MAC_32
Footballguy
One major difference - the Bills committed themselves to give Allen every chance to work through his growing pains. The Colts have done the opposite with Richardson and have given no indication that'll change.
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QB Anthony Richardson, IND (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
(HULK)
(Smash)
Since Richardson was a #4 overall pick... my belief is that if he can show a step or two forward, they'll ride him into next season and see if he can continue to progress.
If he can't improve on last year, he's going to get traded for peanuts.
warpig33
Footballguy
This guy is a complete enigma. Arguably the strongest arm in the NFL (which has been displayed a few times), but I think he gets rattled in the pocket and his accuracy suffers. His athletic ability is off the charts and if he could figure it out, he'd be one of the greatest. He's still young and raw and we all knew that going into the draft. I think the Indy fans here are 50/50...half still believe in him and half want him gone. I think the biggest problem other than his accuracy woes, is he lost a lot of his teammates when he tapped out during that one game. Even the front office lost a lot of respect. The untapped potential keeps us all salivating, but if he doesn't get his conditioning, game awareness, and accuracy figured out, he's gonna be on a very short leash and may end up a backup or out of the league within a couple/few years. I, for one, am still rooting for him. He seems to be a good kid. But damn AR...get out of your own head and play!
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I keep seeing the TE Loveland being mocked to Indy, it would definitely help him since he knows how to get open.
And I view the Colts TE needs super overrated because I think they got a good group of WR's already they struggle to get the ball to.
Don't you think Downs and Pittman know how to get open? And for all of Pierce's faults he is a very nice big play outside threat and AD Mitchell has a ton of talent.
Just never have thought pass catchers was close to a major need for them. But everyone and their mother mocks Warren or Loveland to them in round one so I guess everyone sees it different then me. They need a TE, just not a big time one IMO.
farfromforgotten
Footballguy
This is where I’m at as well. It’s not like the Colts have had complete scrubs for AR to throw at during his time there. What good is another one going to do? I think it’s pretty terrible for fantasy and am hoping that Warren and Loveland end up elsewhere.
warpig33
Footballguy
The local radio pundits in Indy are saying the Colts "have to" take a TE. Either all their TE's on the roster are
or they don't game plan to incorporate them much. I think it would help AR if they had more designed RB dump offs or a play making TE in the short/mid range game. Their WRs are solid and the running game is one of the best in the league. Adding a play making TE wouldn't be a bad thing. And if AR STILL doesn't progress, well, then they have their answer on the kid.Right, I understand what everyone is saying and it's not local radio it's everyone. 99% of mocks have them taking a TE and about only one's that don't are mocks with Loveland and/or Warren gone.The local radio pundits in Indy are saying the Colts "have to" take a TE. Either all their TE's on the roster are
I continue to say they need a TE, they don't need a round one TE because they have quality pass catchers they already struggle to get the ball to. Downs and Pittman are terrific in the short mid/range game.
If I was them I'd pass. Look at a Taylor in round two if he's available(I don't think he will be). If they strike out just throw a 2026 day three pick to Philly and pair Steichen back with Goedert(which I'm rooting against because I'd hate it for Goedert). Andrews probalby can be had for a 4th as well if they prefer him. Mayer likely much less then both of them. There are options out there, arguably easiest position in the league right now to trade for need. Build up the OL or defense instead in round one.
But I don't have the confidence to go against 99% of the world so I'm sure I'm going to be wrong here and they will draft Warren or Loveland in round one.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Well…duh….ya think
Boston
Footballguy
Anthony Richardson sidelined by shoulder injury
Colts HC Shane Steichen said Richardson should be able to return "at some point" in training camp.
www.nbcsports.com
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Was he brushing his teeth?Anthony Richardson sidelined by shoulder injury
Colts HC Shane Steichen said Richardson should be able to return "at some point" in training camp.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Rough start for a pivotal year for AR. Danny Dimes licking his chops… Offense is loaded if they could get the right signal caller.Anthony Richardson sidelined by shoulder injury
Colts HC Shane Steichen said Richardson should be able to return "at some point" in training camp.
