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QB Baker Mayfield, TB (1 Viewer)
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
There are still people who believe in Tyrod Taylor.
I do agree that if the Jet safety didn’t drop that easy interception in the end zone, the Mayfield excitement may have been slowed a little depending on whether or not it was a game changer but as a suffering Jets fan who was praying for Taylor to stay in the game, there was a world of difference between Taylor and Mayfield.
Now does that mean Mayfield is a guaranteed perennial Pro Bolwer? Of course not. But he looked great.
I do agree that if the Jet safety didn’t drop that easy interception in the end zone, the Mayfield excitement may have been slowed a little depending on whether or not it was a game changer but as a suffering Jets fan who was praying for Taylor to stay in the game, there was a world of difference between Taylor and Mayfield.
Now does that mean Mayfield is a guaranteed perennial Pro Bolwer? Of course not. But he looked great.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Or conversely what happens as Mayfield becomes more acclimated to the game at the NFL level.
ETA - BTW, I think I agree with you in that we don’t know yet how his career will shake out. You can only take the sample performances as they come and decide to modify or not modify your position based upon the existing body of evidence as it grows. IMO, so far, so good.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
If you go strictly by the book, the numerical number of proving statistical significance is 5% which forms a steep curve of Mead's equation that has a of mean of 95% (which what would normally be 0 on a standard deviation bell curve that most people are familiar with) but to show statistical significance the two-tailed sampling distribution of -1.96 to +1.96 is required. The sample size of 32 can be used by Mead's equation. Most people think of what they were taught in school which is the standard deviation or the normal deviation which have -1 to +1 with a mean of 0 and a classic bell shaped dispersal pattern... Back on point
Stats are used in many ways so it really depends on what your null hypothesis is but basically the generally acceptable number is 5% with a sample size of 32 to show statistical significance.
Look at the historically high NFL passing averages over the first two weeks and you don't even have to crunch numbers to see that Tyrod Taylor's numbers which meet the sample size are statistically significantly well below average over the first two weeks and the numbers he produced Thursday Night are far below average.
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The league-wide marks for touchdown passes (114), passer rating (92.6), completions (1,516) and completion percentage (65.3%) are all the highest through the first two weeks of a season in @NFL history.
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Tyrod has been statistically below his own career numbers this season so the Browns were not seeing the guy they signed as a free agent even before bringing Mayfield into the equation but both have well documented numbers on second per thrown dating back to college that can be compared side-by-side and Tyrod's sack numbers have been significantly higher than the NFL norm over his career so it would be possible to prove statistical significance of his second per per throw to sacks taken and you could even cross-tabulate his historically low INT rate into a table and I'm sure some analytical muckity-mucks have those numbers handy but I don't and I'm not all that interested in doing that homework.
Bottom line, he's performed well below his average and that is more than enough information to go with Baker even before he can thresh out a higher sample size.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
PFF crunches numbers all of the time so they have a lot of data to compare apples to apples with rookie QBs and Baker has set the new all-time high.
They also posted Tyrod's numbers (I'm not bashing Tyrod, I like him but his numbers are just not all that great).
Cleveland Browns: PFF grades highlight Baker Mayfield’s historic night
They also posted Tyrod's numbers (I'm not bashing Tyrod, I like him but his numbers are just not all that great).
Cleveland Browns: PFF grades highlight Baker Mayfield’s historic night
matuski
Footballguy
I am a huge fan.. honestly electric when he came in the game Thursday night.
But I don't think we can take much from it regarding what to expect moving forward.
matuski
Footballguy
Are these records for one half of football? He hasn't even played a game yet.
Again - huge fan but this is the hyperbole stuff that needs to have the breaks pumped a bit.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Baker attempted 23 passes in his NFL debut.
The 1st round rookie QB he faced attempted 21 passes in his NFL debut.
I'd say that its fair to say he met the minimum number of attempts to compare his debut with other rookie QBs.
matuski
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Not sure what difference it makes, but thanks for the ad hoc. We're all a bunch of losers spending our time on a FF message board. I just call it like I see it, wrong or right. My life is the same whether Tyrod is good or bad. So is yours.Bronco Billy said:
Mayfield is such a completely different QB from Tyrod, I think it's pretty hard to judge from one half of football - against a team who didn't prepare for the latter. The quick release thing is awesome and especially against an unprepared defense. It's even more apparent after watching Tyrod the first half. But it doesn't always work though. When the quick pass is covered how will Mayfield do? I'm not saying Mayfield sucks or anything, just maybe the hype is a little up there. Not even saying Tyrod is good, but he's not as terrible as everybody is suggesting. He's average, which is still ok. Look at Fitzpatrick.
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When the quick release is covered, he'll move to option #2 and throw to that guy. That's where Taylor just takes off running. Tyrod is just horrible. He's completely worthless. His game plan is to not make any mistakes and continue collecting paychecks as a loser. Thus he will never make throws that Mayfield made Thursday night because he's afraid to. A QB that plays afraid is a loser. See Bradford. See David Carr.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He's not apt for traditional quarterbacking, I'll give you that. I hope the Pats pick him up somehow and find a way to use him.
*Last one, I promise*
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matuski
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
Has anyone ever mentioned how hard it is to have a linear conversation with you? You are all over the place.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
we just watched Mayfield in his first NFL game, and it was historic.
I watched Mayfield all thru college, and while he may not have done anything historic, he was far and away the BEST qb around. a QB i begged and pleaded CLE to take despite groupthink praying for saquon or darnold, mostly.
based on hard facts, aka what we've been able to see... he is doing EXACTLY in the nfl, what he did in college.
funny how "we'll see what happens when teams scheme for him", because in Thursday night's telecast I believe Aikman EXPLICITLY stated that the Jets told him "they schemed for Mayfield" just in case.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Let's not forget Mayfield is a rookie QB. It's nearly always a bad combination so I'm sure there'll be mistakes.
