did well elsewhere but didn't do much for the team that drafted them. Is that skewing your numbers?

I'm not a Vince Young fan by any stretch but he was rook of the year and is a winner. Headcase or not, the GM picked the rook of the year. That's gotta be worth something. IMO this is the start of the thought process where people lean toward blaming Fisher. Nonetheless the pick was fine.

Ya got Leinart and Leaf and Shuler surely calculated in as busts.

There's something off.

You asked for 16 franchise QBs and I have a few minutes-

Looking at standings at PFR

Brady, Sanchez=2

Henne...eh I don't know but 2800 to 3300 yards, he's coming along. Maybe

Bills-nothing

Roth and Palmer sure are.(4)

I think Flacco is. I'm not his biggest fan but he does what the Ravens need him to do, they appreciate him and seems like he's a long time QB (5)

I like McCoy. Too early to tell.

Peyton is. Garrard is. (7)

Cassel and Rivers are. People are on and off the Cassel bandwagon so I guess it depends on judging. Just count Rivers here. (8)

Oakland and Ten-no

Schaub is. (9)

Who knows about Tebow/Orton

Vick is (10)

Eli, Romo, McNabb all are (13)

Cutler and Rodgers are (15)

Jury is out on Stafford.

Favre isn't retired is he? lol

Ryan, Brees, Freeman are (18)

Panthers need to draft 3 more QBs this year.

If Hass is a Seahawk he is. QB for 10 years has gotta be. (19)

I'm comfy already saying Bradford is (20)

Niners and Cards should just stop drafting QBs and sign FAs.

I got 20.

That would leave 12 teams that almost have to draft a QB or sign a FA QB even if as insurance. This leads to the poor draft results IMO.

Orton is so much more of a sure thing than anyone that could be drafted since we already know what he can do. Draft day is about potential though and there's probably 100 QBs that GMs will pretend can throw for 5k yards per year on draft day. The draft is mighty pretentious. I have no prob with the concept. It must have been the best time of the year for Lions fans in the past. They had hope for a little while.

I don't think you can get lost thinking about potential here though. It's a little bit of a trap when dissecting drafts.

Again, I think you're on the right track you're just off somewhere. I hope I stirred something up, triggered some idea.

 

[coolnerd]

I think this thread overall puts some numbers behind what many people already think is going on. Basically at least half of theleague has sobpar QBing, but has to risks (maybe even too much risk) in order to get the QB because the payoff is too high.