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QB Deshaun Watson, CLE (3 Viewers)

ghostguy123 said:
If Watson allows a bidding war to happen, he might be the dumbest player in the league.

Why on Earth would he say something like "any one of these three teams"???

There will absolutely not be a bidding war.
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He has leverage, they have leverage.

My guess is, they say to him: Yes, these teams will pay a fair amount, here's your list. That's their leverage.

He then goes on a tour of steakhouses in those cities, and agrees to waive his no-trade clause for that team. That's his leverage. 

 
Deshaun got paid $10M last year to not play football.  He's a lot of things, but dumbest player in the league is likely not one of them.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Maybe part of the trade and destination involves him getting an extension, more bonus money, and a reworked deal with hardly any salary for this year. He would only lose salary money from a suspension, not bonus money.
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Perhaps, but none of it will have to do with trade compensation 

 
phandango said:
It'll be super interesting to see the terms of the offers from the teams that didn't get Watson. 
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Agreed.  Since IIRC Washington offered more than Denver for Wilson.  But Wilson said no to the Dysfunctional Capital.  

Just because you make the "best offer" to Hou does not mean Watson will agree.  

 
Doug B said:
Who's the WR?
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Allen Robinson.

Indirectly, probably. Maybe he has a deal with ATL, but only if they DON'T get Watson. Something like that. There are 4 teams that are holding up their moves for Watson, and then a bunch of teams waiting on free agents that are waiting on THOSE teams. It all gos down when the Massage King signs. 

Either way, as soon as Watson agrees, my plan is to pack a fat bowl and head over to Twitter.

 
massraider said:
Allen Robinson.

Indirectly, probably. Maybe he has a deal with ATL, but only if they DON'T get Watson. Something like that. There are 4 teams that are holding up their moves for Watson, and then a bunch of teams waiting on free agents that are waiting on THOSE teams. It all gos down when the Massage King signs. 

Either way, as soon as Watson agrees, my plan is to pack a fat bowl and head over to Twitter.
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Love the new Nickname! 

 
I thought this would be done by 3 pm EST today but at least we appear close, as I suspected Watson seems to be the holdup:

@JayGlazer

Teams involved in Deshaun Watson trade talks believe an answer is coming perhaps as early as today/tonight.

@JayGlazer

But even after Watson picks his destination Texans could still try to get a little more compensation so that could drag out more

 
massraider said:
Allen Robinson.

Indirectly, probably. Maybe he has a deal with ATL, but only if they DON'T get Watson. Something like that. There are 4 teams that are holding up their moves for Watson, and then a bunch of teams waiting on free agents that are waiting on THOSE teams. It all gos down when the Massage King signs. 

Either way, as soon as Watson agrees, my plan is to pack a fat bowl and head over to Twitter.
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Ah, I assumed you meant Adams after he said he won’t play on the tag. 

 
Does following betting lines ever pan out?

Action Network
@ActionNetworkHQ

Deshaun Watson heading to New Orleans? Saints' Super Bowl odds @PointsBetUSA have moved from 50-1 to 20-1 over the past hour
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Not a bettor, so I don't know if this kind of thing is bettor-driven line manipulation or something going on from the book's end.

 
Doug B said:
Does following betting lines ever pan out?
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sometimes, yes. This last super bowl is a good example. Underdog covered every iteration of the line as it shifted. But the books were signaling that they thought the rams would win.  

Doug B said:
Not a bettor, so I don't know if this kind of thing is bettor-driven line manipulation or something going on from the book's end.
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A little of all of that.

however, it can also be a book hedging against what they see as the likely outcome. 

 
RC94 said:
I think today is the official start of the season so now his $35 million cap hit is on HOU's books.  That was the "deadline". 
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That was also a thing with Terron Armstead -- now he's somehow got $13 million on the Saints' 2022 books though he's a FA. Maybe money previously moved to a semi-sketchy "void year" as Loomis likes to do?

 
Doug B said:
Does following betting lines ever pan out?

