2) Don't sleep on Dak Prescott in 2018. Speaking of No. 1 receivers, I find it interesting that so many skeptics question whether Prescott can guide the Dallas Cowboys' offense without a real WR1 on the field. I've previously outlined why the offense will function just fine without Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, but I really believe Prescott is capable of doing some Tom Brady-like things in 2018, thanks to his increased comfort level with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan.
"In over two years, he's made a lot of strides," Linehan said earlier this offseason, via USA Today. "I think in your third year, you just kind of start to get it. 'These are the highs, these are the lows of the position. I've got to maintain this level of consistency in my play so I can play at the best of my ability.' ... Some guys have better second years than first years, whatever it is, it's unique to each guy. But by the time you get to the third year, you have pretty good control of what you're doing, how things work and then how you got to maintain that level of ... not too high, not too low."
To that point, I've been taught by quarterback developers like Mike Holmgren and Andy Reid that it typically takes about 30 games to get a good feel for what you have in a QB1. A young quarterback not only needs enough reps to figure out the speed and pace of the pro game, but he needs plenty of game experience to know his own strengths and weaknesses as a player. Moreover, a quarterback needs to develop a strong rapport with his play caller to help the offensive coordinator design an attack that consistently elevates his play.
"You have to build the system around your quarterback," a former AFC head coach told me. "After 30 or so games, you know exactly what they're capable of doing and you have to tilt the system to their strengths to help them thrive as passers."
With that in mind, I would expect Prescott to take another step in his development entering his third season in the same system. Granted, that system is being retrofitted to better suit No. 4's game after originally being designed with Tony Romo in mind. That's even more reason to believe Dak will break out in 2018.
Based on the numbers from his first two seasons, Prescott is at his best when he spreads the ball around to a variety of playmakers, as opposed to just force-feeding the ball to a designated No. 1 guy. In games when he targets eight or more receivers, Dak has a 14-2 record with a 24:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 104.5 passer rating. On the other hand, Prescott has posted an 8-8 mark with a 21:13 TD-to-INT ratio and an 86.1 passer rating when he targets seven or fewer receivers in game. Crazy, huh?
That's why Prescott has downplayed the loss of Bryant at every turn: The force-feeding approach actually hindered his game. Despite targeting No. 88 on 133 pass attempts last year, Dak only hooked up with Dez on 51.8 percent of those throws. By comparison, Ben Roethlisbergerconnected with Antonio Brown at a 62.3 percent rate, while Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen had a 64.1 percent clip.
Another reason Prescott will flourish in 2018? A full season of Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield. His presence completely changes how opponents defend the offense. The 2016 NFL rushing leader will force opponents to play more "plus-one" fronts with single-high safety coverage. This will create more one-on-one opportunities for the Cowboys' unsung WR corps.
With the quarterback intent on getting the ball to the first receiver to come open -- instead of force-feeding it to Bryant -- the Dallas' offense could look like a ball-movement NBA squad with No.4 playing point guard. Considering the Golden State Warriors' success with that approach, the Cowboys could see Prescott channel his inner Steph Curry while directing a retooled offense in 2018.