When using terminology like "right now" he does not need surgery it's fair to at least wonder if his season will end before it starts.Rough start for a pivotal year for AR. Danny Dimes licking his chops… Offense is loaded if they could get the right signal caller.Anthony Richardson sidelined by shoulder injury
Colts HC Shane Steichen said Richardson should be able to return "at some point" in training camp.
Bittersweet for me but on the whole hate to see it. Have been grabbing AR a few places on the cheap because I still believe in his fantasy upside but also have been grabbing some Pittman and Downs in case he either got good enough to get them the ball or got replaced. I'd have preferred to see him able to be healthy enough to compete and if bringing in Jones to push him was what he needed to elevate his game but way this seems now is if avoids surgery he'll likely need to wait for Jones to fail.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I like Downs a lot as a player and think he will eventually have a nice FF impact. He is a great buy low imo and will be trying to acquire myself.When using terminology like "right now" he does not need surgery it's fair to at least wonder if his season will end before it starts.Rough start for a pivotal year for AR. Danny Dimes licking his chops… Offense is loaded if they could get the right signal caller.Anthony Richardson sidelined by shoulder injury
Colts HC Shane Steichen said Richardson should be able to return "at some point" in training camp.
Bittersweet for me but on the whole hate to see it. Have been grabbing AR a few places on the cheap because I still believe in his fantasy upside but also have been grabbing some Pittman and Downs in case he either got good enough to get them the ball or got replaced. I'd have preferred to see him able to be healthy enough to compete and if bringing in Jones to push him was what he needed to elevate his game but way this seems now is if avoids surgery he'll likely need to wait for Jones to fail.
I was super heavy on Downs last year, my second highest drafted receiver(maybe overall) and I can tell you he already had a nice FF impact, it was just mainly without AR at QB.I like Downs a lot as a player and think he will eventually have a nice FF impact. He is a great buy low imo and will be trying to acquire myself.When using terminology like "right now" he does not need surgery it's fair to at least wonder if his season will end before it starts.Rough start for a pivotal year for AR. Danny Dimes licking his chops… Offense is loaded if they could get the right signal caller.Anthony Richardson sidelined by shoulder injury
Colts HC Shane Steichen said Richardson should be able to return "at some point" in training camp.
Bittersweet for me but on the whole hate to see it. Have been grabbing AR a few places on the cheap because I still believe in his fantasy upside but also have been grabbing some Pittman and Downs in case he either got good enough to get them the ball or got replaced. I'd have preferred to see him able to be healthy enough to compete and if bringing in Jones to push him was what he needed to elevate his game but way this seems now is if avoids surgery he'll likely need to wait for Jones to fail.
Injuries are Downs other issue. A whole lot of knick knack stuff.
Pittman is also underrated now and I've actually leaned towards him over Downs in leagues without waivers(BB drafts) because of his durability over Downs. But then I also just read he went down in OTA, probably minor, but another sign that injuries are hard to predict.
I expect both of these two to shoot up draft boards a few rounds now.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Sore shoulder from throwing. Did he not rehab and get in throwing sessions prior to OTAs? They were in shorts and helmets, not like he got knocked to the ground. Kind of disappointing, but now IND can see that Jones is awful, and that they need AR back. Also, get Riley Leonard more reps.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
His previous surgery was 2023 so he's probably well past the rehab phase of that surgery and he's been working with Josh Allen's QB coach this off-season so he's been throwing.
Could be a situation where the work with the QB coach to improve his mechanics impacted his shoulder and/or part of his issues throwing the ball last year was an effort to protect his shoulder.
Faust
MVP
NFL on ESPN
"I've never seen anyone more destined to be in the 2026 Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback competition than Anthony Richardson."
@bykevinclark believes Richardson needs a fresh start somewhere besides the Colts
Blue Wave
Footballguy
They should just start Leonard all year. There's zero reason the Colts shouldn't be tanking for Arch, it just makes too much sense.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Not burying him yet, but he has two tremendous hurdles to overcome. Staying healthy is one thing, but he needs to be much more consistent in the short and intermediate passing game or he will have a hard time finding a coach that wants to have him leading their offense. Steichen’s seat is not getting any cooler and I doubt he will hesitate to put Jones in if AR is completing 40% of his passes. This offense is fairly loaded and should be one of the better scoring offenses in the league….with competent quarterback play.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
The clock is ticking.