Not a bettor, so I don't know if this kind of thing is bettor-driven line manipulation or something going on from the book's end.
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They're getting out in front of any wiseguys. You heard the Tom Brady story right?

Some sharp out in Vegas unloaded on TB for Conference and Super Bowl title the day before he un-retired. Westgate Sportsbook wants an investigation, but since no one cares if a casino takes a bath, no one cares. haw haw haw

 
RC94 said:
I think today is the official start of the season so now his $35 million cap hit is on HOU's books.  That was the "deadline". 
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I thought I read his $35M is not guaranteed until March 20.  

There is different language is several contracts, but his was identified as March 20 not the start of the season.  

 
Birdie048 said:
I thought I read his $35M is not guaranteed until March 20.  

There is different language is several contracts, but his was identified as March 20 not the start of the season.  
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Could be the case.  I was just thinking off the top of my head about something I heard on a podcast while also playing Madden.  I don't remember the details.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Sort of. It can still be restructured by the acquiring team, I believe. 
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Oh, it's not really a problem for a trade but I think that was why they (probably mainly HOU) wanted it done before today.  It would have been done last year if he wasn't being sued so not getting it done by today, with all of the lawsuits still out there, doesn't surprise me at all.

 
Birdie048 said:
I thought I read his $35M is not guaranteed until March 20.  

There is different language is several contracts, but his was identified as March 20 not the start of the season.  
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His 2023 salary and roster bonus become fully guaranteed on March 20th. Texans had to be under the cap with his $35M salary counting today. However since it’s all salary it’s just a placeholder on the cap until games start and it gets paid. He can be traded at any time and the new team assumes the entire $35M salary which they can then restructure to a bonus to spread that cap hit out to future years.

Presumably his new team wants to acquire him before the 20th to restructure his future payouts before the new guarantee kicks in.

 
Guessing part of this is Watson seeing what teams are including in their trade package and reacting accordingly.  He may not want certain players included. 

 
Doug B said:
Does following betting lines ever pan out?

Not a bettor, so I don't know if this kind of thing is bettor-driven line manipulation or something going on from the book's end.
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Pointsbetusa isn’t a big enough anything to have this kind of info. They are likely hedging their money so they don’t get caught at 50-1 if he picks the Saints. 

 
Buckna said:
His 2023 salary and roster bonus become fully guaranteed on March 20th. Texans had to be under the cap with his $35M salary counting today. However since it’s all salary it’s just a placeholder on the cap until games start and it gets paid. He can be traded at any time and the new team assumes the entire $35M salary which they can then restructure to a bonus to spread that cap hit out to future years.

Presumably his new team wants to acquire him before the 20th to restructure his future payouts before the new guarantee kicks in.
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Right. The easiest way to think of it is, any money actually paid to the player has to hit the cap of the team who paid it.

So if the Texans cut Deshaun, and have guaranteed salary left they have to pay, it would hit their cap.

But if they trade him, the guaranteed salary is going to be paid in weekly game checks by his new team, and so that money would go to their cap.

"Guaranteed" doesn't cause a change in which team gets the cap hit.  The team who actually transferred the money into his account always gets the hit.

 
Faust said:
https://twitter.com/andrewbrandt/status/1504205271119323150?s=21
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Well, considering how long it's been, the NFL would have to be pretty inept to not know what they are going to do right now, especially knowing there is no criminal charges.

Also IMO the easiest thing for the NFL to do would be no suspension.  At least that way they can say they didnt find anything factual to warrant suspension as opposed to trying to explain why they gave him 4-6-8.......games

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Well, considering how long it's been, the NFL would have to be pretty inept to not know what they are going to do right now, especially knowing there is no criminal charges.