That said, the data (& not just this past game) suggests he's well on his way to being an elite QB in time.
Eyeball is the truest test & Mayfield has passed with flying colors so far.
That said, the data (& not just this past game) suggests he's well on his way to being an elite QB in time.
Eyeball is the truest test & Mayfield has passed with flying colors so far.
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Soulfly3
Footballguy
The amount of leeway he'll get from Browns fans after what he did Thursday, will be (rightfully) immense.
Will he have bumps? Sure. Will he throw picks? Ya. Will he miss guys here and there? Who doesnt?
he broke a 635 day curse. he gave fans something to believe in. he looks like a star.
good enough for now.
Will he have bumps? Sure. Will he throw picks? Ya. Will he miss guys here and there? Who doesnt?
he broke a 635 day curse. he gave fans something to believe in. he looks like a star.
good enough for now.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Baker Mayfield had the advantage?
The rookie QB who never took a practice rep and only logged 10 first team snaps in the preseason had the advantage in his first very first NFL game?
Baker Mayfield had barely played with the Browns starters
Meanwhile Sam Darnold was taking first team snaps a month before his first start.
Jets' Sam Darnold: Gets first-team reps at practice
Yeah, I bet that really helped Baker.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
kids a baller, has the moxie...the manziel comparisons were lazy (not saying you made them).
matuski
Footballguy
How much college tape do you think NFL teams watch when preparing for NFL teams? Was Cleveland watching USC tape to prep for Darnold?
Regardless .. point stands - let's wait and see how a game goes where the other team is prepping for him before crowning the guy.
This from a fan - I truly hope he gets to be crowned, easily my favorite moment this year when he entered the game.
daveR
Footballguy
To be honest, it looked like the Jets game-planned the D to stop TT's short game, which they did. I don't know that they adjusted when he went out.
TripItUp
Footballguy
He's always had the Moxie and there is no question that's a big reason for his popularity among fans.
I questioned his accuracy at the NFL level and his ability to get through progressions, not to mention his height isn't ideal.
His accuracy thus far appears to be elite and his reads are way above average for a rookie. NFL defenses are going to try to find a way to disrupt his success, we'll see if they can.
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DallasDMac
Footballguy
I honestly don't get all the "wait till they have film on him" comments. It isn't like the Browns ran some gimmick offense with Mayfield. WRs ran the usual routes WRs run. Teams have plenty of film on Rogers, Cousins, Brady, etc week after week, yet they still succeed. If you were talking a Tebow type QB where they tailor an offense to him to hide weaknesses, that's one thing. But Mayfield was out their running the same playbook that Taylor was. What is the tape going to show, that he stands in the pocket and finds the open receiver? Oh man, now that we know that, we can shut him down!
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
This promises to be interesting...
I agree with getting game tape. But I've already seen enough to know that game tape won't stop Mayfield.
If Hue goes full blown stupid, the boos in Cleveland next Sunday will be heard in the next galaxy and they aren't even playing in Cleveland.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
It was more of a "wait until teams prepare for him" comment.
But are you serious on the "what is the tape going to show" comment?
eta - re reading that - it sure seems you are serious.
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Thomas The Skank Engine
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
If you are a fan then you know PFF had Baker Mayfield listed as their #1 QB entering the draft. PFF Big Board: Top 250 players for the 2018 NFL Draft
PFF never flinched. John Dorsey who not only selected Patrick Mahomes last year he moved up to get ahead of teams to select Mahomes never flinched either, he could have taken anyone but took Mayfield. The second he entered the game, without having practiced with the first team and only 10 snaps in the preseason the game changed because he did something that TT wasn't or couldn't do, he attacked the middle of the field. Mayfield’s pass chart and Tyrod Taylor’s
Mayfield hadn't gotten reps to establish timing with WRs or work with his O-Line so they got a feel for how he moves in the pocket/drops/timing. Yet he saw, he did not hesitate, he attacked the middle of the field.
The defense adjusted and guess what happened?
Carlos Hyde blew up.
The advantage that Baker Mayfield will get with 1st team practice reps with the WRs/TEs/RBs/OL and the coaches to establish game plans that highlight his strengths/negate his weakness is going to help him more than tape will find some sort of kryptonitic Achilles heel weakness. The DC made adjustments that closed one door and Haley and Mayfield adjusted to open up the running game. Teams won't allow the Browns to walk over them and beat them with the running game, they won't.
It isn't any coincidence that the running game had not been working all year for the Browns up until Baker Mayfield entered the game and began slicing up the Jets and THEN their DC adjusted and all of a sudden Carlos Hyde is gashing them and scoring.
Bottom line, PFF had Mayfield as their top QB even before he took a snap and graded him higher than any rookie QB in his debut in their history. A guy who hadn't taken a 1st team practice rep. No disrespect but do you do hours and hours of tape study? They do.
You scoffed at the Browns using USC tape to prepare for Sam Darnold. Heck yeah they used every bit of tape they had to prepare.
Browns hope research on Sam Darnold gives them edge in Thursday night bout vs. Jets
No disrespect but I definitely side with PFF over you who would question if teams study college tape to prepare for a rookie QB.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Damn right they did. the end of bad QBs in Cleveland. Tie can go somewhere like Dallas now.
matuski
Footballguy
You have a tendency to go overboard serious on this stuff.
And yet my position remains the same.. lets see what happens when teams are prepping for him.
It isn't me versus PFF. It is hyperbole versus common sense.