Sure but you are telling me what we already know with the injuries and play and that's why he's in a battle for his job.
I would not call the offense fairly loaded. Some good weapons, no true #1WR, we don't really know what kind of receiving option rookie Warren will be and the OL has some issues. I'd label it average on the whole.
With regards to the often repeated issue of Stiechen, and Ballard keeping their jobs. Things seem a bit more complicated to get a handle on with Jim Irsay's passing, who knows the patience level or lack thereof of his daughter? But I've long been of the opinion that Daniel Jones doing an adequate job at QB won't nearly secure your job in the way that Anthony Richardson actually improving and playing at high enough level they'd choose to pick up his 5th year option would. Even if Jones plays adequate level he's a one and one contract and they'd head into next off-season with no QB of the future. AR failing to develop would have to be seen as a major negative to both Ballard and Stiechen and that failure I believe is more likely to cost them their job then Jones rising up to league average type play would save it.
But more the my point there is a chance AR is back at or near the start of training camp and will ultimately have just missed out on a few OTA sessions and mandatory mini-camp. I stress IF that's all he's out this is going to be out I think people are not only prematurely burying him but also prematurely annointing Jones the starter.
No doubt the Colts have to go with whoever gives them the best shot to win and be competitiive. I'm just saying all things being equal it would behoove the entire franchise if that guy was AR and that's why I've always disagreed with the public sentiment that Jones had a leg up. I absolutely concede the injury might have changed that and moved Jones to the forefront, but again if AR does not miss much or any camp I think the competition is back on in full.
massraider
Footballguy
This injury won't give Jones the leg up.
It'll be the next injury.
Here's a stat I just made up, that I'm sure is true: Richardson has more injuries in his football career than college games played.
It'll be the next injury.
Here's a stat I just made up, that I'm sure is true: Richardson has more injuries in his football career than college games played.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I agree. I am probably higher than most on the skill position players the Colts have. I really like Downs, Pittman is solid, Pierce is a good deep threat, Adonai is a developing talent with speed, and we shall see what Warren brings. With Taylor in the backfield as well, this team should be contending for the division imo.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Arch isnt leaving Texas until 2027 tho. And no one even knows he’ll be a top 10 pick.
TheWinz
Footballguy
But is it really? If you look at all the time he has missed, he has played roughly 13 full games in 2 seasons. If you take his stats and extrapolate for 17 games, he would have:
Passing
230 completions
455 attempts
3127 yards
14 TD's
17 INT's
Rushing
145 attempts
827 yards
13 TD's
Last year, this would've placed him QB10, if he were to miss no time at all. And I am being generous by only counting his 3 partial games as 1 game. His rushing is elite, but his passing is so bad, I don't know how he can have massive upside without getting way way better. And there is no way he's rushing 145 times and remaining on the field.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Good post. I will add that I do not think he is an elite rusher of the football, however I do think based on his size he is great around the goal line. He is obviously well above average, but he is not quick twitch like Lamar, etc. He is also a big target and does not do a great job of protecting himself.
I think so and one of the reasons I base that is is he was #8 last year in fantasy points per drop back and I think it was higher the previous season.
I don't think it's generous if the discussion is upside because that implies he's not getting injured as that would not be his upside.
I worked it out a little differently but we are not that far off. I'd either remove every single game he did not finish and only use full games or extrapolate the snaps to games played.
For sake of ease I'll use the second option and work of snaps per games played. Last season Colts played 63.94 offensive snaps per game. In his career he's played 793 snaps which equates to roughly were you landed but a little more generous in that it worked out to 12.4 games. If you take his actual scoring and extrapolate that to a per game it works out to 22.10 fantasy points per game.