Also IMO the easiest thing for the NFL to do would be no suspension.  At least that way they can say they didnt find anything factual to warrant suspension as opposed to trying to explain why they gave him 4-6-8.......games
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I'm guessing they will go with the 6-game personal conduct policy violation like they did with Zeke. I don't see the optics where they ignore 22 complaints from women and don't do anything. They gave Big Ben 6 games and reduced it to four over two allegations. But that was 12 years ago and the climate has changed a lot since then.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Well, considering how long it's been, the NFL would have to be pretty inept to not know what they are going to do right now, especially knowing there is no criminal charges.
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Again, criminal charges are irrelevant. If it violates the league’s personal conduct policy, he’ll be suspended.

it’s not based on criminal investigation or the GJ, but rather the league’s own internal investigation.

I agree that any team signing him know’s how long it is. 

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Well, considering how long it's been, the NFL would have to be pretty inept to not know what they are going to do right now, especially knowing there is no criminal charges.

Also IMO the easiest thing for the NFL to do would be no suspension.  At least that way they can say they didnt find anything factual to warrant suspension as opposed to trying to explain why they gave him 4-6-8.......games
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We see this completely differently. I think there’s no way the league doesn’t suspend him for at least 6 games. The blowback alone makes that almost required. They can easily explain the suspension as personal conduct. 

 
-OZ- said:
We see this completely differently. I think there’s no way the league doesn’t suspend him for at least 6 games. The blowback alone makes that almost required. They can easily explain the suspension as personal conduct. 
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Agreed. I would be surprised at a short suspension and would not be surprised at 1 year. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Again, criminal charges are irrelevant. If it violates the league’s personal conduct policy, he’ll be suspended.

it’s not based on criminal investigation or the GJ, but rather the league’s own internal investigation.

I agree that any team signing him know’s how long it is. 
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What I mean is, they have likely known for a while what if any suspension there would be if there was no criminal charges, but they had to wait for that.

Also, which FACTUAL piece of information violates the leagues personal conduct policy?

 
-OZ- said:
We see this completely differently. I think there’s no way the league doesn’t suspend him for at least 6 games. The blowback alone makes that almost required. They can easily explain the suspension as personal conduct. 
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If they give him 6 games, that means they believe him to have committed some of these incredibly ridiculous and horrible things, and are then saying "yeah basically rape is 6 games for us".

As opposed to saying they have no factual evidence to suspend.

 
BigJim® said:
Credibly?
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1. If the NFL investigation determined that the women’s stories were corroborated, that a credible accusation.

2. They are still suing him civilly. There must be evidence of wrongdoing. 

3. There was enough evidence to go to a grand jury, regardless of outcome.

Believing women is a good way to not sound like a misogynist. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
1. If the NFL investigation determined that the women’s stories were corroborated, that a credible accusation.

2. They are still suing him civilly. There must be evidence of wrongdoing. 

3. There was enough evidence to go to a grand jury, regardless of outcome.

Believing women is a good way to not sound like a misogynist. 
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Theres so much wrong with this post I wouldn't even know where to begin, so I wont.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Theres so much wrong with this post I wouldn't even know where to begin, so I wont.
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Everything I posted is correct. Sorry if you don’t like how reality works.

Watson will be suspended for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. 22 women are alleging that he assaulted them and are currently suing him civilly.

maybe you don’t like it. You don’t have to. But you have to accept it. Because it’s what’s happening. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
1. If the NFL investigation determined that the women’s stories were corroborated, that a credible accusation.

2. They are still suing him civilly. There must be evidence of wrongdoing. 

3. There was enough evidence to go to a grand jury, regardless of outcome.

Believing women is a good way to not sound like a misogynist. 
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1. Anything premised with ‘if’ defies conclusive word.

2. A civil filing is not ‘evidence of wrongdoing’ and requires no evidence of anything. It’s an allegation.

3. You can’t really use an apple to conclude on the orange. It could have been brought to grand jury for PR cover alone. What we do know is the GJ only wanted to hear from one, ONE, of the accusers in attendance before deciding against probable cause.

Just to be clear, I’m not saying they are not credible. I find it a curious word. Words like that have meaning.

 
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