This works out to really being very much in-line with his fantasy points per dropback and would have placed him at QB9 last year, half a point behind Darnold. Again we are not far off so no biggie on this, we should probably both be able to agree he's in the QB10'ish range in full completed games. Right?
But my final point is I'm not disagreeing he's been a horrible passer and that's kind of why I say he has immense upside because to me he's already given you top 10 numbers as a horrendous passer and his per game number of pass attempts using that 12.4 game model is a paltry 14.2 pass attempts per game. There is a lot of room for growth and if he can just move those passing numbers up to 2-3 points a game he's in top 5 range.
Pie in the sky/wishful thinking? Fair to say IMO but he's super young, very raw, and still has a lot of growth potential in theory. I've just seen him come out in some of these games in the past and just piling on fantasy points right from the jump and the upside seems huge, he just almost never finished those games.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Yes, QB10ish. To me, that's not legit massive fantasy upside. Not unless he a) can remain upright, and b) increase his passing by a large margin. The chances of both happening are next to zero for me. And if he/IND tries to limit his running, he will be horrible for fantasy. So, the ONLY way he has legit upside is to run like the wind without getting injured.
jm192
Footballguy
I've always prided myself on being one of Richardson's top haters.
Certainly, if his passing improves significantly, it's a different discussion. But that's ALWAYS been the question with Richardson. I was never a believer in his passing ability. After 2 years of him failing to improve it--I'm not buying it going into year 3.
I think we're clearly at a point he has to improve his passing just to keep the job. I think Daniel Jones is a far more competent QB. And It's Daniel Jones we're talking about here.
Certainly, if his passing improves significantly, it's a different discussion. But that's ALWAYS been the question with Richardson. I was never a believer in his passing ability. After 2 years of him failing to improve it--I'm not buying it going into year 3.
I think we're clearly at a point he has to improve his passing just to keep the job. I think Daniel Jones is a far more competent QB. And It's Daniel Jones we're talking about here.
I'll agree to disagree that a guy who is QB10'ish a few points away from a being top 5 while doing squat as a passer does not have immense upside or agree he's going to keep getting hurt if he keeps running at this pace, which is similar to Hurts. Sometimes it's just bad luck which turns but then I don't think you are really looking at this as his upside.Yes, QB10ish. To me, that's not legit massive fantasy upside. Not unless he a) can remain upright, and b) increase his passing by a large margin. The chances of both happening are next to zero for me. And if he/IND tries to limit his running, he will be horrible for fantasy. So, the ONLY way he has legit upside is to run like the wind without getting injured.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I know we are calling him QB10'ish, but in reality, he has finished QB40 and QB25 in his 2 seasons (actually, we can't say finished, pun intended). No one is trying to call Joe Flacco 2023's QB4, but that's where he finished PPG. I know this is a stretch, but it reminds me of how Chuck Liddell got KO'ed by Rampage Jackson or Ronda Rousey got headkicked by Holly Holm. After those fights, they combined for 1 win and 8 losses, then retired. Prior to that, they combined for 32-3 record. Some guys just play in such a way that injury is inevitable.I'll agree to disagree that a guy who is QB10'ish a few points away from a being top 5 while doing squat as a passer does not have immense upside or agree he's going to keep getting hurt if he keeps running at this pace, which is similar to Hurts. Sometimes it's just bad luck which turns but then I don't think you are really looking at this as his upside.Yes, QB10ish. To me, that's not legit massive fantasy upside. Not unless he a) can remain upright, and b) increase his passing by a large margin. The chances of both happening are next to zero for me. And if he/IND tries to limit his running, he will be horrible for fantasy. So, the ONLY way he has legit upside is to run like the wind without getting injured.
Well he's really QB8 or 9 how I view but I was being generous calling him QB10'ish.I know we are calling him QB10'ish, but in reality, he has finished QB40 and QB25 in his 2 seasons (actually, we can't say finished, pun intended). No one is trying to call Joe Flacco 2023's QB4, but that's where he finished PPG. I know this is a stretch, but it reminds me of how Chuck Liddell got KO'ed by Rampage Jackson or Ronda Rousey got headkicked by Holly Holm. After those fights, they combined for 1 win and 8 losses, then retired. Prior to that, they combined for 32-3 record. Some guys just play in such a way that injury is inevitable.I'll agree to disagree that a guy who is QB10'ish a few points away from a being top 5 while doing squat as a passer does not have immense upside or agree he's going to keep getting hurt if he keeps running at this pace, which is similar to Hurts. Sometimes it's just bad luck which turns but then I don't think you are really looking at this as his upside.Yes, QB10ish. To me, that's not legit massive fantasy upside. Not unless he a) can remain upright, and b) increase his passing by a large margin. The chances of both happening are next to zero for me. And if he/IND tries to limit his running, he will be horrible for fantasy. So, the ONLY way he has legit upside is to run like the wind without getting injured.
At the end of the day we talking past each other and starting to have different conversations because you keep referencing what's led to his missing games or not piling up stats to make him QB'10ish or worse and I'm talking about what his potential is if those things can be remedied. You are more focused on what's been, I'm more focused on the per snap guy and what just a small ounce of improvement can be.
Again, we can agree to disagree.
jm192
Footballguy
I agree with you that he has that high upside. I agree with @TheWinz that he's very unlikely to reach it.Well he's really QB8 or 9 how I view but I was being generous calling him QB10'ish.I know we are calling him QB10'ish, but in reality, he has finished QB40 and QB25 in his 2 seasons (actually, we can't say finished, pun intended). No one is trying to call Joe Flacco 2023's QB4, but that's where he finished PPG. I know this is a stretch, but it reminds me of how Chuck Liddell got KO'ed by Rampage Jackson or Ronda Rousey got headkicked by Holly Holm. After those fights, they combined for 1 win and 8 losses, then retired. Prior to that, they combined for 32-3 record. Some guys just play in such a way that injury is inevitable.I'll agree to disagree that a guy who is QB10'ish a few points away from a being top 5 while doing squat as a passer does not have immense upside or agree he's going to keep getting hurt if he keeps running at this pace, which is similar to Hurts. Sometimes it's just bad luck which turns but then I don't think you are really looking at this as his upside.Yes, QB10ish. To me, that's not legit massive fantasy upside. Not unless he a) can remain upright, and b) increase his passing by a large margin. The chances of both happening are next to zero for me. And if he/IND tries to limit his running, he will be horrible for fantasy. So, the ONLY way he has legit upside is to run like the wind without getting injured.
At the end of the day we talking past each other and starting to have different conversations because you keep referencing what's led to his missing games or not piling up stats to make him QB'10ish or worse and I'm talking about what his potential is if those things can be remedied. You are more focused on what's been, I'm more focused on the per snap guy and what just a small ounce of improvement can be.
Again, we can agree to disagree.
You keep saying "If only he can pass a little better." But his passing is the crux of the issue. He's not an okay passer that needs to get a little better. He's an objectively bad passer who has a long way to go. I would argue he has to improve by more than a little to ensure he keeps the starting spot.
You want to give him the benefits of the "per snap" but ignore the downside. He gets hurt a lot. And a lot of that is related to the rushing/goal line attempts. The thing that gives him such fantasy success also leads to him taking a beating.
And so when you say "If he can just do a little more in the passing game..." Well, that assumes his rushing stays the same. That assumes he continues getting nearly a touchdown per game. And then you're asking him to stay healthy while doing those things.
He could give you 2 games of QB1 overall and miss the season. You'd certainly be able to argue "See, I told you he could be QB1". But did it really help your fantasy team that much?
TheWinz
Footballguy
Good post. Yes, we can agree to disagree. I'm having a hard time ranking the IND skill players, and I think it boils down to the fact that I don't know what the QB situation is going to be like.Well he's really QB8 or 9 how I view but I was being generous calling him QB10'ish.I know we are calling him QB10'ish, but in reality, he has finished QB40 and QB25 in his 2 seasons (actually, we can't say finished, pun intended). No one is trying to call Joe Flacco 2023's QB4, but that's where he finished PPG. I know this is a stretch, but it reminds me of how Chuck Liddell got KO'ed by Rampage Jackson or Ronda Rousey got headkicked by Holly Holm. After those fights, they combined for 1 win and 8 losses, then retired. Prior to that, they combined for 32-3 record. Some guys just play in such a way that injury is inevitable.I'll agree to disagree that a guy who is QB10'ish a few points away from a being top 5 while doing squat as a passer does not have immense upside or agree he's going to keep getting hurt if he keeps running at this pace, which is similar to Hurts. Sometimes it's just bad luck which turns but then I don't think you are really looking at this as his upside.Yes, QB10ish. To me, that's not legit massive fantasy upside. Not unless he a) can remain upright, and b) increase his passing by a large margin. The chances of both happening are next to zero for me. And if he/IND tries to limit his running, he will be horrible for fantasy. So, the ONLY way he has legit upside is to run like the wind without getting injured.
At the end of the day we talking past each other and starting to have different conversations because you keep referencing what's led to his missing games or not piling up stats to make him QB'10ish or worse and I'm talking about what his potential is if those things can be remedied. You are more focused on what's been, I'm more focused on the per snap guy and what just a small ounce of improvement can be.
Again, we can agree to disagree.
That's not true, I'm simply discussing his upside.
I'm being extremely literal on him being just a little better.
He only gives you about 12 fantasy points a game as a passer and using those per game 12.4 proration I did earlier the gap between him and QB5(Daniels) is about 2.7 fantasy points. In order for him to close that gap without throwing any more passes then the 28 a game he's thrown, which is a pretty low number, he'd need to do something like complete 3 more passes a game(about 61%) or more realistically something like complete 2 more passes a game improve his TD pace from less then one a game to something like 1.25 a game. I'm talking very small steps and honestly if he can't do this he probably can't remain a starting QB.
Yes, he'd have to basically be like Hurts which has the power(not Hurts level but a lot) and a lot more speed to pull off. As for staying healthy that's a given but it's not like he's the first person to suffer a myraid of injuries his first few years and then remain relativley healthy. Rushing QB's tend to get hurt more often. Lamar dealt with it, Hurts has missed a few games. AR's started off way worse then those two ever have done, does not mean a young guy like him can't turn that around.
Long story short. Improve about 2-3 fantasy points a game and stay on the field and he's going to be in top 5 QB range.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I'm sorry. I was willing to listen to everything you said until you ended with top 5 QB range. Our discussion started with QB10'ish, then you went to QB9 or QB8, and now you are saying QB5. If you are going to keep raising the bar, I am going to keep lowering it. Richardson will never finish as a QB1, and by that I mean a top 12 QB in total points. Sure, he can finish as a top 8 PPR QB, but over the last 5 years, so have Joe Milton, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Flacco, Davis Webb, Sam Howell, and Marcus Mariota. His 50.6% lifetime completion percentage isn't just bad - it's brutally awful. Of all the rostered QB's right now, I couldn't find a single one with a lower completion percentage. He's literally a RB they hike the ball to. He sucks, and will be out of the league in the next 2 years.
Actually our discussion started with you responding to my post asking if he really had elite upside. Which is a fair question.
For the other part I really am confused what does make sense. His full game performance is in line with a QB in the 8-10 range, number I pegged at around 22 FPG. That's 2.7 points away from last years QB5. So yes, I'll say again, if he remains on the field to finish games AND improves 2-3 fantasy points a game he'll be in top 5 QB range.
I'll put this another way though saying top 10.
Finish games healthy. He's top 10 or someone I'd peg around 22 fpg.
Finish games healthy and improve 2-3 points and he'll be top 5, in the 24-25 fpg range.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Fair enough, but let me reply with this...
Richardson will never finish a season healthy, so you projecting a top 5 finish is the same as projecting a top 5 finish for the garbage QB's I listed above. They all managed QB1 status in limited starts, just like Richardson, but no person in their right mind would project them as a full season QB5, including you. You're imagining a world where Richardson increases his completion percentage by nearly 10 points while maintaining his rushing prowess, and no such world exists.
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